Pres Kengera 3

7/23/2019 Pres Kengera 3

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1. O DEFINITION, BACKGROUND AND APPLICATION OF THEORY OF CHANGE

1.1.1 Introduction.

Planning for and evaluating complex community-based initiatives has been of recent a great

challenge amongst community philanthropists and development stakeholders, be it a project,

program or policy development initiative. Most of these interventions have under-achieved their

long term goals, a thing which is largely attributed with the lack of logic among the prerequisite

major components for realiation of the preconceived results from the intervention particularly

when crafting it. !ogic models like logic framework approach "!#$% and project conceptual

model are essential to project planning particularly during project formulation. &owever the big

doubting question is their mere inability to document the intervention in a pathway of change or

causal relationship as they pictorially entail it to be in a linear way, and perhaps fail to envision

the project steps throughout the project lifespan and the way how each step is affected by the

precondition. 'hat being said, a need for a new (eye bird view) on planning and evaluating

comprehensive community initiatives was inevitable. 'his is none other than a ('heory of

*hange.) +nlike other logic models, a theory of change goes an extra mile beyond in a more

complex manner as it takes a wide view of desired change by thinking through all the mini steps

along a pathway of change toward a desired change as hereunder discussed.

1.1.2 D!inition"

$ theory of change is the articulation of the underlying beliefs and assumptions that guide a

service delivery strategy and are believed to be critical for producing change and improvement.

'heories of change represent beliefs about what is needed by the target population and what

strategies will enable them to meet those needs. 'hey establish a context for considering the

connection between a system)s mission, strategies and actual outcomes, while creating links

between who is being served, the strategies or activities that are being implemented, and the

desired outcomes. "nternational /etwork on 0trategic Philanthropy, 'heory of *hange 'ool

Manual 1223%.

$ theory of change is a description of a social change initiative that shows how early changes

relate to more intermediate changes and then to longer-term change. t can form the basis of

strategic planning and, as a blueprint for the work ahead and its likely effects, it can be used for



management and decision making as a project or program develops and progresses. "4ean 5llis et

al 1266%. 'heory of change is (a theory of how and why initiative works) that is, describing the

set of assumptions that explain both the mini steps that lead to long term goal and the connection

between these activities and outcomes of an intervention "7eiss,6883%. t establishes a context

for considering the connection between a system)s mission, strategies and actual outcomes, while

creating links between who is being served, the strategies or activities

that are being implemented, and the desired outcomes "$nderson $, 1223%.

n other words, the theory of change spells out program logic as it defines long-term goals and

then maps backward to identify changes that need to happen earlier before and they are termed as

preconditions, these changes are mapped in causal pathways of outcomes that show that the

preceding outcomes become the vital condition for the receding outcomes to be realied. 'he

measurable indicators of success are identified as # ro#d$#% to monitoring and evaluation

"'aplin et al, 1269%.

#urthermore, the theory of change is a particular kind of methodology that facilitate the planning,

participation, monitoring and evaluation process, that can be used in the philanthropy, non-profit

and government sectors to stimulate the social change. n applying this methodology a society is

influenced to change in a positive way, and provided with the means on how the long term goal

kept can be reached out. 'he long-term goals are mapped backward to identify necessary

%rcondition" hence "&ort'tr$, i$$di#t #nd (on)'tr$ outco$" are reasonably mapped

backward and create the so called outco$" %#t&*#+ or %#t&*#+ o! c&#n) as pictorially

presented below:



TOC' $#%%in) #c-*#rd t& $ini "t%"

ULTIATE OUTCOE

"!ong-term ;oal% A P#t&*#+ o! c&#n)

PENULTIATE OUTCOE/

INTEREDIATE OUTCOE/

Prcondition"0

ini "t%"0$i("ton" EARLY OUTCOE/

FIR/T OUTCOE/

$dopted from Andr# Andr"on, P&D The Aspen Institute Roundtable.

T&or+ o! c&#n) $u"t

Credible; it must be centered on former experience and understanding from the different

stakeholders or pertinent research where applicable.

Achievable; the availability of the required resources to carry out the intervention as it has

stipulated.

Testable; the model will arrange for clear, specific and broad indicators that can be used to assess

progress and achievements.

Supported; the stakeholders will be involved in defining and agreeing on the theory of change

and as a team will have a shared language with which to go onward.



1.1. A%%(ic#tion

'he theory of change is basically applied in complex community-based interventions. t is

imperative to note that, a theory of change is both a process and a product. t is a process in that

it involves directional activities that are systematically and logically organied for realiation of

the preconditions that pave the way for the long term goal accomplishment. 'he theory is also

claimed to be a product as it is sought first for both planning and evaluation process. 'hus the

following stages have to be put at stake.

0tage one, analying the context. 'his is the first stage before other parts being brought into

considerations. 'he major parts here being the problem, context and the driving forces for the

problem , existing policies, practices and beliefs of the target population, stakeholders and the

power relation that exist between a person to another. *apacity of the implementing body

"literally project people% including resources like human, funding and the necessary materials.

'he baseline of the problem will not only uncover the issue but document the benchmark for

making a case for evaluation. 7hile mapping of actors, stakeholders and power relations will

typify who should be tasked a certain responsibility and how influential one is.

0tage two, defining the long term change or development impact. $fter mapping the context, the

next stage is to realie the anticipated intervention)s long term goal which should be reflecting

the realities in the stage number one. 'hat is, the statement should be realistic specific and

feasible covering the intended benefits for the target group. 'he statement for instance could read

like (<y 1212, local communities in the regions of 0hinyanga, 0ingida and =odoma have

improved availability and accessibility of quality and safe water for home consumptions through

a shared community based intervention by involving locals in making decisions in matters like

where to re-allocate water projects and getting use of their long lived experience through active

participation.

0tage three, sequence of events anticipated to lead to the desired long term outcome. 'his stage

is where the change process is expressed as a sequence of events or change in the context.

Mapping out the change process is where the connections the process where the connections

between the activities, preconditions and the bigger picture of development outcomes. 'his

should make progression of changes from one stage to another and ideally the sequence of



change should be mapped backwards from the long term impact, so that the long term logical

and conceptual links are articulated clearly. 0trategies and all the important resources are highly

prioritied for execution of activities related to preconditions for the next change.

'he last stage is making explicit assumptions. 'his is perhaps the most important stage in the

theory of change and the most challenging one. $ssumptions are the theories in the 'o* as it is

beyond doubt that every intervention is packed with beliefs, assumptions and hypotheses about

how change happens and the theory of change in this regard will typify about how change will

happen in the project or program "www.theory of change.org%.

0o, in respect of this wisdom project people must tirelessly embark on grinding workable

assumptions that will pave the way for an informed decision making on which strategy to be

deployed and bring about innovations. 'riangulation is highly regarded as the panacea for

making a case for which decision to make.

1.23 T&or+ o! c&#n)3 /i$i(#riti" #nd di!!rnc" *it& ot&r (o)ic $od("

=ifferences:

Lo)ic od(" T&or+ o! C&#n)

;raphically illustrate program components,

and creating one helps stakeholders clearly

identify outcomes, inputs and activities

!ink outcomes and activities to explain &>7

and 7&? the desired change is expected to

come about

+sually start with a program and illustrate its

components

May start with a program, but are best when

starting with a goal, before deciding what

programmatic approaches are needed

@equires identifying program components, so

you can see at a glance if outcomes are out of

sync with inputs and activities, but they don)t

show 7&? activities are expected to produce

@equires justifications at each step A you

have to articulate the hypothesis about why

something will cause something else "it)s a

causal model, rememberB%

http://www.theory/

http://www.theory/



outcomes

=oesn)t always identify indicators "evidence

to measure whether outcomes are met or not%

@equires identifying indicators, because, you

need to know &>7 75!! a precondition

needs to be met in order to get to the next

goal.

0how someone something they can

understand at a glance

=esign a complex initiative and want to have

a rigorous plan for success

=emonstrate you have identified the basic

inputs, outputs and outcomes for your work

5valuate appropriate outcomes at the right

time and the right sequence

0ummarie a complex theory into basic

categories

5xplain why an initiative worked or did not

work, and what exactly went wrong

0imilarities:

n program or project management both 'heory of change and !ogic Models demonstrate

how an intervention "a project, a program, a policy, and a strategy% is likely to contribute

to possible or actual impacts.

<oth describe linkages among program resources, activities, outputs, and audiences, and

highlights different orders of outcomes related to a specific problem or situation

'hey normally provide direction and clarity by presenting the big picture of change along

with certain important milestones.



=uring project planning , 'heory of change and !ogic models help to clarify program

strategy, development MC5 systems, develop evidence for measuring

change"indicators%, identify appropriate outcome targets, set priorities for allocating

resources and timelines

'hey provide an inventory of what you have and what you need to operate the program or

initiative, develop a management plan.

1.3 T&or+ o! c&#n) #" %(#nnin) #nd 4#(u#tion too("

!et us consider the *haracteristics of planning

Objectives oriented; if there are no objectives no organiation can ever be thought about. 'his is

because management originates with planning and planning originates with the determining of

objectives.

Primary function of management; if there is no planning no other function of management can

be accomplished. 'his is because planning is the first important function of management. 'he

other functions Aorganiing, staffing, directing and controlling come later.

Continuity; the planning process is continuousD the process begins with the beginning of project

itself and ends with the ending of the project.

Advanced; planning decides the plan of actions, it also answer the questions like what is to be

done, how is to be done, when is to be done, by who is to be done, all the questions are related to

future. +nder the while struggle is made to find out these answers.

Mental exercise; as a mental exercise planning is related to thinking before doing something. $

planner has mainly to think about the questions like 7hat to doE &ow to do itE 7hen to do itE

7ho is to do itE

A" # %(#nnin) too( t&or+ o! c&#n) doin) t& !o((o*in)



Pro4id # 4i"ion #" )uidin) %oint !or %(#nnin) !r#$*or- $s a part of program planning and

evaluation theories of change create a commonly understood vision of the long-term goals, how

they will be reached "planning%, and what will be used to measure progress along the way

"evaluation%.

A T&or+ o! C&#n) i" # "%ci!ic #nd $#"ur#( in it there is a description of a social change

initiative that forms the basis for strategic planning, on-going decision-making and evaluation.

'he theory of change can some time mean a process or result. 'his is because the methodology

used to create a 'heory of *hange is also usually referred to a 'heory of *hange, or the 'heory

of *hange approach or method. n the ongoing decision making and evaluation is where the

theory of change provides a chance for planning again and improvement for better results.

A" # %(#nnin) too( # t&or+ o! c&#n) provides an opportunity to get stakeholders really

involved in the work. 'hose who involved are provided with an opportunity to assess what they

can influence and what level of change they can realistically expect to achieve in regard to a time

bounded and the resources available.

A" # %(#nnin) too( # t&or+ o! c&#n) helps in showing how the project working at a local level

and on a relatively small scale, can contribute to the broader picture. t may appear that

organiations find there is a gap between the level at which they are working with users and the

evidence of impact that their funders want to see demonstrated, that is a gap between project

level and higher level outcomes.

#or example, a project may intend to contribute to longer term goal of improving health status to

less than five years of age children of a certain place by reducing malnutrition but as an

intervention technique, it is providing awareness rising on the proper ways of how to feed a child

to the mothers and fathers of different ethnicity and economic status. t may feel that it cannot

realistically be accountable for achieving this longer-term aim, because, there will be too many

other individual constraints, family)s level of income, social cultural hindrance, and other context

factors, both positive and negative, that will affect longer-term change. &owever, it would be

valid for the project)s theory of change to show the links between the outcomes that it can

directly influence through its own work, and those positive longer-term changes to which it

might contribute.



It "&o*" # c#u"#( %#t&*#+ !ro$ &r to t&r, a theory of change specifying what is needed

for goals to be achieved "for example, in our previous example of a project aimed at improving

health status by reducing malnutrition to less than five years of age children of a certain place, it

might be argued that, mothers and fathers attending to training a minimum number of days is

necessary if they are going to learn on the proper ways of how to feed a child.

A" # %(#nnin) too( # t&or+ o! c&#n) requires the articulation of the underlying assumptions

which can be tested and measured. 0o the planning can be the results of those assumptions. f the

assumption is level of malnutrition to less than five years of age children is caused by parental

unawareness on the proper feeding, then the planned activities on awareness rising considered as

a solution to that. t also changes the way of thinking about initiatives from what is done to what

is needed to be achieved and starts there.

A T&or+ o! C&#n) %ro4id" # ro#d$#% which enable a planner to get from here to there.

$lso it can be a good example to be followed by others. f it is good and complete, the roadmap

can be read by others and show that there is a know how to chart the course. 'his is helpful not

only to the project but also to the constituents, staff, partners, organiations and funders. More

importantly, if it is good and complete, a theory of have the best chance of making the change in

the world by helping a planner to set out, make, and demonstrating the successes and the lessons

along the way.

A T&or+ o! C&#n) i" # too( !or t&in-in) "as one among of the mentioned above

characteristics of planning is mental exercise% through the steps from the situation to the goal. t

uses a graphical representation of changes to articulate and test the causal links between

objectives. t highlights threads that do not fit into the overall change framework, which will help

to clarify the project)s objectives, and guided by planning questions like 7hat to doE &ow to

do itE 7hen to do itE 7ho is to do itE

A t&or+ o! c&#n) #" # %(#nnin) too(, it c#n #("o u"d !or %(#nnin) c#$%#i)n"

*ampaigning organiations are generally clear on their strategies, tactics and their long-term

aims. 'hese long-term aims are often expressed as policy changes, environmental conditions or

changes in the wellbeing or quality of life for specific groups of people. Meaningful evaluation



of campaigning work requires definition of what happens between the implementation of

strategies and the ultimate long-term outcomes or impact.

T&or+ o! c&#n) #" E4#(u#tion too( doin) t& !o((o*in)

It r4#(" *&#t "&ou(d 4#(u#td *&n #nd &o* this enable the project and program

managers to use such a feedback to adjust what they do and how they do it to achieve the best

results. $ theory of change methodology will also help to identify the way people, organiations

and situations change as a result of an organiation)s activities or services, this will also help to

develop models of good practice.

T&or+ o! c&#n) &(%" or)#ni5#tion" to idnti!+ # nu$r o! "tr#t)i" together with

cooperation, campaigns, public awareness efforts, community mobiliation efforts and the like.

'his leads to achieve a policy change or set an agenda. $n evaluation strategy which has been

framed around a theory of change will provide a powerful tool which helps in persuading policy

makers and contributing to additional discussion about good practice.

Loo-in) !or c#u"#( connction" # t&or+ o! c&#n) *i(( &(% to !or$u(#t 4#(u#tion

6u"tion" the questions help to test out other underlying assumptions that have been made. n

our example of the project with children under five years of age, these covered a number of

different elements in the project, such as the initial responsiveness of the parents and their ability

to engage, and the importance of ethics and income support consideration. 'he project assumed

that the awareness raising would provide a vital link between the participants and the reduction

of malnutrition, to improve health status.

7hen assessing what happened against these elements in the theory, there will be related

questions. #or example, how important was the type of awareness rising provided and the quality

of food offered by the parents to improve health status of the children less than five years of ageE

Participants) cultural beliefs, level of income, and types of economic activities may also beimportant factors that can affect change. 0o the evaluation might see what are the important data

suggests about the possible link between those individual circumstances and results. Moreover,

the evaluation should consider the assumptions that were made about the external environment.



n our example of health project, there was an underlying assumption that the health status to the

children less than five years of age will be improved if parents were able to reduce malnutrition

through awareness rising, and could take them up. 'he evaluation will need to look on the extent

to which malnutrition has been removed and the type of food available for the children more

generally and put this in the consideration. &ad the proper diet taking been improvedE 7ere there

wider government policies creating an effect which interacted with the projectE $sking such

types of questions is so crucial because there will be some factors that were within the control of

the project and others that were notD these should be identified as they may be critical during

reformulating the theory of change as a result of the evaluation conducted.

Ho*4r t&or+ o! c&#n) c#n 4#(u#td to $#"ur it" !itn"" to t& %ro7ct "t#)" <y

evaluating the theory of change perfectly, will help in the planning of some level of evaluation

early on, rather than leaving it to the end of the project, so that lessons learnt can be fed back in

the project or program delivery, and gives the chance for adjustment, decision making and

further planning and implementation activities.

A("o # t&or+ o! c&#n) #" 4#(u#tion too( it &(%" in #"-in) t&" 6u"tion" these questions

are so important in assessing the project intended impact. 'he questions like A 7as the central

theory a valid oneE 7hat outcomes, planned or unexpected, occurred for the target group and for

othersE 7ere our assumptions, for example, about the enabling environment, and the links

between outputs and outcomes, borne outE 7hat was important in the way that we did thingsE

7hat activities were valued and gave positive resultsE 7hat needed to be differentE 'he theory

of change will be constructed around a central proposition. 7hen the data will be brought

together and evaluate, above all, this is what will be testing, as well as the associated

assumptions that being made, assessing whether the theory has been confirmed or how it might

be reformulated.

/evertheless, t& d4(o%$nt o! indic#tor" #" %ro4idd + t& t&or+ o! c&#n) are sospecific in terms of quality which measured by what questions, quantity which measured by

how much types of questions, time which measured by when kind of questions, target group

which measured by who questions, and place which measured by where questions. $ll these

questions used to assess the situation before the project or program implementation by

considering the baseline study.



#ormative evaluation is to assess to what extent the compliance to appraisals adhered. $lso the

midterm evaluation is conducted midway through implementation so as to capture the sponsors)

interest to put them in a position where they can make some adjustment if necessary, and some

time they can terminate to avoid extra loss. 'hen, the end line evaluation which is summative in

nature is conducted always by the external evaluator to assess how well the project achieved its

intended objective. #inally, the ex post evaluation which occurred some years after the

completion of the project to assess impact and sustainability.

Gnr#((+, apart from being a planning and evaluation tools, a theory of change can also be used

as a framework to support the project or program monitoring due to the following functions it

play in monitoringD firstly t helps in proving progress against milestones. Secondly t helps to

check what really happened against the map and document lessons learned. Thirdly it provides

the indicators which will help to suggest what routine data to collect. !ourthly it can be used as a

basis for reports to trustees, funders and other stakeholders. !ifthly the theory of change can be

used as a foundation for setting out a monitoring and evaluation outline, which will offer a plan

of action for the self-evaluation, and will also indicate when there is a might to have an external

evaluation carried outD it will also provide the starting point for briefing the evaluators. "astly

the timelines established when planning will be essential and point out when to expect change to

come about and when to monitor it. 0ome of the outcomes may occur to a certain extent early

stages, while others may take a number of years to happen. 'he discussion here can also be

represented by using the model belowD



1.83 #7or co$%onnt", it" u"!u(n"" #nd r(4#nc+

*omponentsFelements

of 'heory of *hange

@elevancyFimportance

6 =esired long-term goal 6. mportant process in conceptualiation as it shows the big

picture that needs to be achieved.

1. t is the final destination of the road map

9. nvolves identification of the target group. 7here does one

want to see the big picture and who should be in the picture.

"who should be impacted%

1 0et of assumptions 6. explain the underlying logic of what has been depicted in

the outcomes framework map

1. ;ives a clear picture of the connections between outcomes

in the pathway, and why the outcomes that are depicted are

the complete set of necessary and sufficient preconditions

required to bring about the targeted outcome.

9. 5xplain the connection between planned interventions and

the expected outcomes.

9 $ series of activities 6. <rings out the causality effect by showing how one

activity from the bigger picture will lead to another

activity thus causing an impact.

1. @esponds to assumptions that are underlying the theory,

and therefore allows the theory to be tested after some

period of time.

G 0trategies strategies that will be put in

1. involves identifying initiativesFmethods that will bring

about each outcome in the outcomes framework



2. involves identifying all of the necessary and sufficient

preconditions for reaching a long-term goal

3. nvolving mapping out resources that are needed to realie

the outcome but also assessing how much of the resources

you have and identifying the gap. &aving a resources

mobiliation strategy is also important.

4. nvolves stakeholder analysisD exploration for possible

partnerships.

3 !ist of indicators 6. 'rack progress toward outcomes in the pathway with a

focus on specifying the signals of how the initiative will be

declared a success

1. &elp the user communicate in very specific ways how much

change, how many people, and what time frame will be

used as measures of a successful outcome.

H 'imeline 6. $ very important component as it sets a guideline on what

should be completed by when, that way is easier to deal

with any challenge that will hinder implementation and

allows transparency and accountability.

1.93 Li$it#tion o! t&or+ o! c&#n)



• ProgramFthings do not happen in straight line sequence because programFthings are

unpredictable ways according to multiple of programFthings.

• 'heory of change does not show the fact of thing to happen rather than we believe thing

will happen because we forecast that thing will occur but in the time of running the

project there is a lot of uncertainties.

• 'heory of change fit in large project rather than small project, which lead to action,

monitoring and evaluation and last adjustment can be done if needed. 'his does not work

in every project it works more in large project which take a long period to run the project.

• 'heory of change can only work on effective leaders who can delegate and trust their

teams to carry out the works apart from that this theory cannot work. 0o, if there is bad

leadership, no delegation and trust.

• 'his theory is oversimplification on how the project will bring about changes because

there can be many difficulties may arise while the project is in process of implementation.

• 'heory of change consume a lot of time in the process of action, monitoring,

implementation and evaluation, since your forecast will extend beyond the forecasted

period, for example, it easier to gather evidence about activities undertaken than about

outcome result from those activities.

• f the facilitator is uncomfortable with, or not well-skilled in the process, then

participants often feel confused.

• f participants don)t feel ownership of the process and product "or develop a sense of

ownership as they work together%, they are more likely to feel alienated.

• f using the theory of change process is imposed from outside "by the funder for

example%, it may seem inappropriate, culturally insensitive, different from our way of

doing things.



• 'hat is a dangerous assumption because focusing only on getting a theory done with as

little time invested as possible often puts people in a position that is detrimental to team

building. "$ctInowledge and the $spen nstitute @oundtable 1229%.

'o wind up, planning and evaluating complex community-based development initiatives"projects, programs and policies% have to be looked at with a broader and encompassing

approach that will not only show the directional change but typically articulate the necessary

elements, the milestones or mini steps "preconditions% and how they are related to each other and

how they logically map in order to realie the long-term outcome. 0o, a theory of change is

essential in partaking *omplex community-based development initiative as it goes an extra mile

beyond other logic models in a more complex manner as it avoids linearity assumptions.

@5#5@5/*5

$ctInowledge and the $spen nstitute @oundtable "1229%, *omprehensive *ommunity

nitiatives. www.theoryofchange.orgFpdfFteambuilding.. @etrieved Gth 4une 1263

$/=5@0>/ $. "1223%, *ommunity <uilders $pproach to theory of changeD the $spen nstitute

@oundtable, /ew ?ork.



;rant craft, Mapping *hange +sing a 'heory of *hange to ;uide Planning and 5valuation

http:FFportals.wi.wur.nlFfilesFdocsFppmeF;rantcraftguidemappingchangesJ6.pdf @etrieved 18th

May, 1263

&elKne *lark, et alD $spen nstitute @oundtable on *ommunity *hange "122G%D 'heories of

*hange and !ogic Models: 'elling 'hem $part

nternational /etwork on 0trategic Philanthropy, 'heory of *hange 'ool Manual "1223%.

http:FFwww.dochas.ieF0haredF#ilesFGF'heoryJofJ*hangeJ'oolJManual.pdf @etrieved 18th May,

1263

4ean 5llis et al "1266% *harities 5valuation 0ervices, +sing a theory of change to develop

planning and evaluation

http:FFwww.cesvol.org.ukF@esourcesF*harities5valuation0ervicesF=ocumentsFmakingconnections

usingatheoryofchangetodevelopplan-L22-L2L.pdf @etrieved 18th May, 1263

'$P!/ et al "1269%. 'heory of *hangeD 'echnical papers, $ series of papers to support

=evelopment

7500 *. "6883%, /ew approaches to 5valuating comprehensive community initiativesD 'heory,

methods and concepts. ol. 6C1,

www.7ikipedia.com @etrieved on 1Nth may 1263 at 66:99

www.theory of change.org @etrieved on 1N may 1263 at 69:61

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http://www.dochas.ie/Shared/Files/4/Theory_of_Change_Tool_Manual.pdf

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http://www.dochas.ie/Shared/Files/4/Theory_of_Change_Tool_Manual.pdf

