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SHANGHAILUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2015上海豪宅市场报告 2015 第四季度
RESEARCH 研究报告
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SHANGHAI LUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2015
In October 2015, the Central Bank lowered both the interest rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for the fifth time in 2015. The five-year benchmark loan interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 4.9%, while RRR was cut by 0.5 percentage point.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development implemented a new policy, allowing cross-city application for mortgage from Housing Provident Fund (HPF). This not only provides an alternative financing tool for home buying in different cities, but also reduces purchaser’s buying costs. It is expected to accelerate the absorption of housing inventories in third and fourth-tier cities by attracting more buyers to enter the market.
NEW LUXURY HOME SUPPLY SURGED 440% Y-O-Y AND 204% Q-O-Q IN Q4 2015More favourable policies were released in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015, including a cut in the interest rate by a further 0.25 percentage point.
Developers with a positive prospect for the future housing market accelerated the release of new luxury residential projects in Q4.
Eased credit policies and sufficient market supply attributed to a surge in the sales volume of luxury homes in Q4.
Shanghai’s investment market witnessed an en-bloc transaction of serviced apartment in Q4: Gohigh Fund acquired the 261-unit Belvedere Serviced Apartments located in Zhongshan Park for RMB1.2 billion from New World Development.
In 2016, the Shanghai luxury home market will continue to be under the pressure of absorbing existing unsold space.
TABLE 1Shanghai luxury residential sales market indicators
Indicator Q4 2015 figure Q-o-Q change Outlook(Q1 2016)
New supply 800,000 sq m ↑ 204.4% ↘
Sold area 385,392 sq m ↑ 61.3% ↘
Price RMB86,049 / sq m ↑ 3.1% ↗
Yield 2.8% ↑ 0.1 percentage point ↔
Source: Knight Frank Research
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RESEARCHSHANGHAI LUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2015
TABLE 2Major luxury apartment sales transactions, Q4 2015
District Development Zone Area(sqm)
Price(RMB million)
Unit price(RMB / sqm)
Pudong Tomson Riviera High 595 149.8 251,558
Pudong Ocean One High 621 113.3 182,455
Huangpu Lakeville Luxe Low 192 23.5 122,246
Xuhui The Palace Low 197 21.7 110,131
Huangpu The Bund House High 191 20.2 109,780
Huangpu Dynasty Garden Low 162 14.9 91,699
Hongkou The Upper High 168 12.7 75,802
Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank ResearchNote: all transactions are subject to confirmation
TABLE 3Major luxury villa sales transactions, Q4 2015
District Development Type Area(sqm)
Price(RMB
million)
Unit price(RMB / sqm)
Pudong Dongjiao Sovereign
PalaceDetached
house672 110.0 163,765
Minhang Forbes Park Townhouse 357 57.0 159,878
Pudong Park Mansion Townhouse 226 28.1 125,463
Changning Elegant GardenDetached
house384 41.7 108,399
Putuo The Amethyst Townhouse 367 31.4 85,463
Yangpu Grand Mansion Townhouse 351 25.3 72,197
Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank ResearchNote: all transactions are subject to confirmation
Amid slower economic growth, many multinational companies tried to reduce the number of expatriates and lower the housing budget, leading to a slight decrease of overall occupancy rate to 93.8% in Q4, but rents remained stable at RMB185.4 per sqm per month. Some serviced apartments were fully occupied as demand for small units increased.
Active sales in the luxury residential market drove up the average sales price to RMB86,049 per sqm, up 14% year on year (Y-o-Y) (See Table 1).
Among the new projects launched in Q4, One Majesty in Suhe Creek Area, Oceanwide International in the Huangpu riverside area and The Upper in Sichuan North Road achieved sales rates of 74%, 86% and 96% respectively, with transaction prices averaging RMB92,000 per sqm, RMB94,000 per sqm and RMB82,000 per sqm.
Downtown luxury apartments remained appealing to investors, evidenced by the Q-o-Q price increases of 3.4% and 3.5% in Jing’an District and Huangpu District, reaching RMB99,703 and RMB100,264 per sqm respectively (See Figure 1), higher than the growth rate in the overall luxury market.
RENT AND PRICE
Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research
FIGURE 1New luxury home sales prices by district, Q4 2015
RMB per sqm
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During Q4 2015, new luxury home supply surged 440% Y-o-Y and 204% quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) to 800,000 sqm, the highest level in the past two years. Located in the traditional luxury residential area of Xintiandi, both Lakeville and Dynasty Garden launched their new phases of 183 and 108 luxury home units respectively.
Developed by Oceanwide Holdings, Oceanwide International was launched in Q4 with 44 luxury units. As the first luxury project in the Dongjiadu area, Huangpu District, the sales prices of Oceanwide International ranges from RMB80,000 to RMB90,000 per sqm.
The Palace, the first luxury residential project developed by Financial Street Holdings in Shanghai, launched 84 apartments in December in the Caojiadu Area of Jing’an District with sales prices averaging over RMB90,000 per sqm.
The further easing of mortgage rates boosted the confidence of buyers with rigid and upgrading demand in Shanghai’s luxury residential market. This resulted in a sales volume of
Though the luxury home market performed well in 2015, the amount of unsold new space increased with more new supply and larger flat sizes last year. In 2015, luxury new supply reached 1.34 million sqm with a significant increase of 145% Y-o-Y.
The Shanghai residential land market witnessed several “land king” transactions
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
OUTLOOK
FIGURE 2Primary luxury residential sales volume and average price index, Q1 2008 to Q4 2015
Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research
Sales volume of new luxury housing (Left)Luxury housing price index (Right)
385,392 sqm, up 61% compared with the previous quarter (See Figure 2). The sales volume of luxury homes priced over RMB100,000 per sqm exceeded 60,000 sqm to reach 66,144 sqm, a significant increase of 68% Q-o-Q.
Downtown luxury units, which remained the first choice for buyers with high
budgets, recorded a sales volume of 103,166 sqm, accounting for 27% of the total luxury homes sales in Q4.
in 2015, indicating luxury home supply will
continue to grow in the future.
The average luxury home price is expected
to increase by 5% in the coming 12
months.
With the traditional off-season during the
Chinese New Year period, it is anticipated
that the sales volume of luxury homes will
decrease in Q1 2016, while average sales
prices will remain stable.
The Upper, developed by Shui On Land,
will launch 352 apartments in Q1 2016,
with sales prices expected to reach over
RMB80,000 per sqm.
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研究报告上海写字楼豪宅市场报告 2015年第四季度
2015年10月份，央行在年内第五次降息
降准，金融机构五年期贷款基准利率下
调0.25个百分点至4.9%。同时存款准备
金率再次降低0.5个百分点。
第四季度出台的关于公积金异地提取贷
款政策不仅拓宽了购房者在异地置业时
的融资渠道，而且大大降低了购房者的
购房成本。对于缓解目前三、四线住宅
市场高库存的局面起到一定作用，购房
者入市的意愿也因此有所增加。
开发商对于楼市发展持乐观态度，在第
四季度纷纷加大项目推入力度。
信贷政策宽松、市场供应充足，促成第
四季度豪宅交易量大涨。
投资市场方面，第四季度上海投资市场
发生一宗酒店式公寓整购案例。高和资
本以人民币12亿元的价格向新世界发展
收购了位于中山公园的柏华丽服务式公
寓，共计261套酒店式公寓单位。
2016年上海豪宅市场仍然面临去库存
压力。
第四季度豪宅新增供应同比和环比分别大涨440%和204%市场利好政策持续出台，信贷利率再降0.25个百分点。
表一
上海豪宅销售市场参考指标
指标 2015年第四季度数字 按季变幅预测
(2016年第一季度)
新增供应 800,000 平方米 ↑204.4% ↘
销售面积 385,392 平方米 ↑61.3% ↘
价格 人民币86,049元/平方米 ↑3.1% ↗
回报率 2.8% ↑0.1 个百分点 ↔
资料来源：莱坊研究部
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表二
豪宅公寓销售成交范例，2015年第四季度
区域 项目 楼层面积
（平方米）售价
(百万元人民币)单价
(人民币/平方米)
浦东 汤臣一品大厦 高区 595 149.8 251,558
浦东 鹏利海景公寓 高区 621 113.3 182,455
黄浦 翠湖天地隽荟都 低区 192 23.5 122,246
徐汇 嘉御庭 低区 197 21.7 110,131
黄浦 绿城黄浦湾 高区 191 20.2 109,780
黄浦 淡水湾花园 低区 162 14.9 91,699
虹口 瑞虹新城怡庭 高区 168 12.7 75,802
资料来源：上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注：所有成交均有待落实
表三
高档别墅销售成交范例，2015年第四季度
区域 项目 楼层面积
（平方米）售价
(百万元人民币)单价
(人民币/平方米)
浦东 翡翠别墅 独栋 672 110.0 163,765
闵行 臻园 联排 357 57.0 159,878
浦东 铂悦滨江 联排 226 28.1 125,463
长宁 上海西郊明苑 独栋 384 41.7 108,399
普陀 中海紫御豪庭 联排 367 31.4 85,463
杨浦 中建大公馆 联排 351 25.3 72,197
资料来源：上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注：所有成交均有待落实
租赁市场上，由于经济疲软，许多跨
国企业外派员工来沪数量有所减少，其
住房预算也相应缩减，致使整体入住
率环比微跌至93.8%，但租金维持在每
月每平方米人民币185.4元，与三季度
基本持平。小户型公寓在租赁市场上
的需求不断上升，不少服务式公寓呈满
租状态。
豪宅市场交投活跃，推高平均价格至
每平方米人民币86,049元，同比大涨
14%(见表一)。
第四季新开盘的项目，位于苏河湾的
中粮天悦壹号、黄浦滨江的泛海国际社
区以及四川北路的瑞虹新城怡庭分别
取得了74%、86%以及96%的销售率，
成交价格分别在每平方米人民币92,000
元、94,000元以及82,000元。
市中心的豪宅公寓项目仍然深受投资
者的青睐，第四季度静安区与黄浦区
豪宅价格分别为每平方米人民币99,073
元和100,264元（见图一），环比涨幅
为3.4%和3.5%，涨幅均高于豪宅平均
水平。
资料来源：上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部
租金与售价
图一
各区一手高档公寓平均售价，2015年第四季度
人民币元/平方米
7
研究报告上海写字楼豪宅市场报告 2015年第四季度
虽然2015年豪宅市场表现优异，但由于
近年来豪宅产品在户型设计上以大户型
为主，2015年供应量也较大，因此豪宅
存量有所增加。2015年豪宅新供达到约
134万平方米，同比大涨145%。
2015年上海的住宅土地市场频繁出现地
王，代表未来豪宅供应将会越来越多。
2016年豪宅市场仍然以去化新增供应及
过往存量为主导。
第四季度，上海一手豪宅市场新增供应
约为80万平方米，同比大涨440%，环
比上涨204%，是近两年新增供应最多
的一个季度。位于传统豪宅区域新天地
板块的翠湖天地及淡水湾花园均在第四
季度加推新一期项目，翠湖天地隽荟和
淡水湾花园二期分别有183套及108套精
装公寓入市，市场价格超过每平方米人
民币10万元。
泛海控股在第四季度推出其位于黄浦区
董家渡首个豪宅项目泛海国际社区，共
计44套精装公寓，售价在每平方米人民
币8万至9万元。
静安区曹家渡板块在12月份推出了金融
街地产首个上海豪宅项目——金融街融
御，总计84套精装公寓，平均售价超过
每平方米人民币9万元。
按揭利率持续降低惠及上海豪宅市场，
刚性置业及改善需求大量释放，使得
第四季度上海豪宅市场交易量达到38.5
万平方米，环比上涨61% (见图二)。
第四季度单价在每平方米人民币10万
元以上的豪宅交易量突破6万平方米至
66,144平方米，环比大涨68%。
作为高预算购房者的首选，市中心豪宅
产品第四季度成交10.3万平方米，占总
交易量的27%。
供应与需求
展望
图二
一手豪宅成交量与豪宅售价指数，2008年第一季度至2015年第四季度
资料来源：上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部
千平方米
我们预计未来12个月豪宅价格将继续有
5%的上涨空间。
由于春节前后均为市场淡季，2016年第
一季度的豪宅市场交易量将有所下降，
平均售价将保持平稳。
瑞安地产开发的瑞虹新城怡庭将会在第
一季度加推352套公寓，预计售价超过
每平方米人民币8万元。
Q1 2006=100一手豪宅成交量（左轴）
豪宅价格指数（右轴）
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