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NKS 2006 WOLFRAMSCIENCE
CONFERENCE
A SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE METHODOLOGY FOR AGENT BASED MODEL
DEVELOPMENT
ROD SIPE – NEW SCIENCE PARTNERS
June 16, 2006
Introduction
• Rod Sipe– Career Corporate IT– 20 Years At Ernst & Young– Liaison to BiosGroup
• New Science Partners– Dedicated to the Application of CAS to Business– Application Concepts– Project Management– Methodologies
Applications In The Energy Industry
Planning Marketing Production Distribution
Predictive
Modeling
Gas/Elec.
Market
Convergence
Commodity
Trading
Work Over
Economics
Alternative
Path
Models
Schedule
Optimization
Refinery
Location
Commodity
Transport
Cost
Well Production
And Maintenance
Trucking And
Pipeline
Operations
Decision
Support
Drilling
Portfolio
Hedging,
Financial
Instruments
Spark Spread Interrupt
Recovery
Applications In The Energy Industry
• Examples– Pipeline Schedule Optimization– Well Work Over Support Equipment Forecasting– Drilling Portfolio Optimization– Oil Product Delivery Truck Routing– Economic Optimization of Sales/Transportation
Options
THE TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION LIFE CYCLE
TECHNOLOGYENTHUSIASTS(INNOVATORS)
VISIONARIES(EARLY ADOPTORS) PRAGMATISTS
(EARLY MAJORITY)
CONSERVATIVES(LATE MAJORITY)
SKEPTICS(LAGGARDS)
TOTALASSIMILATION
MAINSTREET
TORNADO
BOWLING ALLEY
EARLY MARKET
CHASM
FROM “INSIDE THE TORNADO”GEOFFERY MOORE
CAS APPLICATION TO
BUSINESS IS STILL IN THE
EARLY MARKET
FREDERICK BROOK’S “PROGRAMMING SYSTEMS PRODUCT” FROM “THE MYTHICAL MAN MONTH”
PROGRAM:
“COMPLETE IN ITSELF, READY TO BE RUN BY THE AUTHOR ON THE
SYSTEM ON WHICH IT WAS DEVELOPED”
PROGRAMMING SYSTEM
“A COLLECTION OF INTERACTING PROGRAMS, COORDINATED IN FUNCTION AND DISCIPLINED IN
FORMAT, SO THAT THE ASSEMBLAGE CONSTITUTES AND
ENTIRE FACILITY FOR LARGE TASKS”
PROGRAMMING PRODUCT
“A PROGRAM THAT CAN BE RUN, TESTED, REPAIRED AND
EXTENDED BY ANYBODY”
PROGRAMMING SYSTEM PRODUCT
COSTS 9 TIMES AS MUCH TO DEVELOP AS A PROGRAM
“PROGRAM SYSTEMS PRODUCT” AGENT BASED MODEL TECHNICAL ARCHITECTURE
INTEGRATED BUSINESSARCHITECTURE
INTEGRATED DATA ARCHITECTURE
INTERFACE
PRESENTATIONDASH BOARD
Workstations
Workstation
CORPORATEINFORMATION
SYSTEMS
Servers
OPERATIONSPERSONNELINTERFACE INQUIRY AND
EXECUTIVEDASH BOARD
REPORTFORMATS
AUTOMATEDINTERFACES
TO ALLPRODUCTION
SYSTEMS
Workstation
RISK,ECONOMIC ANDOPERATIONAL
DECISION SUPPORT
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
SCOPE
OBJECTIVES
SCHEDULE
ACTIVITIES
STATUS
CHANGES/IMPLICATIONS
STEERINGCOMMITTEE
PROJECTSPONSOR
PROJECTMANAGER
PROJECTTEAM
QUARTERLY
MONTHLY/ON REQUEST
WEEKLY
DAILY
PROJECT
MONITORING
FREQUENCY OF
CONTACT
TARGETAUDIENCE
1.2 DESCRIBEBUSINESS
VALUE
1.3DESIGN
PROTOTYPE
1.4DEVELOP
PROTOTYPE
1.5TEST
PROTOTYPE
ABM SDLC Phase 1 - Proof of Concept
1.1 IDENTIFY BUSINESS
APPLICATION
2.1
APPLICATION BRIEF
BUSINESS VALUE
ASSESSMENT
VALUE REVISIONS
DESIGN REVISIONS
DEVELOPMENT REVISIONS
DESIGN SPECIFICATION
WORKINGPROTOTYPE
VALIDPROTOTYPE
ABM SDLC Phase 2 - Basic Model Development
2.5VERIFY AND VALIDATE
MODEL
2.3DESIGN
AGENTS AND AGENT RULES
2.4DEVELOP
MODEL
21. DESIGN
ARCHITECTURE
2.2DESIGN AGENT
ENVIRONMENT
1.5
3.1
VALID PROTOTYPE
MODELARCHITECTURE
AGENT/ENVIRONMENT
ITERATION
BASIC MODEL
ATTRIBUTION
TEST RESULTS
TEST RESULTS
COMPLETED’BASIC MODEL
BASICMODEL
3.3VERIFY AND VALIDATE
MODEL
3.1REFINE AGENTENVIRONMENT
3.2REFINE
AGENTS AND AGENT RULES
ABM SDLC Phase 3 - Model Refinement
2.5
4.1
BASIC MODEL
TEST RESULTS
AGENT/ENVIRONMENT
ITERATION
TEST RESULTS
REVISEDMODEL
FULLYATTRIBUTED
MODEL
4.2SET
MODELATTRIBUTES
4.3EXECUTE
MODEL
4.4ANALYZE
MODELRESULTS
4.5EXTRAPOLATE
BUSINESSIMPLICATIONS
4.6VALIDATE/CONFIRMRESULTS
ABM SDLC Phase 4 - Model Application
4.1IDENTIFY AND
ACCESSDATA
3.3
5.1
FULLY ATTRIBUTED
MODEL
TARGETDATABASE
ADDITIONAL/REVISEDMODEL
ATTRIBUTES
VALID MODEL DATA SETS
INVALIDEXPECTATIONS
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS
PROVENMODEL
MODEL ATTRIBUTE REVISIONS
5.2 DESGIN MODELINTERFACES/
ENHANCEMENTS
5.3 DESIGN
DATA ACCESS
INTERFACE
5.4MODIFY/ENHANCE
MODEL
5.6PREPARE FOR
IMPLEMENTATION
5.7IMPLEMENTMODEL IN
PRODUCTION
5.1DEFINE
PRODUCTIONSYSTEM
REQUIREMENTS
ABM SDLC Phase 5 - Model Integration
5.5TEST
PRODUCTION SYSTEM
4.6
TEST RESULTS
PROVENMODEL
TECHNCIAL APPLICATIONAND
BUSINESS STANDARDS
PRODUCTIONMODEL
SPECIFICATION
DATA ACCESSDESIGN
TECHNICALIMPLEMENTATION
PACKAGE
PRODUCTIONSOFTWARE
CONFIGURATION
BUSINESSIMPLEMENTATION
PACKAGE
Model Types, Description, Value and Users
Model
Type
Description Value User
Proof of
Concept
Proves Feasibility Funding Core Development
Team
Baseline
Model
Establishes the Development Environment
Closure on Basic Model Performance
CDT, Subject Matter Experts
Refined
Model
Complete Enough to Begin Getting Business Answers
Business Insight Through Iteration and Observation
CDT, SME
Expert Interpretation Operated by Experts Who Interpret the Results
Answer Specific Situational Questions
SME
Decision Support Answers Pre-Specified, Recurring Questions
Operational Decision Support
“Super Users”
Integrated Production Model Plays a Role in Regularly Scheduled Business Activities
Optimization of Production Process
Line Personnel
Concepts of CAS In Business
• High Probability Scenarios– Multiple Factors– Frequent Iteration– Random Disturbance– Short Cycle Times– Many Possible Solutions
• Practical Expectations– Know Your Potential Business Value– Optimization of What?– Actionable Results
• What Do You Know?– Business Process Models– Entities and Attributes
• What Are The Key Factors• How Do They Behave
Concepts of CAS In Business
• What Is Knowable– Butterfly Effect– Answers Vs. Tendencies
• Data Access Architecture– Global View– Business Processes– Technical Fragmentation
• Research And Development, Not Systems Development– A New Understanding– Iteration– The Right To Not Reach The Objective
• The “Breakthrough Result”– Counter-Intuitive Solutions
OBSERVATIONS
State of the Science:
-Stu’s Cambrian Explosion Model
-Limited “Modeling Vocabulary”
Attitudes:
-Assumptions
-Expectations
-Precedent
-Status Quo
Business Value:
-Counter Intuitive
-Value Proposition
-Lack of Self Knowledge
-Lack of Data Access
Methodology:
-R&D vs. Systems Development
-Systems Development Life Cycle Methodology Meets The Scientific Method
