Risk of wind farms on white-fronted宗谷岬ウィRisk of wind farms on white fronted

geese by avian collisionsィンドファー

• Risk-tradeoff• Development of renewable power

ム

Development of renewable powergeneration

• vs Collision risk of endangered birds• vs. Collision risk of endangered birds• Possible risk of wind turbines on birds

障壁効果 (Di t b l di t di l t– 障壁効果 (Disturbance leading to displacement or exclusion, including barriers effect)衝突による死亡 (collision mortalit )– 衝突による死亡 (collision mortality)

– 生息地の喪失 (Loss of, damage to, habitat resulting from wind turbines and associated

1

resulting from wind turbines and associated infrastructure)

K t k ik杉本寛氏

KatanokamoikeAwara cityfuture Wind

Farm

G i t

Farm

Geese migrate every morning/evening

Feeding site

22007/6/22 2

Overwintering Habitats of geeseNo geese/prefecture

杉本寛氏

No. geese/prefecture

加賀市加賀市

Katanokamoike約3000羽

新潟（1 122宮城（92,493羽）

新潟（1,122羽）

福井（1,059羽）

Source Ministry of Environment

羽）

島根（3,970 y平成17年度「全国ガンカモ科一斉調査」目的 ：生息状況の把握調査日 ：平成18年1月15日

（予備日 1月8 22日）

羽）

32007/6/22 3

（予備日： 1月8～22日）調査地 ：全国約9000地点の湖沼等調査方法：目視

Do geese pass through wind farm? 雁

Wind farm3月7日～3月23日22 morning/evening（Japan Wild Bird Society 2006）

Wind farm

（Japan Wild Bird Society 2006）

44Wintering migration reproduction

Method杉本寛氏

110m1000m

②

③Passing through the wind farm site (P1)

Af

1 P 110m

30m

②wind farm site (P1)

( 1 - Af ) P1

1 - P1

①④

Passing within the height of the rotor disk (P2)

Collision avoida

1 - P2

Passing within the

P2

avoidance

At

Repetition of Tc times

garea of the rotor disk (P3)

( 1 A ) P

1 - P3

1 - P4

t

Colliding with a rotor (P )

( 1 - At ) P3

Collisio

4

55

( Desholm et al. 2006 )

rotor (P4) nP4 Collision risk [C] = p1 * p2 * p3 * bCollision risk [C] = p1 * p2 * p3 * b

P1geese

#observations 103P1 ( Desholm et al. 2006)2

Passing through the wind farm site (P1)

Af

1 P

#observations 103

#passing W.F. 2# 3000016/1/3

Pr

wind farm site (P1)

( 1 - Af ) P1

1 - P1 # geese 3000

Average size of flock

200

esentation for110m1000m

②

③

Passing within the height of the rotor disk (P2)

Collision avoida

1 - P2

flockp1 [%] 0.1

105 r Dr. A

mano

30m

Passing within the

P2

avoidance

At

Repetition of Tc times 133

①④g

area of the rotor disk (P3)

( 1 A ) P

1 - P3

1 - P4

t

2..103

6Colliding with a rotor (P )

( 1 - At ) P3

Collisio

4

6

6rotor (P4) nP4

風車の断面積 23 ×=p

Method P3

2

　計画地断面積

3p

016/1/3Pr• p3 ：passing

マガン ヒシク

③風車の断面積 [p3] パラメータ

esentation for

p p gwithin cross section of turbine

マガン・ヒシクイ

Area of WF 80000 r Dr. A

mano

section of turbineArea of WF cross section[m2]

80000( 80 * 1000)

[ ]Area of turbine cross

10053( 40 * 40 * π

7

section [m2](* 2 )

p3 [%] 12.6

7

7

※風車10基、2列と仮定風車の壁は5つ

Collision to blade

パラメータ 値：マガン

K 1D or 3D (0 or 1) 1 ※(Band et al. 2007

※

b # blades 3c Width of blade（m） 2 8 ※c Width of blade（m） 2.8 ※

γ Pitch angle 15 ※

l Body length of bird（m） 0 8 （1 0）ddr )r p(r,1b 2 ∫∫= ϕϕ l Body length of bird（m） 0.8 （1.0）

w Width of bird wings 0.8 （1.0）

F Glid ? 1 ※

Rr d

Rr p(r) 2 　

)p( ,πR 2

∫

∫∫

⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛

⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛=

ϕϕ

F Glider? 1 ※

v Velocity of bird（m/sec） 16.7（ ）

RR∫ ⎠⎝⎠⎝

④ R Radius of blade（m） 40s Period of rotation（sec） 2.46

④

β 鳥の縦横比 1.0 （1.0）

Ω speed（rad/s） 2.55 ※8

8r 鳥の通過地点の半径

α Entering angle of bird v/(r*Ω)

8

G id d i d f i D k杉本寛氏

Geese avoided wind farm in Denmark

Before establishment ofBefore establishment of wind farm, 40% of geese passed throughgeese passed through the farmAfter the establishmentAfter the establishment, 4.5% of geese passed there 0 6% of geesethere, 0.6% of geese approached within 50m of turbines

1000m

92007/6/22 9

of turbinesDesholm & Kahlert 2005. Biology Letters 1:296-298.

A id b h i2

Avoidance behavior016/1/3

Pr

⑤avoidance パラメータ

ガン・カモ類• Af ：avoiding W.F. esentation for

ガン・カモ類

# turbines 72 ( 98 )# blade length [m] 41

g

)0 404/0 045(-1Af = r Dr. A

mano

g [ ]interval turbine [m] 850interval turbine [m] 480• At ：avoiding

) 0.404 / 0.045 (-1 Af =

%passing W.F. 40.4Passing Farms 4.5Passing turbins 12 3)82/480()0 123)1(1(1At 1/8 ×=

At ：avoiding turbine

10

Passing turbins 12.3Pass <50m [%] 0.6Avoiding farm [%] 88.9

) 82 / 480 () 0.123)-1 (-1 (-1 At ×=

10

10

( Desholm et al. 2005 )

o d g a [%]Avoiding turbine [%] 90.5

P1If geese avoid wind turbines 0.95羽）

ガン

P2

g ）

If geese do not avoid turbines（87.1羽）

])1(1[1)1( 4321cT

tf PPAPPAC −−−−=マガン

p1 0.1P3

50%])1(1[ 4321

cTn PPPPC −−=

])1(1[1)1( 4321 tfa PPAPPAC

p2 78.9p3 12.6b

30%

40%

度abili

ty

b 13.0Af 88.9

Af：

10%

20%頻度

# pr

oba

At 90.5Cn 0.0081

At

Cn：collision risk

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

#

Ca 0.000111

Cn：collision risk without avoidance 推定衝突個体数# bird collisions

N⎟⎞

⎜⎛

11

11Ca：collision risk

with avoidancexNx PP

xN

xN −••• −⎟⎟

⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛== )1(]Pr[

Comparison with P1 data from Japan wild bird society

2016/1/3Pr

JPEC JWBS# b i

esentation for

#observation n 103 39Passing WF m 2 ４

r Dr. A

mano

Passing WF m 2 ４Average flock size p 200 1632Average flock size p 200 1632# individuals 3 9 167 4

12

# d dua sthrough WF mp/n

3.9 167.4

12

12

Potential biological removal

20

g

PBR N /2×R ×F (B l t l 007/6/2213

• PBR＝Nmin/2×Rmax×Fr (Barlow et al. 1995))

• マガンPBR = 3000/2×0.12×0.5 = 90羽

Ad ti t• Adaptive management:If collision frequency is larger than we expected, we regulate the operation rate to reduce collision risk– E.g., we stop turbines every morning and evening

(2 hours) collision will be eliminated13

(2 hours), collision will be eliminated.

3 passing routes in 2012p g

Evening February 9

Morning March 20

Morning February 11

14Source: J-Power

Collision risk estimateunder the assumption that avoidance rate is the same as Denmark.

J Power JWBS

pCollision risk depends on E[individuals through WF]

We can calculate the risk from J Power JWBS

#observation n 103 39

the risk from either data

Passing WF m 2 ４

200 1 32Average flock size p 200 1632

indvdl through WF per day mp/n 3 9 167 4indvdl through WF per day mp/n 3.9 167.4

E(No. collision) with i d

0-2 12-30avoindance

E(No. collision) no 42-71 1700avoindance

15Sugimoto H, Matsuda H (2011) Ornithological Science 10:61 Unibio Press Award in 2012.

nsensus of Awara Wind Farm Management with Japan Wild Bird Socie

Mitigation Measures Monitoring PurposeMitigation Measures Monitoring Purpose2010 Watch every morning/

evening; stopping operation Collect the frequency of passing the site

Improve the collision risk assessmentD t t i k f twhen flock approaches (depending weathers) Detect risk factors

2011 Watch during snow seasonI l ti diti

Improve mitigation measuresImprove regulation condition measures

2012 Watch with limited regulation Video monitoring Consensus of very low collision risk

2013～

Follow-up Mitigation may restart if collision occurs,

Accountability in risk communication

i i16Source J-Power

Adaptive risk management and consensus building

L d t風力発電所の設置例① （自然公園内設置）

日本風力発電協会鹿野委員資料４を改変

Landscape controversy

視点場Ｅ：伊良湖国民休暇村西側海岸より風車建設計画地点を望む

計画前現況 フォトモンタージュ

172007/6/22 17

Lifecycle CO2 emissiongCO2/kWh

Coal thermalOil thermal

LNG thermalLNG thermalLNG total

N lNuclearHydropower

di t

GeothermalSolar indirectdirectWind power

indirect

182007/6/22 18

発電費用の比較発電費用の比較

*80万円/kW**100万円/kW円† 専焼 ‡混焼

Oil cogene

Gas cogene

Solar house

Mega solar

oil

biomass‡

biomass†

Small hydr

Small hydr

Hydropow

e

Thermal

Wind (land

ＬＮＧ

Coal

Nuclear

ration

eration

erro**

ro-*

er

d)

総合資源エネルギー調査会発電コスト検証ワーキンググループ（第6回 平成27年4月27日（月））http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/mitoshi/cost_wg/006/ 19

Does wind power generation pay?島田泰夫氏の試算島田泰夫氏の試算

一部改変一部改変

• Does not pay without any support from government• If price is as high as solar power, it pays.• Consumer price is >20yen/kw

Unit Case 1 Case 2 Case 3a.Price (supply side) Yen/kw 10 10 13

• Consumer price is >20yen/kw.

( pp y )b.Power capacity kW 932 932 932c.#days /year day 365 365 365d #hours/day hour 24 24 24d.#hours/day hour 24 24 24e. operation performanc ％ 20% 20% 20%①Income / year 1000\ 16,329 16,329 21,227f Miti ti t 1000\ ？f. Mitigation cost 1000\ ？

h. Cost of establishment 1000\ 233,000 233,000 233,000i.Support from Governm ％ 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%interest / year % 4% 4% 4%j.term of repayment 年 17 17 17②repayment/year 1000\ 12,283 19,152 19,152

2020

p y y③Running cost \/yr 2,000 2,000 2,000④net income(①－②－③) 2,045 -4,824 75

丸山康司氏

Local community establishes Wind farm in Shirakami world heritage

市民風車の波及効果市民風車の波及効果

白神ツア 特産品の開発白神ツア 特産品の開発

Wind farm in Shirakami world heritage

212007/6/22 21白神ツアー・特産品の開発白神ツアー・特産品の開発