Sameway Leisure《同路人優悠版》325期

325

ISSN 1839-7913 www.sameway.com.au TEL 03 9888 7199 FAX 03 9888 7299 22.03.13–28.03.13

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1722-03-2013 ISSUE 325 Driveway

Editor: Geoff Fickling, Edmund Chow Design: Driveway Design Group Tel: 03 9888 7199 Fax: 03 9888 7299 Suite 7, Level 1, 2-8 Burwood Hwy, Burwood East VIC 3151 [email protected]

Audited17,000

as at Mar 31,2012

Distributed inMelbourne, Sydney,Brisbane & Adelaide

22-03-13 No. 325

( )

20 30“ ” “ ”

Alfa Romeo Enzo Ferrari • Enzo Ferrari

1947

25 Modena 166 Spider Corsa

Bill Lowe • 20 50

French Lombard 1929Philip Island Grand Prix

212 Export Coupe 2 2.6 V12 Mille Miglia

Le Mans 24

1952

7011 Rob Roy Hill Climb •

3 W H Lowe and Co Pty Ltd4,600 4,600

Translate: Edmund Chow

Driveway22-03-13 No. 325

Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-201318

20 50 1954 1 Peter Whitehead

1949 125Dick Cobden • Queensland(

)Southport

1952/53 500 21955 F1 3.0

• Tony GazeLex Davison

19571958 Bathurst Panorama circuit

Alberto Ascari• 1952 1953

1956 1951 212 Export Berlinetta Nino Sacilotto 1954

Monza Sports Stan Coffey •

1956F1 8

1959 250 GT •

Tony Oxley • David McKay • 1961

19511960

Scuderia Veloce1962 Scuderia Veloce Motors

(SVM) 1964 250 LM LM Le Mans 1965 6

12 WH Lowe and Co

250 LM Spencer Martin •

Surfers Paradise, Queensland 12

250 LM “... ...“

1968 250 LM 330 P4Mount Panorama’s

Con-Rod Straight 291

GP Chris Amon • 1968 Tasman SeriesDino 246 F1 Derek Bell -

1 2

Graeme Lawrence • 1970Tasman

1969Sydney Lindfield

Volvo ( ) Porsche

20 701969

Dino 246

Ralph Lowe • W H Lowe and Co RHD

50

1960 - Maranello Concessionaires,

RHD Dino15 -

1973 50

1975 36 1976 39

1974

W H Lowe and Co SVMMaranello Concessionaires

1974 246 Dino 308 GTB 308 GT / 4

246 Dino

365 Boxer 512 BB Boxer 308 GTS

20 80 400i Dino

1983 • SVMBill Brown •

Laurie Sutton Suttons CEOScuderia Veloce Motors(SVM)

– 1997Maranello Concessionaires

1985 541984 29 1985 59 1987 10

1991 2713

20 901995 2004 50 82Suttons

Fiat 1969 • Enzo Ferrari 1988 890 90 10

Piero Lardi-Ferrari

Dino

Ferrari F12 Berlinetta

2.2 L 177kW Si4 2.0L

3.0L8

73,500

8


20 Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-2013


V12Dino

Dino V6 V8V12

V12boxer “ ”

F1V12 20 60 70

12 ?

F1Todt/Brawn/Schumacher / / Steamroller

9 1970 1979 1237 169

• 1975 1977 Jody Scheckter • 1979

1973365 12 1976 512 BB 1984

512 Testarossa “ ”20 50

512 BB 1995 22 12

197912 F1 1980

12

1.5 F1 – V6

8 Suttons

F40 1987 7 21F40 40

V8

348 Spider456 GT 5.5 V12

F40 F50 V12

456 GT 550 Maranello V12

F355 F1 manual shift -

F355 360 Modena 3.6360 Modena Spider

2002 Enzo F40 F50 360 Challenge GT 360 GT

456 M 575 M F430

Nations CupGT Production

2000 2004 Michael Schumacher

2005 Suttons European Automotive Imports EAI

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“

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Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-201322


2008 F430 Scuderia 5California

California 2008 10

2008 10 Zagame

16 430 Scuderia16M

16M 2009 Ferrari California 6 7458 Italia

2010 Amedeo FelisaFerrari Maserati Sydney

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2011 FF Steve WyattCoppa Shell

2012 458 GT3 Bathurst 12Bathurst

60 FF Ferrari 458 SpiderF12 Berlinetta

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2013

67%63%

2007 2010

30 200 10050

12012

7.5%

• Mervyn Lewis /

8%

2010 2011 10.4% 9.2%

2008 30%

10%7%

2.5% 30

2010 2018

20112019

1979

The China miracle. Is it coming to an end?

阿德萊德市區唐人街 CHINATOWN 金源超市東方超市順發超市香港食品中心裕記食品國際超市地理旅遊社

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Notwithstanding anxieties about the debt crisis in Europe and the ‘now-you-see-it, now-you- don’t’ US recovery, few things matter as much for the rest of 2012 as what China does—and not just for Australia. China’s growth over the last decade, in combination with that of other emerging economies, has helped underpin the international economy post-crisis and prop up the ailing developed world.

In fact, what China has done can only be described as astonishing. Starting from a low base three decades ago, China is now the world’s second largest economy, a manufacturing powerhouse and a vast source of global savings. It generates extraordinary economic statistics, consuming 67% of the world’s corn, 63% of iron ore, buys more mobile phones than the rest of the world combined, and is the largest exporter of solar panels. It has passed the United States in steel production, exports, fixed investment, manufacturing output, car sales, patents granted, total energy consumption (crude oil, natural gas, nuclear power and renewables), and even spending on groceries.

Former Australian Prime Minister (2007-2010) Kevin Rudd recently noted that “the pace of change [in China] outstrips our analytical frameworks for comprehending it.” How true! China has transformed itself from a rural to a predominantly urban nation, achieving in 30 years what took about 200 years in Britain, 100 years in the United States and 50 years in Japan. Not surprisingly, the ten fastest growing cities in the world are all in China.

Yet, despite these remarkable accomplishments, there is considerable unease about China’s growth prospects. In January of this year, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics warned that “2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges so we should be fully prepared.” And so it has turned out to be, with a major political crisis (the Bo Xilai affair) clouding the year of the leadership transition, and the lowering of the official growth rate target in March to 7.5%. This was followed by a disappointing second quarter annual growth rate of 7.6%. These events have set off a chorus of doomsayers saying that the Chinese export-oriented, high investment growth model was unsustainable all along.

The China critics have been wrong before and, for Australia’s sake at least, it must be hoped that they are wrong again. To this end, a number of points can be made.

First, as the Chinese population ages and the ranks of those of working-age fall relatively, China no longer needs to grow quite so quickly as the 8% target previously seen as necessary to maintain social cohesion.

Second, there is an element of statistical illusion as a result of the higher-than-expected growth rates of 10.4% and 9.2% in 2010 and 2011. Subsequent GDP numbers are being compared with a higher base, as the Chinese economy is 30% larger than it was in 2008.

Third, the Chinese economy does not grow steadily year after year. It experiences economic cycles, and rather large ones. The difference is that the cycle operates around a strong upward trend. It is more like a sine wave around a 45 degree line, not like one around a near horizontal line as observed for OECD countries. Uplift remains even during the downswing phase.

Fourth, the power of compound growth remains. Suppose that China slows from its previous 10% growth to 7% per annum. Its economy would instead double in size every 10 years instead of every 8 years. The United States would take almost 30 years to do the same if it grows at 2.5% per annum.

Fifth, using 2010 data, my co-author, Richard Iley, and I forecast that the Chinese economy was likely to overtake the United States economy and become the world’s largest economy measured in US dollar terms by the end of 2018 (the articles were published in Accounting Forum and Taylor’s Business Review in 2011). We have since recalculated the forecasts based on the current trajectories of the two economies. Surprisingly, the result is unchanged because the Chinese economy grew faster than we (and others) expected in 2011. China may still be on track to become the biggest economy end-2018. Even with growth scaled back China would appear to be fast closing the gap on the United States.

Such straight-line extrapolations are obviously fraught. After all, in 1979 Japan was predicted to take the Number One mantle from America. Will China also falter? Japan’s population then was one-half of the United States, and it needed to be twice as productive. China’s population is four times America’s, and only needs to be one-quarter as productive to exceed US output. This would seem not just possible, but virtually inevitable.

Mervyn Lewis is recognised as a world-expert in monetary economics, international finance and financial systems. He is the Professor of Banking and Finance in the School of Commerce and a member of UniSA’s Centre for Applied Financial Studies.

*The translation is done by Sameway

Magazine. UniSA and Professor Mervyn Lewis take no responsibility for any translation errors.

* unisa.edu.au/Research/CAFS

www.sameway.com.auwww.sameway.com.au

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' '' '

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