Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings

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Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOESR and Advanced IR Soundings. Jun Li 1 , Jinlong Li 1 , Jing Zheng 1 , Tim Schmit 2 , and Hui Liu 3 1 University of Wisconsin-Madison 2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOESR and Advanced IR Soundings Jun Li1, Jinlong Li1, Jing Zheng1, Tim Schmit2, and Hui Liu3

1 University of Wisconsin-Madison2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA3 National Center for Atmospheric Research

Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop08 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK

OutlinePrepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation;MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxyWRF/DART, WRF/3DVARImprove high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings; Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements;2012 plan value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.National Satellite Meteorological Center ,CMA Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Sinlaku PathSinlaku rapid intensification (9 10 September 2008) observed1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilationNational Satellite Meteorological Center ,CMA 3

Terra TPWAqua TPWAMSR-E TPWTerra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September 2008. The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.

CTLAMSR-E TPWMODIS TPWObsGOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies

MYD07GOES-R Alg.

GOES SounderGOES-R ABIGOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions

GOES RegGOES Phy9

GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min06:0005:3006:3005:5506:05n = 10112=9207(E13)+905(W11) 9H:\CIMSS\GOES\GOES_2010Storm\MyAnalysisHourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage 2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z

Forecast with Conventional data

OBS

Forecast with GOES SounderHourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z 12 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

10convert -delay 60 *png match_GCIP_prep1.gifH:\CIMSS\NCEP_GCIP_prep_4km\match_GCIP_wrf_prep1

Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

ObservationForecast withGOES SounderForecast withConventionalAIRS (10 August 2009)

CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage

(provided by Dave Tobin CIMSS/SSEC)2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings

(K)(K)AIRS 500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike

OBSCTLAIRS-TQHurricane at 2008090606CTLAIRS-TQCTL: radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQAIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations(Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike - 2008)

AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 00 UTC 10 September 2008).National Satellite Meteorological Center ,CMA AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts.1572-hour ensemble forecasts Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

CTLAIRSObsAssimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolutionControl (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data;AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundingsIrene (2011) track forecastsIrene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts

Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011)(06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data.AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundingsCTLAIRSAssimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution

AMSR-E TPW(090716 - 090719)TPW forecast (090718) with GTSTPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS(mm)(mm)(mm)TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September 00 UTC 10 September))

No AIRSWith AIRS3. Verify impact using AMSR-E TWPNational Satellite Meteorological Center ,CMA Impact of sounding bias correction on TC forecasts

Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September 00 UTC 10 September)AIRS no BCAIRS with BC 4. Summary and 2012 plansGOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R shows positive impact on HIW forecasts;Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone intensity and track analysis/forecasts;WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results;2012 plans on HIW studiesUse GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications;Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders;Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group;Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS (including AMSU and ATMS).