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Pengkomersilan Industri Padi Malaysia: Bersediakah Kita dari Perspektif Dunia, Asia dan Negara
Sarena Che Omar
Tarikh: 10.9.2019
Lokasi: TH Hotel
Konvensyen Padi Kebangsaan 2019
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2. Topik
Khazanah Research Institute (KRI)
1. Pengenalan
• Ditubuhkan 2014• Isu-isu semasa dan jangka panjang negara• Memberi cadangan/rekomendasi polisi
Perumahan, perdagangan antarabangsa, pengangguran, kemiskinan,digital teknologi, kesihatan, pemakanan dan pertanian.
Food & Agriculture
Food Security Crop Mix Paddy & Rice
Prof Jomo K Sundaram Prof Fatimah Arshad Dr Sarena Che Omar
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“Commercial” penjualan produk untuk mendapat
keuntungan
Definisi
Pengkomersialan Industri PadiAktiviti pengeluaran dan pemprosesan yang produktif
dan menguntungkan kesemua pihak di seluruhrantaian pengeluaran padi beras negara
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Industri Padi -Definisi JaminanKeselamatan
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Sejarah Industri Kita
Our Policies on Paddy and Rice goes way back
1950s 2020
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Agricultural policies & rice SSL
• Production-centric:
• Polisi bertemakan pengeluaran dan SSL
• Strategi meningkatkan pengeluaran & hasil (yield) at all costs
• Achievement:
• Tahap Sara Diri (SSL) 60 – 80% sejak2000
• At all costs – masih pengimport beras
Production-centric policies
SSL targets (70-100% SSL)
Production(volume & yield)
• Moving forward:
• Kekal focus peningkatan Tahap Sara Diri - net exporter?
• Atau memandang cara lain untukmengukur pencapaian industri
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Jaminan Makanan - multidimensi
Food Security“people, at all times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
FAO, World Summit 1996
2. AksesFizikal
Ekonomi
4. KelestarianPenggunaan sumber semula jadi
Daya tahan ubah cuaca
1. KetersediaanPengeluaran,
Tahap Sara DiriImport
5. StabilitiBekalan & harga
Tindak balas kecemasan
3. PenggunaanKeselamatan & kualiti
Nutritisi
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Jaminan Makanan
Economic Access
Utilisation Nutrition
Langkawi
Availability
Physical Access
- Lebih dari SSL
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181.3
159.8
135.0
116.7
103.5
87.977.9
69.0
54.8
11.55.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
Ban
gla
des
h
Vie
t N
am
Ind
on
esia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Th
ailan
d
Mala
ysia
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pan
Pakis
tan
Eu
rop
ean
Un
ion
200.0 kg/person
MA
LA
YS
IAWorld, 54.6
Malaysia
Figure 1: Pemakanan Nasi per kapita, mengikut negara, 2016
80- 88 kg/person
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026, figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report
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Dari Segi Kalori …Figure 2: Perubahan Peratus Punca Kalori, 1961 – 2013
Source: Household Expenditure Survey, DOS (2016), figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Milk
Wheat & Products
Meat
Fish & Seafood
RICE
Eggs
Fruits Vegetables
(%)
Pengurangan % kalori dari nasi disebabkan diversifikasi diet
Jaminan makan bukan sahaja nasi, malah pada makanan lain
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Dari Segi Isi Rumah:
22
25
43
43
48
59
84
97
104
158
0
40
80
12
0
16
0
Oils & fats
Sugar, confectionery
n.e.c
Coffee, tea, beverages
Rice
Fruits
Milk, cheese & eggs
Vegetables
Bread & cereals
Meat
Fish & seafood
RICE
RM
16
0
Figure 3: Perbelanjaan Bulanan Isi Rumah, 2016
RM44 sebulan(6% daripada RM726)
Source: Household Expenditure Survey DOS (2016), figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
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Isi Rumah & WarganegaraFigure 4: Peratus perbelanjan bulanandaripada F&B mengikut pendapatan, 2016
Figure 5: Peratus perbelanjaan bulanan isirumah, mengikut warganeraga, 2016
12.8
15.7
9.2
5.20.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Un
der
RM
1,9
99
RM
2,0
00 -
RM
2,9
99
RM
3,0
00 -
RM
3,9
99
RM
4,0
00 -
RM
4,9
99
RM
5,0
00 -
RM
5,9
99
RM
6,0
00 -
RM
6,9
99
RM
7,0
00 -
RM
7,9
99
RM
8,0
00 -
RM
8,9
99
RM
9,0
00 -
RM
9,9
99
RM
10
,000
- R
M1
4,9
99
Ove
r R
M15
,00
0
18.0 %Bread and other cereals
RICE
9.6
5.8
8.3
5.9 5.75.3
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Non−
Mala
ysia
n Citiz
ens
Oth
ers
Bum
ipute
ra
India
ns
Chin
ese
12.0 %
Average 6.1% (RM44)
NO
N-M
AL
AY
SIA
N
CIT
IZE
NS
CITIZENS
(RM60)
(RM43)
(RM53)
(RM44) (RM40)(RM40)
Pendapatan rendah, % perbelanjaan
ke atas nasi adalah lebih tinggi
Bukan warganegara belanja paling
tinggi
Source: Household Expenditure Survey DOS (2016), figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
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Kesimpulannya …
Jaminan Makanan ≠ 100% Tahap Sara Diri
Jaminan Makanan => • 60-80% pengeluaran domestik• Padi berkualiti tinggi• Komersil ++ pendapatan
rantaian bekalan padi & beras
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Jaminan Makanan - multidimensiFood Security
“people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
FAO, World Summit 1996
PenggunaanKeselamatan & kualiti
Nutritisi
StabilitiBekalan & harga
Tindak balas kecemasan
KelestarianPenggunaan sumber semula jadi
Daya tahan ubah cuaca
KetersediaanPengeluaran
Import
= PENGKOMERSILAN =
AksesFizikal
Ekonomi
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Industri Padi -Dunia & Asia Tenggara
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Dunia
0 5 10 15
1. India
2. Thailand
3. Viet Nam
4. United States ofAmerica
5. Pakistan
0 50 100 150 200 250
1. China
2. India
3. Indonesia
4. Bangladesh
5. Viet Nam
#23 Malaysia 2.7 mMT #80 Malaysia 1000 MT
Source: FAOSTAT
Komersilan tidak bermakna perlu bertanding dengan mereka dari segi
jumlah pengeluaran & jumlah eksport.
Figure 6: Pengeluaran Padi (mMT), 2017 Figure 7: Eksport Padi (mMT), 2017
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Regional Situation
Malaysia ketinggalan, tetapi > Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines
Figure 8: Hasil padi 1986 – 2017 (MT/Ha)
Source: FAOSTAT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
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77
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19
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99
20
01
20
03
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05
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07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
MT/Ha
Australia
U. States
Korea
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
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Farming – Cost of ProductionFigure 9: Cost of production in key rice growing areas in seven countries, 2014 (USD/Ha)
Sources: Perangkaan MADA (2014), Bordey, Moya et al (2016)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Zhejiang,China
West Java,Indonesia
MADA,MALAYSIA…
Nueva Ecija,Philippines
MADA,MALAYSIA…
SuphanBuri,Thailand
Can Tho,Vietnam
Tamil Nadu,India
Total cost
Net profit
USD/Ha
1,200Net profit
944
1,036
1,102
1,151
1,489
1,599
2,171
2,530
MADA, Malaysia(with subsidies*)
MADA, Malaysia(without subsidies*)
3,000
USD/Ha
(206)
(1,076)
(604)
(884)
(728)
(850)
(436)
(724)
Cost of Production
Exporting
Countries
Importing
Countries
Regionally, Malaysia’s paddy cultivation is competitive
(with subsidies)
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Industri Padi -Malaysia
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Industri Pertanian: Petani
Penurunan peratus pekerja bukanlah sesuatu yang buruk, sebab
produktiviti/petani meningkat. Ia perlu terus meningkat
Source: Labour Force Survey Time Series Statistics, DOS (2018), figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
Figure 10: Employed persons in agri-related industry, 1982 – 2017 (% total employment)
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Pendapatan Isi RumahFigure 11: Mean monthly income for Malaysian households and MADA farmers, 2016
2,527 2,848
6,502
16,088
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
MADA Bottom 40% Middle 40% Top 20%
RM
0
Sources: Household Income Survey, DOS (2016) and MADA Annual report (2016). Figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
Di Malaysia, petani di B40.
Perlu lihat dari segi kualiti hidup dan jurang perbezaan
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Pendapatan Isi Rumah PetaniFigure 12: Ilustrasi pendapatan isi rumah petani
Source: Figure from “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
Kualiti& Kuantiti
Kos
ROI = (Keuntungan Bersih)Kos Pengeluaran
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Pertanian Kini Lokasi-SpesifikFigure 13: Return on Investment (ROI) bagi 27 PPKs di MADA, Musim 1, 2016
MADA Headquarters
Note: Green rows are the top performers
Source: CSS data (2016) from MADA, visualization by
KRI
ROI Tinggi
ROI Rendah
S. Limau DalamSimpang EmpatGuar ChempedakSanglang
TunjangTiti Hj IdrisKubang SepatSimpang E. Kangkong
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Pengkomersilan Industri
Luas Kawasan/petani
Galak petani muda(<50 tahun)
+ Kualiti & kuantiti padi(Hybrid/varieti, MyGap, Remote
Sensing)
Kerjasamadiseluruh rantaianpengeluaran padi
Contract Farming
Blockchain Lokasi-spesifikproblem solving
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Contract Farming
Source: “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
Pengilang/Pengusaha Makanan
Input Players Petani
Petani – pengeluaran produk kualiti,Pembeli – shared risk, extension
Petani – akses input sesuai, berkualiti, harga berpatutan
Input/servis – shared risk, extension
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Blockchain Untuk Industri Padi
Source: ‘The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia’ KRI report.
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Pengkomersilan Industri Padi- setiap dimensi jaminan makanan- berfokuskan kualiti (& kuantiti) - seluruh rantaian makanan
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TERIMA KASIH
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Apakah kedudukan industri padi di Malaysia jika dibandingkan dengan negara lain?
Benarkah persepi bahawa penanaman padi merugikan dan petani wajar beralih kepada
aktiviti ekonomi yang lain? Ataupun pada pandangan yang berbeza: tidak kira status apa
sekali pun, kita mesti tetap menanam padi untuk mencapai status jaminan makanan negara,
terutamanya makanan ruji kita.
Pembentangan ini akan cuba mengupas persoalan diatas dengan melihat kepada
perbandingan kos dan hasil pengeluaran padi dengan negara-negara lain, disusuli
perbandingan nisbah kos pengeluaran kepada pendapatan bersih antara PPK di kawasan
MADA. Menerusi dapatan ini, ketersediaan industri padi negara untuk mencapai tahap
komersialan yang tinggi dan inisiatif untuk meningkatkan pendapatan petani akan
dibincangkan. Strategi-strategi termasuk penggunaan teknologi precision farming dan
Blockchain, myGAP, model penanaman kontrak dan perubahan pemikiran polisi dan persepsi
masyrakat yang berpusat kepada petani-pengguna (farmer-consumer centric) kepada yang
berpusat kepada seluruh rantaian bekalan (supply chain centric) akan turut dibincangkan.
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2016 Paddy and Rice Supply Chain
45,422 MT export
TRADE
INPUT PRODUCTION MILLING CONSUMPTIONWHOLESALE
& RETAIL
821,869 MT import
• 9 seed suppliers
• 68,000 MT of seeds
• ~ 200,000 farmers
• 2.7m MT paddy
• 688,770Ha planted area
• ~ 200 millers
• 1.8m MT rice
• ~1,600 wholesalers
• ~57,000 retailers
• 31m consumers
• 2.7m MT rice consumed
Industry Overview
Sources: Figure by Khazanah Research Institute, data from various sources cited in ‘The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia’
KRI Rice Report
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Why is data important in agri-food?
For researchers, policy makers and private players• Researchers – more accurate research findings• Government – to allocate resources (such as subsidy fund) and manage
procurement (such as fertilizer for farmers) more efficiently• Private sector –response to market more effectively
For Consumers - Food safety, traceability & quality• Ensure safety and quality of food• Allow for effective and efficient intervention should any issue arises such
as disease outbreak• Prevent fraud and mislabeling of food
Premium products• Incentivising farmers to produce premium products including MyGAP and
MyOrganic products• Prevent fraud and mislabeling• Facilitate the exportation of premium products
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What is Blockchain?
• “Digital ledger of economic transactions that can be programmed to record not justfinancial transactions but virtually everything of value” – Don & Alex Tapscott
• Three salient features:
1. Distributed – Blockchain works as a shared digital ledger, eliminating the need to reconcile disparate ledgers
2. Permissioned – Each member of the network has access rights and the information is shared on a need-to-know basis
3. Secure – Adheres to a rule that does not allow data to be altered without the consensus of all network members
Figure 4: Blockchain: the combination of advances in computer science
Source: ‘The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia’ KRI report.
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How does Blockchain work?
• Blockchain is a chain of blocks consisting of multiple non-trusting parties
• A block is created when a transaction is initiated between parties
• Each block contains data, its own hash and the hash of the previous block
• Changing something inside the block causes the hash to change
Source: ‘The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia’ KRI report.
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How does Blockchain work? (cont.)
• Blockchain does not allow data to be altered without the consensus of allnetwork members
• Since every block contains the hash of the previous block, any tampering of the data would make the whole chain invalid
• Any node in the network owns a full copy of the Blockchain that isautomatically reconciled every time a transaction is conducted
• Thus, Blockchain database is not stored in a single location – data are more transparent and less vulnerable to hacking
Source: ‘The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia’ KRI report.
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Blockchain – what to consider?
• Cost (initial capital & operating cost)
• Who to fund?
• Who to operate?
• Managing various stakeholders’ interests
• Initial stage of development
• Dispute resolution
• Data privacy
• Determining public and private data
• Protection of private data
• Policy and regulatory risks
• Policy and regulatory related to Blockchain is in its infancy around the world
• Increased responsibility on the user
• Important to enter the correct data as corrections are hard to make
• High energy consumption
Further reference:
Published by FAO and International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 2019, Bangkok
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Issue: Segment Favoritism
Price floor & price ceiling overtime, tightened the midstream segment
Food SecurityFarmer’s Income BERNAS
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Midstream – Squeezed Segment“The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report
Source: Maklumat Perangkaan Industri Padi dan Beras 2016, MOA, figure “The Status of the Paddy and Rice Industry” KRI report.
Observations
• Segment Favoritism Focus on farmers and consumers
• Squeezed Middle Players Measures introduced meant that the profit-margin gets 'squeezed’
• Survival: Desperate Measures Diversify, malpractices or close shop
• Perpetuated distrust especially between farmers and millers. Worse when the RM1,200 GMP was standardised across States in 2014.
Figure 19: Selling prices for paddy according to states, 2013 and 2014 (RM/MT)
Recommendations
• Encourage the growth of each segment of the supply chain
• Contract farming and Blockchain may help improve trust and knowledge exchange between the farmers and millers.
