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UPSTREAM | MIDSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | FUEL & TRANSPORT
Outlook for Refining and Petrochemicals
炼油与石化展望
John Paisie 约翰派西
President 总监, Stratas Advisors
www.stratasadvisors.com
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 2
Refining Perspective 炼油观点
Key Takeaways 关键要点
Petrochemical Perspective 石化观点
Main Themes 主题
Refining Capacity Outlook & Refinery Investments
炼油产能展望和炼厂投资
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 4
Major Themes 主题
Changing Energy Mix
能源结构的改变
Intensifying
Regulatory
Environment
监管环境的加强
Shifting
Energy Flows
能源流动的改变
Evolving
Transportation
Sector
持续发展的汽车工业
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Others Naphtha LPG Kerosene Jet Fuel Gasoline Fuel Oil Diesel
Global Oil Product Demand by Product
全球油品需求按产品分类
Global (2018-2040)
• Global demand is projected to grow from 96 MMBPD in 2018 to 110 MMBPD in 2040
全球需求预计将从2018年的每天9600万桶增长到2040年的每天1.1亿桶
• Gasoline, Jet Fuel, LPG and naphtha are the key drivers behind demand growth
汽油,航油,液化石油气和石脑油是需求增长的主要推动力
Source 来源: Stratas Advisors
Units | Million BPD
每天百万桶
其他 石脑油 液化石油气 煤油 航油 汽油 燃料油 柴油
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 6
Global Light-Duty Vehicle Stock From 2018 Through 2028 从2018年至2028年全球轻型车辆总量
Global Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet (2018 – 2028)
全球轻型车辆总量(2018-2028年)
Global LDVs by 2018 – 1.33 Billion
2018年全球轻型车辆总量 - 13.3亿
• Africa – 54.7 million 非洲 – 5470万
• Asia – 500.9 million 亚洲 – 5.009亿
• Europe – 321.8 million 欧洲 – 3.218亿
• Latin America – 116.5 million 拉丁美洲 – 1.165亿
• North America – 341.8 million 北美 – 3.418亿
Global LDVs by 2028 – 1.76 Billion
2028年全球轻型车辆总量 - 17.6亿
• Africa – 74.8 million 非洲 – 7480万
• Asia – 781.3 million 亚洲 – 7.813亿
• Europe – 388.2 million 欧洲 – 3.882亿
• Latin America – 150.7 million 拉丁美洲 – 1.507亿
• North America – 367.3 million 北美 – 3.673亿
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
LD
V F
lee
t (B
illio
ns
)
Global Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet
全球轻型车辆总量
Africa Asia
Europe Latin America
North America
2018 – 2028 CAGR
2018-2028年复合平均增长率
• Global 全球 2.9%
• Africa 非洲 – 3.2%
• Asia 亚洲 – 4.5%
• Europe 欧洲 – 1.9%
• Latin America 拉丁美洲 – 2.6%
• North America 北美 – 0.9%
Source 来源: Stratas Advisors
非洲 亚洲
欧洲北美 拉丁美洲
(十亿)
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 7
Global Light-Duty BEV & PHEV Stock From 2018 Through 2028 从2018年至2028年全球轻型电池电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车车辆总量
Global LDV BEV & PHEV Fleet (2018 – 2028)全球轻型电池电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车车辆总量(2018-2028年)
Global EVs by 2018 – 4.8 Million
2018年全球电动汽车车辆总量 - 480万
• Africa – 500 非洲 – 500
• Asia – 2.2 million 亚洲 – 220万
• Europe – 1.2 million 欧洲 – 120万
• Latin America – 76,000 拉丁美洲 – 76,000
• North America – 1.4 million 北美 – 140万
Global EVs by 2028 – 52.1 Million
2028年全球电动汽车车辆总量 - 5210万
• Africa – 18,000 非洲 – 18,000
• Asia – 28.6 million 亚洲 – 2860万
• Europe – 14.3 million 欧洲 – 1430万
• Latin America – 890,000 拉丁美洲 – 89万
• North America – 8.3 million 北美 – 830万
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BE
V &
PH
EV
Vo
lum
e (
Millio
ns
)
Global BEV & PHEV Fleet
全球电池电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车车辆总量
Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America
2018 – 2028 CAGR
2018-2028年复合平均增长率
• Global 全球 – 24.2%
• Africa 非洲 – 42.1%
• Asia 亚洲 – 24.1%
• Europe 欧洲 – 25.9%
• Latin America 拉丁美洲 – 27.8%
• North America 北美 – 21.6%
Source 来源: Stratas Advisors
(百万)
非洲 亚洲 欧洲 拉丁美洲 北美
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 8
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2014 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Others Naphtha LPG Kerosene Jet Fuel Gasoline Fuel Oil Diesel
Asia Pacific – Oil Product Demand 亚太油品需求
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
Units | MBPD
每天百万桶Asia Pacific (2018-2030)
• Regional demand growth - CAGR of 1.3% growth between 2018 and 2040 区域需求增长 - 2018年至2040年间复合年增长率为1.3%
• Demand drivers - gasoline, jet fuel, LPG and naphtha 需求驱动因素 -汽油,航油,液化石油气和石脑油
• Fuel oil demand to decrease at a CAGR of 0.5% 燃料油需求以0.5%的复合年增长率下降
其他 石脑油 液化石油气 煤油 航油 汽油 燃料油 柴油
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 9
Asia Pacific – Incremental Oil Product Demand
亚太油品需求增量Units | MBPD
每天百万桶Asia Pacific (2018-2040)
• Asia Pacific region’s oil product demand growth will be concentrated in gasoline, LPG, naphtha, and jet fuel
亚太油品需求增长将集中在汽油,液化石油气,石脑油和航油
• Demand for kerosene and fuel oil will continue to decline 对煤油和燃料油的需求将继续下降
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2017-18 2018-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40
Others Naphtha LPG Kerosene Jet Fuel Gasoline Fuel Oil Diesel
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
其他 石脑油 液化石油气 煤油 航油 汽油 燃料油 柴油
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 10
Global CDU Capacity Additions by Region
全球原油蒸馏装置按地区产能增加
Global (2018-2040)
• Over 48% of global CDU capacity
additions between 2019 and 2025
will be in Asia Pacific region
2019年至2025年期间,超过48%的全球CDU产能增加将来自亚太地区
• CDU capacity additions in Middle
East and Africa will account for 25%
and 16% of global capacity
additions between 2019 and 2025
在2019年至2025年期间,中东和非洲的CDU产能增加将占全球产能增加的25%和16%
Units | Million BPD
每天百万桶
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Russia and CIS North America Middle East Latin America Europe Africa Asia
俄罗斯和独联体 北美 中东 拉丁美洲 欧洲 非洲 亚洲
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 11
Asia Pacific: CDU Capacity Additions by Country
亚太原油蒸馏装置按国家产能增加Asia Pacific (2018-2040)
• China and India to lead Asia’s future refining capacity additions 中国和印度将引领亚洲未来的炼油产能增加
• Malaysia and Brunei to start new refineries in 2019 and 2020 马来西亚和文莱将在2019年和2020年开始新的炼厂
• Various grassroots refining projects are planned in Indonesia, Pakistan and Myanmar 计划在印度尼西亚,巴基斯坦和缅甸开展各种基层炼油项目
Units | Million BPD
每天百万桶
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
China India Malaysia Vietnam Others中国 印度 马来西亚 越南 其他
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 12
Gasoline Trade Flows to Asia Will Increase
流入亚洲的汽油贸易将增加
From Latin America to
Asia:
0
Africa to Asia:
0
Units | MBPD
每天百万桶
From North America
to Asia:
2017: 7
2020: 7
2025: 7
From Russia & CIS to
Asia:
2017: 33
2020: 76
2025: 53
Total Imports to Asia:
2017: 147
2020: 353
2025: 511
From Middle East
to Asia:
2017: 0
2020: 46
2025: 80
From Europe to Asia:
2017: 107
2020: 224
2025: 372
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
北美到亚洲
欧洲到亚洲
俄罗斯到亚洲
中东到亚洲
非洲到亚洲
拉丁美洲到亚洲
到亚洲总进口
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 13
Diesel Trade Flows to Asia Will Stay Stable
流向亚洲的柴油贸易将保持稳定
Latin America to Asia:
0
Africa to Asia:
0
Units | MBPD
每天百万桶
North America to
Asia:
2017: 46
2020: 56
2025: 72
Russia & CIS to Asia:
2017: 264
2020: 108
2025: 201
Total Import to Asia:
2017: 366
2020: 255
2025: 366
Middle East to Asia:
2017: 56
2020: 91
2025: 93
Europe to Asia:
0
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
北美到亚洲
欧洲到亚洲俄罗斯到亚洲
中东到亚洲
非洲到亚洲
拉丁美洲到亚洲
到亚洲总进口
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 14
Asia - Refining Capacity and Complexity
亚洲炼油产能和复杂性
Asia-Conversion and Hydroprocessing to CDU Ratios (2018)
亚洲转换和加氢处理至原油蒸馏装置的比率 (2018)
Asia-Conversion and Hydroprocessing to CDU Ratios (2025)
亚洲转换和加氢处理至原油蒸馏装置的比率 (2025)
• China has the highest conversion to CDU ratio in Asia 中国在亚洲的转换至CDU比率最高
• Japan has the highest hydro-processing to CDU ratio in Asia 日本在亚洲的加氢至CDU比率最高
Note: Bubble sizes represent total CDU capacities
注意:气泡大小代表总CDU容量
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Hyd
rop
rocessin
g t
o C
DU
Rati
o
Conversion to CDU Ratio
China
India
Japan
S.Korea
Singapore
Indonesia
Taiwan
Thailand
Malaysia
Australia
China CDU:
16.9 MMBPD
Australia CDU:
0.46 MMBPD
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
Hyd
rop
rocessin
g t
o C
DU
Rati
o
Conversion to CDU Ratio
China
India
Japan
S.Korea
Singapore
Indonesia
Taiwan
Thailand
Malaysia
Australia
China CDU:
18.9 MMBPD
Australia CDU:
0.52 MMBPD
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
中国印度日本韩国新加坡印度尼西亚台湾泰国马来西亚澳大利亚
中国印度日本韩国新加坡印度尼西亚台湾泰国马来西亚澳大利亚
澳大利亚CDU:每天46万桶
澳大利亚CDU:每天52万桶
中国CDU:每天1690万桶
中国CDU:每天1890万桶
转换至CDU比率转换至CDU比率
加氢至CDU比率加氢至CDU比率
Petrochemical Perspective 石化观点
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 16
Global Petrochemical Demand 全球石化需求
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Ethylene Propylene
Units | Million TPA
每年百万吨
Global Olefins and Aromatics Demand (2018-2040)
全球烯烃和芳烃需求量(2018-2040)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Benzene Toluene Para Xylene Mixed Xylene
• Olefins demand will continue to grow
from 250 to 400 million TPA 烯烃需求将继续增长从每年2.5亿吨增加到4亿吨
• Ethylene will increase by 96 million TPA
乙烯将每年增加9600万吨
Units | Million TPA
每年百万吨
MX
• Aromatics demand will continue to grow from
160 to 230 million TPA 芳烃需求将继续增长从每年1.6亿吨增加到2.3亿吨
• Benzene and Para xylene will have the
strongest growth 苯和对二甲苯的增长最为强劲
Source来源: Stratas Advisors Source来源: Stratas Advisors
乙烯 丙烯 苯 甲苯 对二甲苯 混合二甲苯
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 17
Asia Pacific – Petrochemical Demand 亚太石化需求
0
50
100
150
200
250
2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Ethylene Propylene
0
50
100
150
200
250
2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Benzene Toluene Para Xylene Mixed Xylene
Units | Million TPA
每年百万吨Asia Pacific Olefins and Aromatics Demand (2018-2040)
亚太烯烃和芳烃需求量(2018-2040)
• Ethylene demand is projected to grow at a CAGR
of 3.3% between 2020 and 2040 预计到2020年至2040年,乙烯需求将以3.3%的复合年增长率增长
• Propylene demand is forecasted to grow at a
slightly higher annual rate 丙烯需求预计将以略高的年增长率增长
• Aromatics demand is projected to grow at
a CAGR of 2.0% between 2020 and 2040
预计到2020年至2040年间,芳烃需求将以2.0%的复合年增长率增长
• Benzene and para xylene will lead the
growth 苯和对二甲苯将引领增长
Source来源: Stratas Advisors Source来源: Stratas Advisors
乙烯 丙烯 苯 甲苯 对二甲苯 混合二甲苯
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 18
Asia-Pacific Petrochemical Balances
亚太石化供需平衡Units | Million TPA
每年百万吨Olefins and Aromatics Balances
烯烃和芳烃供需平衡
• Asia is expected to become increasingly short with respect to olefins and para xylene… 预计亚洲对烯烃和对二甲苯的供应将越来越不能满足需求......
• …while remaining long with respect to benzene ...虽然对苯将保持供应超越需求
• South Korea and Japan are leading benzene exporters in Asia 在亚洲,韩国和日本是苯的主要出口国
• Asia’s PX deficits will grow to 3 MTPA in 2025, with much of deficits in China 亚洲对二甲苯的缺口量将在2025年增长到每年300万吨,其中中国占大部分
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2025
Ethylene Propylene Benzene
Toluene Para Xylene Mixed Xylene
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2018
Ethylene Propylene BenzeneToluene Para Xylene Mixed Xylene
Source来源: Stratas Advisors Source来源: Stratas Advisors
乙烯
甲苯 对二甲苯 混合二甲苯
苯丙烯
甲苯 对二甲苯 混合二甲苯
苯 乙烯 丙烯
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 19
Asia Pacific Ethylene Capacity Outlook (2018-2025)
亚太乙烯产能展望(2018-2025)
2018: 65 Million Tons
China Japan South Korea India Others
2025: 95 Million Tons
China Japan South Korea India Others
China will account for more than 52% of Asia Pacific region’s total ethylene production capacity in 2025
到2025年,中国将占亚太地区乙烯总产能的52%以上
中国 日本 韩国 印度 其他 中国 日本 韩国 印度 其他
2018年:6500万吨 2018年:9500万吨
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 20
Petrochemical Feedstock Demand by Region
各地区石化原料需求Global (2018)
• Naphtha represents about 89% of total petrochemical feedstock in Asia Pacific region石脑油占亚太地区石化原料总量的89%
• Growing preference for LPG as chemical feedstock in Asia, particularly in China as PDH capacity expands drawing
supplies from the US 由于丙烷脱氢产能扩大吸引了从美国的供应,因此液化石油气在亚洲作为石化原料越来越受欢迎,特别是在中国
Units | Million Tons
每年百万吨
0
50
100
150
200
250
Africa Asia-Pacific Europe LatinAmerica
Middle East NorthAmerica
Russia &CIS
Gas Oil Naphtha Butane Propane Ethane
柴油 石脑油 丁烷 丙烷 乙烷
非洲 亚洲 欧洲 拉丁美洲 中东 北美 俄罗斯和独联体
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 21
Source 来源: Stratas Advisors Global NGL Service 2018 全球天然气液体订阅服务
Global Ethane Net Trade Flows 全球乙烷净贸易流量
年份
俄罗斯到欧洲俄罗斯到亚洲
美国到亚洲
每天百万桶
北美到欧洲
阿拉伯海湾到欧洲
阿拉伯海湾到亚洲北美到亚洲
北美到拉丁美洲
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 22
Incremental New Supply between 2017 and 2030 从2017年至2030年间增加新增供应量
Significant Growth Ahead in LPG Supply
液化石油气供应量大幅增长
• We show that LPG supply will come from three major sources (field, refinery and liquefaction)我们表明液化石油气供应将来自三个主要来源(油田,炼厂和液化)
• Global LPG supply is projected to grow by 38% or 2,946 Mbbl/d from 2017 levels of 7,701 Mbbl/d 全球液化石油气供应预计将从2017年的77.01亿桶增长38%,或29.46亿桶
• Saudi Aramco has plans to finance projects across Asia which will lead the way in providing new LPG supply from refineries 沙特阿美公司计划为亚洲各地的项目提供融资,这将引领炼厂提供新的液化石油气供应
• Aramco plans to double both its refining and petrochemical capacities by 2030 阿美公司计划到2030年将其炼油和石化产能翻番
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Propane Field Supply Butane/iButane Refinery Supply Butane/iButane Field Supply
Propane Refinery Supply Propane Supply from Liquefaction Butane Supply from Liquefaction
Units: Mbbl/d 每天百万桶
丙烷田供应 丁烷/异丁烷炼厂供应 丁烷/异丁烷田供应
丙烷炼厂供应 液化丙烷供应 液化丁烷供应
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 23
Feedstocks Impact on Cracker Margins
原料对裂解利润率的影响
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2018 2020 2025 2030 2040
$ U
S/ M
T
Ethane NGL Naphtha Gas oil Refinery Off Gas
每吨美元
Source来源: Stratas Advisors
乙烷 天然气液体 石脑油 柴油 炼厂废气
Key Takeaways 关键要点
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 25
Refining Sector 炼油行业
• US refineries will continue to enjoy structural advantages for the next 10
years 美国炼油厂将在未来10年继续享有结构优势
• The Middle East has made significant investment and has many additional
refining projects planned 中东已经进行了大量投资,并计划了许多额外的炼油项目
• As time goes on – the refining environment could become more
competitive… 随着时间的推移 - 炼油环境可能会变得更具竞争力......
• …but Asian refineries with the appropriate configuration and supply chain
can be successful ......但具有适当配置和供应链的亚洲炼厂可以取得成功
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 26
Petrochemical Sector 石化行业
• Petrochemical demand is expected to continue to grow at a robust pace 预计石化需求将继续强劲增长
• Asia represents the bulk of the demand growth 亚洲是需求增长的主要部分
• Capacity additions in the US and the Middle East are being driven by access to
advantaged feedstocks 美国和中东的产能增加受到优势原料的推动
• Ethane-based crackers will enjoy a structural advantage 以乙烷作为原料的裂解装置将享有结构优势
• Demand growth could be negatively affected by reduction in the use of plastics
for packaging… 包装用塑料的减少可能会对需求增长产生负面影响......
• ….because of environmental concerns ......因为环境问题
© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 27
Need to Take a Strategic Approach 需要采取战略方针
• Understand your portfolio of businesses within the context of current environment and future
environment 在当前环境和未来环境的背景下了解您的业务组合
• Invest only in assets and positions for which structural advantages can be established –
structural disadvantages cannot be overcome through improving operations 仅投资可以建立结构优势的资产和头寸 -通过改善运营无法克服结构性缺点
• Consider opportunities across time horizons and in terms of materiality – and the organizational
capabilities required for success 考虑跨越时间范围和重要性的机会 -以及所需的组织能力以争取成功
• Assess current and future risk factors – and the ability to manage – and the impact on ability to
drive risk-adjusted returns 评估当前和未来的风险因素 -以及管理能力 -以及对推动风险调整回报能力的影响
• Utilize a comprehensive business model that links forward-looking strategies with capabilities,
assets and external network to drive value for all stakeholders 利用全面的业务模型,将前瞻性战略与能力,资产和外部网络联系起来,为所有利益相关者创造价值
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Stratas Advisors, a Hart Energy company, is a global consulting and advisory firm that covers the full spectrum of the energy sector and related industries. We can help
you develop a deeper understanding of the developments that are shaping the future of oil & gas. Our support includes customized consulting that is focused on a client’s
specific strategic objectives, competitive challenges and asset base. Additionally, we offer support through subscription services and comprehensive market studies
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