Precio de Acido Sulfurico 5

2015 FERTECON Limited Page 1 of 10 www.fertecon.com

23 January 2015

No clarity on Mosaic tender, lack of availability and high prices appear to have stalled award

European suppliers occupied with contractual shipments amidst almost inexistent spot interest

Chinese smelters come under financial pressure due to tumultuous copper values

China achieves record copper production in 2015 according to Ministry of Industry

US suppliers withstand attempts to weaken domestic acid price

India imports over 100,000 t acid over the course of January

FERTECON PRICE SERVICE PRICE INDICATIONS

23 January 16 January Notes

NW Europe /cfr 50-80 50-80 Q1 contracts

Brazil $/cfr 75-85 75-85

Chile $/cfr Mejillones (spot) 75-85 75-85

US Gulf $/cfr (spot) 70-75 70-75

Tunisia $/cfr n.m n.m

Med $/cfr 35-40 35-40

Turkey $/cfr 35-40 35-40

LIQUID SULPHUR

NW Europe cpt 197-219 197-219 Q4 contracts

Delivered Benelux (refinery) 158-176 158-176 Q4 contracts

Tampa/Deliv.Cent.Fla (LT) 129 129 Q4 contracts

SULPHUR /SULPHURIC ACID PRICES

Fertecons sulphuric acid prices are available to analyse and download immediately after publishing via this link.

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Acid NW Europe /cfr

Acid Brazil $/t cfr

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FERTECON 23 January 2015


23 January 2015

ANALYSIS

Whether youre looking at Japan, Europe or Latin America the story is the same. Supply is extremely tight as contract

shipments mop up most product availability, however due to the lull in spot demand prices have not seen any movement

over the last week; very much an echo of the prior week. Commentators believe that that this is really setting the tone for

1-half 2015 and the short-term outlook is not likely to cause anybodys heart rate to shoot up.

Illustrative of this is the fact that there does not appear to have been any award for Mosaics tender for 3 x 12,000 t for

February-April delivery. Offers were reported to have been submitted as high as $95 cfr, although this is yet to be

substantiated. Some market participants have also questioned whether or not Mosaic even attracted bids for the full

36,000 t, citing the crippling lack of acid availability on the spot market.

Suppliers in the US appear to be resisting attempts by some buyers to lower the price to $65 cfr. Buyers had been be

pushing for a $5 discount as sales in the first half of January completed at $70 cfr amid what was reported to have been

little sell-side resistance. A number of participants reported that softer prices are unlikely due to the ongoing tightness in

global supply as well as smelter economics being unsupportive of increasing acid supply. There are rumours in the

market that prices are set to increase in the short term, depending on what price PotashCorp and Mosaic settle their Q1

liquid sulphur contracts.

Whilst copper prices have rallied by $23 compared to a week ago, the bigger picture certainly looks less rosy. A number

of commentators have suggested that the ongoing rhetoric of regarding the European, Japanese and Chinese

economies through 2015 is providing a major cause for concern for the metals market. Earlier this week the European

Central Bank announced quantitative easing measures, which failed to stimulate commodity prices to the extent that it

had previously hoped. Copper, being the heart and soul of the industrial developments many economists benchmark

macro growth upon, is possible the biggest causality of this wider economic uncertainty.

SUPPLIERS

EUROPE

NW EUROPE: Spot buyers have not been very interested in European acid over the last week, which has not been a

concern to suppliers in this market who have been occupied with contract shipments. There has been a spike in interest

reported from OCP which is still negotiating Q1 sulphur contract shipments with a Russian supplier. There are indications

that delivered prices in North Africa have moved higher, with small lots heard at around $155-165 cfr therefore it is

thought that there may be some opportunity for acid prices to also firm on an fob basis.

By the now the prices in this market have been firmly established in the 50-80 range depending on the size of the

customer.

NORWAY: Norwegian export data is suppressed and therefore have had to be deduced, however based on these

deductions it would appear that in the full year of 2014, exports were around the 87,000 t level, with most of the product

going to Ireland.

January-December December

Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Belgium 20,106 18,816 17,501 2,520 0 2,100

Denmark 0 2,356 5,352 0 6 0

Ireland 11,030 27,550 38,254 0 3,701 3,502

Others 0 1 3,953 0 0 0

Morocco 8,640 314 4,901 0 0 0

France 12,925 8,003 0 2,617 3,700 0

Sweden 5,048 2 0 0 0 0

United Kingdom 30,521 12,640 17,684 4,199 0 4,421

United States 0 7,880 0 0 0 0

World 88,270 77,562 87,645 9,336 7,407 10,023

Data: GTIS/ Mirror


23 January 2015

AFRICA

SOUTH AFRICA: Exports of sulphuric acid were down by 42% in the months between January and November,

following a cutback in sales to all African markets.

January-November November

Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Zimbabwe 15,006 21,360 12,942 3,933 1,424 1,644

Zambia 6,598 2,078 138 7 53 17

Botswana 0 98 1,064 0 98 124

Malawi 5,649 1,796 196 528 0 86

Ghana 2,486 662 53 0 0 0

Others 1,374 1,366 1,381 55 83 113

World 31,114 27,359 15,776 4,524 1,658 1,986

Source: South African Revenue Service

ASIA

CHINA: With copper prices being as low as they are (22% lower than a year ago), it would appear that a number of

smelters have followed Yantai Penghui into financial difficulty. In December Yantai Penghuis copper smelter had to

cease productions due to a cash flow problem and is currently in discussions with the Chinese government regarding a

bailout. A number of observers believe that after the weakest year for Chinese economics growth since 1990, the

government will step in and support these smelters too, rather than let them fall out of production and risk the impact

such a scenario might have on both economic growth as well as industry confidence.

Domestic prices are understood to be firming on the back of tight supply in north east China; however details are opaque

with observers putting the increase anywhere in the range of Rmb 10-25 /t.

There are still indications that downstream demand in the DAP markets are healthy. However, MAP and NPK demand is

not as healthy.

JAPAN / SOUTH KOREA: Due to a lack of spot demand coupled with tight supply theres little activity to report. It has

been reported that a trader in Japan is in discussions with a buyer in Southeast Asia for a small vessel to be delivered in

February.

TAIWAN: Exports from Taiwan between January-November remained roughly on par with exports from 2013, however

almost 50% more than exports in the prior year. In 2014 less product went to Thailand than in previous years although

this was made up for by increased volumes into the Philippines. (Source: GTIS/ Taiwan Directorate General of Customs)


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Philippines 972 953 12,100 0 0 0

Thailand 10,223 21,061 11,163 0 0 0

China 8,650 8,161 8,079 920 844 683

Singapore 3,900 2,743 3,676 382 195 515

Others 3,871 3,091 4,006 2,947 777 450

World 27,616 36,009 39,024 4,249 1,816 1,648

LATIN AMERICA

MEXICO: Between January and October exports from Mexico totalled almost 590,000 t, a marginal drop on the prior

years figure despite the rise in sales to the US.

Shipments to Cuba ceased and exports to Chile dropped by 13% on 2013 to 39,000 t a substantial decrease on the

2012 figure where Mexican exports to Chile were closer to 190,000 t.


23 January 2015

January-October October

Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

United States 396,202 482,394 537,406 51,056 47,882 51,404

Chile 186,763 45,066 39,236 20,000 17 0

Venezuela 0 0 7,987 0 0 0

Guatemala 2,831 3,602 4,051 182 222 398

Cuba 95,620 82,406 58 10,345 0 0

Others 56 76 102 11 10 6

World 681,472 613,544 588,840 81,594 48,131 51,808

Source: GTIS

MARKETS

EUROPE

EUROPE: Trade in the spot market has been notably inactive over the last week whilst suppliers have been seeing

healthy demand from contractual buyers.

NORWAY: Acid imports did not diverge significantly from figures seen in previous years, although the most notable

development over the course of last year was the re-emergence of large volumes of acid from Sweden. In 2013 trade

between the two countries dropped substantially on historical levels. Meanwhile, imports from Germany mopped up most

of Norways import requirements, leaving little room at the table for old trade partners like Finland and the Netherlands.

January-December December

Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Germany 14,434 86,633 95,740 0 6,903 14,336

Netherlands 8 13,650 9

Sweden 114,537 18,557 51,454 8,563 8,431 52

Switzerland 0 8,217 0 0 0 0

Finland 5,275 26,389 0 0 0 0

Others 80 267 123 5 0 8

World 134,336 153,714 147,368 8,568 15,334 14,396

AFRICA

SOUTH AFRICA: Unusually, South Africa has imported a volume from Namibia in 2014. Typically it is an export only

market.


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Namibia 0 407 15,763 0 407 1,529

Others 7 10 95 0 0 3

World 6 417 15,858 0 407 1,532

Data: South African Revenue Service

ASIA

INDIA: Since last week there are only two new vessels scheduled for arrival in this market:

IFFCO was due to receive 24,558 t sulphuric acid from Mitsubishi ex Japan on the Chemroute Sun in Paradeep on 22

January. The price is heard at around $50 cfr level.


23 January 2015

PPL is due to receive the Sky Dream with 18,955 t sulphuric acid from Korea Zinc in Paradeep on 31 January. At the

time of publishing theres no price attached to this vessel, however it is presumed that it will also be around the $50 cfr

level.

Total January shipments are listed below:

January Vessel Line-up

Vessel Supplier Buyer Volume Arrival Port

Wawasan Ruby Trammo CIL 19,199 4 January Vizag

Success Marlina Interacid IFFCO 19,000 8 January Paradeep

Fairchem Maverick Korea Zinc PPL 19,315 9 January Paradeep

Chemroute Sun Mitsubishi IFFCO 24,558 22 January Paradeep

Sky Dream Korea Zinc PPL 18,955 31 January Paradeep

Total 101,027

INDONESIA: Looking at Indonesian imports in the first ten months of 2014, it is evident that supplies were nowhere

near the 2013 level. During the period importers received great volumes from Japan than in previous years however, the

number of tonnes received from South Korea suffered as result, dropping by 34%.


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Korea South 194,617 216,544 142,157 19,018 8,017 4,101

Japan 48,869 56,026 100,238 8,500 0 1

Philippines 16,351 36,946 97,283 0 17,555 0

China 18,578 0 3

India 156,334 0 0 19,793 0 0

Others 141 124 106 0 0 0

World 434,890 309,640 339,787 47,347 25,574 4,101

Source: GTIS/Statistics Indonesia

SINGAPORE: Imports between January-November were static on last year with volumes from Malaysia dominating.


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Malaysia 37,532 37,434 40,901 3,586 3,603 3,628

Japan 17,970 12,563 10,373 6 2 8

Korea South 4,250 5,289 5,484 190 383 494

Taiwan 4,054 3,006 3,649 402 200 414

Others 218 321 393 38 36 35

World 64,025 58,614 60,801 4,218 4,222 4,571

Source: International Enterprise Singapore

TAIWAN: It has been reported that some spot buyers in this market are enquiring about acid out of Japan and South

Korea with a view to receive product in February. Imports of sulphuric acid between January and October totalled 16,000

t less than in the same period of 2013, but ultimately were relatively flat. Taiwan continued to receive the bulk of its

volumes from Japanese smelters.


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Japan 152,475 164,211 149,160 9,992 5,000 10,300

Others 1,493 2,035 1,055 381 59 108


23 January 2015

World 153,968 166,246 150,215 10,373 5,059 10,408

Data: GTIS/ Taiwan Directorate General of Customs

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES: This market has been very quiet over the last week as suppliers appeared to be resisting attempts

by some buyers to lower the price to $65 cfr. Buyers had been be pushing for a $5 discount as sales in the first half of

January completed at $70 cfr amid what was reported to have been little sell-side resistance. A number of participants

reported that softer prices are unlikely due to the ongoing tightness in global supply as well as smelter economics being

unsupportive of increasing acid supply. There are rumours in the market that prices are set to increase in the short term,

depending on what price PotashCorp and Mosaic settle their Q1 liquid sulphur contracts.

LATIN AMERICA

BRAZIL: There does not appear to have been any award for Mosaics tender for 3 x 12,000 t for February-April

delivery. Offers were reported to have been submitted as high as $95 cfr, although this is yet to be substantiated. Some

market participants have also questioned whether or not Mosaic even attracted bids for the full 36,000 t, citing the

crippling lack of acid availability on the spot market.

Tightness in acid supply is still causing Petrobras Laranjeiras AS plant to run at a reduced capacity. It is scheduled to

start receiving acid from the Abreu e Lima refinery in Pernambuco from June which will go some way towards fulfilling its

233,000 t/y sulphuric acid demand.

It has been reported by a number of sources now that Yara will wait until February to tender for around 10,000 t sulphuric

acid.

MEXICO: Price indications for sulphuric acid are reported at about $100 cfr, unattractive against those for sulphur in the

$180s cfr.

Fertinal is due to receive 22,000 t South Korean sulphuric acid from the Chembulk Minneapolis which is currently being

loaded with 22,000 t, and is scheduled to arrive in Lazaro Cardenas on 3 February. As previously reported, this vessel is

for Fertinal and covers an old deal with Trammo concluded prior to the buyers force majeur declaration in October 2014.

Imports in the first ten months of 2014 totalled a little over 170,000 t, almost half of the volume Mexico imported during

the same period of 2013, and also notably less than in the prior year. The most notable shift is that whilst imports from

South Korea remained flat, volumes received from Japan plummeted meanwhile imports from Peru and the Philippines

made up some of the loss.


Country 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014

Korea South 57,125 85,955 84,966 0 9,700 0

Bulgaria 17,764 0 0 0 0 0

Poland 0 11,078 0 0 0 0

Sweden 0 30,651 0 0 0 0

Switzerland 0 18,669 0 0 0 0

Peru 0 0 34,845 0 0 0

Philippines 0 0 29,015 0 0 0

Japan 136,992 85,499 17,660 36,042 25,994 0

United States 3,332 5,382 4,789 318 455 502

Others 59 763 37 0 0 0

World 215,272 237,997 171,312 36,360 36,149 502

Source: GTIS / INEGI


23 January 2015

TURNAROUNDS

Turnarounds

Company Month Location Duration Status

Mitsubishi February/March Naoshima, Japan 30 days Planned

LS Nikko Q1 Onsan, Korea 30 days Planned

Glencore Q2 Leyte, Philippines 60 days Planned

METALS INDUSTRY

METAL PRICES: Whilst copper prices have rallied by $23 compared to a week ago, the bigger picture certainly looks

less rosy. A number of commentators have suggested that the ongoing rhetoric of a less than pleasant outlook for the

European, Japanese and Chinese economies through 2015 is providing a major cause for concern for the metals market.

Earlier this week the European Central Bank announced quantitative easing measures, which failed to stimulate

commodity prices to the extent that it had previously hoped. Copper, being the heart and soul of the industrial

developments many economists benchmark macro growth upon, is possible the biggest causality of the wider economic

uncertainty.

LME CASH BUYER PRICES (dollars/tonne)

Metal 8 January Weekly Change January 2014 Yearly Change

Copper 5,741 +23 7,284 -21%

Nickel 14,715 +165 14,630 +1%

Zinc 2,143 +105.5 2,050 +5%

Lead 1,881 +111 2,154 -13%

Prices are Thursdays closing cash buyer prices. The 2014 price in the third column is the price reported on the same date

one year ago.

COPPER

CHINA: According to an announcement on 21 January from the Ministry of Industry, Chinas output of refined cooper

increased by 14% in 2014 to 7.96 million t. This record production has been attributed to expanding smelting capacity,

which increased by 13% in 2014 to 5.5 million t.

INDONESIA: On 22 January Freeport McMoRans local branch Freeport Indonesia signed an agreement with

Petrokimia Gresik to build a co pper smelter in East Java. This follows the 20 January statement from the Indonesian

government banning Freeport from shipping copper out of Indonesia from next week.

The smelter is reported to be cost Freeport $2.3 billion to build, however will provide an annual capacity of 2 million t/y

copper.

NICKEL

RUSSIA: Norilsk Nickel has commenced operations at its Talnakh concentrator plant following Phase I of its upgrade.

Although this upgrade will not impact production volumes, it will increase the amount of metal recoverable from the ore

from the Talnakh and Oktyabrskoye deposits, to produce nickel and copper concentrates. The second phase is

scheduled to start in 2016, and the third stage in 2018, after which the Talnakh concentrator's processing capacity will

more than double from 7.5 million t/y to 16.5 million t/y.

ZINC

CANADA: On 19 January Trevali Mining released a drilling update from its Stratmat deposit in New Brunswick. The

results showed 39.6 metres of 3.01% zinc, 1.32% lead and 0.34% copper. Stratmat is located to the southeast of

Trevalis Caribou Mine which Trevali is scheduled to commence production at in 2015 at a rate of roughly 940,000 t/y.


23 January 2015

AGRICULTURE

CROP FUTURES: Soybeans futures dropped to their lowest level in almost three months on 20 January, falling for four

out of six sessions, with pressure from early signs of slowing Chinese appetite for US supplies and the outlook for record

South American production. Chicago Board of Trade March soybeans fell to as low as $9.81 a bushel today, the lowest

since 27 October. The first large US soybean export sale cancellation of the season by China, coming a month earlier

than last year, has sparked market concern that the recent record pace of US exports was fast drawing to a close despite

still-ample supplies of the oilseed.

The USDA said last week China cancelled purchases of 285,000 tonnes of US soybeans. The news on China's

cancellation of soybean cargoes comes amid expectations of all-time high production this year in Brazil and Argentina.

"The USDA is forecasting a good year for corn and soybean supplies in 2014/15," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness

economist, National Australia Bank. "The picture is one of abundant supply and you overlay that on the top of falling oil

prices and the effect that it is having on the ethanol market." Brazil's expected record soybean crop is about 1%

harvested nationwide, local consultancy AgRural said on Friday, in line with a year ago and the historical average for

mid-January.

Corn futures in Chicago were up on a week ago, despite signs that demand is backing away from both exporters and the

ethanol sector weighing on prices. The generally favourable South American production prospects also weighed on corn,

according to participants. On the other side, a continued lack of significant farmer selling was supportive for corn.

Meanwhile wheat futures settled 2 cents lower than a week ago, showing a lack of any clear direction. Speculative short-

covering and renewed concerns over the unrest in Ukraine provided some underlying support for wheat, according to

participants. A weaker US dollar was also supportive, as it makes US wheat more attractive to internationally buyers. On

the other side, favourable weather conditions for the US winter wheat crop did put some pressure on values. Large

global supplies also continue to overhang the market.

CME CROP PRICES (cents/bushel)

Product March 2015 Weekly

Change May 2015 July 2015 January 2014

Corn 388 +7 395.6 402.4 426.2

Wheat 572.2 -2.5 576.2 579.4 561.2

Soybean 983.4 -25.85 989.4 994.4 1,279.4

Rough Rice 1,137 +22 1,162 1,185 1,550.5

Prices are Mondays closing rates for the forward months indicated. The 2014 price in the final column is the forward

price reported one year ago.

MALAYSIA: Palm oil futures could drop this year to their lowest level since February 2009 and may be volatile because

uncertainty in the global economy causes prices in commodity markets to fluctuate, an official from the Malaysian Palm

Oil Board (MPOB) said. Malaysian palm oil prices, which set the tone for global prices, are expected to trade between

MYR1,820 ($504) and MYR2,750 in 2015, against earlier estimates of MYR2,300-2,500 , said Ramli Abdullah, head of

the MPOB's economic unit.

Ramli told an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur that output in Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm grower, was

expected to rise to a record 20.09 million t in 2015, lower than his earlier prediction of 20.5 million t in October. Malaysia

churned out 19.67 million t of crude palm oil in 2014. This year's output, however, may be crimped by the delayed effect

of severe monsoon flooding in December.

Overseas sales of Malaysian palm oil are likely to rise to 25.77 million t from 25.02 million in 2014, Ramli added.

ARGENTINA: Heavy rains across northern Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios this past weekend increased wetness

concerns again, while rains across Cordoba further improved moisture there for corn and soybeans. However, dryness is

building further in east-central La Pampa and south-western Buenos Aires. Additional heavy rains in Santa Fe and Entre

Rios this week will maintain wetness concerns there, but wetness should ease a bit in the six to 10-day period as rains

become much more limited.


23 January 2015

Rains this week should improve moisture slightly in northern La Pampa, but dryness will persist in east-central La Pampa

and south-west Buenos Aires.

BRAZIL: If the latest forecasts of bumper soy harvests in Brazil and the US play out, a massive supply could push

global soy prices southwards, which could help Brazil achieve record soy grain exports of around 50 million t, while at the

same time boosting domestic soy processing to around 40 million t. Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 95.92

million t of soy in the ongoing 2014/15 season, up by 11.4% from the 86.12 million t produced in the previous season,

according to the latest January report issued by Brazils National Supply Company (CONAB).

The central-western state of Mato Grosso will remain the largest producer with a harvest of 28.22 million t, up 6.7% from

2013/14. Soy growers in Parana state in southern Brazil are expected to harvest 17.22 million t of soy, up by 16.5% from

2013/14, while neighbouring Rio Grande do Sul is expected to remain third-ranked with a harvest of 13.46 million t, up by

4.6% from the previous season.

December was a month of great stability in international prices. Despite an increase of global supply because of the

large US harvest and the South American forecasts (Brazil and Argentina) and the consecutive recovery of global stocks,

international prices remain above $10.0 /bushel, said CONAB.

CONAB attributed the high prices to strong demand in the US market, principally for soymeal, and strong [expected]

Chinese imports in 2015. In the domestic market, CONAB explained that soy prices in December dropped somewhat

compared to the preceding month, however the price levels remained strong as a consequence of the devaluation of the

Brazilian real compared to the US dollar.

In the international market prices ranged from $9.70-9.80 /bushel some three months ago to $10.50-10.60 /bushel. The

price level of $10.20-10.30 was the mid-point for the past three months. The USDA recently confirmed that the North

American volumes would amount to around 108 million t, which is a large harvest and the largest official soy harvest by

the US authorities, said Camilo Motter of Cascavel-based grains broker Granoeste Corretora de Cereais e Sementes.

Motter added that soy prices in the Brazilian market recently had a marked decline because soy grain from the previous

harvest was being traded until December at prices around 5% higher than global prices. Now, with the start of the [new]

harvest western Parana already has significant volumes of new soy on offer and in Mato Grosso soy from the new

harvest is also being traded already. So prices of old and new grain have realigned with international prices, he

explained.

At the end of the current Brazilian soy harvest, in the first quarter of 2015, global soy stocks will amount to around 90

million t, announced the food & agribusiness research and advisory division of Rabobank International Brazil in a new

annual report. This will surpass the volume registered in 2013/14 by 24 million t. Should this be confirmed, the

significant increase of 36% in the global reserves will be the largest variation ever registered for this commodity, said the

bank in its annual report that was issued days before the latest CONAB harvest forecast. According to Rabobanks

projections, the price of the 2015 harvest in Chicago could average around $9.00 /bushel or even less.

While soy supply can fluctuate widely, the same is not true for demand. Global demand has been very consistent

despite somewhat limited global economic growth, explained Motter, adding that Chinese economic growth has been

below expectations and crude oil prices have been unfavourable for commodities. Demand remains consistent but we

have to see whether Brazil faces any problems that could reduce volumes leading to lower harvest forecasts ... which will

have an impact on prices, said Motter.

Another aspect that will influence the markets, according to Motter, is the currency exchange rate in Brazil. I think we wil l

have a year with a great volatility in the currency exchange rate. This will evidently influence the price. We, however,

believe that the exchange rate will be well above last years rate when the average was around BRL 2.25-2.30 /USD.

This year, we can probably expect an exchange rate of BRL 2.50 /USD, said Motter.

Looking back at recent years, great price rises in the market were not due to a shock in demand, as we had a consistent

rise in demand. Even with record prices, demand was high and it remains inelastic. On the other hand, we had supply

shocks in the past four years at least three such shocks. Should Latin America have a strong harvest, we could see

[soy] prices fall once again, said Motter. While falling prices will undoubtedly pile pressure on farmer margins, new

opportunities are opening up in the processing industry. Brazils animal feed industry is signalling greater demand for

animal proteins in 2015, while vegetable oils will also be in higher demand for biodiesel production. As a result, soy

processing is set to increase to 38.3 million t in 2015, up from 36.8 million t in 2014, said Rabobank.


23 January 2015

Brazilian soy exports in 2014 amounted to approximately 45.7 million t, a record value, which is 7% above the $23.27

billion exported in the preceding year. For 2015, with the projected increase in Chinese imports and lower international

prices, the total exports are expected to reach 49.6 million t, with domestic crushing amounting to 41 million t, explained

CONAB in its January report.

UNITED STATES: US corn crops saw large cuts to its production and yield while soy numbers continue to balloon,

according to the latest USDA report. Though corn stocks were a record 11.203 billion bushels as of December 1, the

USDA trimmed its US corn harvest to 14.216 billion bushels from 14.407 billion and the average yield to 171.0 bushels

per acre from 173.4, the first report of the year outlined. Analysts had been expecting a corn harvest of 14.349 billion

bushels and an average yield of 173.3 bushels per acre.

I am really surprised on that corn yield, one US trader commented to The Public Ledger. Production took a 191 million

bushel hit thanks to a 2.4 bushel-per-acre yield reduction, both well below average trade guesses. World corn carryout

drops 3 million t thanks to a 3.5 million tonne loss in production, pretty much thanks to US harvest declines, he added.

The USDA also lowered its outlook for 2014/15 domestic corn ending stocks to 1.877 billion bushels. "The report left me

without a clear outlook for corn prices...if I had to guess I think prices will head up in the near term," another trader

revealed. Chicago Board of Trade corn picked up following the report hitting $4.04 /bushel as of 1730GMT.

Meanwhile, the soybean harvest in 2014 continues to grow with the USDA pegging the total US soybean crop at a record

3.969 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 47.8 bu per acre, both record numbers. A month ago, USDA numbers

placed the soybean crop at 3.958 billion bu and average yield was 47.5 bu per acre.

The harvest pushed US soybean stocks as of December 1 to 2.524 billion bu, up from 2.154 billion bu a year ago but

below the 2.590 billion bu predicted by the average of trade forecasts. Soybean acreage was also trimmed down to

83.061 million from 83.403 million. The USDA also raised its outlook for Brazil soybean production by 1.5 million t to a

record 95.50 million t. Production in Argentina meanwhile was seen at 55 million t, unchanged from December.

Wheat mostly takes back seat in the report with no major figures changed. The USDA outlined that farmers seeded

40.452 million acres of winter wheat, compared to forecasts ranging from 41 million to 44 million. A year ago, total winter

wheat plantings were 42.399 million acres. Meanwhile acreage for hard red winter wheat, the largest class, fell to 29.5

million. The average of analysts' hard red winter estimates was 31.023 million acres. The USDA also raised its wheat

ending stocks view to 687 million bushels.

www.agra-net.com

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