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Gilberto Gallo in 2007

Gilberto Gallopn

Workshop Formal Approache to VulnerabilityPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

September 13-14, 2007, Potsdam

LINKAGES BETWEENLINKAGES BETWEENVULNERABILITY, RESILIENCE,VULNERABILITY, RESILIENCE,

AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY


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Generic systemic approach(Specifiable for different system types -social, ecological,

socio-ecological)

+

Diagnostic questions


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The SocioThe Socio--ecological Systemecological System A system that includes societal (human)

and ecological (biophysical) subsistems inmutual interaction.\

From local (household + surroundings)

to

Global (the Earth System)


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VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY The propensity of a system to suffer

significant transformations as aconsequence of its interaction with

external or internal processes or events

(perturbations)

Significant transformation: a structural change ofthe system or, at least, relatively permanent and

profound


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issues at this entry level:issues at this entry level:

Is V necessarily negative? (or, is the

potential transformation always for the

worse?) (positive vulnerability). V as aparticular case of Responsiveness to

stimuli ?

Is the perturbation, stress, shock

necessarily external?



Exogenous/endogenous:Exogenous/endogenous: Characterization of events (perturbations,

etc) as external or internal is scale-dependent

A hurricane is external to the community,but internal to the Earth System; a civil war

is external to the household, but internal to

the country


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exposure, sensitivity, andexposure, sensitivity, andcapacity of responsecapacity of response

CENTRAL COMPONENTSCENTRAL COMPONENTSOF VULNERABILITY:OF VULNERABILITY:


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SENSITIVITYSENSITIVITY

transformation

perturbation

Essentially,

Inherent, in the absence of response

Attribute of the system, pre-existent the

perturbation


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CAPACITY OF RESPONSECAPACITY OF RESPONSE Ability of the system to:

Adjust to or resist the perturbation Moderate potential damage

Take advantage of opportunities

Cope with the consequences of the

transformations that do occur

Attribute of the system, pre-existing the perturbation


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EXPOSUREEXPOSURE Degree, duration and/or extension in

which the system is in contact with, or

subject to, the perturbation

Attribute of the relation between the system and the

perturbation


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External

processes


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Internal

processes

SYSTEM

Externalprocesses

Normal exchanges

between the system

and its environment

BEFO

RE

AFTER


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perturbation/threat

vulnerability,

exposure

TRANSFORMATION =TRANSFORMATION =

function of:function of:


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Policy differentiationPolicy differentiation

Different types of policies are appropriated

for different aspects of the problematicsituation


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Internal

processes

SYSTEM

External

threat

Shielding

Relocation

Adaptation

Restoration

Compensation

MitigationInmunization

Assets, reserves

Anticipation

PreventionCapacity building


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RESILIENCERESILIENCE

Originally referred to changes of the state of the

system within its state space (resilience wasrelated to the size and depth of the domain ofattraction (dynamic attractor):

The amount of change a system canundergo and still remain within the

same domain of attraction (not in thesame state; this would be stability=engineeringresilience)


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x1

x2

initial state

current state

trajectory


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Attractor A

Attractor C

Attractor B

X 2

X 1


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Multistable systems

Often it is assumed that the currentdomain is the good one and thus a flip to

another domain is a collapse. But this is

not necessarily so.

Take-off theories of development?


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Later onLater on

Resilience was broadened to more

structural changes: in the state space itself


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More recentlyMore recently

extended to recovery and reorganization

after deep transformations, the capacity toadapt to changes and generate novelty

(the adaptive cycle metaphor).

Adaptive cycle >> resilience


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Connectedness

Reorganizatio

n

Conservation

Exploitatio

n

Releas

e


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Resilience is clearly related to the

Capacity of Response component ofvulnerability

But

Resilience seems to be a subset of

Capacity of Response at least for social

systems


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IPCCIPCC

Adaptive Capacity: the ability of a

system to adjust to climate change, tomoderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to cope

with the consequences

In general, a systems ability to dealwith exposure or risk

IPCCIPCC


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IPCCIPCC

Mitigation: actions upon origin andevolution of perturbationconsists of activities that aim to reduce GHG emissions directly orindirectly (e.g., by changing behavioural patterns, or by developingand diffusing relevant technologies), by capturing GHGs before theyare emitted to the atmosphere or sequestering GHGs already in theatmosphere by enhancing their sinks.

Adaptation: actions upon system

adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual orexpected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm orexploit beneficial opportunities


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What is left outWhat is left out

AC in biological definition contains:

To cope with environmental

contingencies+

To improve its condition in relation toits environment (even if theenvironment does not change)

I


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Common climate-oriented definitions

of adaptive capacity seem to bereduced versions of a more general

concept

Is this important for Global Changeresearch? Probably yes

Issue:Issue:


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A system with more adaptive capacityA system with more adaptive capacity

will tend to be less vulnerablewill tend to be less vulnerable

Is Adaptive Capacity the flip side ofvulnerability?

Is Adaptive Capacity the same as theCapacity of Response component of

vulnerability?

ButBut


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Is Resilience the same as adaptive

capacity?

Adaptive capacity seems to be abroader concept than resilience

(unless resilience is stretched beyondits original meaning)


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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION


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CONCLUSION:CONCLUSION:

Vulnerability, Resilience, and

Adaptive Capacity are related in non-trivial ways. If care is not used, the

field of human dimensions researchcan become epistemologically very

messy


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ESILIENCER

DAPTIVE

CAPACITYA

VULN

ERABILITY

Sensitivity

Capacity

of response

Exposure

R CR V

R ACAC CR AC V

ifAC CR AC V

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS


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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

There is considerable confusion, overlap

and contraditions in the use of theconcepts of V, R, AC

Epistemologically, V, R, A are related in

non-trivial ways

Efforts should be made to develop


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Efforts should be made to develop

clear (and hopefully, shared)specifications of the concepts in the

abstract, ecological, and socialsenses, that are mutually compatible

This can be critical for the interactions

between social and natural sciences

in the study of the coupled socio-

ecological systems

Set of diagnostic questions may helpSet of diagnostic questions may help


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What is meant by harm or transformation (structuralchange, shifting domains of attraction, moving awayfrom equilibrium states or trajectories)?

Is positive vulnerability a useful notion?

Does vulnerability apply to internal perturbations?

Is vulnerability a property of the system or of therelationship between the system and the perturbation?

Is negative (perverse) resilience a suitable concept?

Does adaptation include improvements of the systemin a non-changing environment?

Is adaptive capacity the same as capacity ofresponse?

Is resilience the same as adaptive capacity?

Line of research on Global ChangeLine of research on Global Change


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Line of research on Global ChangeLine of research on Global Change

Search for a general theory of change and

transformation of SESs

Requires ID (TD?) research with theparticipation of social and natural

scientists


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