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NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE DIALOGUE
TECHNOLOGY CHOICES IN THE TRANSITION TO A LOW
CARBON FUTURE
Date: 12 November 2014
Presenter: Gina Downes
TECHNOLOGY CHOICES…
• Electrification, including offgrid
• Internal energy efficiency gains
• Demand side management initiatives, including:
• Efficient lighting initiatives
• Solar water heating
• Solar augmentation
• Sere
• Transmission planning for connections
• Smart grid strategy
• CSP – tower
• R,T&D, including:
• other renewables
• efficient components
• clean coal technologies2014/11/12 2
AN INCONVENIENT REALITY…
2014/11/12 3
GROUNDBREAKING INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2010
2014/11/12 4
WHICH IS BEING IMPLEMENTED….
2014/11/12 5
AND SUPPORTED BY ESKOM ….
2014/11/12 6
East LondonEast London
Port ElizabethPort Elizabeth
DurbanDurban
BloemfonteinBloemfontein
UpingtonUpington
JohannesburgJohannesburg
PretoriaPretoria
PolokwanePolokwane
Cape TownCape Town
System Demand Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Years
GW
Eskom Position High conferdance of location Low conferdance of location
(a) Load Demand Forecast
40 GW
(b) Capacity Plan
RTS Coal PS etc.
40 GW
Capacity Project Funnel
Build1000
800
1775
165
Feasibility, Business
Case, Contract
Concluding
Pre-feasibility
ResearchOpportunity
Identification
PBMR
Echo 1128
Grootvlei
1520
Camden
300
Arnot P1&P2
November
600
Juliett
Oscar
6000
Mike
1000
Lima
1000
600
India
Romeo
1600
Sierra
1050
OCGT
1600
*Papa
1300
Kilo
Bravo
961
KomatiUCG
17375 MW 7800 MW 20850 MW
1050
Quebec
800
Tango90
112
4000Concentrating
Solar
100
Version CPF 1.3.14 Date: 10/05/2006
- Coal
W - Hydro
- Nuclear
- Gas
- Coal
- Coal
- Hydro
- Nuclear
- Gas
- Coal
Solar-
Transmission-
Whiskey
500
Songo ApolloHVDC Link Capacity Upgrade
* Possible 2400MW Mid Merit
Trans KalahariInterconnector
0
0
Discard Coal
0
New Coal Supply
0
90
9
90
1800
Uniform
1200
Victor
Rainbow Millenium
2000
X-ray
1775
3500
Zulu
* Brown outer circle indicates – out of Borders project
2100
Delta
Charlie872
2400
4200
500
Yankee
800
2100
Alpha
Hotel
1332
4200
Foxtrot4200
500
1800
Golf
(c) Capital project funnel>40 GW
Volume & type Spatial & transportation
2014/11/12 72014/11/12
FINAL SEA CORRIDORS FOR SIP 10 PROJECT
The “National” power corridors were then further refined and consolidated into five Major Transmission power Corridors.
These were then used as the basis for a national SEA study project by the DEA. This forms part of the SIP 10 project of the Govt. NDP.
The objective is to secure all the needed environmental approvals for Tx lines within the corridors which will be valid in perpetuity.
COSTS HAVE INCREASED…
2014/11/12 8
AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED…
2014/11/12 9
DIFFERENT DEMAND FORECASTS…
2014/11/12 10
COSTS ARE AN ISSUE, AS IS AVAILABILITY
2014/11/12 11
Cloud impact on PV power generation
DIFFERENT EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES…
2014/11/12 13
NEW COAL MINING INVESTMENTS ARE STILL REQUIRED
2014/11/12 14
graph removed possibly outdated
THANK YOU
Gina Downes
Corporate Consultant (Environmental Economics)Eskom Holdings LimitedTel +27-11-800-3099Fax +27-86-668-4767
Email [email protected]
Megawatt Park, Maxwell Drive, Sunninghill, SandtonP .O. Box 1091, Johannesburg, 2000 South Africa
