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SHANGHAI RETAIL
market report
上海商铺市场报告 Q1 2014
2014 年第一季度
RETAIL MARKET
商铺市场
RESEARCH
研究报告
2
Q1 2014 shanghai retail MARKET REPORT
Shanghai retail market monitor
Indicator Q1 2014 figure QoQ change Outlook
(Q2 2014)
New supply
0 Sqm n/a ↗
Rental
58.1 RMB / sqm / day 0.9% ↗
Vacancy rate
7.7% 1.9 percentage points ↔
Capital value
220,000 RMB / sqm 2.1% ↔
Yield
6.3% 0.1 percentage point ↔
Source: Knight Frank
NEW SHOPPING CENTRES IN CENTRAL
LOCATIONS MEET MARKET EXPECTATION
AND PERFORM WELL
Shanghai’s retail property market was relatively
quiet, with no new shopping centres opened in
the first quarter.
Rents of ground-floor retail units in the city’s
core commercial areas reached RMB58.1 per sqm
per day, an increase of 0.9% quarter on
quarter—a similar growth rate to that of the
previous quarter.
The overall vacancy rate of shopping centres in
core commercial areas dropped 1.9 percentage
points to 7.7%, with new shopping centres such
as K11, Jing’an Kerry Centre and iapm achieving
full occupancy within a year of opening.
On 28 January, the local government announced
its ‘Planning Shanghai’s Retail Network (2013–
2020)’, identifying 14 municipal-level retail areas
and signifying the entering of a new era for the
city’s retail market.
In the coming 12 months, Shanghai’s retail
market will remain buoyant with a number of
new retail centres now in the pre-leasing stage
and scheduled for completion soon.
Shanghai Arch Walk, the retail portion of
Shanghai Arch in Changning, will have its soft
opening in the fourth quarter of this year with a
total retail gross floor area (GFA) of 85,000 sqm.
Meanwhile, Crystal Galleria in Jing’an, with a
retail GFA of 70,000 sqm, will soft open this year
and officially open in 2015.
On the retailers’ side, fast-fashion brands have
accelerated their expansion plans in Shanghai.
China’s first Abercrombie & Fitch store has
opened in Jing’an Kerry Centre in April, while Old
Navy’s first China store opened in the Jing’an
Temple area in March. Old Navy has already
signed a leasing agreement with Shanghai Arch
Walk to secure its second store covering 2,000
sqm.
3
KnightFrank.com.cn
Source: Knight Frank
Rents of ground-floor retail space in
Shanghai’s core commercial areas
increased a marginal 0.9% to
RMB58.1 per sqm per day in the first
quarter.
Grand Gateway 66 in Xuhui and Plaza
66 in Jing’an commanded the highest
asking rents, both reaching RMB90
per sqm per day, followed by Raffles
City in the People’s Square area,
which commanded an average asking
rent of RMB85 per sqm per day.
At present, the average rent of
ground-floor retail premises in core
areas range from RMB60 to RMB90
per sqm per day.
For pre-lease projects such as Soho
Fuxing Plaza in Huangpu and
Shanghai Arch in Changning, rents of
ground-floor retail units are RMB15–
25 and RMB25–30 per sqm per day,
respectively.
Major retail property leasing transactions, Q1 2014
District Building Floor / unit Trade Area
(sq m)
Rent
(RMB / sqm /
day)
Huangpu Soho Fuxing
Plaza Level 1 units F&B 200 18.5
Huangpu Tomorrow
Square Level 2 units Gym 3,100 4.0
Jing’an Mall 818 Level 3 units Apparel 66 22.0
Jing’an In Point Level 2 units Personal
Care 169 8.0
Jing’an Nanjing
West Road Levels 1-2 units Apparel 2,300 33.0
Source: Knight Frank
Major retail property sales transactions, Q1 2014
District Building Floor / unit Area
(sq m)
Price
(RMB
million)
Price
(RMB / sqm)
Zhabei Suhe Creek Level 1 unit 336.3 45.6 135,688
Putuo Union
Tower Level 1 unit 46.0 2.9 63,131
Pudong Hengyue
Plaza Level 1 unit 99.9 8.1 81,088
Minhang Sincere
Centre Levels 1-4 units 3,888 157.5 40,500
Putuo The Core of
Centre Level 1 unit 139.3 6.6 47,596
Source: Knight Frank / Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre
Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation.
RENTS AND PRICES
Shanghai ground floor retail rents in core areas
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RMB / sqm /
day
4
Q1 2014 shanghai retail MARKET REPORT
Shanghai commercial land transaction volume and value (Q1 2010-Q3 2013)
In the first quarter of 2014, the retail
property market was relatively quiet with
no new shopping centres opened in core
commercial areas.
The overall vacancy rate in core
commercial areas dropped 1.9 percentage
points to 7.7%. New shopping centres
such as K11, Jing’an Kerry Centre and
iapm achieved full occupancy within a year
of opening. However, malls such as Mall
818 and Plaza 353 will face renovation, as
their vacancy rates have increased to the
unsustainable levels of 50%.
Shanghai core area shopping mall annual supply and stock
Source: Knight Frank
Shopping centres opened in 2013, such as
K11, Jing’an Kerry Centre and Global Harbor,
have all been well received by the market
with both rents and occupancy rates
gradually increasing.
However, newly opened luxury department
stores, such as Takashimaya, have witnessed
limited sales and popularity. Golden Eagle
International Shopping Centre adjacent to
Plaza 66 will be closed for renovation, due to
the poor performance.
The disparity in performance between
shopping malls and luxury department
stores indicates that the relatively new
format of shopping malls has been widely
accepted by Shanghai consumers, but
department stores are experiencing tough
times with an uncertain future.
The vacancy rates of traditional shopping
streets such as Huaihai Middle Road and
Sichuan North Road increased slightly as
retailers preferred renting space in shopping
centres for their more comprehensive
facilities.
In the first quarter, the local government
announced its ‘Planning Shanghai’s Retail Network
(2013–2020)’ proposal, identifying 14
municipal-level retail centres to be established in
Shanghai by 2020. They include Nanjing East
Road; Nanjing West Road; Sichuan North Road; Yu
Garden, Xujiahui; Middle Ring Road (Zhenbei);
Huaihai Middle Road; Little Lujiazui; Zhangyang
Road; Wujiaochang; Zhongshan Park; Shanghai
International Tourism and Resorts Zone; Hongqiao
CBD and long term, Daning and Zhenru.
Compared with the previous planning proposal in
2009, Daning in Zhabei and Hongqiao CBD are
promoted to municipal-level retail centres, while
New Hongqiao Area is degraded to district-level.
The plan also stated that the total stock of retail
properties will reach a GFA of 75–80 million sqm
by 2020 and the total sales of consumer goods
and commodities will see average annual
increases of 8% and 10%, respectively.
MARKET ACTIVITIES
Supply AND DEMAND
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4million sqm million sqm
Annual Supply (left) Stock (right)
5
KnightFrank.com.cn
第一季度未见购物中心新开业，新供市场较为平静。
核心商圈首层租金保持增长，环比增幅与上季度持平，
租金小幅微升0.9%至每天每平方米人民币58.1元。
核心商圈购物中心的平均空置率较上季度下跌1.9个百
分点至7.7%，2013年新开业的K11、静安嘉里中心以及
iapm均已在开业不到一年的时间内实现满租。
1月28日，《上海市商业网点布局规划（2013-2020）》
规划方案公示，确定14个市级商业中心，上海零售市场
迈入发展新格局。
未来一年上海的零售市场将继续保持活跃，多个商业项
目正在积极进行预租，即将推入市场。
位于长宁区的金虹桥国际中心商场——金光绿庭的建
筑面积约为85,000平方米，将于今年第四季度试营业。
位于静安区的富邦晶品中心商场建筑面积约70,000平
方米，计划于今年试营业，明年正式开业。
零售商方面，新入市场的快时尚品牌也加快了在上海的
布点计划。中国大陆首家阿贝克隆比&费奇
（Abercrombie & Fitch）将于4月份在上海静安嘉里中
心开业。老海军（Old Navy）继中国首店在3月份在静
安寺开业后，第二家店签约金光绿庭，店铺面积约为
2,000平方米。
上海商铺市场观察
指标 2014 年第一季度数字 按季变幅 预测
(2014 年第二季)
新增供应
0 平方米 不适用 ↗
首层租金
58.1 人民币/平方米/天 0.9% ↗
空置率
7.7% 1.9 个百分点 ↔
资本价值
220,000 人民币/平方米 2.1% ↔
回报率
6.3% 0.1 个百分点 ↔
资料来源：莱坊
中心商圈新开购物中心表现强劲，实现市场预期
6
2014年第一季度
上海商铺市场报告
资料来源：莱坊
上海核心商圈首层租金
资料来源：莱坊
上海主要商铺租赁成交，2014 年第一季度
区域 项目 楼层 / 单元 业态 面积
(平方米)
租金
（人民币 /
平方米 /
天）
黄浦 Soho 复兴广
场 一层单元 餐饮 200 18.5
黄浦 明天广场 二层单元 健身房 3,100 4.0
静安 818 广场 三层单元 服饰 66 22.0
静安 四季坊 二层单元 个人护理 169 8.0
静安 南京西路街
铺 一至二层单元 服饰 2,300 33.0
资料来源：莱坊
上海主要商铺买卖成交，2014 年第一季度
区域 项目 楼层 / 单元 面积
（平方米）
总价
(人民币百
万元)
成交价格
（人民币 /
平方米）
闸北 苏河湾华侨
城中心 一层单元 336.3 45.6 135,688
普陀 汇融大厦 一层单元 46.0 2.9 63,131
浦东 恒越广场 一层单元 99.9 8.1 81,088
闵行 虹桥协信中
心 一至四层单元 3,888 157.5 40,500
普陀 天汇中心 一层单元 139.3 6.6 47,596
资料来源：莱坊 / 上海房地产交易中心 注︰所有成交均有待落实。
租金及价格
及价格 核心商圈首层租金环比增幅与上季度持
平，租金小幅微升 0.9%至每天每平方米人
民币 58.1 元。
徐汇区的港汇恒隆广场和静安区的恒隆广
场分别录得全市最高租金，租金报价为每
天每平方米人民币 90 元；紧随其后，人民
广场商圈的来福士广场录得租金报价为每
平方米每天人民币 85 元。
目前，核心商圈热门商场的首层租金大概
保持在每天每平方米 60-90 元的水平。
从预租项目来看，SOHO 复兴广场的首层
租金报价约在每天每平方米人民币 15-25
元，而金虹桥国际中心的首层租金报价约
在每天每平方米人民币 25-30 元。
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
人民币/平方米
/天
7
KnightFrank.com.cn
2014 年第一季度，新供市场较为平静，核心商
圈没有新开业购物中心。
第一季度，核心商圈购物中心的平均空置率较上
季度下跌 1.9 个百分点至 7.7%。去年新开业的
K11、静安嘉里中心以及 iapm 均已在开业不到
一年的时间内实现满租；然而，一些商场例如
818 广场和 353 广场则因人气不足面临改造，空
置率上升至 50%左右。
去年开业的多个购物中心，例如 K11、静安嘉里中心、
iapm 和月星环球港等，目前从营运状况来看，均在
市场上获得良好反响，自开业以来，出租率持续攀升，
租金也在逐步提升中。
而反观新开业的高档百货如高岛屋，开业以来销售不
佳，人气略显不足。毗邻恒隆的金鹰购物中心也因生
意不佳而即将停业改造。
购物中心的火爆与高档百货的遇冷形成鲜明对比，由
此可见经过数年发展，购物中心这一新的零售业态已
经被上海消费者广泛接受，百货业的发展受到严峻考
验，未来发展方向有很多不确定因素。
由于零售商更乐意选择入住配套完善的购物中心，以
淮海中路、四川北路为代表的传统街铺空置率略有上
升。
上海核心商圈商场新供应量及存量
资料来源：莱坊
第一季度，《上海市商业网点布局规划
（2013-2020）》规划方案公示，上海将在 2020 年
前规划 14 个市级商业中心。这 14 个市级商业中心
分别是南京东路商业中心、南京西路商业中心、四
川北路商业中心、豫园商城商业中心、徐家汇商业
中心、中环（真北）商业中心、淮海中路商业中心、
小陆家嘴──张杨路商业中心、五角场商业中心、
中山公园商业中心、国际旅游度假区商业中心、虹
桥商务区商业中心、大宁商业中心（远期）和真如
商业中心（远期）。
与 2009 年的商业网点规划相比，这次新规划的调
整重点主要是闸北区的大宁和虹桥商务区晋升为
市级商业中心，而在 2009 年晋级为市级的新虹桥
商圈这次则被降级到了地区级。此外规划指出至
2020 年全市商业网点建筑总量宜控制在
7,500-8,000 万平方米，预计社会消费品零售总额年
均增长 8%左右，商品销售总额年均增长 10%左右。
供应与需求
市场动态
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4 百万平方米 百万平方米
年新增供应（左轴） 存量（右轴）
8
2014年第一季度
上海商铺市场报告
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Research & Consultancy
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Director, Head of Research & Consultancy
Greater China
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Regina Yang
Director, Head of Research & Consultancy
Shanghai
+86 21 6032 1728
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Associate Director,
Head of Research & Consultancy
Beijing
+86 10 6113 8022
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Director, Retail Services
+86 21 6032 1757
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