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WMOOMMWMOOMM
HIWeatherReport to WWRP/SSC
November 2015
Brian Goldingco‐chair
WMOOMM
Outline
• Review of HIWeather objectives• Highlights of the past year• Links• Plans for next year• Other
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Review of HIWeather aim & objectivesDespite recent advances in forecasting & emergency preparedness, weather‐
related disasters continue to kill, displace populations & damage property / infrastructure, while less severe weather events place an increasing strain on society, especially in countries with fragile economies and infrastructure
The potential of advanced weather‐related hazard forecasting has been demonstrated. There is a huge opportunity to protect lives and benefit communities if we can realise this potential across the world
Project aim:• Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic
increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications. The importance of warning services as a means of raising resilience to weather‐related hazards was highlighted in the Sendai Framework. Success requires improvement to both production and communication of forecasts.
WMOOMM
HIWeather
Vulner‐ability & Risk
Multi‐scale
Forecasts
Eval‐uation
Commu‐nication
Predict‐ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Benefits in Operational Forecasting
Data Management & Archiving
WMOOMM
Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
1. Improve knowledge and understanding of the processes that generate weather‐related hazards so as to assess their predictability. As well as leading to more accurate warnings, this objective underpins WCRP activity in extreme event projection and attribution in a changing climate.
WMOOMM
Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
2. Develop multi‐scale coupled forecasting systems of weather‐related hazards, including new observation sources, advances in data assimilation and modeling and ensemble prediction, and definition of new products.Km‐scale regional NWP & coupled medium range global NWP continue to develop strongly, but coupling at km‐scale remains a niche activity.
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Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
3. Improve knowledge, understanding and modeling of the exposure and vulnerability of society, businesses, environment and infrastructure to hazards; obtain data & develop tools & models to assess the resulting risk.Human impacts were a focus of the AMS2015 annual meeting, reflecting the growing recognition that warnings should be based on expected impact rather than on meteorological thresholds.
WMOOMM
Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
4. Improve knowledge and understanding of the processes and variables that influence different stakeholders’ decisions using high impact weather forecasts and warnings, and of the characteristics of information communication that lead to effective responses.This was also a focus at AMS2015, recognising that a warning is only of value if acted on. More research studies are being published but recognition of the need for long term research still needs promotion.
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Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
5. Develop improved methods of verifying forecasts, hazard warnings and people’s responses so as to permit evaluation of each stage in the complete production chain.Funders increasingly demand performance metrics but evaluation remains challenging and under‐resourced.
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Review of HIWeather aim & objectives
6. HIWeather Scope is defined by a set of hazards: urban flood, wildfire, extreme local wind, disruptive winter weather, urban heat wave, urban air pollution.Some aspects of the research will need to focus on one particular hazard in order to make progress.
Urban Flood Wildfire
Extreme Local Wind
Disruptive Winter Weather
Urban Heat Wave & Air Pollution
© www.thamai.net
© www.energydigital.com
© Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport
© Adrian Pearman/Caters
WMOOMM
Key HIWeather highlights of the past year
The highlight of the year was agreement ofthe Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reductionwhich identified early warning systems as key contributors to building disaster resilience
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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year
• Administration– The Implementation Plan was accepted at the 2014 WWRP SSC and
the ten year project formally started in January 2015– Co‐chairs from the physical and social sciences were appointed,
together with four of the task team leaders– The communication theme is temporarily being led by the social
science co‐chair– Four quarterly Steering Group teleconferences were held– A US organizing committee for HIWeather, PPP & S2S was created
and meetings were held towards forming a UK HIWeather initiative
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Current/planned governance structure
HIWeather Steering GroupPhysical/Social Science co-chairsBrian Golding & David Johnston
(UK) (New Zealand)Task team leaders
P&P task teamGeorge Craig
(Germany)
MSCHF task teamJenny Sun (USA)
HIVR task teamBrian Mills (Canada)
C task teamtbd
E task teamBeth Ebert (Australia)
Stakeholders Advisory
Group
WWRP SSC and Secretariat through Paolo Ruti
ICO
WMO Commission for the Atmospheric Sciences
National / Regional Committees
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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year
• Publications– Four HIWeather quarterly newletters were circulated to a large
mailing list of attendees at HIWeather workshops and other interested scientists
– A web site was created under the WMO/WWRP portal, providing access to the Implementation Plan, a recent HIWeather powerpointand the latest Newsletter
– Linked‐in posts have advertised newsletters– A HIWeather overview was published in the WWOSC book– High impact weather requirements featured in a Royal Society
review of environmental observing
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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year
• Conferences and MeetingsHIWeather was presented at:– WMO high impact weather conference in Ningbo, China, January 2015.
Weather Ready Nation symposium & Town Hall meeting at AMS annual meeting in Phoenix, USA, January 2015
– IUGG high impact weather & climate symposium in Prague, July 2015– WCRP Grand Challenge on Extreme Events workshop in Oslo, Norway,
October 2015– In the UK, presentations to Met Office, Royal Met. Soc, NHP & DRG– In China, presentations to CAMS & NMC
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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year• Scientific Progress
– The NAWDEX international science plan was finalized and a web site has been set up.
– The German W2W (Waves to Weather) collaborative institute and WEXICOM project were launched, covering the scope of HIWeatherbetween them.
– Components of the Lake Victoria FDP (part of LVB‐HyNEWS) were proposed to the UK DfID WISER call.
– H2020 bids were supported. – Discussions were held with the Beijing Institute of Urban
Meteorology regarding their SURF project becoming a HIWeatherRDP. A proposal is being prepared.
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HIWeather links to WGs & ProjectsWWRP Working Groups: PDEF, DAOS, WGNMFR, JWGFVR & SERA: links
through cross membership with the HIWeather task teams. Good links were also established with WGTMR during the Ningbo workshop. The task teams are still spinning up their programmes, but it is anticipated that much of their work will be carried forward through the WWRP WGs.
GURME: links were established during the WWOSC conference and have been maintained through Veronique Bouchet, particularly with regard to the proposed Beijing SURF RDP.
PPP & S2S: links were established during WWOSC. Co‐chair Brian Golding is a member of the S2S Extreme Weather sub‐project committee.
WWRP FDP/RDPs: HIWeather has links to several including NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, La Plata,
WMOOMM
HIWeather links to International Initiatives
WCRP: a growing link. A joint session on the role of warnings in adaptation was unsuccessfully proposed to the Paris conference, “Our Common Future Under Climate Change”. Co‐chair Brian Golding contributed to a WCRP Grand Challenge on Extreme Events workshop & it is planned to build on this link.
CBS/SWFDPs: co‐chair Brian Golding has monthly meetings with Ken Mylne who is chair of the SWFDP Steering Group. The proposed Lake Victoria FDP is closely linked to the Southern & Eastern Africa SWFDPs.
IRDR: has similar aims to HIWeather but is rooted in the social sciences. HIWeather has particular synergies with the IRDR RIA (Risk Interpretation and Action) and FORIN (Forensic Investigations of Disasters) projects. Co‐chair David Johnston has recently stepped down as chair of the IRDR Science Committee, but remains closely connected. WWRP has a MoU with IRDR and co‐Chair Brian Golding held useful discussions with the IRDR CEO during the Ningbo conference.
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HIWeather plans for the next year• Kick‐off meeting, April 25‐29, 2016 Met Office, Exeter, UK
• Programme– days 1,2: HIWeather SG & WWRP WGs– days 3‐5: task teams workshop with stakeholders
• Attendance– HIWeather SG & Task Teams– WWRP WG members– Key stakeholders from WCRP, PPP, S2S, SWFDP, RDPs
• Workshop themes– understanding what makes a successful forecast: how it can be
measured & evaluated– observing, monitoring, modelling & verifying weather‐related
hazards, impacts & responses, including applications of social media– factors influencing communication, use & application of weather
information in decision making
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HIWeather task team plans for next year• Km‐scale uncertainty plan for 2017 workshop on km‐scale uncertainty, ensemble verification & ensemble hazard diagnostics
• Building trust develop forecaster guidance in use of km‐scale models• Wind hazard survey requirements & prepare review paper• Fire hazard attend Melbourne, April 2016 workshop with International Fire Management conference prepare fire weather review paper
• Very short range high impact weather forecasts organise 2016/7 workshop on km‐scale observations, nowcasting & NWP data assimilation (possibly attached to WMO Data Assimilation conference) intercomparison project on multi‐scale data assimilation.
• Observing hazards, impacts & responses survey applications of social media plan workshop
• Develop good practice in human impact modeling survey NHMS practices share practice, review survey results & plan follow‐up activities
• Develop good practice in communication collect examples of communication successes/failures share practice, review examples & plan follow‐up activities
• Develop good practice in evaluation Paper on good practice in spatial verification of ensemble forecasts in complex terrain (MESOVICT); share outcomes of JWGFVR user‐oriented verification competition
• NAWDEX field phase• Support for LVB‐HyNEWS field phase planning• Establish links with more FDP/RDPs
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Other HIWeather elements• Membership
– Appoint task team leader & members for Communications theme– Appoint Advisory Group (or share with S2S/PPP)
• Fund raising– UK DfID funding for Africa, including WISER & SHEAR funded projects that support
research in high impact weather relevant to Lake Victoria RDP– Horizon2020 Disaster Reduction call: Proposals are likely relevant to HIWeather.
We will seek to engage with the successful consortium– The co‐chairs will work with Paolo Ruti on Trust Fund income and support for ICO– HIWeather profile will be raised through suitable publication
• Meeting plan– HIWeather kick‐off workshop 25‐29 April, Exeter– WSN16: 25‐29 July, Hong Kong – co‐chair is on programme committee– Workshop on km‐scale model initialization, led by DAOS, possibly with 2016/7
WMO DA conference– UNISDR post‐Sendai science conference, Geneva, 27‐29 January – co‐chairs to
attend – AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, 10‐14 January – representation required– Fire Weather workshop, Melbourne, 11‐15 April – representation required– Royal Meteorological Society conference on High Impact Weather & Climate,
Manchester, 6‐8 July – co‐chair is on organising committee– Quarterly SG meetings by teleconference
WMOOMM
HIWeather
Vulner‐ability & Risk
Multi‐scale
Forecasts
Eval‐uation
Commu‐nication
Predict‐ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Benefits in Operational Forecasting
Data Management & Archiving