Probabilidad Fuerte El Niño 2015

8/18/2019 Probabilidad Fuerte El Niño 2015

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90 % de Probabilidad del Desarrollo de un fuerte El Niño Página1 de 8

Snow Report

There's a 90 Percent Chance We're Getting a Strong El NiñoThursday !ugust "# $0" by&i'hael S'hrant(

N)!!The weather e*perts ha+e spo,en- This winter is going to ha+e a strong El Niño . /n fa't a''ording to the fore'astreleased Thursday there s a 90 per'ent 'han'e that El Niño will persist through the winter e+en ri+alingstrong e+ents in "91$21# "93$23# and "991293. &ore to the point for s,iers and riders ishow snowfall faredduring those strong El Niño winters. /n his end of the season ta,e after the 97 98 season Tony 4ro',er 5estsnow.net 'o6pared El Niño to flipping a biased 'oin- !ll the rando6ness of weather is still there but th'han'es of 'ertain e+ents are in'reased. 7or whate+er we 'an learn about El Niño snowfall fro6 the past 4urbedS,i is ta!ing a loo! "ac! at what the 91293 e+ent 6eant for popular resorts.

The 1997 El Niño was a re'ord e+ent wrea,ed ha+o' around the world but 6aybe surprisingly the effe't snowfall at North !6eri'an resorts was #rett$ regional and not e+en that signifi'ant throughout the entire 'ourseof the season.

&u'h li,e this year it was So%th & erica s s,i season that benefitted the 6ost fro6 the "991 El Niño. /t waslittle later this year but 4hile and !rgentina loo, li,e they re going toend with a6a(ing seasons .

!''ording to 4ro',er only California saw signifi'antly abo+e a+erage snowfall during the "991293 season. !nd this year s El Niño tra',s "991293 'losely it 6ight be worth 'he',ing out so6e of the s6aller s,i areas inSouthern 4alifornia li,eSnow S% it and (ear )o%ntain along with &a66oth.

North & erican resort snow totals*

)a oth* 8$ in'hes " per'ent of nor6al

&l$es!a* 1 in'hes "80 per'ent of nor6al

Whistler* #98 in'hes 93 per'ent of nor6al

http://ski.curbed.com/tags/snow-reporthttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/theres-a-90-percent-chance-were-getting-a-strong-el-nino.phphttp://ski.curbed.com/authors/michael-schrantzhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtmlhttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/http://bestsnow.net/http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.htmlhttp://bestsnow.net/seas83.htmhttps://www.yahoo.com/travel/el-nino-bringing-snow-to-chile-ski-resorts-123993975997.htmlhttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/chile-feet-of-snow-photos.phphttp://bestsnow.net/summ98.htmhttp://ski.curbed.com/tags/snow-reporthttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/theres-a-90-percent-chance-were-getting-a-strong-el-nino.phphttp://ski.curbed.com/authors/michael-schrantzhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtmlhttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/http://bestsnow.net/http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.htmlhttp://bestsnow.net/seas83.htmhttps://www.yahoo.com/travel/el-nino-bringing-snow-to-chile-ski-resorts-123993975997.htmlhttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/chile-feet-of-snow-photos.phphttp://bestsnow.net/summ98.htm


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90 % de Probabilidad del Desarrollo de un fuerte El Niño Página+ de 8

Grand Targhee* 81$ in'hes "0$ per'ent of nor6al

(ig S!$* $#0 in'hes 39 per'ent of nor6al

&lta* 9 in'hes ""8 per'ent of nor6al

,ail* ##9 in'hes 9# per'ent of nor6al&s#en -ighlands* $8 in'hes "00 per'ent of nor6al

Taos* #"0 in'hes ""# per'ent of nor6al

S%garloaf* $ 8 in'hes "8 per'ent of nor6al

*Crocker's Bestsnow.net tallies snowfall from November through April for some resorts and May for others and comparisons are to the average he keeps . As his calculations were done in !""# the averages he's using obviously don't reflect the resorts' more recent snowfall history.

4li6ate- El Niño 'ould e*tend Pa'ifi' Northwest drought :Su66it 4ounty ;oi'e<

5estsnow.net )ffi'ial site4he',ing /n- =ow s the Snowfall at >our 7a+orite S,i !rea? :4urbed S,4hile @eeps Aetting Du6ped )n So 4he', )ut These Photos :4urbed S,i<

Cli ate* El Niño co%ld e.tend Pacific Northwest dro%ght

Posted on !ugust "# $0" by 5ob 5erwynNOAA updates seasonal outlook; El Niño likely to persist into spring

Bar6er than a+erage sea surfa'e te6peratures pre+ail a'ross 6ost of the eastern and 'entral Pa'ifi' )'ean asEl Niño 'ontinues to strengthen.

http://bestsnow.net/seas98.htmhttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/http://bestsnow.net/http://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/01/checking-in-hows-the-snowfall-at-your-favorite-ski-area.phphttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/chile-feet-of-snow-photos.phphttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/https://summitvoice.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/anomnight-current-small.gifhttp://bestsnow.net/seas98.htmhttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/http://bestsnow.net/http://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/01/checking-in-hows-the-snowfall-at-your-favorite-ski-area.phphttp://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/08/chile-feet-of-snow-photos.phphttp://summitcountyvoice.com/2015/08/13/climate-el-nino-could-extend-pacific-northwest-drought/


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90 % de Probabilidad del Desarrollo de un fuerte El Niño Página/ de 8

($ (o" (erw$n

7R/S4) C 7ederal weather e*perts today said they re 6ore sure than e+er that a strong El Niño will persistthrough the fall and winter but they are less 'ertain about how the 'y'li'al Pa'ifi' )'ean 'li6ate pattern will playout a'ross the .S. The !ug. "# El Niño update and diagnosti' dis'ussion is online here C it says there s a 9per'ent 'han'e El Niño will last through the winter and an 3 per'ent 'han'e it will last into early spring $0" .

During an El Niño sea surfa'e te6peratures are abo+e a+erage a'ross the eastern and 'entral eFuatorial Pa'ifi'and this year s e+ent 'ould be a6ong the strongest on re'ord dating ba', to "9 0 said &i,e =alpert deputydire'tor of N)!! s 4li6ate Predi'tion 4enter.

The pattern also fa+ors a 'ontinuation of drought 'onditions in the Pa'ifi' Northwest a''ording to N)!! s El Niñoe*perts.

Sea surfa'e te6peratures in the o'ean region used to assess El Niño strength 'ould soar to $ degrees 4elsiusabo+e a+erage putting this year s e+ent on par with "91$2 1# "93$2 3# and "9912 93 =alpert said.

/n general the pattern suggests abo+e a+erage winter pre'ipitation a'ross the southern tier of states in'ludingSouthern 4alifornia. Rain and snow 'ould be below a+erage in the Areat Ga,es region as well as the NorthernRo',ies in'luding the i6portant pper 4olorado Ri+er 5asin whi'h is a 'riti'al water sour'e area for 6u'h of theSouthwest but the lin,s between El Niño and snowpa', in the 6ountain Best are not all that strong the N)!!e*perts said during a telephone press 'onferen'e.

H/t s i6portant to re6e6ber that Iust be'ause so6ething is fa+ored it s not guaranteed J =alpert said referrinspe'ulation that an El Niño2fueled winter 'ould be a drought2buster for 4alifornia. )ne winter of abo+e2a+erapre'ipitation is unli,ely to erase four years of drought he added.

El Niño tends to bring abo+e2a+erage pre'ipitation to Southern 4alifornia but doesn t ha+e 6u'h of a sig

a'ross the northern part of the state where 6ost of the big reser+oirs are lo'ated said @e+in Berner dire'tor oN)!! s western region 'li6ate ser+i'es.

HThe 'orrelation between El Niño and pre'ipitation are far fro6 perfe't J Berner said des'ribing drier2thaa+erage 'onditions during so6e El Niño years in'luding $00$ whi'h brought a bitter drought to 4olorado another parts of the Best.

Berner said it s also diffi'ult to dis'ern at this point how El Niño will affe't winter te6peratures in the Best. /n the'onte*t of global war6ing and with a pool of +ery war6 water off the Best 4oast there are so6e 'on'erns thatwinter 6oisture will 'o6e in the for6 of rain rather than 6ore benefi'ial snow that a''u6ulates and runs off gradually in the spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html


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90 % de Probabilidad del Desarrollo de un fuerte El Niño Página de 8

ederal e.#erts* This El Nino a$ "e historicall$ strong

.

7/GE 2 /n this Kune $ "993 file photo a 4altrans bulldo(er terra'es a sliding hillside below the 'onde6ned ho6abo+e Pa'ifi' 4oast =ighway near Gas 7lores 4anyon Road in &alibu 4alif. The ho6e and at least one other at

the top of the slide was s'heduled for de6olition. 7ederal 6eteorologists said Thursday that the 'urrent El Nino isalready the se'ond strongest on re'ord for this ti6e of year and 'ould go down as one of the 6ost potent weather'hangers of the past years. The National )'eani' !t6ospheri' !d6inistration re'orded unusual war6th in thePa'ifi' )'ean the last three 6onths. El Nino is a heating of the eFuatorial Pa'ifi' that 'hanges weather worldwide6ostly affe'ting the nited States in winter. L!P PhotoMReed Sa*on 7ile

B!S=/NAT)N L!P C The 'urrent El Niño ni',na6ed 5ru'e Gee is already the se'ond strongest on re'ord forthis ti6e of year and 'ould be one of the 6ost potent weather 'hangers of the past years federal6eteorologists say.

5ut 4alifornia and other drought stru', areas better not 'ount on El Niño res'uing the6 li,e in a 5ru'e Gee a'tion6o+ie e*perts say.

O! big El Niño guarantees nothing O said &i,e =alper deputy dire'tor of the National )'eani' !t6ospheri' !d6inistration s 4li6ate Predi'tion 4enter. O!t this point there s no 'ause for reIoi'ing that El Nino is here to sa+ethe day.O

E+ery few years the winds shift and the water in the Pa'ifi' )'ean gets war6er than usual. The resulting El NinoLehl NEEN 2yoh 'hanges weather worldwide 6ostly affe'ting the nited States in winter.

/n addition to 4alifornia El Niño often brings hea+y winter rain to 6u'h of the southern and eastern .S.

/t s also li,ely to 6a,e the northern winters war6er and southeastern .S. winters a bit 'ooler but not 6u'h=alpert said. The 6iddle of the .S. usually doesn t get too 6u'h of an El Nino effe't he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/federal-experts-el-nino-may-historically-strong-180902801.html


5/8


4alifornia s state 'li6atologist &i'hael !nderson noted that only half the ti6e when there ha+e been big El Niñohas there been 6eaningfully hea+y rains. The state would need " ti6es its nor6al rainfall to get out of thise*tended drought and that s unli,ely =alpert said Thursday.

Still this El Niño is shaping up to be up there with the re'ord2setters be'ause of in'redible war6th in the ,ey parof the Pa'ifi' in the last three 6onths =alpert said. =e said the 'urrent El Nino li,ely will ri+al ones in "9912"993"93$23# and "91$21#.

N!S! o'eanographer 5ill Pat(ert said satellite 6easure6ents show this El Niño to be 'urrently 6ore powerfulthan "991293 whi'h often is thought of as the ,ing. 5ut that one started wea,er and finished stronger he said.

This El Niño is so strong a N)!! blog unoffi'ially na6ed it the O5ru'e GeeO of El Niños after the late 6o+ie a'tionhero. The 4alifornia2based Pat(ert who points out that 6udslides and other 6ayhe6 happens 'o6pares it toAod(illa.

E'ono6i' studies fa+or the hero the6e showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the nited States. Droughts and !tlanti' hurri'anes are redu'ed. 4alifornia 6udslides notwithstanding the .S. e'ono6y benefited by nearly Q$$billion fro6 that "991293 El Nino a''ording to a study.

El Niño does tend to 'ause proble6s elsewhere in the world. !nd while El Nino often puts a big da6per on the !tlanti' hurri'ane season that 6eans 6ore stor6s in the Pa'ifi' su'h as =awaii =alpert said. So far this yeartropi'al 'y'lone a'ti+ity in the Pa'ifi' is far higher than nor6al.

)nline-

N)!! s El Nino page- http-MMwww.'p'.n'ep.noaa.go+Mprodu'tsMpre'ipM4Blin,M&K)Menso.sht6l

N!S! s El Nino page- http-MMseale+el.Ipl.nasa.go+Melnino$0" Minde*.ht6l

Pana a declares dro%ght e ergenc$

By $uan $os% &odr gue( August !) ) !+ ,-)) AM

http://news.yahoo.com/panama-declares-drought-emergency-102212199.html


6/8


.

Pana6a 4ity L!7P 2 Pana6a s go+ern6ent has de'lared a state of e6ergen'y as it fa'es a drought that haspro6pted water restri'tions depleted reser+oirs and affe'ted shipping through its bustling 'anal. The go+ern6ent bla6ed the El Niño weather pheno6enon for the 6aIor drought. The state of e6ergen'yde'lared Tuesday also sets up a go+ern6ent board tas,ed with rushing to deli+er a water se'urity plan in under four 6onths.

OEl NiñoO refers to the abnor6al war6ing of surfa'e waters in the tropi'al se'tions of the Pa'ifi' )'ean e+erythree to fi+e years that 'an ha+e wide2ranging i6pa'ts on regional 'li6ate.

4li6atologists began obser+ing the 6ost re'ent El Nino se+eral 6onths ago and so6e fear that be'ause of global war6ing the pheno6enon will hit 6any areas with in'reasing freFuen'y and greater destru'ti+e potential in'o6ing years.

The go+ern6ent 6ust deli+er Oneeded steps ... to de+elop water reser+es to a+oid shortages for people'onsu6ption and for food se'urity in the 4entral !6eri'an nationO 'aused by the drought it warned.

7or now authorities ha+e barred use of drin,ing water to water lawns gardens and golf 'ourses.

=onduras has been hit by a 6aIor drought 'aused by OEl NiñoO too L!7P PhotoM)rlando Sierra /t also stopped issuing per6its that allow people to burn bran'hes brush and other natural waste for fear ofueling wildfires.

Gast wee, authorities said the 'anal whi'h 'onne'ts the Pa'ifi' and the !tlanti' through the 4aribbean wouldte6porarily li6it the si(e of ships using the waterway due to the drought.

The Pana6a 4anal !uthority said the 6a*i6u6 ship draft will be 'ut to "".39 6eters L#9 feet fro6 Septe6ber 3affe'ting "3. per'ent of +essels that nor6ally transit the lin, between the !tlanti' and Pa'ifi' o'eans.

! ship s draft is its depth in the water and 'hanges as the +essel be'o6es hea+ier or lighter.2 &ore 'anal restri'tions possible 2

The 'anal authority said further restri'tions 'ould be i6posed on Septe6ber " if weather 'onditions do not'hange.

The Pana6a 4anal handles fi+e per'ent of global shipping but 6ay need to upgrade its 'entury2old infrastru'turein the fa'e of ri+al bids for 6ar,et share fro6 Egypt s Sue( 4anal and a new Ni'araguan 'anal being planned by a4hinese 'o6pany.


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)riginally s'heduled for 'o6pletion last year a 6ore than fi+e2billion2dollar 'anal upgrade is now only e*pe'ted tbe ready in !pril $0" .

4anal ad6inistrator Korge uiIano said the 6onth of Kune and the first half of Kuly were the driest period in "years.

Bater le+els in the la,es that feed the 'anal ha+e dropped sharply as well.

Dry weather 'onditions in &ar'h "993 saw authorities ta,e si6ilar 6easures.

The e6ergen'y is 6eant to last until so6e two 6onths after the Borld &eteorologi'al )rgani(ation s data on ElNiño shows that te6peratures in the tropi'al eFuatorial Pa'ifi' ha+e de'reased to a target le+el.

&lertan so"re %n fen4 eno de 5El Niño5 +012 6%e 5 iene %$ f%erte

NeoMundo vie !/ ago ) !+

Lwww.neo6undo.'o6.ar M 7uente- ;o( de !6Uri'a

&eteorVlogos estadounidenses ad+ierten Fue el a'tual fenV6eno 'li6atVlogo 'ono'ido 'o6o OEl NiñoO podrW'on+ertirse en uno de los 6ás poderosos de la historia y generar tor6entas nun'a +istas en 4alifornia.

El fenV6eno de este año apodado OAod(illaO por su gran intensidad o O5ru'e GeeO 'o6o el hUroe de pelWde artes 6ar'iales pare'e en'a6inarse a ser uno de los 6ás fuertes a 'ausa del inusual 'alor en un área 'la+edel Pa'Wfi'o en los Xlti6os tres 6eses ri+ali(ando a los o'urridos en "9912"993 "93$2"93# y "91$2"91#.


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Probabilidad Fuerte El Niño 2015