19
&DSLWROXO9, 6HULLFURQRORJLFHDQDOL]DWHDWkWSULQSULVPDFRPSRQHQWHORU FkWœLDQHVWD LRQDULW LLœLFRLQWHJU ULL ’DWHOH VWDWLVWLFH FDUH UHIOHFW UH]XOWDWHOH DQXDOH WULPHVWULDOH OXQDUH HWF SULYLQG DFWLYLW LOH HFRQRPLFHVHFDUDFWHUL]HD] QXDWkWSULQVWDELOLWDWHFkWPDLFXUkQGSULQIOXFWXD LLGHODRSHULRDG OD DOWD &URQRJUDPHOH YH]L )LJXUD œL )LJXUD vQI LœkQG HYROX LD XQRU YDULDELOH HFRQRPLFH VXQWHORFYHQWHvQDFHVWVHQV ’LQ SHUVSHFWLYD HFRQRPHWULHL SUREOHPD HYROX LHL SURFHVHORU HFRQRPLFH vQ WLPS LQWHUHVHD] GDWRULW XUP WRDUHORUPRWLYH P VXUDUHD UROXOXL XQRU IDFWRUL FDOLWDWLYL QHQXPHULFL FDUH vœL GHVI œRDU DF LXQHD vQ GHFXUVXO WLPSXOXL SURJUHVXO WHKQLF DFXPXO ULOH GH EXQXUL SURFHVHOH GH vQY DUH HWF SRDWH IL DERUGDW OXkQGvQFDOFXOYDULDELODWLPSSULYLW FDXQœLUGHQXPHUHvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF DF LXQHD XQRU FDX]H QX DIHFWHD] LQVWDQWDQHX YDULDELOD HIHFW FL GXS XQ LQWHUYDO GH WLPS ODJ PDLPXOWVDXPDLSX LQvQGHOXQJDW’HDLFLLQWHUHVXOSHQWUXFXQRDœWHUHDGLVWDQ HLvQWLPSODFDUH VH PDQLIHVW LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU LQWHUYDOXOXL GLQWUH HYROX LD XQRU YDULDELOHVHPQDO YDULDELOH SUHFXUVRDUH œL PRGLILFDUHD YDULDELOHL HIHFW vQWkU]LHUHD OD FDUH DSDU LPSOLFD LLOH HFRQRPLFH JHQHUDWHGHP VXULOHJXYHUQDPHQWDOH HYLGHQ LHUHD LQYDULDQ LORU WHQGLQ D HYROXWLY RVFLOD LLOH VLVWHPDWLFH vQ VHQVXO P VXU ULL LQWHQVLW LLDFHVWRUDœLPRGHO ULLUROXOXLORUvQHYROX LDYLLWRDUHDSURFHVXOXLHFRQRPLF 7HQGLQ DJHQHUDO 5HSUH]HQW ULOH JUDILFH YH]L )LJXUD œL )LJXUD HYLGHQ LD] SH OkQJ LQVWDELOLWDWHD LQGLFDWRULORU œL IDSWXO F vQ JHQHUDO HYROX LD FXUVXOXL GH VFKLPE )LJXUD HVWH vQ FUHœWHUH LDU FHDDGDWRULHLH[WHUQH)LJXUDLQGLF VHPQHGHvQFHWLQLUHDFUHœWHULLDSURSLLQGXVHGHXQQLYHO VWDELO 7DEHO (YROX LD FXUVXOXL GH VFKLPE PHGLX OXQDU OHLGRODU 68$ vQ LQWHUYDOXO 9,,, ;,, , ,, ,,, ,9 9 9, 9,, 9,,, ,; ; ;, ;,, )LJXUD 7DEHO (YROX LD GDWRULHL H[WHUQH SH WHUPHQ PHGLX œL OXQJ D 5RPkQLHL GDWH DQXDOH SULYLQGVLWXD LDOD;,,DILHF UXLDQGLQLQWHUYDOXO

pagina2

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • &DSLWROXO9,

    6HULLFURQRORJLFHDQDOL]DWHDWkWSULQSULVPDFRPSRQHQWHORU

    FkWLDQHVWD LRQDULW LLLFRLQWHJU ULL 'DWHOH VWDWLVWLFHFDUH UHIOHFW UH]XOWDWHOHDQXDOH WULPHVWULDOH OXQDUHHWFSULYLQGDFWLYLW LOHHFRQRPLFHVHFDUDFWHUL]HD] QXDWkWSULQVWDELOLWDWHFkWPDLFXUkQGSULQIOXFWXD LLGHODRSHULRDG ODDOWD&URQRJUDPHOHYH]L)LJXUDL)LJXUDvQI LkQGHYROX LDXQRUYDULDELOHHFRQRPLFHVXQWHORFYHQWHvQDFHVWVHQV 'LQSHUVSHFWLYDHFRQRPHWULHLSUREOHPDHYROX LHLSURFHVHORUHFRQRPLFHvQWLPSLQWHUHVHD] GDWRULW XUP WRDUHORUPRWLYH P VXUDUHD UROXOXL XQRU IDFWRUL FDOLWDWLYL QHQXPHULFL FDUH vL GHVI RDU DF LXQHD vQ GHFXUVXO

    WLPSXOXL SURJUHVXO WHKQLFDFXPXO ULOHGHEXQXULSURFHVHOHGHvQY DUHHWFSRDWHILDERUGDW OXkQGvQFDOFXOYDULDELODWLPSSULYLW FDXQLUGHQXPHUHvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF

    DF LXQHDXQRUFDX]HQXDIHFWHD] LQVWDQWDQHXYDULDELODHIHFWFLGXS XQ LQWHUYDOGH WLPSODJPDLPXOWVDXPDLSX LQvQGHOXQJDW'HDLFLLQWHUHVXOSHQWUXFXQRDWHUHDGLVWDQ HLvQWLPSODFDUHVH PDQLIHVW LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU LQWHUYDOXOXL GLQWUH HYROX LD XQRU YDULDELOHVHPQDO YDULDELOHSUHFXUVRDUH L PRGLILFDUHD YDULDELOHL HIHFW vQWkU]LHUHD OD FDUH DSDU LPSOLFD LLOH HFRQRPLFHJHQHUDWHGHP VXULOHJXYHUQDPHQWDOH

    HYLGHQ LHUHD LQYDULDQ LORU WHQGLQ D HYROXWLY RVFLOD LLOH VLVWHPDWLFH vQ VHQVXO P VXU ULLLQWHQVLW LLDFHVWRUDLPRGHO ULLUROXOXLORUvQHYROX LDYLLWRDUHDSURFHVXOXLHFRQRPLF

    7HQGLQ DJHQHUDO

    5HSUH]HQW ULOHJUDILFHYH]L)LJXUDL)LJXUDHYLGHQ LD] SHOkQJ LQVWDELOLWDWHDLQGLFDWRULORULIDSWXOF vQJHQHUDOHYROX LDFXUVXOXLGHVFKLPE)LJXUDHVWHvQFUHWHUHLDUFHDDGDWRULHLH[WHUQH)LJXUDLQGLF VHPQHGHvQFHWLQLUHDFUHWHULLDSURSLLQGXVHGHXQQLYHOVWDELO7DEHO(YROX LDFXUVXOXLGHVFKLPEPHGLXOXQDUOHLGRODU68$vQLQWHUYDOXO9,,,;,,

    , ,, ,,, ,9 9 9, 9,, 9,,, ,; ; ;, ;,,

    )LJXUD7DEHO (YROX LD GDWRULHL H[WHUQH SH WHUPHQ PHGLX L OXQJ D 5RPkQLHL GDWH DQXDOH

    SULYLQGVLWXD LDOD;,,DILHF UXLDQGLQLQWHUYDOXO

  • $QXO

    \PLOOHL

    )LJXUD

    7DEHO1XP UXOPLLORFXLWRULGHORFXLWRULGLQ%XFXUHWLvQLQWHUYDOXO

    )LJXUD

    7(1',1 $ *(1(5$/ GHQXPLW L WUHQG VH PDQLIHVW FD R PRGLILFDUH XQLIRUP

    FRQVHFYHQW FXHDvQV LI U DVSHULW LH[SULPkQGvQWURIRUP VWLOL]DW HYROX LDXQXLIHQRPHQvQGHFXUVXOXQHLSHULRDGHvQGHOXQJDWH

    2 OHJH FYDVLJHQHUDO GH HYROX LH D IHQRPHQHORU GLQ QDWXU L VRFLHWDWH SRDWH IL SXV vQHYLGHQ GH FXUED ORJLVWLF $VWIHO GH HYROX LL vQWkOQLP DWXQFL FkQG XUP ULP vQ WLPS QLYHOXOYkQ] ULORU XQXL SURGXV SH SLD D LQWHUQ QXP UXO SRSXOD LHL XQHL UL JHQHUDOL]DUHD XQHL QRLWHKQRORJLLvQSURGXF LHFRQVXPXOvQFD]XOXQXLQRXSURGXVSHSLD

  • )XQF LDORJLVWLF UHSUH]LQW XQPRGHODOFUHWHULLFDUHGHIDSWLQFOXGHPDLPXOWHWHQGLQ HvQVXFFHVLXQH$VWIHOvQSULPDID] HYROX LDSRDWHILVFKL DW SULQWURGUHDSW SHQWUXFDDSRLFUHWHUHDV GHYLQ H[SRQHQ LDO SkQ vQSUHDMPDSXQFWXOXLGHLQIOH[LXQH

    Q FRQWLQXDUH HYROX LD DPLQWHWHGHR IXQF LH VHPLORJDULWPLF LDU vQSDUWHD ILQDO SXWHPDSHODODXQSROLQRPGHJUDGXOGRLQUDSRUWFXHYROX LDIHQRPHQXOXLvQWLPSSXWHPDYHDvQYHGHUHLDOWHPRGHOHHYROXWLYHUHGDWHSULQIXQF LLQHOLQLDUHvQYHGHUHDH[SULP ULLVWLOL]DWHD WUDLHFWRULHLHYROXWLYH Q YHGHUHD IDFLOLW ULL FDOFXOHORU VH UHFRPDQG SHQWUX PDMRULWDWHD IXQF LLORU QHOLQLDUHWUDQVIRUPDUHDvQYDULDQWDOLQLDUL]DW

    $VWIHOGDF HYROX LDXQXLSURFHVHVWHFRUHFWGHVFULV GHUHOD LD

    XW

    ED\ ++=

    QORFXLQG ]W

    =

    VHDMXQJHODIRUPDOLQLDU

    XE]D\ ++= Q FD]XO HYROX LHL GHVFULVH GH XQ SROLQRP GH JUDG PDL PDUH GHFkW XQX GH H[HPSOX

    XFWEWD\ +++= VHvQORFXLHWHW

    ]FHHDFHFRQGXFHODXF]EWD\ +++=

    QFD]XOIXQF LHLORJDULWPLFHDYkQGXUP WRDUHDIRUP XWED\ ++= ORJORJ

    QORFXLQGSH ORJ Z\ = ORJ ]W = VHDMXQJHODIRUPDOLQLDU XE]DZ ++=

    )RUPXOHOH XWLOL]DWH SUHVXSXQ H[LVWHQ D XQHL UHOD LL IXQF LRQDOH GH WLSXO WI\ = 'HSHQGHQ D YDULDELOHL \ GH HYROX LD WLPSXOXL W WUHEXLH vQ HOHDV vQ VHQVXO F \GHSLQGH GH XQ DQVDPEOX GH IDFWRUL D F URU HYROX LH vQ GHFXUVXO WLPSXOXL SRDWH IL VLQWHWL]DW GHFUHWHUHDvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF DYDULDELOHLW 7HQGLQ D RE LQXW vQ FD]XO XQHL FRUHFWH VSHFLILF UL D PRGHOXOXL UHSUH]LQW R HYROX LH vQPHGLHRPHGLHvQPLFDUH9DORULOHHPSLULFH\ VHVLWXHD] vQMXUXOWHQGLQ HLGHVFULLQGIOXFWXD LLVLVWHPDWLFHDIHFWDWHHYHQWXDOGHSHUWXUED LHvQFD]XOHYROX LLORUFXVH]RQDOLWDWHVDXFLFOLFLWDWHVDXVLPSOHDEDWHULGHWLSDOHDWRUFDXUPDUHDDF LXQLLIDFWRULORUDFFLGHQWDOL ([WUDSRODUHDWHQGLQ HLSHQWUXSHULRDGHYLLWRDUHFDGHDOWIHOLLQWHUSRODUHDYDORULORUDEVHQWHGLQ FDGUXO VHULHL FURQRORJLFH LPSOLF DFFHSWDUHD LSRWH]HL FRQVHUY ULL GLQDPLFLL DQVDPEOXOXL GHIDFWRULFDUHLQIOXHQ HD] YDULDELODHIHFW QYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUSRDWHILXWLOL]DW 0&003'DWRULW HYROX LHLFXRUD LHFRQVWDQW DYDULDELOHL WLPS VH UHFRPDQG vQGHRVHELGDF IXQF LDHVWHSROLQRPLDO QXPHURWDUHDFHORU Q SHULRDGH DVWIHO vQFkW = W $VWIHO SHQWUX Q LPSDU W= UHVSHFWLY SHQWUX Q SDU W = ; ; ; ; ; ; $FHDVW QRWD LH FRQGXFH ODVLPSOLILFDUHD IRUPXOHORU GH HVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU Q FD]XO IXQF LHL OLQLDUH \ = D D W X UHOD LLOHLGHYLQ

    Q

    \

    D WW

    =

    ( )

    =

    W

    WW

    W

    W\

    D

    !

    QFHOHFHXUPHD] QHSURSXQHPV H[HPSOLILF PPRGDOLWDWHDGHGHWHUPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HLDWkWSHQWUXFD]XO vQFDUHVHDFFHSW YDULDQWD OLQLDU SULYLQGHYROX LDFXUVXOXLGHVFKLPE)LJXUDFkW L SHQWUX FD]XO QHOLQLDU SULYLQG HYROX LD GDWRULHL H[WHUQH FD] vQ FDUH DGRSW P IXQF LDVHPLORJDULWPLF XWED\ ++= ORJ 5H]XOWDWHOHSUHOLPLQDUHVXQWUHGDWHvQWDEHOXOGHPDLMRV

  • 7DEHOXO

    7HQGLQ DOLQLDU WED\ +=

    W \ \W W

    \

    7RWDO

    ==D

    ==E

    7DEHOXO

    7HQGLQ DQHOLQLDU WED\ ORJ += W ORJW \

    -=D

    =E Q FD]XO SROLQRPXOXL GH JUDGXOGRL "" XWDWDD\ +++=

    #

    #$% VH DMXQJH vQXUPDDQXO ULL

    GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL SHQWUX H[SUHVLD PLQ WDWDD\ WW

    --- OD

    XUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LLvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUH = = WW

  • = +

    ==

    = +

    WW

    WW

    W

    W

    W

    W

    WW

    W

    \WWDWD

    W

    W\

    DW\WD

    \WDDQ

    6LVWHPXOSHUPLWHRE LQHUHDHVWLPD LLORUFXXQQXP UUHGXVGHFDOFXOHQFD]XOIXQF LLORUQHOLQLDUHFDUHDXGHYHQLWOLQLDUHvQXUPDXQRUWUDQVIRUP ULVH LQHVHDPD

    HYLGHQWGHQDWXUDWUDQVIRUP ULORUHIHFWXDWHSURFHGkQGXVHvQFRQVHFLQ QFHHDFHSULYHWHIXQF LDORJLVWLF PHQ LRQ PF HDGHVFULHVFKHPDWLFHYROX LDXQXLQXP UPDUHGHIHQRPHQHLSURFHVHvQGHRVHELvQVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHLSRWH]DDGPLWHULLXQXLPHGLXvQFKLVGHGHVI XUDUH D FUHWHULL HVWH SODX]LELO 0RGHOXO ORJLVWLF SRDWH IL H[SULPDW vQ PDL PXOWH YDULDQWHGLQWUHFDUHPHQ LRQ P

    &

    FED\

    +=

    XQGHDEF SDUDPHWULL

    W

    '

    (

    )

    H

    D\ **

    +

    +=

    XQGHW QD SDUDPHWUXUHSUH]HQWkQGOLPLWDVXSHULRDU GHFUHWHUHE SDUDPHWUXH

    ,

    LQGLF SR]L LDFXUEHLvQUDSRUWFXD[DWLPSXOXLF SDUDPHWUXFDUHH[SULP SDQWDFXUEHLDEF!

    9DULDQWDHVWHXWLOL]DW FXSUHF GHUHvQVWXGLLOHHFRQRPLFHLGHPRJUDILFH9LWH]DGHFUHWHUH H[SULPDW GH SULPD GHULYDW D IXQF LHL GHVFULV GH UHOD LD HVWH SURSRU LRQDO FXUDSRUWXO FD 3XQFWXO GH LQIOH[LXQH D FXUEHL HVWH GH FRRUGRQDWH EFD Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUDELFHVWHXWLOL]DW ILH0&003ILHPHWRGDSXQFWHORUHFKLGLVWDQWH$FHDVW GLQXUP PHWRG SUHVXSXQH VHJPHQWDUHD VHULHL FURQRORJLFH vQ WUHL S U L HJDOH GHILQLQG GLQ ILHFDUH RYDORDUHFDUDFWHULVWLF YDORDUHDGHPLMORF\\\'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHF UHOD LDIDFHSRVLELO HJDOLWDWHD

    \

    \DH

    -.

    / -=

    0

    \

    \DFWE

    -=- OQ

    DWXQFLvQORFXLQGYDULDELOD\FXYDORULOHFHORUWUHLYDULDQWHRE LQHP

    SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW

    OQ

    \

    \DE

    -=

    SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW N

    OQ

    \

    \DFNE

    -=-

    SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW N

    OQ

    \

    \DFNE

    -=-

    XQGHN GLVWDQ DvQWUHYDORULOHFDUDFWHULVWLFH

    1

    (JDOLW LOHIRUPHD] XQVLVWHPGHWUHLHFXD LLFXWUHLQHFXQRVFXWH

    2

    3

    QWUDGHY UFHDGHDGRXDGHULYDW D IXQF LHLVHDQXOHD] SHQWUX FEW = LDUH[SUHVLD SHQWUX FEW = HVWHHJDO FX D

  • (YROX LDXQXLSURFHVHFRQRPLFSHRWUDLHFWRULHGHWLS6SRDWHHYLWDID]DILQDO GHVWDJQDUHXUPDW GH VF GHUHD GH QLYHO SULQ DWUDJHUHD XQRU QRL IDFWRUL LQRYD LL vQ WHKQRORJLH IDFLOLW L ODFXPS UDUH LQWUDUHDSHQRLSLH HHWFFDUHV UHODQVH]HSURFHVXOSHRWUDLHFWRULHFDUHUHLDODRDOW VFDU HYROX LD DQWHULRDU 6XFFHVLXQHD GH DVWIHO GH IXQF LL ORJLVWLFH GHVI XUDWH OD QLYHOH WRWPDLvQDOWHHVWHGHVFULV GHDDQXPLW &85% 1) 85 72$5(2DVWIHOGHUHSUH]HQWDUHGHVFULHLSHUPLWH H[WUDSRODUHD XQHL HYROX LL GHVI XUDWH SH FRDPD XQHL FXUEH GH WLS 6 QI XU WRDUHD HVWHDVWIHO R WDQJHQW FRPXQ WXWXURU FXUEHORU GHVI XUDWH vQ VXFFHVLXQHD vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO GH WLPS GHUHJXO vQGHOXQJDW2SUH]HQWDUHIRUPDO DXQHLDVWIHOGHHYROX LLDUHvQYHGHUHH[LVWHQ DXQHLIDPLOLLGHFXUEHIW\a a$)LHFDUHFXUE HVWHGHILQLW SH, 4 >D 4 E 4 @QXQHDS UDWGLVMXQFWLYH

    'HILQLP vQI XU WRDUHD DFHVWRU FXUEH IXQF LD 5, C 5 5 DVWIHO FD PD[

    =

    \

    \WI a

    3UREOHPD SRDWH IL SXV vQ FRQWH[WXO GHWHUPLQ ULL XQXL H[WUHP FX OHJ WXUL SHQWUX FDUH FRQVWUXLPODJUDQJLDQXO

    /W\al \lW\a (JDODUHD FX ]HUR D GHULYDWHORU vQ UDSRUW FX \a Ll UHSUH]LQW FRQGL LD QHFHVDU SHQWUXDWLQJHUHD XQXL H[WUHP8OWLPHOH GRX HFXD LL OD FDUH VH DMXQJH UHSUH]LQW XQ VLVWHP FDUH LQFOXGHSULQWUHVROX LLLSHFHOHGHVWLQDWHUH]ROY ULLSUREOHPHLGHPD[LPFDUHQHVW vQDWHQ LH ([WUDSRODUHD SH FXUED vQI XU WRDUH D IRVW DSOLFDW vQGHRVHEL vQ WHKQRORJLH GHL HFRQRPLDSULQSURFHVHOHGHWUDQ]L LHHYROX LDFHUHULLLQRYD LDvQODQVDUHDLUHODQVDUHDSURGXVHORUHWFRIHU XQGRPHQLXGHVFKLVFHUFHW ULLLVWXGLLORUDSOLFDWLYHSULQDFHDVW PHWRG 7HQGLQ D LQGLIHUHQW GH IXQF LD XWLOL]DW VH RE LQH vQORFXLQG SDUDPHWULL FX HVWLPDWRULLRE LQX LSULQ0&003VDXDOWHPHWRGHLDWULEXLQGYDORULvQVXFFHVLXQHYDULDELOHLW

    3UHYL]LXQHDUH]XOWDW FDRH[WUDSRODUHDWHQGLQ HLVHRE LQHVLPLODUGDUYDORULOHYDULDELOHLWVXQWSURLHFWDWHvQYLLWRU$VWIHOSHQWUXPRGHOXOOLQLDURE LQHPXUP WRDUHOHYDORULSURJQR]DWHSULYLQGFXUVXO GH VFKLPEPHGLX OXQDU vQ OXQLOH LDQXDULH IHEUXDULHPDUWLH L DSULOLH OHLOHLOHLOHL

    QFHHDFHSULYHWHPRGHOXOQHOLQLDUSUHGLF LLOHSULYLQGGDWRULDH[WHUQ SHQWUXDQLLLVXQWGHPLOOHLLUHVSHFWLYPLOOHL 3UHGLF LLOH RE LQXWH SULQ H[WUDSRODUH vQ UDSRUW FX VXFFHVLXQHD YDORULORU W VXQW WULEXWDUHHYROX LHL DQWHULRDUH ILLQG OHJDWH RUJDQLF GH DFHDVWD SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO SDUDPHWULORU $FHVWD HVWHSULQFLSDOXO PRWLY SHQWUX FDUH SURJQR]HOH GH DFHVW JHQ VXQW XQHRUL HWLFKHWDWH GUHSW SUHYL]LXQLQDLYH VDX JHQHUHD] DSUHFLHUL VFHSWLFH FRUHVSXQ] WRU F URUD HFRQRPLWLL UHXHVF V HODERUH]HSUHYL]LXQLSULYLQGWUHFXWXO'DUGDF DYHP vQYHGHUH VSHFLILFXOHYROX LHLXQXLQXP UPDUHGHYDULDELOHHFRQRPLFHQXVHSRDWHQHJDIDSWXOF vQFRQGL LLQRUPDOHGHGHVI XUDUHSUHGRPLQDQ DIDFWRULORU FDUH DF LRQHD] vQ VHQVXO FRQVHUY ULL WHQGLQ HL IDFH FD H[WUDSRO ULOH SULYLQG vQGHRVHELYLLWRUXODSURSLDWV ILHvQJHQHUDOFRQILUPDWHGHUHDOLWDWHQVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHVHSUHFRQL]HD] VDXVHSUHY GVFKLPE ULLPSRUWDQWHvQUkQGXOIDFWRULORUFHGHWHUPLQ IHQRPHQXO\SURJQR]HOHED]DWHSHH[WUDSRO ULQXVXQWLQGLFDWHvQWUXFkWFRQGL LLOHGLQWUHFXWQXVHUHJ VHVFILHLODPRGXOJHQHUDOvQYLLWRU

    6

    Q XUPDXQRU DUWLILFLL DOJHEULFH FDUH VH UHIHU OD HOLPLQDUHDQHFXQRVFXWHLF vQXUPDVF GHULLSURGXVXOXLFHOHLGHDGRXD HFXD LLPXOWLSOLFDWH FX GLQ FHD GHD WUHLD HFXD LH HOLPLQDUHD QHFXQRVFXWHLE GLQ VLVWHPXO IRUPDW GH UH]XOWDWXODQWHULRULHFXD LDLL]RODUHDQHFXQRVFXWHLDFDUHvQXUPDDQWLORJDULWP ULLHYLGHQ LD] RHFXD LHGHJUDGXOGRL5 G FLQDSR]LWLY DHFXD LHLGLQXUP HVWH

    7

    7

    @>

    \\\

    \\\\\\D

    -

    +-= VROX LHFDUHSULQvQORFXLUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLDGLQHFXD LDIDFH

    SRVLELO RE LQHUHD HVWLPD LHL SHQWUX E UHVSHFWLY vQORFXLQG vQ HFXD LD RE LQHP HVWLPDWRUXO F 0LK LO 1 0DWHPDWLFLVSHFLDOHDSOLFDWHvQHFRQRPLHYROOLWR$6(%XFXUHWL

  • 6H]RQDOLWDWHD

    6H]RQDOLWDWHD UHSUH]LQW DFHD FRPSRQHQW VLVWHPDWLF FH VH PDQLIHVW SULQ RVFLOD LL GHSHULRDG PDLPLF VDX HJDO FX XQ DQ UHSHWDELOH vQ WLPS'HQXPLUHDGH VH]RQDOLWDWH VHPQDOHD] FDX]DSULQFLSDO DDFHVWRUIOXFWXD LLFDUHFRQVW vQVFKLPEDUHDDQRWLPSXOXL3ULQH[WHQVLHDFHVWJHQGH IOXFWXD LL VH UHIHU L OD LQWHUYDOH PDL PLFL GHFkW XQ VH]RQ WULPHVWUX FXP DU IL OXQD VDXV SW PkQDQDFHVWFD]HOHVDUSXWHDGDWRUDLDOWRUIDFWRULGHFkWFHLFOLPDWHULFLLDVWIHOGHIDFWRULSRWILWUDGL LDYDFDQ HOHFRODUHSODWDVDODULLORUUHSDXVXOGXPLQLFDODOWHUQDQ D]LQRDSWHFLFOXULOHELRORJLFHHWF 'LQSXQFWGHYHGHUHDOSRVLELOLW LORUGHP VXUDUHVH]RQDOLWDWHDVHPDQLIHVW VXEIRUPDXQRUDEDWHULGH ODPHGLHFDUH UHYLQVLVWHPDWLF$FHVWDVSHFWGHRVFLOD LH vQ MXUXOXQXLQLYHOGH UHIHULQ PHGLDVHREVHUY PDLFODUODVHULLOHVWD LRQDUH $VWIHOvQYDULDQWDDGLWLY PRGHOXOSRDWHILIRUPXODWFDRVXP GHPHGLL

    8 998 9 XV\\ ++=

    XQGHL PDQLM KVH]RDQH

    \\V

    K

    \

    \

    ::

    ;

    ; :

    :

    -=

    =

    ([HPSOXSULYLQGPRGXOGHHYDOXDUHDVH]RQDOLW LL

    6HFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSULYLQGHYROX LDSURGXF LHLGHFLPHQWvQ5RPkQLDvQDQLLLFLIUHURWXQMLWHUHSUH]HQWkQGVXWHGHPLLWRQHVHULDILLQGVWD LRQDU vQFHLGRLDQL

    7DEHOXO

    7ULP , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,93URGXF LD

    0HGLDWULPHVWULDO HVWH =\ UH]XOW DVWIHO ===+==-= \\\\ YDORUL FDUH VH UHSHW DQ GH

    DQ 0DLIUHFYHQWHVXQWVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHVHULDHVWHQHVWD LRQDU LQFOXGHLWHQGLQ DJHQHUDO QDVWIHO GH VLWXD LL GDWHOH HPSLULFH VH UDSRUWHD] OD WHQGLQ PHGLD vQ PLFDUH &DOFXOHOH GHFXUJFRQIRUPXQXLDOJRULWPGHVFULVvQWDEHOXO ([HPSOX

    6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG SURGXF LD GH EHUH RE LQXW vQ GRL DQL VXFFHVLYL vQ5RPkQLDYDORULURWXQMLWHUHSUH]HQWkQGVXWHGHPLLGHKHFWROLWUL 7HQGLQ DFDLYDORULOHH[WUDSRODWHDOHWHQGLQ HLYH]L7DEHOXOFRORDQDDXUH]XOWDWvQXUPDDSOLF ULLPRGHOXOXLOLQLDU

    W\ ? -=

    ----=W

  • SHQWUXFDUH

    -=-

    =

    ==

    D

    D

    QFHSULYHWHVH]RQDOLWDWHDDXIRVW FDOFXODWH

  • 0RGHOXO&DORWGHDERUGDUHVLPXOWDQ DWUHQGXOXLLVH]RQDOLW LLQWUXFkWSURFHVHOHHFRQRPLFHQHVWD LRQDUHLFXVH]RQDOLWDWHSUH]LQW RVFLOD LLVLVWHPDWLFHSH

    IRQGXOXQHL WHQGLQ H HYROXWLYH L vQ LQWHUDF LXQH FX HD VD F XWDW FD L UHSUH]HQW ULOHSULQPRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHSULYLQGDVWIHOGHHYROX LLV ILHFRQIRUPHDFHVWHLUHDOLW L2DVWIHOGHUHSUH]HQWDUHRFRQVWLWXLH PRGHOXO HODERUDW GH SURIHVRUXO IUDQFH] *HUDUG &DORW ,SRWH]HOH DYXWH vQ YHGHUH ODGHILQLUHDPRGHOXOXLVXQW

    WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO HVWHOLQLDU VH]RQDOLWDWHD HVWH VWD LRQDU RVFLOD LLOH S VWUHD] SHULRDGHOH vQ FDUH DSDU YkUIXUL L

    F GHUL SHUWXUED LDXUPHD] RGLVWULEX LHQRUPDO

    N

    &RQVWUXLUHD PRGHOXOXL DUH GUHSW SXQFW GH SOHFDUH IRUPD OLQLDU OO XWDD\ ++= PQ

    6H]RQDOLWDWHD HVWH LQWURGXV vQPRGHOSULQGLYL]DUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLD R vQ HOHPHQWH FDUH VH UHIHU ODRUGRQDWDODRULJLQHSULYLQGWUHQGXO$LFRQVWDQWHOHVK FkWHXQDSHQWUXILHFDUHVXESHULRDG DQXDO

    Q FH SULYHWH YDULDELOD W DFHDVWDGHYLQHXQ DJUHJDW FDUHSHUPLWHGHUXODUHD WLPSXOXLSHWULPHVWUHOXQLLDQL$FHDVWDHVWHVLPEROL]DW FXMLKXQGHM KSHULRDGHVXEDQXDOHL PDQL

    0RGHOXOVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO S TUUS TU XVLKMD$\ VV ++++= W

    (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU SRDWH IL I FXW XWLOL]kQG 0&003 (YLGHQW vQ XUPD DQXO ULLGHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH SUHVXSXV GH DFHDVW PHWRG VH DMXQJH OD XQ QXP U GH K HFXD LL 3HQWUX

    IDFLOLWDUHD RE LQHULL UDSLGH D HVWLPDWRULORU XVVVD$ YZZ UHFRPDQG P XWLOL]DUHD UHOD LLORU GHFDOFXOODFDUHVDDMXQVvQXUPDXQRUDUWLILFLLDOJHEULFHHIHFWXDWHDVXSUDVLVWHPXOXLGHKHFXD LL

    [

    \

    &DORW*&RXUVGHVWDWLVWLTXHGHVFULSWLYH'XQRG3DULV]

    &RUHVSXQ] WRU 0&003 PLQLPL]DUHD H[SUHVLHL -+-=ML

    LM LKMD\*

    @> w XQGH ^^ V$ +=w

    SUHVXSXQH DQXODUHD GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL $QXODUHD GHULYDWHORU vQ UDSRUW FX

    += KM_w FRQGXFH OD HJDOLWDWHD = ++ `a

    a

    ``

    `

    a

    \PLKMD bbc v GH XQGH vQ XUPD vPS U LULL ODP

    UH]XOW F +-=L

    MM LKMPD\

    w QWUXFkW wd $Vd L FRQVLGHUkQG = e

    e

    K$ w

    RE LQHP

    f

    +-=

    PKD\$ XQGH \ PHGLDJHQHUDO LQkQGVHDPDGHH[SUHVLLOHDQWHULRDUHSULYLQG gw L$UH]XOW F

    h

    D

    KM\\V ii

    +---=

    'DF DYHP vQ YHGHUH F 0&003 SUHVXSXQH PLQLPL]DUHD H[SUHVLHL

    ( )( )[ ] +++-= -= =

    ++

    PLQPLQP

    L

    K

    MMLKMLKM VLKMD$\X L GDF LQHP VHDPD GH HJDOLWDWHD

    ( ) +-= jkk LKMP

    D\

    lw DMXQJHPODH[SUHVLD

    ( ) ( )

    +++--= mm n

    o o

    n

    o p

    n

    o p

    n

    LKMDLKMP

    D\\Xq

    r

    ss

    r PLQPLQ

    GHXQGHUH]XOW IRUPXODXWLO HVWLP ULLSDUDPHWUXOXL tD YH]LUHOD LD

  • 7ULP

    $QL

    u

    v

    --

    =w

    x

    y

    w

    z

    {

    { \\LPP

    D

    XQGH

    L\ PHGLDVXESHULRDGHLvQDQXOL

    \ PHGLDXQHLVXESHULRDGH

    |

    DPK

    \$+

    -=

    h

    DK

    M\\V ii

    +---=

    XQGH

    M\ PHGLDVXESHULRDGHLMLQGLIHUHQWGHDQ

    ([HPSOX

    8WLOL]kQGGDWHOHSULYLQGSURGXF LDGHEHUHYH]L WDEHOXO FRORDQDSHQWUXDFHDVW VHULH K WULPHVWUH L DQLGDWHOHVXQWSUH]HQWDWH vQWUXQ WDEHOFXGXEO LQWUDUH %X\V%DORWDVWIHOvQFkWV SXWHPRE LQHUDSLGPHGLLOHWULPHVWULDOH

    [ ]

    ( )

    ( )( )VVV

    V

    $

    D

    }~

    -===

    -=----=

    =-+

    -=

    -=-+

    =

    7DEHOXO

    , ,, ,,, ,9 7RWDOL\

    7RWDO

    M\ =\

    $JUHJDWXOFRPSRQHQWHORUVLVWHPDWLFHWUHQGVH]RQDOLWDWHUH]XOW DVWIHO

  • =

    =

    =

    =-++-+=

    =

    =

    =+-+=

    =-++-+=+++=

    \

    \

    \

    \

    \

    \

    \

    VLKMD$\

    &LFOLFLWDWHDQ FHHD FH SULYHWH RVFLOD LLOH LQWHUDQXDOH FLFOLFH FDUDFWHUXO ORU VLVWHPDWLF HVWHPDL SX LQ

    HYLGHQWvQVHQVXOF DWkWLQWHUYDOHOHODFDUHRVFLOD LLOHVHPDQLIHVW FkWLLQWHQVLWDWHDORUSUH]LQW RUHODWLY LQFRQVWDQ vQ GHFXUVXO WLPSXOXL 'HVLJXU DFHVW VSHFLILF DO HYROX LHL FDUH LQFOXGH RVXILFLHQW GR] GH DOHDWRULX vQFkW IDFH GLILFLO vQFRUVHWDUHD vQ PRGHOH SUHGLFWLYH VDU GDWRUDIDFWRULORU JHQHUDWRUL GH DVWIHO GH RVFLOD LL )DFWRULL FHL PDL LPSRUWDQ L FDUH LQIOXHQ HD] FLFOXODIDFHULORU VXQW OHJD L GH UHvQQRLUHD PLMORDFHORU GH SURGXF LH IOXFWXD LL vQ GRPHQLXO LQYHQ LLORUFRQIOLFWHOHVRFLDOHSVLKRORJLDSRSXOD LHLHWF

    2 HYDOXDUH QXPHULF D LQWHQVLW LL YDOXOXL GH UHFHVLXQH VDX D FHOXL GH UHYLJRUDUH LH[SDQVLXQHHFRQRPLF SRDWHILRE LQXW DVWIHO

    HLWHQGDOHQLYHOH

    ]DWHGHVH]RQDOLLQLYHODWHYDORULLFW LQW

    =

    6HPQDO PGHDVHPHQHDYDULDQWD

    -=

    \

    \\L

    XQGH \ WUHQG1XP U WRUXO UHOD LHL SUHVXSXQH HOLPLQDUHD SHUWXUED LHL XWLOL]kQG PHGLL PRELOH

    IXQF LL SROLQRPLDOH HWF SUHFXP L HOLPLQDUHD VH]RQDOLW LL vQ LSRWH]D vQ FDUH DFHDVWD H[LVW RSHUD LXQHFDUHSUHVXSXQHGLYL]DUHDYDORULORUFDUDFWHULVWLFHODLQGLFLLGHVH]RQDOLWDWHQDFHVWIHOODQXP U WRUXOUDSRUWXOXLDSDUYDORULFDUHLQFOXGGRDUWHQGLQ DJHQHUDO LFRPSRQHQWDFLFOLF 5DSRUWkQG DFHVW DJUHJDW WUHQGFLFOLFLWDWH OD WUHQG UH]XOW LQGLFLL GH FLFOLFLWDWH L

    (L SRW ILVXSUDXQLWDUL PDUFkQG H[SDQVLXQHD HFRQRPLF VDX VXEXQLWDUL VHPQDOkQG LQWHQVLWDWHD UHFHVLXQLLHFRQRPLFH

    7HQGLQ DVHULDLQWHJUDW VHULLOHFRLQWHJUDWHLLPSOLFD LLOHDFHVWRUD

    DVXSUDDQDOL]HLUHJUHVLHL

    3UREOHPD H[LVWHQ HL WHQGLQ HL JHQHUDOH vQ VHULD GH GDWH LQWHUHVHD] QX QXPDL VXE DVSHFWXOSURJQR]HL H[WUDSRO ULL HYROX LHL vQ WLPS FL L GLQSHUVSHFWLYD DFXUDWH HL SDUDPHWULORUGH UHJUHVLHHVWLPD LFDLGLQSXQFWGHYHGHUHDODQDOL]HLHFKLOLEUXOXLHFRQRPLFSHWHUPHQOXQJ QHFRQRPLHPDMRULWDWHDVHULLORUHFRQRPLFHSULYLQGLQGLFDWRULLLPSRUWDQ LSUH XULOHFXUVXOGH VFKLPE PDVD PRQHWDU FRQVXPXO H[SRUWXO HWF SUH]LQW WHQGLQ $VWIHO GH VHULL VXQWFRQVLGHUDWH1(67$ ,21$5( )DSWXO F WHUPHQLL VHULHL FURQRORJLFH DX vQ JHQHUDO WHQGLQ H GHFUHWHUHVDXGHVF GHUHvQGHFXUVXOWLPSXOXLIDFHFDPHGLDLUXOXLYDORULORUOXL\ V GLIHUHvQIXQF LH

  • GHPRPHQWXOWGHODFDUHFRQVLGHU PF vQFHSHVHULD0DLPXOWFKLDULGLVSHUVLDLFRYDULDQ DVXQWGHSHQGHQWHGHYDULDELODWLPSW 6(5,$67$ ,21$5 HVWHDFHD VHULHDOHF UHLYDORULRVFLOHD] PDLPXOW VDXPDLSX LQDOHDWRUvQMXUXOXQXLQLYHOGHUHIHULQ PHGLDILLQGGHFLvQWURVWDUHGHHFKLOLEUX0DLSUHFLVVHULDVWD LRQDU HVWH UH]XOWDWXO XQXL 352&(6 672&+$67,& 67$ ,21$5 SHQWUX FDUH PHGLD LGLVSHUVLD VXQW FRQVWDQWH LQGLIHUHQW GH PRPHQWXO GH OD FDUH FRQVLGHU P F vQFHSH VHULD LDUFRYDULDQ DGHSLQGHQXPDLGHGLVWDQ DODJXOGLQWUHXQLW LOHGHWLPSSHQWUXFDUHHVWHFDOFXODW

    >@$DGDU

    \\0 W =

    @> ss =-= WW\ \0\0

    @@>>FRY WNWWWNWW \0\\0\0\\ --= ++ 5HYHQLQG OD VHULLOHQHVWD LRQDUHPHQ LRQ PF R WLSRORJLH DPDQLIHVW ULL WUHQGXOXL vQGDWH

    HYLGHQ LD] GLVWLQFW 7HQGLQ D GH WLS GHWHUPLQLVW FDUDFWHUL]DW SULQ IDSWXO F HVWH LQYDULDELO XRU GH SUHY ]XW

    PHQ LQkQGXVHvQWLPSDWkWFDGLUHF LHFkWLFDSDQW (DSRDWHILLQFOXV vQIXQF LDGHUHJUHVLHFDXQIDFWRUGLVWLQFWVLPEROL]DWFXOLWHUDWDVWIHO

    XWD[DD\ +++=

    7HQGLQ DGHWLSVWRFKDVWLFvQVHQVXOF VHPRGLILF SHGLYHUVHOHVHFYHQ HGHWLPSQ UDSRUW FX PRGDOLWDWHD vQ FDUH HVWH UHFRPDQGDW HOLPLQDUHD WHQGLQ HL GLQ VHULD GH GDWH

    GHRVHELP 6HULL QHVWD LRQDUH GHQXPLWH L VHULL 763 WUHQG VWDWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV vQ FDUH WUHQGXO VH

    UHFRPDQG V ILHHOLPLQDWSULQVF GHUHDDFHVWXLDGLQLUXOGHGDWHHPSLULFHWHUPHQFXWHUPHQ

    WWW \\\ -=

    XQGH =W\ WHQGLQ D

    6HULLQHVWD LRQDUHGHQXPLWHVHULL'63GLIIHUHQFHVWDWLRQDU\SURFHVVHVvQFDUHWUHQGXOVH

    UHFRPDQG V ILH HOLPLQDW SULQ FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL

    --== WWWW \\\\ D

    HYHQWXDOGHRUGLQXOGRL

    --== WWWW \\\\ DDD VDXPDLPDUH Q OLWHUDWXUD HFRQRPHWULF GHGDW PDL UHFHQW vQWkOQLPVHULL FURQRORJLFHFDUDFWHUL]DWHSULQWHUPHQLFD 6(5,( ,17(*5$7

    DFHD VHULH QHVWD LRQDU FDUH SRDWH IL WUDQVIRUPDW vQWUR VHULHVWD LRQDU SULQFDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkLVHULHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQXOvQWkL, DGLF

    --== WWWW \\\\ D LDU GDF WHQGLQ D QX D IRVW HOLPLQDW vQ WRWDOLWDWH VH SURFHGHD] ODFDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO GRL VHULH LQWHJUDW GH RUGLQXO GRL , DVWIHO

    --== WWWW \\\\ DDD HWF6HULD ODFDUHVHDMXQJH vQ ILQDO vQWUXFkWQXPDL LQFOXGH WHQGLQ ILLQGGHFLVWD LRQDU HVWH

    FRQVLGHUDW VHULHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQXO]HUR, 6(5,, &2,17(*5$7( VXQW FRQVLGHUDWH DFHOH VHULL FURQRORJLFH FDUH LQWHJUDWH ILLQG GH

    DFHODLRUGLQDGPLWRFRPELQD LHOLQLDU FDUHHVWHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQ]HURVDXvQRULFHFD]HVWHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQPDLPLFGHFkWRUGLQXOGHLQWHJUDUHDVHULLORU LQL LDOH$VWIHO vQFD]XODGRX VHULL [ \ ILHFDUH ILLQG LQWHJUDW GH RUGLQXO vQWkL GDF H[LVW R FRPELQD LH OLQLDU ] FDUHSRDWH UH]XOWD DVWIHO ] \ [ VDX ] \ [ VDXPDL IUHFYHQW ] \ D D [ FDUH HVWHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQXO]HURDILUP PF FHOHGRX VHULLVXQWFRLQWHJUDWHGHRUGLQXO vQWkL$DGDU

    $YHPvQYHGHUHVHULLOHVODEVWD LRQDUH

    7HUPHQXOHQJOH]HVFLQWHJUDWHDUHLVHPQLILFD LDGHDFRPSOHWDSULQvQVXPDUHDS U LORUFHHDFHvQDQDOL]DVHULLORUGHGDWH DU UHSUH]HQWD R PRGDOLWDWH GH D UHFRPSXQH VHULD SULQ vQVXPDUHD SULPXOXL WHUPHQ FX GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO ,UHVSHFWLYDGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXO,SULQvQVXPDUHDFHORUGHRUGLQXO,,HWF

  • GDF \ , [ , L ] , DILUP PF [ \ &, $VWIHO GH VHULL VXQW FDUDFWHUL]DWHFDILLQGvQWURUHOD LHGHHFKLOLEUXSHWHUPHQOXQJ

    8QLQWHUHVDSDUWHSUH]LQW FRPELQD LDOLQLDU FDUHFRQGXFHODRE LQHUHDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHX ] \ D D [ X FDUDFWHUL]DW FD ILLQG LQWHJUDW GH RUGLQ ]HUR QWUR DVWIHO GH VLWXD LHWHUHQXOHVWHSUHJ WLWSHQWUXRDQDOL] GHUHJUHVLHGHFDOLWDWHvQFDUHHVWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUVXQWFRQVLVWHQ L WHVWXO W L ) RIHULQG UH]XOWDWH LPSRUWDQWH SHQWUX R DVWIHO GH DQDOL] 2 GHILQL LH DFRLQWHJU ULL DYkQGXQJUDGPDLPDUHGHJHQHUDOL]DUHHVWHXUP WRDUHDFRPSRQHQWHOHYHFWRUXOXL; VXQWGHRUGLQEGGDF WRDWHFRPSRQHQWHOHYHFWRUXOXL; VXQW LQWHJUDWHGHDFHODLRUGLQG LGDF H[LVW XQYHFWRUaaDVWIHOvQFkWYHFWRUXO= RE LQXWDVWIHO ;= a = UHSUH]LQW RVHULHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQGEE!>@9HFWRUXO=HVWHGHQXPLWYHFWRUGHFRLQWHJUDUHUHVSHFWLYGDF FRPELQD LDOLQLDU HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW GH GLIHUHQ D \D D [ SDUDPHWUXO D SRDWH IL GHQXPLW SDUDPHWUX GHLQWHJUDUH5HJUHVLDvQV LSHQWUXDVWIHOGHVHULLSRDWHILHWLFKHWDW GUHSWUHJUHVLHGHFRLQWHJUDUHLDUvQWUHJGHPHUVXOHVWHQXPLW$1$/,= '(&2,17(*5$5( 3HQWUX PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF SUH]LQW LQWHUHV DD FXP DP DU WDW vQGHRVHEL VLWXD LD vQFDUHSHQWUXGRX VHULLFRLQWHJUDWHFRPELQD LDOLQLDU \D D [ XHVWHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQ]HUR$FHDVWDDFRQGXVODUHPDUFDWKHYDOXDEOHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHFRQFHSWVRILQWHJUDWLRQXQLWURRWHWFLVWRIRUFHXVWRILQGRXWLIWKHUHJUHVVLRQUHVLGXDOVDUHVWDWLRQDU\>@

    3HQWUX D vQFDGUD R VHULH FURQRORJLF vQWUXQD GLQWUH FDWHJRULLOHPHQ LRQDWH VH DSHOHD] ODUHSUH]HQW ULSULQWDEHOHJUDILFHFURQRJUDPHFRUHORJUDPHGDUPDLDOHVODWHVWHOHVWDWLVWLFH'LQWUHPRGDOLW LOH GH YHULILFDUH UHODWLY QXPHURDVH GHVFULVH vQ DUWLFROHOH L F U LOH GH HFRQRPHWULHPDLUHFHQWHQHUHIHULPvQGHRVHELODDFHOHDFDUHVXQWOHJDWHGLUHFWGHFDOLWDWHDSDUDPHWULORUGHUHJUHVLHGHDILFRQVLVWHQ L

    $VWIHOvQYHGHUHDFDUDFWHUL] ULLVHULHLSULQFDOLILFDWLYXOVWD LRQDU VDXQHVWD LRQDU QHSXWHPED]D SH FURQRJUDP L SH )81& ,$ '( $872&25(/$5( r FDUH H[SULP LQWHQVLWDWHDGHSHQGHQ HLGLQWUHYDORULDOHVHULHLDIODWHODRGLVWDQ GHNXQLW LGHWLPS

    ( )( )[ ]( ) ( ) \\

    NWW

    NWW

    NWWN

    \\

    \0\0\0\0

    \0\\0\0

    =

    --

    --= +

    +

    +ss

    rFRY

    QFD]XOSURFHVHORUVWD LRQDUH \\ =ss DVWIHOvQFkW

    FRY

    \\

    sr = VDXPDLVLPSOX

    FRY

    FRYN

    =r

    QSUDFWLF SURFHG PODHVWLPDUHDIXQF LHLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHXWLOL]kQGXQHDQWLRQGHQYDORUL&DXUPDUHVHRE LQ FRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHU SHQWUXQYDORUL LDUUHOD LDJHQHUDO GHFDOFXOGHYLQH

    -

    --=

    \\

    \\\\

    U

    3HQWUXN RE LQHP

    -

    --=

    =

    -

    =+

    Q

    WW

    Q

    WWW

    \\

    \\\\

    U

    3HQWUXN RE LQHP

    8QXOGLQWUHPRWLYHOHSHQWUXFDUHQXQHOLPLW PODXQVLQJXUWHVWSHQWUXRSUREOHP VROX LHGDW vOUHSUH]LQW LIDSWXOF SDFKHWHOH GH SURJUDPH UHFHQWH LQFOXG R JDP YDULDW GH WHVWH vQGHRVHEL SHQWUX DFHODL RELHFWLY DILDWH SULQVLPEROXULVDXHWLFKHWHODFRQLFHFDUHPHULW V ILHFXQRVFXWH

  • -

    --=

    =

    -

    =+

    Q

    WW

    Q

    WWW

    \\

    \\\\

    U

    9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLFRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LHvQVHQVXOWHVWXOXLW

    SRDWHUHSUH]HQWDXQ FULWHULX GH DSUHFLHUH$VWIHO7(678/%$57/(77 VH ED]HD] SH LGHHD F vQ FD]XO vQ FDUHVHULD FURQRORJLF HVWH SXU DOHDWRDUH FRHILFLHQ LL HVWLPD L GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U U U VXQW

    DSUR[LPDWLY QRUPDO GLVWULEXL L GHPHGLH ]HUR L GH GLVSHUVLHQ

    =s &D XUPDUH GDF DYHP vQ

    YHGHUH UHSDUWL LD QRUPDO UHGXV VWDQGDUG SXWHP VWDELOL LQWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH vQ FDUH VH

    vQFDGUHD] U . NFX3 DVWIHOsU sXQGHQ

    =s

    Q FD]XO vQ FDUH HVWLPD LLOH U VH vQFDGUHD] vQ LQWHUYDOXOPHQ LRQDW DILUP P F LSRWH]DQXO r HVWH FRQILUPDW Q FD] FRQWUDU U VH VLWXHD] vQ DIDUD LQWHUYDOXOXL LSRWH]DQXO HVWHLQILUPDW FHHDFHvQVHDPQ F YDORDUHDOXLr GLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGH]HUR * 3 %R[ L ' $ 3LHUFH DX SURSXV 7(678/ 4 SULYLQG LSRWH]D VLPXOWDQHLW LLQHVHPQLILFD LHLWXWXURUFRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LH+ GHILQLQGDVWIHOYDULDELOD

    =

    UQ4

    FDUHXUPHD] DVLPSWRWLFGLVWULEX LD

    FXPJUDGHGHOLEHUWDWH'DF 4!

    LSRWH]DQXO HVWHLQILUPDW vQVHQVXOF FHOSX LQXQXOGLQWUHFRHILFLHQ LLr GLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGH]HURLDUGDF 4

    VHULDHVWHFRQVLGHUDW VWD LRQDU 2 YDULDQW R UHSUH]LQW L 7(678/ /-81*%2; /%

    SHQWUX FDUH D IRVW GHILQLW YDULDELOD

    -+=

    =

    P

    N

    N

    NQ

    UQQ/%

    7HVWXO/%HVWH UHFRPDQGDW VSUHGHRVHELUHGH WHVWXO4 UHOD LD vQFD]XULOH vQFDUHHDQWLRQXOGHGDWHHVWHUHGXVQ6LPLODUFD]XOXLDQWHULRUSHQWUX/%!

    LSRWH]DQXO HVWHLQILUPDW QXWR LFRHILFLHQ LLr VSUHGHRVHELUHGH/%

    FD]vQFDUH+ HVWHFRQILUPDW FRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHILLQGQHVHPQLILFDWLYL 2PRGDOLWDWHGHYHULILFDUHFXXQVSHFWUXPDLODUJvQVHQVXOF SRDWHILDSOLFDW LSHQWUXDDUJXPHQWDRS LXQHDvQWUHVHULD736LVHULD'36VDXVHULD&, LVHULD&, HVWHWHVWXOU G FLQLLXQLW LL

    81,752277(67$YkQGGUHSWSXQFWGHSOHFDUHPRGHOXO\ U\ X

    9DULDELOD X ILLQG QHDXWRFRUHODW GHPHGLH ]HUR L GLVSHUVLH FRQVWDQW VH FRQVLGHU F SHQWUXU FD]vQFDUH\ \ X YDULDELOD\ HVWHUH]XOWDWXOXQXLSURFHVGHPHUVODvQWkPSODUHILLQGGHFLQHVWD LRQDU 'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHYDULDQWDvQFDUHDSDUHLSDUDPHWUXOOLEHU

    3HQWUXYHULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHVLPSO VHXWLOL]HD] WHVWXO

    --

    = QU

    UW

    *0/MXQJ*3(%R[2QD0HVXUHRI/DFNRI)LWLQ7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV%LRPHWULFDQR

    7HUPHQXOGHXQLWURRWVHUHIHU ODU G FLQLOHXQXLSROLQRPvQFDUHDSDUHXQRSHUDWRU%ODSXWHUHDvQIXQF LHGHP ULPHDvQWkU]LHULL$VWIHOSHQWUX\ %\ SHQWUX\ %

    \ SHQWUX\ %

    \ 'HH[HPSOXPRGHOXODXWRUHJUHVLY\ E \ E \ X W QSRDWHILUHGDWDVWIHO\ l %l %l l %

    X GDF U G FLQLOHl l E Ll l E LDU%HVWHXWLOL]DWvQVHQVXODU WDW&RQGL LDGHVWD LRQDULWDWHSUHVXSXQHFDE E DGLF DWkWl FkWLl V ILHPDLPLFLGHFkWGDUGDF l Ll DILUP PF H[LVW RU G FLQ XQLWDU SHQWUXFDUHE E LE l $DGDUHFXD LD\ E \ E \ X SRDWHILXWLOL]DW SHQWUXDYHULILFDLSRWH]DQXO l GDF l VWDELOLQGGDF E E vQVLWXD LDvQFDUHE

  • \ D \ Y

    XQGHY HURDUHVWD LRQDU GHPHGLH]HURLs

    SULQvQORFXLULVXFFHVLYHDOHYDULDELOHL\ \ FXH[SUHVLLOHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUH

    \ D \ Y \ D \ Y

    VHDMXQJHvQILQDOGXS GHFDODUHDvQWLPSSkQ ODXOWLPXOWHUPHQLvQVXPDUHODH[SUHVLD

    ++= Y\DW\

    VDXPDLVLPSOX\ D D WX XQGH

    D \

    = YX

    1HOVRQ L3ORVVHUGHQXPHVFSURFHVXOGHVFULVGH UHOD LD FD ILLQGXQSURFHV763 LDUHOHPHQWXOFKHLHHVWHWUHQGXOUHSUH]HQWDWvQPRGHOGHYDULDELODW &RQVHPQ P GH DVHPHQHD F YDULDQWD LQL LDO \ D \ Y SRDWH IL UHGDW DYkQG vQVWkQJDHJDOLW LLGLIHUHQ D\ \

    \ \ D Y UHSUH]HQWkQGXQSURFHV'63vQFDUHHOHPHQWXOFKHLHHVWHGLIHUHQ DGHRUGLQXOvQWkL

    \ \ \

    $PEHOHYDULDQWHGHSUHOXFUDUHDPRGHOXOXLLQL LDOGHPHUVODvQWkPSODUH\ D \ X DXFDHOHPHQWFRPXQIDSWXOF XUP UHVFHOLPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HLOLQLDUHH[LVWHQWHvQGDWHDVWIHOvQFkWV VHDMXQJ ODXQUHVWFXUDWSXUDOHDWRU'DF RELHFWLYXOHVWHUHDOL]DWSULQFDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkLDILUP PF SURFHVXOHVWHGHWLS'63LDUGDF GLIHUHQ HOHGHRUGLQXOvQWkLQXUH]ROY SUREOHPD VH UHFRPDQG OXDUHD vQ FDOFXO D WHQGLQ HL L L]RODUHD DFHVWHLD GH GDWHOH LQL LDOH ILHSULQLQFOXGHUHDH[SOLFLW vQPRGHODYDULDELOHLWUHQGILHSULQFDOFXOXOSUHDODELODOWHQGLQ HLLHOLPLQDUHDDFHVWHLDGLQGDWH WWW X\\ =- 3HQWUX D VWDELOL GDF VHULD HVWH GH WLS763 VDX'63DYHP vQYHGHUH7(678/',&.(

  • GDF W W + U HVWHLQILUPDW DFHDVWDvQVHDPQ F VXQWHPvQSUH]HQ DXQXLSURFHV763

    GDF W !W LSRWH]D QXO HVWH DFFHSWDW U SURFHVXO HVWH GH WLS '63 2H[HPSOLILFDUHDFDOFXOHORUHVWHUHGDW vQDSOLFD LDFDUHXUPHD] PHQ LXQLORUUHGDWHvQFRQWLQXDUH 0HQ LXQL

    DQWUXFkWSDUDPHWUXOUVHUHIHU ODFRHILFLHQWXOGHDXWRFRUHOD LHDF UXLYDORDUHHVWHFHOPXOWHJDO FXXQXDXWRFRUHOD LHSHUIHFW UH]XOW F vQFD]XOXQXLSURFHV'63HVWLPDWRULL U QX

    XUPHD] RGLVWULEX LHFkWGHFkWVLPHWULF vQMXUXODGHY UDWHLYDORULU SHQWUXVLPSOXOPRWLYF U QX SRDWH GHS L QLYHOXO XQX 5HSDUWL LD QRUPDO VDX UHSDUWL LD 6WXGHQW QX SRDWH IL GHFL LQYRFDW 6ROX LDDIRVWGDW GH)XOOHUL'LFNH\FDUHDXRE LQXWYDORULFULWLFHSULQVLPXO ULGHWLS0RQWH&DUORSHQWUXGLYHUVHYDULDQWHGHH[SULPDUHDSURFHVXOXLQHVWD LRQDUYDORULSHFDUHOHVLPEROL] PILHW ILHtWDX

    E0&003 SRDWH IL OD IHO GH ELQH DSOLFDW L SHQWUX WUDQVIRUPDUHD OLQLDU D H[SUHVLHL

    OD FDUH DMXQJHP GDF VF GHP GLQ DPEHOH S U L SH \ FHHD FH FRQGXFH OD H[SUHVLD XWD\UD\ ++-+=D 'DF VLPEROL] P FX U E XUPHD] V YHULILF P VHPQLILFD LD

    SDUDPHWUXOXL E vQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUH+ E 9HULILFDUHDGHFXUJHVLPLODUvQWUXFkWDWHVWDGDF E HVWHDFHODLOXFUXFXDYHULILFDGDF =U

    9DULDQWDWHVW ULLVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRUXOXL E HVWHSUHIHUDW GDWRULW IDSWXOXLF PDMRULWDWHDSDFKHWHORUGHSURJUDPHRIHU YDORULSHQWUXWvQFD]XOLSRWH]HLQXOHIRUPXODWHvQUDSRUWFX]HUR+ E

    3HGHDOW SDUWHXWLOL]DUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLERIHU DYDQWDMXODERUG ULLSUREOHPHLvQWURYDULDQW JHQHUDO DPRGHOXOXLDXWRUHJUHVLYvQVHQVXOLQWURGXFHULLWXWXURULQIOXHQ HORUvQWkU]LDWH

    H\EE\\

    +D+=D

    XQGH

    -=

    -=

    -=

    UE

    SM

    UE

    $FHDVW YDULDQW H[WLQV D WHVWXOXL HVWH vQWkOQLW VXE GHQXPLUHD GH 7(678/ $')$XJPHQWHG'LFNH\)XOOHUWHVW

    ([HPSOX

    )LH GRX YDULDELOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH DX vQUHJLVWUDW vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO GH OXQL XUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

    9DORULFULWLFHWVWDELOLWHGH'LFNH\L)XOOHU

    7DEHOXO3REDELOLWDWHDGHDRE LQHRYDORDUHLQIHULRDU

    QLYHOXOXL

    7LSXOGHPRGHO

    GDF Q GDF Q

    \ U\ Y \ D U\ Y

    \ D U\ D WY

    6XUVD76WHZDUG(FRQRPHWULFV7K$OODQ1

  • 9 =

    1H SURSXQHP V FDUDFWHUL] P ILHFDUH VHULH SULQ SULVPD WHVWXOXL %DUWOHWW D WHVWXOXL 4 DWHVWXOXL/%SUHFXPLDWHVWXOXL'LFNH\)XOOHU

    &D]XOVHULHL9

    &RHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHYH]LUHOD LDRE LQX LSHQWUXN VXQWXUP WRULLU U U QWUXFkW FRHILFLHQ LL VH vQFDGUHD] vQ LQWHUYDOXO

    - U - NU DILUP PF VHULDHVWHDOHDWRDUHS

    QFHHDFHSULYHWHWHVWXO4RE LQHPFRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHL4

    $FHDVW YDORDUHHVWHLQIHULRDU QLYHOXOXLWDEHODWc

    $SOLFkQGWHVWXO/MXQJ%R[YH]LUHOD LDUH]XOW F

    ( ) ( )

    =

    -+

    --

    +-

    +=/%

    1LYHOXODFHVWHLYDORULVHDIO PXOWVXEFHODOYDORULL WDEHODWHc

    FHHDFHLQGLF IDSWXOF vQFD]XODPEHORUYHULILF UL4/%VWD LRQDULWDWHDVHULHL9 &D]XOVHULHL=

    &RHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LHRE LQX L U U U VH VLWXHD] vQ

    DIDUD LQWHUYDOXOXL

    - U - NU GLPLQXkQGXVH OHQW FHHD FH

    LQGLF QHVWD LRQDULWDWHD$FHHDLFRQFOX]LHUH]XOW LvQXUPDDSOLF ULLWHVWHORU4L/%4

    ( )

    =

    -+

    -+

    -+=/%

    vQWUXFkWDPEHOHYDORULOHRE LQXWHGHS HVFQLYHOXOYDORULLWDEHODWHc"!$# !&%'

    Q FRQWLQXDUH WHVWXO 'LFNH\ )XOOHU DSOLFDW VHULHL = vQWUXFkW DFHVWD LQFOXGH FRPSRQHQWDWUHQGDFRQGXVFRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHLODHFXD LD

    \ D!

    U\ () D W ] () W 0HQ LRQ PF PDWULFHDLQYHUV ;

    *

    ; +

    vQFDUH;LQFOXGHHOHPHQWHOHYHFWRUXOXLDUWLILFLDOGHHOHPHQWDOHYHFWRUXOXL] () LW VHSUH]LQW vQXUPDFDOFXOHORUDVWIHO

    ( )

    -

    --

    --

    = ,

    -

    ;;

    QWUXFkWU HVWHLQIHULRUOXLUVHULDHVWHQHVWD LRQDU GHWLS7636HSRDWHDILUPDF PRGHOXO W] W += GHVFULHFRUHFWHYROX LD DVSHFWFRQILUPDW LGH IDSWXOF

    =--

    =W HVWHLQIHULRUYDORULLWDEHODWHW YH]LWDEHOXO

    $QDOL]DHIHFWHORUSHFDUHOHJHQHUHD] SUH]HQ DVDXDEVHQ DWUHQGXOXLvQGDWHLvQJHQHUDOvQWUHJ GHPHUVXO GH YHULILFDUH L FDWHJRULVLUH D VHULLORU GH GDWH WHVWH DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUHSUREOHPDU G FLQLORUXQLW LLSUH]LQW LQWHUHVGLQXUP WRDUHOHSXQFWHGHYHGHUH

  • FDOLWDWHD UH]XOWDWHORU PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPHWULF GHSLQGH L GH P VXUD vQ FDUH WHQGLQ DHYROXWLY VHLQWHUSXQHvQDQDOL]DUHOD LHLGHGHSHQGHQ GLQWUHGRX VDXPDLPXOWHSURFHVH3XWHPDILUPDF vQVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHVHULLOHGHGDWHPDLDOHVVHULLOHFURQRORJLFHFRQVWLWXLHED]DGHGDWHLQIHUHQ D VWDWLVWLF VH ED]HD] vQGHRVHEL SH SURSULHW LOH VHULHL JHQHUDWH GH SURFHVHOH VWRFKDVWLFHVWD LRQDUH DD FXP vQ FD]XO XWLOL] ULL GDWHORU SHQWUX XQ HDQWLRQ LQIHUHQ D VWDWLVWLF GHSLQGH GHSURSULHW LOHHDQWLRQXOXLGHDILUHSUH]HQWDWLYLGHYROXPVXILFLHQWGHPDUH>@ 3HQWUXDQDOL]DGHUHJUHVLHHVWHLPSRUWDQWFDYDULDELOHOH\L[ [ V ILHFRLQWHJUDWHFHHDFHLPSOLF VWD LRQDULWDWHDVHULHLUH]LGXXULORU .X DFHDVWDRIHULQGRED] VROLG VROX LLORUHVWLPD LLORU

    SUHFXPLWHVWHORUWL) 0DLPXOWVHSRDWHDUJXPHQWDF SHQWUXGRX VHULL\ [ FRLQWHJUDWH&, /

    #

    0 HVWLPDWRULL 12 DD

    FRQYHUJPDL UDSLG VSUH DGHY UDWHOH YDORUL D!

    LD ILLQG VXSUDFRQVLVWHQ L

    vQGHRVHEL SHQWUX QVXILFLHQWGHPDUH>@ ,QFOXGHUHDvQDQDOL]DGHUHJUHVLHDGRX VDXPDLPXOWHVHULLFDUHQXVXQWFRLQWHJUDWHDYkQGGH UHJXO JUDGHGH LQWHJUDUHGLIHULWHDUHFD UH]XOWDWRE LQHUHDXQXLFRHILFLHQWGHGHWHUPLQDUH5

    DSURSLDWGHXQXSUHFXPLYDORULSHQWUXWFDOFXODWVXSHULRDUHFHORUWDEHODWHvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUHG FDOFXODW WHVWXO 'XUELQ:DWVRQ HVWH DSURSLDW GH ]HUR VHPQDOkQG DXWRFRUHOD LD YDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH Q DVWIHO GH VLWXD LL VH FRQVLGHU F UHJUHVLD UHOHY R GHSHQGHQ FHOSX LQ H[DJHUDW VDXDOWIHOVSXVVXQWHPvQSUH]HQ DXQHLUHJUHVLLvQGRLHOQLFHSDUHDILFRUHFW GDUODRPDLDWHQW YHULILFDUHSUH]LQW VXVSLFLXQL*UDQJHUL1HZEROGDXHWLFKHWDWRDVWIHOGHUHJUHVLHFXGHQXPLUHDGH6SXULRXVUHJUHVVLRQ

    43

    &HLGRLDXWRULDXSURSXVLRPRGDOLWDWHSUDFWLF GHDGHSLVWDIDOVHOHUHJUHVLLDILUPkQGF vQVLWXD LOHvQFDUH5

    !G / 57698 5;:8 69 0 DFHDVWDUHSUH]LQW XQVHPQDOF HVWLPDWRULLVXQWVXVSHF LLDUUHJUHVLDHVWHvQGRLHOQLF

    VSXULRXVGHSDUWDMDUHDvQVHULLGHWLS763L'63SUH]LQW LQWHUHVDWkWSHQWUXSURJQR] vQVHQVXOF

    VHULLOH763 IDF SRVLELO RE LQHUHD GH SURJQR]HSHUIRUPDQWH FKLDU L SH WHUPHQ OXQJ FkW L SHQWUXDQDOL] vQWUXFkW DFHOHDL VHULL 763 WUHEXLH IHULWH GH WUDQVIRUP UL SUHFXP FHOH H[SULPDWH GHGLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL D\ D[ vQWUXFkW DVWIHO GH SUHOXFU UL DU GXFH OD SLHUGHUHD XQRULQIRUPD LLXWLOHOHJDWHvQGHRVHELGHOHJ WXUDSHWHUPHQOXQJGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH

    VHULLOHFRLQWHJUDWHHYLGHQ LD] RUHOD LHGHHFKLOLEUXSHWHUPHQOXQJvQHFRQRPLH(URDUHDX < vQWUXFkW IRUPHD] R VHULH VWD LRQDU FDUH RVFLOHD] vQ MXUXO OXL ]HUR VHPQDOHD] VWDELOLWDWHDHYROX LHL vPSUHXQ D FHORU GRX YDULDELOH $VWIHO GH UHOD LL GH HFKLOLEUX SH WHUPHQ OXQJ SRW ILGHFRQVSLUDWH SULQ DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUH HIHFWXDW SHQWUX YDULDELOHOH HFRQRPLFH LPSRUWDQWHSUHFXPSUH XULLVDODULL LPSRUWLH[SRUWSUH XULLFRVWXULSUH XULOHGLQMXGH XOLLSUH XULOHGLQMXGH XOMHWF = >

    QPRGHOXO\ ? D[ ? XFRQVLGHU PVHULLOH\ ? [ ?&, @ A B A C FHHDFHLPSOLF X ? \D[ ? vQFDUHVHULDX ?, @ D C QP VXUDvQFDUH D VH DEDWH GH OD DGHY UDWD YDORDUH D SDUDPHWUXOXL D vQUHJLVWU P FRUHVSXQ] WRU DEDWHUL DOH VHULHL

    EEE [D\X -= GHODFHHDFHvQ HOHJHPSULQHYROX LHVWD LRQDU 7RWRGDW LvPSU WLHUHDYDULDELOHL FX YDILvQFUHWHUH

    QWUXFkW 0&003 SUHVXSXQH RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPDWRUL FDUH V PLQLPL]H]H vPSU WLHUHD YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH DFHVW

    RELHFWLYVHUHDOL]HD] vQP VXUDvQFDUH D VHDSURSLHGHDDSURSLHUHFDUHHVWHFXDWkWPDLUDSLG FXFkWVHULD GX HVWHPDLDSURSLDW GHVHULDVWD LRQDU = H

    &:-*UDQJHU31HZEROG6SXULRXV5HJUHVVLRQLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFVYRO= I

    'DF vQPRGHOXO\ D D D A [XYDULDELOD[QXUHSUH]LQW XQUHJUHVRUVWRFKDVWLFFLGLPSRWULY SUH]LQW RWHQGLQ HYLGHQW FD]vQFDUH;;QQXFRQYHUJHVSUHXQQLYHOOLPLW RPDWULFHILQLW QHVLQJXODU DIHFWkQGGHFLFRQVLVWHQ DHVWLPDWRULORUQJHQHUDOvQHFRQRPLHVHULLOHGHGDWHVXQWQHVWD LRQDUHUHSUH]HQWkQGUH]XOWDWHVLPLODUHFHORUJHQHUDWHGHSURFHVH GH PHUV OD vQWkPSODUH LQGHSHQGHQWH GDU vQWkPSO WRU DVHP Q WRDUH 7HQGLQ D H[LVWHQW vQ GDWHVXSUDGLPHQVLRQHD] HYHQWXDODGHSHQGHQ [\ DVSHFW VHPQDODWGHYDORULOHFDOFXODWHSHQWUXW WHVWXO W FDUHVXQWVXSHULRDUHFHORUWDEHODWHFKLDULvQVLWXD LLvQFDUHGHSHQGHQ DODFDUHVHUHIHU HVWHVODE LQH[LVWHQW FKLDU$FHDVWDLGDWRULW IDSWXOXL F SHQWUX VHULLOH LQWHJUDWH YDORULOH OXL W L) UH]XOWDWH GLQ FDOFXOH QX XUPHD] UHSDUWL LD 6WXGHQWUHVSHFWLY )LVKHU DD FXP QH DWHSWDP vQ FD]XO DFFHSW ULL LSRWH]HL QXOH 7HVWXO G vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH VHPQDOHD] DXWRFRUHOD LDYDULDELOHL JX HVWHVLQJXUXOFDUHGHFRQVSLU IDOVDGHSHQGHQ &DXUPDUHDWXQFLFkQGGLVSXQHPGHVHULL

    FURQRORJLFH GH GDWH HVWH UHFRPDQGDELO FD DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUH V SUHFHDG DQDOL]D GH UHJUHVLH Q VLWXD LD vQ FDUHH[LVW VHPQDOHFXSULYLUHODRIDOV UHJUHVLHHVWHSUHIHUDELOV vQORFXLPYDORULOHOXL\ ? L[ ? FXGLIHUHQ HOHGHRUGLQXOvQWkLD\D[

  • 0HWRGHOH GH HYDOXDUH D FRPSRQHQWHORU VLVWHPDWLFH RVFLODWRULL VH]RQDOLWDWH FLFOLFLWDWHSUH]HQWDWH vQ DFHVWFDSLWRO VHED]HD] vQ VSHFLDOSHHYDOX ULGHQDWXU VWDWLVWLF LQGLFLPHGLL QFDSLWROHOH XUP WRDUH YRP SUH]HQWD PHWRGH PDL UDILQDWH FDUH GHL PDL ELQH IXQGDPHQWDWH QXFRQGXFvQPRGDXWRPDWODUH]XOWDWHPXOWPDLSUHFLVH $PSXWHDGHDVHPHQHDDG XJDF WRDWHDFHVWHPHWRGHUH LQFHHDFHHVWHHVHQ LDOUHSHWDELOGLQPDQLIHVW ULOHFRQVWDWDWHvQWUHFXW

    %,%/,2*5$),(

    %R[*(3-HQNLQV*07LPH6HULHV$QDO\VLV)RUHFDVWLQJDQG&RQWURO+ROGHQ'D\6DQ)UDQFLVFR

    &XWKEHUWVRQ.+DOO6$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV7HFKQLTXHV:KUHDWRQV/WG )RPE\7%5KRGHV*$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-$,*UHVV/RQGRQ *UDQJHU&:-6SHFWUDO$QDO\VLVRI(FRQRPLF7LPH6HULHV3ULQFHWRQ8QLY3UHVV1