PK-Guía sobre la lectura de manos

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    Gua increblemente larga sobre la lectura de manos. Parte I.

    Este artculo es una traduccin de un mensaje de Pokey enestehilo (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1 ) de los foros de 2+2. Su ttulo original es An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading y fue publicado el 2 de Enero de 2007.

    La lectura de manos es el aspecto ms importante y, al mismo tiempo, ms difcil al que un jugadorde pquer se enfrenta. Algunos de los mejores jugadores del mundo desconocen muchos (o todos)de los otros principios del pquer, sin embargo, tienen habilidades sobrehumanas leyendo manos yhacen montaas de dinero a pesar de sus carencias. Otros jugadores son realmente buenos entodos los fundamentos pero fallan en la lectura de manos y, para su desdicha, tienen queconformarse con luchar para ser unos ganadores consistentes en NL50.

    Por desgracia no hay una frmula mgica para la lectura de manos; no es de extraar, puesto quetus rivales trabajan duro para evitar que sepas las cartas que llevan. Sin embargo, aunque en sugran mayora se trate de un arte, los principios bsicos de la lectura de manos se puedensistematizar. Tras reflexionar sobre ello, acab escribiendo estos Cinco Mandamientos de la Lectura

    de Manos para que la gente se inicie en este arte (tena diez, pero una de las tablas se rompicuando mont en clera al ver que antes que los conceptos y la belleza del juego, se idolatraba al vilmetal en los foros, adems de que solo se discuten chorradas y cada vez menos aspectos tcnicos;lo siento, culpad al moderador).

    1. Conoce sus nmerosImagina que un rival que solo ha visto tiene un VPIP del 30%; Qu significa realmente ese 30%?Sabemos que es poco selectivo, pero conoces exactamente qu rango de manos son el 30% detodas las posibles? A continuacin listo las probabilidades de recibir un conjunto de manos antes delflop: (Probabilidad total= P.T.)

    Super-premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. P.T: 2.6%.

    Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. P.T: 5.9%.Cualquier pareja de mano: AA-22. P.T: 5.9%.Dos broadway cualesquiera: dos cartas > T, incl. parejas. P.T: 14.3%.Un as con otra carta cualquiera del mismo palo: A2s-AKs. P.T:3.6%.Un as con otra carta cualquiera de distinto palo: A2o-AKo. P.T:10.9%.Conectores del mismo palo: JTs-54s. P.T: 2.1%.Que contengan algn as: A2o+, A2s+, AA. P.T:14.9%.Dos cualesquiera del mismo palo: literalmente. P.T:23.5%.Dos conectores cualesquiera: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. P.T:14.5%.

    Para dar una referencia MUY aproximada sobre la que se pueden traducir los porcentajes

    anteriormente vistos, enumero unos posibles rangos de ejemplo:5% = "parejas 77+, AK, AQs" o "parejas 99+, AK, AQ."10% = "parejas 66+, AK, AQ, cualquier as con otra carta del mismo palo, KQs, QJs"15% = "cualquier pareja, AK, AQ, KQ, conectores del mismo palo 54+, cualquier as con otra carta delmismo palo"20% = "cualquier pareja, dos broadway cualesquiera, cualquier as con otra carta del mismo palo"25% = "cualquier pareja, dos broadway cualesquiera del mismo palo, cualquier as, conectores delmismo palo 54s+, KQo"30% = "cualquier pareja, cualquier as, cualquier rey con otra carta del mismo palo, dos broadwaycualesquiera del mismo palo, conectores del mismo palo 54s+, KTo+, QJo" o "cualquier pareja,cualquier as, cualquier rey con otra carta del mismo palo, dos broadway cualesquiera"

    40% = "cualquier pareja, cualquier as, cualquier rey, dos broadway cualesquiera, cualesquieraconectores del mismo palo 32s+"50% = "cualquier pareja, dos cartas cualesquiera del mismo palo, cualquier as, dos broadwaycualesquiera, K5o+"

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1
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    Como siempre, recuerda usar el rango que afecta al movimiento del jugador: un jugador que sea65/10, ser menos selectivo que el rango del 50% cuando vea una apuesta antes del flop, perotendr un rango bastante selectivo si sube. Tambin es preciso sealar que algunos jugadores queson poco selectivos y pasivos, subirn con las segundas mejores manos como 88-JJ, AJ, KQ, y 54s-JTs, pero no con las mejores como QQ+, AK y AQ (aquellas que jugarn despacio para ocultar susmanos). Vigila a estos jugadores en el showdown para ver cmo juegan sus manos grandes.

    La agresividad despus del flop tambin nos dice mucho acerca de un jugador. Cuando un rival con

    una AF media de 8 sube antes del flop y pasa hasta ti, sospecha una trampa: normalmente llevaruna mano fuerte y tiene la intencin de pasar en falso. Si se da la misma situacin frente a unoponente con una AF de 1'3, es mucho ms probable que no haya ligado y abandone la mano.Cuando la misma jugada la realiza un jugador como una AF de 0'4, no obtienes informacin de sumovimiento (pasar es lo que hace casi siempre este tipo de rivales). Debes separar mentalmente alos jugadores en tres grupos principales: agresividad alta, agresividad media y agresividad baja. Escrucial aprender a adaptar tu juego a cada rival dependiendo en qu grupo lo clasifiques. Teme lopeor cuando un oponente acta de manera distinta de la que se le supone: el jugador pasivodespus del flop que apuesta y sube, casi siempre lleva una gran jugada, pudiendo abandonar sinpensrtelo. El ultramaniaco que pasa y ve durante dos calles, tambin lleva una gran mano y estesperando sacarte todo lo que pueda. No caigas en su trampa. Todo esto nos conduce al segundomandamiento:

    2. Conoce a tu enemigoUn leopardo nunca cambia sus manchas. Este refrn se puede aplicar perfectamente amicrolmites. Combinada, la trinidad del HUD (VPIP, PFR y AF media) nos dice mucho acerca de unjugador. Los jugadores poco selectivos juegan seleccionando poco sus manos; los jugadoresselectivos juegan seleccionando cuidadosamente sus manos. Los jugadores agresivos jueganagresivamente y los pasivos pasivamente. Clasifica a tus oponentes dependiendo de tres factoresindependientes:

    Seleccin de manos antes del flop: un jugador poco selectivo antes del flop tiene un VPIP porencima del 40% (este porcentaje es una aproximacin, pero se ve por dnde van los tiros). Estos

    rivales pueden llevar cualquier cosa antes del flop y, cualquier mano que ests dispuesto a jugar, vaa superar a la de su rango. Sin embargo, estate atento despus del flop, puesto que tu enemigo hapodido ligar en cualquier flop que aparezca. Preprate para jugar con cuidado cuando no tengas unagran mano. Esto no quiere decir que debieras simplemente pasar y ver; por contra, espera ir pordelante y apostar con tus manos hechas, pero mantn las apuestas pequeas e intenta controlar eltamao del bote. Alternativamente sube poco y mucho antes del flop mientras tu mano domine alrango de tu oponente. Su error es jugar demasiadas manos, expltalo castigndole antes del flopsiempre que vayas por delante.

    Por el contrario, un jugador selectivo tiene un VPIP por debajo del 20%. Estos rivales no participanen una mano a no ser que tengan algo que merezca la pena. No van a cometer grandes erroresantes del flop, y la nica forma de obtener ventaja de sus caractersticas es robando sus ciegas sin

    piedad (aunque tendrs que abandonar inmediatamente si te pillan robando y no llevas una manoaceptable).

    Agresividad antes del flop: un jugador se considera pasivo antes del flop si tiene un PFR pordebajo de una cuarta parte de su VPIP. Esto quiere decir que es una escala variable: mientras un10% es pasivo para un jugador de un VPIP del 55%, es agresivo para uno con un VPIP del 15%. Porcontra, un jugador se considera agresivo antes del flop si tiene un PFR por encima de la mitad de suVPIP. Cuando intentes averiguar la mano que lleva un jugador antes del flop, deberas usar su VPIPy PFR para llegar a una conclusin. Imagina que un rival tiene un VPIP del 40% y un PFR del 20% ysimplemente ve delante de ti. Qu tipo de manos esperas que lleve? Bien, sabemos que estdispuesto a jugar el 40% de sus manos, el rango de los analizados anteriormente se correspondecon "cualquier pareja, cualquier as, cualquier rey, dos broadway cualesquiera, cualesquiera

    conectores del mismo palo 32s+". Pero, podemos afinar su rango algo ms: sabemos que con el20% de esas manos el villano hubiera subido, y no lo ha hecho. Si asumimos que sube con el 20%de sus mejores manos, el rango de este jugador para subir puede ser algo como "cualquier pareja,dos broadway cualesquiera, cualquier as con otra carta del mismo palo". As que eliminamos esas

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    manos de su rango actual (igual que descartas 72o cuando una roca est en la mano, descartas QQcuando un maniaco ve). Un rango aproximado en esta situacin va a ser la diferencia del rangooriginal del 40% y las mejores 20% manos que hemos sealado, es decir, "cualquier as con otracarta de distinto palo, K9s o peor, K9o o peor, T9s o peor". Este es un rango mucho ms sencillocontra el que jugar.

    De todos modos, fjate en las manos que muestra tu oponente en el showdown; debes comprobarque la suposicin de que sube con el 20% de sus mejores manos es correcta. Si tuvieras un rival

    tricky que viera con el 10% de sus peores y mejores manos y subiera con el 20% restante, laasuncin anterior de su rango sera incorrecta, y te encontraras en problemas por una mala lectura.

    Un aspecto importante a tener en cuenta: la gente a menudo ve el VPIP alto de un jugador yconcluye que es un idiota poco selectivo. Despus, ve su subida y se queda de piedra cuandodescubre en el showdown que el idiota llevaba los cohetes. Recuerda, si te sube antes del flop un65/5, tiene aproximadamente el mismo rango de manos que un 12/5. No confundas su laxa seleccinde manos antes del flop con un rango mayor del que realmente tiene cuando sube

    Agresividad despus del flop: despus del flop comienza un nuevo juego. La gente suele cometerel error de asumir que un jugador poco selectivo antes del flop lo es tambin despus del mismo, oque uno agresivo antes del flop lo es tambin a partir de ste. Esto slo se puede descubrir mediantela observacin (y por sus estadsticas de AF). Cualquier combinacin de estilos de juego antes ydespus del flop es posible, y ninguna especialmente infrecuente. Los verdaderos TA/TA (selectivo-agresivos antes y despus del flop) y los LP/LP (calling station antes y despus del flop) son solouna forma de oponente.

    Otro tipo de jugador muy comn es el TA/LA: siempre agresivo y bastante selectivo antes del flop,este rival juega tan pocas manos que cuando encuentra algo (CUALQUIER COSA) que estdispuesto a jugar antes del flop, no puede abandonar. Se convierte en un maniaco despus del flop,basando sus ganancias en el folding equity y en su mejor rango inicial de manos. Otro tipo dejugador frecuente es el TP/TA: se transforma de una roca pasiva antes del flop a un mono agresivotras el mismo. Si no liga, estn fuera de la mano, pero si lo hacen, van a pegar en cada calle e

    intentar llegar all in al showdown. Menos comn en microlmites, pero ms frecuentes conforme sesube de nivel (y mortalmente peligrosos cuando son buenos) son los LP/TA: este tipo de jugador esun completo idiota calling station antes del flop. Normalmente tendrn nmeros entre 75/11 y 68/6.No te dejes engaar! Es un ardid. Estos oponentes se meten en tantos botes como puedan y lo msbarato que puedan, y tras el flop juegan a PQUER. Abandonarn una gran parte de las veces en elflop, gastando 1BB, pero cuando liguen, sern astutos como el diablo y slidos, slidos, slidos. Setransforman en modo agresivo, apostando increblemente fuerte confiando en que jugadores TAGdespistados les vean con poca cosa porque: Oye! Este idiota es un 72/7, mi TP3K (top pair 3rdkicker) tiene superado su rango de manos. Ellos limpian ms TAG que t y yo podamos algn dasoar, porque su imagen lleva a los TAG a volverse locos con sus buenos movimientos despus delflop. As que la regla de oro es sta: despus del flop se inicia un nuevo juego; espera que la gentejuegue un estilo diferente antes y despus del flop, e intenta averiguar rpido cul de los dos estilos

    juegan en cada situacin.

    A partir de aqu, una vez que estamos en el flop y calles posteriores, necesitamos usar la AF media yla seleccin despus del flop para decidir qu llevan los rivales, afinando nuestro rango originalbasado en su juego antes del flop. Esto nos lleva al tercer mandamiento (para el prximo da):

    En el texto original, la frase es: I had ten, but one of the tablets broke when EMC dropped it --sorry, blame the mod. El ttulo de los Cinco Mandamientos es una clara alusin a la Biblia y, comooriginalmente los mandamientos son diez, hizo un chiste sobre por qu su artculo solo tiene cinco.La traduccin literal es tena diez, pero una de las tablas se rompi cuando se le cay a EMC; EMCno s lo que significa, pero he encontrado por internet que es una banda callejera peligrosa otambin un grupo de artes marciales de entretenimiento. Como no estaba seguro, he usado la

    alusin que hace sobre la Biblia y la he adaptado como me ha pasado por el forro (de los huevos).Contina posteriormente el guio a la Biblia escribiendo los mandamientos en el ingls arcaicoempleado en el libro sagrado (thy es la segunda persona del posesivo, actualmente se utiliza you).

    http://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7269-Gu%C3%ADa-incre%C3%ADblemente-larga-sobre-la-lectura-de-manos-Parte-I

    http://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7269-Gu%C3%ADa-incre%C3%ADblemente-larga-sobre-la-lectura-de-manos-Parte-Ihttp://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7269-Gu%C3%ADa-incre%C3%ADblemente-larga-sobre-la-lectura-de-manos-Parte-Ihttp://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7269-Gu%C3%ADa-incre%C3%ADblemente-larga-sobre-la-lectura-de-manos-Parte-I
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    Gua Increblemente Larga Sobre La Lectura De Manos. Parte II.

    Este artculo es la segunda parte de la traduccin de un mensaje de Pokey en estehilode los forosde 2+2. Su ttulo original es An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading y fue publicado el 2 deEnero de 2007.

    3. Conoce la mesa

    Los flops tienen diferentes "texturas", provocando ms o menos miedo dependiendo de las cartasque t lleves y del rango de tus oponentes. Y lo que tiene mayor importancia: distintos jugadoresactan de manera diferente ante las posibles texturas que conforman las cartas sobre la mesa. Enuna mesa llena de proyectos, si un jugador agresivo y poco selectivo se limita a pasar y ver, esbastante probable que lleve la mejor jugada posible (o casi), pero si un jugador pasivo y pocoselectivo acta de la misma forma, es bastante probable que lleve... bueno, en realidad puede llevarcualquier cosa. Qu influye en la textura de una mesa? Para responder, empecemos con el flop:

    Color: los flops pueden ser "arco iris" (los tres palos de las cartas distintos), aquellos con dos cartasdel mismo palo y la otra de uno diferente o monocromos (las tres cartas de distinto palo). Cuantas

    ms cartas haya del mismo palo, mejor tendr que ser la mano con la que la mayora de rivalesestarn dispuestos a ver. Sin embargo, hay que destacar que muchos jugadores hiperagresivosestarn ms dispuestos a apostar, pasar en falso o "flotar" (ver simplemente en el f lop con laintencin de llevarse el bote en el turn) de farol o semifarol (con un proyecto) en este tipo de flops. Sieres el primero en actuar, puedes robar a menudo estos botes con una apuesta razonablementepequea (2/3 del bote); si te ven, ten cuidado con el proyecto de color!

    Ahora una de matemticas: pongamos que el flop viene con 3 picas y no tienes ninguna en tu mano.La probabilidad de que tu nico rival haya conseguido color es del 3'3% y de que tenga un proyectode color son del 15'8%. Si tienes una mano slida (por ejemplo, TPTK), NO TE ASUSTES YEMPIECES SIMPLEMENTE A VER! Apuesta de cara y protgete contra el proyecto que es 4'75veces ms probable que el color ya hecho que te superara.

    Adems, si tu oponente tiene la segunda mejor mano, ser ms propenso a pagar una apuesta enun flop monocromo que en uno donde en el turn haya cuatro picas (asumiendo que no tieneninguna). Apuesta mientras tu mano sea la mejor y haz que pague caro intentar y lograr superarte enlas siguientes calles. Ms matemticas: si en la mesa hay tres picas y tienes una en la mano, laprobabilidad de que tu rival tenga 2 picas en su mano baja hasta el 2'6%, y las de que tenga unproyecto hasta el 14'4%, as que la probabilidad de que tenga un proyecto es ahora 5'6 veces mayorque la que tenga el color hecho. Apuesta y protgete!

    Conexin: este trmino se refiere a cuntas cartas para completar una posible escalera hay sobre lamesa. Un flop monocromo JT9 es MUCHO ms peligroso que uno J72 tambin monocromo. Estatesiempre alerta ante posibles proyectos de escalera (son una mina de oro para los buenos jugadoresde pquer porque mucha gente no se fija en ellos). Si por ejemplo el flop viene AKQ, es muyprobable que el jugador que lleva JTs se lleve el stack del rival que tiene AK.

    Cuando la mesa est conectada, debes vigilar dos opciones muy distintas pero muy posibles: tuoponente puede llevar doble pareja o un proyecto a dos puntas. A menudo, la doble pareja es lasituacin ms preocupante, porque tu mano hecha pero dbil tiene muy pocas posibilidades demejorar y superarla. Un proyecto de escalera se puede convertir en un can insuperable, pero setiene que conseguir AN ligando otra carta. La doble pareja, por el contrario, ya est hecha. Enmicrolmites, muchos jugadores juegan los proyectos de manera pasiva, pasando y viendo con laesperanza de mejorar y, sin embargo, juegan de manera agresiva con doble pareja. Tus rivales msagresivos apostarn fuerte en ambas situaciones. Cuando un jugador te contraataca en una mesa

    fuertemente conectada, debes decidir si est persiguiendo un proyecto o ya ha ligado una granmano. A partir de tu lectura, proceders en funcin a la fuerza de tu mano en relacin al rango quecreas ms probable para tu oponente.

    De forma parecida a en una mesa con posibilidad de color, una conectada se puede usar con

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8629256&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1
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    frecuencia para realizar grandes faroles o semifaroles. Pongamos que un rival 30/11/3 sube antesdel flop desde MP y t ves con posicin llevando 33. Solo estis los dos en la mano; el flop sale 765.ste es un flop REALMENTE bueno para atacar de manera agresiva: teniendo en cuenta lasestadsticas de tu oponente, su subida significa cartas altas (ovc) un mayor porcentaje de lo normal,as que la probabilidad de que no haya ligado nada es tambin ms alta de lo normal. Subir en el flopo flotar puede tener un gran valor para ti. En este anlisis estoy ignorando completamente laescalera interna (no tiene prcticamente valor porque es bastante improbable que se complete y,asimismo, bastante improbable que pague mucho mientras tenga la mejor mano). No, lo que estoy

    diciendo, es que este flop es bueno para ti porque es bastante improbable que haya mejorado lamano de tu rival. Meter presin con fuerza debera hacerte ganar este bote bastante a menudo sinllegar al showdown (NT: Ojo en microlmites con los jugadores que suben parejas bajas y los que nose saben tirar parejas medias en este tipo de flops por mucho que subas).

    El valor de las cartas altas: a tus rivales les encanta jugar cartas altas. Seguro que ya has dejadode ver subidas con KJo y A9o (porque, lo has hecho, verdad?), pero ellos no. Jugar estas manosque estn dominadas con facilidad le saldr muy caro a tus rivales despistados, pero ten presenteesta regla general: un flop lleno de cartas altas es mucho ms probable que haya mejorado a tusrivales que uno que apenas las tenga. Si un As cae en un bote con mltiples jugadores y no tengo almenos AQ, normalmente doy la mano por perdida. No hay cosa que les guste ms a los rivales quejugar ases (un As con cualquier otra carta), y cuando uno caiga sobre la mesa, se quedarnenganchados a ellos como si los ases estuvieran hechos de oro macizo. Lo que es an ms grave,una pareja de ases con kicker J o peor va a encontrarse en serios problemas a no ser que emparejetambin el kicker. Fjate en esta situacin:

    Pongamos que tienes AJ en una mesa con un As. La siguiente carta ms alta es una T. Si algn otrojugador tiene un As, Qu probabilidad tiene su mano de batirte? Bien, obviamente AK y AQ tetienen superado por el kicker, y el improbable AA te tiene machacado. Sin embargo, hay otrosCUATRO ases que te superan (aquellos que han logrado doble pareja). Eso quiere decir que vas pordelante casi con la misma frecuencia que la que vas por detrs, y eso simplemente asumiendo quetu rival "solo" tiene un As! Aades las otras dobles parejas y tros posibles, y tu mano ganar en elshowdown menos de la mitad de las veces.

    Lo que es an peor, muchos oponentes comprendern que estn batidos y tirarn sus ases conkickers bajos, pero no abandonarn con ninguna mano que te tenga superado. Si de alguna formalogras crear un gran bote, es MUCHO ms probable que vayas por detrs. En mesa corta, acta conprecaucin en mesas con un As como carta ms alta, incluso aunque lleves uno. Las mesas con Reycomo carta ms alta tambin son bastante peligrosas, porque los rivales menos selectivos jugarnmuchos reyes, especialmente con otra carta del mismo palo. Reinas y Jotas son menos peligrosascomo la carta alta de un jugador, pero MUY a temer como su carta baja. Alguien dispuesto a jugarKJo antes del flop no va a tirar prcticamente nunca una mano en un flop cuya carta ms alta seauna J.

    Resumiendo, la probabilidad de que a tu rival no le haya favorecido la mesa es muy alta si son cartas

    bajas, y mucho menor si son cartas altas. Esto es especialmente cierto si en la mesa hay ms deUNA carta alta. Una excepcin importante a esta regla: si has SUBIDO antes del flop, no abandonesla mano si en el flop cae una carta alta, especialmente si es un As. Es una gran oportunidad de robarel bote. Estadsticamente hablando, cualquier rival al que te podras enfrentar tiene menos del 50%de probabilidades de tener un As, pero si t apuestas, asumir que t S lo tienes. Una apuesta decontinuacin estndar te har ganar el bote la mayor parte de las veces. Si te contraatacan,abandona y a por la siguiente mano.

    Mesa emparejada: normalmente, una mesa con dos cartas iguales es un motivo de alegra. Porqu? Porque en una mesa sin emparejar, hay 9 cartas distintas que podran dar una pareja a unrival. Sin embargo, en una mesa EMPAREJADA, ese nmero baja hasta 5 cartas. Dicho de otramanera, es casi un 50% menos probable que un oponente tenga una mano suficientemente buena

    como para poder continuar. Deberas usar esto en su contra si es razonable hacerlo. Por ejemplo,ten presente que, si viste antes del flop y la mesa es AAK, puedes normalmente pasar tirar tus cartasporque tu rival no se va a creer que tengas algo decente. Sin embargo, si subiste antes del flop y enla mesa cae 884, una apuesta en un bote contra un solo jugador es prcticamente OBLIGATORIA: tu

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    rival se dar cuenta de que no ha ligado, asumir que llevas una pareja de mano, y se tirar ms amenudo que frente a una apuesta de continuacin tpica.

    Las mesas emparejadas son perfectas para continuar con la agresividad mostrada antes del flop.Por otro lado, ten en cuenta que los jugadores ms agresivos saben todo esto, as que si porcasualidad ests en un bote en el que otro subi, el flop viene emparejado y tienes una gran manooculta, considera seriamente jugar despacio el flop, por ejemplo pasando en falso o incluso pasandoy viendo en el flop, y pasando y subiendo en el turn. Tus rivales ms agresivos harn una apuesta de

    continuacin muy a menudo y, es entonces cuando puedes tirarte un farol y ganar as un bote mayoral que hubieras ganado de otra forma. Obviamente, esta jugada es depende especficamente de tuoponente, pero mantn tus ojos bien abiertos para detectar y aprovechar estas situaciones.

    En el turn y en el river, tambin influyen aspectos relativos a los descritos en los puntos anterioresdefiniendo la "textura" de la mesa. Como regla general, un rival selectivo seguir en una mesa wet(altamente coordinada) cuando lleve una mano o un proyecto fuerte, pero uno poco selectivo puedehacerlo con tan poco como TP. Un oponente agresivo puede apostar en mesas wets con unproyecto, un proyecto combinado (escalera y color), una pareja ms proyecto, e incluso apostar defarol total. Si un rival pasivo apuesta en este tipo de mesas normalmente es porque tiene una granmano (es raro que un jugador de este tipo apueste proyectos). Ahora, para empezar a juntar todo loexplicado, pasemos a la siguiente regla (para el prximo da...):

    http://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7332-Gu%C3%ADa-Incre%C3%ADblemente-Larga-Sobre-La-Lectura-De-Manos-Parte-II

    The 2+2 Forum Archives: An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading.

    http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=8631434&page=0&vc=1

    http://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7332-Gu%C3%ADa-Incre%C3%ADblemente-Larga-Sobre-La-Lectura-De-Manos-Parte-IIhttp://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7332-Gu%C3%ADa-Incre%C3%ADblemente-Larga-Sobre-La-Lectura-De-Manos-Parte-IIhttp://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=8631434&page=0&vc=1http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=8631434&page=0&vc=1http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=8631434&page=0&vc=1http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=8631434&page=0&vc=1http://www.poker-red.com/foros/showthread.php?7332-Gu%C3%ADa-Incre%C3%ADblemente-Larga-Sobre-La-Lectura-De-Manos-Parte-II
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    An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading.

    So you've got bottom set on a three-flush board and your opponent just check-raised you all-in.What do you do? Well, the first thing you do is you put your opponent on a hand.

    Hand reading is simultaneously the most important and the most difficult thing that a pokerplayer does. Some of the best poker players in the world ignore many (or all!) of those other"rules" in poker, have deadly-accurate hand reading skills, and make mountains of cash for their

    troubles. Other players are exquisitely good at all the fundamentals but stink at hand reading andtherefore struggle to consistently beat $50NL.

    Unfortunately, there is no "magic formula" for hand reading; after all, your opponents work veryhard to AVOID letting you know the cards in their hands. However, while there is a great deal ofartistry in hand reading, the basics are describable. After some thought I came up with theseFive Commandments of Hand Reading (I had ten, but one of the tablets broke when EMCdropped it -- sorry, blame the mod) to get you started.

    1. Know thy numbers.

    So you know that your opponent who just limped has a VPIP of 30%; what does 30% reallyMEAN? We know it's loose, but are you really aware of what "30% of all hands dealt" actuallylooks like? Here are some probabilities of getting a hand in a particular preflop range:

    Super-premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. Total probability: 2.6%.

    Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. Total probability: 5.9%.Any pocket pair: AA-22. Total probability: 5.9%.Any two broadway: Two cards, both T+, including pairs. Total probability: 14.3%.Any suited ace: A2s-AKs. Total probability: 3.6%.Unsuited ace: A2o-AKo. Total probability: 10.9%."Maximum suited connectors": JTs-54s. Total probability: 2.1%.Any ace: A2o+, A2s+, AA. Total probability: 14.9%.

    Any two suited: literally. Total probability: 23.5%.Any two connectors: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. Total probability: 14.5%.

    To give you a VERY broad feel for what different percentages translate into, here are some

    potential example ranges:

    5% = "pairs 77+, AK, AQs" or "pairs 99+, AK, AQ."

    10% = "pairs 66+, AK, AQ, suited aces, KQs, QJs"15% = "any pair, AK, AQ, KQ, suited connectors 54+, any suited ace"20% = "any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace"25% = "any pair, any suited broadway, any ace, any suited connectors 54s+, KQo"

    30% = "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any suited broadway, any suited connectors 54s+,KTo+, QJo" or "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any broadway"40% = "any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+"

    50% = "any pair, any two suited cards, any ace, any two broadway, K5o+"

    Again, remember to use the relevant range: a player who is 65/10 is looser than the 50% rangewhen he limps but has a rather tight range if he actually raises. Also realize that some players

    who are loose and passive will raise with SECOND-best hands like 88-JJ, AJ, KQ, and 54s-JTs, butNOT the ultra-premiums like QQ+, AK, and AQ -- those they will slowplay to disguise their hands.Watch these folks at showdown to try and figure out how they play their really big hands.

    Postflop aggression numbers also reveal much about a player. When a player with an averageaggression of 8 raises preflop and then checks to you, suspect a trap: this is very often a stronghand that's going for a check-raise. When you get that same preflop bet and flop check from a

    player whose average aggression is 1.3, that's more likely to be a player who missed and isgiving up. When that same play comes from someone with a postflop aggression of 0.4, you gainno information from the check -- checking is just what this player does. Mentally split players intothree groups -- high aggression, medium aggression, and low aggression -- and then adjust

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    accordingly. Be VERY afraid when a player is playing out of character: the passive postflop playerwho leads and raises almost always has a monster, and you can fold without a worry. The

    ultramaniac who check/calls two streets also has a monster, and is waiting to beat your brainsout. Don't fall for it. All of this leads us to our second commandment:

    2. Know thy enemy.

    A leopard never changes its spots, especially at uNL stakes. Together, the HUD trinity (VPIP, PFR,and average aggression) tell us much about a player. Loose players play loose; tight players playtight. Aggressive players play aggressively and passive players play passively. Categorize your

    opponents on three separate measures:

    Preflop looseness: a loose preflop player has a VPIP over 40% (I made up the number, but youget the general idea). These guys have crap preflop, and any hand you're willing to play is

    beating their range. Beware of these folks postflop, however -- there's no flop that definitelymissed your enemy. Be prepared to play with caution when you don't have a monster. That's notto say you should be check-calling; rather, expect to be ahead and bet consistently with your

    made hands, but keep the bets small and try for pot control. Alternatively, raise light and raisestrong preflop while your hand dominates your opponent's range. His mistake is playing too

    many hands -- exploit this mistake by hammering him preflop while you're way ahead.

    On the other hand, a tight preflop player has a VPIP under 20%. These folks won't enter into ahand unless they've got something worth pursuing. They aren't really making a major mistakepreflop, and the only way you can really take advantage of this characteristic is by stealing theirblinds remorselessly (though you'll have to instafold if they catch you stealing and you don't have

    an honest hand).

    Preflop aggresssion: a passive preflop player has a PFR under a quarter of their VPIP. Thatmeans that this is a floating scale: while 10% PFR is passive for a player who has a VPIP of 55%,it is aggressive for a player who has a VPIP of 15%. Alternatively, an aggressive preflop playerwill have a PFR over half of their VPIP. When we're trying to decide a player's preflop holding, we

    should use their VPIP and their PFR to come to a conclusion. Say a player has a VPIP of 40% anda PFR of 20% and they limp in front of you. What sort of holdings do you expect them to have?Well, we know the player is willing to play with 40% of his hands; our sample range for thislooked something like "any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors

    32s+." But we can already refine this range some more: we know that with 20% of those hands,villain would have raised, and here he didn't. If we assume that villain raises with his top 20%,our sample range for that looks something like "any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace." So

    take THOSE hands out of his current range: just like you discount 72o when a nit is in the hand,you discount QQ when a maniac limps. A likely range here is going to be the difference betweenthe two ranges, or "any unsuited ace, K9s or worse, K9o or worse, T9s or worse." That's a mucheasier range to play against. Be sure to watch this opponent's showdown hands, however --you'd really like to know if your assumption about him raising the top 20% of his range is correct

    or not. If you have a tricky opponent who raises his middle 20% and limps the top 10% andbottom 10%, your range will be significantly wrong, and you'll be in a good deal of trouble with

    your hand reading. One huge word of warning: people often look at a player's VPIP and concludethat the player is a loose idiot. Then they call his raise and are shocked when they find out atshowdown that he had rockets. Remember, if you are raised preflop by a 65/5, he has roughlythe same hand range as when you're raised by a 12/5. Don't mistake his typical preflop

    looseness with a wide range when he raises....

    Postflop aggression: after the flop, a new game begins. People often make the mistake ofassuming that a tight preflop player is tight postflop, or that an aggressive preflop player isaggressive postflop. This can only be discovered by observation. I will tell you that everycombination of preflop and postflop playstyles is possible, and none are terribly uncommon. The

    true TA/TA (tight-aggressive preflop, tight-aggressive postflop) and LP/LP (calling station pre andpost) is only one form of opponent. Another very common player is the TA/LA: always aggressiveand solidly tight preflop, this opponent plays hands so infrequently that when he finds something-- ANYTHING -- that he's willing to play preflop he cannot bring himself to let it go. He turns into

    a maniac postflop, relying on folding equity and a better starting hand range to win money.

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    Another common player is the TP/TA, who goes from nit preflop to aggro-monkey postflop. Ifthey miss, they're out of the hand, but if they hit the hand they're going to hammer every street

    and try to get all-in by the showdown. Less common at uNL, but increasingly common at higherlevels (and deadly-dangerous when they do it right) is the LP/TA: this player is a total callingstation idiot preflop. You'll often see preflop numbers of 75/11 or 68/6 for these folks. Don't fallfor it! It's a ruse. These folks are splashing around in as many pots as they can as cheaply as

    they can, and then postflop they play POKER. They'll be folding a tremendous fraction of the timeon the flop, escaping for 1 BB, but when they hit it will be with something sneaky-as-hell and

    solid-solid-solid. They then go into aggro mode, betting incredibly hard and relying onunobservant TAGs to call them down lighter because "hey, this idiot is 72/7, my TP3K dominates

    his range." They stack more TAGs than you and I could ever hope to, because their image getsthem mad phat postflop action. So the rule is: postflop is a new game; expect people to play adifferent style postflop from preflop, and try to quickly figure out BOTH of these styles.

    Now, once we're on the flop and beyond we need to use average aggression and postfloptightness to decide what a player's holdings are, refining our original range based on their preflopplay. This leads us to the third commandment:

    3. Know thy board.

    Flops have different "textures," and those textures can be much more or much less scary,

    depending on your holdings and your opponent's range. More importantly, different peoplerespond in different ways to different board textures. On a draw-heavy board, if a loose andaggressive player is check-calling you can expect him to have the near-nuts, but if a loose andpassive player is check-calling you can expect him to have ... well, any damn thing. What affects

    the texture of a board? Well, let's start with the flop.

    Suitedness: flops can come "rainbow" (three different suits), "two-suited" (two of one suitand one of another), or "monochrome" (all three cards in the same suit). The more "suited" aflop is, the bigger the hand most opponents will need to call. However, note that manyhyperaggressive opponents will be more likely to bet out, check-raise, or "float" (smooth-call on

    the flop with the intent of taking the pot on the turn) with either a pure bluff or a semi-bluff(draw) on these types of boards. If you are first to act, you can often steal these pots for areasonably small (2/3rds-pot) bet; if you are called, beware of the flush draw! One small bit ofmath: let's say that the flop comes with three spades and you have none in your hand. The odds

    that your single opponent flopped a made flush are 3.3% and the odds that he flopped a flushDRAW are 15.8%. If you've hit a solid hand (say, TPTK) DO NOT PANIC AND START CALLING!Bet out and protect against the draw that is 4.75 times more likely than the made flush that has

    you killed. Besides, if your opponent actually has a second-best hand, he'll be more likely to payoff a bet on a monochrome flop than he will to pay off a bet when the turn has FOUR spades(assuming he doesn't have one). Bet while your hand is best and charge him well to try andoutdraw you. Incidentally, if your board has three spades and you have one in your hand, theodds that your opponent has two spades drops to 2.6% and the odds that he has one spade

    drops to 14.4%, so the odds that your opponent is drawing to a flush are now 5.6 times higherthan the odds that he flopped the monster. Bet and protect!

    Connectedness: here we're talking about how many cards to a straight the board has. Amonochrome flop of J-T-9 is MUCH more dangerous than a monochrome flop of J-7-2. Always beaware of straight draws -- they're a gold-mine to the savvy poker player because so many peoplemiss them. When the flop comes A-K-Q, the player holding JTs just stacked the preflop raiserholding AK. When the board is connected, you need to beware of two separate possibilities: youropponent might have two pair and your opponent might have an open-ended straight draw.Often, two pair is the scarier event, because your weak-but-made hand is often drawing very thinagainst it. A straight draw can become an almost unbeatable monster, but it has to GET therefirst. Two pair is already there. At small stakes games, many players will play very passively with

    a draw, check/calling in the hopes of improving, but they will play aggressively with two pair.Your more aggressive opponents will bet BOTH hands strongly. When someone plays back at youon a fairly connected board, you need to decide if they're likely drawing or if instead they'veflopped some powerhouse hand. Then you'll proceed based on the strength of your hand in

    relation to the range you think is likely for your opponent. Much like a suited board, a connected

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    board can often be used as a powerful bluffing or semibluffing tool. Say your 30/11/3 opponentraises preflop from MP and you call in position with 33. Heads-up, the flop comes 7-6-5. This is a

    REALLY good flop for attack aggressively: considering your opponent's stats, the raise makesovercards much more likely than usual, so the odds that this flop has completely missed youropponent are higher than usual. A flop raise or a flop float can prove extremely valuable to you.In this analysis I'm completely ignoring your inside straight draw -- that's virtually worthless

    since it's highly unlikely to happen and also highly unlikely to get paid in any significant way byyour opponent while still being the best hand. No, I'm saying that this flop is a good one for you

    because it is unlikely to have improved your opponent in any meaningful way. Pressing back hardshould win you this pot quite often WITHOUT getting to a showdown.

    High Card Value: your opponents love playing high cards. Sure, you've outgrown callingraises with KJo and A9o (you HAVE outgrown that, right?) but they haven't. Playing these easily-dominated hands will prove very expensive for your inattentive opponents, but realize thisgeneral rule: a flop that is high-card heavy is much more likely to have connected with youropposition than a flop that is high-card light. If an ace hits the board in a multi-way pot and I

    don't have AT LEAST AQ, I'm usually done with the hand. Opponents love nothing more thanplaying aces, and when those aces hit the board your opponents will hang on to their aces likethey were made out of solid gold. Worse yet, a pair of aces with a J-or-worse kicker is going to

    be in oodles of trouble unless that kicker connects, too. Think about this:

    say you have AJ on an ace-high board. The next highest board card is a T. If one other playerhas an ace, what are the odds that his hand beats yours? Well, AK and AQ obviously have yououtkicked, and the unlikely AA has you decimated.

    However, there are four OTHER aces that beat you -- the ones that have made two pair. Thatmeans you're behind about as often as you're ahead in this situation, and that's even assumingthat your opponent "only" has an ace! You throw in the other random two-pair and set hands andyour hand will win at showdown less than half the time. Worse yet, most opponents will get themessage and fold their aces with weak kickers, but they're unlikely to fold any hand that beats

    you. The odds are that if you somehow create a big pot, you're even MORE likely to be behind. Inshort, proceed with great caution on ace-high boards, even if you have an ace. King high boards

    are pretty dangerous, too, because the looser opponents will play many kings, especially suitedones. Q's and J's are less scary as a player's high card, but VERY dangerous as a player's LOW

    card. Someone willing to play KJo preflop is virtually never going to fold that hand on a J-highflop.

    Recognize that the odds that your opponent has missed the board are highest on low-cardboards, and much lower when the board has high cards. This is especially true if the board hasmore than ONE high card. One major exception to this rule: if you RAISED preflop, don't give upwhen the flop comes with a high card, especially if that high card is an ace.

    This is a fantastic chance to steal the pot. Statistically speaking, virtually any opponent you couldface has a less-than-50% chance of having an ace in this situation, but if you bet the flop theywill assume you DO have one. A standard continuation bet will win the pot a surprisingly large

    fraction of the time. If they play back, fold and move on to the next hand.

    Paired Boards: usually, a paired board is a cause for celebration. Why? Because with anunpaired board there are nine separate cards in the unseen deck that could give an opponent apair. However, with a PAIRED board, that number falls to only FIVE cards. In other words, it'snow almost 50% less likely that an opponent has made a hand good enough to want to continue.

    You should use this against them if it is reasonable for you to do so. Mind you, if you limpedpreflop and the board is AAK, you can usually check-fold, because your opponent is not going tobelieve that you have the goods.

    However, if you raised preflop and the board comes 884 a bet in a heads-up pot is virtuallyMANDATORY: your opponent will realize he's missed, assume you have a pocket pair, and foldeven more often than he would fold to a typical continuation bet. Paired boards are perfect forcontinuing preflop aggression. Also, realize that most aggressive players know this, so if youhappen to be in a pot that someone else raised, the flop comes paired and you've got a sneakymonster, consider a slowplay like a flop check-raise or even a "check/call flop, check/raise turn."

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    Your aggressive targets will fire off a continuation bet quite often, and you can then "snap off abluff" and win a bigger pot than you otherwise would. Obviously, this will be opponent-specific,

    but keep your eyes peeled for such opportunities.

    On the turn and river, similar issues with connectedness, suitedness, high card value, and boardpairs will continue to pertain, and will define the "texture" of the board. As a general rule, a tight

    opponent will continue on "wet" (highly coordinated) boards when he has a strong hand or astrong draw, but a loose opponent may continue with as little as top pair. An aggressive

    opponent can bet "wet" boards with a draw, a "combination draw" (straight and flush), or apair+draw, and may even bet these boards on a pure bluff. A passive opponent betting into a

    "wet" board usually has the goods -- these folks rarely bet their draws. Now, to start to put thisall together, let's move on to the next rule:

    4. Know thy hand history.

    Here we're discussing how this particular hand has played out: who bet when and how much?Start looking for betting patterns, as different people will have different patterns. A few general

    issues:

    Check-raises: when an opponent check-raises, he is sending the message that his hand isunusually powerful. He knows you are betting and he doesn't care. What's more, he wasconfident enough to risk your checking behind in his quest to get more money in the pot. Thesetypes of bets will usually mean one of three things: either your opponent was monsterouslystrong and slowplayed an earlier street, or the last card just helped your opponent in some way,

    or he is bluffing in a situation where he thinks he can scare you off your hand. As a general rule,trust check-raises from passive players. Completely. If you don't have a sneaky MONSTER (and Imean MONSTER with a capital *everything*) you should be folding to this raise. People often ask"can I ever escape from pocket aces?" This would be one situation where escaping would beeasy. Another general rule is that the more aggressive a player is, the more likely a check-raiseis a bluff. I would say that until an opponent has an aggression factor of at least 2 you shouldn'tworry much about a check-raise semi-bluff, and until he has an aggression factor of at least 4

    you shouldn't worry much about a check-raise bluff. People are very quick to put a player on abluff when he check-raises; I believe this event is much rarer than most people think. One caveatto this: check-raises on the flop are far more likely to be bluffs or weak hands than check-raiseson ANY other street. On the flop, people will often take a check-raise line against a frequent c-

    bettor, even with hands like "bottom pair, no kicker" because they know that their opponent willfrequently have pure air. So: a check-raise on the flop usually means "I can beat ace-high," but acheck-raise on a later street usually means "I can beat YOU."

    Check-calls: this play is highly player-specific. Against a passive calling station this means "Ihave two cards. Look! Spades are pretty. I like pie." Against a tight and moderately aggressive

    player this often means "I'm on a draw." Against a highly aggressive player this often means "Ihave a monster and I'm going to let you bet yourself to death." Check-calls are precursors to

    check-raises on later streets from very aggressive players; from very passive players, they justprecede more check-calls.

    Donkbets: a "donkbet" is when someone who does NOT have the betting lead makes anunexpected bet. For instance, if a player called your preflop raise but then leads into you on theflop, that would be a donkbet. Similarly, if a player calls your flop bet but then leads on the turn,that would also be a donkbet. At these stages, a donkbet should be interpreted as saying "thatcard helped me." The more passive your opponent, the more straightforward this interpretation

    is. When a passive player comes alive on a third straight card, or a fourth flush card, or a pairingof the board, or some odd-looking random card, you should expect that the card has helped hishand out and he is now value-betting. Of course, how strong his hand is remains to be seen, but

    the card has improved him. Don't expect that this means he has the nuts: I've seen passive

    players wake up and bet the fourth heart...because it gave them two pair. On the other hand,very aggressive players love to donkbet on scare cards. This is a cheaper bluff than a check-raisebut it works just as often at these levels, and many aggressive players will take advantage of aturn ace or a third/fourth club, or a board pair to try and steal the pot. Be aware of this.

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    Unexpected checks: a player who has been betting steadily in the hand suddenly starts tocheck. What does this mean? Well, one obvious interpretation is that he has been bluffing andhas now given up on the hand. Most players are straightforward enough that this will be thecase. Against a medium-aggressive opponent, this will often be a good opportunity to bet withany two cards, since your folding equity will be through-the-roof. Another common situation is

    that a player flops a decent hand -- say top pair on a T-high board -- and then slows way downwhen the turn brings a K. They are worried about the overpair, and so have stopped betting.That does not necessarily mean they are ready to fold; some players will go from betting/raising

    to check/calling all the way to showdown. However, when an aggressive player stops beingaggressive, that's usually a sign that your situation is not as dire as you thought it was. Bewareof the hyperaggressive opponent who unexpectedly checks, ESPECIALLY if he check/calls a scarecard. For some reason, these players have taken the "strong = weak, weak = strong" philosophy

    to heart, and will often bet with little or nothing but immediately slowplay the moment they get ahand. Watch your opponents carefully to see if the turn check usually means they are giving upor if it usually means they are trapping you.

    Bet-check-bet: a strange-looking but rather common three-street line is "bet the flop, checkbehind on the turn, bet the river," where the opponent has check/called the whole way. Against

    an aggressive opponent, this river bet is often what we call a "desperation bluff." The hand hasno showdown value so the villain bets in the hopes that you will fold the best hand. Since you've

    shown little or no strength the whole hand through, they feel they have strong folding equity(which is true), and they are now attacking in a last-ditch effort to scoop up the pot. However,

    you need to be aware of what the board looked like. Another common reasoning behind this lineis that the flop bet was with nothing, the turn gave the opponent a draw, and the river eithermade the draw or missed. If an obvious draw arrived on the end, you would really need to knowmore about your opponent before you knew if this was a bluff or not. Calling against some

    opponents will be extremely +EV even with bottom pair; against other opponents it will be -EVwith anything short of a powerhouse. Again, watch your opponents and take notes on what theirlines mean.

    Our fifth and final commandment ties in to everything we've already discussed:

    5. Know thy image.

    "Image" is how the other players at the table perceive YOU. Against some opponents, this will bethe very most important commandment. Against others, it will not matter at all. It all depends onhow attentive your particular opponent is. How do we start to figure out our image?

    Only worry about image with second-level thinkers. For some of you, this isyour first segue into third-level thinking. First-level thinking is asking, "what is my hand?"

    Second-level thinking is asking, "what is my opponent's hand?" Third-level thinking is asking,"what does my opponent think my hand is?" Obviously third-level thinking is irrelevant against afirst-level thinker. However, most opponents will at least make some token effort to guess your

    hand, so against your better opponents understanding your image will be important. When youhave a complete idiot who never looks past his own hand while playing the game, don't worryabout image -- you'll just be wasting your time and effort.

    Your cards only affect your image when you SHOW them. In the last fivestraight hands you've had AA, KQ (flopped trips), QQ, JT (flopped straight), and 55 (flopped set).You won all five hands before showdown, and you never show your hands without being forced to

    do so. Recognize that your table image is now absolute CRAP. Yes, you had the goods. Sure, yourhands were actually powerhouses. Of course, your starting hand selection is tight. None of thatmatters. All your opponents have seen is you betting and raising every hand. They doubt you,and they're very quickly going to get sick of your crap and start looking you up. This is NOT thetime to get cute with QJs or 33 -- this is the time to play squeaky-clean poker as tight as you

    know how. Alternatively, if each of those five went to showdown and you displayed to the tableyour powerhouse winners, your folding equity will be HIGHER than usual, because people will

    begin to believe that you don't get involved with a hand unless you've got the goods. Be aware ofthis.

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    Recent history matters more than ancient history. Very few of your opponentsactually have Poker Tracker. As a result, their image of you will be determined by their ownpersonal observations. Most people have a relatively short memory, so concentrate most on your

    actions in the last two orbits. If your table image has fallen apart and your bluffs have gottenpicked off several times in a row, tighten up and fold for the next two orbits -- in that shortperiod of time you will rebuild most or all of your table image and you can then go back to doingyour nasty deeds. Conversely, if you've been at the table for three hours playing a 12/8 game

    but you've gotten involved in 10 of the last 12 hands, people will think of you as a maniac, andplay back at you with all sorts of crap. It's the recent history that counts, so remember how yourlast two orbits looked at the table.

    Personal history matters more than table history. A player may not rememberthat you bluffed Seat 3 off his hand five times in a row, but he WILL remember that you bluffedHIM off his hand once an hour and a half ago. People have much longer memories for hands thatinvolved them personally. If you stole a player's big blind three times in the last four orbits, he'sgoing to know that, and he's going to play back at you with any reasonably strong hand. Yourfolding equity on a steal will be particularly low against HIM, but won't be low at all against the

    other players at the table.

    Opponents will usually assume that your lines always mean the samething. If you bet 3/4ths pot on a river scare card with the nut flush, then the next time you arein a pot against that opponent and the river comes with a three-flush (not yours), bet 3/4ths pot!

    Your folding equity will be tremendous. Alternatively, if the flush card DID help you, bet aDIFFERENT amount -- push all your chips in, or bet 1/2 pot, or do something else. When youwant a call, don't do what you did the last time he saw you with the nuts. When you want a fold,do exactly what you did the last time he saw you with the nuts. People will remember these

    things.

    ----------

    I realize this post is longer than even MY usual posts, but hand reading is a tricky, subtle,complicated, and ever-changing concept. Hopefully, this material will help you do a better job ofreading hands at the table. As long and detailed as this is, know that I am just giving you the tip

    of the iceberg, here. Experience and study will help you to understand the rest of it.

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    Here are some probabilities of getting a hand in a particular preflop range:

    Super-premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. Total probability: 2.6%.Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. Total probability: 5.9%.

    Any pocket pair: AA-22. Total probability: 5.9%.Any two broadway: Two cards, both T+, including pairs. Total probability: 14.3%.Any suited ace: A2s-AKs. Total probability: 3.6%.Unsuited ace: A2o-AKo. Total probability: 10.9%.

    "Maximum suited connectors": JTs-54s. Total probability: 2.1%.Any ace: A2o+, A2s+, AA. Total probability: 14.9%.Any two suited: literally. Total probability: 23.5%.Any two connectors: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. Total probability: 14.5%.

    To give you a VERY broad feel for what different percentages translate into, here are somepotential example ranges:

    5% = "pairs 77+, AK, AQs" or "pairs 99+, AK, AQ."10% = "pairs 66+, AK, AQ, suited aces, KQs, QJs"15% = "any pair, AK, AQ, KQ, suited connectors 54+, any suited ace"

    20% = "any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace"25% = "any pair, any suited broadway, any ace, any suited connectors 54s+, KQo"30% = "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any suited broadway, any suited connectors 54s+,KTo+, QJo" or "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any broadway"40% = "any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+"50% = "any pair, any two suited cards, any ace, any two broadway, K5o+"

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    preflop range: hand in a particular: Tot.probability

    Super-premiums AA, KK, QQ, AK. 2.6%.

    Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. 5.9%.

    Any pocket pair: AA-22. 5.9%.Any two broadway: Two cards, both T+, including pairs. 14.3%.

    Any suited ace: A2s-AKs. 3.6%.

    Unsuited ace: A2o-AKo 10.9%.

    Max. suit,connect.: JTs-54s. 2.1%.

    Any ace: A2o+, A2s+, AA. 14.9%.

    Any two suited: literally. 23.5%.

    Any two connectors: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. 14.5%.

    % Some potential ranges:

    5% "pairs 77+, AK, AQs" or "pairs 99+, AK, AQ."

    10% "pairs 66+, AK, AQ, suited aces, KQs, QJs"

    15% "any pair, AK, AQ, KQ, suited connectors 54+, any suited ace"

    20% "any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace"

    25% "any pair, any suited broadway, any ace, any suited connectors 54s+, KQo"

    30% = "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any suited broadway, any suited connectors54s+, KTo+, QJo" or "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any broadway"

    40% "any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+"

    50 "any pair, any two suited cards, any ace, any two broadway, K5o+"