Paloma Esteve - PhD Thesis

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  • Departamento de Economa y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias

    Escuela Tcnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrnomos

    Universidad Politcnica de Madrid

    Water scarcity and climate change impact and

    vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean

    river basins

    Tesis doctoral

    Paloma Esteve Bengoechea Ingeniero Agrnomo


    Consuelo Varela Ortega Dr. Ingeniero Agrnomo (Universidad Politcnica de Madrid)

    Thomas E. Downing Dr. Geografa (Clark University)

    Madrid, 2013

  • Tribunal nombrado por el Sr. Rector Magfco. de la Universidad Politcnica de Madrid, el da de . de 201

    Presidente: Vocal: Vocal: Vocal: Secretario: Suplente: Suplente:

    Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el da de . de 201 en la E.T.S.I./Facultad .

    Calificacin .



  • A mi familia

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    This doctoral thesis has developed over five years of hard, challenging work it has tested my

    maturity and has taken me through some difficult times. Undoubtedly, this could not have

    been completed without the great support of many people who have been involved at various

    stages, and who have offered me their support throughout the completion of this thesis.

    I want to express my immense gratitude to the directors of this thesis, without whom this

    work would have been far more difficult, if not impossible. To start, I want to thank Professor

    Consuelo Varela Ortega who coaxed me into the world of research. Consuelo has been my

    professor, director of my undergraduate research and more recently the director of this thesis.

    Consuelo graciously offered me the opportunity to be part of her team and work on projects

    that aroused my interests in the complicated world of water, its management and impacts. Her

    help has been much more than just academic, she has offered me her friendship and has

    helped me understand and learn from my weaknesses, whilst developing my strengths. She

    has always had the words to motivate and direct me when Ive been lost.

    I am very grateful to my co-director, Tom Downing, who opened the doors of his house and

    team to me. The time in Oxford was an important turning point in the development of this

    research. To him I will always be grateful for offering a new perspective on the issues of water

    and adaptation to climate change, and for inspiring the selection of methods to provide a

    social perspective to climate change.

    I would further like to thank the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP) in Oxford and

    the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Boston for allowing me to research at their

    centres. These periods were fundamental in the development of the models and applied

    approaches of this research. I received unquestioning support from both my co-director Tom

    Downing (GCAP) and David Purkey (SEI), who supervised my research stays at Oxford and

    Boston. Also, I would like to offer my thanks to the teams in Oxford and Boston, especially

    Brian Joyce of SEI-Boston, who helped me in the development of the application WEAP in the

    middle Guadiana, and Eric Kemp- Benedict and Jack Sieber. My time in the UK and USA were

    extremely important for this research and provided me unforgettable personal experiences.

    In addition, I have been fortunate to have the support of the European research projects

    SCENES, MEDIATION and MEDPRO. They have supported me not just financially, but have been

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    sources of understanding and inspiration and have consistently exposed me to novel methods

    of research. These projects have given me the opportunity to work with teams from across the

    world and researchers of the highest level who have contributed importantly to this

    investigation through intense and valuable discussions and work sessions. From the SCENES

    project I would like to especially highlight Professor Kasper Kok (University of Wageningen,

    Netherlands) for his contributions towards scenario development. I must also mention the

    teams at the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB, Italy) and the Middle East

    Technical University (METU, Turkey), directed by Dr. Nicola Lamaddalena and Professor Erol

    Cakmak respectively, with whom I learned a great deal about water and agriculture in the


    From the MEDIATION project I want to especially highlight the help of Dr Rob Swart (Alterra,

    Netherlands) the coordinator of the project, Dr Sukaina Bharwani (SEI-Oxford, UK) for her

    contribution in methodological aspects and social approaches, Dr Paul Watkiss (collaborator at

    SEI-Oxford, UK) for his valuable comments on climate change adaptation economic analysis, Dr

    Jochen Hinkel (PIK, Germany), for his contribution to the debate on vulnerability and to

    Doctors Tim Carter and Stephan Fronzek (SYKE, Finland) for their contribution to climate

    change scenarios.

    From the MEDPRO project I want to thank the support of Dr Rym Ayadi (CEPS, Belgium)

    coordinator of the project, and to Dr Francesco Bosello (FEEM, Italy) for his contribution to the

    analysis of the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture.

    My research has consistently received absolute support from the Universidad Politcnica de

    Madrid, from the financial support that allowed me to complete this thesis, or the two

    scholarships that permitted me to carry out my stays in the USA and UK. Also, I must thank the

    Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, from the School of Agricultural

    Engineering (UPM), and CEIGRAM (Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and

    Environmental Risks) who have supported and contributed to my training and development in

    their efforts to support the careers of young researchers. I especially want to acknowledge the

    support of their respective directors, Professor Isabel Bardaj and Professor Alberto Garrido. I

    further want to highlight the support of the Professors of the Department of Agricultural

    Economics and CEIGRAM, especially Eva Iglesias and Ana Iglesias, who both contributed to my

    education and have provided interesting opinions and suggestions.

    In the development of this research and specifically a number of tools within it, the

    contribution of the stakeholders of the middle Guadiana has been fundamental. I would

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    specifically like to acknowledge the support of Jos ngel Rodrguez Cabello, the head of the

    Planning Office in the Guadiana River Basin Authority, and to Jos Ramn Picatoste and his

    team in the Spanish Office for Climate Change. I would also like to give my thanks for the

    support I received from the irrigation communities of Montijo and Zujar, and, especially,

    Tomas Directas del Guadiana and his secretary Blas Benito de Motta, who always gave me a

    warm welcome on my many visits to Badajoz. Thanks also to the Department of Agriculture,

    Rural Development, Environment and Energy of Extremadura, to ADENEX (Association for the

    Defence of Nature in Extremadura) and WWF Spain, especially Alberto Fernndez Lop who has

    worked very actively in all the consultations and participatory processes carried out. Also, I

    would like to thank a number of experts who participated in various consultations, in addition

    to the previously mentioned Alberto Garrido and Ana Iglesias, Professor Carlos Hernndez

    Daz- Ambrona, of the Universidad Politcnica de Madrid, Professor Lucia de Stefano, of the

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid, and finally to Nuria Hernndez Mora from Fundacin

    Nueva Cultura del Agua. I want to thank very especially Professor Ramn Llamas, who

    introduced me, in the frame of the NEWATER project, to the issues of water management in

    the Guadiana basin.

    An extremely rewarding part of this research has been the development of the case study in

    Jordan. I was very fortunate to perform field work, funded by the MEDPRO project, in the

    Jordan Valley. This work would not have been possible without the support of Professors

    Muhammad Shatanawi and Khaldoun Shatanawi, of the University of Jordan, and of Johannes

    Stork and Nour Habjoka, of the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and

    advisors from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan for the development of the

    National Plan for Water.

    Throughout my years at the university and during the development of this research, there

    have been two people with whom I have shared both academic and personal concerns,

    successes, failures and especially many memorable moments that have made this work far

    easier. Irene Blanco and Gema Carmona have been my colleagues, friends and perfect

    exemplars. Seeing the development of their research and qualities has taught me a lot, and has

    helped me to cope with the challenge that has been this research.

    I would also like to thank the support of a number of people during specific tasks within this

    work, Laura Barrios (CSIC), that advised me in the use of statistics and econometric techniques,

    and Jeremy Schlickenrieder who helped me through editing work.

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    During my time at the Department of Economics and Social Sciences at the School of

    Agricultural Engineering (UPM) and in CEIGRAM, I have shared fantastic moments with other

    PhD students and research assistants. Among