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Rocky Mountain Crude Oil Market Dynamics
Tad True, Belle Fourche & Bridger Pipelines
Platts Pipeline Development & Expansion
September 24, 2010
Agenda & Introduction
• Logistical Constraints for Rockies’ Production (North Dakota):
•Inter-Region Constraints: Getting Barrels out of the Rockies
•Intra-Region Constraints: Getting Barrels out of the Williston Basin
•Lease Constraints: Getting Barrels off the Lease
• Baker 300
INTER-REGION CONSTRAINTS
Getting Barrels out of the Rockies
Reno Jct., WY
Clearbrook, MN
Guernsey, WY
Casper, WYSinclair 22,500
Salt Lake City, UTBig West 25,000ChevronTexaco 45,000Holly Corp 25,000Silver Eagle Refining 12,500Tesoro 60,000
Rawlins, WYSinclair 72,000
Denver, COSuncor 88,000
Mandan, NDTesoro 58,000Billings, MT
ConocoPhillips 58,000ExxonMobil 60,000Cenex 56,000 St. Paul, MN
Flint Hills Resources 298,000MarathonAshland 70,000
Hardisty, AB
Cushing, OK
Cheyenne, WYFrontier 52,000
Regina, SK
Newcastle, WYWyoming Refining 12,500
Great Falls, MTMontana Refining 8,200
Chicago, ILExxonMobil 238,000BP PLC 399,000CITGO 159,000
Wood River, ILConocoPhillips 306,000
McPherson, KSNCRA 79,000
El Dorado, KSFrontier 110,000
Rocky Mountain Crude Complex
-100,000
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
Enbridge Platte White Cliffs
Reno Jct., WY
Clearbrook, MN
Guernsey, WY
Casper, WYSinclair 22,500
Rawlins, WYSinclair 72,000
Denver, COSuncor 88,000
Mandan, NDTesoro 58,000Billings, MT
ConocoPhillips 58,000ExxonMobil 60,000Cenex 56,000 St. Paul, MN
Flint Hills Resources 298,000MarathonAshland 70,000
Hardisty, AB
Cheyenne, WYFrontier 52,000
Regina, SK
Newcastle, WYWyoming Refining 12,500
Great Falls, MTMontana Refining 8,200
Chicago, ILExxonMobil 238,000BP PLC 399,000CITGO 159,000
Rocky Mountain Crude ComplexPipeline Export Capacity
-100,000
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
Enbridge Platte White Cliffs Refinery Consumption TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY
Reno Jct., WY
Clearbrook, MN
Guernsey, WY
Casper, WYSinclair 22,500
Rawlins, WYSinclair 72,000
Denver, COSuncor 88,000
Mandan, NDTesoro 58,000Billings, MT
ConocoPhillips 58,000ExxonMobil 60,000Cenex 56,000 St. Paul, MN
Flint Hills Resources 298,000MarathonAshland 70,000
Hardisty, AB
Cheyenne, WYFrontier 52,000
Regina, SK
Newcastle, WYWyoming Refining 12,500
Great Falls, MTMontana Refining 8,200
Chicago, ILExxonMobil 238,000BP PLC 399,000CITGO 159,000
Rocky Mountain Crude ComplexPipeline Export Capacity + Refinery Consumption
Material Balance with Traditional Takeaway Options
(100,000)
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Rocky Mountain Production Imports TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY
Imports
Rocky Mountain Production
Non-Traditional Crude Takeaway Options
Rail
Material Balance with Non-Traditional Takeaway Options
-100,000
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
(100,000)
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
Rocky Mountain Production Imports TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY NON-TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY
Wh
ite C
liffs
1stN
D R
ail Facility
Mo
re R
ail
Enb
ridge
Ph
ase V
I
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Rocky Mountain Production Imports TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY NON-TRADITIONAL TAKE AWAY CAPACITY
Material Balance with Non-Traditional Take-Away Options
Keysto
ne
Effect
Bu
tte K
eyston
e
XL C
on
ne
ction
New
Rail Facilitie
s
Inter-Region Constraints
• After Planned Pipeline Export Options in
addition to Non-Traditional Facilities,
Rockies has sufficient, but inefficient
takeaway capacity.
• Continuing Concerns
– Non-Traditional Options are expensive
– Intra-Regional Transportation Constraints
– Lease Transportation Constraints
INTRA-REGIONAL CONSTRAINTS
Moving Barrels Out of the Williston Basin
Rocky Mountain Crude
Complex Intra-Regional Constraints
161,000
LEASE CONSTRAINTS
Moving Barrels off the lease
PICTURE OF MOUNTRAIL,
DUNN AND MCKENZIE
McKenzie
Dunn
Mountrail
Mountrail, Dunn & McKenzie Counties
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000 Jan-0
0
Jul-00
Jan-0
1
Jul-01
Jan-0
2
Jul-02
Jan-0
3
Jul-03
Jan-0
4
Jul-04
Jan-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Jan-1
0
MOUNTRAIL
DUNN
McKENZIE
TODAY
~$6~$2
Transportation CostsTotal Est. Cost To Guernsey: ~$8
Four Bears~$1.5
~$2.60
Transportation CostsTotal Est. Cost To Guernsey: ~$4.10
BAKER 300
Solutions
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Mush Creek
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering300,000
BPD
INTO
BAKER
300,000
BPD
OUT OF
BAKER
Overview
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Mush Creek
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
INTO Baker1) Little Bear
Details
Tariff Use existing rates
and contracted Four
Bears rates
Space Allocation Pending Shipper
Comments
Required
SupportComplete
Current Capacity 33,000 bpd
Expanded
Capacity60,000bpd
Estimated DRA
Capacity80,000bpd
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Mush Creek
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Details
Tariff or
SurchargeUse Existing Rates
Space Allocation Pending Shipper
Comments
Required
Support
Pending Shipper
Comments
Current Capacity 30,000 bpd (ex Fisher)
40,000 bpd (ex Richey)
Expanded
Capacity60,000bpd
Estimated DRA
Capacity80,000bpd
INTO Baker 2) Poplar Expansion
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Mush Creek
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Details
Tariff Add as new origin to
Four Bears Tariff
Space Allocation Pending Shipper
Comments
Required
Support
Throughput and
Deficiency Agreements
for 30,000bpd
Expanded
Capacity60,000bpd
Estimated DRA
Capacity80,000bpd
INTO Baker 3) Belle Fourche Reversal
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Details
Tariff or Surcharge Increase current 8 cent DRA
surcharge to 25 cents on all
barrels (assumes use of
existing apportionment rules).
Other options being
considered.
Space Allocation Pending Shipper Comments
Required Support Pending Shipper Comments
Current Capacity 118,000 bpd
Expanded
Capacityest. 150,000bpd
OUT OF Baker 1) Baker 150
Powder River
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Details
Tariff or
Surcharge
New Rate of
approximately $1.25-
$1.50/bbl to Guernsey
and Reno
Space Allocation Pending Shipper
Comments
Required
Support
Transportation Service
Agreements for
60,000bpd
Capacity 60,000bpd (out of
Baker)
~40,000bpd to Guernsey
~20,000bpd to Reno
OUT OF Baker 2) Baker 200 – ThunderBird & Donkey Creek
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Details
Space Allocation Pending Shipper
Comments
Required
Support
Pending Shipper
Comments
Capacity 50-100,000bpd
OUT OF Baker 3) Baker 300 –KXL Connection
Powder River
Ft. Laramie/ Guernsey
Alzada
Baker
Poplar
Richey
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Raymond
Alexander
Reno Jct.
Billings
Mandan
Rawlins
Cheyenne
Newcastle
Casper
Osage
Glendive
Fisher Hwy 201
Stanley
Fryburg
Bridger
Pars
hall
Gath
ering
Rocky Mountain Crude Oil Market Dynamics
Tad True, Belle Fourche & Bridger Pipelines
Platts Pipeline Development & Expansion
September 24, 2010