ocena rentabilnosti i rizičnosti projektnog finansiranja

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stručni prilozi

OCENA RENTABILNOSTI I RIZIČNOSTI PROJEKTNOG FINANSIRANJA

RezimeProjektno finansiranje se po mnogo čemu razlikuje od klasičnog kreditiranja. Osnovna

karakteristika je to da se povrat uloženih sredstava očekuje iz novčanih priliva koje odbacuje projekat a ne od samog dužnika. Od uspešnosti projekta zavisi uspešnost ulaganja. Klasična ocena boniteta dužnika na osnovu njegovih finansĳskih izveštaja ne koristi mnogo u donošenju odluke o finansiranju nekog projekta. Obično se za potrebe izvođenja nekog projekta formira firma za posebne namene koja kao novoosnovano preduzeće najčešće i nema bilanse ili ima “slabe” bilanse. Ključna stvar kod analize investicionih projekata jeste kvalitetna projekcĳa očekivanih novčanih tokova projekta i procena rizičnosti projekta. Osnovne metode za procenu rentabilnosti investicionih projekata su neto sadašnja vrednost (NPV), interna stopa povrata (IRR) i indeks profitabilnosti (BCR). Ovo su eliminacioni kriterĳumi ocene investicionih projekata. Pored ovih koriste se i kriterĳumi održivosti projekta, a pre svega testiranje likvidnosti projekta tokom perioda otplate kredita, ocena praga rentabilnosti projekta, kao i testiranje osetljivosti projekta na različite promene ulaznih parametara (mikro i makro varĳabli). Takođe značajan aspekt analize jeste utvrđivanje svih rizika koji prate projekat i mogu umanjiti očekivane novčane tokove projekta. Nakon identifikovanja rizika, sagledavaju se mogućnosti njihovog umanjenja. Deo rizika koji nĳe moguće ublažiti potrebno je ugraditi u cenu kapitala konkretnog projekta. U projektno finansiranje se ulazi samo ukoliko konkretna investicĳa zadovoljava eliminacione i funkcionalne kriterĳume ocene. Pored ovoga, često se prilikom odlučivanja kod projektnog finansiranja nameću i drugi značajni kriterĳumi ocene isplativosti i značaja projekta, npr. ekološki kriterĳumi, energetska efikasnost, društvena odgovornost, regionalni ili strateški značaj itd.Ključne reči: Special purpose vechicle, Eliminacioni kriterĳumi, Funkcionalni kriterĳumi, NPV - Net present value, IRR - Internal rate of return, BCR - Benefit-cost ratio, Breakeven point, CAPM - Capital asset pricing model, Diskontna stopa

mr Đorđe Stojanovski*

* Banca Intesa Beograd [email protected]

UDK 005.8

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ASSESSMENT OF PROFITABILITY AND PROJECT FINANCE RISK

SummaryProject finance is way different from typical crediting. The main characteristic is that the return of

the invested funds is expected from the cash inflows generated by the project itself, and not from the debtor. Whether the investment will be successful depends on whether the project is successful. The classic assessment of the debtor’s creditworthiness on the basis of its financial reports is not used to a great extent when reaching a decision on financing a certain project. For the needs of some project, a special purpose vehicle is usually formed, which, as a newly-established company, in most cases does not even have a balance sheet, or has the “weak” balance sheets. The key thing when it comes to investment projects analysis is the high-quality forecast of the expected project’s cash flows, along with the project risk assessment. The main methods for assessing the investment projects profitability are net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and benefit-cost ratio (BCR). These are the elimination criteria for the investment projects assessment. Apart from these, the project sustainability criteria are also used, first and foremost the project liquidity testing during the credit payback period, the estimation of the project profitability threshold, as well as testing the project’s sensitivity to the various changes of the input parameters (micro and macro variables). Another significant aspect of the analysis is the identification of all risks accompanying the project that may reduce the expected project’s cash flows. Upon identification of risks, the possibilities of their mitigation are considered. The risks that are not possible to mitigate are to be integrated into the price of capital of the concrete project. Project finance is launched only if the concrete investment meets the elimination and functional assessment criteria. In addition, the decision-making in project finance is o�en influenced by some other important criteria for the project profitability and significance assessment, such as, for instance, environmental protection criteria, energy-wise efficiency, social responsibility, regional and strategic importance, etc.Keywords: Special Purpose Vehicle, Elimination Criteria, Functional Criteria, NPV (Net Present Value), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio), Breakeven Point, CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Discount Rate

Đorđe Stojanovski MA*

* Banca Intesa [email protected]

UDC 005.8

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Projektno finansiranje je finansiranje specifičnog investicionog projekta gde se naplata očekuje iz novčanog toka

koji projekat odbacuje. Primeri su projekti izgradnje zgrada, rudnika, fabrika, puteva, gasovoda, vodovoda, brodova, bolnica, škola itd. Projektno finansiranje se razlikuje od tradicionalnog oblika finansiranja u tome što kreditori posmatraju aktivu i novčane tokove projekta kao izvor povrata uloženih sredstava. Kod projektnog finansiranja povrat uloženih sredstava najčešće ne zavisi od ostale imovine i prihoda dužnika ili sponzora projekta. Rizičnost samog dužnika nĳe toliko važna kao kod redovnog kreditnog posla. Kreditna analiza se sastoji od ocene efikasnosti projekta i identifikacĳe i upravljanja rizicima projekta. Centar analize je projekat a ne dužnik. Dužnik je najčešće firma za posebne namene (eng. special purpose vechicle ili special purpose entity) kojoj je jedina imovina projekat, a jedini izvor sredstava kredit dobĳen za finansiranje projekta. U slučaju projekata velike vrednosti često se u ulozi kreditora pojavljuje više banaka kroz tzv. sindicirano finansiranje.

Kod projektnog finansiranja, investicĳe mogu biti vraćene samo ukoliko se projekat uspešno završi i postane operativan. Ukoliko projekat propadne, kreditori gube najveći deo uloženih sredstava. Imovina koja preostaje u propalom projektu je najčešće suviše specifična, nedostupna i ima veoma malu vrednost izvan datog projekta. Zbog rizika i specifičnosti koje projektno finansiranje podrazumeva, troškovi ovakvog finansiranja su obično viši a vreme odlučivanja za odobravanje finansĳskih sredstava mnogo duže od običnog kreditiranja.

Osnovne karakteristike svakog projekta su sledeće:• u pitanju je investiciono ulaganje odnosno

ulaganje sa rokom dužim od godinu dana,• ulaganje se vrši radi očekivane koristi i• postoji rizik neostvarenja očekivane koristi.

Kreditna analiza projektnog finansiranja

Pošto primena kriterĳuma ocene rentabilnosti projekta i rizika neostvarenja projekata podrazumeva utvrđivanje određenih

pokazatelja (apsolutnih i relativnih), neophodno je nameravani projekat elaborirati tako da se na osnovu mnogobrojnih podataka izvrše sledeće analize :• analiza sposobnosti investitora da realizuje

projekat (raspoloživa sopstvena sredstva, kadrovska osposobljenost, finansĳski položaj),

• analiza tržišta nabavke i prodaje (mogućnosti i uslovi nabavke inputa i mogućnosti i uslovi prodaje autputa

• tehničko-tehnološka analiza (definisanje proizvodnog programa, izvodljivosti i vremenske dužine građevinskih radova, izbor potrebne tehnologĳe, definisanje potrebnih ulaganja i sl.),

• finansĳska analiza (pretvaranje fizički definisanih veličina iz prethodno navedenih analiza, uz primenu odgovarajućih cena, u finansĳske veličine)

• analiza rizika projektnog finansiranja i utvrđivanje zahtevane stope prinosa na kapital.Radi realnosti navedenih analiza potrebno

je odrediti vek projekta (period izgradnje i eksploatacĳe), jer sva ulaganja i koristi imaju svoju dinamiku tokom veka projekta.

Ključni parametri za utvrđivanje dužine veka projekta su:• period u kom će postojati potražnja za

autputom projekta,• tehničko-ekonomske karakteristike objekta

i/ili opreme,• vreme otplate kredita koji se koriste

u zatvaranju konstrukcĳe finansiranja projekta.Za potrebu ocene rentabilnosti projekta

bitno je nekoliko ključnih dokumenata (pregleda) koji se formiraju u postupku gore navedenih analiza i to:• pregled potrebnih ulaganja po vrstama

i dinamici sa planiranim izvorima finansiranja,

• projekcĳa bilansa uspeha za period eksploatacĳe projekta,

• ekonomski tok projekta koji obuhvata period izgradnje i period eksploatacĳe i

• finansĳski tok projekta koji takođe obuhvata period izgradnje i period eksploatacĳe projekta.Pregled potrebnih ulaganja sadrži

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Project finance represents financing of a specific investment project, where the payment is expected from the cash flow

generated by the project itself. The examples are the projects of construction of buildings, mines, factories, roads, gas pipelines, waterworks, ships, hospitals, schools, etc. Project finance differs from the traditional form of finance because the creditors consider the assets and the project’s cash flows to be the source of return of the invested funds. In project finance, the return of the invested funds in most cases does not depend on the remaining assets and revenues of the debtor or the project’s sponsor. The risk of the debtors themselves is not that important as in the regular lending operations. Credit analysis consists of the project efficiency assessment, and the project risks identification and management. The center of the analysis is the project, not the debtor. The debtor is usually a special purpose vehicle (or a special purpose entity), whose only assets is the project, the only source of funds being the credit extended for the project finance. In case of the large-value projects, the creditor is o�en represented by several banks, in a so-called syndicated finance.

In project finance the investments may be returned only if the project is successfully completed and becomes operative. If the project fails, the creditors lose the majority of their invested funds. The assets remaining behind the failed project is usually too specific, inaccessible and has very li�le value outside the set project. Due to the risks involved and the specificities of project finance, the costs of this kind of finance are usually higher, and the period of time needed for making the decision on granting the financial funds much longer than in the case of regular lending operations.

The main characteristics of each project are the following:• It is a long-term investment, i.e. investment

with a tenor longer than one year;• The investment has the purpose of gaining

an expected benefit;• There is a risk of non-fulfillment of the

expected benefit.

Project Finance Credit Analysis

Given that the application of the criteria for project profitability assessment and project failure risk imply identification of certain indicators (absolute and relative), it is necessary to elaborate on the intended project so that, on the basis of abundant data, the following analyses are conducted:• Analysis of the investor’s capability to finish

the project (available own funds, skilled personnel, financial position);

• Analysis of procurement and sales markets (possibilities and conditions for input procurement, and possibilities and conditions for output sales);

• Technical-technological analysis (definition of the production programme, feasibility and construction work duration, choice of the required technology, definition of the necessary investments, etc.);

• Financial analysis (turning the figures physically defined in the previously conducted analyses into financial figures, by applying the appropriate prices);

• Analysis of the project finance risk, and identification of the required rate of return on capital.In order for these analyses to be realistic, it is

necessary to determine the lifetime of the project (period of construction and exploitation), since all investments and benefits follow their own dynamics during the project’s lifetime.

The key parameters for determining the project’s lifetime are the following:• Period in which there is a demand for the

project’s output;• Technical-economical characteristics of the

entity and/or equipment;• Payback period for the credits used in the

project finance construction.For the purpose of project profitability

assessment, there are several crucial documents (examinations) formed in the process of the above-mentioned analyses, such as the following:• Examination of the necessary investments

by type and dynamics related to the planned sources of finance;

• Profit and loss statement forecast for the period of project exploitation;

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neophodna ulaganja u osnovna sredstva po tehničkoj strukturi i dinamici kao i ulaganja u obrtna sredstva. Izvori finansiranja mogu biti iskazani kao sastavni deo ovog pregleda ili kao poseban pregled.

Projekcĳa bilansa uspeha obuhvata period eksploatacĳe projekta i ima sledeći strukturu:• u prihodnom delu:

poslovne prihode i finansĳske prihode,

• u rashodnom delu: poslovne rashode i finansĳske rashode.Ekonomski tok

projekta je pregled koji obuhvata podatke o onim poslovnim događajima u okviru veka projekta koji utiču na ekonomski potencĳal projekta. Ekonomski tok uključuje samo neposredne učinke projekta, a vrednost inputa i autputa se iskazuju po stalnim tržišnim cenama.

Ekonomski tok ima sledeću strukturu:• novčane prilive,• novčane odlive i• neto novčani priliv

kao razliku između novčanih priliva i odliva.Novčani prilivi u

ekonomskom toku su oni poslovni događaji koji povećavaju ekonomski potencĳal projekta (poslovni prihodi i ostatak vrednosti koja prezentuje preostalu vrednost ulaganja na kraju ekonomskog veka projekta).

Novčani odlivi u ekonomskom toku su oni poslovni događaji izraženi u novčanim jedinicama koji smanjuju ekonomski potencĳal projekta (materĳalni troškovi bez amortizacĳe, proizvodne usluge, plate radnika, porezi i doprinosi i nematerĳalni troškovi).

Neto novčani priliv u ekonomskom toku je razlika između novčanih priliva i odliva, i u svojoj strukturi sadrži zbir poslovnog dobitka, amortizacĳe i ostatka vrednosti umanjene za vrednost potrebnih ulaganja. Pozitivan ili negativan iznos neto novčanog priliva daje odgovor da li je povećana ili smanjena materĳalna osnova projekta, odnosno investitora. Drugim rečima neto novčani priliv služi kao osnova za primenu kriterĳuma efikasnosti projekta.

Finansĳski tok projekta je pregled koji obuhvata sve novčane prilive i odlive iz ekonomskog toka, s tim što, pored istih, obuhvata i novčane prilive i odlive po osnovu finansiranja projekta (uzeti krediti ili emitovane dužničke hartĳe od vrednosti, kao i kamate i otplate istih shodno planiranim uslovima finasiranja).

Kriterĳumi rentabilnosti projekta

Kako u teorĳi tako i u praksi postoje

Rečnik pojmova:

1. Special purpose vechicle - firma za posebne namene. Firma osnovana sa ciljem realizacĳe nekog konkretnog i specifičnog posla, npr. investiranja ili izvođenja nekog projekta.

2. Eliminacioni kriterĳumi - minimalni kriterĳumi isplativosti nekog projekta pod pretpostavkom realizacĳe očekivanih novčanih tokova (prinosa) i procenjene cene kapitala

3. Funkcionalni kriterĳumi - kriterĳumi održivosti projekta u uslovima promene nekih mikro i makro varĳabli (pretpostavki) koje utiču na ocenu isplativosti projekta

4. NPV - Net present value. Neto sadašnja vrednost očekivanih novčanih tokova (priliva i odliva) projekta.

5. IRR - Internal rate of return. Interna stopa povrata (prinosa) projekta. Govori o maksimalno prihvatljivoj ceni kapitala pod kojom se isplati ulaziti u projekat

6. BCR - Benefit-cost ratio. Indeks profitabilnosti projekta. Govori o odnosu sadašnje vrednosti svih novčanih priliva i sadašnje vrednosti svih novčanih odliva po osnovu projekta (uključujući i inicĳalno investiciono ulaganje).

7. Breakeven point - Prelomna tačka. Tačka ili prag rentabilnosti projekta. Govori o minimalnoj iskorišćenosti kapaciteta odnosno minimalnoj realizacĳi proizvodnje i prodaje pri kojoj je projekat i dalje isplativ.

8. CAPM - Capital asset pricing model. Model za utvrđivanje adekvatne cene kapitala, odnosno zahtevane stope prinosa na kapital za konkretan projekat

9. Diskontna stopa - zahtevana stopa prinosa na kapital ili cena kapitala

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• Economic flow of the project, including both the period of construction and the period of exploitation; and

• Financial flow of the project, also including both the period of construction and the period of exploitation.The review of the

necessary investments contains the required investments in capital assets by technical structure and dynamics, along with the investments in working capital. The sources of finance may be given as an integral part of this review or as a separate review.

Profit and loss statement forecast includes the exploitation period of the project, and has the following structure:• In revenues section:

business revenues and financial revenues;

• In expenditures section: business e x p e n d i t u r e s and financial expenditures.The economic flow

of the project is a review including the data on those business events within the project’s lifetime that influence the economic potential of the project. The economic flow records only the direct performance of the project, the input and output value being expressed only in fixed market prices.

The economic flow has the following

structure:• Cash inflows;• Cash outflows; and• Net cash inflow as a difference between cash

inflows and outflows.Cash inflows within the economic flow are

those business events that increase the economic potential of the project (business revenues, and the rest of the value representing the investment value remaining at the end of the economic lifetime of the project).

Cash outflows within the economic flow are those business events expressed in cash units reducing the economic potential of the project (material costs without amortization, production services, workers’ wages, taxes and contributions, and non-material costs).

Net cash inflow within the economic flow represents the difference between cash inflows and outflows, its structure containing the sum of business revenues, amortization and the remaining value reduced by the required investments value. The positive or negative amount of net cash inflow provides an answer to the question of whether the material base of the project, i.e. investor, has been increased or reduced. In other

Glossary:

1. Special Purpose Vehicle - A company established with a view to completing a concrete and specific operation, for instance, an investment or a project.

2. Elimination Criteria - The minimum criteria for some project’s profitability, under the assumption of achievement of the expected cash flows (revenues) and the estimated price of capital.

3. Functional Criteria - The criteria for the project’s sustainability under the conditions of changing some of the micro and macro variables (assumptions) influencing the project profitability assessment.

4. NPV (Net Present Value) - The net present value of the expected cash flows (inflows and outflows) of the project.

5. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) - The internal rate of return of the project. It indicates the maximum acceptable price of capital which will make the project profitable.

6. BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) - The project profitability index. It indicates the ratio between the present value of all cash inflows and the present value of all cash outflows in respect of the project (including the initial investments).

7. Breakeven Point - The project profitability point or threshold. It indicates the minimum capacity usage, i.e. the minimum volume of production and sales at which the project is still profitable.

8. CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) - A model for determining the adequate price of capital, i.e. the required rate of return on capital for the concrete project.

9. Discount Rate - The required rate of return on capital or price of capital.

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mnogobrojni kriterĳumi za ocenu rentabilnosti investicionih projekata. Zajedničko svim kriterĳumima je da:• u svojoj suštini kvantitativno (brojčano) mere

odnose između o č e k i v a n i h učinaka i ulaganja i

• koriste podatke i pokazatelje koji su formirani tokom p r e t h o d n o n a v e d e n i h analiza, a pre svega finansĳske analize.Prof. dr Blagoje Paunović (Paunović, 1994.)

navodi da postoje kriterĳumi koji ne uzimaju u obzir vreme, odnosno vremensku vrednost novca (statički metodi) i oni koji respektuju vremensku vrednost novca (dinamički metodi).

Vremenska preferencĳa novca je veoma značajna a sa praktičnog aspekta podrazumeva princip da novac danas vredi više nego sutra, bez obzira o kojoj se novčanoj jedinici radi (dinar, evro itd.).

Mnogobrojni su razlozi koji potvrđuju pomenuti princip da novac danas vredi više nego sutra. Od njih najbitnĳi su sledeći:• inflacĳa obezvređuje novac • izgubljena zarada (novac na raspolaganju

danas znači mogućnost dodatne zarade kroz kamatu putem štednje i sl.)

• psihologĳa imaoca novca (novac obezbeđuje određena zadovoljstva, pa je sasvim prirodno da se zadovoljstvo, pa i novac, više vrednuje danas nego sutra).Stepeni povećanja korisnosti danas i

smanjenja korisnosti sutra mogu se izraziti u procentima. Procenat smanjenja korisnosti u finansĳskoj i aktuarskoj matematici se naziva diskontnom stopom. Diskontna stopa po pravilu odražava cenu kapitala iz kojeg se projekat finasira. Pomoću diskontne stope sve vrednosti u budućnosti (u ovom konkretnom slučaju: prilivi i odlivi koje projekat odbacuje) svode se na sadašnju vrednost odnosno na realnu vrednost u vreme donošenja investicione odluke.

Bez pretenzĳe nabrajanja svih kriterĳuma koji se koriste kod ocene investicionih projekata, naredni pregled daje spisak najčešće korišćenih kriterĳuma u praksi:

Statički kriterĳumi su pokazatelji koji ukazuju na neke značajne odnose (racĳa) rentabilnosti i efikasnosti projekta, ukupno gledajući i ne uzimajući u obzir vremensku dimenzĳu. Dinamički kriterĳumi vode računa o vremenskoj dimenzĳi odnosno vremenskom rasporedu priliva, odliva, ulaganja, tj. posmatraju rentabilnost projekta kroz vreme. Eliminacioni kriterĳumi su osnovni kriterĳumi rentabilnosti. Ukoliko oni nisu ispunjeni, projekat se odbacuje kao neprofitabilan. Funkcionalni kriterĳumi pokazuju održivost projekta sa stanovišta likvidnosti, koeficĳenta iskorišćenosti kapaciteta i promene drugih bitnih varĳabli koje utiču na analizu rentabilnosti projekta (cene inputa i autputa i drugo).

Eliminacioni kriterĳumi rentabilnosti projekata

Neto sadašnja vrednost (Net Present Value - NPV)

Neto sadašnja vrednost projekta mogla bi se definisati kao vrednost neto novčanog toka u celom periodu projekta svedena putem diskontovanja na sadašnju vrednost. Dobĳena vrednost neto novčanog priliva po sadašnjoj vrednosti govori koliko je projekat odbacio nove vrednosti posle podmirenja kreditora odnosno investicionih ulaganja.

Postoje dva načina za određivanje neto sadašnje vrednosti projekta:1. Diskontovanje novčanih priliva i novčanih

odliva i utvrđivanje njihove razlike odnosno

STATIČKI KRITERĲUMI DINAMIČKI KRITERĲUMIEliminacioni Funkcionalni

1. Uložena sredstva / Broj radnika 1. Neto sadašnja vrednost 1. Likvidnost

2. Dobit / Ulaganja 2. Interna stopa povrata 2. Prag rentabilnosti3. Prihodi / Rashodi 3. Period otplate 3. Osetljivost4. Dobit / Prihodi 4. Indeks profitabilnosti5. Dobit / Broj radnika

Pregled kriterĳuma ocene investicionih projekata

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words, net cash inflow serves as a base for the application of project efficiency criteria.

Financial flow of the project is a review including all cash inflows and outflows within the economic flow, but, in addition, also including the cash inflows and outflows in respect of project finance (borrowed credits, or issued debt securities, along with the interests and repayments of the above mentioned, according to the planned finance conditions).

Project Profitability Criteria

Both in theory and in practice, there are numerous criteria for the assessment of investment projects’ profitability. All these criteria have the following in common:• In essence, they quantitatively (numerically)

measure relations between the expected performance and investments; and

• They use data and indicators formed during the above m e n t i o n e d analyses, first and foremost f i n a n c i a l analysis.Prof. Blagoje

Paunovic, PhD (Paunovic, 1994) states that there are criteria that do not take time, i.e. time value of money into account (static methods), and those that respect the time value of money (dynamic methods).

Time preference of money is very significant, and from the practical point of view, it implies that money is worth more today than it is tomorrow, regardless of the currency unit we are talking about (dinar, euro, etc.).

The numerous reasons confirm the mentioned principle of money being worth more today than tomorrow. The most important are the following:• Inflation devaluates money;• Lost profit (money available today implies

the possibility of extra profit by means of interest through savings, etc.);

• Psychological framework of a money owner

(money provides certain pleasures, thus it is only natural for pleasure, and money, to be higher valued today than tomorrow).The levels of increasing usefulness today

and reducing usefulness tomorrow may be expressed in percents. The percentage of usefulness reduction is known as a discount rate in financial and actuarial mathematics. Generally, the discount rate reflects the price of capital from which the project is being financed. Using the discount rate, all future values (in this concrete case: inflows and outflows generated by the project) are brought to the present value, i.e. the real value in the time of investment decision-making.

Without a�empting to list all the criteria used in investment projects assessment, the following review provides a list of the criteria most frequently used in practice:

Static criteria are indicators pointing to some significant relations (ratios) of project profitability and efficiency, taking things in general, and disregarding the time dimension. Dynamic criteria take into account time dimension, i.e. time schedule of inflows, outflows, investments, or, in other words, view project profitability through time. Elimination criteria are the basic profitability criteria. If they are not met, the project is dismissed as non-profitable. Functional criteria indicate the project sustainability from the point of view of liquidity, capacity usage ratio, and the changes in other key variables influencing the project profitability analysis (input and output prices, etc.).

STATIC CRITERIA DYNAMIC CRITERIAElimination Functional

1. Invested funds / Number of workers 1. Net Present Value 1. Liquidity

2. Profit / Investment 2. Internal Rate of Return 2. Profitability Threshold

3. Revenues / Expenditures 3. Payback Period 3. Sensitivity4. Profit / Revenues 4. Benefit-Cost Ratio5. Profit /

Number of workers

Review of the Investment Projects’ Assessment Criteria

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sadašnje vednosti neto novčanog toka za svaku godinu projekta, a zatim sabiranje tako dobĳenih vrednosti kako bi se dobila ukupna neto sadašnja vrednost projekta.

NPV = ∑ B(t)/(1+d)t - ∑ C(t)/(1+d)t

2. Utvrđivanje razlike između novčanih priliva i novčanih odliva odnosno neto novčanog toka za svaku godinu, a zatim njegovo diskontovanje kako bi se dobila neto sadašnja vrednost projekta.

NPV = ∑ [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+d)t

gde je:NPV - neto sadašnja vrednostB(t) - Novčani priliv u godini t (korist)C(t) - Novčani odliv u godini t (trošak)t - godina iz veka projektad - diskontna stopaJedan projekat je prihvatljiv pri datoj

diskontnoj stopi d ako diskontovani novčani prilivi prelaze sumu diskontovanih novčanih odliva, tako da je neto sadašnja vrednost veća od nule. Kriterĳum odlučivanja primenom NPV metoda je sledeći:

Pri diskontnoj stopi d:Ako je NPV > 0, projekat se prihvata.Ako je NPV < 0, projekat se odbacuje.Neto sadašnja vrednost projekta se može

prikazati i grafički preko krive neto sadašnje vrednosti koja pokazuje odnos između neto sadašnje vrednosti i diskontne stope. Horizontalna osa prikazuje primenjenu diskontnu stopu a vertikalna osa iznos neto sadašnje vrednosti.

Kao i drugi metodi ocene investicionih projekata koji se zasnivaju na diskontovanju projektovanog novčanog toka i neto sadašnja vrednost zavisi ne samo od tačnosti projekcĳe budućeg novčanog toka već i od primenjene diskontne stope.

Interna stopa povrata (Internal Rate of Return - IRR)

Interna stopa povrata je ona diskontna stopa koja sadašnju vrednost neto novčanog toka projekta svodi na nulu. Po svojoj sadržini interna stopa povrata pored rentabilnosti projekta pokazuje i najveću kamatnu stopu na kredite koju projekat može prihvatiti a da ne ostvaruje gubitak.

Interna stopa povrata je diskontna stopa pri kojoj je:

NPV = ∑ [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+r)t = 0U ovom izrazu, r je diskontna stopa koja

svodi neto sadašnju vrednost na nulu. Interna stopa povrata projekta se izračunava metodom pokušaja i greške. Pretpostavi se jedna diskontna stopa i na osnovu nje se izračuna neto sadašnja vrednost projekta. Ako se dobĳe pozitivna vrednost, postupak se nastavlja tako što se diskontna stopa postepeno povećava i opet izračunava neto sadašnja vrednost sve do momenta dok se ne dobĳe njena negativna veličina. Kada se nađu dve diskontne stope čĳim primenama se dobĳa jednom pozitivna a drugi put negativna neto sadašnju vrednost, to znači da je tražena interna stopa povrata ograničena sa donje i gornje strane sa ove dve stope. Njena vrednost se, na željenu tačnost, izračunava procesom interpolacĳe.

Proces interpolacĳe se može prikazati sledećom matematičkom formulom:

IRR = dp + (dn-dp) * (NPVp / (NPVp - NPVn))gde je:

IRR - interna stopa povratadp - diskontna stopa po kojoj je NPV > 0dn - diskontna stopa po kojoj je NPV < 0NPVn - iznos negativne NPV uz diskontnu

stopu dn

NPVp - iznos pozitivne NPV uz diskontnu stopu dp

Prema kriterĳumu IRR smatra se da je projekat prihvatljiv ukoliko je interna stopa povrata jednaka ili veća od kamatne stope na dugoročne kredite. Ukoliko je interna

stopa manja od kamatne stope na kredite koje projekat koristi, prinos na sopstveni kapital koji vlasnik ulaže u projekat manji je od kamatne stope na kredite, što bi bilo neprihvatljivo.

Kriterĳum za odlučivanje upotrebom interne stope povrata je sledeći:

Pri diskontnoj stopi d,

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Project Profitability Elimination Criteria

Net Present Value - NPVNet present value of the project could

be defined as the value of the net cash flow during the whole period of the project, calculated by discounting to the present value. The calculated net cash flow value per present value indicates the extent to which the project has generated the new values a�er honouring the creditors, i.e. a�er the investments.

There are two ways to determine the net present values of the project:1. Discounting cash inflows and cash outflows,

and determining the difference between them, i.e. the present value of the net cash flow for each year of the project, and then summing up the thus calculated values in order to get the total net present value of the project.

NPV = ∑ B(t)/(1+d)t - ∑ C(t)/(1+d)t

2. Determining the difference between the cash inflows and cash outflows, i.e. the net cash flow for each year, and then discounting it in order to get the net present value of the project.

NPV = ∑ [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+d)t

With:NPV - Net Present ValueB(t) - Cash Inflow in the Year t (benefit)C(t) - Cash Outflow in the Year t (cost)t - A Year from the Project’s Lifetimed - Discount RateA project is acceptable at the given discount

rate d if the discounted cash inflows exceed the sum of the discounted cash outflows, so that the net present value is above zero. The deciding criterion in the NPV method is the following:

At the discount rate d:If NPV > 0, the project is accepted.If NPV < 0, the project is rejected.Net present value may also be represented

graphically at the net present value curve, showing the ratio between net present value and discount rate. The horizontal axis shows the applied discount rate and the vertical axis the net present value amount.

Just like the other investment project assessment methods based on the projected cash flow discount, the net present value depends not only on the accuracy of the future cash flow projection, but also on the applied discount rate.

Internal Rate of Return - IRRInternal rate of return is the discount rate

that reduces the present value of the net project cash flow to zero. When it comes to its content, apart from project profitability, internal rate of return also indicates the largest interest rate on credits that the project may accept without yielding a loss.

Internal rate of return is a discount rate at which:

NPV = ∑ [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+r)t = 0In this formula, r is the discount rate

reducing the net present value to zero. Internal rate of return of the project is calculated by the application of trial and error method. A discount rate is assumed, and on its basis the net present value of the project calculated. If the result is a positive value, the procedure is continued by gradually increasing the discount rate and by repeatedly calculating the net present value till the moment when its value becomes negative. When the two discount rates are found whose application yields first the positive and then the negative net present value, this means that the targeted internal rate of return is limited, having these two rates as its cap and floor. Its precise value is calculated by process of interpolation.

The process of interpolation can be represented by the following mathematic formula:

IRR = dp + (dn-dp) * (NPVp / (NPVp - NPVn))With:IRR - Internal Rate of Return

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Ako je IRR > d, projekat se prihvata.Ako je IRR < d, projekat se odbacuje.Interna stopa povrata ima određene

karakteristike zbog kojih je treba pažljivo primenjivati pri donošenju odluka. Prvo, interna stopa povrata može biti negativna. U ovom slučaju, nediskontovani novčani prilivi od projekta su manji od nediskontovanih novčanih odliva. Očigledno je da ovakve projekte treba odbaciti. Drugo, postoje određene situacĳe u kojima nema jedinstvene interne stope povrata za projekat, odnosno postoji više internih stopa povrata. Drugim rečima, kriva neto sadašnje vrednosti može biti neregularna i presecati horizontalnu osu diskontne stope na više mesta.

Indeks profitabilnosti (Benefit-Cost Ratio BCR)

Indeks profitabilnosti ili korist-trošak racio (BCR) investicionog projekta je sadašnja vrednost budućeg novčanog priliva prema sadašnjoj vrednosti budućeg novčanog odliva investicionog projekta. Drugim rečima, diskontovane koristi se stavljaju u odnos sa diskontovanim troškovima.

BCR = ∑ B(t)/(1+d)t / ∑ C(t)/(1+d)t

gde je:d - diskontna stopa,t - godina projektaB(t) i C(t) - ukupne koristi (novčani prilivi) i

ukupni troškovi (novčani odlivi) u godini t.Sve dok je indeks profitabilnosti jednak ili

veći od 1, investicioni projekat je prihvatljiv. Za svaki projekat, metod neto sadašnje vrednosti i indeks profitabilnosti daju isti zaključak u vezi sa prihvatljivošću projekta. Međutim, ako moramo da odlučujemo o

međusobno isključivim projektima, mera neto sadašnje vrednosti je bolja zato što izražava u apsolutnim iznosima očekivani ekonomski doprinos projekta, dok indeks profitabilnosti izražava samo relativnu profitabilnost.

BCR projekta se može prikazati i grafički, putem BCR linĳe.

Za niz vrednosti diskontnih stopa, BCR će biti veće od 1, a samim tim projekat će biti prihvatljiv. Za veće vrednosti diskontnih stopa BCR će biti manji od jedan, i projekat će biti odbačen. Očigledno je da odluka da li će projekat biti prihvaćen zavisi od vrednosti diskontne stope koja će se primeniti pri odlučivanju.

Ekvivalentnost kriterĳuma za ocenjivanje efikasnosti projekataSva tri kriterĳuma za ocenu efikasnosti

projekata koji se baziraju na diskontovanju novčanih tokova projekta daju istu ocenu investicĳe. Kada je BCR veći od jedan pri određenoj diskontnoj stopi, NPV će biti veća od nule, a IRR će biti veći od diskontne stope. Kada je BCR manji od jedan pri određenoj diskontnoj stopi, NPV će biti manja od nule a IRR će biti manja od diskontne stope.

Za datu diskontnu stopu d,Ako je BCR > 1, onda je NPV > 0 i IRR > d,

projekat se prihvata.Ako je BCR < 1, onda je NPV < 0 i IRR < d,

projekat se odbacuje.Iako sve tri metode daju isti rezultat kad

se sudi o prihvatljivosti projekta, svaka ima svoje specifičnosti. BCR ne govori o apsolutnoj vrednosti neto novčanog priliva koji projekat odbacuje. IRR je sličan kriterĳum i govori o kvalitetu projekta u relativnom smislu. NPV očigledno ima prednost jer daje apsolutni

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dp - Discount Rate at which NPV > 0dn - Discount Rate at which NPV < 0NPVn - Amount of the Negative NPV with

the Discount Rate dn

NPVp - Amount of the Positive NPV with the Discount Rate dp

According to the IRR criteria, the project is considered to be acceptable if the internal rate of return is equal to or higher than the interest rate on long-term credits. If the internal rate is lower than the interest rate on credits used by the project, the return on equity invested by the owner into the project is lower than the interest rate on credits, which would be unacceptable.

The criterion for decision-making by using the internal rate of return is as follows:

At the discount rate d,If the IRR > d, the project is acceptable.If the IRR < d, the project is rejected.The internal rate of return bears the certain

characteristics because of which it should be applied carefully in the decision-making process. First of all, the internal rate of return may be negative. In such case, the non-discounted cash inflows from the project are lower than the non-discounted cash outflows. Obviously, such projects are to be rejected. Secondly, there are certain situations in which there is no unified internal rate of return for the project, i.e. there are several internal rates of return. In other words, the net present value curve may be irregular, intersecting with the horizontal axis in several points.

Benefit-Cost Ratio - BCRThe benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of the

investment project is the present value of the future cash inflow against the present value of the future cash outflow of the investment

project. In other words, discounted benefits are divided by discounted costs.

BCR = ∑ B(t)/(1+d)t / ∑ C(t)/(1+d)t

With:d - Discount Ratet - Year of the ProjectB(t) and C(t) - Total benefits (Cash Inflows)

and Total Costs (Cash Outflows) in the Year t.As long as the benefit-cost ratio is equal

to or higher than 1, the investment project is acceptable. For each project, the net present value method and the benefit-cost ratio provide the same conclusion in respect of the project’s acceptability. However, if we have to make a decision on the mutually exclusive projects, the net present value method is be�er, because it expresses the expected contribution of the project in absolute amounts, whereas the benefit-cost ratio expresses only the relative profitability.

The BCR of the project may also be represented graphically, by means of the BCR line.

For a set of discount rates values, the BCR will be higher than 1, thus the project will be acceptable. For the higher discount rates values, the BCR will be lower than 1, and the project will be rejected. Obviously, the decision on whether the project gets accepted depends on the value of the discount rate to be applied in the decision-making process.

Equivalence of the Project Efficiency Assessment CriteriaAll three criteria for the project efficiency

assessment based on discounting the project’s cash flows provide the same investment assessment. When the BCR is higher than 1 at a certain discount rate, the NPV will be

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iznos za koji će firma ili njen vlasnik povećati vrednost ako se projekat prihvati.

Sledeći primer prikazuje primenu sva tri metoda ocene na novčane tokove dva alternativna investiciona projekta.

Primer: Ocena atraktivnosti dva projekta primenom metoda NPV, BCR, IRR (Curry and Weiss, 1993.)

Pretpostavimo da sledeća tabela prikazuje projektovane novčane tokove dva investiciona predloga diskontovana istom stopom od 8%.

Kao što se vidi u tabeli, projekat A je bolji po sva tri kriterĳuma ocenjivanja. Projekat B produkuje negativnu neto sadašnju vrednost, ima korist-trošak racio manji od jedan i internu stopu povrata nižu od diskontne stope, što znači da je neprihvatljiv i da treba prihvatiti projekat A.

Period otplate (Payback Period)Period otplate ulaganja određuje broj godina

potreban da se povrati početno ulaganje u projekat. To je racio početnog fiksnog ulaganja i godišnjih novčanih priliva. Može se prikazati sledećom formulom:Period otplate = Početno ulaganje / Godišnji

novčani prilivAko je period otplate manji od maksimalno

prihvatljivog, projekat se prihvata, i obrnuto.Glavni nedostatak metoda perioda otplate

ulaganja je to što on ne uzima u obzir novčane

prilive posle perioda otplate, pa ne može služiti kao mera profitabilnosti. Drugi nedostatak ovog metoda je to što ne uzima u obzir vreme novčanog priliva u toku perioda otplate, nego uzima u obzir samo period otplate kao celinu. Iz tog razloga se često računa diskontovani period otplate, gde se početno ulaganje deli sa diskontovanim godišnjim novčanim prilivima.

Funkcionalni kriterĳumi rentabilnosti projekta (održivost projekta)

Funkcionalni kriterĳumi spadaju u dinamičke kriterĳume jer na izvestan način uzimaju u obzir vremensku dimenzĳu koristi i troškova projekta. Ovim kriterĳumima se ocenjuje održivost odnosno funkcionalnost projekta sa stanovišta likvidnosti i promena značajnih pretpostavki uspešne realizacĳe projekta.

Likvidnost projekta podrazumeva sposobnost da se u svakom momentu (godini) podmire dinarske i devizne obaveze, i to kako u periodu izgradnje tako i u periodu eksploatacĳe projekta.

Za svrhu utvrđivanja likvidnosti projekta izrađuje se finansĳski tok projekta.

Utvrđivanje likvidnosti projekta ima svrhe

Projekat A Projekat BSadašnja vrednostd = 8%

Godine Sadašnja vrednostd = 8%

Godine

0 1 2-6 7 0 1 2-6 7

Investicioni troškovi 1.000 400

Obrtna sredstva 200 (200) 40 (40)

Materĳal 400 500 500 30 30 30 30Energĳa 80 100 100 20 20 20 20Plate 90 100 100 200 200 200 200Ukupni troškovi 4.607 1.200 570 700 500 1.968 690 250 250 210

Prihodi 5.021 800 1.000 1.000 1.955 315 315 315 315BCR 1,090 0,993NPV 414 (1200) 230 300 500 (13) (375) 65 65 105IRR (%) 16,6 7,0

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above zero, and the IRR will be higher than the discount rate. When the BCR is lower than 1 at a certain discount rate, the NPV will be below zero, and the IRR will be lower than the discount rate.

For the set discount rate d,If the BCR > 1, then the NPV > 0, and the IRR

> d, the project is accepted.If the BCR < 1, then the NPV < 0, and the IRR

< d, the project is rejected.Although all three methods provide the

same result when it comes to judging the project’s acceptability, each of these methods has its own specificities. The BCR does not deal with the absolute value of the net cash inflow generated by the project. The IRR is a similar criterion, dealing with the project’s quality in relative terms. The NPV obviously has the advantage of providing the absolute amount for which the company or its owner will increase the value in case the project is accepted.

The following example illustrates the application of all three assessment methods to the cash flows of two alternative investment projects.

Example: The assessment of a�ractiveness of the two projects by applying the methods of NPV, BCR, IRR (Curry and Weiss, 1993)

Let us assume that the following table shows the projected cash flows of the two investment proposals with the same 8% discount rate.

As can be seen from the table, the project A is be�er according to all three assessment criteria. The project B generates negative net present value, has the benefit-cost ratio below 1 and internal rate of return lower than the discount rate, which means that it is unacceptable and that Project A should be accepted.

Payback PeriodThe investment payback period determines

the number of years necessary for the initial investment in the project to be returned. It represents the ratio between the initial fixed investment and the annual cash inflows. It can be represented by the following formula:Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual

Cash InflowIf the payback period is shorter than

the maximum acceptable one, the project is accepted, and vice versa.

The major shortcoming of the investment payback period method is that it does not take into account the cash inflows a�er the payback period, which is why it cannot be used for profitability assessment. The second drawback of this method is that it does not take into account the time of the cash inflow during the payback period, but considers the payback period only as a whole. Due to this reason, the discounted payback period is frequently calculated, where the initial investment is divided by the discounted annual cash inflows.

Project A Project BPresent value

d = 8%

Years Present value

d = 8%

Years

0 1 2-6 7 0 1 2-6 7

Investment Costs 1.000 400

Working Capital 200 (200) 40 (40)

Materials 400 500 500 30 30 30 30Energy 80 100 100 20 20 20 20Wages 90 100 100 200 200 200 200

Total Costs 4.607 1.200 570 700 500 1.968 690 250 250 210

Revenues 5.021 800 1.000 1.000 1.955 315 315 315 315BCR 1,090 0,993NPV 414 (1200) 230 300 500 (13) (375) 65 65 105IRR (%) 16,6 7,0

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ukoliko projekat ispunjava sve eliminacione kriterĳume. Potrebno je da projekat kumulativno ili u najvećem broju godina obezbeđuje dinarsku i deviznu likvidnost.

Funkcionalna održivost projekta se meri i analizom praga rentabilnosti odnosno utvrđivanjem breakeven point-a, kao i analizom osetljivosti projekta na promene ključnih varĳabli. Prag rentabiliteta govori o minimalnoj iskorišćenosti kapaciteta pri kojoj projekat postaje rentabilan. Kako svaki projekat ima fiksne i varĳabilne troškove tokom izgradnje i tokom perioda eksploatacĳe, projekat postaje isplativ tek kada iskorišćenost kapaciteta (npr. obim proizvodnje ili prodaje) dostigne takav nivo da su prihodima od projekta pokriveni svi fiksni rashodi (uključujući i rashode finansiranja). Prag rentabiliteta se može prikazati formulom i grafički.

BE = F / (P - V),gde je:BE - prag rentabiliteta (minimalno potrebna

popunjenost kapaciteta odnosno količina

autputa)F - fiksni rashodiP - cena jedinice autputaV - varĳabilni rashodi po jedinici autputa

Analiza osetljivosti projekta podrazumeva promenu ključnih varĳabli i ocenu njihovog uticaja na rentabilnost projekta. Ključne varĳable su iskorišćenost kapaciteta odnosno broj jedinica autputa, cenu jedinice autputa, cenu jedinice inputa, nivo fiksnih rashoda i druge. Sledeća tabela prikazuje analizu osetljivosti projekta iz gore predstavljenog primera:

Scenario NPV IRR

1 Rast cene osnovnog inputa za 10% smanjenje za 251 na 163 smanjenje za 5,1 p.p. na 11,5%2 Pad cene autputa za 10% smanjenje za 502 na -88 smanjenje za 10,6 p.p. na 6,0%3 Rast rizika (diskontna stopa = 10%) smanjenje za 114 na 300 nepromenjeno: 16,6%4 Povećanje fiksnih rashoda za 200 smanjenje za 200 na 214 smanjenje za 4,6 p.p. na 12,0%

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Project Profitability Functional Criteria (project sustainability)

Functional criteria belong to the group of dynamic criteria since, in a way, they take into account the time dimension of the project’s costs and benefits. These criteria estimate the sustainability or functionality of the project, from the point of view of liquidity and changes in the significant assumptions of the successful project realization.

The project liquidity implies the capability to honour the dinar and foreign exchange liabilities in each moment (year), both in the period of construction and in the period of project exploitation.

For the purpose of determining the project liquidity the financial flow of the project is prepared.

Determination of project liquidity fulfills its purpose if the project meets all elimination criteria. The project is required to provide dinar and FX liquidity cumulatively or in most of the years.

Functional sustainability of the project is also measured by the profitability threshold analysis, i.e. by determining the breakeven point, along with the analysis of the project’s sensitivity to the changes in key variables. Profitability threshold indicates the minimum capacity usage at which the project becomes profitable. Given that each project has the fixed and variable costs during the construction and exploitation periods, the project becomes

profitable only when the capacity usage (for instance, the volume of production and sales) reaches the level at which the project revenues cover all fixed expenditures (including the finance expenditures). Profitability threshold may be represented by a formula and on a chart.

BE = F / (P - V),With:BE - Profitability Threshold (minimum

required capacity usage, i.e. amount of output)

F - Fixed ExpendituresP - Output Unit PriceV - Variable Expenditures per Output Unit

Project sensitivity analysis implies the change in the key variables and the assessment of their influence on the project’s profitability. The key variables are the capacity usage, i.e. the number of output units, output unit price, input unit price, level of fixed expenditures, etc. The following table shows the project sensitivity analysis from the above cited example:

Scenario NPV IRR

1 Increase in basic input price by 10% Reduction by 251 to 163 Reduction by 5,1 p.p. to 11,5%2 Decrease in output price by 10% Reduction by 502 to -88 Reduction by 10,6 p.p. 6,0%3 Risk increase (discount rate = 10%) Reduction by 114 to 300 Unchanged: 16,6%

4 Increase in fixed expenditures by 200 Reduction by 200 to 214 Reduction by 4,6 p.p. to 12,0%

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Iz tabele se jasno vidi da je projekat nerentabilan u slučaju realizacĳe scenarĳa 2, odnosno pada cene autputa za 10%. Ukoliko se proceni da je verovatnoća ostvarenja ovakvog scenarĳa prevelika, projekat je potrebno odbaciti. U tabeli je prikazan samo uticaj različitih scenarĳa na dva eliminaciona kriterĳuma ocene projekata, NPV i IRR. U praksi je moguća (pa čak i poželjna) upotreba i ostalih kriterĳuma ocene projekata. Takođe predstavljeni scenarĳi su jednofaktorski, odnosno pretpostavljaju promene samo jedne varĳable pri nepromenjenim vrednostima drugih varĳabli. U praksi se najčešće rade višefaktorski scenarĳi, gde se u jednom scenarĳu pretpostavlja promena nekoliko varĳabli istovremeno, i zatim meri uticaj datog scenaria na profitabilnost projekta.

Analiza rizika projektnog finansiranja

Kreditori nastoje da izbegnu opasnosti događaja koji mogu imati negativan uticaj na finansĳske performanse projekta. Ovde se pre svega misli na rizik nezavršetka projekta na vreme, u okviru projektovanog budžeta ili nezavršetka projekta uopšte, rizik neiskorišćenosti kapaciteta projekta u fazi ekonomske eksploatacĳe, rizik nedovoljnih prihoda za otplatu kredita i rizik skraćivanja ekonomskog veka projekta.

Sve ove i druge rizike je potrebno identifikovati, proceniti mogućnost njihovog umanjenja, kvantifikovati ih i ugraditi u cenu izvora finansiranja. Identifikovanje rizika podrazumeva neku vrstu studĳe izvodljivosti projekta. Kreditori često angažuju spoljne saradnike i stručnjake u cilju nezavisne procene izvodljivosti projekta. U okviru studĳe izvodljivosti se radi ocena objektivnosti procene rashoda projekta i neto novčanih priliva. Procenjuje se sposobnost projekta da odbacuje novčane prilive adekvatne za otplatu izvora finansiranja. Radi se scenario analiza uticaja promene makroekonomskih varĳabli kao što su inflacĳa, rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda, kamatne stope, devizni kursevi, cene inputa i autputa.

Identifikovanim rizicima je potrebno upravljati kako bi se umanjila verovatnoća

realizacĳe rizika i ublažile posledice ovakvog događaja. S obzirom da su kreditori od početka pa do kraja projekta neposredni učesnici u projektu i u slučaju propasti dužnika preuzimaju projekat, neophodno je aktivno i kvalitetno praćenje projekta. Ovo se postiže intenzivnim izveštavanjem kreditora od strane dužnika i kontrolom računa preko kojih se projekat finansira. Ovde često dolazi do sukoba interesa dužnika i kreditora. Dužnik teži većoj slobodi odlučivanja i fleksibilnosti raspolaganja sredstvima dok kreditor teži većoj kontroli i drugim mehanizmima upravljanja rizicima projekta.

Svaki projekat je na izvestan način izložen različitim tipovima rizika. Svakako jedan od najznačajnĳih rizika jeste rizik nezavršetka projekta. Projekat može kasniti, imati veće rashode od projektovanih ili u potpunosti propasti iz različitih razloga (npr. tehnički razlozi, problemi sa ljudskim resursima, nepredviđene teškoće u građevinskim radovima itd.). Ovo dovodi do kašnjenja i povećanih troškova, što ugrožava otplatu izvora finansiranja i dovodi do akumuliranja dugova i neplaćenih kamata. Takođe, ovo može ugroziti i prodaju autputa ili nabavku inputa.

Kreditori ublažavaju rizik nezavršetka ili kašnjenja u završetku projekta tako što ugovaraju činidbene garancĳe od drugih banaka ili sponzora projekta, zahtevaju značajno finansĳsko učešće dužnika u finansiranju projekta, zahtevaju ugovaranje fiksnih cena i fiksnog vremena završetka projekta, angažovanje proverenih izvođača radova i angažovanje spoljnih saradnika za praćenje i procenu statusa projekta odnosno progresa u izvođenju radova.

Druga značajna vrsta rizika koja se često javlja kod projekata jeste rizik nedostatka inputa. Na primer nedovoljan broj putnika na nekoj saobraćajnoj deonici, nedovoljna količina rude u proizvodnji sirovina, nedovoljna količina poljoprivrednih proizvoda u proizvodnji hrane itd. Ovakvi rizici se ublažavaju tako što se izrađuju studĳe i istraživanja dovoljnosti inputa, zahteva ugovaranje dugoročnih ugovora o nabavci inputa i ugovaranje garancĳa o minimalnoj količini inputa.

U fazi ekploatacĳe odnosno ekonomskog veka projekta javljaju se takozvani operativni

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The table clearly shows that the project is non-profitable in the case of Scenario 2, i.e. the drop in the output price by 10%. If it is assessed that the probability of such a scenario is high, the project has to be abandoned. The table only shows the influence of different scenarios on the two project assessment elimination criteria, NPV and IRR. In practice, it is possible (even recommendable) to use the rest of the project assessment criteria. Also, the table shows only the one-factor scenarios, i.e. the ones that assume a change in only one variable whereas the values of other variables remain unaltered. The scenarios most o�en found in practice are the multi-factor scenarios, where within one scenario the concurrent changes in several variables are assumed, and then the influence of such scenario on the project profitability measured.

Project Finance Risk Analysis

Creditors tend to avoid the dangerous events that may have an adverse effect on the financial performance of the project. This primarily refers to the risk related to the project not being finished on time, within the projected budget, or to the project not being finished at all, then to the risk of the project’s capacity non-usage in the economic exploitation period, the risk of the insufficient revenues for the credit repayment, and the risk of shortening the economic lifetime of the project.

It is necessary to identify all these and other risks, estimate the possibility of their mitigation, quantify and integrate them into the finance sources price. Identification of risk implies some kind of the project’s feasibility study. The creditors o�en hire external assistants and experts to conduct an independent assessment of the project’s feasibility. The feasibility study estimates whether the project’s expenditures and net cash inflows are assessed objectively. What is also assessed is the project’s capability to generate the cash flows adequate for repayment of the finance sources. A scenario analysis is conducted with a view to analyzing the influences of the changes in macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, growth of the GDP, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, input and output prices.

The identified risks need to be managed in order to reduce the possibility of risks manifestation, and mitigate the consequences of such an event. Given that from the beginning to the end of the project, the creditors are its direct participants, who, in case the debtor goes bankrupt, take over the project, it is necessary to monitor the project in an active and high-quality manner. This can be achieved by intensive reporting to the creditors by the debtor, and by supervision of accounts through which the project is being financed. This is where most frequently the conflict of interests occurs between the debtor and the creditor. The debtor wants a wider freedom of choice and flexibility related to the funds disposal, whereas the creditor wants stricter control and other mechanisms of the project’s risks management.

Each project is, in a way, exposed to the different types of risks. One of the, certainly, most significant risks is the risk of the project not being finished. The project may be delayed, may have higher expenditures than projected, or may completely fail due to the various reasons (e.g. technical reasons, human resources problems, unexpected difficulties related to construction work, etc.). All this leads to delay and increased costs, which, in turn, jeopardizes repayment of the finance sources, and results in accumulation of debts and unpaid interests. This may also jeopardize the sales of output or the procurement of input.

The creditors mitigate the risk of failure or delay of the project by obtaining performance guarantees from other banks or project’s sponsors, by demanding significant participation of debtors in the project finance, by demanding fixed prices and fixed time for the project completion, by hiring reputable construction operators, and external assistants to monitor and assess the status of the project, i.e. the progress achieved in construction work.

The second significant type of risk o�en manifested in projects is the risk related to the lack of input. For instance, the insufficient number of commuters on a certain road, the insufficient amount of ore in the production of raw materials, the insufficient amount of agricultural products in food production,

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rizici. Ovo su rizici koji nepovoljno utiču na novčane prilive od projekta kroz povećanje operativnih rashoda ili umanjenje kapaciteta projekta za generisanje dovoljnog kvantiteta ili kvaliteta autputa. Primeri su nedostatak iskustva i operativnih resursa, operativna neefikasnost, nedostatak inputa i obučene radne snage. Ova vrsta rizika se ublažava tako što se zahteva da projektom upravljaju kredibilne i finansĳski stabilne kompanĳe ili pojedinci.

Takođe bitan projektni rizik jeste utrživost autputa projekta. Rizik utrživosti je rizik da se za autput projekta neće naći kupci po ceni adekvatnoj za obezbeđivanje dovoljnih novčanih priliva za otplatu izvora finansiranja. Najbolja mera za ublažavanje ovog rizika je rad za poznatog kupca odnosno prodaja autputa unapred.

Značajan projektni rizik je i kreditni rizik. Kreditnom riziku su pre svega izloženi sponzori projekta odnosno sami dužnici. Pitanje je da li oni imaju dovoljne resurse za završetak i uspešnu ekploatacĳu projekta u slučaju neočekivanih problema. Kreditori zato ulaze u projektno finansiranje samo ukoliko su uvereni da dužnik ili sponzor projekta imaju potrebne ljudske i tehničke resurse, iskustvo u sličnim projektima i ukoliko su finansĳski snažni.

Tehnički rizik je rizik poteškoća u izgradnji ili funkionisanju projektovanog objekta ili opreme. Kreditori obično preferiraju proverene tehnologĳe u odnosu na nove tehnologĳe. Često se angažuju spoljni saradnici i stručnjaci za ocenu tehnologĳe koja će se primeniti u projektu. Ponekad se zahteva i izdvajanje jednog dela novčanih priliva od projekta na poseban namenski račun koji će služiti za pokrivanje budućih troškova održavanja.

Projektno finansiranje može biti izloženo deviznom i kamatnom riziku. Devalvacĳa valute u kojoj je odobren kredit može povećati troškove finansiranja i izgradnje ukoliko se značajan deo inputa nabavlja iz uvoza. Devalvacĳa valuta u kojima se ostvaruju prihodi može takođe izazvati neočekivane probleme u ostvarivanju adekvatnih novčanih priliva od projekta. Kada se ugovara varĳabilna kamatna stopa, rashodi finansiranja i novčani odlivi po tom osnovu mogu biti značajno veći od očekivanih u slučaju rasta referentnih kamatnih stopa na tržištu. Ovi rizici se ublažavaju tako što se usklađuju valute

ugovora nabavke i ugovora prodaje koliko god je to moguće. Takođe, ugovor o projektnom finansiranju je najbolje ugovarati u valuti u kojoj će se ostvarivati najveći deo prihoda. Moguća je i zaštita od ove vrste rizika pomoću finansĳskih derivata odnosno hedžingom.

Regulatorni rizik je rizik nedobĳanja tehničke ili upotrebne dozvole za izgrađeni objekat odnosno opremu, ili rizik značajne promene u porezima i taksama, premĳama obaveznog osiguranja, akcizama, ili rigidnim regulatornim standardima po pitanju tehničke ispravnosti, kvaliteta itd. Ovakvi rizici se umanjuju pribavljanjem pravnih mišljenja po pitanju usaglašenosti sa regulativom.

Politički rizik je rizik od političke ili finansĳske nestabilnosti kao što su štrajkovi, suspendovanje slobodnog kretanja kapitala, ekproprĳacĳa, nacionalizacĳa.

Rizik više sile je rizik da će viša sila i neočekivani događaj privremeno ili trajno sprečiti realizacĳu projekta. Primer može biti poplava, požar, rat itd.

Kao što je rečeno, donošenje ocene o rentabilnosti projekta u velikoj meri zavisi od pravilnog utvrđivanja diskontne stope (cene kapitala) projekta. Većina metoda ocene investicionih projekata koristi diskontnu stopu kao važan faktor u donošenju ocene o rentabilnosti. Kod NPV metode, BCR metode, metode diskontovanog perioda otplate, diskontna stopa se koristi prilikom svođenja očekivanih novčanih tokova projekta na sadašnju vrednost. Kod IRR metode, diskontna stopa se primenjuje kao referentna vrednost (tzv. hurdle rate), pa se na osnovu poređenja interne stope prinosa i diskontne stope projekta donosi odluka o rentabilnosti projekta. Svi pomenuti i mnogi drugi rizici od kojih zavisi uspešna realizacĳa projekta odnosno očekivani novčani tokovi (prinosi) koje projekat treba da odbaci, moraju biti ugrađeni u potrebnu cenu kapitala odnosno diskontnu stopu. Postoji mnogo načina za utvrđivanje adekvatne diskontne stope nekog projekta, ali njihovo detaljno elaboriranje pravazilazi obim ovog rada. Ukratko, među popularne načine utvrđivanja diskontne stope projekta su CAPM model, model zidanja diskontne stope, model relativnog vrednovanja. CAPM model koristi tržišne informacĳe o nivou bezrizičnih stopa prinosa (kamatna

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etc. Such risks are mitigated by conducting analyses and researching the input sufficiency, demanding the long-term agreements on input procurement, and obtaining guarantees on the minimum input amount.

In the exploitation stage, i.e. the economic lifetime of the project, the so-called operative risks get manifested. These are the risks which have an unfavourable effect on the project’s cash inflows by increasing the operative expenditures and reducing the project’s capacity for generating the sufficient quantity or quality of output. The examples are the lack of experience and operative resources, operative inefficiency, the lack of input and trained work force. Such risks are mitigated by demanding the project to be governed by creditworthy and financially stable companies and individuals.

Another important project risk is the marketability of the project’s output. The marketability risk is the risk of not being able to find the buyers for the project’s output, at the price adequate for providing sufficient cash inflows for the repayment of finance resources. The best measure for this risk’s mitigation is to work for the known buyer, i.e. the selling of output in advance.

One of the significant project risks is also the credit risk. The sponsors of the project, i.e. the debtors themselves are the first to be exposed to credit risk. The question arises whether they have sufficient resources for the completion and successful exploitation of the project in case of the unexpected problems. Thus, the creditor enter the project finance only if they are convinced that the debtor or the project’s sponsor possess the required human and technical resources, the experience in similar projects, and if they are financially strong.

Technical risk is the risk related to the problems in construction or functioning of the projected facility or equipment. The creditors usually prefer the verified technologies to the new technologies. They o�en hire external assistants and experts to appraise the technology to be applied in the project. Sometimes they demand a certain part of the project’s cash inflows to be set aside at the separate special account, which would serve for covering the future maintenance costs.

Project finance may also be exposed to foreign exchange and interest risk. Devaluation of the currency in which the credit is extended may increase the costs of finance and construction if the considerable part of input is imported. Devaluation of currencies in which the revenues are generated may also cause some unexpected problems related to generating the adequate cash inflows from the project. When the floating interest rate is agreed, the finance expenditures and cash outflows in that respect may be considerably higher than expected, in case of the benchmark interest rates increase at the market. Such risks are mitigated by adjusting the procurement contract currency and the sales contract currency as much as possible. Also, it is best for the project finance contract to be drawn in the currency in which most of the revenues will be generated. The protection from this type of risk is possible by means of financial derivatives, i.e. hedging.

Regulatory risk is the risk of being denied the technical or use permit for the built facility or equipment, or the risk related to the considerable changes in taxes and duties, obligatory insurance premiums, excise taxes, or rigid regulatory standards in respect of the technical soundness, quality, etc. Such risks are mitigated by procuring legal opinions on the coordination with the regulations.

Political risk is the risk related to the political or financial instability, such as strikes, suspension of the free circulation of capital, expropriation, nationalization.

Force majeure risk is the risk of a force majeure or an unexpected event temporarily or permanently preventing the implementation of the project. The examples may be a flood, fire, war, etc.

As already mentioned, conducting an assessment of the project’s profitability very much depends on accurate identification of the project’s discount rate (price of capital). Most methods of investment projects’ assessment use discount rate as an important factor in profitability assessment. In NPV method, in BCR method, in discounted payback period method, discount rate is used when reducing the expected cash flows of the project to the present value. In IRR method, discount rate is applied as a benchmark value (the so-

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stopa na državne zapise), prosečnih tržišnih stopa prinosa i nivou osetljivosti (rizičnosti) projekta u odnosu na promene prosečnih tržišnih stopa prinosa na kapital. Model je teško primenjiv u zemljama sa relativno nerazvĳenim i nelikvidnim tržištima kapitala i akcĳa. Model zidanja utvrđuje diskontnu stopu projekta tako što na bezrizičnu stopu prinosa “zida” odnosno dodaje subjektivno procenjenu potrebnu cenu kapitala za različite vrste rizika koje ugrožavaju uspešnu realizacĳu projekta. Postoje određene tablice sa definisanim rizicima i unapred određenim skalama (ocenama) tako da se na neki način poveća objektivnost procene diskontne stope i standardizuje način razmišljanja radi uporedivosti dva ili više projekata. Model relativnog vrednovanja utvrđuje adekvatnu diskontnu stopu tako što se na tržištu pronalaze već započeti ili realizovani projekti sličnog tipa i nivoa rizika i onda se na osnovu zahtevanih stopa prinosa (kamatnih stopa) za takve projekte utvrđuje potrebna diskontna stopa za novi projekat.

Zaključak

Svako projektno finansiranje je slučaj za sebe odnosno ima nešto po čemu se razlikuje od drugih projekata. Međutim, dobro poznavanje tehnika za ocenu rentabilnosti projekata i iskustvo i poznavanje načina identifikovanja i kvantifikovanja rizika kojima se kreditori izlažu u projektnom finansiranju sigurno značajno doprinose uspešnĳoj selekcĳi projekata koji će biti finansirani i uslova pod kojim će biti finansirani. Svi učesnici u projektnom finansiranju moraju biti veoma oprezni u analizi rizika i rentabilnosti projekta kako bi se projekat na kraju završio uspešno i generisao veće koristi od ulaganja.

Literatura / References

1. Blagoje Paunović - “Investicione odluke preduzeća u uslovima grupnog upravljanja”, Beograd 1994.

2. Dragomir Vojnić - ”Investicĳe i ekonomski razvoj”, Ekonomski institut Zagreb, 1970.

3. Dubravko Bendeković i grupa autora “Priručnik za primenu Zajedničke metodologĳe za ocenjivanje društvene i ekonomske opravdanosti investicĳa i efikasnosti investiranja u SRJ”, Udruženje banaka Jugoslavĳe, 1988.

4. Steve Curry and John Weiss - “Project Analysis in Developing Counties”, The MacMillan Press Ltd, 1993.

5. James C. Van Horne- “Fundamentals of Finansial Management”, Prentice-Hall Inc. New Jersey, 1974.

6. Aswath Damodaran - “Measuring Investment Returns”, Stern School of Business

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called hurdle rate), the decision on project’s profitability being made on the basis of comparison between the internal rate of return and the project’s discount rate. All the above-mentioned and many other risks on which the successful implementation of the project, i.e. the expected cash flows (revenues) generated by the project depend, must be integrated into the required price of capital, and the discount rate. There are many ways to determine the adequate discount rate of a project, but their detailed elaboration exceeds the scope of this paper. In short, some of the popular ways of determining the project’s discount rate are the CAPM model, the discount rate build-up model, the relative valuation model. The CAPM model uses market information on the level of risk-free rates of return (interest rate on treasury bills), the average market rates of return, and the level of sensitivity (risk) of the project in relation to the changes in average market rates of return on capital. This model is difficult to apply in the countries with the relatively undeveloped and illiquid capital and shares markets. The build-up model determines the project’s discount rate by “building up”, i.e. adding the subjectively estimated, required price of capital for different types of risk jeopardizing the successful implementation of the project, to the risk-free rate of return. There are certain matrices containing already defined risks and scales (assessments) set in advance,

so that, in a way, the objectivity of discount rate assessment would be increased and the manner of thinking standardized, with a view to enabling comparability between the two or more projects. The model of relative valuation determines the adequate discount rate by finding the already launched or implemented projects of a similar type and risk level at the market, and, on the basis of the required rates of return (interest rates) for such projects, determining the required discount rate for the new project.

Conclusion

Each case of project finance is a case for itself, i.e. it has something to differentiate it from the other projects. However, sufficient knowledge of the techniques for the project profitability assessment, and the experience in and knowledge of the ways of identifying and quantifying the risks the creditors are exposed to in project finance certainly contribute significantly to the more successful selection of projects that will be financed, and the conditions under which they will be financed. All participants in project finance must be very cautious in their risk and project profitability analysis, so that, at the end, the project would be successfully completed and could generate benefits larger than the investments.

Documents

ocena rentabilnosti i rizičnosti projektnog finansiranja