TRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH

VIN O TO SAU I HC

----------------------

MN: KINH T V M

ti:

N CNG CHU U

V BI HC CHO VIT NAM

GVHD: TS. TRN TH BCH DUNG

Nhm: 03

Lp: Cao hc m 3 kha 22

TP. H Ch Minh, thng 03 nm 2013

TRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH

VIN O TO SAU I HC

----------------------

MN: KINH T V M

ti:

N CNG CHU U

V BI HC CHO VIT NAM

Nhm thc hin:

1. Dng Ngc nh

2. ng Hong Chin

3. Nguyn Th Ngc Dim

4. Trn Vn nh

5. V Ngc Sn

6. V Nguyn Ton

7. ng Th Thy Trang

8. Nguyn Quc Vit

TP. H Ch Minh, thng 03 nm 2013

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

Page 1

MC LC

1. Tng quan l thuyt v n cng.....................................................................................................2

1.1 Khi nim .................................................................................................................................2

1.2 Nguyn nhn .............................................................................................................................3

1.3 Tc ng n kinh t - x hi .....................................................................................................3

1.4 Gii php ..................................................................................................................................3

2. Khng hong n chu u..............................................................................................................4

2.1 Din bin khng hong n cng chu u ....................................................................................4

2.2 Nguyn nhn .............................................................................................................................6

2.2.1 Nguyn nhn bn trong........................................................................................................6

2.2.2. Nguyn nhn bn ngoi ......................................................................................................7

3. N cng ti Vit Nam ....................................................................................................................9

3.1 Tnh trng n cng ti Vit Nam.................................................................................................9

3.2 Nguy c n cng ti Vit Nam .................................................................................................10

3.3 N cng chu u nh hng n Vit Nam...............................................................................12

3.4 Bi hc rt ra t n cng chu u v gii php..........................................................................13

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

Page 2

1. Tng quan l thuyt v n cng

1.1 Khi nim

Theo quan im ca ngn hng th gii (WB): N cng bao gm tt c cc khon

n ca chnh ph, n c chnh ph bo lnh, n chnh quyn a phng. Hin tng

ny xut hin khi thu khng b chi.

N chnh ph l khon n pht sinh t cc khon vay trong nc (pht hnh tri

phiu, vay ca Ngn hng), nc ngoi (cc th ch siu quc gia nh Qu tin t Quc

t - IMF), c k kt, pht hnh nhn danh Nh nc, nhn danh chnh ph hoc cc

khon vay khc do B Ti chnh k kt, pht hnh, y quyn pht hnh theo quy nh ca

php lut. N chnh ph khng bao gm khon n do Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

pht hnh nhm thc hin chnh sch tin t trong tng thi k. N chnh ph thng

c vay ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch, nn ni cch khc, n chnh ph l thm ht

ngn sch ly k n mt thi im no . d hnh dung quy m ca n chnh ph,

ngi ta thng o xem khon n ny bng bao nhiu phn trm so vi Tng sn phm

quc ni (GDP). N chnh ph thng chim t trng ln trong n cng ca mt quc

gia v gy ra nhng tc ng mnh m n nn kinh t.

N c chnh ph bo lnh l khon n ca doanh nghip, t chc ti chnh, tn

dng vay trong nc, nc ngoi c chnh ph bo lnh.

N chnh quyn a phng l khon n do y ban nhn dn tnh, thnh ph trc

thuc trung ng k kt, pht hnh hoc u quyn pht hnh. N ca chnh quyn a

phng thng khng chim t trng ln trong N cng, v ngn sch a phng ch

yu t trung ng h tr, chi tr; v php lut lun quy nh cht ch t l n chnh

quyn a phng c vay so vi ngn sch c cp, hay ch c vay t ngun no

v dng vo khon g.

Ngoi ra c th phn loi n chnh ph theo ngun vay: gm vay trong nc v

vay nc ngoi, hoc theo thi gian vay: gm vay ngn hn, vay trung v di hn.

V mt c bn, t l n ca chnh ph chim t trng ln trong N cng ni

chung, v gy ra nhng tc ng mnh m n nn kinh t.

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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1.2 Nguyn nhn

- Chnh ph chi tiu ngn sch qu mc hoc phi lin tip pht hnh ngn sch

m bo cc nhu cu an sinh x hi, dn n thm ht ngn sch trm trng.

- Chnh ph gim thu trong khi tng chi.

- Cc hot ng ngm trong nn kinh t, trn thu gy tht thu ngn sch.

- Chnh ph s dng cc khon vay khng hiu qu, tham nhng v thiu minh

bch trong qun l lm cho nh u t mt nim tin vo nn kinh t.

- S gi ha dn s.

- Mc tit kim trong nc gim dn n tnh trng phi vay mn t bn ngoi.

1.3 Tc ng n kinh t - x hi

N cng xy ra trn quy m ln s gy ra khng hong trong x hi. Thng

thng chnh ph cn phi vay vn gii quyt n cng, tuy nhin nhng yu cu ca

cc t chc ti chnh quc t thng ngt ngo, to ra sc p ln chnh ph buc phi

gim cc hot ng tr cp, cc chnh sch an sinh x hi. Bn cnh , chnh ph cn

tng thu b p li vo ngn sch. Mc khc nhng quc gia ny, tnh trng tham

nhng v khng minh bch thng ph bin, dn n s si mn nim tin ca cng

chng v nh u t vo chnh ph. Chnh nhng iu c th lm cho tnh hnh kinh t

- chnh tr lun trong tnh trng bt n ti bt c quc gia no ang xy ra n cng. Thm

ch lm cho chnh ph sp .

. Khi xy ra n cng, cc t chc tn dng s h thp bc tn nhim ca chnh ph

v khi mun huy ng c vn phi mt nhiu chi ph hn, tri phiu ca chnh ph

mt gi hoc thm ch l khng c chp nhn. Nn kinh t tr thnh mc tiu tn cng

ca cc th lc u c quc t.

1.4 Gii php

C nhiu gii php gii quyt n cng, ty tnh hnh c th m chnh ph cc

quc gia c th p dng, nh vay n ngun vn t trong nc v nc ngoi; hon chnh

b my qun l nh nc; xy dng chin lc vay n cng r rng v theo mt quy

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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trnh di hn; minh bch trong cng b thng tin v tng cng c ch gim st ti chnh;

t chc nh gi mc hiu qu cc trng hp vay n rt kinh nghim trong

tng lai; nng cao hiu qu s dng vn v cui cng l y mnh hp tc quc t.

2. Khng hong n chu u

2.1 Din bin khng hong n cng chu u

T cui nm 2009, lo ngi v cuc khng hong n quc gia gia tng gia cc nh

u t lin quan n mt s nc chu u, mi lo s ny tng ln vo u nm 2010.

Cc quc gia c v n cng trong khu vc chu u bao gm cc thnh vin Hy Lp,

Ireland, Italia, Ty Ban Nha v B o Nha, v cng c mt s khu vc chu u khng

thuc Lin minh chu u (EU). c bit l t Ireland, quc gia mi b cuc nh hng

ti chnh ln nht trong nm 2008. cc khong n cng tng mnh cho cc chnh ph EU

do k hoch gii cu ngn hng. Thng 11/2009. Th tng Hy Lp cho bit thm ht

ngn sch nm 2009 s mc 12,7% GDP, cao gp i con s cng b trc v s c

gng cu Hy Lp khi kh nng v n.

Ngy 22/12/2009, Moodys xp hng n cng Hy Lp t A1 xung mc A2 bi

thm ht ngn sch ca nc ny tng cao. y l c quan th ba h xp hng tn dng

ca Hy Lp. Ngy 14/01/2010, Chnh ph Hy Lp cng b k hoch bnh n, tuyn b

mun gim thm ht ngn sch xung mc 208% GDP vo nm 2012. Ngy 29/01/2010,

Chnh ph Ty Ban Nha cng b k hoch tit kim 50 t euro tng tng 70 t USD,

trong tng s tin chi tiu gim tng ng 4% GDP. Lng lao ng trong lnh vc

cng gim 4%. Ngy 11/4/2010, B trng ti chnh cc nc thuc khu vc ng tin

chung chu u chp thun k hoch 30 t euro dnh cho Hy lp, tuy nhin Hy Lp tuyn

b khng cn. Ngy 23/4/2010, Hy Lp cu cu EU v IMF. Ngy 02/5/2010, Th tng

Hy Lp cho bit, chnh ph nc ny t c tha thun vi EU v IMF nhn

c gi gii cu, i li nc ny phi gim chi tiu 30 t euro trong 3 nm ti. Ngy

9/5/2010, IMF n phng chp thun trc mt phn k hoch gii cu, cung cp lp

tc 5,5 t euro.

Ngy 10/5/2010, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch kinh t ton cu a ra k hoch

khn cp tr gi 750 t euro h tr th trng ti chnh v vc dy ng euro, ngn

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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ng tin ny chu nh hng t hi t khng hong n Hy Lp. Gi gii cu bao gm

440 t euro t cc nc thuc khu vc ng tin chung chu u, 60 t euro t cng c

n ca chu u. IMF ng gp 250 t euro, tng s tin ln n 750 t euro, tng

ng khong gn 1.000 t USD tnh theo t gi thi im . Gi gii cu Hy Lp

nhn c bao gm 110 t euro trong 3 nm. y l nc u tin ti khu vc ng tin

chung chu u c h tr. Chnh ph c ng gp 22,4 t euro tng ng 30 t

USD cho k hoch cu Hy Lp.

Ngy 27/5/2010, Quc hi Ty Ban Nha chp thun k hoch tht cht ngn sch

nhm tit kim 15 t euro tng ng 18,4 t USD.

Ngy 18/5/2010, Chnh ph c, trong n lc ngn hot ng u c ti chnh

c coi nh nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n, cng b cm bn khng v cn c

c phiu ca 10 t chc ti chnh ln nht ti c, tri phiu chnh ph v hp ng hon

i v n tn dng.

Ngy 25/5/2010, Ni cc Italia b phiu thng qua k hoch tht cht ngn sch,

tit kim 24 t euro vi mc tiu n nm 2012 a thm ht ngn sch GDP t mc

5,3% ca nm 2009 v mc 2,7% GDP.

Ngy 28/5/2010, Fitch h xp hng tn dng ca Ty Ban Nha t AAA xung

AA+ bi n tiu dng v doanh nghip ti nc ny tng ln mc qu cao, l cha k

n n cng ang mc ng bo ng.

Ngy 29/5/2010, hng ngn ngi biu tnh Lisbon - B o Nha phn i

k hoch tht cht ngn sch ca Chnh ph.

Ngy 7/6/2010, ng ca Th tng c chp thun k hoch tht cht ngn sch

v thu hon thnh mc tiu a thm ht ngn sch ca c v mc quy nh ca

lin minh Chu u trong khong thi gian t nay n nm 2013.

Ngy 8/6/2010, Cng on Ty Ban Nha cng b 75% ngi lao ng trong lnh

vc cng khng i lm th hin s phn i k hoch tht cht chi tiu ca Chnh ph.

T l lm pht ca Hy Lp thng 5/2010 tng 5,4%, vt mi k vng ca cc chuyn

gia v ln mc cao nht t thng 8/1997.

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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Ngy 10/6/2010, tha thun ci t th trng lao ng Ty Ban Nha sp . Chnh

ph buc phi p dng quy nh tuyn dng v sa thi lng lo hn d khng c s h tr

ca Nghip on Lao ng.

Ngy 27/11/2011, li sut tri phiu k hn 10 nm ca chnh ph Ty Ban Nha

tng ln 6,78%, l mc cao nht k t khi gia nhp EU.

Ngy 21/12/2011, ng Rajoy nhm chc th tng Ty Ban Nha, hnh thnh nn

chnh ph mi, nh du s sp ca chnh ph th 5 ti chu u sau Italia, Hy Lp,

B o Nha, Ireland do cuc khng hong.

Ngy 14/01/2012, Standard & Poors h mc tn nhim ca Php xung 1 bc (t

AAA xung AA+) v Italia xung BBB+ cng vi trin vng tiu cc.

Ngy 6/2/2012 Chnh ph Romania l chnh ph th 6 chu u sp do khng

hong n.

Ngy 25/6/2012, Cyprus chnh thc tr thnh nc th 5 trong khu vc cc nc

s dng ng tin chung euro phi xin cu tr t Qu Bnh n ti chnh chu u. Ngy

16/3/2013, cc b trng b ti chnh khu vc Eurozone v IMF ng cung cp cho

Cyprus gi cu tr tr gi 10 t euro.

Theo Eurostat, tnh chung trn ton Lin minh chu u, t l tht nghip trong

thng 1 nm 2013 cng tng ln mc 10,8% so vi 10,7% trong thng 12 nm 2012. Tnh

n thi im ny, c 26,2 triu ngi tht nghip ti 27 nc thnh vin EU. D

on t l tht nghip nm 2013 s vt qu 12%.

2.2 Nguyn nhn

C th chia nguyn nhn xy ra tnh trng n cng do 2 nhm chnh l nguyn

nhn bn trong v bn ngoi.

2.2.1 Nguyn nhn bn trong

Cuc khng hong bt ngun t Hy Lp: Chnh ph Hy Lp phm sai lm

trong qun l v khng trung thc khi thng bo s liu kinh t trong nhiu nm. Chnh

s mt nim tin lm cho Hy Lp gii quyt khng hong cng kh khn. Bt k quyt

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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nh no ca chnh ph Hy Lp v gii quyt vn ngn sch u b hoi nghi, do

cng kh cho gii quyt khng hong. ngoi vic vn u t chy khi Hy Lp, khong

30% hot ng ca nn kinh t nc ny c gian ln, 90% nhng ngi c thu nhp cao

khai thu nhp di 30.000 euro/nm nhm trnh np thu. Bn cnh , vic Nh th,

mt trong nhng ch s hu qu t ln nht quc gia ny, li khng phi tr mt ng

thu no. Mc d cc nh dn ch x hi yu cu Nh th phi tr thu nh mi ngi

khc, nhng cho n nay cha thy c bin php no c a ra p dng.

Cc chnh ph thu khng chi: cc nh phn tch kinh t u cho rng, khng

hong n cng chu u l do chi tiu ca cc chnh ph qu ln. Vic chi tiu qu ln

to ra thm ht ngn sch v khng hong n cng (lng cao cho cc nh chnh tr,

cng chc, h thng an sinh x hi v lao ng, ch ngh hu sm).

Vn t chc ti chnh v iu hnh kinh t ca EU: Do vn v c cu nn

EU c hn ch v iu hnh nn kinh t ca Khi, cc chnh sch tin t khng i cng

vi ci cch thu thu v lao ng. EU v Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB) cng

phn ng chm vi cc nn kinh t khi gp khng hong.

p lc ca cc nhm ti phit: Cc nh u c, cc t chc ti chnh ln v cc

trung tm quyn lc kinh t kinh t thuyt phc c cc chnh ph ch iu chnh th

ch ch khng p dng cc bin php ci cch cc th ch. Chnh ph cc nc phi tn

nhiu t euro h tr cc ngn hng v cho cc chng trnh h tr hot ng kinh t

nhm cu ngn hng v nn kinh t khng b v. iu ny khng trnh khi vic n

cng gia tng.

Vn chnh sch kinh t t do mi: Nhiu nh nghin cu kinh t cho rng

cuc khng khong hin nay l do chnh sch kinh t t do gy ra. Do vy, cc quc gia

mun thot khi cn phi t b chnh sch kinh t t do mi v chuyn sang chnh sch

kinh t ca Keynes, chnh sch kch cu.

2.2.2. Nguyn nhn bn ngoi

Chin dch tn cng lm suy yu ng euro: Ngay t thng 02/2010, B trng

xy dng Ty Ban Nha Jos Blanco cho rng c mt chin dch tn cng ng euro trn

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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cc th trng th gii m mc tin nhm vo Ty Ban Nha. Gii u c ang thc hin

cc chin dch nhm h thp ng euro v kim li. H ch yu u c trong ngn hn.

Cng c mt s nh kinh t cho rng cuc khng hong ny do Anh v Hoa K to ra

nhm h ng euro. Bi theo h, Anh lui kh chu vi ng euro, cn Hoa K th cm

thy b ng euro e do, vic tn cng ng euro cng chuyn hng d lun v s

yu km ca ng la M v ng Bng Anh.

Cc c quan nh gi ri ro tri phiu vo th trng ti chnh: th trng ti

chnh ng vai tr gy bt n tnh hnh kinh t va qua. Cc c quan nh gi Standard &

Poors v Fitch bt u nh gi n ca Hy Lp, h thp tri phiu ca nc ny thnh

tri phiu rc. K t , li sut tri phiu ca chnh ph Hy Lp khng ngng tng, th

trng chng khon Hy Lp lin tc gim. Joseph Stiglitz cng cho rng, cc c quan

nh gi ri ro nh Standard & Poors (S&P), Moodys v Fitch l nhn t gp phn vo

s bt n ca cc th trng, y cc nc vo khng hong.

Hot ng u c ti chnh: Mc nh ca u c l lm tng li sut tri phiu

chnh ph cao nht c th thu li. Thc t, n cng c thng lng thng qua cc

ngn hng t nhn v gi do cc ngn hng ny n nh. Cc t chc ti chnh nh Alpha

Bank, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, ngn hng thng mi nh ING v socit

Genrale c nhiu c hi u c. Pht khai ha u tin cho u c l vic IMF a ra

bo co ngy 22/4/2010, theo nn kinh t B o Nha ang xu i. Kinh t B o

Nha s tng trng thp hn d bo v s khng gim c thm ht: thm ht cng s

l 7,5% GDP, d bo trc l 6,6% tht nghip s mc t 10-11%. Hy qu, cc tri

phiu 10 nm ca B o Nha vc qua ngng 4,77% v hin B o Nha cng Hy

Lp, Ireland l nhng nc chn chn khng thc hin gim n cng, mc d n cng

ca B o Nha ch l 86% GDP.

Mi trng quc t khng thun li: M e do a ra cc s liu tiu cc ca

cc doanh nghip l cho th trng chng khon M gim. i ph vi khng khong,

cc nh u t buc phi ri khi cc nc ny, lm cho cc nc ri vo cnh thiu tin.

Vn u t b rt khi Hy Lp khng ngng tng. Ch tnh ring trong thng 1/2010 c

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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8 n 10 t euro b rt khi Hy Lp, con s ny cao hn s tin tri phiu m chnh ph

Hy Lp pht hnh ln gn y nht.

Tm li, cuc khng hong n cng ca cc nc chu u bt ngun t nhiu

nguyn nhn, c bn trong ln bn ngoi. m mu v ca gii ti phit tip tc gy

p lc ln th trng ti chnh nhm u c kim li trong ngn hn. Gi cu tr 750 t

euro c tc dng trong ngn hn, nhng v trung hn, nguy c tim n vn cn cao, vn

cn c nghi ng v cc mn n cng v s bt n ti chnh. Tnh hnh ny c th nh

hng n nn kinh t chu u, nhng cng c th gy ra hiu ng i vi c th gii.

3. N cng ti Vit Nam

3.1 Tnh trng n cng ti Vit Nam

Theo cng b ca Tp ch Kinh t (The Economist), t l n cng nm 2011 ca

Vit Nam l 50,9% GDP, d kin nm 2012 t l ny l 55,4%. Mc d t l n ny vn

nm trong tm kim sot (di 60% GDP theo cch tnh ch tiu t l n cng trn GDP

ca Lin hip quc) nhng n qu cao so vi mc ph bin c khuyn co cc nn

kinh t ang pht trin (t 30-40%) v so vi mt s nn kinh t mi ni nh Trung Quc

(17,4%), Indonesia (25,6%).

Hnh 1: T l n cng/GDP t nm 2001 n nm 2012

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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Ngoi ra, cng theo The Economist, mc n cng tnh trn u ngi ca Vit

Nam nm 2011 l 638,55 USD, d kin 2012 tng ln 698,71 USD. Nu so snh vi

817,22 USD (Trung Quc), 808,52 USD (Indonesia), 4.626,4 USD (Malays ia), 1.195,29

USD (Philippines), 2.261,78 USD (Thi Lan) th y l con s khng cao.

Khon mc S liu Ghi ch

Tng s vn vay ODA v vay u

i nc ngoi 71,7 t USD

Tng s vn cam kt vay thng

mi nc ngoi 4,08 t USD

D n cc d n cho vay li ca

Chnh ph 10,3 t USD Tng ng 8.5% GDP

S lng cc d n cho vay li 580 d n 55 d n n qu hn

Tng s d n cng 55.4% Gim 1.9% so vi 2010

Bng 1: Tnh hnh vay n, tnh n 31/12/2012

Tuy nhin, nu so mc n cng bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam vo nm 2001

xp x 112 USD; th trong vng 10 nm, con s ny tng gp 6 ln, cho thy gnh

nng n tng lai ln u ngi dn ngy cng tng.

Tnh ra t nm 2007 n cui nm 2011, n cng ca Vit Nam tng khong

25% (trung bnh 5%/nm). Vi khon n ny, cn c vo thi im o hn th t nay

n 2015 mi nm Vit Nam phi tr n gc v li cho nc ngoi gn 1,5 t USD v

mc tr n cao nht s ri vo nm 2020 vi con s ln n 2,4 t USD.

3.2 Nguy c n cng ti Vit Nam

Xu hng n cng ti nc ta: Mt thc t ng bun l n cng nc ta lin

tc tng ch khng gim qua cc nm. C th nh giai on 2001-2009 tc tng trung

bnh ca n cng nc ta l 18%/nm, gp 3 ln tc tng GDP. Bn cnh , Ngn

sch nc ta cng lin tc thm ht trung bnh khong 5% GDP. Nh vy, r rng hng

nm chng ta khng h c d tr n m phi vay thm n mi tr nhng mn n

n hn v li sut ca nhng mn n cn li.

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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Vay vn nc ngoi: Trong nhng nm qua h s ICOR ca Vit Nam c xu

hng tng, iu c ngha l hiu qu cc lnh vc u t cng l khng cao. Vn

vay khng c s dng hp l, dn tri v gy tht thot.

Hnh 2: H s ICOR Vit Nam qua cc giai on

Vay vn nhng li khng s dng ng vn vay c hiu qu, sinh ra li tr n,

nu xu hng ny khng sm c ci thin, ta s chng my chc ri vo khng hong

n cng. V d in hnh l trng hp Vinashin n 1 t USD tri phiu do chnh ph

bo lnh.

T gi tng: N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam kh a dng v c cu tin vay. Trn l

thuyt, iu ny c cho l c th hn ch ri ro v t gi, gim p lc ln ngha v tr

n nc ngoi ca chnh ph. n thi hn tr n, t gi tng lm gia tng tng s n

nc ngoi.

Nhng khong n cng ti doanh nghip ca Vit Nam c l khng phi

nhng khon n c ghi nhn trn s sch. Theo , nhng khon n xu ca khu vc

doanh nghip nh nc m rt c th s phi dng ngn sch nh nc tr mi l mm

mng e da tnh bn vng ca n cng Vit Nam. C th, khon n nc ngoi ca khu

vc t nhn v doanh nghip nh nc khng c chnh ph bo lnh chim 11,1%

GDP. Ngoi ra, n trong nc ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc theo ghi nhn trong

n Ti cu trc DNNN ca B Ti chnh nm 2012 cng chim xp x khong 16,5%.

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

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3.3 N cng chu u nh hng n Vit Nam

Xut khu gim: Cuc khng hong n chu u ko theo mt lot h qu tt

yu: tc phc hi kinh t th gii chm li, tnh hnh tht nghip v lm pht tng cao,

ng euro mt gi, tng trng GDP gim st, lm cho thu nhp thc t ngi dn v cu

tiu dng vi hng nhp khu gim mnh. iu ny s gy ra nhng tc ng tiu cc

n xut khu v tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam, vi mc suy gim khong 1,7% GDP

trong nm 2010, cao th ba ch sau Trung Quc (2,8%) v Anh (1,9%). V vy, nu

khng c nhng chnh sch phn ng kp thi h tr xut khu th trin vng trung hn

i vi xut khu ca Vit Nam s gp nhiu kh khn.

Li sut thp cc nc: trong khi Vit Nam li cao s bt li v chi ph cnh

tranh ca doanh nghip Vit Nam. Do lo ngi tc ng tiu cc t khng hong n cng,

nhiu ngn hng trung ng cc nc pht trin vn duy tr mc li sut sn thp lch s

nhm kch thch s phc hi kinh t v chp nhn lm pht trong chng mc nht nh.

Li sut c bn tim cn 0% hu ht cc nc: FED (M) : 0,25%; ECB (EU) : 1%;

BOE (Anh) : 0,5%; Nht Bn 0,1%. Ngc li Vit Nam, li sut huy ng ln li sut

cho vay vn ng mc cao. Cc doanh nghip phi vay vn vi li sut khong 14-

16%/nm vi k hn ngn v khong 14,5-17%/nm vi k hn trung, di hn.Nu tnh

n lm pht c cho nm 2010 l di 10%, doanh nghip phi t mc t sut li

nhun trn 24-27%, l mc cao so vi t sut li nhun trn vn ch s hu bnh qun ca

cc ngnh trong nm 2009 (khong 20%).

u t trc tip nc ngoi gim: Khng hong n cng chu u c th to ra

tc ng tri chiu hon ton vi lung vn FDI trn phm vi ton cu.

Gi vng bng n: Cc nh u t trn th gii ang tm vng nh mt ni tr n

an ton trc nguy c cuc khng hong n chu u ngy mt lan rng, lm cho gi

vng trong thi gian qua tng mnh, ln mc trn 1.300 USD/ounce. iu ny phn nh

nhu cu v d tr an ton hn so vi ng tin giy.

Bo him ri ro tn dng xu hng tng ln: Vn Hy Lp ang lm cho cc

nh u t trn th gii cng tr nn thn trng hn vi cc quc gia c vn nn tng t

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

Page 13

.iu ny s l mt cn tr rt ln trong vic thu ht cc lung vn u t gin tip, trc

tip v cho vay t nc ngoi.

Bin ng t gi hi oi rt kh lng

3.4 Bi hc rt ra t n cng chu u v gii php

Bi hc th nht: s dng vn hp l v c hiu qu. Nhng nc i vay n

cn phi thc rng y l nhng ng tin i vay mn, cn phi s dng chng sao

cho hp l, c hiu qu, cn phi lm cho tin ra tin nh vy mi mong tr c n

v pht trin nn kinh t nc mnh, s dng n to ra ng lc pht trin kinh t. Khi

nn kinh t pht trin, s dng nhng ng tin sinh li ny tr n. Nu s dng

km hiu qu th quc gia s gp tht bi trong vic qun l n v sm b v n. Mt

kha cnh khc trong vn ny, l khng nn chy theo nhng cng trnh d n ho

nhong, s, khng ph hp vi trnh pht trin ca nn kinh t nh Hy Lp cho

Olympics Athen 2000. Chnh s vung tay qu trn ca Hy Lp lc cng l nguyn

nhn khng hong n cng v sau.

i vi Vit Nam, chnh ph nn xem xt li cc d n, cng trnh mang tnh cht

di hn, tiu tn nhiu tin ca. Thay vo chnh ph tp trung vo nhng d n cp

thit, ng thi r sot nhng doanh nghip nh nc hot ng km hiu qu, u t

trn lan x l kp thi, hn ch ri ro v tn tht khi bo lnh hoc cu tr.

Bi hc th 2: qun l v n cng. y l bi hc cho bt k nn kinh t no. Nu

l l, nn kinh t c th sp v phi cn trng trong chi tiu. Vn y l khng

nn chi qu nhiu tin, nhng bao nhiu cho th mi quc gia li mt khc. Nu cho

rng chi tiu khng nhiu th khng xy ra khng hong l khng ng (cuc khng

hong ti chnh chu xy ra nm 1997 khi Thi Lan ch n khong 15% GDP). Do

vn t ra l lun thc v kim sot mc n ph hp vi nn kinh t t nc. C

hi c tip cn d dng ngun tn dng r khi gia nhp Eurozone lm cho chnh ph

Hy Lp chi tiu qu tay m qun ngha v phi tr n trong tng lai.

Vit Nam hin nay c Lut qun l n cng quy nh r i tng, phm vi

iu chnh, h thng chi tiu kim sot n,... Do , c quan qun l c mt c s

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

Page 14

php l r rng thc hin trch nhim ca mnh trong vic qun l n cng. Tuy

nhin, vic qun l n cng vn cn mt s vn nh: quyn hn qun l cn chng

cho, nng lc cc b cn hn ch, i vi cc khon n ca doanh nghip nh nc cn

phi minh bch hn hoc c c ch qun l ring, c ch cnh bo sm cn hn ch,...

Bi hc th ba: minh bch trong vic cng b cc khon vay, s dng cc

khon vay, t nng cao nim tin nh u t. Cuc khng hong n cng bt u t

Hy Lp. Nguyn nhn xut pht t vic gia nhp Eurozone, chnh ph Hy Lp s dng

mt s th thut che giu tnh trng n cng ca mnh v a ra nhng con s ph hp

vi tiu chun m EU ra. Tuy nhin, sau nhng ln cng b khng khp nhau, cc nh

u t bt u hoi nghi v thm ht ngn sch Hy Lp. Sau , c cc cuc iu tra

tnh hnh n cng ca Hy Lp. Khi s tht c vn mn, mt ln sng rt vn t ra

khi cc ngn hng Hy Lp y Hy Lp vo tnh trng kh khn trong vic huy ng vn

trn trng quc t. y chnh l hu qu ca vic khng minh bch, gian ln s liu

thng k, k ton.

i vi Vit Nam, tuy vn cha nghim trng nhng c mt s mm mng

ca s thiu minh bch cng khai ca chnh ph v tnh hnh n cng. B Ti chnh

cng l c quan chu trch nhim gim st v cng b s n cng nc ta, tuy nhin c

quan ny cng ch mi a ra nhng con s n nc ngoi, cha c mt thng k chi tit

v cc khon n cng. Trong khi , vic tinh ton n cng ca mi c quan, ng thi

im li c s khc nhau, trong nm 2009 theo nh B Ti chnh th n cng Vit Nam

chim 44,7% cn theo mt bo co khc cng thuc B Ti chnh con s l 52,6%.

ng thi con s B Ti chnh a ra cng chnh lch so vi con s ca World Bank l

47,5%. iu ny xut pht t vic Vit Nam khng nht qun trong vic tnh n cng

theo thng l quc t, nhiu khong n cn nhp nhng vi nhau. Ngoi ra cng trong

vic qun l n doanh nghip nh nc chnh ph khng c c ch r rng cho b phn

ny n n chnh ph phi chu hu qu khi b phn ny gp kh khn. Chnh v iu

lm cho mc tn nhim ca Vit Nam b h thp. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam c li th l c

lp trong chnh sch iu tit tin t ch khng b p buc nh trong khi EU.

Nhm 3 mn Kinh t v m

Page 15

Bi hc th t: xy dng chin lc, k hoch tr n. Ngi khng l Hy

Lp ch v lo chi tiu m qun i ngha v tr n dn n tnh trng n chng cht.

khng phi chu nh Hy Lp, chng ta cn thit phi thc y vic xy dng k hoch tr

lng nh trong Lut Qun l n cng ban hnh. l vic xy dng k hoch tr n

bng bn cng c:

Th nht, chin lc di hn v n cng gm cc ni dung nh nh gi thc

trng n cng v cng tc qun l trong giai on thc hin chin lc trc ; mc

tiu, nh hng huy ng s dng vn vay v qun l n cng. Cn c xy dng

chin lc hi hn v n cng l k hoch pht trin kinh t x hi trong 5 nm v 10

nm v cc lnh vc, vng lnh th cng nh cc ngh quyt, quyt nh v ch trng

huy ng, s dng vn vay v qun l n ca chnh ph.

Th hai, chng trnh qun l n trung hn gm cc mc tiu, nhim v v gii

php v huy ng, s dng vn vay, tr n v c ch, chnh sch, t chc qun l n

trong giai on 3 nm lin k thc hin cc ch tiu an ton v n c Quc hi

xc nh trong mc tiu, nh hng huy ng, s dng vn vay v qun l n cng.

Th ba, k hoch vay, tr n chi tit hng nm ca chnh ph c ni dung gm: K

hoch vay trong nc (gm k hoch huy ng vn cho ngn sch nh nc v k hoch

huy ng vn cho u t pht trin); k hoch vay nc ngoi thng qua cc hnh thc

nh ODA, vay u i, vay thng mi; k hoch tr n c chi tit theo ch n v c k

hoch tr n gc, tr li, tr n trong nc, tr n nc ngoi.

Th t l cc ch tiu an ton v gim st n cng. Cc ch tiu gim st n cng,

n nc ngoi ca quc gia bao gm: n cng so vi GDP, n nc ngoi ca quc gia

so vi GDP, ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi tng kim ngch xut nhp

khu,