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Noise-based Ballistic Wave Passive Seismic Monitoring – Part 1: Body-waves Journal: Geophysical Journal International Manuscript ID GJI-18-1026.R1 Manuscript Type: Research Paper Date Submitted by the Author: 17-Apr-2019 Complete List of Authors: Brenguier, Florent ; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre Courbis, Roméo; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre; Sisprobe Mordret, Aurélien; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Campman, Xander; Shell International Exploration and Production B.V. Boué, Pierre; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre Chmiel, Małgorzata; Sisprobe; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre Takano, Tomoya; Tohoku Univ., Solid Earth Physics Laboratory Lecocq, Thomas; Royal Observatory of Belgium, Seismology - Gravimetry Van der Veen, Wim ; Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV Postif, Sophie; Shell International Exploration and Production B.V. Hollis, Daniel; Sisprobe Keywords: Volcano monitoring < VOLCANOLOGY, Interferometry < GEOPHYSICAL METHODS, Seismic noise < SEISMOLOGY, Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction < SEISMOLOGY, Induced seismicity < SEISMOLOGY Geophysical Journal International

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Noise-based Ballistic Wave Passive Seismic Monitoring – Part 1: Body-waves

Journal: Geophysical Journal International

Manuscript ID GJI-18-1026.R1

Manuscript Type: Research Paper

Date Submitted by the Author: 17-Apr-2019

Complete List of Authors: Brenguier, Florent ; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerreCourbis, Roméo; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre; SisprobeMordret, Aurélien; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary SciencesCampman, Xander; Shell International Exploration and Production B.V.Boué, Pierre; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerreChmiel, Małgorzata; Sisprobe; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, ISTerreTakano, Tomoya; Tohoku Univ., Solid Earth Physics LaboratoryLecocq, Thomas; Royal Observatory of Belgium, Seismology - GravimetryVan der Veen, Wim ; Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BVPostif, Sophie; Shell International Exploration and Production B.V.Hollis, Daniel; Sisprobe

Keywords:

Volcano monitoring < VOLCANOLOGY, Interferometry < GEOPHYSICAL METHODS, Seismic noise < SEISMOLOGY, Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction < SEISMOLOGY, Induced seismicity < SEISMOLOGY

Geophysical Journal International

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

1

Noise-based Ballistic Wave Passive Seismic Monitoring – Part 1: Body-waves 1

2

F. Brenguier1, R. Courbis1,4, A. Mordret2, X. Campman3, P. Boué1, M. Chmiel4,1, T. 3

Takano5,1, T. Lecocq6, W. Van der Veen7, S. Postif3, and D. Hollis4 4

1Institut des Sciences de la Terre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes. 5

2Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 6

3Shell. 7

4Sisprobe. 8

5Solid Earth Physics Laboratory, Tohoku Univ. 9

6Royal Observatory of Belgium 10

7Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij. 11

12

Corresponding author: Florent Brenguier ([email protected]) 13

Université Grenoble Alpes 14

ISTerre 15

CS 40700 16

38058 GRENOBLE Cedex 9 17

FRANCE 18

Phone: +33 673 35 68 77 19

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

2

Summary 20

Unveiling the mechanisms of earthquake and volcanic eruption preparation requires improving 21

our ability to monitor the rock mass response to transient stress perturbations at depth. The 22

standard passive monitoring seismic interferometry technique based on coda-waves is robust but 23

recovering accurate and properly localized P and S-velocity temporal anomalies at depth is 24

intrinsically limited by the complexity of scattered, diffracted waves. In order to mitigate this 25

limitation, we propose a complementary, novel, passive seismic monitoring approach based on 26

detecting weak temporal changes of velocities of ballistic waves recovered from seismic noise 27

correlations. This new technique requires dense arrays of seismic sensors in order to circumvent 28

the bias linked to the intrinsic high sensitivity of ballistic waves recovered from noise 29

correlations to changes in the noise source properties. In this work we use a dense network of 30

417 seismometers in the Groningen area of the Netherlands, one of Europe’s largest gas fields. 31

Over the course of 1 month our results show a 1.5 % apparent velocity increase of the P-wave 32

refracted at the basement of the 700 m thick sedimentary cover. We interpret this unexpected 33

high value of velocity increase for the refracted wave as being induced by the swings in 34

groundwater charge and discharge in a carbonate layer with water conductive fracture networks 35

at 700 m depth. We also observe a 0.25 % velocity decrease for the direct P-wave travelling in 36

the near-surface sediments but conclude that it might be partially biased by changes in time in 37

the noise source properties. The perspective of applying this new technique to detect localized 38

continuous variations of seismic velocity perturbations at a few kilometers depth paves the way 39

for improved in situ earthquake, volcano and producing reservoir monitoring. 40

41

Keywords: monitoring, seismic interferometry, earthquakes, volcanoes, producing reservoirs 42

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

3

1 Introduction 43

Large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions result from long-lasting, steady, pressure 44

buildup on faults and magmatic reservoirs. However, the triggering mechanisms of impending 45

events are thought to be initiated by short time scale stress and pore pressure transients 46

associated with tectonic and volcanic interactions (e.g. Bouchon et al. 2011, Brenguier et al. 47

2014, Khoshmanesh & Shirzaei 2018) and possibly environmental perturbations (e.g. Johnson et 48

al. 2017). Anthropogenic activities such as hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water disposal, CO2 49

storage and geothermal production also induce fluid pore-pressure related deformation that can 50

lead to the triggering of induced seismicity (Talwani 2007, Ellsworth 2013, Chang and Segall 51

2016). Monitoring these stress and pore-pressure perturbations continuously in time with high 52

spatial accuracy at depth is thus critical to foresee forthcoming catastrophic tectonic and volcanic 53

events and to improve reservoir management. 54

55

Seismic velocities are sensitive to stress and pore-pressure perturbations. This has been 56

described in-situ for a wide range of processes like for example solid earth tides (Takano et al. 57

2014) and rainfall induced pore-pressure changes (Wang et al. 2017). Niu et al. (2008) used 58

active seismic source monitoring in boreholes at 1 km depth along the San Andreas Fault and 59

were able to observe the first clear preseismic seismic velocity-stress perturbations in the hours 60

preceding the occurrence of nearby earthquakes. Although convincing, these observations have 61

never been reproduced due to the costly and logistically complicated in-situ experiment. 62

63

Over the last decade, passive noise-based seismic monitoring proved success for 64

monitoring volcanoes (Sens‐Schönfelder et al. 2006, Brenguier et al. 2008a, Donaldson 2017), 65

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

4

earthquakes (Brenguier et al. 2008b) and environmental/climate (Lecocq et al. 2017) changes. 66

Even though some attempts were made, no one succeeded in using passive seismic monitoring to 67

observe clear preseismic anomalies similar to those described by Niu et al. (2008). The standard 68

coda-based technique suffers from shortcomings that limit our ability to detect localized seismic 69

velocity perturbations at depth. This technique also referred to as coda-wave interferometry 70

(Poupinet et al. 1984) has the advantage of being very stable thanks to its low sensitivity to noise 71

source property changes (Colombi et al., 2014). It thus allows detecting weak temporal changes 72

of seismic velocities as small as 0.01 % such as those associated with solid Earth tides for 73

example (Mao et al. 2019). However, the counterpart of this high detection capability is that the 74

complexity of coda-wave propagation limits our ability to precisely characterize both the type (P 75

or S) of velocity change and accurate estimates of their spatial distribution at depth. 76

In this work, we propose a complementary monitoring approach that uses ballistic waves 77

reconstructed from noise correlations. This paper focuses on ballistic body-waves and the 78

companion paper Mordret et al. 2019 focuses on using ballistic surface-waves on the same 79

dataset with the same type of approach. Body-waves have a specific sensitivity to seismic 80

velocity changes at depth and are potentially less affected by near-surface environmental changes 81

than surface waves. By using ballistic waves instead of coda-waves, we can more easily model 82

the spatial sensitivity of the temporal change observations to local velocity perturbations at 83

depth. The drawback of using direct, ballistic body-waves instead of coda-waves is their strong 84

sensitivity to noise source temporal variations (Colombi et al. 2014). We use dense seismic 85

networks and azimuthal averaging to circumvent this issue but still need to carefully analyze the 86

stability of noise sources for such type of analysis. 87

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Different studies showed that body-wave extraction from noise correlations is possible at 88

various scales (Roux et al. 2005, Draganov at al. 2009, Poli et al. 2012). Nakata et al. (2015) 89

were able to implement the first passive 3-D P-wave velocity tomography from continuous 90

ground motion recorded on a dense array of more than 2500 seismic sensors installed at Long 91

Beach (California, USA). Recently Brenguier et al. (2016) and Nakata et al. (2016) proved the 92

temporal stability of direct virtual body-waves between dense arrays on Piton de la Fournaise 93

volcano thus opening the way for continuous, passive ballistic wave monitoring. 94

95

In this paper we describe the fundamental aspects of passive ballistic wave monitoring 96

using dense arrays and further illustrate its potential by applying it to a network of 417 seismic 97

stations in the Netherlands. We are able to measure temporal changes of apparent velocities from 98

both direct and refracted P-waves, and thus we are able to separate the response of the near 99

surface sediments and the basement located at 700 m depth. By providing direct observations of 100

the rock mass response to stress changes at depth, this new passive seismic approach paves the 101

way for improved in situ earthquake, volcano and producing reservoir monitoring. 102

103

2 Methods 104

105

The new approach is based on measuring temporal changes of apparent slowness of specific 106

ballistic waves that have been reconstructed from noise correlations using dense arrays of 107

seismic sensors (Boué et al., 2013b, Mordret et al. 2014, Nakata et al., 2015, Nakata et al., 2016). 108

The underlying requirement is that, as for Nakata et al. (2015), the high number of seismic 109

sensors (> 100) and thus of noise correlation receiver pairs allows for the reconstruction of a 110

virtual shot-gather of sufficiently high quality to be able to isolate and measure the apparent 111

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velocity of ballistic waves such as direct P or S-waves, refracted waves or surface waves with 112

clear mode separation (Mordret et al. 2019). 113

114

For this purpose of properly extracting high quality ballistic waves, we gather all possible 115

noise correlations for all receiver pairs from a dense network into a single seismic panel 116

(propagation time versus virtual source-receiver offset) thus considering a 1D velocity model for 117

which the apparent slowness of a reconstructed ballistic wave measured at surface can be written 118

as: 119

120

𝑛 =1

𝑉=

∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥 121

122

where n is the apparent slowness and V the apparent velocity. We can estimate n as the slope of 123

apparent arrival times 𝑡 along distance 𝑥 under the assumption that the apparent velocity 𝑉 is 124

uniform along distance range ∆𝑥. We are now interested in measuring a temporal change in 125

apparent slowness ∆𝐶𝑡𝑛, the index 𝐶𝑡 being for Calendar time (Fig. 1a): 126

127

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 = 𝑛𝐶𝑡2 − 𝑛𝐶𝑡1 = (∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥)

𝐶𝑡2− (

∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥)

𝐶𝑡1 128

129

The temporal change of apparent slowness can be measured directly as the difference of 130

slowness estimates (from a slant-stack or beam-forming analysis for example) at different 131

calendar times (de Cacqueray et al. 2016). Here we use an approach that estimates the temporal 132

Equation 1

Equation 2

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

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change of apparent slowness as the slope of the linear regression of the travel time shifts at 133

different calendar times for each distance offset along distance ∆𝑥 (Fig. 1b): 134

135

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 =∆𝑥(∆𝐶𝑡𝑡)

∆𝑥 136

137

where ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 are the measurements of travel time shifts at different offsets ∆𝑥 for two different 138

calendar times and for a specific windowed ballistic wave. This approach shows the advantage of 139

providing a direct estimate of the uncertainty of the estimated apparent slowness temporal 140

change by assessing how the measured travel time delays ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 fit a linear regression model along 141

distance range ∆𝑥. 142

143

From equation 2, we can derive the relation linking the temporal change of apparent slowness 144

and apparent velocity: 145

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 = −∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉2 146

147

By multiplying the above equation by V, the apparent uniform velocity of the studied ballistic 148

wave, this equation leads to (Fig 1c): 149

150

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 × 𝑉 =∆𝑥(∆𝐶𝑡𝑡)

∆𝑥𝑡= −

∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉 151

This later equation shows that, for small velocity perturbations (<10%) we can estimate the 152

relative temporal change of apparent velocity, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉, of a given ballistic wave by estimating the 153

value of the slope of the linear regression of ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 measurements along travel time 𝑡. This 154

Equation 3

Equation 4

Equation 5

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

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approach is sketched on Fig. 1. It applies to any kind of ballistic arrivals that can be clearly 155

identified and isolated on a virtual source gather section. The case of direct surface waves 156

requires mode separation and is challenging because of dispersion that leads to different 157

velocities for different periods at which ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 values are measured (Mordret et al. 2019). As 158

suggested in Nakata et al. (2016), this approach can also be applied to noise-correlations between 159

two distant arrays in order to monitor diving body-waves probing magmatic reservoirs, seismic 160

faults or producing reservoirs at a few hundreds to a few kilometers depth. It is interesting to 161

note that in this situation of two distant arrays referred to as A and B, the estimates of temporal 162

changes of apparent velocities can be achieved using noise-correlations between arrays A and B 163

and B and A separately, thus providing two independent estimates of temporal velocity changes. 164

This method can also be applied using noise correlations between an individual seismic station 165

and a distant array. In this work we apply this approach to the monitoring of a direct and a 166

refracted wave using noise-correlations within a single array of about 8 km wide. 167

168

169

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Noise-based ballistic wave seismic monitoring

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170

Figure 1. Procedure for ballistic-wave apparent seismic velocity monitoring. a) propagation of a 171

direct ballistic wave. The dashed lines show the reference wave and the plain lines show the 172

wave affected by a velocity perturbation of -7 %. b) travel time shifts measurements and linear 173

regression along distance. c) conversion from distance to travel time by dividing distance by V, 174

the apparent velocity of the propagating wave. 175

3 Data 176

The Groningen gas field located in the northeast of the Netherlands is one of Europe’s 177

largest natural gas field. The reservoir located at 3 km depth is thought to be 40 by 50 km wide 178

and 250 m thick. Bourne et al. (2018) show that the gas production in this field led to a 15 MPa 179

average reservoir pore-pressure depletion since 1995 which is associated with seismicity rates 180

that increased as an exponential-like function. 181

182

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We use a network of 417 short period seismic stations deployed in the Groningen area of 183

the Netherlands (Fig. 2) from 11 February (day 42) to 12 March (day 71) 2017 over a time span 184

of 30 days. The network forms a grid array with aperture of the order of 8 km and an average 185

station distance of about 400 m. 186

187

188

189

Figure 2. a) Geometry of the 417 short-period stations used in this study. b) beamforming of the 190

30 days of continuous seismic data in the 1-4 seconds period range. 191

192

We computed an averaged seismic section of vertical to vertical noise cross-correlations. The 193

noise-correlations were stacked in time (over the 30 days of continuous data), in space (along 194

distance bins of 50 meters long) and for the causal and acausal parts following Boué et al. 195

(2013a) and Nakata et al. (2015). Figure 3 illustrates these binned data for two different 196

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frequency ranges (1-3 Hz and 3-12 Hz). The low frequency (1-3 Hz) section mainly shows the 197

propagation of low-velocity Rayleigh waves and also of ballistic P-waves at velocities between 198

1.5 and 3 km/s. The lower panel of Fig. 3 highlights the high frequency (3-12 Hz) P-waves 199

interpreted as (1) the direct, diving P-wave with velocity of ~1700 m/s (see model on the right 200

panel) contoured by a blue box and (2) a refracted wave at the 700 m interface with apparent 201

velocity of ~3300 m/s contoured by a red box. Thanks to the high stability in time of the useful 202

high-frequency ambient seismic noise, we are finally able to reconstruct repetitive in time 203

seismic sections from the correlations of daily records of ambient seismic noise leading us to 204

daily virtual shot seismic gathers. 205

206

207

Figure 3. Noise cross-correlation averaged binned section for frequency ranges 1- 3 Hz (a) and 208

3-12 Hz (b). The blue and red dashed boxes correspond to the selected windows used for the 209

analysis for the direct and refracted waves. The right panel (c) illustrates the average P-wave 210

velocity model of the area illustrating the velocities of the overburden (saturated sediments) 211

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around 1700 m/s and of the bedrock at ~700 m depth around 3000 m/s. It has been defined using 212

sonic logs from deep wells in the area (Kruiver et al. 2017). 213

214

4 Analysis and Results 215

In order to measure temporal changes, we further isolate the direct and refracted waves 216

by applying a tapered window (Fig. 4a,b). For the time shift measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, we use a 217

cross-spectrum approach (Clarke et al. 2011) in the frequency range 3 to 8 Hz. We illustrate our 218

approach on Figure 4 by plotting travel time shifts for the direct and refracted waves between 219

references (stacks of days 42 to 50) and a current seismic sections (days 53 to 62 for the direct 220

and days 48 to 57 for the refracted waves). Even though the travel time shifts measurements 221

show large fluctuations likely associated with imperfect direct and refracted waves 222

reconstruction and noise source changes through time, they show a clear linear trend along 223

distance, especially for the refracted wave, indicating a clear change in apparent velocity 224

between these two time periods. By multiplying the slope of the ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 over distance linear 225

regression by the apparent velocity of the direct (1700 m/s) and refracted (3300 m/s) waves (step 226

b) to c) on Fig. 1), we find velocity changes of -0.25 % and +1.5% for the direct and refracted 227

waves. 228

229

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230

231

Figure 4. Travel time shifts along distance plots. Left a), windowed reference direct waves 232

averaged for the time period (days 42 to 50). b) windowed current direct waves averaged for 233

days 53 to 62. c) travel time shift measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, along distance between these two direct 234

waves. Right a), windowed reference refracted waves averaged for the time period (days 42 to 235

50). b) windowed current refracted waves averaged for days 48 to 57. c) travel time shift 236

measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, along distance between these two refracted waves. 237

238

239

240

In order to gain insights on the temporal evolution of velocity changes, we further average the 241

daily seismic sections using a 10-days long, 1-day moving window. This leads us to 21, full 10-242

days averaged, daily seismic sections (from days 42 to 71). Following the method described 243

above, we measure velocity changes (∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉) between each 10-days averaged seismic section and 244

the reference section corresponding to a stack of days 42 to 50 for both the direct (Fig. 5a) and 245

refracted (Fig. 5b) waves. The apparent velocity change curves shown on Figure 5 indicate a 246

velocity decrease of maximum -0.25 % for the direct wave and a velocity increase of maximum 247

1.5 % for the refracted wave. The error bars correspond to the uncertainty of the linear 248

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regressions estimates of the travel time shifts, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, over travel time t (Fig. 1c) using a least-249

square approach following Brenguier et al. 2008a. 250

251

252

253 254

255

5 Discussions and conclusions 256

257

The most common source of error in passive, noise-based seismic monitoring results 258

from the non-stationarity of noise sources. Furthermore, ballistic waves are much more sensitive 259

to noise source variations than coda waves (Colombi et al. 2014). As a result, the main drawback 260

Figure 5. Apparent seismic

velocity temporal changes for both

the direct (top) and refracted

(bottom) waves.

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of this ballistic wave based monitoring method is the potential error introduced by changes in 261

noise sources and great care has to be taken when interpreting the results. We thus need to 262

properly assess how noise source temporal azimuthal variations can hamper our results. To do so 263

we beamform the ambient seismic noise on a 10-days average basis in the period range 1 to 4 264

seconds (Fig. 2). Due to the minimum inter-station distance of 300 m we are not able to 265

beamform the noise in the frequency range of interest (3-8 Hz) and we thus make the assumption 266

that the 1-4 s beams are representative for the higher frequency noise characteristics. We found 267

that the noise source distribution is strongly anisotropic with a main spot coming from the North 268

Sea, north of our array (Fig. 2). Interestingly, the high frequency (3-8 Hz) noise correlations are 269

quite asymmetric proving that most of the high-frequency body-waves also come from the North 270

of our array pointing to shore break as a possible source of high-frequency noise. Our 271

assumption of comparing the high-frequency (3-8 Hz, likely shore break) to the low-frequency 272

(1-4 s, likely ocean microseismic) noise sources might not be fully relevant but still informative. 273

We observe that during the time span of our analysis, the noise source distribution in the 1-4 s 274

period range is mostly stable with small azimuthal variations of the centroid of the main spot by 275

less than 10°. Following the theoretical predictions of travel time errors of ballistic arrival 276

reconstructed from correlations of non-isotropically distributed noise sources from Weaver et al. 277

(2009) and the further applications of Froment et al. (2010) and Colombi et al. (2014), we assess 278

that, in case of a two sensors noise correlation, the error on the travel time shift measurements 279

(Fig. 5) would lead to a velocity change uncertainty of less than 0.5 %. In our case we 280

emphasize that our travel time shift measurements are obtained from azimuthally averaged noise 281

correlations from the dense 417 stations array. We are thus confident that the observed velocity 282

changes of +1.5 % for the refracted wave is mostly related to physical velocity changes. 283

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However, the velocity decrease of 0.25 % for the direct wave might thus be partly biased by 284

changes in the noise source properties. 285

In order to interpret the apparent velocity change of -0.25 % of the direct P-wave, we can 286

consider a simple 1D model of wave propagation in the sedimentary overburden and the ray 287

theory that predicts that the observed apparent velocity change on the direct P-wave corresponds 288

to a real P-wave velocity perturbation averaged over the first 200 m depth (maximum distance 289

between virtual source and stations of 2200 m). The only noticeable event during that time 290

period is an episode of rainfall that occurred on day 53 in the region (20 mm of cumulated water 291

height). The decrease of velocity for the direct wave could thus be related to a poro-elastic 292

process as described by Rivet et al. (2015) and Wang et al. (2017). We will address the study of 293

these shallow surface temporal velocity variations measurements in more details including the 294

analysis of surface waves in a companion paper. 295

Following again the ray theory, the increase of apparent velocity of 1.5 % for the 296

refracted wave can be directly attributed to a change of P-wave velocity of the carbonate bedrock 297

at 700 m depth. Considering this hypothesis of a bedrock velocity increase, one simple 298

interpretation could be the effect of loading from rainfall on the bedrock that would increase the 299

confining pressure and close cracks in the bedrock. However, it is unlikely that 2 cm of 300

additional water height on day 53, corresponding to an increase of loading of 0.2 kPa, leads to a 301

velocity increase of 1.6 % at 700 m depth. Indeed, following Yamamura et al. (2003), and their 302

observation of velocity-stress sensitivity of 10-7 Pa-1 the expected velocity change for a loading 303

of 0.2 kPa should be about 0.01 %. Moreover, we checked for INSAR and GPS observations. 304

These data don’t show any significant transient anomalies during the time span of our analysis. 305

Finally, we also preclude the potential effects of swings in gas production in the main reservoir 306

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at 3 km depth below our study area due to the large distance to the probed carbonate layer. These 307

induced pressure variations are of the order of less than 0.1 MPa locally and are thus too small to 308

potentially induce a 1.5 % velocity increase 2.3 km above in the carbonate layer. We also rule 309

out the effects of local induced earthquakes due to the low level of seismicity during the studied 310

time period. The most likely interpretation for this velocity increase relates to movements of 311

fluids in water conductive fracture networks within the carbonate layer at about 700 m depth. 312

This is discussed in a companion paper Mordret et al. 2019 that includes additional passive 313

monitoring observations using direct surface waves. 314

In conclusions, even though our results are hampered by high uncertainties and are 315

spanning a too short period to be interpreted properly, this new passive ballistic wave seismic 316

monitoring approach has the potential for revealing seismic wave velocity temporal variations at 317

localized areas at depth thus acting as a stress-strain probe. Even though the main drawback of 318

this technique is that it requires dense seismic networks, we believe that this technique together 319

with the recent step change in seismic instrumentation will lead to groundbreaking advances in 320

our understanding of natural and induced earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and will prove useful 321

for reservoir management. 322

323

Acknowledgments 324

We acknowledge two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments. This project received 325

funding from the Shell Game Changer project HiProbe. We also acknowledge support from the 326

French ANR grant T-ERC 2018, (FaultProbe), the European Research Council under grants no. 327

817803, FAULTSCAN and no. 742335, F-IMAGE and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 328

research and innovation program under grant agreement No 776622 (PACIFIC). AM 329

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acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation grants PLR-1643761. The data 330

were provided by NAM (Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij). We acknowledge M. Campillo, 331

N. Shapiro, G. Olivier, P. Roux, S. Garambois, R. Brossier and C. Voisin for useful discussions. 332

The authors thank Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij and Shell for permission to publish. 333

334

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Noise-based Ballistic Wave Passive Seismic Monitoring – Part 1: Body-waves 1

2

F. Brenguier1, R. Courbis1,4, A. Mordret2, X. Campman3, P. Boué1, M. Chmiel4,1, T. 3

Takano5,1, T. Lecocq6, W. Van der Veen7, S. Postif3, and D. Hollis4 4

1Institut des Sciences de la Terre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes. 5

2Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 6

3Shell. 7

4Sisprobe. 8

5Solid Earth Physics Laboratory, Tohoku Univ. 9

6Royal Observatory of Belgium 10

7Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij. 11

12

Corresponding author: Florent Brenguier ([email protected]) 13

Université Grenoble Alpes 14

ISTerre 15

CS 40700 16

38058 GRENOBLE Cedex 9 17

FRANCE 18

Phone: +33 673 35 68 77 19

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Summary 20

Unveiling the mechanisms of earthquake and volcanic eruption preparation requires improving 21

our ability to monitor the rock mass response to transient stress perturbations at depth. The 22

standard passive monitoring seismic interferometry technique based on coda-waves is robust 23

but recovering accurate and properly localized P and S-velocity temporal anomalies at 24

depth is intrinsically limited by the complexity of scattered, diffracted waves. In order to 25

mitigate this limitation, we propose a complementary, novel, passive seismic monitoring 26

approach based on detecting weak temporal changes of velocities of ballistic waves recovered 27

from seismic noise correlations. This new technique requires dense arrays of seismic sensors in 28

order to circumvent the bias linked to the intrinsic high sensitivity of ballistic waves recovered 29

from noise correlations to changes in the noise source properties. In this work we use a dense 30

network of 417 seismometers in the Groningen area of the Netherlands, one of Europe’s largest 31

gas fields. Over the course of 1 month our results show a 1.5 % apparent velocity increase of the 32

P-wave refracted at the basement of the 700 m thick sedimentary cover. We interpret this 33

unexpected high value of velocity increase for the refracted wave as being induced by the swings 34

in groundwater charge and discharge in a carbonate layer with water conductive fracture 35

networks at 700 m depth. We also observe a 0.25 % velocity decrease for the direct P-wave 36

travelling in the near-surface sediments but conclude that it might be partially biased by changes 37

in time in the noise source properties. The perspective of applying this new technique to detect 38

localized continuous variations of seismic velocity perturbations at a few kilometers depth paves 39

the way for improved in situ earthquake, volcano and producing reservoir monitoring. 40

41

Keywords: monitoring, seismic interferometry, earthquakes, volcanoes, producing reservoirs 42

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1 Introduction 43

Large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions result from long-lasting, steady, pressure 44

buildup on faults and magmatic reservoirs. However, the triggering mechanisms of impending 45

events are thought to be initiated by short time scale stress and pore pressure transients 46

associated with tectonic and volcanic interactions (e.g. Bouchon et al. 2011, Brenguier et al. 47

2014, Khoshmanesh & Shirzaei 2018) and possibly environmental perturbations (e.g. Johnson et 48

al. 2017). Anthropogenic activities such as hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water disposal, CO2 49

storage and geothermal production also induce fluid pore-pressure related deformation that can 50

lead to the triggering of induced seismicity (Talwani 2007, Ellsworth 2013, Chang and Segall 51

2016). Monitoring these stress and pore-pressure perturbations continuously in time with high 52

spatial accuracy at depth is thus critical to foresee forthcoming catastrophic tectonic and volcanic 53

events and to improve reservoir management. 54

55

Seismic velocities are sensitive to stress and pore-pressure perturbations. This has been 56

described in-situ for a wide range of processes like for example solid earth tides (Takano et al. 57

2014) and rainfall induced pore-pressure changes (Wang et al. 2017). Niu et al. (2008) used 58

active seismic source monitoring in boreholes at 1 km depth along the San Andreas Fault and 59

were able to observe the first clear preseismic seismic velocity-stress perturbations in the hours 60

preceding the occurrence of nearby earthquakes. Although convincing, these observations have 61

never been reproduced due to the costly and logistically complicated in-situ experiment. 62

63

Over the last decade, passive noise-based seismic monitoring proved success for 64

monitoring volcanoes (Sens‐Schönfelder et al. 2006, Brenguier et al. 2008a, Donaldson 2017), 65

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earthquakes (Brenguier et al. 2008b) and environmental/climate (Lecocq et al. 2017) changes. 66

Even though some attempts were made, no one succeeded in using passive seismic monitoring to 67

observe clear preseismic anomalies similar to those described by Niu et al. (2008). The standard 68

coda-based technique suffers from shortcomings that limit our ability to detect localized seismic 69

velocity perturbations at depth. This technique also referred to as coda-wave interferometry 70

(Poupinet et al. 1984) has the advantage of being very stable thanks to its low sensitivity to noise 71

source property changes (Colombi et al., 2014). It thus allows detecting weak temporal changes 72

of seismic velocities as small as 0.01 % such as those associated with solid Earth tides for 73

example (Mao et al. 2019). However, the counterpart of this high detection capability is that 74

the complexity of coda-wave propagation limits our ability to precisely characterize both 75

the type (P or S) of velocity change and accurate estimates of their spatial distribution at 76

depth. 77

In this work, we propose a complementary monitoring approach that uses ballistic waves 78

reconstructed from noise correlations. This paper focuses on ballistic body-waves and the 79

companion paper Mordret et al. 2019 focuses on using ballistic surface-waves on the same 80

dataset with the same type of approach. Body-waves have a specific sensitivity to seismic 81

velocity changes at depth and are potentially less affected by near-surface environmental changes 82

than surface waves. By using ballistic waves instead of coda-waves, we can more easily model 83

the spatial sensitivity of the temporal change observations to local velocity perturbations at 84

depth. The drawback of using direct, ballistic body-waves instead of coda-waves is their strong 85

sensitivity to noise source temporal variations (Colombi et al. 2014). We use dense seismic 86

networks and azimuthal averaging to circumvent this issue but still need to carefully analyze the 87

stability of noise sources for such type of analysis. 88

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Different studies showed that body-wave extraction from noise correlations is possible at 89

various scales (Roux et al. 2005, Draganov at al. 2009, Poli et al. 2012). Nakata et al. (2015) 90

were able to implement the first passive 3-D P-wave velocity tomography from continuous 91

ground motion recorded on a dense array of more than 2500 seismic sensors installed at Long 92

Beach (California, USA). Recently Brenguier et al. (2016) and Nakata et al. (2016) proved the 93

temporal stability of direct virtual body-waves between dense arrays on Piton de la Fournaise 94

volcano thus opening the way for continuous, passive ballistic wave monitoring. 95

96

In this paper we describe the fundamental aspects of passive ballistic wave monitoring 97

using dense arrays and further illustrate its potential by applying it to a network of 417 seismic 98

stations in the Netherlands. We are able to measure temporal changes of apparent velocities from 99

both direct and refracted P-waves, and thus we are able to separate the response of the near 100

surface sediments and the basement located at 700 m depth. By providing direct observations of 101

the rock mass response to stress changes at depth, this new passive seismic approach paves the 102

way for improved in situ earthquake, volcano and producing reservoir monitoring. 103

104

2 Methods 105

106

The new approach is based on measuring temporal changes of apparent slowness of specific 107

ballistic waves that have been reconstructed from noise correlations using dense arrays of 108

seismic sensors (Boué et al., 2013b, Mordret et al. 2014, Nakata et al., 2015, Nakata et al., 2016). 109

The underlying requirement is that, as for Nakata et al. (2015), the high number of seismic 110

sensors (> 100) and thus of noise correlation receiver pairs allows for the reconstruction of a 111

virtual shot-gather of sufficiently high quality to be able to isolate and measure the apparent 112

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velocity of ballistic waves such as direct P or S-waves, refracted waves or surface waves with 113

clear mode separation (Mordret et al. 2019). 114

115

For this purpose of properly extracting high quality ballistic waves, we gather all possible 116

noise correlations for all receiver pairs from a dense network into a single seismic panel 117

(propagation time versus virtual source-receiver offset) thus considering a 1D velocity model for 118

which the apparent slowness of a reconstructed ballistic wave measured at surface can be written 119

as: 120

121

𝑛 =1

𝑉=

∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥 122

123

where n is the apparent slowness and V the apparent velocity. We can estimate n as the slope of 124

apparent arrival times 𝑡 along distance 𝑥 under the assumption that the apparent velocity 𝑉 is 125

uniform along distance range ∆𝑥. We are now interested in measuring a temporal change in 126

apparent slowness ∆𝐶𝑡𝑛, the index 𝐶𝑡 being for Calendar time (Fig. 1a): 127

128

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 = 𝑛𝐶𝑡2 − 𝑛𝐶𝑡1 = (∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥)

𝐶𝑡2− (

∆𝑥𝑡

∆𝑥)

𝐶𝑡1 129

130

The temporal change of apparent slowness can be measured directly as the difference of 131

slowness estimates (from a slant-stack or beam-forming analysis for example) at different 132

calendar times (de Cacqueray et al. 2016). Here we use an approach that estimates the temporal 133

Equation 1

Equation 2

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change of apparent slowness as the slope of the linear regression of the travel time shifts at 134

different calendar times for each distance offset along distance ∆𝑥 (Fig. 1b): 135

136

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 =∆𝑥(∆𝐶𝑡𝑡)

∆𝑥 137

138

where ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 are the measurements of travel time shifts at different offsets ∆𝑥 for two different 139

calendar times and for a specific windowed ballistic wave. This approach shows the advantage of 140

providing a direct estimate of the uncertainty of the estimated apparent slowness temporal 141

change by assessing how the measured travel time delays ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 fit a linear regression model along 142

distance range ∆𝑥. 143

144

From equation 2, we can derive the relation linking the temporal change of apparent slowness 145

and apparent velocity: 146

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 = −∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉2 147

148

By multiplying the above equation by V, the apparent uniform velocity of the studied ballistic 149

wave, this equation leads to (Fig 1c): 150

151

∆𝐶𝑡𝑛 × 𝑉 =∆𝑥(∆𝐶𝑡𝑡)

∆𝑥𝑡= −

∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉 152

This later equation shows that, for small velocity perturbations (<10%) we can estimate the 153

relative temporal change of apparent velocity, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉, of a given ballistic wave by estimating the 154

value of the slope of the linear regression of ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 measurements along travel time 𝑡. This 155

Equation 3

Equation 4

Equation 5

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approach is sketched on Fig. 1. It applies to any kind of ballistic arrivals that can be clearly 156

identified and isolated on a virtual source gather section. The case of direct surface waves 157

requires mode separation and is challenging because of dispersion that leads to different 158

velocities for different periods at which ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 values are measured (Mordret et al. 2019). As 159

suggested in Nakata et al. (2016), this approach can also be applied to noise-correlations between 160

two distant arrays in order to monitor diving body-waves probing magmatic reservoirs, seismic 161

faults or producing reservoirs at a few hundreds to a few kilometers depth. It is interesting to 162

note that in this situation of two distant arrays referred to as A and B, the estimates of temporal 163

changes of apparent velocities can be achieved using noise-correlations between arrays A and B 164

and B and A separately, thus providing two independent estimates of temporal velocity changes. 165

This method can also be applied using noise correlations between an individual seismic station 166

and a distant array. In this work we apply this approach to the monitoring of a direct and a 167

refracted wave using noise-correlations within a single array of about 8 km wide. 168

169

170

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171

Figure 1. Procedure for ballistic-wave apparent seismic velocity monitoring. a) propagation of a 172

direct ballistic wave. The dashed lines show the reference wave and the plain lines show the 173

wave affected by a velocity perturbation of -7 %. b) travel time shifts measurements and linear 174

regression along distance. c) conversion from distance to travel time by dividing distance by V, 175

the apparent velocity of the propagating wave. 176

3 Data 177

The Groningen gas field located in the northeast of the Netherlands is one of Europe’s 178

largest natural gas field. The reservoir located at 3 km depth is thought to be 40 by 50 km wide 179

and 250 m thick. Bourne et al. (2018) show that the gas production in this field led to a 15 MPa 180

average reservoir pore-pressure depletion since 1995 which is associated with seismicity rates 181

that increased as an exponential-like function. 182

183

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We use a network of 417 short period seismic stations deployed in the Groningen area of 184

the Netherlands (Fig. 2) from 11 February (day 42) to 12 March (day 71) 2017 over a time span 185

of 30 days. The network forms a grid array with aperture of the order of 8 km and an average 186

station distance of about 400 m. 187

188

189

190

Figure 2. a) Geometry of the 417 short-period stations used in this study. b) beamforming of the 191

30 days of continuous seismic data in the 1-4 seconds period range. 192

193

We computed an averaged seismic section of vertical to vertical noise cross-correlations. The 194

noise-correlations were stacked in time (over the 30 days of continuous data), in space (along 195

distance bins of 50 meters long) and for the causal and acausal parts following Boué et al. 196

(2013a) and Nakata et al. (2015). Figure 3 illustrates these binned data for two different 197

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frequency ranges (1-3 Hz and 3-12 Hz). The low frequency (1-3 Hz) section mainly shows the 198

propagation of low-velocity Rayleigh waves and also of ballistic P-waves at velocities between 199

1.5 and 3 km/s. The lower panel of Fig. 3 highlights the high frequency (3-12 Hz) P-waves 200

interpreted as (1) the direct, diving P-wave with velocity of ~1700 m/s (see model on the right 201

panel) contoured by a blue box and (2) a refracted wave at the 700 m interface with apparent 202

velocity of ~3300 m/s contoured by a red box. Thanks to the high stability in time of the useful 203

high-frequency ambient seismic noise, we are finally able to reconstruct repetitive in time 204

seismic sections from the correlations of daily records of ambient seismic noise leading us to 205

daily virtual shot seismic gathers. 206

207

208

Figure 3. Noise cross-correlation averaged binned section for frequency ranges 1- 3 Hz (a) and 209

3-12 Hz (b). The blue and red dashed boxes correspond to the selected windows used for the 210

analysis for the direct and refracted waves. The right panel (c) illustrates the average P-wave 211

velocity model of the area illustrating the velocities of the overburden (saturated sediments) 212

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around 1700 m/s and of the bedrock at ~700 m depth around 3000 m/s. It has been defined 213

using sonic logs from deep wells in the area (Kruiver et al. 2017). 214

215

4 Analysis and Results 216

In order to measure temporal changes, we further isolate the direct and refracted waves 217

by applying a tapered window (Fig. 4a,b). For the time shift measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, we use a 218

cross-spectrum approach (Clarke et al. 2011) in the frequency range 3 to 8 Hz. We illustrate our 219

approach on Figure 4 by plotting travel time shifts for the direct and refracted waves between 220

references (stacks of days 42 to 50) and a current seismic sections (days 53 to 62 for the direct 221

and days 48 to 57 for the refracted waves). Even though the travel time shifts measurements 222

show large fluctuations likely associated with imperfect direct and refracted waves 223

reconstruction and noise source changes through time, they show a clear linear trend along 224

distance, especially for the refracted wave, indicating a clear change in apparent velocity 225

between these two time periods. By multiplying the slope of the ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡 over distance linear 226

regression by the apparent velocity of the direct (1700 m/s) and refracted (3300 m/s) waves (step 227

b) to c) on Fig. 1), we find velocity changes of -0.25 % and +1.5% for the direct and refracted 228

waves. 229

230

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231

Figure 4. Travel time shifts along distance plots. Left a), windowed reference direct waves 232

averaged for the time period (days 42 to 50). b) windowed current direct waves averaged for 233

days 53 to 62. c) travel time shift measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, along distance between these two direct 234

waves. Right a), windowed reference refracted waves averaged for the time period (days 42 to 235

50). b) windowed current refracted waves averaged for days 48 to 57. c) travel time shift 236

measurements, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, along distance between these two refracted waves. 237

238

239

240

In order to gain insights on the temporal evolution of velocity changes, we further average the 241

daily seismic sections using a 10-days long, 1-day moving window. This leads us to 21, full 10-242

days averaged, daily seismic sections (from days 42 to 71). Following the method described 243

above, we measure velocity changes (∆𝐶𝑡𝑉

𝑉) between each 10-days averaged seismic section and 244

the reference section corresponding to a stack of days 42 to 50 for both the direct (Fig. 5a) and 245

refracted (Fig. 5b) waves. The apparent velocity change curves shown on Figure 5 indicate a 246

velocity decrease of maximum -0.25 % for the direct wave and a velocity increase of maximum 247

1.5 % for the refracted wave. The error bars correspond to the uncertainty of the linear 248

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regressions estimates of the travel time shifts, ∆𝐶𝑡𝑡, over travel time t (Fig. 1c) using a least-249

square approach following Brenguier et al. 2008a. 250

251

252

253 254

255

5 Discussions and conclusions 256

257

The most common source of error in passive, noise-based seismic monitoring results 258

from the non-stationarity of noise sources. Furthermore, ballistic waves are much more sensitive 259

to noise source variations than coda waves (Colombi et al. 2014). As a result, the main drawback 260

Figure 5. Apparent seismic

velocity temporal changes for both

the direct (top) and refracted

(bottom) waves.

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of this ballistic wave based monitoring method is the potential error introduced by changes in 261

noise sources and great care has to be taken when interpreting the results. We thus need to 262

properly assess how noise source temporal azimuthal variations can hamper our results. To do so 263

we beamform the ambient seismic noise on a 10-days average basis in the period range 1 to 4 264

seconds (Fig. 2). Due to the minimum inter-station distance of 300 m we are not able to 265

beamform the noise in the frequency range of interest (3-8 Hz) and we thus make the assumption 266

that the 1-4 s beams are representative for the higher frequency noise characteristics. We found 267

that the noise source distribution is strongly anisotropic with a main spot coming from the North 268

Sea, north of our array (Fig. 2). Interestingly, the high frequency (3-8 Hz) noise correlations 269

are quite asymmetric proving that most of the high-frequency body-waves also come from 270

the North of our array pointing to shore break as a possible source of high-frequency noise. 271

Our assumption of comparing the high-frequency (3-8 Hz, likely shore break) to the low-272

frequency (1-4 s, likely ocean microseismic) noise sources might not be fully relevant but 273

still informative. We observe that during the time span of our analysis, the noise source 274

distribution in the 1-4 s period range is mostly stable with small azimuthal variations of the 275

centroid of the main spot by less than 10°. Following the theoretical predictions of travel time 276

errors of ballistic arrival reconstructed from correlations of non-isotropically distributed noise 277

sources from Weaver et al. (2009) and the further applications of Froment et al. (2010) and 278

Colombi et al. (2014), we assess that, in case of a two sensors noise correlation, the error on the 279

travel time shift measurements (Fig. 5) would lead to a velocity change uncertainty of less than 280

0.5 %. In our case we emphasize that our travel time shift measurements are obtained from 281

azimuthally averaged noise correlations from the dense 417 stations array. We are thus confident 282

that the observed velocity changes of +1.5 % for the refracted wave is mostly related to physical 283

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velocity changes. However, the velocity decrease of 0.25 % for the direct wave might thus be 284

partly biased by changes in the noise source properties. 285

In order to interpret the apparent velocity change of -0.25 % of the direct P-wave, we can 286

consider a simple 1D model of wave propagation in the sedimentary overburden and the ray 287

theory that predicts that the observed apparent velocity change on the direct P-wave corresponds 288

to a real P-wave velocity perturbation averaged over the first 200 m depth (maximum distance 289

between virtual source and stations of 2200 m). The only noticeable event during that time 290

period is an episode of rainfall that occurred on day 53 in the region (20 mm of cumulated water 291

height). The decrease of velocity for the direct wave could thus be related to a poro-elastic 292

process as described by Rivet et al. (2015) and Wang et al. (2017). We will address the study of 293

these shallow surface temporal velocity variations measurements in more details including the 294

analysis of surface waves in a companion paper. 295

Following again the ray theory, the increase of apparent velocity of 1.5 % for the 296

refracted wave can be directly attributed to a change of P-wave velocity of the carbonate bedrock 297

at 700 m depth. Considering this hypothesis of a bedrock velocity increase, one simple 298

interpretation could be the effect of loading from rainfall on the bedrock that would increase the 299

confining pressure and close cracks in the bedrock. However, it is unlikely that 2 cm of 300

additional water height on day 53, corresponding to an increase of loading of 0.2 kPa, leads to a 301

velocity increase of 1.6 % at 700 m depth. Indeed, following Yamamura et al. (2003), and their 302

observation of velocity-stress sensitivity of 10-7 Pa-1 the expected velocity change for a loading 303

of 0.2 kPa should be about 0.01 %. Moreover, we checked for INSAR and GPS observations. 304

These data don’t show any significant transient anomalies during the time span of our analysis. 305

Finally, we also preclude the potential effects of swings in gas production in the main reservoir 306

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at 3 km depth below our study area due to the large distance to the probed carbonate layer. These 307

induced pressure variations are of the order of less than 0.1 MPa locally and are thus too small to 308

potentially induce a 1.5 % velocity increase 2.3 km above in the carbonate layer. We also rule 309

out the effects of local induced earthquakes due to the low level of seismicity during the studied 310

time period. The most likely interpretation for this velocity increase relates to movements of 311

fluids in water conductive fracture networks within the carbonate layer at about 700 m 312

depth. This is discussed in a companion paper Mordret et al. 2019 that includes additional 313

passive monitoring observations using direct surface waves. 314

In conclusions, even though our results are hampered by high uncertainties and are 315

spanning a too short period to be interpreted properly, this new passive ballistic wave seismic 316

monitoring approach has the potential for revealing seismic wave velocity temporal variations at 317

localized areas at depth thus acting as a stress-strain probe. Even though the main drawback of 318

this technique is that it requires dense seismic networks, we believe that this technique together 319

with the recent step change in seismic instrumentation will lead to groundbreaking advances in 320

our understanding of natural and induced earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and will prove useful 321

for reservoir management. 322

323

Acknowledgments 324

We acknowledge two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments. This project received 325

funding from the Shell Game Changer project HiProbe. We also acknowledge support from the 326

French ANR grant T-ERC 2018, (FaultProbe), the European Research Council under grants no. 327

817803, FAULTSCAN and no. 742335, F-IMAGE and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 328

research and innovation program under grant agreement No 776622 (PACIFIC). AM 329

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acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation grants PLR-1643761. The data 330

were provided by NAM (Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij). We acknowledge M. Campillo, 331

N. Shapiro, G. Olivier, P. Roux, S. Garambois, R. Brossier and C. Voisin for useful discussions. 332

The authors thank Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij and Shell for permission to publish. 333

334

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