Natalia Kosana Goldysiak

201224120101

Natalia Kosana Godysiak

UDC 1

Natalia Kosana Godysiak

1 UDC

- 3 -

POLISH MERCHANDISE TRADE POLICY

TOWARDS CHINA

A Master Thesis Submitted to

University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

Major: International Politics

Author: Natalia Kosana Godysiak

Advisor: Prof. Zhu Xiaoning

School: School of Political Science and Public

Administration

I

21

1949

1995 3.88 2000 7.6

2005 20.38 2010 77.43 2013 91.44

68% 25%

57%

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

In the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of Chinese economy has considerably

changed the worlds economic order. Although Poland is among the first countries to

establish diplomatic relations with the Peoples Republic of China, Sino-Polish

cooperation falls behind when compared to bilateral cooperation between China and

other Western countries. Polish merchandise trade deficit with China has risen from 388

million US dollars in 1995 to 760 million US dollars in 2000, over 2 billion US dollars

in 2005, 7,7 billion in 2010 and over 9 billion US dollars in 2013, reaching 68% of total

bilateral trade value, one of the highest percentages among Western countries. In

comparison, total value of German exports to China surpasses the value of total imports

from China, French trade deficit with China amounts to only 25% of total trade value,

Hungarian trade deficit with China, also one of the biggest in Europe, is still lower than

Polish, at 57%. The lack of internationally known Polish products is one of the reasons

for such situation, so reasonable trade policy is fundamental to fully take advantage of

the potential of Sino-Polish trade and minimize trade deficit. In order to fully

understand Polish merchandise trade policy towards China, the author starts with

explaining basic trade policy theories and introducing main trade policy instruments.

Following, the author analyzes main trends in trade policy towards China since the

beginning of Chinese Economic Reforms in 1978 till now, focusing mainly on United

States and European countries. Basing on the changes of international trends in trade

policy towards China and extensive study of scholarly literature, official reports and

mass media publications, the author researches Polish merchandise trade policy towards

China policy formulation and policy implementation processes, attempting to find their

main problems and the reasons for obstructions in the cooperation between the two

countries. The main conclusions are: in the field of policy formulation, the main barriers

in cooperation with China are popular stereotypes often seen among politicians, the lack

of strategic, geopolitical thinking, euro-centrism and never ending pursuit of re-election.

In the field of policy implementation, the main reasons for the lack of effectiveness are:

low level of trust of Polish people towards government institutions, beaurocracy, lack of

specialized knowledge, insufficient experience and lack of motivation of public servants,

highly politicized public sector and overall lack of effective management. Only if the

ABSTRACT

III

influence of political competition and re-election pursuit on policy-making can be

limited, if stereotypical, euro-centered thinking can no longer dictate the shape of trade

policy, if nepotism, beaurocracy and problems caused by lack of professionalism,

insufficient knowledge and low motivation of public servants can be eliminated, only

then can Poland fully utilize its potential in trade with China.

Key wordsChina, Poland, European Union, merchandise trade policy, export

support

IV

.................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 ................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 ................................................................................................................ 4

1.2.1 .................................................................................................. 4

1.2.2 .................................................................................................. 6

1.2.3 .......................................................................................................... 7

1.3 ................................................................................................................ 8

1.4 ................................................................................................................ 9

1.5 .............................................................................................................. 10

1.6 .............................................................................................................. 12

1.6.1 ........................................................................ 12

1.6.2 ................................................................ 14

...................................................... 22

2.1 .......................... 22

2.1.1 ............ 23

2.1.2 .................... 23

2.1.3 ........................ 24

2.1.4 .... 26

2.1.5 ........................ 26

2.1.6 .................................................................... 28

2.1.7 ........................................................ 29

2.2 .................................................................. 30

.................................................................................. 32

3.1 ...................................................................................... 32

3.1.1 1989 ...................................................... 32

3.1.2 .................................................... 33

3.1.3 ................................................ 34

3.1.4 ........................................................................ 37

3.1.5 ................................................................................................................ 41

3.2 .............................................................. 42

3.2.1 ................................................................................................ 42

3.2.2 ............................................................................................ 44

3.2.3 ................................................................................................ 45

3.2.4 ................................................................................................................ 49

V

.......................................................................... 50

4.1 .............................................................................. 50

4.2 ...................................................................................................... 50

4.2.1 ....................................................................................... 51

4.2.2 ........................................................................................ 55

4.3 .................................................. 57

.......................................................................... 60

5.1 .............................................................................. 60

5.2 .............................................................................................................. 60

5.2.1 ................................................................................................ 60

5.2.2 ................................................................................................ 61

5.3 .................................................. 66

5.3.1 .................................................... 66

5.3.2 ............................................................ 66

.......................... 71

.................................................................................................................. 76

................................................................................................................................ 80

........................................................................................................................ 81

.................................................................................................... 91

1

1.1

2030

1949

1-1 1991

1991 1.44

1996 6.2 1999 8.6 [1]

1-1 [1]

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1201992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

2

2006

6.06961.69155.622

[2]2008 8.67

114.66 105.99 [3]2010

12.29 126.15

113.86 [4]2012 13.579

136.868 123.289 [5]

1-2 [2-6]

1-2

2013

112.61 21.17

91.44 68%[7]

326.95 195.76 131.19

25%[8] 763.62

893.63 130.01 8%[9] 68.10 18.65

49.45 57%[10]

57.8214.1043.72

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3

61%[11]

1-3 2013 [7-11]

1-3

2010

OECD

[12]

2011 77,8%

8,4%

[13]

21.17

893.63

195.76

14.1 18.65

112.61

763.62

326.95

57.82 68.1

-91.44

130.01

-131.19

-43.72 -49.45

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

4

1.2

2005

Google

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PAIiIZKPMG

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1.2.2.2

70 1989 90 2001

X. Li China's geoeconomic strategy: China as a trading superpower

1978

19791989

19892001 2001 :

Chen Xin Policy Evolution of the

China-EU Trade and Economic Relationship

1.2.3

8

1.3

20

9

1989

1.4

10

1.5

12

1.6

1.6.1

1.6.1.1

19

Adam SmithDavid

Ricardo

19

1.6.1.2

15-17

13

19

20 70

1.6.1.3

20 80

1.6.1.4

20 80 J. A. Brander

B. J. Spencer P. R. Krugman

14

1.6.1.5

1.6.2

[14]

1947 23

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT1995 1 1

World Trade Organization, WTO GATT, , et al.

2006266-269 159

95%

WTO

WTO

[15] WTO

15

1.6.2.1

,

protective tariffrevenue tariff

20

1%[15]

WTO

99%73%98%100%[15]

import dutiesexport duties

transit duties

MFN

specific tariffad valorem

tariffcompound tariffalternative tariffvariable levy

16

CIF Cost, Insurance and Freight

FOBFree on Board

[15]

MFN, Most Favored Nation

GSP, Generalized System of Preferences

MFN 6.8%GSP 70%

, GATT WTO

[15]

[16]

17

1975

94%

AD, anti-dumping dutyCVD,

countervailing dutyWTO

1.6.2.2

19291933

40% 3.8%

1995 WTO

20

70

[15]

18

import quotas systemvoluntary export quotas system

import license system

advance

deposit

19

foreign exchange control

exchange dumping

Social Accountability 8000

20

SA8000

1.6.2.3

export subsidies

:

direct subsidiesindirect

subsidies

,

22

2.1

2-1 1978

?

1978 1989 20

2001

2-1 1978-2013[17]

23

2.1.1

70 1989

[18]

1975 1978

MFN

[19]1973

1972-19731.1271981-19828.9[20]

1972

70

1985 190

1980 89.1 1972 18 10.4 [21]

2.1.2

1989 1989

[18]

24

1989

1990

80

1988 1990

MFN

90

1990 10

1989 1990 1989

1990

1990

1989 15.6 1994

39.4 [20] 1990 22 1999

85.6 [22]

1984 2000 12 [19]

2.1.3

21

15 2001

21

WTO

WTO

2005 15% 10% 2-2

25

WTO

MFN

WTO

2-2 1978-2012[23]

WTO WTO

15

[15]

26

[24]

2.1.4

WTO

[18]

911

WTO

2006

2006

WTO

2003

[25]

2.1.5

?

20 70

27

2009

2008

2010 1

200

National Export Initiative

1995 2010 6 101

79 2006 11 2010

12 26 337 2003 2010

101 [26]

2009 2011

2013

[27]

28

export.gov

Exports Live!

Federal Export Support Program

[26]

ICEXGermany Trade & Invest

HERMES

[28]

2008

2007 20

56 2008 25 64

2010 48 68 2011 59 74 [29, 30]

2008 18 2010

35 2012 56 2013 82 2008

42,5 2010 49 2012 62,5 2013

68 [31-34]

2014 7 1 --

99.7% 76,3%

84.2%

[35]

2.1.6

BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South

Africa

29

2011

2011 318,5

526,4 389

403,5133,7161,4.

505,43

233,75

2012

WTO 1995 2013

989 161

717 129

2012 WTO

100%BRICS [36]

2005

2006 52

2012 124 2006

10 2012 31

[37]

2.1.7

1978 1989

30

20

2001

2.2

1989

CD1991

1996 OECD1999

NATO2004 2007 1989

1945 1989

32

3.1

3.1.1 1989

1415

16 18 17721793

1795 1918

1949 10 5

10 7

50

1951 6 15 CHIPOLBROK

50

60

1967

70

1976 1978

80

1981 12 13

1981

33

1983

1983

Ernest Kucza 1985 1985

Janusz Obodowski1986

1987 1988

Zbigniew Messner[38]

1986-06

1986-11

1988-06

1988-06[39]

3.1.2

1989

1989 2

1989 6 4

Tadeusz

Mazowiecki12 29

1990 1

1989

80

1989

1990 1 1 ""

:

1989

2000 1990 1 786 36

34

1990 4 10

3 1990

1991

/

1991 1990

3.22 1.44 1991

1991 Krzysztof

Skubiszewski 1992

3.1.3

1992

3-11993 22.9 1994 8.4 1995

17.4 [41]

1994 1993 0.24 1994

1.89 1995 3.88 1996 5.22 [1] 3-2

3-1 [40]

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

GDP 0.2 -11.6 -7.6 2.6 3.8 5.2 7.0 6.0 6.8 4.8 4.1

x x 3834 4137 5114 5459 x 5876 6406 8430 8790

76 109 128 14.0 13.6 16.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 241 265

73 86 127 135 159 178 247 326 423 435 408

3 23 1 5 -23 -09 -18 -82 -165 -194 -143

35

1993

Henryk Goryszewski1994 9

Waldemar Pawlak1997

Aleksander Kwaniewski

38

[42]

[42]

[42]

[42]

3-21990-2004 [1]

1990 3.22 0.74 2.48 x x x -1.74

1991 1.44 0.56 0.88 -55.28% -24.32% -64.52% -0.32

1992 2.09 1.19 0.9 45.14% 112.50% 2.27% 0.29

1993 4.72 2.48 2.24 125.84% 108.40% 148.89% 0.24

1994 3.99 2.94 1.05 -15.47% 18.55% -53.13% 1.89

1995 5.56 4.72 0.84 39.35% 60.54% -20.00% 3.88

1996 6.16 5.69 0.47 10.79% 20.55% -44.05% 5.22

1997 7.05 6.73 0.32 14.45% 18.28% -31.91% 6.41

1998 8.14 7.58 0.56 15.46% 12.63% 75.00% 7.02

1999 8.6 7.02 1.58 5.65% -7.39% 182.12% 5.44

2000 9.6 8,6 1 11.63% 22.51% -36.71% 7.6

2001 12.42 10.16 2.26 29.38% 18.14% 126.00% 7.9

2002 13.83 11.64 2.19 11.35% 14.57% -3.10% 9.45

2003 19.79 16.2 3.59 43.09% 39.18% 63.93% 12.61

2004 23.31 18.44 4.87 17.79% 13.83% 35.65% 13.57

36

19892004

90

1994 1995 7 1 WTO

WTO

1994

1990 5 51 14 66

WTO [41]

l5%-20%1995 1 1997 1

WTO 10% 1995 1 8,7%1996 1 7,4%1997

1 6%5%-20% 510

1520%20%-35%

2001 1 35% 21%

20% 12%[43]

1997 1998 1 1

1992 [44]

2002 -15 -10

2004 5 1

Common Customs Tariff, CCT

Common Commercial Policy, CCP

37

3.1.4

00

3-32008

Lech KaczyskiDonald Tusk

PO

2010 6 10-12

Waldemar Pawlak

[45]

3-3 2005-2013 [2-6]

2005 48.8 44.12 4.7 39.4

2006 67.7 61.7 6.0 55.6

2007 93.2 86.0 7.2 78.8

2008 123.3 114.7 8.7 106.0

2009 110.3 99.8 10.5 89.3

2010 138.4 126.1 12.3 113.9

2011 145.9 132.5 13.5 119.0

2012 150.4 136.9 13.6 123.3

2013 161.7 145.7 16.0 129.8

38

2008

2009 Rzeczpospolita Chiczykw trzymajmy si

mocnoAntoni Dudek

[46]

2010 850

90 [47]

COVEC

COVEC A2

A2

2011 70

2011 12 Bronisaw Komorowski

3-4

Radosaw Pyffel-CSPA

14

KGHM

39

20122016

3-42011 12

[48]

Sawomir Majman

Tomasz Skowroski

: Jerzy Pomianowski

2012-2016

Herbert WirthMaciej

Tybura

W. KrukArvid

40

WK Investment Wojciech Kruk Wojciech Henryk KrukArvid

Jonny Peng

HSW

HSW Krzysztof Trofiniak

LOT

LOTMarcin PirgWang

Rush

ZL Margaski & Mysowski

CPBBC

CPBBC

Aleksander WooszZL Margaski & Mysowski Lech Gogowski

BDM

2012 4 300

1987

4 25

4 26 -

15

-

300

150

15

100

5

- 9 6

16

41

- 17

16+1 [49]

5 LOT

Waldemar PawlakAnna Komorowska

531

9 12 16

Radosaw Sikorski13

14

2013 6 Ewa Kopacz

2013 4

600

40

2014

6

2014 5 1

5 5 27

[50] 6 30 2014 -

[51]

3.1.5

42

3.2

3.2.1

2004 5 1

282013 7 1 28

2012

12% 75% 25%

53,6 /100kg

12,8%+176,8 /100kg[52]

WTO 1994

43

()

MFN

GSP 2014

1 1 88 EBAGSP+

GSPEBAEverything But Arms 49

99%GSP+

13 GSP

17.5% 14.5% GSP

GSP

8%GSP MFN 11,5%[53]

4%-35,1%[54][54]

4,6%-64,9 10%-50%[55][56, 57]

VAT

15%27% VAT

23%8%

5%

44

3.2.2

TBT

[58] 2005

2009 [59]

[59]

[60]

45

CE

[61]

CITES

SARS

[62]

3.2.3

3.2.3.1

2000

85 000 000

1,98%

100[63] 2013

285 000 000 2011 2012

46

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD

[28]

GO_GLOBAL.PL

10%

20%40% 50%

BKG, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego,

2

15% 2 10

OECD

OECD

[64] BKG36,69%

63,31%Korporacja Ubezpiecze

Kredytw Eksportowych, KUKEKUKE [65]

OECD Dopaty

do Oprocentowania Kredytw Eksportowych, DOKE

BKG [66]

2007-2013

6.1PARP,

Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsibiorczoci

[67]

47

6.5 6.5.1

6.5.2[67]

2014-2020

3.2

2012 5,9% 2023

13%

[68]

GO_GLOBAL.PL

[69]

[70]

3.2.3.2

Wydzia

Promocji Handlu i Inwestycji, WPHiIWPHiI

WPHiI

beijing.trade.gov.pl

shanghai.trade.gov.pl[70]

Centrum Obsugi Inwestorw i

Eksporterw, COIE 16

6.2.1

48

[70]

Polska Agencja Informacji i Inwestycji Zagranicznych,

PAIiIZ 1992 PAIiIZ

2010 PAIiIZ

eksporter.gov.pl

[70]

Centrum

Wsppracy Gospodarczej Polska-Chiny 2012

gochina.pl

gopoland.gov.pl

, PChIG

chinskiraport.plpoland-invest.com

Krajowa Izba GospodarczaKIG

2014

European Union Project Innovation Centre, EUPIC

Regionalne Biuro Wojewdztwa dzkiego i Miasta d

49

3.2.4

50

4.1

4.2

2009 12 1

51

[71]

[72]

4.2.1

4.2.1.1

European Commission

European ParliamentCouncil of the European Union

Commissions Advisory

Committees

5 751 51 [73]

20

[74]

AFETINTA

Bernd Lange 2013

52

[75]2012

[76] 2013 3 17

[75]

Council of the European Union

352 27

15 15 260

65% 55% 65% 72%

[77]

General Affairs

Council, GAC, Foreign Affairs Council,

FAC,

Economic and Financial Affairs Council, ECOFIN,

Justice and Home Affairs Council, JHA,

Employment,

Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council, EPSCO,

Competetiveness Council, COMPET,

Transport,

Telecommunications and Energy Council, TTE,

Agriculture and Fisheries Council, AGRIFISH,

Environment

Council, ENVEducation, Youth, Culture and Sport

Council, EYCS; EYCS

[78]

4.2.1.2

[79]

53

7

[79] 100 [80]

376

[81]

28

28

Official Journal of the

European Union[79]

54

2013 6

Helmut Scholz

[82]

2012

[83]

4.2.1.3

regulationdirectivedecision

recommendationopinion

4-1

[81]

4-1 [81]

55

4.2.2

4.2.2.1

Sejm

Senat

460 Sejm

2011 27

Komisja Spraw Zagranicznych,

SZAKomisja Gospodarki, GOSKomisja Finans

w Publicznych, FPB[84]

Senat

100 16

Komisja Spraw Zagranicznych

Komisja Gospodarki Narodowej

Komisja Budetu i Finansw Publicznych[85]

27 8 [86]

11 4

[87]

Sejm

2014 --

2014 6 25Centrum

Studiw Polska-Azja

Radosaw Pyffel

KGHM Polska MiedSelenaMLEKPOL

Magellan Trading ShanghaiFERRO AMBER FOODS

56

Grzegorz Schetyna

Witold Waszczykowski

Waldemar Pawlak

Katarzyna Kacperczyk

Rafa BaniakAndrzej

DychaSawomir Majman

Ewa Synowiec

Filip Grzegorzewski

[88, 89]

4.2.2.2

15

10 [90]

15

,

50% 50 230

ustawa

18

57

21

14

[90]

4.2.2.3

ustawa 87

rozporzdzenie

akt prawa miejscowego[90]

rozporzdzenie Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej z moc ustawy

4.3

58

[91]

2004

2011 77,8%

[13]

2013 33%

12%

59

A

B

2011

60

5.1

5.2

5.2.1

5.2.1.1

2 5

28 28 2014 11

28 18

33

Taxation and Customs Union, TAXUD

61

Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, FPITrade,

TRADE[92]

European External Action Service, EAAS

5.2.1.2

Rada Ministrw

Prezes Rady Ministrw,

Premier

230

230

18

Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych

Ministerstwo GospodarkiMinisterstwo Finansw

5.2.2

5.2.2.1

TAXUDTRADE

A B

A

A1A2A3

A4 B

B1B2

B4

TF1 R

R5[93]

62

European Commission, Directorate-General

for Taxation and Customs Union 2014d[94]

H

H1

H2H3H4

H5H6[95]

[96]

Secretariat-General C C1

C1

[97]

16

46 154 51 37 14

10 [98]

-----

--

2004

[99]

5.2.2.2

63

BKGKUKE

BKG KUKE

[100]

BKG

[64]

2013

[101]

BKG KUKE

BKG

[102]KUKE

[65]

[68]

6.16.5.16.5.2

3.2

Kubel-Grabau A., Nojszewski . 2014

6.5.2 Portal

Funduszy Europejskich, Program Innowacyjna Gospodarka 2013 6.5.1

6.1PARPPARP

2000

64

PARP

[105]

[106]

[105]

GO_GLOBAL.PL

10

10 10

[107]

[108]

5.2.2.3

44 49

2006

trade.gov.plbeijing.trade.gov.pl shanghai.trade.gov.pl

65

[108]

1992

eksporter.gov.pl

gochina.plgopoland.gov.pl

[109]

[110]

6.2.1

[111]

Najwysza Izba

Kontroli, NIK

[112]

[113]2012

1872012

66

5%[114]

5.3

5.3.1

75%25%

2012

20%

[115]

5.3.2

77%8% KUKE 7%

6.12%

KUKE 77%

55%[116]

67

5-1 [12]

36%

27,7%

7,5%

7,4%

6,7%

5-1

62%10%

8%5%

5%9%[116]

5-2

5-2 [117]

40,6% 5,9% 21,1% 31,8%

34,5% 4,9% 23,9% 35,9%

45,0% 5,3% 20,1% 29,0%

41,8% 3,4% 17,4% 36,1%

32,5% 6,7% 20,9% 39,4%

39% 5,2% 20,7% 34%

68

62%

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81

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Natalia Kosana Goldysiak