SHANGHAIINduStrIAl MArket report Q1 2019上海工业市场季度报告 2019 年第一季度

RESEARCH 研究报告

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RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q1 2019

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Logistics rent (left) QoQ growth rate (right)

The China’s Logistics Industry Sentiment Index released by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation in March 2019 was recorded at 52.6%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month; China’s Warehouse Storage Index increased significantly by 10.1 percentage points to 57.2%.

As the manufacturing sector began to get back to normal, the production and operation activities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain gradually recovered, leading to the significant increase in the logistics business. The logistics demand for steel, chemical sector, building materials and other major commodities, machinery and other manufacturing sector, as well as the industries related to livelihood including agricultural products has rebounded significantly. The economic activity of major sectors has become more active.

Influenced by the government’s policy of stabilizing the investment, the demand for warehouse properties will be well

In the last month of Q1, PMI increased 1.3 percentage points QoQ to 50.5%. The manufacturing sector has demonstrated steady growth.

In Q1, the gross industrial output value of large-scale industrial enterprises in Shanghai reached RMB783.067 billion, down 4.8% YoY. Gross industrial output value rose to RMB284.829 billion in March, up 0.9% YoY.

The gross industrial output value of the six key industries decreased 5.7% YoY to RMB517.689 billion, with three of them trending upwards and three downwards. The output values of “electronic information product manufacturing”, “auto manufacturing” and “fine steel manufacturing” decreased by 7%, 17.2% and 4.4% YoY respectively. The output values of “petrochemicals and fine chemical manufacturing”, “complete equipment manufacturing” and “biopharmaceutical manufacturing” increased by 5.2%, 2.3% and 10.2% YoY respectively.

In Q1, the total number of signed foreign direct investment (FDI) contracts in Shanghai totalled 1,411, an increase of 43.4% YoY. The total contractual FDI value increased by 33.7% YoY to US$14.097 billion; Realised FDI achieved US$4.468 billion, an increase of 20.3% YoY.

To reduce the tax burden on enterprises and promote the high-quality development of manufacturing sector, the Government Report issued in 2019 pointed out that the Value-added tax (VAT) rate on manufacturing enterprises would be lowered from 16% to 13% since 1 April. More tech start-ups will benefit from the recent relaxation of the standards for the classification of small and micro businesses to pay less tax.

On 7 January, Shanghai’s largest foreign-invested manufacturing project——Tesla Gigafactory started construction in Lingang Industrial Area. With an investment of RMB50

billion, the project has a land area of 0.86 million sqm. Since 2018, SAIC Motor and Bordrin have settled in Lingang, Shanghai. The addition of Tesla’s investment has accelerated the growth of new energy vehicles (NEV) sector in Lingang, and a world-class NEV industrial cluster is being formed.

As a major cluster of advanced manufacturing sector in Shanghai, Baoshan District continued to promote industrial transformation and upgrading through attracting high-quality industrial projects. On 13 March, with a total investment of RMB76 billion and a total site area of 6,009 mu (1 mu=666.67 sqm), the construction of 66 significant industrial projects were kicked off in Baoshan. These projects are mainly concentrated in Shanghai Industrial Park of Robotics, Baoshan City Industrial Park and Baoshan Industrial Park.

In 2019, Shanghai will make an effort in propelling 5G network construction and focus on supporting 5G key technology. As the 5G era approaches, we expect that the new model of “Internet of Things + AI” will emerge in the logistics sector and the intelligent logistics will be the first sector covered by 5G. On 18 March, JD.com announced that it would set up China’s first 5G intelligent logistics demonstration park in Jiading, Shanghai.

Looking forward to the second quarter (Q2), given the recovery of business activities after the Spring Festival, the demand of storage space will see significant increase. The introduction of new policy on VAT reduction will benefit manufacturing sector and reduce the tax burden on enterprises. Besides, the easing of Sino-US trade tension will lead to an optimistic sentiment in the market. Both logistics warehouse and factory rents are expected to grow steadily with an increase of 4% YoY while the vacancy rate of logistics warehouse will continue to drop.

loGIStICS propertIeS

Source: knight Frank research

loGIStICS WAreHouSe reNtS reMAINed uNCHANGed WHIlSt FACtorY reNtS INCreASed 1.6% QoQ IN Q1 2019In the first quarter (Q1), manufacturing in China has rebounded gradually. Both the China’s manufacturing purchasing Managers Index (pMI) and China’s logistics Industry Sentiment Index picked up again in March.

FIGure 1Average rent and QoQ growth rate of logistics warehouse properties

supported by the economic stability. In Q1, the rent of logistics warehouse remained at RMB1.58 per sqm per day and the vacancy rate remained unchanged at 7.5%.

In Q1, the leasing market of the logistics warehouse sector was active.

For example, DHL leased 9,000 sqm

of warehouse space at Goodman

Waigaoqiao Distribution Centre. VX

Logistic Properties, Vanke Group’s

logistics brand, leased 21,000 sqm of

warehouse space in Jinshan Fengjing

Logistics Park.

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RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q1 2019

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Baoshan Minhang Qingpu Jiading Songjiang Jinshan Fengxian

million RMB/Mu

On the supply side, the Government Report issued in 2019 emphasized promoting the development of advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries and speeding up the industrial construction of major projects. Therefore, advanced manufacturing industries have gained priority in obtaining industrial lands, leading to increasing difficulties in finding industrial locations for mid-to-low manufacturing companies.

On the demand side, due to the approaching production peak season and the implementation of a series of incentive policies, the manufacturing sector has started to recover, then drove up the demand for factory spaces. Therefore, factory properties are still in short supply.

In Q1 2019, Liando U Valley has a total of 25,000 sqm new factory space completed in Shanghai Songjiang Chedun International Enterprise Park. The project has seven buildings, including four single-floor standard factories and three two-storey standard factories. Each building has a total gross floor area (GFA) from 800 to 6,000 sqm.

The factory rent in Shanghai continued its upward trend in Q1. The average rent for single-floor factory space rose to RMB1.26 per sqm per day, a QoQ increase of 1.6%.

In terms of districts, industrial factory rents of Pudong and Minhang districts

FACtorIeS

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Factory Rent (left) QoQ growth rate (right)

Source: knight Frank research

FIGure 2Average rent and QoQ growth rate of single-floor factories

were the highest, reaching RMB1.58 per sqm per day and 1.47 per sqm per day respectively. Baoshan and Songjiang districts came in third and fourth with the factory rents at RMB1.45 per sqm per day and 1.19 per sqm per day respectively. The factory rent in Jinshan district was relatively low, reaching approximately RMB0.78 per sqm per day.

As the production hub of robots in China, Shanghai has robust demand for factory spaces of the robotics industry. Known as

one of the world’s four largest industrial robot manufacturers, FANUC Corporation announced its investment of RMB1.5 billion to build an intelligent Gigafactory for robots in Baoshan, Shanghai with a land area of 287,000 sqm, four times the total land area of phase one and two of the existing factories. With a total GFA of 300,000 sqm, the project is estimated to reach an annual production capacity of RMB10 billion upon completion and will be FANUC Corporation’s second largest robot manufacturing base.

In Q1, the primary industrial land market in Shanghai remained active with 13 industrial plots sold, involving a total land area of 480,000 sqm. Most traded lands were concentrated in Songjiang and Minhang districts with 150,000 sqm and 140,000 sqm respectively, accounting for 32% and 29% of the total figure in Shanghai respectively.

In terms of the number of transactions, Qingpu District ranked first with four plots traded, accounting for 31% of the total in Shanghai. Minhang and Songjiang districts ranked second and third respectively, with three and two plots, accounting for 23% and 15% of the total transactions in Shanghai.

On 11 February, Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd. acquired an industrial land in Shanghai Qingpu Industrial Zone for RMB54 million, with a land area of 31,219 sqm and a plot ratio of 1.99.

In terms of sales price, Baoshan District recorded the highest average industrial land price in Q1, reaching RMB1.2 million per mu. Minhang District secured the second place with a unit price of RMB1.09 million per mu. Fengxian’s

SAleS ANd INVeStMeNt

lANd MArket

FIGure 4Primary industrial land price by district, Q1 2019

Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research

FIGure 3Transacted area of primary industrial land by district, Q1 2019

On 12 January, Gotion Global Headquarters

(also known as Shanghai Electric-Gotion

R&D Centre) started construction in

Shanghai. Located in Waigang Town,

Jiading District, Shanghai, the project has a

land area of 92,000 sqm with an estimated

investment of RMB3 billion and is expected

to be completed by the end of 2019 and put

into operation in 2020.

The Songjiang government continues

to make efforts on the revitalization

of existing lands and promote the

transformation and upgrading of

industries in Songjiang. On 13 February,

Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Company

Limited built its Asia-Pacific Headquarter and advanced manufacturing base on a vacant land covering a site area of 59,333 sqm with an investment of more than RMB10 billion.

On 28 February, JD.com announced that it would set up the JD Logistics Property Core Fund together with GIC. With a total amount of RMB10.9 billion, the new fund will be used for the acquisition of logistics and warehouse properties in JD.com. JD.com will be the asset manager of the fund.

On 11 March, STO Express announced that its 15% equity would be acquired by Alibaba for RMB4.6 billion. The transaction

will further help both parties to cooperate in

logistics technology and new retail logistics,

lower the logistics cost and speed up the

establishment of intelligent logistics network.

On 14 March, Shanghai Haohai Biological

Technology Global Pharmaceutical and

Industrial Project started its construction

in Shanghai Songjiang Economic

Development Zone. With a total

investment of RMB2 billion, the project

has a land area of 139,000 sqm. Haohai

Biological Technology Company is a

high-tech company specializing in R&D,

production and sales of the innovative

biomedical materials.

29%

32%

26%

5% 1% 4% 3% Minhang

Songjiang

Qingpu

Jinshan

Baoshan

Fengxian

Jiading

Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research

land price was relatively low, at RMB300,000 per mu.

In terms of traded land size, most single land plots were 1-5 hectares, accounting for 54% of the total transactions in Q1. Three land plots of over 8 hectares each were traded and they are located in Minhang, Songjiang and Qingpu districts respectively, amounting to 23% of the total.

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研究报告上海工业市场季度报告 2019年第一季度

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在第一季度的最后一个月，PMI较上月回升了1.3个百分点至50.5%，制造业整体呈现稳中有升的发展态势。

一季度，本市规模以上工业企业完成工业总产值人民币7,830.67亿元，比去年同期下降4.8%。其中，3月份完成工业总产值人民币2,848.29亿元，比去年同月增长0.9%。

六个重点工业行业共完成工业总产值人民币5,176.89亿元，比去年同期下降5.7%，呈现三升三降的态势。其中，电子信息产品制造业、汽车制造业和精品钢材制造业分别同比下降7%、17.2%和4.4%；石油化工及精细化工制造业、成套设备制造业和生物医药制造业则分别同比增长5.2%、2.3%及10.2%。

第一季度，上海签订外商直接投资合同项目1,411个，与去年同期增长43.4%。签订外商直接投资合同金额同比增长33.7%至140.97亿美金；实际到位金额达到44.68亿美金，同比增长20.3%。

为了减轻企业负担，推动制造业高质量发展，2019年《政府工作报告》中指出，自4月1日起，制造企业增值税税点将由之前的16%降至13%。小微企业认定标准放宽，更多的初创科技企业可以享受税收优惠。

1月7日，上海最大的外资制造业项目⸺特斯拉超级工厂在临港产业区正式开工建

设。该项目总投资达人民币500亿元，总占地面积为86万平方米。2018年以来，上汽集团、博郡汽车纷纷入驻上海临港，此次有了特斯拉的加入，上海临港产业区新能源汽车增长势头强劲，正形成世界级新能源汽车产业集群。

作为上海市先进制造业的重要承载区，宝山区继续通过吸引高质量产业项目来推进产业转型升级。3月13日，宝山区政府在宝山区集中开工和启动66个重大产业项目，总投资约人民币760亿元，共占地6,009亩（1亩=666.67平方米）。这些项目主要集中在上海机器人产业园、城市工业园区以及宝山工业园区。

2019年，上海将大力推进5G网络建设，重点支持5G关键技术。随着5G时代的到来，物流行业将迎来“物联网＋AI”的新模式，智能物流或将成为5G率先覆盖的一大商业场景。3月18日，京东宣布在上海嘉定建设国内首个5G智能物流示范园区。

展望第二季度，随着节后生产经营活动的逐步恢复，仓储需求将有明显增长。增值税减税新政的出台也将直接利好制造业企业，减轻企业负担，加之受中美经贸高级别磋商不断传出积极信号的影响，市场整体预期较为乐观。我们预计物流仓储和厂房租金将保持稳中有升的态势，年增幅维持在4%左右。物流仓储的空置率将持续降低。

2019年第一季度物流仓储租金保持不变而厂房租金环比上升1.6%第一季度，制造业生产活动逐步复苏，三月份的中国制造业采购经理指数和中国物流业景气指数都较上月有明显回升。

Factories in National-Level Changxing Economic and Technological Development Zone for Lease and Development Opportunities of Vacant Land Plots in Zhejiang

proJeCt pArtICulArS

The project is centrally located in the Yangtze Delta with an excellent transportation network.

Featured well-established infrastructure and public facilities, the National-Level Development Zone is located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, which is known as the “International Garden City”.

The Changxing County Government will provide strong support and offer one-stop services, including simplifying the

business procedures and providing a dedicated professional service team for the project.

The available factory space now reaches a total GFA of 60,661 sqm while the vacant land area is of 404,000 sqm.

Owing to the population of 80 million people within a radius of 150 kilometres, it is easier to approach the potential cooperation partners and clients near the development zone.

The development zone was occupied by more than 400 enterprises from all over the world, including Fortune Global 500 companies.

Changxing will be one of the cities which benefit from the “One Hour Economic Circle” of Shanghai after the Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou high speed rail starts to operate in 2019.

tABle 1Project Summary

Property Name Changxing International Industrial park, Huzhou City, Zhejiang province

Location At the intersection of Chenwang road and Fazhan road, Changxing

Completion Date Jan 2018

Total Actual Building Area

Approximately 60,661 sqm

Actual Building Area of Construction

Building A: 3,700 sqmBuilding B: 4,100 sqmBuilding C: 4,100 sqmBuilding d: 4,100 sqmBuilding No.1: 8,640 sqmBuilding No.2: 10,940 sqmBuilding No.3: 25,081 sqm

Basement Area No

Storeys Building A, B, C and d: single storeyBuilding No.1 and 2: single storeyBuilding No. 3: 3 storeys

About Property Rights

the property rights to all buildings belong to the Administrative Committee of National- level Changxing economic and technological development Zone

tABle 2Land Summary

Property Name National-level Changxing economic and technological development Zone

Location Huzhou City, Zhejiang

Total Land Area Approximately 403,842 sqm

Area of Plots plot 1: 22,000 sqm plot 2: 73,370 sqm plot 3: 187,745 sqmplot 4: 100,050 sqmplot 5: 20,677 sqm

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研究报告上海工业市场季度报告 2019年第一季度

厂房物流地产

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2019年3月，中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国物流业景气指数为52.6%，较上月回升了3个百分点；中国仓储指数为57.2%，较上月大幅回升10.1个百分点。

随着制造业开始步入常态，供应链上下游企业生产经营活动逐步复苏，物流业务大幅增加。钢铁、化工、建材等大宗商品、机械设备等制造业以及农副产品等民生的物流需求回升明显，主要行业经济活动趋于活跃。

受与国家稳投资相关的政策影响，经济趋稳运行，对仓储业务需求起到支撑作用。第一季度，上海物流仓储租金维持在每天每平方米人民币1.58元，物流仓库的空置率也保持不变在7.5%的水平。

第一季度，上海物流仓储物业租赁市场活跃。例如，物流公司DHL在嘉民外高桥配送中心租赁了9,000平方米的仓库面积。万科旗下的物流平台万纬物流在金山区枫泾物流园出租了21,000平方米的仓库面积。

从供应方面看，2019年《上海市政府工作报告》中提出，上海要推动发展先进制造业和战略新兴产业，加快重大项目产业建设。因此，上海工业用地减量化腾出的土地指标，以优先确保先进制造业用地，从而增加了其他中低端制造业在上海寻址的难度。

从需求方面看，受到生产逐渐进入旺季以及国家一系列政策落地等因素影响，制造业已显复苏迹象，进而带动厂房需求的增长。因此，厂房类物业仍处于供不应求的状态。

2019年第一季度，联东U谷在上海松江车墩国际企业港有25,000平方米的新建厂房交付。该项目包括7栋建筑单体，其中单层标准厂房4栋，双层标准厂房3栋，每栋厂房面积800平方米至6,000平方米不等。

第一季度，上海工业区租金保持稳定增长。单层厂房平均租金升至每天每平方米人民币1.26元，环比增长约1.6%。

从区域来看，工业厂房租金最高的区域为浦东和闵行，日租金分别达到每天每平方米人民币1.58元和1.47元。位列第三第四的则是

图一

物流仓储物业平均租金及环比涨幅

宝山和松江，其厂房租金分别为每天每平方米人民币1.45元和1.19元。金山区的厂房租金相对较低，约为每天每平方米人民币0.78

元。

上海是全国规模最大的机器人产业集聚区，因而相关产业对于厂房的需求与日俱增。作为全球四大工业机器人制造商之一，发那

科集团宣布在上海宝山新建机器人超级智能工厂，该项目总占地面积为28.7万平方米，是现有一期和二期工厂总面积的四倍，总建筑面积为30万平方米，总投资为人民币15

亿元。建成之后，年产值预计可达到100亿元，成为发那科集团在全球的第二大机器人生产基地。

资料来源：莱坊研究部

图二单层厂房平均租金及环比涨幅

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资料来源：莱坊研究部

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研究报告上海工业市场季度报告 2019年第一季度

1月12日，国轩高科全球总部基地暨上海电气国轩研发基地在上海开工建设。该项目位于上海嘉定区外冈镇，总占地面积为92,000平方米，计划总投资人民币30亿元，预计将于2019年底建设完成，2020年投入使用。

松江区政府一直致力于盘活存量用地，推动松江区产业转型升级。2月13日，深圳顺络电子股份有限公司在松江区盘活闲置用地，投资人民币超过百亿元建设亚太区

总部以及先进制造基地，收购面积大约在59,333平方米。

2月28日，京东宣布将与新加坡主权财富基

金新加坡政府投资公司(GIC)开展合作，共

同成立京东物流地产核心基金。该基金规

模预计为人民币109亿元，将用于收购京东

部分物流仓储设施。京东将担任该支基金

的资产管理者。

3月11日，申通快递发布公告，称阿里巴巴

将以人民币约46亿元收购申通快递约15%

的股权。此次交易有助于双方在物流科技、新零售物流等领域进一步合作，共同降低物流成本，加快构建智能物流网络。

3月14日，上海昊海生科国际医药及产业化项目在上海松江经济开发区正式开工建设。该项目初步投资额约为人民币20亿元，占地面积为13.9万平方米。昊海生物科技有限公司是一家专注于研发、生产及销售创新型医用生物材料的高新技术企业。

该项目位于长江三角洲中心，拥有极佳的交通网络。

具备高水准、综合性公共设施的国家级开发区坐落于享有“国际花园城市”之称的浙江省长兴县。

长兴县政府将给予大力支持，提供一站式服务，包括简化便捷的商务程序，并为项目配备专属服务团队。

销售和投资 莱坊工业项目甄选

土地市场第一季度，上海工业土地一级市场成交保持活跃，共有13幅工业地块成交，合计出让面积约为48万平方米。成交量居前的区县分别为松江、闵行两区，成交面积分别为15万和14万平方米，占全市总成交面积的32%和29%。

从成交幅数来看，青浦区位居首位，成交地块共4幅，占全市总成交幅数的31%。闵行和松江则分别位居第二、三位，成交地块分别为3幅和2幅，占全市总成交幅数的23%和15%。

2月11日，上海华测导航技术股份有限公司以约人民币5,400万在上海青浦工业园区摘得一工业用地，该幅工业用地的土地面积为31,219平方米，容积率为1.99。

从成交价格来看，第一季度工业用地平均成交地价最高的是宝山区，土地单价达每亩人民币120万元。排名第二的是闵行区，土地单价为每亩人民币109万元。奉贤区的土地单价相对较低，为每亩人民币30万元。

从出让面积来看，第一季度上海工业土地一级市场单幅地块的出让面积以1-5公顷的小面积地块为主，占到54%。单幅面积大

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

图四2019年第一季度各区工业用地一级市场成交单价

资料来源：上海国土与资源管理局，莱坊研究部

29%

32%

26%

5%1%4%3%

图三2019年第一季度上海主要工业用地成交各区占比（按成交面积计）

资料来源：上海国土与资源管理局，莱坊研究部

表一

项目概要

项目名称 浙江省湖州市长兴国际工业园

地理位置 长兴县陈王路与发展路交叉口

竣工时间 2018年1月

总建筑实际使用面积

约60,661平方米

建筑实际使用面积分布

A楼：3,700平方米 B楼：4,100平方米 C楼：4,100平方米 d楼：4,100平方米 1号楼：8,640平方米 2号楼：10,940平方米 3号楼：25,081平方米

地下室 无

楼层 A、B、C、d楼：单层1、2号楼：单层3号楼：3层

产权归属 该项目建筑产权归属于国家级长兴经济与技术发展园区管理委员会所有

表二

土地详情

项目名称 国家级长兴经济与技术发展园区

地址 浙江省湖州市

总土地面积 约403,842平方米

建筑实际使用面积分布

土地1：22,000平方米 土地2：73,370平方米 土地3：187,745平方米 土地4：100,050平方米 土地5：20,677平方米

现有工厂总建筑面积为60,661平方米，空置土地面积为40.4万平方米。

在项目半径150公里范围内拥有8千万人口，因而有机会在开发区附近获得潜在的合作伙伴及顾客。

开发区拥有400多家来自世界各地企业，其中不乏包括世界500强企业。

沪苏湖高铁预计将于2019年开通，届时长兴将融入上海“一小时”经济圈。

于8公顷的土地共3幅，分别位于闵行、松江和青浦区，占总幅数的23%。

浙江国家级长兴经济技术开发区厂房出租及空置土地开发

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