Mulya Energy-01

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The IEO Projection of Energy Concumption in The Developing

Countries and Challenges for Nuclear Energy Planning

in Indonesia

*Mulya JuarsaDepartment of Fundamental Energy Science

Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University

Email :[email protected]

Abstract

International Energy Outlook 2002 was projected that in developing countries from 1999 to

2020 energy consumption will be increase including electricity demand. And nuclear power

growth is expected increase from 8% in 1999 and 19% in 2020. Indonesia with economy

dependence on fossil power plants and by the government intends to expand current installed

electric power now from 14 GW to 36 GW in 2030 through the use of another energy sources,

including nuclear power as a last alternative energy source.

Keywords : Nuclear Energy, Consumption, Developing Countries, Indonesia

1. Introduction

1.1. Background

Indonesia is the worlds fourth most populated country with a population of 228.4million in 2001. At 1999 total energy consumption is 1.0% of world total energy consumption(3.6 quadrillion Btu) and energy-related Carbon emission is 1.1% of world total Carbonemission (64.3 million metric tons of Carbon) .[nn] In furtherance of Indonesias powersupply diversification policy and to address environmental concerns related to over relianceon fossil fuels. And from IEO 2002, world carbon dioxide emission is projected to rise from6.1 billion metric tons carbon equivalent in 1999 to 7.9 billion metric tons per year in 2010and 9.9 billion metric tons per year in 2020. Developing countries alone account of 77% ofthe projected increment in carbon dioxide emissions between year 1990 and 2010 and 72%between year 1990 and 2020.

In electricity sector, recently Indonesia has installed generating capacity estimated at21.4 GW, with 84% coming from thermal (oil, gas and coal) sources and 16% from sourceslikes hydropower and geothermal. During the next decade Indonesia forecasts that the peakelectric power demand on the Java-Bali grid will increase by over 15,000 MW and thegreatest part of

* Bidang Analisis dan Mitigasi Kecelakaan, Pusbang.Teknologi Keselamatan Nuklir (P2TKN)BATAN

ISSN 0918-7685

pg. 33-45

Proceeding Temu Ilmiah XI, 2002
mailto:[email protected]


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this will be adding from coal-fired generating capacity of about 13,000 MW. And about 2000MW will be adding from another energy sources. Currently, Indonesias economy mostlydependent on fossil power plants likes coal and oil. And environmental benefit of NuclearPower Plant (NPP) is excellent reason to introduce it to Indonesia, in the sense that NPP does

not emit greenhouse gas, especially on Kyoto Protocol.

1.2. Purposes

The aim of this paper is to discuss the recent condition of Indonesia nuclear energyprogram concerning on energy consumption in the developing countries which was projectedby International Energy Outlook 2001 and 2002. With concerned the situation of energy inIndonesia. Including the expectation of nuclear energy will reduce the dependence on fossilfuel power, economize energy utilization, and to support environmental program by applyingclean-energy technology.

2. Energy Consumption

Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in expected in the developing countries inthe reference case forecast (Fig.1).

In particular, energy demand in developing Asia and Central and South Africa isprojected to more than double between 1999 and 2020. From about 122 quadrillion Btu up toabout 260 quadrillion Btu. Worldwide energy use grows from about 382 quadrillion Btu in1999 to 611.5 quadrillion in 2020, and effected to emission gas from energy used. Shown inTable 1,



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Table1. Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions by Region, 1990-2020

REGION

Energy Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

(Million Metric Tons Carbon

Equivalent)

1990 1999 2010 2020 1990 1999 2010 2020

Industrialized 182.7 209.7 246.6 277.8 2,849 3,129 3,692 4,169

EE/FSU . 76.3 50.4 61.8 73.4 1,337 810 978 1,139

Developing

Asia . 51.0 70.9 113.9 162.2 1,053 1,361 2,139 3,017Middle East 13.1 19.3 26.3 34.8 231 330 439 566

Africa .. 9.3 11.8 15.7 20.3 179 218 287 365

Central and South America 13.7 19.8 28.3 43.1 178 249 377 595

Total Developing - - - - - - - - - - - 87.2 121.8 184.1 260.3 1,641 2,158 3,241 4,542

Total World ================= 346.2 381.9 492.6 611.5 5,827 6,097 7,910 9,850

Sources :History : 1990 and 1999: EIA, International Energy Annual 1999, DOE/EIA-0219(99) (Washington,DC, February 2001). Projections : EIA, World Energy Projection System (2002).

And if we considering the prediction of world energy consumption by fuel type from 1999 to

2020 (see Fig.2)



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World oil consumption is projected to increase by 2.3% annually over 21-year projectionperiod, from 75 million barrels per day in 1999 to 120 million barrels per day in 2020.Developing countries are expected to consume almost the same amount of oil asindustrialized countries.

The gas share of total energy consumption is projected to increase from 23% in 1999 to28% in 2020, and natural gas is expected to account for the largest increment in electricitygeneration. Gas use in the developing countries is projected to grow at a faster rate thanany other fuel category in an average 5.2% per year, compared to 3.7% for oil and 3.1 %for coal.

Coals share of total energy consumption is projected to fall slightly in the IEO referencecase, from 22% in 1999 to 19% in 2002. Only a slight loss from its historical share isexpected, because large increases in energy use are projected for the developing Asia,especially China and India.

In the case of Nuclear power, in the IEO2001 reference case, worldwide nuclear capacityis projected to increase to 365 GW in 2010, then begin to decline, falling to 351 GW in2020. Most of the growth in nuclear capacity is expected to occur in developing world(particularly in developing Asia).

Renewable energy use is expected to increase by 53% between 1999 and 2020.Hydroelectric and other renewable energy consumption is projected grow by 4.0% peryear in developing Asia.

3. Electricity Consumption

Worldwide electricity consumption is projected to increase at an average annual rate of2.7% from 1999 to 2020. The most rapid growth is projected for developing Asia, at 4.5% per

year, and by 2020 developing Asia is expected to consume more than twice as muchelectricity as it did in 1999. The projection for electricity consumption in the developingcountries depend primarily on assumption with regard to growth in population and per capitaincome.

In several nations of developing Asia, electricity pools or transmission interlink ages arebeing developed to provide better capacity management and to facilitate trade excess power.China, Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand have announced plans todevelop national electric pools.

In 1999, coal provided 34% of the energy used for electricity generation throughout theworld (Figure 4). Coal is expected to about 31% in 2020. Nuclear power accounted for 17%in 1999 and fall to 12% in 2020. Gas is 19% in 1999 and increase to 21% in 2020. Therenewable energy increase from 20% in 1999 to 21% in 2020..



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Figure 4. Fuel Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 1995, 1999, 2010, and 2020.

Total percent of all world regions, Asia is expected to show the most robust rate ofgrowth in electricity consumption over the forecast period. Electricity demand in developingAsian nations is expected to grow by an average of 4.5% per year between 1999 and 2020.Developing Asia accounted for 18% of worldwide electricity consumption in 1999 and by2020 its expected to account for 26%.

4. Nuclear Energy in Developing Asia

Nuclear power plants generated electricity in 30 countries in 2000. A total of 438 powerreactors were in operation (Figure 5), including 104 units in US, 59 units in France, and 53units in Japan. Energy from nuclear power first started to become a major source ofelectricity in the early 1970s, and from 1970 to 1980 world consumption of energy fromnuclear power grew by about 700% (Figure 6). However, in 1979 in Pensylvania USA, thenuclear power plant accident at Three Mile Island, then accident in the Soviet UnionsChernobyl plant in 1986. The growth in nuclear energy use worldwide slowed to about 200%in the 1980s, and in the 1990s it fell to roughly 20%. Recently, on September 30, 1999,Japans worst nuclear accident occurred at nuclear facilities in Tokaimura. Then from nuclearpower accounted 16% of the worlds total energy supply in 1999 and is projected to fall to

12% in 2020.In the IEO2002 reference case, nuclear energy use is projected to the total increase from

1999 to 2020 is 8%. In case of Japan, the nuclear share of Japans total electricity generationis projected to increase from 33% in 1999 to 38% in 2020.

36.60%36.60%36.60%36.60% 34.10%34.10%34.10%34.10% 33.40%33.40%33.40%33.40% 30.90%30.90%30.90%30.90%

20.20%20.20%20.20%20.20% 20.70%20.70%20.70%20.70% 20.60%20.60%20.60%20.60%

17.70%17.70%17.70%17.70% 18.80%18.80%18.80%18.80% 22.20%22.20%22.20%22.20% 26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%

16.50%16.50%16.50%16.50% 17.00%17.00%17.00%17.00% 14.60%14.60%14.60%14.60% 12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%

9.60%9.60%9.60%9.60% 9.90%9.90%9.90%9.90% 9.10%9.10%9.10%9.10% 10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%

19.70%19.70%19.70%19.70%

1995 1999 2010 2020

Oil

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

Coal



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In contrast to the industrialized countries, the developing countries is expected to morethan double its nuclear generation capacity by 2020, when in 1999 the developing countriesaccounted for 6% of the worlds nuclear electricity generation, but by 2020 its projected toaccount for about 15%.

And the numbers of nuclear power in Asia including research reactor is presented on table 2.



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Table 2. Nuclear Power in Asia, and Nuclear Fuel Cycle

countriesPower Reactors in

Operation

Power Reactors

Under

Construction

Power Reactors

Planned or

Proposed

Research

Reactors

Australia 1

Japan 54 3 12 17+1

S. Korea 17 3 8 2

N. Korea 2 1

China 11 8 8 17

India 14 6 7 5

Pakistan 2 1 1

Indonesia 1 3

Philippines 1

Thailand 1+1

Vietnam 1 1

Bangladesh 1

Malaysia 1

Total 98 22 39 56*

5. Situation of Energy Consumption in Indonesia

5.1. Indonesias Energy

Due to Indonesia's volcanic geology, much geothermal energy can be found close to thesurface. Some of the country's many volcanoes release more energy than a large nuclear plant.Even when discounting deeper geothermal sources and taking into account only those close tothe surface, sufficient energy is available to sustain the energy demand. However, there is oneproblem: the transport of the energy from it is source to the locations were it is needed.Long-range transport of hot water is impossible, but it can be used on the spot. In fact, theproblem is the centralized demand of electricity in the big cities, contrary to the remotegeothermal locations, most of them without connections to the electric power system.



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Indonesia is extremely fortunate to have vast and various energy sources including oil,natural gas, coal, hydro power and thermal power (Figure 7). These energy sources aresufficient not only to fulfill the domestic needs (Indonesia) but also for export needs.

Figure 7. Primary Energy Supply in Indonesia, 1990 and 1998.

Energy consumption in Indonesia has increased rapidly over the last 25 years,reaching an average of nearly 7% per year. Because of rapid population growth, and changesin the structure of production and the economy, energy demands will quickly increase in theyears to come, especially in the transport and electricity sectors (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Energy Consumption in Indonesia, 1990 and 1998.

Primary energy consumption is on the increase in Indonesia in parallel with industrialactivities (Figure 9). Even though energy growth was slightly stagnant or decreased due to theeconomic crisis since July 1997 with GDP around US$1,050/capita/year falling to US$300 in1998. However, the growth is increasing in parallel with rise in economical indicators. GDP isexpected to be around US$600 this year.



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Figure 9. Energy Consumption by sectors in Indonesia, 1990 and 1998.

5.2. Energy Policy

Since 1997, energy policy is based on a new vision; energy development, i.e. energyresources dominated by non-renewable fuels is not an unlimited resource that we canconsume as much as we want, so we have to consume energy as efficiently as possible.Basically Indonesia's Energy Policy is:

Diversify energy. Do not depend on fossil resources, but base energy use on an optimummix to avoid over-exploitation in the short term.

Intensive energy exploration to provide new energy resources for local demand. Energy conservation and efficiency. Energy pricing, and Energy development with consideration for the environment.5.3. Renewable Energy

Renewable energy development is not as high as expected, but there are some renewableenergy development projects:

Solar Photovoltaic is around 150kW, installed in many places. Micro-Hydro in small installed capacity Wind turbine in small installed capacity (the biggest is several 100kW turbine developedin Nusa Tenggara Timur.) Geothermal: Indonesia is the third biggest producer after USA and the Philippines, from

32.5MW in 1982 to around 1,159MW current installed capacity supplying to the electricutility grid.

Wave energy project still in feasibility study stage at Yogyakarta, in the southern part ofJava.

Wood is Indonesia's primary source of energy; approximately half of the total energyconsumption is furnished by wood. The other half is provided by other conventional,commercial energy resources such as natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, and, increasingly, by

geothermal energy.(3) Indonesia has large and cheap coal reserves, which are only exploited



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on a low scale, because of the shortage of transport facilities in Java. Indonesian coal export isincreasing rapidly. Coal is domestically used for large power plants and production of cement.Indonesia is the world's largest natural gas exporter. The country controls a 40% share of theworld market. Indonesia's oil industry produces 15 million barrels per day of excellent quality

oil. Currently, Indonesias economy mostly dependent on fossil power plants (Figure 10).

Figure 10. Electricity Power Generation in Indonesia, 1980-1998

The percentages of increasing in electricity power generation by : Thermal power (by Oil, Coal and Gas) :

From 6157 GWh in 1980 up to 70,614 GWh in 1998 is about 1147% Hydro power (by water force) :

From 3779 GWh in 1980 up to 10,268 GWh in 1998 is about 272% Geothermal power :

From 31 GWh in 1982 up to 3894 GWh in 1998 is about 1251%

5.4. Present condition of Indonesians electrical situation

The government intends to expand current installed electrical power, now 14,000 MW,to 36,000 MW in 2030. This represents an enormous increase, and it is expected that by 2030,because of the dropping trend of energy prices, no economically profitable oil reserves will beleft. Indonesia, however, could meet its energy demand through the use of geothermal orhydro energy sources.

Indonesia has installed electrical generating capacity estimated at 21.4 gigawatts, with84% coming from thermal (oil, gas, and coal) sources, 14% from hydropower, and 2% fromgeothermal. Before just the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia had plans for a rapid expansion ofpower generation, based mainly on opening up Indonesia's power market to IndependentPower Producers (IPPs). The crisis led to severe financial strains on state-utility Perusahaan

Listrik Negara (PLN), which made it difficult to pay for all of the power for which it had

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

ElectricityGen

eration

[GWh]

Years

ThermalHydroNuclearGeothermalTOTAL



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signed contracts with IPPs. Projects with a combined capacity of about 15,000 MW werecancelled in late 1997, as the Asian financial crisis began.

6. Nuclear Energy for Indonesia

6.1. Condition of Nuclear Energy

Thus far in nuclear field, Indonesia has only a small number of research reactorsprimarily intended for research into and production of agriculturally and medically usedisotopes (Table 3).

Table 3. Unit numbers of Research Reactor in Indonesia

Research Reactor Name Power (MWth) UnitSiwabessy Multiple Reactor, BATAN in Serpong 30 1

Kartini Reactor, BATAN in Jogjakarta 0.1 1

Triga Mark II, BATAN in Bandung 2 1

TOTAL 32.1 3

BATAN, Indonesia-National Nuclear Energy Agency

MWth : Mega Watt Thermal

Indonesia National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) was established since 1964. And

as a research institute under the government, BATAN has a vision and mission on the scienceand technology developing of nuclear energy.

Vision : Leading in South East Asia in realizing the beneficial use of Nuclear Science andTechnology for the welfare of the people based on sound safety philosophy.

Mission : (1) Prepare nuclear policies oriented to the national development. Develop humanpower resources who are expert in the field of nuclear science and technology. (2)Operating nuclear science and development facilities in Indonesia in order to give benefit ineducation, growth in agriculture and industry, as well as the scientific community. (3)Toconduct research, development, and design in nuclear science and technology that can be

usefully promoted for increasing the welfare of the people. (4) To conduct innovation anddissemination of technology independently as well as partnership with other institutionstowards the increase of the national production technology. (5) To strengthen theinstitutional management for increasing the efficiency and productivity.

Almost 38 years BATAN was doing they work, but until recent day, Indonesia is notalready to build Nuclear Power Plant. However, plans have been regularly made to assessusing nuclear power, but before 1990 these received little attention. The main reason for thiswas the preference for other sources of energy. In 1990, the Indonesian Governmentannounced that it would construct twelve 600-MW nuclear power plants to be located on theMuria peninsula on the northern coast of Central Java, near Semarang, the capital of Central



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Java. BATAN on behalf of Indonesian government commissioned a feasibility study for thefirst Indonesian Nuclear Power Plant by NEWJEC, Inc. of Japan to assess the technical andeconomic feasibility of nuclear power for Indonesia. The study was carried out over afive-year period (November 1991-June 1996). The final feasibility study report (FFSR)

published in May 1996 assessed the technical and economic feasibility of implementationIndonesias first nuclear power plant project. This study concluded that nuclear power wastechnically feasible and could generate electricity at cost generally competitive to electricityfrom existing coal-fired power plants.

6.2. Challenges for nuclear energy planning and developing in Indonesia

The future utilization of nuclear power in Indonesia depends also on the ability ofnuclear designers and operators to further improve the competitiveness of NPP while meetingincreasingly stringent safety requirements. Deregulated electricity markets and increasinglycompetitive natural gas mean that NPP must be built in shorter times at lower capital costs

and with simpler and more reliable operation.Indonesia, as a developing country, has been interested in introducing nuclear powerthrough the use of small and medium sized reactors for electricity generation and desalination.For this purposes, balanced and objective information on advanced nuclear technologies fromNPP countries are highly needed. It is obvious that Indonesia has only put limited researchand development funds for nuclear research. Consequently, sharing in the global activities intechnology development and will be very beneficial.

Nuclear power designers from Japan, USA, Canada and Europe have considered Asia astheir current and future market. In spite of this, it should be recognized that recent nuclearproject cancellation and program termination in some countries (i.e. USA, Germany andTaiwan) would be a major obstacle in implementing nuclear energy in developing countries

such as Indonesia.Indonesia is one of those developing countries with significant planning for nuclear

energy program and it has relatively advanced capabilities in nuclear technology among thecountries in South East Asia. But, the multi-crisis has forced the support for nuclear R&Dundergone the reevaluation, and the introduction of nuclear energy can only be accelerated ifthe economy, politic and social conditions are completely restored. With its economy growingat a modest rate, PLN is warning that the country's power surplus could turn to deficit againwithin the next few years, but thus far, there has been little interest on the part of foreigninvestors in new IPP projects.

7. Conclusion

1. Between 1999 and 2020, the IEO projection of energy consumption in developingcountries is expected more then double and projection of nuclear power growth indeveloping countries is expected increase from 8% to 19%.

2. IEO projection of energy consumption by fuel type, especially nuclear power in developingcountries is most of the growth in nuclear capacity is expected.

3. IEO projection of electricity demand in developing Asia accounted for 18% of worldwideelectricity consumption in 1999 and its expected to account 26% in 2020.

4. Indonesia projection of electricity demand by government from 14 GW in 1998 to 36 GW

in 2030. But multi-crisis has changed this projection.



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5. The study feasibility for the first Indonesian Nuclear Power Plant had been done fromNovember 1991 to June 1996 by BATAN and NEWJEC, Japan.

6. The future of the first Nuclear Power Plant in Indonesia just depending on Indonesiaseconomy, politic and social conditions are completely restored.

References

Anung Karyadi, WAHLI Indonesia,

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/spena/energy-net/news/indonesia.htm/.

International Energy Outlook 2002, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/.

M.H. Subkhi, M. Aritomi,An Overview on The Future Trend of Nuclear Energy Application

and Development in Indonesia, Proceeding of 9th

International Conference on NuclearEngineering, Nice Acropolis-France, April 8-12, 2001.

http://www.antenna.nl/wise/beyondbomb/2-3/htm/.

http://www.batan.go.id/batan/index_e.html

http://www.voctech.org.bn/virtual_lib/swisscontact/Energy/Energy.htm/.

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/spena/energy-net/news/indonesia.htm/http://www.ne.jp/asahi/spena/energy-net/news/indonesia.htm/http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/http://www.antenna.nl/wise/beyondbomb/2-3/htm/http://www.antenna.nl/wise/beyondbomb/2-3/htm/http://www.voctech.org.bn/virtual_lib/swisscontact/Energy/Energy.htm/http://www.voctech.org.bn/virtual_lib/swisscontact/Energy/Energy.htm/http://www.voctech.org.bn/virtual_lib/swisscontact/Energy/Energy.htm/http://www.antenna.nl/wise/beyondbomb/2-3/htm/http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/http://www.ne.jp/asahi/spena/energy-net/news/indonesia.htm/

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Mulya Energy-01