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Basics ofDisaster Risk Assessment
Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners
8 11 December 2012
Tagaytay City
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Scope/CoveragePart I: Disasters, Climate Change and
Development
Module 1. Interrelationship of Disasters,Climate Change and Development
Part II: Disaster Risk Management
Module 2. Hazard 101: Geologic HazardsModule 3. Hazard 102: Hydro-meteorologic
Hazards
Module 4. NDRRMC Policies/Plans. Framework
and Action Plan/s
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Part III: Climate Change and AdaptationModule 5. Basics of Climate Change andClimate Change Projections
Module 6. Policies/Plans. Strategies/frameworkand NCCAP
Part IV: Climate/Disaster RiskAssessment and MainstreamingTools
Module 7. Basics of Disaster Risk Assessment
Module 8. Climate Change Sectoral Vulnerabilityand Adaptation Assessment
Module 9. DRR/CCA Mainstreaming intoDevelopment Planning
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1. Introduction
2. Theoretical framework3. DRA: from theory to practice
4. DRR/DRM
Outline:
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Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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7/92Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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8/92Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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9/92Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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Estimated Damage of Disasters(In M PhP @ 2000 Prices)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83
19 8 4 19 8 5 19 8 6 19 8 7 19 8 8 19 89 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7
19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
On the average, annual direct damage is P15 B
Pinatubo Eruption(1991)
15 disasters(1978)
Droughts(1984; 1987)
1.2% of GDP
0.9% of GDP
Luzon Earthquake(1990)
For typhoons, average of 0.5% of GDP every year
Source: NEDA
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No. of deaths, injuries and affected
persons, 1980-2006
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Deaths 5,220 17,249 8,555
Injured 19,315 15,166 6,201
Af fected ('000
persons)
13,713 68,911 42,543
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006
Source: NEDA
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TheoreticalFramework
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Hazard is the potential to cause harm.
A threatening event, or the probability of occurrenceof a potentially damaging phenomenon, within a giventime period and area that may cause loss of life orinjury, property damage, social and economicdisruption or environmental degradation or a
combination of these. (NEDA Guideline)A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activityor condition that may cause loss of life, injury or otherhealth impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoodand services, social and economic disruption, orenvironmental damage. (PDRRM Act)
Hazard
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RiskRisk is the likelihood of an adverseeffect, direct or indirect, on human
health and welfare.As a technical term,risk shall be expressed as acombination of frequency (or probability), and theconsequence of a specific hazardous event. It should be
noted that in some literatures, the expression of riskincludes the severity of damage or adverse result thatcould be in terms of fatality, or injury, or cost of propertyloss per unit of time.
Risk is the combination of the probability of an eventand its negative consequences. (PDRRM Act)
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Vulnerability degree to which a system is susceptible to,or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability isa function of the character, magnitude and rate of climatechange and variation to which a system is exposed, itssensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. (CC Act)
Vulnerability characteristics and circumstances of acommunity, system or asset that make it susceptible to the
damaging effects of a hazard. Vulnerability may arise fromvarious physical, economic and environmental factors suchas poor design and construction of buildings, inadequateprotection of assets, lack of public information andawareness, limited official recognition of risks and
preparedness measures, and disregard for wiseenvironmental management. (PDRRM Act)
Vulnerability
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VulnerabilityVulnerability generally refers toconditions which define how elements
exposed to risk are affected by a hazard. Sectoral vulnerability
Physical vulnerability
Economic vulnerability
Social vulnerability
Environmental vulnerability
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Natural disaster when a natural hazardcayses serious disruption, causing human,
material, economic or environmental lossesthat exceed the ability to cope of thoseaffected.
A serious disruption of the functioning of a
community or a society involving widespreadhuman, material, economic or environmentallosses or impacts which exceed the ability ofthe affected community or society to cope
using its own resources. (CC Act/PDRRM Act)
Disaster
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Safety riskslow probability, high consequence, accidental, acute (humansafety focus)
Health riskshigh probability, low consequence, ongoing, chronic (humanhealth focus)
Ecological/environmental riskssubtle changes, complex interactions, long latency, macroimpacts (habitat/ecosystem focus)
Public welfare/goodwill risks
Financial risks
Disaster risks
Climate risks
Types of risks
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Target population
Individual RiskSocietal Risk
ControlVoluntary Risk
Involuntary Risk
Risk classification
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Effects
ChronicAcute
FrequencyAccidental
Routine
Risk classification
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Involuntary/Voluntary
Immediate/Delayed Direct/Indirect
Catastrophic/Random Control
Dread/Familiar
Factors affecting risk perception
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Conflict
Nuclear/chemical/biological weapons
Landmines/unexploded ordnance
Displacement
IndustryIndustrial accidents
Industrial wastes
Transport Oil spills
Agriculture and
unsustainable
resources
management
Overfishing
Overgrazing
Deforestation
Forest fires
Pest invasion
Desertification
Sea level rise/coastal erosion
Climatic
Droughts
Floods
Typhoons
Landslides
Geologic/
Tectonic
Tsunamis
Earthquakes
Volcanic eruptions
Man-made
Natural
Climatechange
Geographical
impacts
Local
Regional
Global
Timescale
Sudden
Slow/
continuous
Irreversible
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What can go wrong?How bad are the effects ifsomething does go wrong?How often do these incidentsoccur?
Risk Assessment
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Hazard CharacterizationHazard identification
Hazard inventory
Frequency Analysis
Probability of occurrence
Return period/frequency
Temporal probability
Time of occurrence
Vulnerability probability
Relative damage
Probability of injury/fatality
Risk Estimation/Calculation
Risk = consequence frequency
Consequence Analysis
Elements at risk
Property
Support infrastructures (e.g., roads)
Services
PeopleSpatial Vulnerability
Extent/scope of impact
Impact areas/zones
Development of OptionsAvoid / Accept Risk
Reduce likelihood (probability)
Reduce consequence
Risk EvaluationCompare to level of tolerability or
acceptable risk criteria
Implement, Monitor, Review and
Evaluate
RiskAnalysis
RiskAssessment
RiskManagement
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High Risk
Negligible risk
Unacceptable region
The ALARP or Tolerability
region
(Risk is undertaken only if
a benefit is desired)
Broadly acceptable region
(No need for detailed working to
demonstrate ALARP)
Risk cannot be justified
save in extraordinary
circumstances
Tolerable only if risk reduction isimpracticable or if it cost is grossly
disproportionate to the improvementgained
Tolerable if cost of reduction wouldexceed the improvement
Necessary to maintain assurance
that risk remains at this level
Risk Criteria/Acceptability
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TYPES OF HAZARD
Smoking (20 cigarettes per day)Drinking alcohol
Swimming
Playing rugby football
Owning firearms
Travelling by motor vehicle
Travelling by train
Travelling by aeroplane
Cancer from all causes
Air pollution from burning coal to generate electricity
Being at home
Accidental falls
Pedestrians struck by motor vehicles
Homicide
Accidental poisoning
Fires and accidental burnsElectrocution (non industrial)
Falling objects
Therapeutic use of drugs
Cataclysmic storms and storm floods
Lightning strikes
Meteorite strikes
RISK OF DEATH
(chance in a million per year)
5,000380
50
30
30
145
30
10
1,800
0.07 300
110
60
35
20
18
103
3
2
0.2
0.1
0.0010.03
0.19
Risk of Fatality for Various Activities
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Smoking 1.4 cigarettes
Spending 1 hour in a coal mine
Living 2 days in New York or Boston
Travelling 300 miles by car
Travelling 10 miles by bicycle
Flying 1000 miles by jet
Living 2 months in Denver on vacation from New York
Living 2 months with cigarette smokerOne chest x-ray taken in a good hospital
Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter
Drinking 30 12-oz cans of diet soda
Risk of accident by living within 5 miles of nuclear reactor for 50
years
Cancer, heart disease
Black lung disease
Air pollution
Accident
Accident
Accident
Cancer caused by cosmic radiation
Cancer, heart diseaseCancer caused by radiation
Liver cancer caused by aflatoxin
Cancer caused by saccharin
Cancer caused by radiation
Activity/exposure Type of Risk
ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A MILLIONINCREMENTAL RISK OF DEATH IN A YEAR
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LSIR Fatality Risk Contour per Year,Combined Facility (Base Scenario)
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Societal Risks(all events;
USA)
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Societal Risk
Results
(Base
Scenario)
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From theory topractice
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x7.0 ML
Event Vulnerability
0
0.0005
0.001
0.0015
0.002
0.0025
0.003
0.0035
10 100 1000 10000 100000
Return Period considered (years)
Risk-AnnualDamagePercentage
Mean+1SDcummulativeriskMeancummulativeriskMean-1SDcummulativerisk
Casualties
Macro-Economic
Cost / Recovery
Indirect Loss
Direct Loss
Community Profiles
System Models
Geospatial DatabaseRecovery of
disrupted CI
asset function
(% over time)
Hazard
Models
Earthquake, Wind,
Tsunami, Flood,Blast, Plume, etc
CI damage
state estimates
Physical
Environment
affected
Injuries,
Fatalities,
Medical costs
Real GRP,
Consumption,
Employment,
Investment
Impact
footprintover time
Built
Environment
People
Buildings
Infrastructure
Age, Income,
Employment,
Activity, etc
Estimated
capital
stock losses
Business
resilience Estimatedproductivity
lossesDisruption induced
financial costs &
revenue lossesPopulation affected
Business
Residential
Estimated
losses
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Administrative Order No. 1(17 September 2010)
Directing the localgovernment units,
particularly provinces, toadopt and use in theirplanning activities theguidelines onmainstreaming disasterrisk reduction (DRR) insubnationaldevelopment and landuse/physical planning
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Hazard
RiskNatural Risk
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Natural Risk
Hazard
Risk
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Natural Risk
Hazard
Risk
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Hazard CharacterizationHazard identification
Hazard inventory
Frequency Analysis
Probability of occurrence
Return period/frequency
Temporal probability
Time of occurrence
Vulnerability probability
Relative damage
Probability of injury/fatality
Risk Estimation/Calculation
Risk = consequence frequency
Consequence Analysis
Elements at risk
Property
Support infrastructures (e.g., roads)
Services
PeopleSpatial Vulnerability
Extent/scope of impact
Impact areas/zones
Development of OptionsAvoid / Accept Risk
Reduce likelihood (probability)
Reduce consequence
Risk EvaluationCompare to level of tolerability or
acceptable risk criteria
Implement, Monitor, Review and
Evaluate
RiskAnalysis
RiskAssessment
RiskManagement
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HazardCharactization
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Flood Hazard Map (Sanaa, Yemen)
Source: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Studies in Yemen. WB-GFDRR.
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Source: Probabilistic seismic hazard map for Romania as a basis for a new building code. L. Ardeleanu et al. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5,679684, 2005 (European Geosciences Union)
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Source: NAMRIA
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Frequency Analysis
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FAULT TREEEXAMPLE
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Source: W. K. Kong. Risk Assessment of Slopes (Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology & Hydrogeology; August 2002; v. 35; no. 3; p. 213-222). GeologicalSociety of London. 2002
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Source: Powerpoint presentation. Study Mission to Geosciences Australia (November 2009)
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Basic Procedure
Determine potentially
affected population orproperty
Select/Assign potential Estimate fatality/damage
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High Risk
Negligible risk
Unacceptable region
The ALARP or Tolerability
region
(Risk is undertaken only if
a benefit is desired)
Broadly acceptable region
(No need for detailed working to
demonstrate ALARP)
Risk cannot be justified
save in extraordinary
circumstances
Tolerable only if risk reduction isimpracticable or if it cost is grossly
disproportionate to the improvementgained
Tolerable if cost of reduction wouldexceed the improvement
Necessary to maintain assurance
that risk remains at this level
Risk Criteria/Acceptability
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Risk PrioritizationRisk Level Description
Very high risk10-2
Extensive detailed investigation needed and implementation of
options essential to reduce risk to acceptable levels; may be too
expensive and not practicable.
High risk10-3
Detailed investigation, planning and implementation of options
required to reduce risk to acceptable levels.
Moderate risk10-4
Tolerable, provided plan is implemented to maintain or reduce
risks. May require investigation and planning of options.
Low risk10-5
Usually accepted. Treatment requirements and responsibility to
be defined to maintain or reduce risk.
Very low risk10-6
Acceptable. Manage by normal slope maintenance procedures.
Source: Adapted from Tonkin & Taylor Ltd., Natural Hazard Management Research Report
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Risk Prioritization
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DRA Steps
Earthquake &
related
hazards
Volcanic
hazardsFlood
Rainfall-
induced
landslide
Storm surge
Hazard
characterizationyes yes yes yes yes
Source of maps READY project(susceptibility
map)
REDAS
(scenario map)
READY project
(susceptibility
map)
PHIVOLCS maps
READY project
(susceptibility
map)
MGB maps
(1:50,000)
PAGASA
(1:10,000
selected areas
only)
READY project
(susceptibility
map)
MGB maps
(1:50,000)
READY project
(susceptibility
map)
NAMRIA (1:????)
Type ofcharacterization
Single event
hazard
Single event
hazard
Multiple event
hazard:
Frequent, Likely,
and Rare
Multiple event
hazard:
Frequent, Likely,
and Rare
Single event
hazard:
Frequent only
Parameters Spatial extent
Barangay/Area affected
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DRA StepsEarthquake &
related
hazards
Volcanic
hazardsFlood
Rainfall-induced
landslide
Storm surge
Frequency
analysis
no no yes yes yes
Trigger event --- --- Rainfall Rainfall Tropical cyclone
Type ofcharacterization
--- --- Multiple eventhazard:
Frequent, Likely,
and Rare
Multiple eventhazard:
Frequent, Likely,
and Rare
Single eventhazard:
Frequent only
Climate change no no Yes Yes ---
Unit of measure --- --- Events per year Events per year Events per year
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DRA Steps
Earthquake &
relatedhazards
Volcanic
hazards Flood
Rainfall-
inducedlandslide
Storm surge
Consequence
analysis
yes yes yes yes yes
Coverage Fatalities
Building and structures
Critical infrastructures and lifeline services
Agriculture, fishery and forestry (AFF)
Exposure data
(potentially
affected
element)
Fatality:
Base + boundary + density = population
exposure map
Population density by barangay (alternative
process: data point, e.g., CBMS, HH plot map)
Unit of measure = # of people
Building and structures:
Base + boundary + land use map = structure
exposure map
Floor area (alternative process: data point, e.g.,
CBMS, HH plot map)
Unit value (construction or building cost per floor
area)
Unit of measure = floor area + value
Critical infrastructures and lifeline services: Base + boundary + land use map =
infrastructure exposure map
Point (e.g., school, hospital) and line (e.g.,
roads) data
Construction cost per measure (e.g., length,
floor area)
Unit of measure = #/length + value
Agriculture, fishery and forestry:Base + boundary + land use map = AFF exposure
map
Land area (categorized by principal/dominant crop
+ forest area)
Re-planting, re-stocking or reforestation cost
Unit of measure = land area + value
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DRA StepsEarthquake &
related
hazards
Volcanic
hazardsFlood
Rainfall-induced
landslide
Storm surge
Risk estimation no no yes yes yes
Fatality --- --- Fatality per year
Property
damage
--- --- PhP per year:
1. Buildings and structures
2. Infrastructure
3. Crop and vegetation
4. Total damage
Risk
prioritization
no no Rating:
Urgent
Top priority
Low priority
Scoring based on criteria (fatality or value)
Composite score = sum of risk scores
Risk evaluation Comparison with other
hazards only
Vulnerability analysis as individual
Vulnerability analysis as community
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Ascertaining Risk Issues and Concerns
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Planning Considerations
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Test validity of key strategies
given the risks identified:
key settlements shall have
major urban functions and
roles dispersal of socio-
economic activities to
identified growth nodes
emergence of new cities &
urban areas
Provide extra incentives to
investments locating in
preferred areas for
agriculture, industrial and
tourism
Strengthen backward &forward linkages thru efficient
physical & economic access
between raw material source
& processing areas and
production & market access
Enhancing Planning Decisions
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Issues/Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects
Low incomes,
lack of livelihood
opportunities
Increase
incomes/
livelihood
opportunities
Provide
employment to
xx families in
yy areas.
Encourage export
competitive industries
Export infrastructure
program
Port repair project
(to reduce handling
costs)
Regional highwayproject (to support
export market)
Skills training for
export productivity
program
Training for
productivity project
in yy areas
Provide microfinance Microfinance
program
Pilot micro-finance
project
High dropout rate
for elementary
school
Decrease
elementary
dropout rate
Improve
school
retention in yy
areas.
Improve physical
access to schools
Road to school
improvement program
Build/repair school
access road project
Classroom building
program in yy areas
Classroom constn
in yy areas
Provide subsidy for
poor students
Subsidized school
lunch program
Subsidized school
lunch project in yy
areas
Lack of affordable
housing Provideaffordablehousing
Provide
affordable
housing for xx
house-holds
Provide access to
new housing sites
New housing road
access program
Access road
construction project
Improve sites/
services in yy areas
CMP program in yy
areas
CMP project in yy
areas
Private sector-led
development of
affordable housing
Land titling and
admini-stration
program
Land titling project
in yy areas
Source: Table 22, page 111 of PDPFP Vol.2
Enhancing Planning Decisions
Issues/ Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects
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Issues/ Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects
Urban encroach-
ment into prime
agricultural lands
Mitigate
indiscriminate
land conversion;
protect selected
agricultural land
Prevent
unnecessary land
conversion in yy
areas
Encourage urban
expansion to
environment-tally
compatible areas
Urban expansion
road program
Access road
constn project
Review and
update land use
plans and zoning
Updated land use
plans and zoning
for yy areas
Improve agri
incomes to dis-
courage conversion
Agricultural
productivity
program
Agricultural
productivity
research project
Flooding Protect
communities in
flood prone areas
Protect xx
households in yy
areasProtect and
rehabilitate
watershed
Watershed
rehabilitation
program
Tree planting
project in yy areas
Production forest
project in yy areas
Provide protective
infrastructure
Flood control
program
Retention pond
and dike project
Relocate or
discourage
settlement in
flood-prone areas
Provide alternative
livelihood for
residents of flood-
prone areas
Alternative
livelihood program
for flood prone
communities
Port expansion
project (accommo-
date families in
flood prone areas)
Environmentaldegradation
Curb environ-mental
degradation
Significantlyreduce industrial
discharge into yy
areas
Implement existinganti-pollution
regulations
Bantay kalikasanprogram
Environmentpolice project in yy
areas
Legislation higher
pollution penalties
Encourage use of
environment friendly
technology
Green technology
program
Reduced tariffs on
green technology
equipment
Source: Table 23, page 112 of PDPFP Vol.2
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Actions can be grouped into six broad categories:
1. Prevention. Government administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence
the way land and buildings are developed and built. Examples include planning and zoning,
building codes, capital improvement programs, open space preservation, and
storm water management regulations.
2. Property Protection. Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures
to protect them from a hazard, or removal from the hazard area.
Examples include acquisition, elevation, relocation, structural retrofits, storm shutters,
and shatter-resistant glass.3. Public Education and Awareness. Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials,
and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Such actions
include outreach projects, real estate disclosure, hazard information centers, and
school-age and adult education programs.
4. Natural Resource Protection. Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses,
also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. These actions include sediment
and erosion control, stream corridor restoration, watershed management, forest andvegetation management, and wetland restoration and preservation.
5. Emergency Services. Actions that protect people and property during and immediately
after a disaster or hazard event. Services include warning systems, emergency response
services, and protection of critical facilities.
6. Structural Projects. Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the
impact of a hazard. Such structures include dams, levees, floodwalls, seawalls, etc.
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and good day.