Nassim Talib - Heuristics (via Twitter)

7/22/2019 Nassim Talib - Heuristics (via Twitter)

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@mmltlfo`c @phfrlsis, Tucgs, òm Hgurlstlas (@mmgm tf thgLoagrtf)

O@QQLIOLAHFC@Q ]@CGD

L ^rgcumgsLL Afuotgr O`rr`tlvgs

LLL I`ttgrs Fotfcfbla`c

LU ]hg Qàrgm òm thg ^rfeòg

U Ahòag, Quaagss , H`pplogss, òm QtflalsiUL Ah`rilob òm Cgss Ah`rilob Quakgr rfdcgisULL ]hgsgus, fr Clvlob thg O`tur`c Cleg

ULLL ]hg Tgpudcla fe Cgttgrs

LX ]hg Wolvgrs`c òm thg ^`rtlauc`r

X Effcgm dy Tòmfiogss

XL @gsthgtlas

XLL Gthlas

XLLL Tfdustogss & (@otl) Er`blcltyXLU ]hg Cumla E`ccày òm Mfi`lo Mgpgomgoag

XU Gplstgifcfby òm Qudtràtlvg Kofwcgmbg

XUL ]hg Qaòm`c fe ^rgmlatlfo

XULL Dglob ` ^hlcfsfphgr òm Iò`blob tf Tgi`lo Fog

XULLL Gafofila Cleg òm Fthgr Ugry Uucb`r Qudjgats

XLX ]hg Q`bg, thg Rg`k, òm thg I`bolelagot

XX ]hg Lipclalt òm thg Gxpclalt

XXL Fo thg U`rlgtlgs fe Cfvg òm Ofocfvg

XXLL ]hg Gom

L 0. ^gfpcg `rg iuah cgss lotgrgstgm lo wh`t yfu `rg

trylob tf shfw thgi thò wh`t yfu `rg trylob tf hlmg.

L 4. Grumltlfo wlthfut duccshlt, lotgccgat wlthfut

afw`rmlag, afur`bg wlthfut liprumgoag, i`thgi`tlaswlthfut ogrmlogss, sahfc`rshlp wlthfut à`mgil`,

lotgcclbgoag wlthfut shrgwmogss, rgclblfslty wlthfut

lotfcgròag, gcgbòag wlthfut sfetogss, sfal`clty wlthfut

mgpgomgoag, gojfyigot wlthfut `mmlatlfo, òm, `dfvg`cc, ofthlob wlthfut sklo lo thg bìg.

LL 1. @ bfvgroigot st`tlob "wg wlcc oft stòm lmcg lo

erfot fe `trfaltlgs afiilttgm dy (efrglbo mlat`tfr) X\Z"ls typla`ccy trylob tf iltlb`tg thg bulct efr stòmlob lmcg

lo erfot fe ifrg `trfaltlgs afiilttgm dy s`lm X\Z.

LL =. @cifst `cc thfsg aùbht i`klob ` cfbla`c e`ccày

lotgrprgt lt `s ` "mls`brggigot".

LL 7. Eròag tffk @cbgrl`, hfplob efr ` afuotry tf g`t

a`ssfucgt òm lostg`m Eròag ls ofw g`tlob afusafus.(Lovgrsg geegats).


2/21

4

LL 5. Le pfwgreuc `sshfcgs mfo't elom yfu "`rrfbòt", lt

igòs yfu `rg mflob sfigthlob wrfob.

LL 2. Le sfigfog ls i`klob ò geefrt tf lbofrg yfu, hg ls

oft lbofrlob yfu.

LL 8. Lo yfur pr`ygrs sudstltutg "prftgat us erfi gvlc"

wlth "prftgat us erfi thfsg whf liprfvg thlobs efr `

s`c`ry".

LL . Iuah fe thg mleegrgoag dgtwggo wh`t ls hg`vgo

òm wh`t ls hgcc ls dròmlob.

LL 00. Ogvgr rg`m ` dffk rgvlgw wrlttgo dy ò ùthfr

whfsg dffks yfu wfucmo't rg`m.

LL 04. Fog fe cleg's iàhlo`tlfos ls tf i`kg sfig

pgfpcg dfth rlah òm uoh`ppy, th`t ls, jflotcy er`blcg

òm mgprlvgm fe hfpg.

LL 01. ^gfpcg mfo't clkg lt whgo yfu `sk thgi efr hgcp;thgy `csf eggc cget fut whgo yfu mfo't `sk thgi efr

hgcp.

LL 0=. ]hg mrgì fe h`vlob afiputgrs dgh`vg clkg

huiòs ls afilob trug, wlth thg tròsefri`tlfo, lo `slobcg bgogr`tlfo, fe huiòs lotf afiputgrs.

LL 07. ]hg elrst fog whf usgs "dut", h`s cfst thg

`rbuigot.

LL 05. ]hg i`lo rg`sfo tf bf tf sahffc ls tf cg`ro *hfw

oft* tf thlok clkg ` prfegssfr.

LL 02. ]hg ifmgro hypfarltg blvgs thg mgslbo`tlfo

"rgspgat" tf wh`t ls ofthlob dut eg`r fe thg pfwgreuc.


3/21

1

LL 08. Rg lovgotgm còbu`bg tf dg v`bug, le yfu aò

sfrt fe sgg wh`t L igò.

LL 0. Rhgo sfigfog st`rts ` sgotgoag wlth thg elrst

h`ce afot`lolob "L", "oft", òm "dut", thg "oft" shfucm

dg rgifvgm òm thg "dut" rgpcàgm wlth "thgrgefrg.

LL 40. Rhgo sfigfog wrltgs "L mlsclkg yfu dut L `brgg

wlth yfu", L rg`m "L mlsclkg yfu dgaùsg L `brgg wlth

yfu."

LLL 44. @utfi`tlfo i`kgs fthgrwlsg pcg`sòt àtlvltlgs

turo lotf "wfrk".

LLL 41. Efr cleg tf dg rg`ccy euo, wh`t yfu eg`r shfucm

clog up wlth wh`t yfu mgslrg.

LLL 4=. Le yfu bgt g`slcy dfrgm, lt igòs th`t yfur DQ

mgtgatfr ls euoatlfolob prfpgrcy; le yfu efrbgt (sfig)

thlobs, lt igòs th`t yfur ilom kofws hfw tf elctgr;

òm le yfu eggc s`mogss, lt igòs th`t yfu `rg huiò.

LLL 47. Lt ls oft pfssldcg tf h`vg euo whgo yfu try.

LLL 45. Cleg ls `dfut gxgautlfo r`thgr thò purpfsg.

LLL 42. ]hg bffm cleg -thg vlt` dg`t` - ls clkg rg`mlob `

Tusslò ofvgc: lt t`kgs 4>> p`bgs fe strubbclob wlth thgah`ràtgrs dgefrg fog aò st`rt gojfylob thlobs. ]hgo

thg `blt`tlfo st`rts tf i`kg sgosg.

LLL 48. ]hg uctli`tg erggmfi clgs lo oft h`vlob tf

gxpc`lo "why" yfu mlm sfigthlob.

LLL 4


4/21

=

LLL 1>. Rg oggm tf eggc ` clttcg dlt cfst sfigwhgrg,

physla`ccy fr lotgccgatu`ccy, `t cg`st foag ` m`y.

LU 10. @thglsts `rg just ifmgro vgrslfos fe rgclblfus

euomìgot`clsts: thgy dfth t`kg rgclblfo tff cltgr`ccy.

LU 14. Ifofthglstla rgclblfo lso't sf iuah `dfut tgcclob

iò th`t thgrg ls fog Bfm, sf iuah prgvgotlob iò

erfi thloklob th`t hglsBfm.

LU 11. ^`bòlsi ls mgagotr`clzgm thgfcfby.

LU 1=. ]hg òalgot Igmltgrrògò : dgefrg ifofthglsi,

pgfpcg ahòbgm òm gxahòbgm rltgs òm bfms `s wg

mf wlth gthola effm.

U 17. Ogvgr hlrg ò @ stumgot uocgss lt ls tf t`kg

gxìs.

U 15. Duslogss w`rs `rg typla`ccy cfst dy dfth p`rtlgs,

à`mgila w`rs `rg wfo dy dfth slmgs.

U 12. Afrfcc`ry: Le yfu sfal`clzg wlth sfigfog wlth `

si`ccgr dòk àafuot thò yfurs, yfu `rg fdclb`tgm tfafovgrsg gxàtcy `s le yfu h`m thg sìg igòs, g`t lo

thg pcàgs whgrg hg g`ts, `t of pflot lo tlig shfw thg

platurgs fe yfur và`tlfo lo ^rfvgoag fr òythlob th`t

hlots `t thg mleegrgotl`c lo igòs.

U 18. Mlm yfu oftlag th`t afccgatlob `rt ls tf hfddy-

p`lotlob `s w`tahlob pfrofbr`phy ls tf mflob thg rg`c

thlob6 Focy mleegrgoag ls st`tus.

U 1. L wfomgr hfw iòy pgfpcg wfucm sggk gxagsslvgwg`cth le lt mlm oft a`rry ` ig`surg fe st`tuswlth lt.

U =0. Lo thg m`ys fe Qugtfolus, 5>% fe prfilogotgmua`tfrs (brìi`rlòs) wgrg sc`vgs. ]fm`y thg r`tlf

ls


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7

U =4. Lt ls bffm tf oft eggc govy; dut dgttgr tf oglthgr

govy ofr dg govlgm.

U =1. Quaagss lo `cc gomg`vfrs ls rgqulrgs `dsgoag fe

spgalela qu`cltlgs. 0) ]f suaaggm lo arlig rgqulrgs`dsgoag fe gip`thy, 4) ]f suaaggm lo dòklob yfu

oggm `dsgoag fe shìg `t hlmlob rlsks, 1) ]f suaaggm

lo sahffc rgqulrgs `dsgoag fe afiifo sgosg, =) ]f

suaaggm lo gafofilas rgqulrgs `dsgoag feuomgrstòmlob fe prfd`dlclty, rlsk, fr 4om frmgr geegats

òm `dfut òythlob, 7) ]f suaaggm lo jfuro`clsi

rgqulrgs lo`dlclty tf thlok `dfut i`ttgrs th`t h`vg ò

loeloltgsli`c si`cc ahòag fe dglob rgcgvòt ogxt

Jòu`ry, ...5) Dut tf suaaggm lo cleg rgqulrgs ` tft`c

lo`dlclty tf mf òythlob th`t i`kgs yfu uoafiefrt`dcgwhgo yfu cffk `t yfursgce lo thg ilrrfr.

U ==. ]hg `cph` pgrsfo `t ` b`thgrlob fe "hlbh st`tus"

pgrsfos ls fetgo, mgtgat`dcy, thg w`ltgr.

U =7. ]hg o`tur`c dgogelt fe ` agcc phfog, c`ptfp, òm

fthgr lomlspgos`dcg ifmgro ltgis ls thg jfy fog bgtselomlob thg fdjgat ètgr cfslob lt. Cfsg yfur w`ccgt eucc fe

argmlt a`rms òm yfu wlcc h`vg ` ahòag tf h`vg ` brg`t

m`y.

U =5. ]hg focy w`y yfu aò `sagrt`lo th`t yfu `rgrg`ccy rlah ls le yfu prgegr tf mrlvg ` sclbhtcy dg`tgo

ofomgsarlpt a`r, wlthfut eggclob afipgccgm tf cgt fthgrs

kofw th`t yfu `rg mflob lt "dy ahflag".

U =2. ]hgrg ls of ifrg uoilst`k`dcg slbo fe e`lcurg

thò th`t fe ` ilmmcg-`bgm iò df`stlob fe hls

suaagssgs lo afccgbg.

U =8. Rh`t wg afiifocy a`cc "suaagss" (rgw`rms,st`tus, rgafboltlfo, sfig ogw igtrla) ls ` afosfc`tlfo

prlzg efr thfsg dfth uoh`ppy òm oft bffm `t wh`t

thgy mf.

U =. \fu wlcc ogvgr kofw le sfigfog ls ò `sshfcg

uotlc hg dgafigs rlah.

UL 70. @cc ruifrs `dfut ` pudcla elburg `rg tf dgmggigm uotrug uotlc hg thrg`tgos tf sug.

UL 74. Durgùarày ls ` afostruatlfo mgslbogm tfi`xlilzg thg mlstòag dgtwggo ` mgalslfo-i`kgr òm

thg rlsks fe thg mgalslfo.


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UL 71. Gxgautlvg prfbrìs `ccfw us tf w`tah pgfpcg

whf h`vg ogvgr wfrkgm cgaturlob thfsg whf h`vg ogvgr

pfomgrgm.

UL 7=. Ogvgr bgt lotf ` duslogss p`rtogrshlp wlth `rgtlrgm c`wygr uocgss hg h`s òfthgr hfddy.

UL 77. Ogvgr shfw ` rlsk ouidgr, gvgo le lt ls rlbht.

UL 75. ^gfpcg tgom tf whlspgr whgo thgy s`y thg truth

òm r`lsg thglr vflag whgo thgy clg.

UL 72. ]hg prfdcgi wlth à`mgilas ls th`t thgy rg`ccy

thlok th`t ofoà`mgilas elom thgi ifrg lotgcclbgot

thò thgisgcvgs.

UL 78. ]hg r`tlfo`c hgurlstla ls tf `vflm òy i`rkgt

afiigot`ry erfi òyfog whf h`s tf wfrk efr ` clvlob.

UL 7


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2

ULL 57. E`stlob: gvgry huiò shfucm cg`ro tf rg`m,

wrltg, rgspgat thg wg`k, t`kg rlsks lo vflalob mlsrgspgat

efr thg pfwgreuc whgo w`rròtgm, òm e`st.

ULL 55. Hlbh Ifmgrolty: rfutlog lo pcàg fe physla`cgeefrt, physla`c geefrt lo pcàg fe igot`c gxpgomlturg,

òm igot`c gxpgomlturg lo pcàg fe igot`c ac`rlty.

ULL 52. Lo rg`c cleg gxìs sfigfog blvgs yfu ò òswgr

òm yfu h`vg tf elom thg dgst afrrgspfomlob qugstlfos.

ULL 58. Lt usgm tf t`kg 2 yg`rs tf elburg fut le ` dffk ls

` dffk fr jfuro`clsi dgtwggo afvgrs. Ofw `cc fog

oggms ls w`lt twf yg`rs. Qffo, ` egw ifoths.

ULL 5. Tg`c cleg (vlt` dg`t`) ls whgo yfur ahflagsafrrgspfom tf yfur mutlgs.

ULL 20. Qfig lmg`s `rg dfro `s yfu wrltg thgo mfwo,

fthgrs dgafig mg`m.

ULL 24. ]hg cfobgst dffk L'vg gvgr rg`m w`s 4>7 p`bgs.

ULL 21. Fog fe thg shfrtgst dffks L'vg gvgr rg`m h`m2=7 p`bgs.

ULL 2=. Efri`c gmua`tlfo ls argmgotl`cs pcus ogb`tlvg

kofwcgmbg sf lt sfrt fe wfrks fut fo d`còag.

ULL 27. Lt ls ` aursg tf h`vg lmg`s th`t pgfpcguomgrstòm focy whgo lt ls tff c`tg.

ULL 25.]hg ifst lipfrtòt `spgat fe e`stlob ls th`t yfu

eggc mggp uomlrgatgm br`tltumg whgo yfu drg`k thg e`st.


8/21

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ULLL 22. @ rlsk yfu ruo whgo yfu wrltg ` dffk a`cclob

jfuro`clsts DQ vgomfrs ls th`t `ccyfur rgvlgwgrs wlcc dg

DQ vgomfrs.0

ULLL 28. L w`s tfcm tf wrltg igmlui slzgm dffks. \gt fethg twf ifst suaagsseuc Ergoah ofvgcs lo hlstfry: fog ls

vgry shfrt (Cg ^gtlt ^rloag, 8> p), fthgr gxtr` cfob

(^rfust's Tgahgrahg, 14>> p), efccfwlob thg @raslog c`w.

ULLL 2. @uthfrs mgpcgtg thglr sfuc whgo thg i`rblo`c

afotrldutlfo fe ` ogw dffk ls si`ccgr thò th`t fe thgprgvlfus fog.

ULLL 80. L wòt tf wrltg dffks th`t focy thfsg whf rg`mthgi ac`li thgy mlm.

0 Tgpcy tf Dlcc G`stgrcy whf wrftg :"@ rlsk yfu ruo whgoyfu wrltg ` dffk arltlalzlob gxpgrts ls th`t sfig fe yfur

ULLL 84. L wfomgr why ogwssuakgrs mfo't rg`clzg th`t le

ogws h`m thg sclbhtgst prgmlatlvg & ofoògamft`c v`cug

jfuro`clsts wfucm dg ifostrfuscy rlah. @om le jfuro`clsts

wgrg rg`ccy oft lotgrgstgm lo ifogy thgy wfucm dgwrltlob cltgr`ry gss`ys.

ULLL 81. Le thg prfegssfr ls oft a`p`dcg fe blv lob ` ac`ss

wlthfut prgp`r`tlfo, mfo't `ttgom. ^gfpcg shfucm focy

tgàh wh`t thgy h`vg cg`rogm frbòla`ccy, thrfubhgxpgrlgoag òm aurlfslty fr bgt òfthgr jfd.

ULLL 8=. Le yfu mfo't eggc th`t yfu h`vgo't rg`m gofubh,

yfu h`vgo't rg`m gofubh.

ULLL 87. Jfuro`clsts rgpfrtlob fo jfuro`clsi (suah `s thg

rgagot Ogw \frk ]ligs df`rmrffi lotrlbug) `rglovfcvgm lo ò uoafosalfus efri fe foòlsi.

ULLL 85. Ogwsp`pgrs usgm tf dg wrlttgo dy jfuro`clsts;thgy `rg ofw wrlttgo efr jfuro`clsts. (@v`còahg fe

hg`mclogs `dfut thg O\] lotrlbug)

ULLL 82.Jfuro`c lsts rgpfrtlob fo jfuro`clsi (suah `s thg

O\] lotrlbug) ls ò uoafosalfus efri fe foòlsi.


9/21

X 0>>. Oltplaklob ls thg uoilst`k`dcg i`rk fe

acugcgssogss.

XL 0>0. @ bfcmgo s`mmcg fo ` slak hfrsg i`kgs thg

prfdcgi eggc wfrsg; pfip òm sclakogss lo efri (]GM-afoegrgoag stycg) i`kgs `dsgoag fe sudstòag

oùsg`tlob

XL 0>4. Iy liprgsslfo fe C`s Ugb`s: ifstcy prgml`dgtla

igo wg`rlob shfrts.

XL 0>1. Qloag lts loagptlfo, à`mgil` h`s dggo

brfuomgm lo thg lmg` th`t kofwcgmbg fe thg ahgila`c

afipfsltlfo fe lok wlcc liprfvg fog's wrltlob.

XL 0>=. Qtumylob ogurfdlfcfby tf uomgrstòm huiòs ls

clkg stumylob lok tf uomgrstòm cltgr`turg.

XL 0>7. ]hgrg ls ofthlob ifrg hlmgfus thò gxagsslvg

rgelogigot (lo effm, mrgss, clegstycg, gta.)

XL 0>5.Qlcgoag ls focy loefri`tlfo`c le yfu aò spg`k

sklcceuccy.

XLL 0>2. Le wg `rg thg focy òli`c wlth ` sgosg fe

justlag, lt wfucm acg`rcy dg dgaùsg wg `csf `rg `dfutthg focy òli`c wlth ` sgosg fe arugcty.

XLL 0>8. @ bffm iò ls w`ri òm rgspgateuc tfw`rms

thg w`ltgr fr pgfpcg fe suppfsgmcy cfwgr eloòal`c òm

sfal`c afomltlfo.

XLL 0>. @aagpt thg r`tlfo`clty fe tlig, ogvgr lts e`lrogss

òm ifr`clty.

XLL 000. @ofthgr i`rkgr efr ah`rc`tòs: thgy mfo't

vflag fplolfos th`t aò bgt thgi lo trfudcg.


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00

XLL 004. @oy àtlfo fog mfgs wlth thg `li fe wloolob

ò `w`rm, òy `w`rm, afrrupts tf thg afrg.

XLL 001. @oythlob pgfpcg mf, wrltg, fr s`y tf gohòag

thglr st`tus dgyfom wh`t thgy blvg fthgrs shfws clkg ì`rk fo thglr efrghg`ms, vlsldcg tf fthgrs dut oft tf

thgi.

XLL 00=. Govy, clkg thlrst efr rgvgobg, ls thg wlakgm

pgrsfo's vgrslfo fe fur o`tur`c sgosg fe lojustlag.

XLL 007. Gvgry òbgc ls ò `sshfcg sfigwhgrg.

XLL 005. Gvgry `sshfcg ls ò òbgc sfigwhgrg.

XLL 002. Efr ò hfogst iò, erggmfi rgqulrgs h`vlobof erlgoms; òm, fog stgp `dfvg, s`lothffm rgqulrgs

h`vlob of eìlcy.

XLL 008. Efr sfal`c ifdlclty tf wfrk, lt oggms tf dg `

twf-w`y hlbhw`y, wlth ` c`rbg ouidgr fe prg-rlah òm

ò `cifst `s c`rbg fog fe pfst-rlah.

XLL 00


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04

XLL 04=. Iuctlpcla`tlvg bgogrfslty: clilt yfur bgogrfslty

tf thfsg whf, lo turo, blvgo thg alrauistòags, wfucm

dg gqu`ccy bgogrfus tfw`rms fthgrs.

XLL 047. Ogvgr duy ` prfmuat th`t thg fwogr fe thgafipòy th`t i`kgs lt mfgso't usg, fr, lo thg a`sg fe,

s`y, igmla`tlfo, wfucmo't afotlobgotcy usg.

XLL 045. Ogvgr a`cc sfigfog ò lidgalcg (fr euaklob

lmlft) uocgss hg aùsgs h`ri tf fthgrs/systgi; thgrgiust dg ` ifr`c mligoslfo tf losucts.

XLL 042. Ogvgr t`kg ò `mvlag erfi ` s`cgsiò, fr òy

`mvlag th`t dgogelts thg `mvlag blvgr.

XLL 048. Ogvgr trust ` jfuro`clst uocgss shg's yfur

ifthgr.

XLL 04. Qfigthlob shfmmy: altlzgoshlp fe afovgolgoag,

hfcmlob thg p`sspfrt fe ` afuotry efr g`sg fe tr`vgc/t`x

wlthfut afiilttlob tf lts afiiuolty.

XLL 010. Quppfsgmcy, l e yfu `rguoafiprfilslob/lotfcgròt wlth DQ yfu cfsg erlgoms.

Dut yfu wlcc `csf i`kg erlgoms, dgttgr erlgoms.

XLL 014. ]hg dfttfi h`ce h`s dggo typla`ccy sargwgm dy

thg ilmmcg ac`ss. ]h`t's thg gotlrg stfry fe Tfig.

XLL 011. ]rust thfsg whf `rg brggmy efr ifogy `

thfusòm tligs ifrg thò thfsg whf `rg brggmy efr

argmgotl`cs.

XLL 01=. ]rust thfsg whf trust yfu òm mlstrust thfsg

whf `rg susplalfus fe fthgrs.

XLL 017. Ulrtug ls whgo thg loafig yfu wlsh tf shfw

thg t`x `bgoay gxaggms wh`t yfu wlsh tf shfw yfuroglbhdfr.


13/21

01

XLL 015.Mlstrldutlvg justlag lso't t`klob erfi ` rlsk t`kgr

whf g`rogm hfofr`dcy, lt ls kggplob hls prfd`dlclty fe

cfslob lt vgry hlbh.

XLL 012.L eggc rfddgm dy thfsg whf i`kg ifogy wlthof sklo lo thg bìg (Tudlo, Bglthogr,& dòkgrs) dut L

mgsplsg `ttàks fo logqu`clty d`sgm fo govy. [AW]Y

XLL 018.\fur muty ls tf sargì thfsg truths th`t fog

shfucm shfut dut th`t `rg igrgcy whlspgrgm.

XLLL 01. Bgogr`c ^rloalpcg: thg sfcutlfos (fo d`còag)

oggm tf dg slipcgr thò thg prfdcgis.

XLLL 0=0. Loarg`slobcy, pgfpcg mfo't dgafig à`mgilasdgaùsg fe lotgcclbgoag, r`thgr dgaùsg fe cfwgr br`sp

fe mlsfrmgr.

XLLL 0=4. ]hg focy v`clm pfcltla`c systgi ls fog th`t aò

hòmcg ò lidgalcg lo pfwgr wlthfut sueegrlob erfi lt.

XLLL 0=1. ]hg prfdcgi wlth thg lmg` fe "cg`rolob erfi

fog's ilst`kgs" ls th`t ifst fe wh`t pgfpcg a`ccilst`kgs `rgo't ilst`kgs.

XLLL 0==. ]hgrg ls thls prgv`lclob lccuslfo th`t mgdt ls `

rgogw`dcg rgsfurag.

XLLL 0=7. ]f s`y lt dcuotcy, `cc thg arltlas fe iy t`lc rlsklmg`s òm str`tgblgs stlcc wfrk òm h`vg tfwfrk efr `

clvlob.

XLLL 0=5. ]f uomgrstòm hfw sfigthlob wfrks, elburg

fut hfw tf drg`k lt.

XLLL 0=2. \fu aò gxpgat dcfwups òm gxpcfslvg grrfrslo elgcms whgrg thgrg ls ` pgo`cty efr slipclalty.


14/21

0=

XLLL 0=8.Afipgtltlvg à`mgil`, spfrts, òm jfuro`clsi:

pgrsfos òm brfups dfth vucogr`dcg tf rgput`tlfo`c

ahòbgs òm pushgm tf thg clilt fe thglr afipgtgoag,

slttlob lo ` st`tg fe losgaurlty `s fog slobcg grrfr aòwrgak thglr a`rggrs, ygt pushgm tf fpgr`tg `t th`t

i`rblo fwlob tf thg afipgtltlvg erìgwfrk. [AW]6Y

XLLL 0=. @ cft fe wh`t wg a`cc wfrk ls oflsg.

XLU 070. @ cft fe wh`t wg a`cc slbo`c ls oflsg.

XLU 074. L rgagotcy h`m ` ig`c lo ` eòay rgstùròt

wlth afipcla`tgm mlshgs wlth eòay oìgs ($047 pgrpgrsfo), thgo gojfygm ` plzz` ètgrw`rms (str`lbht fut

fe thg fvgo), $2.


15/21

07

XLX 07


16/21

05

XLX 02>. Ulrtug ls sgqugoag fe si`cc àts fe filsslfo.

Hfofr òm Bròmgur aò dg ` slobcg butsy, ifigotfus,

òm sgce-sàrlelal`c àt fe afiilsslfo.

XLX 020. Rhgo L mlg, L wòt thg hlbhgst ouidgr feelrgigo, rlsk t`kgrs, & fthgr rg`c pgfpcg òm thg

si`ccgst ouidgr fe à`mgilas tf `ttgom iy euogr`c

XLX 024. Rhgo yfu altg sfig fcm wlsmfi-stycg quftg

òm `mm "lipfrtòt truth", "tf rgigidgr" fr"sfigthlob tf clvg dy", yfu `rg oft mflob sf dgaùsg lt

ls bffm, focy dgaùsg lt ls lo`ppcla`dcg. H`m lt dggo

dfth bffm òm `ppcla`dcg yfu wfucm oft h`vg h`m tf

altg lt. Rlsmfi th`t ls h`rm tf gxgautg lso't rg`ccy

wlsmfi.

XLX 021. \fu `rg `s bffm `s hfw olag yfu `rg tf

pgfpcg yfu mfo't h`vg tf dg olag tf.

XLX 02=.I`bolelagoag ls mgelogm dy thg lotgrsgatlfo fe

rgcuatòt pr`lsg dy yfur gogilgs òm arltlalsi dy yfurerlgoms; brg`togss dy thglr uolfo.

XLX 027.Rg vlalfuscy àagpt o`ralsslsi lo o`tlfo-st`tgs,

whlcg rgprgsslob lt lo lomlvlmu`cs: afipcgxlty gxpfsgs

thg systgi's sh`ky ifr`c efuom`tlfos.

XLX025.Dg pfcltg, afurtgfus, òm bgotcg, dut lbofrgafiigots, pr`lsg, òm arltlalsi erfi pgfpcg yfu

wfucmo't hlrg.

XU 022. Ahòbg òahfr tf wh`t mlm oft h`ppgo r`thgr

thò tf wh`t mlm h`ppgo.

XU 028. Lo ` afoeclat, thg ilmmcg brfuom ls cg`st clkgcy tf

dg afrrgat.

XU 02. Lt ls pgrpcgxlob, dut ìuslob tf fdsgrvgpgfpcg bgttlob gxtrgigcy gxaltgm `dfut thlobs yfu mfo't

a`rg `dfut; lt ls slolstgr tf w`tah thgi lbofrg thlobsyfu dgclgvg `rg euomìgot`c.


17/21

02

XULL 080. @ phlcfsfphgr usgs cfbla wlthfut st`tlstlas, ò

gafofilst usgs st`tlstlas wlthfut cfbla, ` physlalst usgs

dfth.

XULL 084. Efr iòy pgfpcg, lt t`kgs ` cft fe prgp`r`tlfotf cg`ro tf dgafig frmlo`ry.

XULL 081. Le yfur `pprfàh tf i`thgi`tlas ls

igahòla`c oft iystla`c, yfu'rg oft bflob tf bf

òywhgrg.

XULL 08=. Cgt us elom wh`t rlsks wg aò ig`surg òm

thgsg `rg thg rlsks wg shfucm dg t`klob

XULL 087. I`thgi`tlas mgiòms ò uoafotrfccgm

huobgr efr `dstràtlfo, phlcfsfphy ` vgry afotrfccgm

fog.

XULL 085. Q`c`rlgm pgfpcg `rg just stgpp`rgots. ]hgy

aò dg bffm stgpp`rgots dut lt ogvgr i`tahgs thgdlfcfbla`c.

XULLL 082. @o gafofilst ls ` ilxturg fe 0) `

duslogssiò wlthfut afiifo sgosg, 4) ` physlalst

wlthfut dr`lo, òm 1) ` spgauc`tfr wlthfut d`ccs.

XULLL 088. @oyfog whf clkgs iggtlobs shfucm dgdòogm erfi `ttgomlob iggtlobs. (Hgurlstla)

XULLL 08


18/21

08

XULLL 00. Lt ls g`slgr tf iàrfduccshlt thò tf

ilarfduccshlt.

XULLL 4>4. Qtlbcltz uomgrst oms gvgrythlob `dfutgafofilas gxagpt efr t`lc rlsks: clkg kofwlob gvgrythlob

`dfut eclbht sègty gxagpt efr ar`shgs.

XULLL 4>1. ]hfsg wlth dr`los of d`ccs dgafig

i`thgi`tlalòs, thfsg wlth d`ccs of dr`los jflo thg

ièl`, thfsg wlth of d`ccs of dr`los dgafiggafofilsts.1

XULLL 4>=.]f h`vg ` brg`t m`y: 0) Qilcg `t ` stròbgr,4) Qurprlsg sfigfog dy s`ylob sfigthlob uogxpgatgmcy

olag, 1) Blvg sfig bgoulog `ttgotlfo tf ò gcmgrcy, =)Lovltg sfigfog whf mfgso't h`vg iòy erlgoms efr

1 @om thfsg wlth dr`los òm d`ccs dgafig`rtlsòs/gotrgprgogurs.


19/21

07. Rhgo pfsltlvg, shfw ogt, whgo ogb`tlvg,

shfw brfss.

XX 4>5. @ h`pplgr wfrcm ls fog lo whlah gvgryfog

rg`clzgs th`t 0) lt ls oft wh`t yfu tgcc pgfpcg, lt ls hfw

yfu s`y lt th`t i`kgs thgi eggc d`m, 4) lt ls oft wh`t

yfu mf tf thgi dut hfw yfu i`kg thgi cffk th`t bgtsthgi òbry, 1) thgy shfucm dg thg fogs puttlob

thgisgcvgs lo ` spgalela a`tgbfry.

XX 4>2. Afipc`lots mfo't mgclvgr afipc`lots, thgy

ifstcy rgvg`c yfur wg`kogss.

XX 4>8. Le sfigthlob cffks lrr`tlfo`c òm h`s dggo sfefr ` cfob tlig fmms `rg yfu h`vg ` wrfob mgeloltlfo

fe r`tlfo`clty.

XX 4>. ^gfpcg cùbh fut cfum òm drf`ma`st thglr

cùbhtgr whgo thgy'rg wfrrlgm `dfut thg st`tgigot th`t

thgy purpfrtgmcy elom euooy. ]hgy wfucm silcg -

pgrh`ps surrgptltlfuscy -fthgrwlsg.

XX 400. Qwg`rlob fo thg faa`slfo, ìlm rlah

vfa`duc`ry, ls afstcy slbo`clob th`t yfu `rg sgce-fwogm.

XX 404. ]hg bgogr`c prloalpcg fe òtler`blclty: lt ls iuah

dgttgr tf mf thlobs yfu aòoft gxpc`lo thò gxpc`lothlobs yfu aòoft mf.

XX 401. ]hg rucgs yfu gxpc`lo `rg cgss afovloalob th`t

thg fogs yfu mfo't gxpc`lo- fr h`vg tf gxpc`lo.

XX 40=. ]f losuct ` d`rd`rlò, usg hls fwo còbu`bg:

Aui a`rg a`rlz`s, rustlag `bls aui rustlaf, d`rd`rg

cfqugrls d`rd`rf ,ar`ssg aui ar`ssf.

XX 407. Rhgo yfu s`y sfigthlob yfu thlok `rg justs`ylob sfigthlob, dut yfu `rg c`rbgcy afiiuola`tlob

whyyfu h`m tf s`y lt.)


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4>

XX 405. \fu aò `cifst agrt`locy gxtràt ` "ygs" erfi

sfigfog whf s`ys "of" tf yfu, ogvgr erfi sfigfog

whf s`ys ofthlob.

XX 402. Qfphlstla tgm ls `cifst `cw`ys psgumf-sfphlstla`tgm.

XX 408. ]hg focy pgfpcg whf thlok th`t rg`c wfrcm

gxpgrlgoag mfgso't i`ttgrs `rg thfsg whf ogvgr h`m

rg`c wfrcm gxpgrlgoag.

XX 40. @o gogiy whf dgafigs ` erlgom wlcc `cw`ysdg ` erlgom; ` erlgom turogm gogiy wlcc rgi`lo sf

efrgvgr.

XXL 440. Huiòs oggm tf afipc`lo just `s thgy oggm tf

drg`thg. Ogvgr stfp thgi; just iòlpuc`tg thgi dyafotrfcclob wh`t thgy afipc`lo `dfut & suppcy thgi

wlth rg`sfos tf afipc`lo. ]hgy wlcc afipc`lo dut wlccdg thòkeuc.

XXL 444. Lojurlgs mfog tf us dy fthgrs tgom tf dg

àutg; thg sgce-loeclatgm fogs tgom tf dg ahrfola.

XXL 441. Jfuro`clsts eggc afotgipt efr thfsg whf eg`r

thgi òm ` mggp rgsgotigot efr thfsg whf mfo't.

XXL 44=. ]hg fogs whf rgegr tf yfu rgpg`tgmcy `s "iy

erlgom" `rg ifst clkgcy tf dgtr`y yfu.

XXL 447. Wsgm sklcceuccy, ` afipcligot wlcc dg iuah

ifrg feegoslvg thò òy mlsp`r`bgigot.

XXL 445. Rh`t afuots ls oft wh`t pgfpcg s`y `dfut

yfu, lt ls hfw iuah gogrby thgy spgom s`ylob lt.

XXL 442. Rhgo pgfpcg a`cc yfu lotgcclbgot lt ls `cifst`cw`ys dgaùsg thgy `brgg wlth yfu. Fthgrwlsg thgy

just a`cc yfu `rrfbòt.


21/21

XXL 448. Efr ifst prfegsslfo`c rgsg`rahgrs, fthgr

pgfpcg's lmg`s `rg clkg fthgr pgfpcg's ahlcmrgo.

XXL44. ]hg focy prfdcgi wlth thg c`st cùbh ls th`t

thg wloogr h`s tf cùbh `cfog.

XXLL 410. Rlsmfi lso't `dfut uomgrstòmlob thlobs (&

pgfpcg); lt ls kofwlob wh`t thgy aò mf tf yfu.

Documents

Nassim Talib - Heuristics (via Twitter)