populasi manusia

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    Since the early 1800s,

    the human population

    on Earth has beengrowing exponentially.

    Current world

    population estimate is:

    6,404,307,344 people asof December 4, 2004

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    Human Population History

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    In 1850, the human population reached its first billion.

    By 1930, it was 2 billion.

    By 1960, the human population reached 3 billion. Then in 1975, 4 billion, and so on

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    The human population is

    now growing at a rate of

    about 3 people/second or

    260 thousand/day or

    1.8 million per week or

    93 million/year

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    Each dot represents

    1 million people

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    The overall rate of population increase depends on the number of

    births and deaths, but also on the length of generations -- the age at

    which women have their first baby.For example, if all women had three kids with a 15-year

    average generation time, the rate of population growth would be

    2.7%. If the average spacing were 30 years, the growth would

    drop in half -- to 1.35%.

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    Birth/Death Rates When a substantial proportion of a country's

    population is young, high population growth rates in a

    country are to be expected, even if the average totalfertility rate is modest. The reason is that so manyfemales are of childbearing age, that even a modestaverage total fertility rate results in a large number of

    births.

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    Total fertility rate (TFR) - estimate of the average number

    of children a woman will have during childbearing years

    In 1995, the TFR was 3.1 children per woman; still far

    above replacement level (1.6 in MDCs & 3.5 in LDCs)

    This map shows the average

    number of children born to a

    woman during her lifetime.

    The darker the color, the

    greater the number of children.

    Childbearing years are usually

    considered to be the ages of

    15-49.

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    At or below replacement level (2.1) since about1972 because:

    widespread use of birth control

    availability of legal abortion

    social attitudes favoring small families increasing cost of raising a child to age 18

    ($177,000 for low-income family, $231,000 formiddle-income & $335,000 for upper-income)

    increase in average age of marriage between 1958& 1992 (from 20 to 24.4 for women, and from 23 to26.5 for men)

    More women working outside home (child-bearingrate of "working" women 1/3 that of women not inpaid labor force)

    delayed reproduction

    Fertility Rates in the US peaked in

    1957 at 3.7 children/woman

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    Personal hygieneand improvedmethods ofsanitation have

    played a major roleand preceded theimpact of modernmedicine and, inparticular, the

    development ofantibiotics capableof reducing death

    due to infection.

    Figure 5: Death Rates per 1000 over TimeThe combination of decreasing death rate due to the march of progressin sanitation and medicine, coupled with the decrease in birth rate dueto changes in the economies, has led to a profound change in thepopulation growth curve in the developed world. This change is called

    the Demographic Transition.

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    Carrying capacity- the maximum population that

    can be supported by the available resources.

    Biological Carrying Capacity about 50 Billion

    We strive for a modified population at which a

    maximum population can be maintained at an

    acceptable standard of living- Cultural CarryingCapacity.

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    According to the latestUnited Nations

    projections, the mostlikely scenario for

    population in 2050 willbe around 8.9 billion, andwill peak out slightly

    above 10 billion after2200.

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    Impacts of continued growth in human populations include:The population of sub-Saharan

    Africa provides a clear example

    of a region suffering from over

    population. their population isincreasing by 3% yearly, while

    their food supply is only

    annually growing by 1%. This

    has led their and several other

    economically low countries'environments to such extreme

    conditions as desertification.

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    As population grows, consumption of valuable

    resources and pollution increases, which threatens

    to overwhelm the Earths ability to provide for the

    human race and other life forms.

    Overpopulation creates low living

    standards, outbreaks of civil wars, not enough

    jobs, poor food supplies, and reduced educationstandards.

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    As a result of this rapid growth:

    Approximately 1.3 billion of the world's people are impoverished, living

    on the equivalent of less than 1 dollar a day. And as population steadily

    increases, the gap between rich and poor is widening.

    Some 60% of the 4.8 billion people in developing countries lack basic

    sanitation, and almost one-third have no access to clean water.

    Nearly 1 billion people in the world are illiterate, two-thirds of them

    women.

    To resolve the problem of overpopulation, it will take a combined

    effort of the developed and developing countries to better the

    conditions of the whole planet, not just specific countries.

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    Global fertility rates have declined more rapidly than expected, as health care,

    including reproductive health, has improved faster than anticipated, and men and

    women have chosen to have smaller families. About one-third of the reduction in

    long-range population projections, however, is due to increasing mortality rates in

    sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Indian subcontinent. The most importantfactor is HIV/AIDS, which is spreading much faster that previously anticipated.

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    1) Train and educate the people of developing countries so that they can pursueindustrialization. As they progress, they will be less dependent on other countries forassistance.

    2) Educate the people in how to manage their existing natural resources sustainable.

    3) Demonstrate to the people how their natural resources can be used to generate income(example: ecotourism and its associated benefits).

    4) Consider means of financing industrialization efforts. This an be in the shape ofloans, outright gifts, etc. from countries which are already developed.

    5) Educate the developing countries about agriculture. Help them discover which crops canbe successfully grown in their climates and teach them how to grow these crops so thatthey will be less dependent on outside aid for food.

    6) Educate the people about the effects of overpopulation on their own nation.

    7) Provide information on birth control methods and finance projects to provide thistechnology to the people.

    8) Assist the countries in offering their own incentives to their citizens to reduce the birthrate (example: tax cuts for families which voluntarily have less children).