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Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 1
QUN L CC VN QUC T
Ngun: Kenneth N. Waltz (1979). Theory of International Politics (Chapter 9)
(Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.), pp. 194-210.
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn
Hong Nh Thanh
Nu nh quyn lc khng thc s mang li s kim sot th n mang li iu g? V
c bn, n mang li bn th. u tin, quyn lc cung cp cng c duy tr c lp
ca ch th ny khi i mt vi p lc t cc ch th khc. Th hai, quyn lc ln
hn cho php nhiu la chn hnh ng hn nhng khng th bo m kt qu
ca hnh ng. Hai li th ny c chng ta tho lun. Hai li th tip theo
cn lm r hn.
Th ba, bn mnh hn c bin an ton rng hn khi hnh ng i ph
vi bn yu hn, v c ting ni trng lng hn v cuc chi cng nh cch chi.
Duncan v Schnore nh ngha quyn lc theo ngha sinh thi hc l kh nng
ca mt nhm cc hnh ng hoc vai tr t ra nhng iu kin m trong [iu
kin] nhng nhm khc phi thc hin chc nng ca mnh (1959, tr. 139).
Cc bn ph thuc c mt s nh hng ti cc bn c lp, nhng vn t hn so
vi chiu ngc li. Yu km dn ti mt cuc sng him ngho. John Riccardo -
ch tch Chrysler pht biu: Chng ta phi ng. Chng ta cng nh th chng ta
cng cn phi ng (Salpukas, 7/3/1976, III, tr. 1). General Motors c th mt
tin vo mu xe ny hay mu khc, hoc vo tt c, trong mt thi gian di. Cn
Chrysler nu lm nh vy s ph sn. Nhng ch th yu v ang gp kh khn,
d l tp on hay quc gia, u phi cn thn. Trong tinh thn nh th, vi
nhng dng di y Nguyn Vn Thiu t chi hip nh chm dt chin tranh
#264
09/07/2016
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 2
Vit Nam m ng minh Kissinger v k th L c Th ca ng k vo thng
10/1972:
Tin s Kissinger, cc ng l ngi khng l. Do cc ng c th chu c ci
gi t ca vic d di chp nhn hip nh ny. Ti th khng th. Mt hip
nh ti chng c ngha l g vi cc ng. Mt min Nam Vit Nam l g khi cc
ng nhn vo bn th gii? Ch l mt ht bi. Thm ch vic mt min Nam
Vit Nam c th tt vi cc ng. N c th tt cho vic kim ch Trung Quc,
cho chin lc ton cu ca cc ng. Nhng mt ngi Vit nh b khng chi
trn bn chin lc th gii. Vi chng ti, cu hi khng phi la chn gia
Mt-xc-va v Bc Kinh. M cu hi l la chn gia sng v cht (trch trong
Stoessinger 1976, tr. 68).
Cc quc gia yu hot ng vi mt bin an ton hp. Nhng hnh ng khng
thch hp, chnh sch sai lm v ng thi khng ng lc c th dn ti hu qu
thm khc. Ngc li, nhng quc gia mnh c th l nh; h c th chu c
tn tht do khng rt ra bi hc; h c th lp i lp li nhng hnh vi ngu ngc.
Ni mt cch hp l hn, cc quc gia ny c th phn ng chm v i xem
nhng hnh vi c v e da ca cc quc gia khc c tht s nh vy khng. H c
th th vi phn ln cc e da bi ch c mt s t e do nu c thc hin
thnh cng mi c th gy tn hi nghim trng vi h. H c th n binh bt ng
cho n khi s m h ca s kin c lm r m khng lo s rng thi im
hnh ng hiu qu qua.
Th t, quyn lc to ln trao cho nhng ngi s hu n mt v th quan
trng trong h thng v kh nng hnh ng v li ch ca c h thng. Vi nhng
ngi s hu quyn lc to ln, qun tr h thng va quan trng va nm trong
kh nng ca h. Mc tiu ca chng ny l trnh by bng cch no v ti sao
nhim v qun l h thng c thc hin phm vi quc t. Nh chng ta
bit, trong h thng t cu, cc ch th cnh tranh coi li ch tng i quan trng
hn li ch tuyt i. Li ch tuyt i tr nn quan trng hn khi cnh tranh gim
i. Hai iu kin cho php Hoa K v Lin X t quan tm hn ti li ch tng i
v ginh s quan tm ti vic to ra li ch tuyt i. Th nht l s n nh ca
th cn bng X- M, mt s n nh c cng c bi kh nng nh n p tr
ht nhn (second-strike nuclear weapons). Ni no kh nng tn cng ph u hu
nh khng tng, th ni khng cn phi tnh ton cn thn c/mt. iu
kin th hai l khong cch gia hai siu cng vi nhng cng quc xp sau,
khong cch ny loi b him ha v mt bn th ba bt kp [hai siu cng]. M
c li mt cch tng i khi OPEC tng gi du gp nm ln t 1973 ti 1977
(xem di y, tr. 153-55). Cc quc gia cng nghip phi cng sn khc chu thit
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 3
hi nhiu hn chng ta. L do ny i khi gi v sao M sn sng nhng b cc
hnh ng ca OPEC hn. Trong qu kh, vi nhiu i th cnh tranh, mt quc
gia c th tin vo nhng li dm pha, nhng by gi th khng. Trong h thng t
cu, khi m cn bng gia cc siu cng n nh v s phn b sc mnh gia
cc quc gia bt tng xng nghim trng, quan tm v li ch tuyt i c th
thay th nhng lo lng v li ch tng i. Nhng quc gia c u i qu mc c
th dn dt, hoc chp nhn cc n lc tp th mc d nhng quc gia khc t
c li ch bt tng xng t h.
Trong chng ny, u tin ti cho thy cch m qun l quc t c thc
hin bt chp nhiu kh khn, v sau xem xt ba nhim v m cc nh qun l
c th thc hin. Nh thng l, chng ta nn ch nhng nhim v ny c
thc hin khc nhau nh th no khi s lng cc ch th thc hin khc nhau.
I.
Trong quan h gia cc quc gia, vi s cnh tranh khng c kim sot, i khi
xy ra chin tranh. Mc d xt mt trong nhiu kha cnh, chin tranh l mt
phng tin iu chnh trong h thng quc t, s kin chin tranh thng b suy
din sai lm l du hiu sp ca chnh h thng. i khi, nh sut phn ln th
k XVIII v XIX, chin tranh c th chp nhn c, bi v n b hn ch v c mc
hy dit gii hn. Chi ph ca chin tranh gi y xem ra cao kinh khng. Bi v
mt trong nhng h thng t iu chnh rng ln v phc tp bc nht li vn
hnh vi mt trt t lng lo, vic qun l hiu qu vn gia cc quc gia tr
thnh mt nhu cu cp thit. Vi vic quyn lc khng b kim sot trn phm vi
quc t, c hp l k vng cc quc gia t iu chnh quan h ca h thng qua
chnh sch c lp ca mnh m khng dng chin tranh nh l mt phng tin
iu chnh khng? Vic iu chnh ny i hi t h thng chnh tr quc t
nhiu hn so vi k vng trong kinh t hay chnh tr ni a. Nhng bng vic miu
t k vng v [h thng quc t] theo cch ny, ta cng ngm gi nh rng
chin tranh v ri ro chin tranh c chi ph cao hn chi ph xy dng v duy tr h
thng qun l v rng vic qun tr ton cu ang c thc hin mt cch ti t.
Chng ta nghin cu chi ph ca h thng qun l. Liu s thiu vng h thng
qun l c ng ngha rng trch nhim qun l khng c thc hin hay khng?
Liu trch nhim qun tr c c thc hin trong mi trng v chnh ph, v nu
c, u l iu kin bo m chng c thc hin? Bi v c nhiu nhim v qun
l quan trng cn c thc hin trn phm vi quc t v khng c c quan hin
ti hoc tng lai no thc hin chng, chng ta phi tm mt th thay th cho
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 4
mt chnh ph [ton cu]. Tt nht chng ta c th bt u cuc tm kim bng
cch t cu hi ti sao hnh ng tp th v li ch chung kh t c trong mi
trng v chnh ph.
C hai kh khn t ra. iu u tin c minh ha bi v d v mt s nh my
cng nghip gy nhim mt dng sng bi rc thi ca chng. i vi mt s nh
my ngng x rc ra sng trong khi s khc tip tc lm vy th s khng c tt
lm. H thng x l cht thi tn nhiu chi ph. Nu mt vi nh my trt gnh
nng chi ph ca h ln cng ng, tt c cc nh my u s lm theo. Cc nh
my x thi min ph; cng ng, chng hn nh ngi bi v ngi cu c, gnh
chu chi ph. Trong trng hp ny khng c g c thc hin cho n khi tt c
cc nh my b bt phi chu ton b ph tn cho hot ng ca h bng vic chi
tr cho h thng x l rc thi. l mt "Alfred Kahn" ca ng xu (xem trch dn
trn, Chng 6, phn I, on 3).
iu kh khn th hai nm mt kia ca ng xu. Mt s hng ha v dch v no
, nu c cung cp, lm li cho tt c cc thnh vin ca mt nhm cho d h
c chi tr cho chng hay khng. Cng vin cng cng, lc lng cu ha, lc lng
cnh st, v lc lng qun i phc v cng dn trn quy m ln. Ngi tr cho
nhng dch v nh vy, v ngi khng tr, hng li nh nhau. Nhng dch v
nh vy l hng ha cng cng l loi hng ha mt khi c cung cp bi bt k
thnh vin no ca nhm s phc v cho tt c nhm. V vy tt c c l do do
d, hi vng rng nhng ngi khc s gnh chu chi ph - iu m khng ai c th
c ng lc lm. Nhng dch v nh vy s khng c cung cp, hoc c
cung cp thiu, cho n khi tt c b buc phi chi tr.
thc hin cng vic v li ch chung l kh. Nhng kh khn trn thay i nh
th no trong cc cu trc x hi khc nhau? Vic iu chnh cc cng vic tp th
cng cn thit hn khi cc ch th nh hng ln nhau gay gt hn thng qua
tng tc gia chng. S phn cng lao ng cng su sc, s iu chnh cc hot
ng chung cng phc tp cho n khi cui cng hoc h thng sp v thiu s
iu chnh hoc mt vi ch th tr thnh chuyn gia qun l cc cng vic tm h
thng. Vi mt ngi qun l hiu qu cc cng vic tp th, s chuyn mn ha
tin hnh nhanh hn. hon thnh nhiu cng vic hn, s chuyn mn ha lao
ng cng cn thit hn. Khi ph thuc ln nhau tr thnh hi nhp, phn cng lao
ng mang tnh chnh tr cng nh kinh t. Cc n v tng t trc y tr nn
khc bit v mt chc nng do mt vi n v m nhn nhng nhim v tm h
thng (xem Durkheim 1893, Park 1941). Chnh ph chnh l gii php. Chnh ph
bt buc nhng ngi cn thit phi hp tc v s thnh cng ca cc d n chung
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 5
v buc chi tr cho cc nh cung cp hng ha cng cng. Trn bnh din quc gia,
s chuyn ch ca cc quyt nh nh [tyranny of small decisions] b ph v v
hng ha cng cng c th c cung cp y . Tuy nhin, chi ph t chc c
c nhng kt qu ny c th vt qu nhng li ch c k vng. Trn bnh
din quc t, nhng d n chung c th khng c thc hin bi kh m bo s
hp tc t cc quc gia ngoan c. Trn bnh din quc t, hng ha cng cng c
th khng c cung cp bi v nu khng nh cung cp s phi phc v nhng k
ln trnh chi tr phn ng gp ca h. p buc nhng k i xe khng tr tin
[free rider] hp tc v phi chi tr chi ph l rt kh khn. Trn bnh din quc t,
s chuyn ch ca cc quyt nh nh khng b ph v, v hng ha cng cng
khng c cung cp y .1 iu c ng ngha rng khng mt cng vic
quc t no c th c thc hin hay khng? Chc chn l t cng vic c thc
hin ngoi nc hn trong nc, nhng t khng c ngha l khng c g. Ci g
lm c, v bng cch no, ty thuc theo s lng cc cng quc trong h
thng. "Cng ng cng vui [the more the merrier]" l kt lun m phn ln nh
nghin cu a ra; c ngha l, c hi ha bnh c cho l s tng ln khi s
lng cc quc gia tham gia tr chi chnh tr cng quyn tng ln, t nht ln ti
con s 5. t ai ch ti mt tc ng hay khc: "Chuyn ca tt c mi ngi l
chuyn ca khng ai c [everybodys business is nobodys business]". S tn ti ca
rt nhiu quc gia c cho l khin nhng iu chnh trong phn b quyn lc d
dng hn, v mc d chng ta bit rng iu khng ng, chnh tr quc t d
sao i na cng khng c cho l chuyn ca bt k ai. Li mt ln na, s ch
tp trung vo cc mi quan h - v b qua tm cu trc, v th nhn mnh s iu
chnh hn l s kim sot.
Chng ta thy g nu tp trung vo s qun l v kim sot cc quc gia hn l mi
quan h gia chng? Mt v d ca Baumol c tnh gi cao, mc d ng ta b st
nhn t quy m (1952, tr. 90-91). Gi s mt vi ngi nng dn b tc ng mnh
bi hn hn c th to ma bng cch thu ai to my. H c th lm du i tc
ng ca hn hn cho bn thn h v cng cho c nhng ngi nng dn hng
xm, nhng ngi c th t chi tr chi ph ng gp bi v d th no th h s
c li. Vic to ma l mt li ch tp th. Mt t nng dn c quy m ln nht c
th quyt nh cung cp dch v ny [to ma]. Bi v s lng cc bn nh, h c
th hi vng t c tha thun, v h c khuyn khch bi quy m vn v nhu
cu cp thit ca h. Nh Mancur Olson Jr. ch ra, "nhm cng ln th cng t
1 Trong s cc cng trnh chuyn su xut sc v hng ha cng cng, ti nhn thy Baumol 1952 v Olson 1965 c bit c tnh gi m. Ruggie 1972 cng kho lo miu t nhng kh khn v
mt t chc m ti ni ti y.
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 6
y mnh li ch chung hn" (1965, tr. 36, 45). Ngc li, nhm cng nh, v li
ch ca cc thnh vin cng t bnh ng, cng c kh nng mt vi thnh vin -
nhng thnh vin ln nht - s hnh ng v li ch ca nhm, nh h nh ngha
n, v khng ch v li ch ca h. Kch c tng i ca mt n v cng ln th n
cng ng nht li ch ca mnh vi li ch ca h thng. iu ny c lm r qua
vic xem xt trng hp cc oan sau. Nu cc n v tng ln v kch c khi
chng cnh tranh, cui cng mt trong s chng s thay th nhng n v khc.
Nu mt n v nut chng c h thng, s khc bit gia li ch ca n v v ca
h thng bin mt. Tr trng hp cc oan ny, trong bt c lnh vc no m cc
n v v mt chc nng th tng t nhng khc v kh nng, n v c kh nng
ln nht m nhn nhng trch nhim c bit. iu ny ng cho c cc n v l
cc nhm c quan h h hng, cc cng ty kinh doanh, ln cc quc gia. United
States Steel, mt cng ty c t chc sn xut thp v to ra li nhun, trong
thi hong kim ca n m nhn c nhim v iu tit - duy tr n nh gi c
mc cao m bo li nhun v thp lm nn lng nhng cng ty mi
gia nhp ngnh (Berglund 1907; Burns 1936). Nhim v cp h thng tht kh
thc hin. Ti sao cc n v ln hn li gnh vc nhng nhim v ? Ging
nh nhng n v khc, h mun h thng c trt t v ha bnh, v h mun li
ch chung c quan tm n. Khng ging nhng n v khc, h c th hnh
ng tc ng n iu kin sng ca h. Cc ch th u c gng gim tnh
bt nh trong mi trng ca mnh. Cc n v c phn ln trong h thng s
hnh ng v li ch ca h thng, mc d h phi chi tr [d khng b p buc]
lm vy. Cc tp on ln vn ng hnh lang cho nhng b lut phc v li ch
ngnh ca mnh. Cc tp on ln thit lp mc lng cho ngnh ca mnh khi h
t c tha thun vi cc lin minh thng mi. Cc tp on ln kim sot
ngnh ca h v hnh ng loi tr nhng i th mi. Cc tp on ln bin
quyn lc t nng lc cao hn ca h thnh mt s kim sot nht nh trong lnh
vc ca mnh cho n khi chnh ph ngn chn iu .
Trn bnh din quc t, lm th no cc vn v bo m vic chi tr cho, v
tham gia vo, cc nhim v tp th c th c gii quyt? S lng cng quc
cng nh, s bt bnh ng cng ln hn gia s t nhng quc gia quyn lc nht
v nhiu quc gia cn li, nhng quc gia quyn lc nht cng c th hnh
ng v li ch ca h thng v tham gia vo s qun l, hoc can thip vo, cc
cng vic ca cc quc gia nh hn. Kh nng cc cng quc s c gng qun l
h thng l ln nht khi s lng cc nc ny gim xung cn hai. Vi nhiu
cng quc, s quan ngi ca mt vi nc trong s ch cp khu vc, khng
phi trn ton cu. Vi ch hai nc, nhng lo lng ca h v nhau bin cc quan
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 7
ngi ca h bao trm c a cu. i vi tt c cc nc tr M v Lin X, vn
nm cc b hoc khu vc. ng no th chng cng chn chc khng phi l vn
trn ton cu. i vi M, v ngy cng ng vi Lin X, cc vn khu vc l
mt phn ca mi quan ngi ton cu. C hai nc u c mt tm nhn cp h
thng. M v Lin X chim ti khong 38% tng sn phm ca th gii v khong
80% chi ph qun s ca th gii. Khong 150 nc khc chim phn cn li. M
hay Lin X u khng th hnh x nh nhng nc "bnh thng" bi v y
khng phi l h. a v khc thng trong h thng khin h m nhn nhng
nhim v m cc nc khc hoc khng c ng c hoc khng c kh nng
thc hin.
Nhng nhim v ny l g? Theo th t gim dn v tm quan trng, chng l bin
i hoc duy tr h thng, gi gn ha bnh, v qun l cc vn kinh t chung v
nhng vn khc.
II.
H thng c duy tr hoc bin i. Chng ta hy xem xt nhng kh nng bin
i h thng trc cc vn ca vic duy tr. Trong cc h thng kinh t, bt c
cng ty no trong s mt vi cng ty c nh hng ln c nhiu ting ni hn v
tt c nhng vn nh hng n n hn l mt cng ty ging nh hng trm
cng ty nh khc. Nhng tp on c quyn c th mun th trng c hai cng
ty c quyn trong khi khng ng vi nhau v danh tnh hai cng ty c quyn
. Hai cng ty c quyn c th mun th trng c quyn hoc mong mun
rng nhng lo lng v qun l th trng c chia s bi mt nhm cc cng ty
rng hn. Trong chnh tr quc t kh nng ny khng t m nhiu hn so vi mt
khu vc hp ca nn kinh t, chnh xc v khng c quan no c kh nng hn ch
nhng n lc m cc quc gia c th lm bin i h thng ca h. Nhng thc
th ch yu cu thnh h thng cng l nhng ngi qun l n. H c gng gii
quyt cc cng vic thng ngy; h cng c th tc ng tc ng ln bn cht
v chiu hng ca s thay i. Ta khng th vt trn h thng; khng mt
ngi qun l cng vic ca cc quc gia thm quyn no s ni ln trong mt
tng lai c th d on c. H thng quc t c th b thay i bi hnh ng
ca cc ch th chnh ca n hay khng? Trong mt th gii a cc, mt cng
quc, hoc hai hay ba cng quc kt hp, c th loi b cc cng quc khc
bng vic nh bi h trong chin tranh. Vic gim t mt th gii a cc xung ba
cc hoc hai cc s thay i cu trc h thng. Chin tranh loi b mt lng
cng quc no s c tnh cht bin i h thng. Trong lch s hin i ch Th
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 8
chin II l lm c iu . Trong mt th gii lng cc, mt trong nhng
cng quc dn u c th tm kim b quyn hoc m rng nhm cc cng quc
bng cch y mnh s hp nht mt vi quc gia hng trung. K t Chin tranh
Th gii th hai, M c gng, d khng d dng g, theo ui c hai mc ch
ny nhiu ln. M l cng quc nng ng hn trong giai on ny, cho nn
chng ta hy xem xt chnh sch ca M.
M c th bo cha cho nhng hnh ng ca mnh nc ngoi bng mt hoc
c hai cch sau. u tin, chng ta c th phng i mi e da t nc Nga hoc
mi e da cng sn v phn ng thi qu i vi nhng mi nguy him khng
ng k. L thuyt domino l mt l thuyt cn thit nu cn mt nguyn nhn duy
l truyn thng v an ninh l gii cho cc hnh ng qun s vng ngoi bin.
Th hai, chng ta c th hnh ng v li ch ca ngi khc. Ging nh mt vi
cng quc trc y, chng ta c th ng nht trch nhim ca mt nc giu
v hng mnh trong vic gip cc nc khc vi nim tin ca chnh chng ta v
mt th gii tt p hn. Nc Anh tuyn b s m nhim ngha v ca ngi
da trng [the white mans burden]; cn nc Php tuyn b s mnh khai ha
vn minh ca h [mission civilisatrice]. Vi tinh thn nh th, chng ta [nc M]
cng tuyn b hnh ng thit lp v duy tr trt t th gii. Nim tin rng
chng ta phi quan tm n mi mi nguy him nhng ni xa xi c v tch bit
v mt phn tch vi ch trt t th gii vn pht trin vt ra khi t tng
ca ngi M trc y v quyn dn tc t quyt. Tuy nhin, trong thc tin,
chng c lin kt cht ch vi nhau. Li ch an ninh quc gia thng i cng vi
s duy tr mt kiu trt t no . i vi cc quc gia hng u, y l hnh vi c
th on trc c. H trn ln nhng mi lo cn thit hoc c phng i v
an ninh vi cc quan ngi i vi tnh trng ca h thng. Mt khi li ch ca mt
nc t ti chng mc no , li ch s vn hnh mt cch t ng. Khi c
gng thit lp trt t an ninh quc t, M cng thc y li ch kinh t v tham
vng chnh tr ca mnh.
Mt vi v d, c tp hp li ch ra nhng kha cnh khc nhau v ti trt
t th gii, s lm r tm quan trng ca n. Nhng pht biu u tin thi hu
chin v ti ny, v mt vi pht biu hin nay, bao trm c mi bn tm chng
cng bng nhng cch kh n gin. u thng Chn nm 1946, Clark Clifford lp
lun trong mt bn ghi nh vit cho Tng thng Truman rng "c hi tt nht ca
chng ta trong vic tc ng n lnh o Lin X nm ch th hin hon ton
r rng rng bt k hnh ng no i lp vi quan im ca chng ta v mt trt
t th gii hp l s lm tn hi cho ch X Vit trong khi hnh ng thn thin
v hp tc s mang li li ch. Nu lp trng ny c th duy tr chc chn v
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 9
lu di th logic ca n cui cng cng phi thm nhp vo h thng X Vit" (tr.
480). Chng cng khng ch l mt mc ch t thn; n cn l cch thc to ra
mt th gii hp l. Mi y, Adam Ulam nhn xt rng lch s thi hu chin c
th gi ra "thay i no trong hnh x ca Nga c li cho xu th xch li gn M, s
pht trin no ca M e da nh hng ca nc ny trn th gii v v vy nh
hng tng lai ca th ch dn ch" (Ulam, 1971, tr. vi). C Clifford v Ulam u
gn s ngn chn Lin X v s m rng nh hng ca M vi vic duy tr v pht
trin ca mt trt t th gii thch ng.
Mt tp hp v d th hai vt qua ch chng cng nhng khng loi b n,
bng cch tp trung trc tip vo tm quan trng ca vic xy dng trt t th
gii. Trch nhim sp xp li th gii tr thnh ch xuyn sut ca M trong cc
nhim k Tng thng ca Kennedy v Johnson. Tng thng Kennedy, pht biu
ngy mng Bn thng By nm 1962, a ra tuyn b: "T hnh ng theo
cch ca mnh, chng ta khng th thit lp cng l trn khp th gii. Chng ta
khng th m bo s bnh yn, s bo v, hoc thc y thnh vng chung trn
th gii, hoc bo v t do cho chnh chng ta v con chu chng ta. Nhng hp
tc vi cc quc gia t do khc, chng ta c th lm tt c iu trn v nhiu hn
th... Chng ta c th thit lp mt s rn e mnh ngn chn bt c cuc
xm lc no, v cui cng th chng ta c th hng ti mt th gii ca lut
php v t do la chn, loi tr th gii ca chin tranh v p bc" (23 thng By,
1962). iu ny s l li ch ca mt lin minh M - u. Mt vi nm sau, Thng
Ngh s Fulbright, pht ngn vin c nh hng nht cho xu hng pht trin ngy
nay, truyn ti mt ngha y v tham vng ton cu ca chng ta. Trong
cun The Arrogance of Power [S ngo mn ca quyn lc], ng ta nhn mnh
rng bi v th gii c kh nng t hy dit mnh nn cn phi t bn nng cnh
tranh ca cc quc gia di s kim sot. V ng ta b sung rng M, "siu cng
ln nht trn th gii, l quc gia duy nht c trang b lnh o th gii trong
mt c gng thay i bn cht ca chnh tr th gii" (1966, tr. 256). n gin hn,
Tng thng Johnson miu t mc ch ca sc mnh qun s M l " chm
dt xung t" (4 thng Su, 1964). Cha bao gi c lnh o no ca mt quc gia
by t tham vng cao hn th, nhng cng khng bao gi trong lch s hin i c
mt cng quc c c v th ng u v kinh t v cng ngh vi khong cch
qu ln so vi cng quc cn li trong cuc ua.
Rt kh xy dng mt ch i Ty Dng. i vi nhng ai khng phi ngi
M, iu ny i ngc li bn cht ca chnh tr quc t, l "hy t lo cho bn
thn". Bt k iu g c v l thnh cng ca M s l mt liu kch thch hn na
cho nhng n lc ca Nga. Hn na, nhng k yu lo s mt mt bn sc ca h,
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hn ch s hp tc ca h vi nhng k mnh hn. H mun nhn thy khng phi
mt quyn lc mnh hn m l s cn bng sc mnh. De Gaulle ni v ni s m
ngi khc cm thy - trong suy tnh ca M, cc nc chu u ch c vai tr ph
thuc. xy dng mt ch i Ty Dng vi mt Ty u khng thng nht,
chng ta phi lm cho cc nc chu u chia r v ph thuc di s nh hng
ca chng ta. Mt n lc nh vy t n khin cc nc chu u tm kim lin
minh chnh tr st sng hn, cng nh bng cch khc chng ta thng khuyn
khch h lm vy.
thc y thay i h thng, hoc bng cch xy dng b quyn ton cu hoc
nng mt khu vc ln a v cng quc bng vic gip n t c thng nht
chnh tr, l mt trong nhng k hoch ln lao ca lch s. Chng ta khng nn
ngc nhin hoc bun ru v n tht bi. L do nhn o bin h cho tham vng
chnh tr ln lao ca chng ta, v mc ch tt p r rng m tham vng th
hin, khng th che giu mi nguy him m n mang li. Hy bn n b quyn
trc. Ta khng th gi nh rng lnh o ca mt quc gia c sc mnh to ln s
lun lun hoch nh chnh sch mt cch khn ngoan, ra sch lc mt cch
hp l, v s dng sc mnh mt cch kim ch. S s hu sc mnh to ln
thng kch thch cc quc gia s dng v lc mt cch khng cn thit v ngu
ngc, y l iu m chng ta khng th trnh khi. i vi mt hoc mt tp hp
nhiu quc gia, phng vic lm dng sc mnh ca nc khc trong mt th
gii vn tn ti nhiu bt bnh v tranh chp, chm dt xung t trong mt th
gii c nhiu bt ng, s i hi s sng sut cng nhiu nh sc mnh. V cng
l khng th c nh ngha mt cch khch quan, mt cng quc s c lc b
cm d [bi quyn lc] tuyn b rng gii php nc p t chnh l cng l.
Him ha ca s yu ui lun tng ng vi cm d ca quyn lc.
V v hi vng ca nc M rng gnh nng ton cu c th c chia s mt khi
c mt quc gia Ty u tr thnh cng quc th ba th sao? Mc d nhiu ngi
M hi vng v mt chu u thng nht, rt t ngi suy xt v nhng h qu
tiu cc ca s thng nht ny. M khng cn lo lng nhiu v nhng ng thi bt
nh v nhng s kin khng mong mun cc nc yu. M chng ta phi bn
tm ti cc tc ng ca cng quc bt c u m n tn ti. Vn chnh yu
ca mt cng quc, nu khng n t chnh cng quc , ny sinh t h qu
ca chnh sch c theo ui bi cc cng quc khc, cho d h qu c c
d on trc hay khng. Quan im ny gi rng mt chu u thng nht c
th gy rc ri. Henry Kissinger ch iu ny. S mu thun th hin xuyn
sut cun sch Troubled Partnership [Mt quan h i tc y rc ri] ca ng v
NATO. Nu thng nht, chu u s l mt thnh tr chng li Lin X, nhng mt
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chu u chia r s d lnh o hn [cho M]. S mu thun ca ng c th gii
thch ti sao khi cn l Ngoi trng ng li ku gi mt "Hin chng" mi cho
chu u m khng a ra bt k mt xut c th no. Tuy nhin, ng ta
bnh lun nh sau: "Chng ta bit rng mt chu u thng nht s l mt i
tc c lp hn. Nhng chng ta cho rng, c th hi lc quan qu, li ch chung s
c m bo bi lch s hp tc lu di ca hai bn" (24 thng T, 1973). Gi
nh ny khng c c s. S ni ln ca mt chu u thng nht s chuyn cu
trc chnh tr quc t t trt t hai cc sang ba cc. V cc l do truyn thng,
tng thch chnh tr, v thc h, mt chu u mi c th c tnh hng Ty;
nhng chng ta bit rng c tnh ni ti v cc gi tr ca mt quc gia khng
cung cp c s cho vic on trc hnh vi ca quc gia . Mt chu u thng
nht mi v Lin X s l k yu hn trong ba cng quc. Trong h thng t cu,
tc ng bn ngoi y k yu ny v pha k yu khc. K yu hn, nh l thuyt
chng ta d on, c khuynh hng kt hp cn bng sc mnh ca k mnh
hn. Lin X s hnh ng nh vy, v chu u s c li v k yu sn tr gi nhiu
hn c ng h. S khng c i u trc din, nhng rt nhiu vn
quan trng, Lin X v chu u mi c th hp tc bng nhiu cch m chng ta
s nhn thy l kh chu.
Kissinger c th b sung, nh mt t ngi khi bn v vin cnh thng nht chu
u, rng cc nh nghin cu chnh tr quc t, vn khng ng v nhiu th, lun
lun nghi ng rng h thng ba cng quc s l th gii bt n nht trong tt c.
Ngi tin vo iu ny, c ngha s cho n mt chu u thng nht, phi t lp
lun ca h trn c s rng kh nng p tr ht nhn ca cc siu cng c ln
mi s khc phc s bt n mang tnh h thng. Cu hi t ra l phi chng mt
nguyn nhn cp n v c th xa b mt kt qu cp h thng. iu
hon ton c th. Lp lun khng phi l tc ng ca trt t ba cc tr nn khc
i m l mt s loi v kh no c th che m chng. Mc d kh nng p tr
c th duy tr s b tc gia nhiu hn hai cng quc, ta phi chp nhn nhiu s
bt nh hn v vic ai s gip ai, ai c kh nng p tr v ai c kh nng nh
n ph u, v sau nh cc rng h thng vn ha bnh v n nh bt chp
nhng kh khn ln hn . Chng ta nn u tin trt t hai cc hn. Trong
trng hp y chng ta c th s, bt chp nhng tuyn b, t cc pha i lp
hn [rng h thng s khng ha bnh v n nh khi c ba cc]. K c mt ngi
ng h thng nht chu u nh George Ball c th do d trc vin cnh mt th
gii ba cc nu n c nguy c tr thnh thc t. Nh chng ta k vng, M v Lin
X mun duy tr v tr ca mnh. i khi h hp tc lm vy, nh trong Hip c
khng ph bin v kh ht nhn. Mt trong nhng mc tiu ca Hip c ny c
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trnh by bi William C. Foster khi ng ta cn l gim c C quan Kim sot V kh
v Gii tr qun b [Arms Control and Disarmament Agency]: "Khi chng ta cn
nhc ci gi ca vic c gng ngn chn ph bin v kh ht nhn, chng ta khng
nn qun mt s tht rng s ph bin ht nhn lan rng ng ngha vi s xi
mn ng k khong cch sc mnh m ngun lc kinh t v cng nghip by lu
nay mang li cho chng ta so vi phn cn li ca th gii" (thng By 1965, tr.
591). M mun duy tr v tr u th, v hnh nh Lin X cng vy (xem Waltz 1974,
tr. 24). iu c cho l li ch trong mt th gii ba cc km hp dn hn vic
ng ca cu lc b [vi hai cng quc hin nay].
Bt chp mt vi li tu t li thi v chin binh dng cm nht trong thi k chin
tranh lnh, mc tiu ca M chuyn t thay i h thng sang duy tr h thng
v hot ng trong h thng . Hc thuyt Nixon tuyn b s thay i mc
tiu ny. Cc nc khc s phi hnh ng nhiu hn, mc d chng ta s tip tc
cng c an ninh cho h. R rng, s gip ca chng ta khng phi thay i
cn bng quyn lc ton cu m ch l bo ton n. Kissinger, vi vai tr l Ngoi
trng, xc nh nhim v ca chng ta t u nhng nm 1970 tr i l rt lui
khi chin tranh Vit Nam "vi mt cch thc gip gi gn nng lc thit lp v
tc ng n s pht trin ca mt trt t quc t mi" (10 thng Mt, 1977, tr.
2). iu ny nghe c v ging vi kht vng m M p , vi vi giai on gin
on, t nhim k Tng thng Woodrow Wilson tr i, kht vng ti sp xp th
gii; nhng khng phi nh vy. Kissinger khng suy ngh v trt t th gii di
gc cu trc h thng, m v nhim v thit lp trt t v mi quan h ha bnh
qua nhiu nm gia cc thnh phn chnh ca th gii. y l nhim v duy tr v
vn hnh h thng, hn l c gng thay i n.
S thay i su sc trong nh ngha v nhim v ca M nh du s chn mui
ca trt t th gii hai cc. "S chn mui" c hai ngha. Th nht, a v thng tr
khc thng ca nc M trc y trong mt th gii b tn ph nng n bi
chin tranh suy gim thng qua phn b cn cn sc mnh t b nghing lch
mnh m hn [v pha M]. Nh Kissinger ch ra, Lin X hin t ti "a v
siu cng thc s" bng cch loi b c s "bt cn xng trong sc mnh chin
lc gia M v Lin X" (3 thng Mi hai, 1975, tr. 2). Th hai, M v Lin X
cho thy r rng h hc cch c x ging nh hai k c quyn nn lm - iu
tit mc cnh tranh ca h v i khi hp tc v li ch chung trong khi tip tc
thn trng mt ti nhau. iu kin ny, nu c xem xt v khai thc thch
ng, cho php mt vi s o chiu trong xu hng bnh trng ton cu ca
M, mt s bnh trng vn c ku gi mt cch tr tru vi danh ngha chng
ch ngha cng sn.
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S chn mui ca trt t hai cc d b nhm vi s kt thc ca n. Gia nhng
nm 1970, s suy gim cnh tranh b quyn trong giai on ha du v s ni ln
ca quan h Bc - Nam khin nhiu ngi tin rng th gii c th khng cn hai
cc na. Nhng suy gim cnh tranh M - X v tm quan trng ngy cng tng
ca cc vn thuc th gii th ba khng ng cho s kt thc ca trt t hai
cc. Hnh vi ca M v Nga thay i n mc no sut thi gian qua,
nhng thay i l thay i m ta c th d on cc nc s thc hin chng
no trt t th gii vn l hai cc (xem Chng 8, phn III).
III.
Vi ch hai siu cng, ta c th trng i c hai hnh ng duy tr h thng.
Liu h c th m nhim thm cc trch nhim khc nh thc y ha bnh chung
v gip cc quc gia khc gii quyt vn an ninh? cp quc gia, th ch
chnh tr m bo s qun tr [cc cng vic chung]. cp quc t th khng
nh vy. Tht ra qun tr cng u c thc hin c hai cp nhng theo
nhng cch khc bit ng k. S khc bit ny, xut pht t cu trc, dn n
kh nng qun l quan h quc t b coi nh qu mc. Trong nc c xem nh
khu vc c tnh trt t trong cc chnh ph kim sot hnh vi ca cng dn
bng trao thng v tc ot, bng lut l v quy nh. Nhng vn trong nc
nm trong phm vi kim sot ca nh nc; nhng vn chnh sch i ngoi th
khng nh th. Tuyn b ny c v qu hin nhin, nhng tnh hin nhin ca n
bin mt nu nh ta nhn mnh kim sot hn l phm vi lnh vc. iu no kh
hn: iu chnh v kim sot hnh vi ca Nga Berlin, Cuba hoc, ngay trong nc
M, khin cc cng dn Hoa K khc mu da chp nhn nhau mt cch bnh ng,
gii quyt ti phm v thnh nin, m bo cc t chc cng on b chia r ng
vi ng li tin lng chung, qun l dn chng v ngn chn bo ng trong
cc thnh ph? Cc vn trong qun tr hai cp l khc nhau, nhng khng
c ngha kh khn hn mt cp ny so vi cp cn li. D dng nhng tht
sai lm khi kt lun rng tht kh khn kim sot quan h quc t vi l do
ngay c nhng quc gia quyn lc nht cng khng th kim sot tt c mi th
hay nh hng ln tt c mi ngi theo mun ca mnh. D sao i na iu
ny cng ph thuc vo loi kim sot hng ti v thay i ty thuc tng h
thng quc t.
Cc quc gia u tranh duy tr s c lp. V mc ch ny, cc cng
quc trong th gii a cc vn ng, kt hp v i khi tranh u. Mt s quc gia
tham chin ngn cc quc gia khc t c u th quyn lc. V li ch ring,
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cc cng quc tham gia vo nhng cuc chin cn bng quyn lc. Chin u v
li ch ring, cc cng quc ny to ra mt li ch chung nh mt sn phm ph,
sn phm m cc quc gia khng mun b xm lc nn cm kch.2 Cuc chin m
c pht ng trong Th chin I c mc tiu st nhp tt c hoc mt phn nhng
quc gia ln cn. Nhng quc gia ny khng th ngn chn tham vng ca nc
c; ch c cc cng quc mi c th. Mt kt cc tt p khng c m bo.
Cn bng vn c duy tr trc bng cch phn chia Ba Lan cho Ph, Nga v
o; iu ny mt ln na cho thy cc cng quc ch ng kim sot h thng
d cho chng ph hp vi li ch ca Ba Lan. y l mt im cn ghi nh. cp
quc t, phn nhiu vic qun l h thng c thc hin, mc d bn qun
l c th khng my thch th s phin h v nguy him ca vic qun l h thng,
trong khi bn b qun l c th khng thch bn qun l cng nh kt qu bn ny
to ra. Chng c g bt thng y. Nhng ngi qun l v cng vic ca h
thng chng c a chung - mt pht biu p dng c vi c ban iu hnh
cng ty, ch tch cng on, cn b nh nc v cng quc. Cc nc quc
kiu c khng c tn dng bi phn ln ngi dn, Nht Bn cng khng c
cho n khi h thit lp Khi thinh vng chung i ng , hay c khng
c hoan nghnh khi xy dng mt trt t Hitler mi. Tt c l nhng v d v
vic cc cng quc qun l, chi phi, kim sot v iu hnh cc vn khu vc
v ton cu.
Vi phn ln, chng ta nn trng i, v thc ra chng kin, nhiu n lc
qun tr trong th gii hai cc hn l th gii a cc. Nh chng ta bit, s ch
ca nhng nh qun l ch b phn tn gia hai cng quc, v h c y
ng c kim sot k lng cc vn ton cu. C Hoa K v Lin X xem
s phn ca nhiu quc gia khc l mi quan tm ca h. Edward W. Brooke
nm bt tinh thn ny trong bi pht biu u tin ti Thng vin. ng tuyn b
rng chng ta khng chin u ti Vit Nam nh mt s hi sinh cn thit v cn
bng quyn lc ton cu. Thay v , chng ta chin u mt cuc chin ng
n m bo ci c coi l tt nht cho min Nam Vit Nam, v vang v
chnh ng nht cho chnh chng ta (23 thng ba, 1967, tr. 8). ng ta ng.
Chng ta khng chin u v li nhun hay v cn thit. Cc quc gia, v c bit l
cc nc ln, khng hnh ng ch v li ch c nhn. H cng hnh ng v li ch
chung ca th gii. Nhng li ch chung c nh ngha bi mi cng quc cho
tt c chng ta, v nhng nh ngha ny xung t vi nhau. Chng ta c th s s
ngo mn ca nhng k mang gnh nng ton cu hn l s ch k ca nhng k
2 Trong mt bi vit cha xut bn, Stephen Van Evera lm r quan im ny.
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D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 15
ch chm chm li ch ring theo ngha hp. Ch th vi sc mnh to ln c th
gip hoc lm hi ngi khc. Thi thc hnh ng v li ch ca ngi khc
theo cch chng ta nh ngha li ch ca k khc tr nn c bit nguy him
vo u nhng nm 1960, khi chng ta chuyn i nhng ngun lc kinh t vt
tri thnh sc mnh qun s vi tc m Lin X khng th theo kp. Cuc ua
khc lit khin thc h vt trn li ch; quc gia chim th thng phong v
quyn lc b dn dt ch tm qu mc ti nhng mi nguy nh nht v theo
ui nhng mc tiu nc ngoi vt qu nhng li ch n thun c xc nh
bi khi nim an ninh. Trong nhng nm chin tranh Vit Nam, ngi M chng ta
tn hng s vt tri v qun s so vi Lin X: chng ta c th a na triu
binh s tham chin m khng cn tng t l chi ph quc phng trn tng sn phm
quc dn cng nh lm suy yu v th chin lc so vi Lin X. M c th hnh
ng vi kh nng to ln nh vy, khng phi chng li Lin X, m l chng li
nhng e da m quyn lc em n. Lm sao chng ta c th hi vng nhng k
nm gi nhiu quyn lc khng xa s mt khu vc nhn danh vic to dng v
duy tr trt t th gii? cp h thng quc t, ta c th hi vng rng quyn
lc, ngy cng cn bng hn, s t kim ch. Mt cuc chy ua v trang khc lit
i hi s thn trng t cc bn tham gia. cp quc gia, chng ta c th hi
vng cc p lc ni b ngn nh lnh o mo him khng cn thit. p lc t s
phn i ca cng chng vi cc chnh sch phiu lu c th lm iu M; s
yu km ca nn kinh t v s lc hu ca cng ngh c th lm iu Lin X.
Chng ta khng th hi vng rng cc siu cng s theo ui chnh sch
hon ton ng; chng ta ch c th hi vng h khng theo ui chnh sch hon
ton sai. Tht bi ca M ng Nam khng nn lm lu m vai tr hu hiu m
M v ang th hin ng Bc , chu u, Trung ng v cc khu vc khc.
Nh cc quan chc M thng ni, chng ta khng phi cnh st ca th gii.
Nhng, bun thay, theo pht biu ca Tng thng Johnson chng c ai khc c
th lm cng vic (5 thng 5, 1965, tr. 18). Tuyn b M khng th l cnh
st th gii, nh Kissinger bnh lun sau ny, l mt trong nhng nhn nh
chung chung cn lm r thm. Thc t l an ninh v pht trin phn ln cc khu
vc trn th gii ph thuc vo cam kt ca M (23 thng 12, 1975, tr. 18). M,
vi mt triu binh s n tr nc ngoi t trc khi chin tranh Vit Nam n ra,
b tr lc lng ti th gii phi cng sn t v tuyn 38 Hn Quc ko di sang
pha ng ti tn Berlin. Chng ta tng v vn ng vai tr cnh st th gii, v
gi gn trt t l mt nhim v ca chnh ph. Chng ta m nhim ngha v ny,
phn ln tha mn nhiu quc gia khc, v chi ph do chnh chng ta chi tr
nhiu hn l h. S hi lng [i vi nhim v ca chng ta] c th hin qua
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D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 16
vic vng bng dn nhng dng ch ngi M ct v i trn tng cc thnh
ph ngoi quc. Ngi M c ku gi i ti nhiu hn l ri i, v can thip
nhiu hn l ng ngoi. C y ry v d hin nhin. Ngi rp mun chng ta
gy p lc ln Israel, Israel mun chng ta h tr v ng h h. Lnh o Nam Phi
mun chng ta gii quyt nhng vn thuc a cn st li theo cch c li cho
h. Nam Hn ang ngp ngng ni li tm bit vi qun i M v s tip tc nhn
vin tr qun s km theo h tr khng qun v hi qun t M. Lnh o Trung
Quc mun qun M rt khi chu nhng cng lm r l khng mun qun M
rt qu nhiu v qu nhanh. Nhiu quc gia quen vi s ph thuc v tip tc
da vo chng ta. Ty u l v d in hnh ca s ph thuc di lu. D cho vt
tri v kinh t so vi Nga, cc quc gia Ty u vn trng i chng ta m bo
phn ln kh nng phng th cho h. Hy li thay th Ct v nh tr
thnh khu hiu ph bin. Thc s, Georg Leber v Helmut Schmidt khin Bn
phi li thnh mt thng ip khn cp trong hng lot pht biu ca h v an
ninh chu u. Leber, B trng quc phng c t 1972 ti 1978 cnh bo
chng ta rng: v cam kt qun s ca chng ta vi chu u khng c mt s
thay th chnh tr, qun s hay tm l no khc n t mt hay nhiu quc gia
chu u cng vi nhau (27 thng 02, 1973, tr. 50). Schmidt, gi chc B trng
Quc phng v B trng Ti chnh trc khi tr thnh Th tng c nm 1974,
trong nhiu nm kin quyt loi b n lc ln hn ca nc c bi thiu tin,
nhn lc, v s ng h c th cn tr mt gii php nh vy - ngoi ra n c th
mang li nhng h qu chnh tr nghim trng c ng v Ty (trch t
Newhouse 1971, tr. 83). Trong lp lun Ty c khng th tng cng n lc v
chnh tr v kinh t, l ra ng ta cn phi b sung rng chi ph quc phng m Ty
c ang phi vt ln duy tr chim ti 3,3% GNP. Trong khi , chng ta [nc
M] ginh ti gn 8% GNP cho quc phng, vi khong 2% GNP trong cho binh
lnh v thit b ti chu u hoc dnh cho chu u. T 1973 ti 1976, trong s cc
quc gia Ty u ch c Anh ginh hn 4% GNP cho quc phng, v chng ta ginh
khong 6%. Mt s quc gia chu u kh nng chi nhiu hn. Tuy nhin,
phn ng gp thm vo t bt c quc gia no cng s c nh hng rt t. H c
t ng c tng phn ng gp ca mnh hn l lp lun thuyt phc Hoa K
duy tr cam kt. iu ny c c, Php v Anh u lm theo nhng cch khc nhau
(xem thm Waltz 1974).
Trong th gii ca cc quc gia-dn tc, s iu chnh cc quan h kinh t,
chnh tr v qun s khi rt cn thit. Ai s m bo s iu chnh? Trong nhng
trng hp quan trng nht - nh hng kinh t su rng v e da n ra xung t
qun s - Hoa K thng l quc gia duy nht c kh nng can thip hiu qu.
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 17
Trong nhng vn ny, c kh nng khng c ngha l s gii quyt c. Khi
gip , chng ta cng c c mt s s kim sot. Chng ta c nh hng ln
chin lc chnh tr qun s ca cc quc gia khc, v i khi cn quyt nh cc
quc gia ny c nn gy chin hay khng. Nh Kissinger cnh bo i s Israel
Dinitz ma thu nm 1973 khng tn cng trc. V i s ca chng ta, Keating,
nhn mnh cnh bo ny bng cch ni vi ngi Israel rng nu nh h tn cng
trc m khng c bng chng khng th chi ci v s xm lc ca rp, h s
phi chin u mt mnh (Stoessinger 1976, tr. 179). M khng th ngn chn
cuc chin gia Israel v cc quc gia rp nhng hn ch chin tranh v buc
cc bn i n ha gii. Ta cng khng th hy vng g hn th [nh trng hp
Israel] Nam Phi. Nhng nu M khng ra tay c gng gii quyt nhng vn
quan trng v kh khn nht th ai s lm? Chng ta c th tin ln vi mt nn
ha bnh kiu M [Pax Americana] hoc thm ch l ha bnh kiu Nga-M [Pax
Russo-Americana], nhng chng ta s dit vong nu quay li tnh trng m ch c
nc yu quan tm ti trt t quc t, mt hc gi Canada pht biu (Holmes
1969, tr. 244).
Mc cho nhng kh khn trong qun tr quc t, M thm ch c th qu
kim sot quan h quc t t Th chin 2. Nguy him v ngha v qu r rng
trong th gii hai cc d dng dn ti phn ng thi qu t mt t nc xc nh
an ninh ca chnh n trng vi s duy tr trt t th gii. Lo toan nhng vn ca
th gii trong mt phn ba th k d khin chng ta tin rng th gii s ti t hn
rt nhiu nu chng ta khng cn quan tm ti th gii nh th na. Mt s lo
ngi rng sau chin tranh Vit Nam, M c th t b trch nhim ton cu mt
cch qu nhanh chng. Lo ngi trn khng c c s bi ba l do. Th nht, li ch
ca cc siu cng i vi hng ha cng cng mnh h m ng vic
cung cp cc hng ha d khng c tr gi xng ng. H c ng c
hnh ng v li ch ha bnh chung v an ninh rng hn ca cc quc gia d h s
hnh ng v li ch ca k khc cng nh ca chnh mnh, v d cho cc quc gia
khc phi chi tr t hn. Do Mancur Olson Jr. cp v xu hng li dng
cng quc ca cc quc gia nh (1965, tr. 35). Nhng quc gia i u ng vai
tr dn dt trong qun tr quc t, v h thc hin vai tr ny nhiu hn khi s
lng [quc gia i u] ch cn li hai. Th hai, cc quc gia khc c th phi lo
lng v mc tin cy trong nhng cam kt ca chng ta, nhng chng ta th
khng [phi lo lng]. tin cy ca chng ta l vn vi h ch khng phi
chng ta, mc d vo gia nhng nm 1970 cc nh lnh o M nu vn
ny mt cch sai lm. Chng ta i khi c l do gnh vc gnh nng ca quc
gia khc; chng ta hu nh khng cn gnh ly lo lng ca h v tin cy ca
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 18
chng ta khi m nhng lo lng c th thc y h hnh ng nhiu hn t
gip mnh v gim thiu cng vic m chng ta phi lm cho h. Th ba, thi quen
qun l trong ba thp k thm su ti mc vic chng ta lm qu nhiu thay v qu
t cng l mt mi nguy him.
Vic qun tr rt kh thc hin; quan h gia cc quc gia rt kh iu
chnh. Nhng nhn nh ny chc chn ng, v n cng khin phm vi, v thnh
cng, trong qun tr quc t ca M cng nh Nga thm n tng. Ti t ni v Lin
X bi M mang phn ln gnh nng qun tr ton cu v qun s v c bit l
kinh t. Lin X tt nhin duy tr trt t trong khu vc nh hng ca mnh ht
mc c th. Bng vic , Lin X gp phn vo ha bnh v n nh quc t,
d khng phi vo s t do ca cc quc gia ng u (xem Licklider 1976-77). Cc
cng quc c li ch nhng khu vc m s bt n ti y c th dn ti s can
d ca h v chm ngi chin tranh. Bt n ti Balkan khi mo Th chin I.
Liu th gii hai cc ca chng ta c th cho php khng hong v chin tranh n
ra gia cc quc gia ng u hn cht no so vi th gii a cc c? Tin rng cu
tr li l khng, mt s ngi lp lun rng th gii trc y v by gi u
tng i bt n v d c chin tranh. iu lm lu m khc bit cn bn gia
hai h thng. By gi vic kim sot cc vn quc t ng u bi cng quc
ny c cng quc kia chp thun bi vic can d v cnh tranh y c th
t ra nhng mi nguy him qu mc. Bi vy John Foster Dulles, ngi c xy
phong tro t do, m bo vi Lin X rng Hoa K s khng can thip vo cc n
lc n p khi ngi Hungary ni dy vo thng 10/1956. D chng ta c mun
cc nc ng u c la chn lnh o mt cch t do, nhng chng ta hiu
vic Lin X qun l mt khu vc c truyn thng bt n cng c im tt ca n.
Thng qua kim tra v thm d, ng u cng nh nhng ni khc, s phn
cng qun l c sp xp d dng trong th gii hai cc hn l a cc.
Trong khi t cu hi v kh nng qun l quan h quc t, chng ta cng
nn hi v mc cn thit ca s qun l . Nhu cu qun l tng ln khi cc
quc gia ph thuc ln nhau cht ch hn. Nu s ph thuc ln nhau thc s cht
ch, mi quc gia s buc phi i x vi hnh vi ca cc quc gia khc nh l mt
s kin bn trong bin gii lnh th ca n. S ph thuc ln nhau khin cc mi
quc gia trng chng nhau vi s cnh gic v nghi ngi. Suy gim ph thuc ln
nhau lm gim nhu cu kim sot. Chng ta hc c rng, c ngi hy vng
nh vy, hc thuyt domino khng ng vng c v kinh t ln qun s. Bin php
duy tr t cung t cp v vic s hu ngun lc to ln gip cch ly mt quc gia
khi th gii bn ngoi bng cch ngn chn nh hng ca nhng bin ng nguy
hi xut pht t bn ngoi phm vi quc gia. ng thi, s tp trung quyn lc,
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 19
th hin qua vic suy gim ph thuc ln nhau, cho php mt nhm nh cc quc
gia nh thp quyn lc c li ch ln hn khi thc thi vic kim sot cng nh
kh nng ln hn lm iu . ln ca hai cng quc cho h mt s kh
nng kim sot v ng thi cch ly h mt mc ng k khi nh hng t
hnh vi ca cc quc gia khc. S bt bnh ng [trong sc mnh] gia cc quc
gia to ra tnh trng cn bng ti mc thp ca s ph thuc ln nhau. Khi thiu
vng mt thm quyn iu chnh [trn phm vi quc t], kt ni lng lo v mt
mc kim sot nht nh thc thi bi cc nc ln gip tng cng ha bnh v
n nh. Nu thnh vin ca mt lnh vc v chnh ph trong tnh trng ph
thuc ln nhau thp, vic phi hp hnh ng v s thnh cng ca mc tiu chung
thng t cn thit hn. Kim sot thay v iu chnh nghim ngt, v ngn chn
thay v phi hp t mc tiu chung no c tnh quan trng then cht. Ngn
chn s dng v lc bng e da v lc, chng li v lc bng v lc, nh hng
ti chnh sch ca cc quc gia bng e da hoc s dng v lc: v s tip
tc l nhng cng c kim sot quan trng nht trong cc vn an ninh. Vi s
phn chia quyn lc th gii v cng mt cn bng, mt s quc gia, bng cch s
dng e da v lc, c kh nng iu chnh vic s dng v lc ca cc quc gia
khc cp quc t. Cng chnh nhng quc gia ny, bng u th c c nh
siu quyn lc, c kh nng hp thu nh hng t nhng thay i tim tng bt n
bt ngun t vic s dng bo lc m h khng hoc khng th kim sot.
IV.
Vy tt c cc vn khc i hi nhng n lc phi hp ca mt s quc gia th
sao? Nhng vn m ti cp - i ngho, dn s, nhim v ph bin v
kh [bn ch p: poverty, population, pollution, proliferation] - i khi tr thnh
trng tm ca chng trnh ngh s quc t. Th b tc qun s gia M v Lin X
c th cho php cc vn trn cn tn ti trong giai on di. Vy ai s gii quyt
chng? Rt nhiu ngi trong thp k 70 bt u tin rng M khng th, bi chng
ta khng cn l nn kinh t ch o ca th gii (xem Ullman, thng 10, 1976, tr.
3-4). ng, chng ta khng th gii quyt theo ngha cc vn quc t gi khng
th c gii quyt bi mt quc gia ring l no. ng, chng ta by gi khng
th lm theo cch ca mnh gii quyt cc vn quc t v thng mi, tin t
v ti chnh nh chng ta lm ti Bretton Woods nm 1944. ng, chng ta
khng th ngn chn ph bin v kh ht nhn, mc d chng ta c th lm nhiu
hn bt c quc gia no gi khng cho v kh ht nhn tr nn ph bin (xem
Kissinger, 30 thng 09, 1976, tr. 8-9; Nye, 30 thng 06, 1977, tr. 5-6).
Bin dch: Nguyn Th Ngn Giang & Nguyn Lng c | Hiu nh: Nguyn Hong Nh Thanh
D n Nghiencuuquocte.net 20
S khng ai ph nhn rng cc n lc tp th l cn thit nu nhng vn
chung cn c gii quyt hoc kim sot bng cch no . Thc hin nhng d
n chung by gi i hi nhiu s phi hp hn l trc y trong th gii hu
chin. Nhng vn ton cu khng th c gii quyt bi mt quc gia n
nht, m ch bi mt nhm quc gia lm vic cng nhau. Nhng ai c th cung cp
phng tin v ai s tr phn ln chi ph? Nu chng ta khng lm, hp tc gia
cc quc gia s hn ch v mc v nh hng. Ti ni v vai tr ca
chng ta trong cc vn kinh t cng nh cc vn khc, v cc cng c chng
ta t c t v th tng i c lp ca mnh, v v s bt lc ca Lin X, bt
k khuynh hng ca nc ny l g, trong vic qun l cc vn phi qun s
ton cu. V kinh t M l cng quc dn u, vt xa cc quc gia khc. Nu
cng quc dn u khng dn dt, cc quc gia khc khng th i theo. Tt c
cc quc gia c th cng trn mt con thuyn th gii ang b r r, nhng mt
trong s c ming vn ln nht [ bt l r]. Trong cc vn kinh t v x
hi, cng nh trong cc vn qun s, quc gia khc c xu hng phn ln
vic tt nc cho chng ta. S tng cng ph thuc ln nhau, theo mt quan
im c chp nhn rng ri, thu nh th gii v to kh nng thit lp mt s
qun l trung tm ca quan h quc t. S ph thuc ln nhau gia tng chc chn
dn ti nhu cu qun l cc vn chung gia tng, nhng n khng to ra mt
ngi qun l c kh nng lm iu . T quan im ton cu hay v m, M v
Lin X cn b qun l nht trong s tt c cc quc gia. L thuyt ca chng ta
thay i tm nhn thnh vi m. Vn c ch ra bi l thuyt khng phi l vic
qun l th gii, bao gm c cc cng quc trong , nh th no, m l kh
nng cc cng quc qun l cc vn quc t thay i nh th no khi h thng
thay i.
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