Upload
sage
View
33
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
PROGNOZE SI SCENARII ALTERNATIVE DE DEZVOLTARE A ECONOMIEI ROMANESTI IN PERIOADA 2005-2014. Prezentare realizata de catre Dr.ec. Catalin GHINARARU - I.N.C.S.M.P.S.-. Premisele prognozelor de dezvoltare. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
PROGNOZE SI SCENARII ALTERNATIVE DE DEZVOLTARE A ECONOMIEI ROMANESTI IN PERIOADA 2005-2014Prezentare realizata de catreDr.ec. Catalin GHINARARU- I.N.C.S.M.P.S.-
Premisele prognozelor de dezvoltareEconomia romaneasca a intrat pe un trend ascendent practic ireversibil, accentuat de faptul ca, nivelul de dezvoltare de la care s-a pornit a fost foarte scazut, masa critica a tranzitiei a fost atinsa foarte tarziu, iar, numarul de ani consecutivi de crestere economica acumulati pana in prezent este extrem de redus;Rata inflatiei va continua si in viitor sa fie paramerul de baza, ancora in jurul careia vor gravita evolutiile macro-economice si de la care pornesc, de o maniera quasi-normativa, toate prognozele. Ea este o functie de predictibilitate a intregului mediu economic si de afaceri. Neatingerea tintelor inflationiste, putand crea indoieli asupra perspectivelor generale de dezvoltare economica (Mugur Isarescu)Veniturile romanilor vor creste pe masura ce ritmul cresterii economice se va accentua. Maximul va fi atins in jurul anilor 2009-2010. Salariul mediu va fi in jur de 500 de EURO in anul 2009 (Calin Popescu Tariceanu)Migratia pentru munca in strainatate se va mentine pentru perioada de prognoza la cote ridicate si va influenta piata domestica a muncii;Valuta romaneasca va intra intr-un proces de apreciere;
Scenariile alternative de prognoza propuseScenariul cu punct de plecare la momentu limediat urmator atingerii masei critice a progresului in tranzitie (1999);Scenariul ce foloseste drept baza evolutiile economiei romanesti pe ultimii zece ani (1995-2004);Scenariul ce porneste de la momentul atingerii masei critice a progresului in tranzitie dar nu ia in considerare in prognoza veniturilor salariale decat influenta variatiilor indicelui preturilor de consum (castigurile de productivitate sunt ignorate);Scenariul tip FMI, ce ia in considerare evolutiile economiei romanesti pe intreaga perioada a tranzitiei (1990-2004), pentru realizarea prognozelor;
Scenariul avand drept punct de plecare momentul atingerii masei criticePorneste de la premisa ca, toate evolutiile anterioare acestui meoment au de a face exclusiv cu procesul tranzitiei de la plan la piata, fiind in consecinta irepetabile si neputand fi deci luate in considerare pentru prognoza;Rata inflatiei este fixata normativ dar ia in considerare mentinerea unei expectatii de variatie anuala a preturilor de consum ceva mai ridicata decat cea prevazuta de BNR, mentinand astfel un stimul mai puternic pentru cresterea economica;Cresterea salariilor ia in considerare nu doar variatiile preturilor de consum, din ce in ce mai mici de la un an la altul ci si o parte din castigurile de productivitate ce vor apare in urmatorii ani;Crestrea pensiilor ia in considerare impactul recalcularii dar le si indexeaza apoi progresiv folosind un mecanism ce ia in considerare atat rata inflatiei cat si cresterile salariului mediu;Salariul minim ia in considerare inflatia dar este legat oarecum si de cresterile salariului mediue, preluand o parte din variatiile crescatoare ale acesteia, insa, cu o tendinta descendenta a raportului dintre cele doua praguri ale pietei muncii;Acest scenariu foloseste si o masura mai putin traditionala, respectiv Big Mac Index, calculand productivitatea ca numar de ore locrate pentru cumnpararea unui Big Mac si estimand apoi ocuparea pe baza acestei masuri non-standard a productivitatii muncii;Scenariu prin definitie de expansiune. Comporta riscul unei asa-numite credit bubble;
Chart1
79.7791453163
410.4787330973
310.8197276868
2.511.0288844433
2.311.1743023859
2.211.2882256617
2.111.382946765
2.111.4629796553
211.4330554912
211.5855225446
CPI%
GDP%
annual % change (Dec. to Dec.), of GDP and CPI
Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei, modelul "masei critice"
Sheet1
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.75668
GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.96
LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.62
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.26869
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955111597
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.2
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149
GDP/w237424392515257427773153311929182898319634953783496760867391
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.2
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.177
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203264
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.867.6
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.133
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.9
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.91
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.27
BMP72852832812860
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
GDP%-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.96
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Libidx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.62
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.26869
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955111597
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.2
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
GDP/w237424392515257427773153311929182898319634953783496760867391
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.2
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.177
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203264
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.867.6
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.133
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.9
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.91
BMP72852832812860
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.27
1834185918991906191219181940194819561966197719922002
Pop.Rom.3.053.865.956.57.77182115.817.419.121.522.821.6
1834185918991906191219181940194819561966197719922002
Pop.Rom.3.053.865.956.57.77182115.817.419.121.522.821.6
PopTer.Ro5.36.7899.79.54.44
Basarb19183.1
V.Reg19188.5
1966197719922002
Pop.Rom19.121.522.821.6
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
Pop.Rom.23.223.122.822.722.622.422.322.222.12221.921.821.7
199019921992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
AvGrowRo-5.6-8.9-10.7-6.25-4.22-2.3-1.44-2-2.4-2.48-2.09-1.45-0.9-0.57-0.13
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP%
%
Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB) in Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in 2017
Comparisons between alternative
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP
mld.USD
PIB nominal al Romaniei (in mld. USD) pentru perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in 2017
Outputs baseline Cata critical
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Libidx
Anii 1997 si 1998, marcati in rosu, reprezinta momentul atingerii "masei critice" a proceselor de reforma
valori ale Indicelui Liberalizarii (scala de la 0 la 10, valori cumulative)
Evolutia Indicelui Liberalizarii (masura a progresului in tranzitia de la "plan la piata") in perioada 1989-2004, pentru Romania si tendinta pana in 2007
Sheet20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
StbIdx
valori ale indicelui stabilitatii (scalaa de la 0 la 100)
Evolutia indicelui Stabilitatii Socio-Politice pentru Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Sheet21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP p.c.
PIB pe locuitor la paritatea puterii de cumparare (PPC) pentru Romania in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Baseline taking only CPI%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wshare
% salariilor in totalul veniturilor disponibile
Evolutia ponderii salariilor in totalul veniturilor disponibile ale populatiei pentru perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Outputs baseline with CPI%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP/w
PIB/pers.ocupata (USD)
Evolutia productivitatii muncii in Romania exprimata ca PIB/pers.ocupata (in USD), in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinte pana in anul 2017
Outputs IMF-like scenario
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Empl
mil. pers. ocupate
Evolutia ocuparii in Romania (mil. pers.ocupate) in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinte pana in anul 2017
Outputs 10 year scenario
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uerate
rata somajului (% someri in total populatie activa)
Evolutia ratei somajului in perioada 1989-2004 in Romania si tendinta pana in anul 2017
10yearsScenario
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CPI%
variatia % anuala a indicelui preturilor de consum
Evolutia ratei inflatiei in Romania in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
IMF-like scenario
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Avwage
salariul mediu brut (USD)
Evolutia salariului mediu brut in Romania (exprimat in USD) si tendinta pana in anul 2017
BASELINE CATA-Critical mass
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Avpens
pensia medie (USD)
Evolutia pensiei medii (exprimata in USD) pentru perioada 1990-2004, in Romania si tendinte pana in anul 2017
Sheet4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Agrempl
% pers. ocupate in agricultura in total populatie ocupata a Romaniei
Evolutia ocuparii in agricultura, exprimata ca % din ocuparea totala, in Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2012
Sheet5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OT
Importurile si exporturile raportate % la PIB in val. nominala, in mld.USD
Evolutia "deschiderii comerciale a Romaniei" (gradul de integrare a tarii in fluxurile comerciale internationale) pentru perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Sheet6
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Prate
BMP
Rata saraciei ca% al celor aflati sub pragul de 50% din venitul median in totalul populatiei
"Premiul" pietei negre (rata profitului ilicit al acesteia datorita lipsurilor de pe piata) exprimat in procente
Evolutia ratei/incidentei saraciei (1989-2004) si "premiului" pietei negre (1989-1993), pentru Romania si tendinta ratei/incidentei saraciei pana in anul 2017
Sheet7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GiniIdx
Indicele Gini (al inegalitatii veniturilor;scala de la 0 la 1)
Evolutia inegalitatii veniturilor in Romania in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Sheet8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pop.Rom.
serie reconstituita de catre Dr. C. Ghinararu, dupa monografii statistice de sec. XX
populatia Romaniei (mil.loc.)
Seria "istorica" (evolutii seculare) a populatiei Romaniei (1834-2002;ani selectati si dupa 1912 recensaminte) si tendinta pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017
Sheet9
0
0
0
0
Pop.Rom
populatia Romaniei (mil.loc.)
Populatia Romaniei (serie semicentenara-recensaminte) si tendinta pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017
Sheet10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pop.Rom.
pop.Romaniei (mil.loc.)
Evolutia populatiei Romaniei (serie decenala 1990-2002) si tendinte pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017
Sheet11
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Pop.Rom.
PopTer.Ro
Basarb1918
V.Reg1918
serie statistica reconstruita de catre Dr.C. Ghinararu dupa monografii statistice de arhiva
populatia Romaniei si a teritoriilor locuite de catre Romani (mil.loc.)
Seria istorica (1834-2002) a evolutiei populatiei Romaniei si teritoriilor locuite de catre Romani, aflate astazi in granitele Romaniei si Rep.Moldova
Sheet12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
AvGrowRo
variatii procentuale medii ale PIB obtinute prin adaugarea succesiva a valorilor anuale
Media cresterii economice pentru Romania in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017
Sheet13
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Base case scenario7543.83.63.33.132.82.7
Best case scenario7432.52.32.22.12.122
Worst case scenario7.56.65.75.76432.82.82.5
The extremely worst cas8.27.887.765.5543.84
The best ever case6.93.82.521.81.81.922.12
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario9.710.410.81111.111.211.311.411.411.5
10 years scenario6.376.496.566.616.666.76.736.766.786.8
IMF like scenario3.74.283.974.95.55.35.26.36.15.6
Slow "crtical mass"scen.9.779.59.71111.811.811.111.111.211.3
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario35538443549556963872079811421389
10 years scenario355453556662775779898114812791415
IMF like scenario3553043243503834084294346361081
Slow "crtical mass"scen.250268286304310316335385424469
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario119132152176206236270302290423
10 years scenario157164163229240240251276289302
IMF like scenario119121129140153163171173254432
Slow "crtical mass"scen.110133161195232274280281313452
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario139143151160171181193205257294
10 years scenario139153169185202202220258277298
IMF like scenario139131134138143147150151181248
Slow "crtical mass"scen.137119131146154161155159161164
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario10.410.310.29.89.89.19.338.899.2
10 years scenario10.410.410.410.510.49.149.378.959.1210.2
IMF like scenario10.410.410.511.111.211.211.211.310.911.2
Slow "crtical mass"scen.10.410.310.29.889.929.179.478.969.19.46
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
"Critical mass" scenario10.3109.879.788.178.386.66.67.57.7
10 years scenario10.310.410.410.59.919.837.027.597.888.1
IMF like scenario10.310.510.710.912.31212.912.911.811.4
Slow "crtical mass"scen.10.3109.949.878.28.56.96.97.67.8
Sheet13
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Base case scenario
Best case scenario
Worst case scenario
The extremely worst cas
The best ever case
Rata inflatiei (variatia % anuala a IPC/CPI)
Evolutiile proiectate normativ ale variabilei ancora (rata inflatiei) pentru cele 5 variante ale scenariilor de prognoza
Sheet14
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
variatii % anuale ale PIB
Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB) in cele patru scenarii de prognoza
Sheet15
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
USD
Evolutia estimata a salariului mediu (in USD) pentru in cele patru scenarii alterantive de prognoza
Sheet16
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
USD
Evolutia salariului minim pe economie (in USD) pentru cele patru scenarii alternative de prognoza
Outputs population projections
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
mil.pers. ocupate
Evolutia ocuparii (pop.ocupate-mil.pers.) pentru cele patru scenarii alternative de prognoza
Sheet17
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
% din pop.activa (met.ILO)
Evolutia ratei somajului (%) pentru cele scenarii alternative de prognoza
Sheet3
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
"Critical mass" scenario
10 years scenario
IMF like scenario
Slow "crtical mass"scen.
USD
Evolutia pensiei medii in USD, in cele patru scenarii de prognoza
6.9355.6533870339
3.8384.4437775129
2.5435.1402526056
2492.1628681364
1.8561.1995375507
1.8620.7745194018
1.9684.9643531067
2739.9829193914
2.1942.8058656467
21024.3636666058
CPI%
Avwage
Av.wage in USD
CPI in % (YoY, Dec.)
CPI% and Avwage in USD
77664.4387033859
47986.5168638196
38342.810691167
2.58462.7797890371
2.38811.6711581018
2.28901.9728047445
2.19111.9392173625
2.19194.8805745716
29303.34019955
29380.1981476802
CPI%
GDP/w
CPI% and Labor productivity (GDP/worker in USD)
79.7791453163
410.4787330973
310.8197276868
2.511.0288844433
2.311.1743023859
2.211.2882256617
2.111.382946765
2.111.4629796553
211.4330554912
211.5855225446
CPI%
GDP%
annual % change (Dec. to Dec.), of GDP and CPI
Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei, modelul "masei critice"
355.9143870339119.3233.5249162009
384.6495103115132.62340304934.4790255788
435.8910404408152.703180329935.0324200689
495.0349917218176.887128694135.7322475486
569.7958442713206.605822139136.2596224975
638.9800343417236.867414747637.0696112581
720.4435143514270.717093470137.5764495172
798.0754730573302.228894006237.8697133554
1142.317063374290.016966097425.3884823572
1389.2438442271423.000485010330.4482533263
Avwage
Avpens
Avp/Avs%
Average pension & average salary in USD
Average pension to average salary ratio (%)
Salariul mediu si pensia medie, exprimate in USD si raportul dintre salariul mediu si pensia media (%), in modelul masei critice
355.9143870339139.357158055139.1546852648
384.6495103115143.637426546737.3424176286
435.8910404408151.313656066134.7136421784
495.0349917218160.180248758332.3573588609
569.7958442713171.392376640730.0796115598
638.9800343417181.769005151328.4467425244
720.4435143514193.987527152726.9261258223
798.0754730573205.632320958625.76602438
1142.317063374257.267559506122.5215544576
1389.2438442271294.306576634121.1846593999
Avwage
Minwage
Min/Aw%
Average & min. wage in USD
%ratio of min. to av. wage
Salariul mediu si salariul minim exprimate in USD si raportul dintre acestea (%), in modelul "masei critice"
355.9143870339139.35715805517664.4387033859
384.6495103115143.63742654677986.5168638196
435.8910404408151.31365606618342.810691167
495.0349917218160.18024875838462.7797890371
569.7958442713171.39237664078811.6711581018
638.9800343417181.76900515138901.9728047445
720.4435143514193.98752715279111.9392173625
798.0754730573205.63232095869194.8805745716
1142.317063374257.26755950619303.34019955
1389.2438442271294.30657663419380.1981476802
Avwage
Minwage
GDP/w
Average and min. wage in USD
Labour productivity as GDP/worker in USD
Average wage, min.wage and lab.productivity (GDP/W)
22512.0735343.949916861.54043
2399836956.9217470.544
25618.739196.61118471.0827
27460.18541876.78212519702.6827375
29447.27344848.19677921087.1921953
31623.50248130.97004422623.4533308
33929.72151607.10564124249.5715987
36360.47155304.27639125986.8286237
38945.7859197.585627807.28692
41836.2963591.160829871.11106
Exrat$
ExratEUR
BM-PPP
Exchange rate, ROL per USD and EURO
Big Mac implicit PPP of the USD as against the ROL (in ROL)
Cursul de schim prognozate LEU/USD si LEU/EURO precum si paritatea implicita a puterii de cumparare a USD la standardul Big Mac, in modelul "masei critice"
25.11.1911459594
27.21.1419711921
27.91.0654388521
28.251.0006995358
28.390.930494408
28.460.8901966085
28.530.8462886055
28.530.8186979357
28.60.6120492339
28.60.5406140341
Apr/Depr%
wh/bm-avs
appreciation/depreciation rate of the ROL as against the USD in %
hours worked for a Big Mac
Gradul de apreciere/depreciere al valutei nationale fata de USD (la standardul Big Mac) si productivitatea muncii exprimata ca nr.de ore de munca necsare in vederea cumparari unui Big Mac
9952850.383973438.9913073585
10264619.9489168.9652447318
10174871.67757438.9246825916
10239083.33528698.890370754
10421207.90799178.8531620362
10484685.65120248.8318042025
10538363.99362238.8085329609
10692157.35240598.7939099059
10743869.0357628.684386094
10936326.98852958.6465254381
EmpbyPro
EbyPBM
Employment in persons using the traditional measure (GDP/w)
Employment by productivity in mil.pers. using the measure "hours worked for the purchase of a Big Mac"
Ocuparea (in mil.pers.) masurata prin intermedul productivitatii muncii, exprimata ca PIB/lucrator (scala din dreapta) sau ca ore de munca pentru cumpararea unui Big MAC (scala din stanga)
10.423937538810.368010824230.8676372533
10.320986577610.042468624730.1016416237
10.26751792119.873394884729.1552416074
9.84209953179.781124639828.862958136
9.88567212498.172857460128.1727732522
9.10620824938.381143286428.1216718841
9.33482018386.617188267727.4812845763
8.80111018796.620686561226.8379893944
9.00297967857.560486662826.5395061418
9.29676218187.715270258926.1852213467
Empl
Uerate
Agrempl
Employment in mil.pers and the unemployment rate (%)
Share of agriculture in total employment (as % of total)
Ocuparea (in mil.pers.) estimata folosind drept variabila explicativa cresterea economica, rata somajului si ponderea agriculturii in ocuparea totala
Regression of Employment on labour productivity as expressed by hours of work for a Big Mac (2005-14)ac (2005-14)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.7689497907
R Square0.5912837806
Adjusted R Square-1.25
Standard Error0.3335588128
Observations1
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression101.28768287360.128768287411.5734830684
Residual80.89009185290.1112614816
Total182.1777747266
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept0.89009185290.8900918529
X Variable 11.28768287361.2876828736
X Variable 20.53125059630.53125059591.00000000070.3465935068-0.69381626691.7563174595-0.69381626691.7563174595
X Variable 3-00
X Variable 400
X Variable 5-10.921148287927.6456524809
X Variable 6-00
X Variable 721779105490573314000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002177910549057331400000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
X Variable 8254326008511628600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000-254326008511628600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
X Variable 98.36225209660.421580406119.83548565010.00000004357.3900853089.33441888517.3900853089.3344188851
X Variable 101.84140511630.5412741733.40198222630.00933307620.59322382783.08958640470.59322382783.0895864047
Regression of Employment on Labour productivity expressed as hours of work for a Big Mac (2005-2014)Mac (1997-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.8558690704
R Square0.7325118656
Adjusted R Square-1.3333333333
Standard Error0.4555504483
Observations1
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression83.40984273440.426230341816.430901518
Residual61.24515726560.2075262109
Total144.655
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept0.34375029820.6054469410.000000856.24200123297.92425581916.24199877637.9242533624
X Variable 100
X Variable 200
X Variable 3-13.27830267521.3853049414
X Variable 410317041599884116000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001031704159988411600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
X Variable 5-00
X Variable 60-0
X Variable 77.0831285260.77958396979.08578010970.00009978695.17555387658.99070317555.17555387658.9907031755
X Variable 81.39507023850.344163954.05350484370.00669951360.55293077452.23720970240.55293077452.2372097024
19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322784.887028212986.651107508191.828257155493.334386533396.024932160398.313109939999.9538686991102.5849141602
GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.989.77914531639.50314612559.704877828611.096064910111.862840558811.814554903711.101548794611.188543404711.265849078111.3325511931
LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.451245117970.010096982470.110077071370.138017673771.154601237270.582965041770.877649418571.0213606465
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111637.738402740411874.6375376112454.588563919512536.047109946212704.023998012612933.88180586213114.113272744913282.8866005998
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079772.783108884573.330472092175.082596610375.504411297875.012941853675.296069763176.444020302377.0067801589
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37432.52.32.22.12.122
GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968342.8106911678462.77978903718811.67115810188901.97280474459111.93921736259194.88057457169303.340199559380.1981476802
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.320986577610.28881486769.88127546669.92637731989.17850924919.47032232958.9604181139.10629268089.464677334
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.04246862479.94073815879.87688046928.21405767798.53679652546.97079784886.93584595427.67287411057.8159105507
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253250.3666466708268.0485802676286.2253676553304.4018525284310.6983496005316.0978953285335.1241579245385.9637244304424.345776685469.6658811796
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876110.347929717133.3821497069161.1043482312195.8214131275232.4425902228274.934560124280.0120811735281.4040083444313.8113745868452.7406759249
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.155241607428.86295813628.172773252228.121671884127.481284576326.837989394426.539506141826.1852213467
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.280895848381.26643487281.980490977183.345414254585.080871661484.620646377887.620401626589.7073022733
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639964.20471967923.61720882743.20873711133.83183643623.6131040573.42738691823.26046073133.1156661332
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24974282010.24765917390.24621050180.24114979750.23997573920.23637069090.23527325090.2343263402
Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9137119.7767076889131.9902929035146.6697674716154.2132014641161.444862293155.9923572304159.0152089384161.8283522156164.4626511027
Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.072399825618.727460.18529447.27331623.50233929.72136360.47138945.7841836.29
ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949936956.9239196.61141876.78212544848.19677948130.97004451607.10564155304.27639159197.585663591.1608
BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661
BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317470.54418471.082719702.682737521087.192195322623.453330824249.571598725986.828623727807.2869229871.11106
Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.127.227.928.2528.3928.4628.5328.5328.628.6
BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228859893.9165843267600.65317628777291.26005728488708.5457675783102204.617705355117540.098496059134984.683261516154710.846091066178527.981072307
PoPToT
Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691754.719748745244.68470139646.114114197748.182941809849.634380633951.074323707646.547631241141.199521839338.135963901835.0169466621
wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.69330056391.63872779851.62255097641.62739248231.7064520861.79949904081.81933508141.69286049691.64760514171.5991042763
Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691744.07453276449.760438788356.285838516364.329901904774.812946551486.977662359483.554728763172.909444730873.951808131296.3963306825
US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8
EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610174871.677574310239083.335286910421207.907991710484685.651202410538363.993622310692157.352405910743869.03576210936326.9885295
EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260879.25744929899.22852573329.21995201759.22251801569.26441960569.31373449169.32424759319.25721606349.23323072519.2075252665
9.77914531637
9.50314612554
9.70487782863
11.09606491012.5
11.86284055882.3
11.81455490372.2
11.10154879462.1
11.18854340472.1
11.26584907812
11.33255119312
GDP%
CPI%
Rata inflatiei (%)
Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)
Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei in scenariul "de la masa critica", varianta "incetinita"
7250.3666466708110.347929717137
4268.0485802676133.3821497069119.7767076889
3286.2253676553161.1043482312131.9902929035
2.5304.4018525284195.8214131275146.6697674716
2.3310.6983496005232.4425902228154.2132014641
2.2316.0978953285274.934560124161.444862293
2.1335.1241579245280.0120811735155.9923572304
2.1385.9637244304281.4040083444159.0152089384
2424.345776685313.8113745868161.8283522156
2469.6658811796452.7406759249164.4626511027
CPI%
Avwage
Avpens
Minwage
Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim (in USD)
Rata inflatiei (%)
Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim in USD;scenariul de la "masa critica", varianta "incetinita"
9.7791453163710.423937538810.3680108242
9.5031461255410.320986577610.0424686247
9.7048778286310.28881486769.9407381587
11.09606491012.59.88127546669.8768804692
11.86284055882.39.92637731988.2140576779
11.81455490372.29.17850924918.5367965254
11.10154879462.19.47032232956.9707978488
11.18854340472.18.9604181136.9358459542
11.265849078129.10629268087.6728741105
11.332551193129.4646773347.8159105507
GDP%
CPI%
Empl
Uerate
Ocuparea in mil.pers., rata somajului in % si cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)
Rata inflatiei (%)
Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea si rata somajului
3.77053551327
4.28918931375
3.97001953994
4.93721121813.8
5.59310669583.6
5.328279043.3
5.24514725173.1
6.39071539043
6.11463681332.8
5.66463824882.7
GDP%
CPI%
Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei in asa-numitul "IMF-like scenario" de dezvoltare a economiei romanesti
7355.9143870339119.32139.3571580551
5304.6872596975121.874903879131.6530889546
4324.1796369253129.6718547701134.5669455388
3.8350.1919743823140.0767897529138.4667961573
3.6383.767963103153.5071852412143.5011944654
3.3408.1152423088163.2460969235147.1502863463
3.1429.4933876043171.7973550417150.3550081406
3434.9071694706173.9628677882151.1660754206
2.8636.0070209863254.4028083945181.329053148
2.71081.6753322039432.6701328816248.1782998306
CPI%
Avwage
Avpens
Minwage
Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim in USD
Rata inflatiei (%)
Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie, salariul minim (in USD) in asa-numitul "IMF-like scenario" de dezvoltare a economiei romanesti
3.7705355132710.423937538810.3680108242
4.2891893137510.4937221810.5886774923
3.9700195399410.549688487410.7656490778
4.93721121813.811.167360680910.9291725251
5.59310669583.611.224322981212.3485792458
5.328279043.311.26092951712.0538978041
5.24514725173.111.266810110212.9591151571
6.3907153904311.31880177612.9949364193
6.11463681332.810.9175159211.8146691174
5.66463824882.711.286406744311.4417230981
GDP%
CPI%
Empl
Uerate
Rata inflatiei (%), ocuparea (mil.pers.) si rata somajului (%)
Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)
Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea si rata somajului in "IMF-like scenario"
6.37452150336.9
6.48976090913.8
6.54699850652.5
6.58048371532
6.60436403291.8
6.62368360271.8
6.64119137551.9
6.65807165182
6.674428532.1
6.69034260072
GDP%
CPI%
Rata inflatiei(variatii % anuale la Decembrie)
Cresterea economica (variatii % anuale)
Rata inflatiei si cresterea economica in scenariul de evolutie "pe zece ani" al economiei romanesti
6.9355.6533870339157.244139.3170080551
3.8449.3515966954162.966153.3407395043
2.5548.625428437160.925168.2188142656
2651.3963146138225.2796314614183.6294471921
1.8761.3018264394235.9561826439200.1132739659
1.8766.0605079396236.432050794200.8270761909
1.9883.5074958543248.3337495854218.4451243781
21131.8103265878273.3210326588255.6915489882
2.11263.2121495618286.6182149562275.4028224343
21397.3746667517299.8774666752295.5262000128
CPI%
Avwage
Avpens
Minwage
Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim exprimate in USD
Rata inflatiei (%)
Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim (in USD), in scenariul de evolutie "pe 10 ani" al economiei romanesti
6.37452150336.910.423937538810.3680108242
6.48976090913.810.447031143310.4410353276
6.54699850652.510.459412378210.4801861464
6.5804837153210.513903194210.5035578997
6.60436403291.810.45558011999.935772753
6.62368360271.89.17517816979.8607295766
6.64119137551.99.35203964797.0954623945
6.658071651828.91686222097.554176828
6.674428532.19.04638133667.7798509743
6.6903426007210.0743180557.9827045777
GDP%
CPI%
Empl
Uerate
Rata inflatiei (%), ocuparea (mil.pers.) si rata somajului(%)
Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)
Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea (in mil.pers.) si rata somajului in scenariul de evolutie "pe 10 ani" al economiei romanesti
19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.905743717684.663237877286.130569300190.590159336291.704936246693.613298640894.981634443396.168333632297.5401917421
GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.986.37452150336.48976090916.54699850656.58048371536.60436403296.62368360276.64119137556.65807165186.674428536.6903426007
LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.333176676469.442802006169.954809585970.011016668769.995930933770.58373120270.248035441870.407146784670.4861874215
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611450.829667016711623.86836458811836.490358429312341.364086219512335.556209460712446.621042952812573.290911720112683.573279601912785.9609288854
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.92241674472.709174621173.165633286574.733639830975.05412512674.490568862874.723632280375.651852085376.0105063954
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.36.93.82.521.81.81.922.12
GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597982.35966953988327.54284370428427.63146138418738.58264394058807.25079396498970.64958543059039.03265878079110.41495618549177.4666751701
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.447031143310.459412378210.513903194210.45558011999.17517816979.35203964798.91686222099.046381336610.074318055
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.441035327610.480186146410.50355789979.9357727539.86072957667.09546239457.5541768287.77985097437.9827045777
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.6533870339449.3515966954548.625428437651.3963146138761.3018264394766.0605079396883.50749585431131.81032658781263.21214956181397.3746667517
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876157.244162.966160.925225.2796314614235.9561826439236.432050794248.3337495854273.3210326588286.6182149562299.8774666752
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.111528641929.19271354728.948878138428.342779017528.364206757127.87046255627.419071558727.294040938127.0678617327
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.575605724581.228558000781.147532145381.758336813982.838517752484.106281257883.51059016584.758289585785.2960677607
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.18996202864.27983229383.78930585193.46455483174.10590746383.92946481723.76487929953.60955336093.4616497476
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25322980830.25000158090.24826168520.24710979430.24256583740.24162941970.23850340690.23751696280.2365875819
Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3170080551153.3407395043168.2188142656183.6294471921200.1132739659200.8270761909218.4451243781255.6915489882275.4028224343295.5262000128
Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.06923997.99825618.69527460.1829447.26831623.49833929.71936360.4738945.78141836.29
ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635321.43626136908.92092439068.50987541739.473644700.95282448004.46996451539.24316155267.914459236.53290163591.1608
BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661
BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816845.781232717436.945346818381.413662519606.5685220984.123176822534.904674824202.068562725961.3755827834.549680729871.11106
Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.1727.3428.2528.628.7428.7428.6728.628.5328.6
BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454176.032444363259778.730993527567272.481536154176914.215515737688274.9601740034101804.586755063117309.846530263134852.471243973154862.527367517178527.981072307
PoPToT
Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.172130263434.124890315730.661869746928.190126820226.285668445326.215563145424.724761861522.591377988121.801787018121.1486730828
wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.1909060570.97565900480.84239771410.75678167230.69302406810.73961725030.68874210410.57672454740.55401598940.5374683948
Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691744.212709827236.266923540229.332399057534.584112069330.993775983430.863365014128.107712809524.14901386222.689634124821.4600617723
US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8
EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310260843.548574210166652.933068210220020.855766610366687.943274210412436.115646510435509.463306210507942.390390210555867.553198610628226.1973201
EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99118021028.87709927268.80647078858.76109428638.72730275618.75199714278.72503331528.66566401018.65362847448.6448582492
19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322785.539497593887.938189892295.169903770897.8677831441103.5256122557111.1278338922115.9541329147128.7857877673
GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.983.77053551324.28918931373.97001953994.93721121815.59310669585.328279045.24514725176.39071539046.11463681335.6646382488
LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.477410518570.160992596170.411455473370.667388181173.132715664772.088309477173.535435582474.4275638731
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111679.513925553611969.253299802812765.286554444213254.016032883213725.122327934414792.614639144515658.332610220616578.9923155498
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079773.020869121973.758540084176.017674116676.726537015876.518926184177.037896785679.200353350781.206931438
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37543.83.63.33.132.82.7
GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968390.20053769468551.57334469899003.67383880189154.90741578089517.65653397669669.01402055719967.767069936610132.6754140162
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.4937221810.549688487411.167360680911.224322981211.26092951711.266810110211.31880177610.9175159211.2864067443
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.588677492310.765649077810.929172525112.348579245812.053897804112.959115157112.994936419311.814669117411.4417230981
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.9143870339304.6872596975324.1796369253350.1919743823383.767963103408.1152423088429.4933876043434.9071694706636.00702098631081.6753322039
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876119.32121.874903879129.6718547701140.0767897529153.5071852412163.2460969235171.7973550417173.9628677882254.4028083945432.6701328816
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.038400958728.645154635427.72596287727.447876106926.269260059624.577211826622.80736934921.2238339003
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.438533550781.558711800782.548513154684.852061721388.721253857590.1398182474100.9840965717112.6408394641
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639963.98496674853.19841691532.57012598933.14226553112.80325219962.51751313282.26723884292.0532319313
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24896345170.24617390050.24394562510.2374914290.23562105670.23030121330.22851909580.2269911885
Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3571580551131.6530889546134.5669455388138.4667961573143.5011944654147.1502863463150.3550081406151.1660754206181.329053148248.1782998306
Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.0723998.0125618.7127460.19829447.28631623.51333929.73136360.4838945.78841836.297
ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949937196.915539452.813442233.78452445231.03129648478.84542951946.41816155631.534459509.16406463884.025519
BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661
BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317638.5373518650.4208819952.579866821355.171807222866.962250324487.086862726215.9060828025.389044830076.1139133
Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.126.527.227.3427.4827.6927.8327.928.0428.11
BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228860469.84482625868256.996840832878271.576507872489835.8689999386103304.703340445118691.358732193136174.591746648155924.296520773179753.203175368
PoPToT
Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.154685264843.209253017541.509993291139.540253999737.392697739836.056062379335.007525722234.758239466328.510542677122.9438808894
wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.19114595941.45553280191.44649472781.4325404571.39909901091.40876915531.43349067081.51559294461.10790891180.6990997437
Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691733.5249162009404040404040404040
US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8
EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610195167.232237110283276.111608110570118.984174110690199.113907310877216.664221911493191.927943911632909.567520712709949.002134
EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99130735859.1314323859.12664220579.11924644229.10152247589.10664765239.11975005559.16326426068.94719172338.7305228642
19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322784.887028212986.651107508191.828257155493.334386533396.024932160398.313109939999.9538686991102.5849141602
GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.989.779145316310.478733097310.819727686811.028884443311.174302385911.288225661711.38294676511.462979655311.433055491211.5855225446
LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038
StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.451245117970.010096982470.110077071370.138017673771.154601237270.582965041770.877649418571.0213606465
GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111637.738402740411874.6375376112454.588563919512536.047109946212704.023998012612933.88180586213114.113272744913282.8866005998
Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079772.783108884573.330472092175.082596610375.504411297875.012941853675.296069763176.444020302377.0067801589
CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37432.52.32.22.12.122
GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968342.8106911678462.77978903718811.67115810188901.97280474459111.93921736259194.88057457169303.340199559380.1981476802
Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.320986577610.26751792119.84209953179.88567212499.10620824939.33482018388.80111018799.00297967859.2967621818
Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.04246862479.87339488479.78112463988.17285746018.38114328646.61718826776.62068656127.56048666287.7152702589
Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.9143870339384.6495103115435.8910404408495.0349917218569.7958442713638.9800343417720.4435143514798.07547305731142.3170633741389.2438442271
Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876119.32132.623403049152.7031803299176.8871286941206.6058221391236.8674147476270.7170934701302.2288940062290.0169660974423.0004850103
Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.155241607428.86295813628.172773252228.121671884127.481284576326.837989394426.539506141826.1852213467
OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.280895848381.26643487281.980490977183.345414254585.080871661484.620646377887.620401626589.7073022733
Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639964.20471967923.61720882743.20873711133.83183643623.6131040573.42738691823.26046073133.1156661332
GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24974282010.24765917390.24621050180.24114979750.23997573920.23637069090.23527325090.2343263402
Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3571580551143.6374265467151.3136560661160.1802487583171.3923766407181.7690051513193.9875271527205.6323209586257.2675595061294.3065766341
Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.072399825618.727460.18529447.27331623.50233929.72136360.47138945.7841836.29
ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949936956.9239196.61141876.78212544848.19677948130.97004451607.10564155304.27639159197.585663591.1608
BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661
BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317470.54418471.082719702.682737521087.192195322623.453330824249.571598725986.828623727807.2869229871.11106
Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.127.227.928.2528.3928.4628.5328.5328.628.6
BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228859893.9165843267600.65317628777291.26005728488708.5457675783102204.617705355117540.098496059134984.683261516154710.846091066178527.981072307
PoPToT
Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.154685264837.342417628634.713642178432.357358860930.079611559828.446742524426.926125822325.7660243822.521554457621.1846593999
wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.19114595941.14197119211.06543885211.00069953580.9304944080.89019660850.84628860550.81869793570.61204923390.5406140341
Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691733.524916200934.479025578835.032420068935.732247548636.259622497537.069611258137.576449517237.869713355425.388482357230.4482533263
US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8
EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610174871.677574310239083.335286910421207.907991710484685.651202410538363.993622310692157.352405910743869.03576210936326.9885295
EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99130735858.96524473188.92468259168.8903707548.85316203628.83180420258.80853296098.79390990598.6843860948.6465254381
SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression of population evolution on the GDP% annula variation for Romania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.6221684815
R Square0.3870936194
Adjusted R Square0.3399469747
Standard Error0.4329608056
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression11.53908423071.53908423078.21041713880.0132600328
Residual132.43691576930.1874550592
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept22.25281473280.1118181205199.0090214531022.011246416722.494383048922.011246416722.4943830489
X Variable 1-0.05388950390.0188070888-2.86538254670.0132600328-0.0945197411-0.0132592666-0.0945197411-0.0132592666
Regression of population evolution on the GDP% annual variation for Romania (1990-2004)n on the CPI% annual variation for Romania(1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.7017161927
R Square0.4924056152
Adjusted R Square0.4533598932
Standard Error0.3940124241
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression11.95780472581.957804725812.6110004130.0035482687
Residual132.01819527420.1552457903
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept21.82090853550.1601189042136.2794021152021.474992740222.166824330821.474992740222.1668243308
X Variable 10.00565839520.00159337693.55119703940.00354826870.00221611440.00910067590.00221611440.0091006759
Regression of population evolution on the GDP% annual variation for Romania (1990-2004)n on the Avwage evolution for Romania (1990-2004)0mania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.7180464608
R Square0.5155907198
Adjusted R Square0.4783284675
Standard Error0.3849087102
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression12.04998870212.049988702113.83681038450.0025712319
Residual131.92601129790.1481547152
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept23.46852110020.339750561169.0757390474022.734534778524.202507421922.734534778524.2025074219
X Variable 1-0.00857147690.0023042928-3.71978633590.0025712319-0.0135495979-0.0035933559-0.0135495979-0.0035933559
Rgression of the population evolution on the evolution of the GDP p.c. for Romania for the period (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.8721639524
R Square0.7606699598
Adjusted R Square0.7422599567
Standard Error0.2705516074
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression13.02442376033.024423760341.31829615060.0000224274
Residual130.95157623970.0731981723
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept23.19914847070.1619455159143.2527992296022.849286521723.549010419822.849286521723.5490104198
X Variable 1-0.00017569720.0000273334-6.42793093850.0000224274-0.0002347474-0.000116647-0.0002347474-0.000116647
Regression of the population evolution on the evolution of the OT for Romania for the period 1990-2004
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9772119478
R Square0.954943191
Adjusted R Square0.9514772826
Standard Error0.1173901688
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression13.79685412743.7968541274275.52464890430.0000000004
Residual130.17914587260.0137804517
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.21934900330.1218699737198.7310595066023.956064982624.48263302423.956064982624.482633024
X Variable 1-0.03585049410.0021598069-16.59893517380.0000000004-0.0405164722-0.0311845159-0.0405164722-0.0311845159
Regression of the popilation evolution on the share of wages in total disposable income for Romania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.7262423955
R Square0.527428017
Adjusted R Square0.491076326
Standard Error0.3801767002
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression12.09705379572.097053795714.50903665130.0021696257
Residual131.87894620430.1445343234
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept20.55014715260.459496904144.7231460506019.557464634721.542829670619.557464634721.5428296706
X Variable 10.02463528260.00646752713.80907293860.00216962570.01066304240.03860752280.01066304240.0386075228
Regression of the population evolution on the labor productivity (GDP/w) for Romania for the period (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.7906862399
R Square0.62518473
Adjusted R Square0.5963527861
Standard Error0.3385791026
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression12.48573448642.485734486421.68375234360.0004491334
Residual131.49026551360.1146358087
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept23.29420563660.238681337197.5954212588022.778566056523.809845216622.778566056523.8098452166
X Variable 1-0.0002889650.0000620552-4.65658161570.0004491334-0.000423027-0.000154903-0.000423027-0.000154903
Regression of population evolution on CPI%,OT and GDP p.c. for Romania (1990-2004)GDPp.c. and OT for Romania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9857650872
R Square0.971732807
Adjusted R Square0.9640235726
Standard Error0.1010806875
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression33.86360964081.2878698803126.04789935150.0000000085
Residual110.11239035920.0102173054
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.0384299990.16949411141.8245743146023.665375789524.411484208523.665375789524.4114842085
X Variable 10.00027002620.00058986230.45777839470.6560216798-0.00102825260.0015683051-0.00102825260.0015683051
X Variable 2-0.00004132450.0000190921-2.16448497760.053286549-0.00008334590.0000006969-0.00008334590.0000006969
X Variable 3-0.02888192440.0033092777-8.72756133920.0000028287-0.0361655993-0.0215982495-0.0361655993-0.0215982495
Regression of the population evolution on theshare of wages in total disposablwe income and the labor productivity (GDP/w) for Romania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9412213541
R Square0.8858976375
Adjusted R Square0.8668805771
Standard Error0.194437435
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression23.52232900671.761164503346.58436256870.0000022068
Residual120.45367099330.0378059161
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept21.82028614950.313080519169.6954451498021.138142309322.502429989621.138142309322.5024299896
X Variable 10.01817540380.0034710395.2363006130.00020904390.01061265960.02573814810.01061265960.0257381481
X Variable 2-0.00022961170.0000373959-6.14001571540.0000502165-0.0003110905-0.0001481329-0.0003110905-0.0001481329
Regression of population evolution on the CPI%, GDP p.c., OT,p.c.,OT,Wshare and GDP/w for Romania forf the period 1990-2004
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.992486895
R Square0.9850302368
Adjusted R Square0.9767137017
Standard Error0.0813222523
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression53.91648022160.7832960443118.44238315460.0000000624
Residual90.05951977840.0066133087
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.31132187370.43048493856.4742682694023.337496545525.285147201823.337496545525.2851472018
X Variable 1-0.00043484630.0005848892-0.74346782560.4761578351-0.00175795850.000888266-0.00175795850.000888266
X Variable 2-0.00019465670.000062102-3.13446754580.0120347772-0.0003351413-0.0000541721-0.0003351413-0.0000541721
X Variable 3-0.03073800550.0046179095-6.65625981290.0000930694-0.0411844506-0.0202915605-0.0411844506-0.0202915605
X Variable 4-0.00337352970.0035720797-0.9444161340.3696185204-0.01145414160.0047070822-0.01145414160.0047070822
X Variable 50.00026180330.00010779582.42869706290.03806381080.00001795210.00050565450.00001795210.0005056545
Regression of Populatoon evolutionon the stability index for Romania (1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.6744948486
R Square0.4549433007
Adjusted R Square0.4130158623
Standard Error0.4082933934
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression11.80885456371.808854563710.85072969050.0058139567
Residual132.16714543630.1667034951
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.89960614890.808231514530.8075170325023.153528454626.645683843323.153528454626.6456838433
X Variable 1-0.0427766770.012986065-3.29404457930.0058139567-0.0708313594-0.0147219946-0.0708313594-0.0147219946
Regressions of Populationon a selected set of variables
GDP%CPI%OTStbIdxPop
1990-5.67029.160.823.2
1991-12.215732.136.623.1
1992-8.7210.440.951.622.8
19931.5156.1426722.7
19943.9136.742.364.422.6
19957.132.350.25722.4
19963.928.857.364.422.3
1997-6.1154.861.359.622.2
1998-5.459.164.261.322.1
1999-3.245.855.265.322
20001.84062.26721.9
20015.53066.866.421.8
20024.62069.167.221.7
20034.91474.26821.6
20046972.96921.5
Regression of Population on GDP%,CPI% and OT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9813671011
R Square0.9630813872
Adjusted R Square0.9530126746
Standard Error0.1155179658
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression33.82921159551.276403865295.65089667970.0000000366
Residual110.14678840450.0133444004
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.03019373240.1938741092123.947410167023.603479479424.456907985523.603479479424.4569079855
X Variable 1-0.00697780840.0069452051-1.00469436640.3366334488-0.02226410950.0083084926-0.02226410950.0083084926
X Variable 20.0003985220.00071433230.55789444730.5880906985-0.00117371350.0019707576-0.00117371350.0019707576
X Variable 3-0.03297236060.0029142247-11.31428230210.0000002125-0.0393865291-0.0265581921-0.0393865291-0.0265581921
Regression of Population on OT and the StbIdx
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9803549574
R Square0.9610958426
Adjusted R Square0.9546118163
Standard Error0.1135352111
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression23.82131707011.910658535148.22516246710.0000000035
Residual120.15468292990.0128902442
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.48686483190.227161613107.7949065083023.991922203624.981807460223.991922203624.9818074602
X Variable 1-0.03352987880.0026834818-12.49491560570.0000000308-0.0393766832-0.0276830743-0.0393766832-0.0276830743
X Variable 2-0.00639064160.0046389606-1.37760203950.1934760289-0.01649806840.0037167851-0.01649806840.0037167851
Regression of Population on all the above selected variables (GDP%,CPI%,OT and the StbIdx)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9819856877
R Square0.9642958909
Adjusted R Square0.9500142473
Standard Error0.1191467741
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression43.83404046230.958510115667.51995186670.0000003378
Residual100.14195953770.0141959538
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept24.21489509790.374534626664.6532880425023.380379800525.049410395423.380379800525.0494103954
X Variable 1-0.00428909090.0085185949-0.50349746410.6255196959-0.02326970650.0146915246-0.02326970650.0146915246
X Variable 20.00039355140.00073682120.53412062260.6049278223-0.00124818880.0020352915-0.00124818880.0020352915
X Variable 3-0.03234826660.0031905629-10.13873339950.0000014008-0.039457285-0.0252392482-0.039457285-0.0252392482
X Variable 4-0.00353391260.0060592027-0.58323063060.5726555949-0.01703465980.0099668346-0.01703465980.0099668346
Regression of the Population evolution (Romania 1990-2004) on the GDP%, the CPI%, GDPp.c.,OT and the share of wages-Wshare in total disposable income
GDP%CPI%GDPpcOTWsharePop
1990-5.670303229.192.623.2
1991-12.2157277732.179.223.1
1992-8.7210.4275040.986.322.8
19931.5156.128004284.222.7
19943.9136.7409042.383.922.6
19957.132.3436050.281.322.4
19963.928.8430057.382.822.3
1997-6.1154.8429061.346.722.2
1998-5.459.1397064.25422.1
1999-3.245.8564755.25722
20001.840638062.251.121.9
20015.530684066.84821.8
20024.620779569.162.821.7
20034.914955174.26321.6
2004691159772.968.221.5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9908806496
R Square0.9818444617
Adjusted R Square0.9717580516
Standard Error0.0895584354
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression53.90381357990.78076271697.34330129930.0000001481
Residual90.07218642010.0080207133
Total143.976
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept23.26297913080.404463013257.5157143429022.34801953124.177938730622.34801953124.1779387306
X Variable 1-0.01146589590.0063268373-1.81226343330.1033634354-0.02577820720.0028464153-0.02577820720.0028464153
X Variable 2-0.00003772490.0005760356-0.0654905260.9492151133-0.00134080890.0012653592-0.00134080890.0012653592
X Variable 3-0.00004935220.0000179203-2.7539775530.0223310438-0.0000898908-0.0000088135-0.0000898908-0.0000088135
X Variable 4-0.02107528730.0047531712-4.43394238880.0016377841-0.0318277158-0.0103228588-0.0318277158-0.0103228588
X Variable 50.00596563340.00291039972.04976425350.0706406913-0.00061815330.01254942-0.00061815330.01254942
Po.ROVexplic.
199023.2
199123.1
199222.8
199322.7
199422.6
199522.4
199622.3
199722.2
199822.1
199922
200021.9
200121.8
200221.7
200321.6
200421.521.5
200521.4
200621.37
200721.35
200821.33
200921.32
201021.31
201121.3
201221.3
201321.29
201421.29
201521.28
201621.28
201721.27
201821.27
201921.321.3
202021.34
202121.38
202221.4
202321.42
202421.44
202521.45
202621.46
202721.46
202821.47
202921.47
203021.5
203121.6
203221.7
203321.9921.99
203422
203522.01
203622.01
203722.02
203822.03
203922.04
204022.03
PopRO-C
18343.04
18603.9
18995.95
19127.7
191818
193018.7
194020.4
194815.8
195617.4
196619.1
197721.5
199222.8
200221.6
201221.3
202221.4
203221.6
204022.03
Pop-RCP
18343.04
18603.9
18995.95
19127.7
191818
193018.7
194020.4
194815.8
195619.2
196624.1
197728.6
198729.5
23.21990
23.11991
22.81992
22.71993
22.61994
22.41995
22.31996
22.21997
22.11998
221999
21.92000
21.82001
21.72002
21.62003
21.521.5
21.42005
21.372006
21.352007
21.332008
21.322009
21.312010
21.32011
21.32012
21.292013
21.292014
21.282015
21.282016
21.272017
21.272018
21.321.3
21.342020
21.382021
21.42022
21.422023
21.442024
21.452025
21.462026
21.462027
21.472028
21.472029
21.52030
21.62031
21.72032
21.9921.99
222034
22.012035
22.012036
22.022037
22.032038
22.042039
22.032040
Po.RO
Vexplic.
Populatia in mil. locuitori
Evolutia populatiei Romaniei intre 1990-2004 si prognoza pana in 2040, pe baza a trei variabile explicative
GDP%
Wshare
CPI%
3.04
3.9
5.95
7.7
18
18.7
20.4
15.8
17.4
19.1
21.5
22.8
21.6
21.3
21.4
21.6
22.03
PopRO-C
Populatia in mil.loc.
Populatia Romaniei la recensaminte (pentru 1834 date statistice aproximative, 1918 -date valide fara recensamant,1940-date estimative;dupa 2002 date bazate pe prognoza, cu recensaminte presupuse la fiecare 10 ani)
3.04
3.9
5.95
7.7
18
18.7
20.4
15.8
19.2
24.1
28.6
29.5
Pop-RCP
Populatia in mil.loc.
Populatia prezumata a Romaniei la recensaminte in cazul in care tara ar fi urmat o cale de dezvoltare naturala (capitalista) dupa cel de al doilea razboi mondial, luand in considerare, totusi, pierderea Bsarabiei si a Nordului Bucovinei
19901990199019901990
19911991199119911991
23.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.0333333333
22.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.8666666667
22.722.722.722.722.7
22.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.5666666667
22.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.4333333333
22.322.322.322.322.3
22.222.222.222.222.2
22.122.122.122.122.1
2222222222
21.921.921.921.921.9
21.821.821.821.821.8
21.721.721.721.721.7
21.621.621.621.621.6
21.868709277621.503573658322.174199457121.665321432521.2167157175
21.914622181821.427632252421.627661773521.753282064920.8240039818
22.024177763121.377330960822.159445857121.871769423920.4352660204
21.801155751321.351653681721.503344978321.856701164320.3697606006
21.834986088221.33472404322.136858399321.849521066520.3603603132
21.838814749121.322128282721.720447191221.842527646420.4143977932
21.839965170621.311943230121.850692597721.83512588420.4973785222
21.840427524721.303568355821.845374920621.83007215220.5937449021
21.84060058121.296551708921.844994462721.827268543320.6818474875
21.840661468721.290550886621.84497633221.826132797620.7695554634
21.84069129621.285325940221.844977435921.825192318420.8704567991
21.840704376621.280752023521.844977518921.824423436520.9778915407
21.840710272221.276630142321.844977499621.8237916721.0775812396
21.840713025321.272833536321.844977503521.82325772421.159984907
21.840714347221.269259918221.844977504421.822791607121.2283499109
21.840715015321.265885066621.844977504721.822144760921.2838676063
21.824619577521.262665475321.844977504821.821368682221.3282015975
21.804389286121.259588291521.844977504921.820493967721.3631368888
21.790563349821.256629161721.844977504921.813617672721.3903857762
21.808918379721.25380402221.844977504921.813302140221.4114749799
21.852836420221.251075499321.844977504921.812991357921.4277114542
21.917168268521.248440806321.844977504921.819036075621.4401630476
21.950963360821.245895630621.861389072421.818780475921.4496901114
21.899680514121.243463214122.011440067621.818718972821.456972351
21.837826848121.241136936721.864857292821.818628022321.4625443642
21.794683576321.238917977621.940782036921.818674065621.4654903531
21.817560531821.236792644721.723320658621.818854494121.4659817155
21.826204343921.234746081721.868804759321.819164826121.4640057409
21.831874818621.232760122121.776574488621.819469168821.6614295252
21.835985363221.230830688121.843302601921.819749891421.8636625229
21.838537774221.228941138421.844936768921.819987610422.0706604959
21.84005882921.227093802521.846454836521.820042826922.078887388
21.840894711521.225285824521.849691741221.820055062122.0860019367
21.841296910121.223525896121.852359271421.819987007622.091036664
21.841530666821.221804408821.854309221921.820035527422.0984488536
21.841713795121.220115950321.855910999521.820008916922.1037832898
PFgdppc
PFCPI
PFOT
PFGDP%
PFWshar
mil.pers.
Population Forecasts (RO-2040), smoothed series (moving averages) using different explanatory variables
23.223.223.223.223.2
23.123.123.123.123.1
22.822.822.822.822.8
22.722.722.722.722.7
22.622.622.622.622.6
22.422.422.422.422.4
22.322.322.322.322.3
22.222.222.222.222.2
22.122.122.122.122.1
2222222222
21.921.921.921.921.9
21.821.821.821.821.8
21.721.721.721.721.7
21.621.621.621.621.6
21.521.521.521.521.5
21.410720974921.895964297423.422598371222.506127832720.5501471526
21.372175782321.863881897119.960386949421.737738712620.4218647927
21.349096125221.855462077123.095352250621.828666743920.333786116
21.333689137621.850759518721.454295734921.837061797320.3536308932
21.321386866121.842341603721.860927212321.839229723320.3936639305
21.311308844421.834481816621.846118626421.840152726720.495898556
21.303133979721.828554231721.845031954321.840513061720.6025730801
21.296262243321.827180407721.844974181121.840616785820.6827630702
21.290258903721.826070990421.844977252821.840671895720.7602063122
21.285131512721.825146994821.844977562121.840695724620.8656970078
21.280587404121.8243589721.844977492821.840706267820.9854670772
21.276537153621.823764344721.844977501821.840711137321.0825105371
21.272765869221.823251695321.84497750421.840713411421.1647661046
21.26919758621.82275713221.844977504621.840714527221.2326780792
21.265816299521.822365994121.844977504821.840715103121.2876055487
21.262641314321.821311156621.844977504821.840715415621.331319191
21.25953881221.820428895821.844977504921.792428213721.3656800527
21.256584748221.819741850821.844977504921.780024229121.3924114228
21.25376392521.800682271421.844977504921.799237606521.4130658532
21.251063392721.819482298221.844977504921.847493303521.4289476637
21.248399180221.81880950421.844977504921.911778350621.4411208456
21.245859845821.818816424721.844977504921.992233151421.4504206337
21.243427865721.818715498821.894212207321.948878580521.4575288548
21.241101930721.81862499522.295130490621.757929810421.4629675644
21.238881013721.818543573121.405229180721.806672153521.4671366735
21.236770988421.818853628822.121986439521.819448765121.4663668215
21.23472593221.819166280321.642746355621.826560676721.4644416514
21.232741324821.819474569321.841681482621.832603589821.4612087497
21.230813109521.819766656821.845295627521.836460189322.0586381744
21.2289376321.820008448121.842930695621.838892310622.0711406446
21.227072675621.820187726421.846583983721.840260822622.0822026688
21.22527110221.819932306321.849849830321.841023353722.0833188507
21.223513695921.820045153721.852641409521.84139995822.0924842907
21.221792890421.819983562921.854586574421.841467418522.0973068507
21.2201066421.820077865621.855699681621.841724623922.1055554192
21.218448320621.819965322221.857446742321.841949342722.1084875993
PopF-CPI
PF-GDP%
PPopF-OT
PF-gdppc
PFWshar
mil.pers.
Population forecasts (RO-2040), non-smoothed series using different explanatory variables
23.223.0333333333
23.122.8666666667
22.822.7
22.722.5666666667
22.622.4333333333
22.422.3
22.322.2
22.222.1
22.122
2221.9
21.921.8
21.821.7
21.721.6
21.621.2167157175
21.520.8240039818
20.550147152620.4352660204
20.421864792720.3697606006
20.33378611620.3603603132
20.353630893220.4143977932
20.393663930520.4973785222
20.49589855620.5937449021
20.602573080120.6818474875
20.682763070220.7695554634
20.760206312220.8704567991
20.865697007820.9778915407
20.985467077221.0775812396
21.082510537121.159984907
21.164766104621.2283499109
21.232678079221.2838676063
21.287605548721.3282015975
21.33131919121.3631368888
21.365680052721.3903857762
21.392411422821.4114749799
21.413065853221.4277114542
21.428947663721.4401630476
21.441120845621.4496901114
21.450420633721.456972351
21.457528854821.4625443642
21.462967564421.4654903531
21.467136673521.4659817155
21.466366821521.4640057409
21.464441651421.6614295252
21.461208749721.8636625229
22.058638174422.0706604959
22.071140644622.078887388
22.082202668822.0860019367
22.083318850722.091036664
22.092484290722.0984488536
22.097306850722.1037832898
22.1055554192
22.1084875993
PFWshar
PFWshar
mil.pers.
Population Forecast (RO-2040), non-smoothed series (left axis) & smoothed series (right axis) using the share of wages in total disposable income as explanatory variable
GDP%CPI%Wshare
1990-5.67092.6
1991-12.215779.2
1992-8.7210.486.3
19931.5156.184.2
19943.9136.783.9
19957.132.381.3
19963.928.882.8
1997-6.1154.846.7
1998-5.459.154
1999-3.245.857
20001.84051.1
20015.53048
20024.62062.8
20034.91463
20046968.2
Regression of the share of wages (Wshare) on the GDP% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.1028988596
R Square0.0105881753
Adjusted R Square-0.0655204266
Standard Error16.2167607434
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression136.586056237636.58605623760.13911929850.7151690475
Residual133418.7832770957262.9833290074
Total143455.3693333333
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept69.37163429614.188202910716.56358007830.000000000460.323573745778.419694846560.323573745778.4196948465
X Variable 1-0.26274277950.7044287951-0.3729869950.7151690475-1.78456837581.2590828168-1.78456837581.2590828168
Regressiion of the share of wages on the CPI% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.356010914
R Square0.1267437709
Adjusted R Square0.0595702148
Standard Error15.2351385195
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression1437.9465391227437.94653912271.88681049920.1927868223
Residual133017.4227942106232.1094457085
Total143455.3693333333
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept62.8394573616.191260824510.14970280570.000000151449.464054111176.214860610949.464054111176.2148606109
X Variable 10.08462898590.06161053711.37361220840.1927868223-0.04847246160.2177304334-0.04847246160.2177304334
Regression of the share of wahes on the annual % variation of GDP and CPI (Romania 1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.4011775772
R Square0.1609434485
Adjusted R Square0.0211006899
Standard Error15.5436221571
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression2556.1190561812278.05952809061.15088868440.3489373005
Residual122899.2502771521241.6041897627
Total143455.3693333333
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept59.81920231637.65176870527.81769609370.000004756943.147430776976.490973855843.147430776976.4909738558
X Variable 10.63855425820.9130441810.69936841120.4976547454-1.35079808342.6279065999-1.35079808342.6279065999
X Variable 20.12464697060.08500165651.46640637030.1682479254-0.0605557260.3098496672-0.0605557260.3098496672
Regression of the GDP% annual variation on the CPI% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.6731654411
R Square0.4531517111
Adjusted R Square0.4110864581
Standard Error4.721595318
Observations15
ANOVA
dfSSMSFSignificance F
Regression1240.1583228271240.158322827110.77258969890.0059484139
Residual13289.815010506222.2934623466
Total14529.9733333333
CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
Intercept4.72983306531.91876352712.46504219960.02839837410.58459728178.8750688490.58459728178.875068849
X Variable 1-0.06266967010.0190940189-3.28216235110.0059484139-0.1039197822-0.021419558-0.1039197822-0.021419558
GDP%CPI%AvWageGDPpcOTWshareGDP/wStbIdxPop
1990-5.670138.6303229.192.6237460.823.2
1991-12.215797.6277732.179.2243936.623.1
1992-8.7210.482.6275040.986.3251551.622.8
19931.5156.1103.128004284.225746722.7
19943.9136.7109.8409042.383.9277764.422.6
19957.132.3138.3436050.281.331535722.4
19963.928.8138.4430057.382.8311964.422.3
1997-6.1154.8121.8429061.346.7291859.622.2
1998-5.459.1153397064.254289861.322.1
1999-3.245.8127.7564755.257319665.322
20001.840131638062.251.134956721.9
20015.530145684066.848378366.421.8
20024.620161779569.162.8496767.221.7
20034.914203955174.26360866821.6
2004692641159772.968.273916921.5
Moving averages smoothing
PFgdppcPFCPIPFOTPFGDP%PFWshar
GDP%CPI%GDPpcOTWshareGDP/wPopF-CPIPF-GDP%PPopF-OTPF-gdppcPFWsharPFGDP/w1990
1990-5.670303229.192.6237423.223.223.223.223.21991
1991-12.2157277732.179.2243923.123.123.123.123.1199223.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.0333333333
1992-8.7210.4275040.986.3251522.822.822.822.822.8199322.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.8666666667
19931.5156.128004284.2257422.722.722.722.722.7199422.722.722.722.722.7
19943.9136.7409042.383.9277722.622.622.622.622.6199522.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.5666666667
19957.132.3436050.281.3315322.422.422.422.422.4199622.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.4333333333
19963.928.8430057.382.8311922.322.322.322.322.3199722.322.322.322.322.3
1997-6.1154.8429061.346.7291822.222.222.222.222.2199822.222.222.222.222.2
1998-5.459.1397064.254289822.122.122.122.122.1199922.122.122.122.122.1
1999-3.245.8564755.2573196222222222220002222222222
20001.840638062.251.1349521.921.921.921.921.9200121.921.921.921.921.9