SM ent. report by shinhan

COMPANY REPORT

(041510)

Arpeggio()

, 58,600 , 58,600 . 2014EPS() 2,094 Target Multiple P/E() 28 . P/EMultiple 28 4 P/E 23 20% . 'EXO' , 2014 .

, . , . 'EXO' . 'EXO' 2013 7% 2015 13% EPS ( 4% ) . , 'EXO' .

2014 2,026(+26.3% YoY), 473(+35.5% YoY)2014 () 26.3%, 35.5% 2,026 473 . / 609(+28% YoY), 1,417(+26% YoY) . 1.6%p 23.4% .

12 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F () 109.9 168.6 160.4 202.6 235.7 () 20.5 47.8 34.9 47.3 54.9 () 16.5 37.2 29.6 43.2 50.2 EPS () 889 1,857 1,437 2,094 2,433 BPS () 5,816 10,394 11,715 13,809 16,242 (%) 18.6 28.4 21.8 23.4 23.3 (%) 15.0 22.1 18.4 21.3 21.3 ROE (%) 16.9 23.2 13.0 16.4 16.2 PER (x) 45.8 24.5 30.8 21.3 18.4 PBR (x) 7.0 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 27.8 15.8 16.7 15.3 13.1 : K-IFRS

(02) 3772-1290 [email protected]

(02) 3772-2884 [email protected]

KOSPI 1,948.92pKOSDAQ 512.92p 921.9 500 20.6 16.1 (78.2%)52 / 50,600 /29,350 (60 ) 323,966 (60 ) 13,379 11.95% 21.27% 11.06% 3 20.5% 6 24.0% 12 -7.0%KOSPI 3 25.1% 6 28.8% 12 -6.5%

()

(1 13 ) 44,650 58,600 () 31.2%

[ Analyst ]

2014 1 14

Arpeggio(): (041510)

Contents

3

6

Investment Summary Valuation , 58,600

8

11

23

: + : , : 1. , 2. : 'EXO' + 3. 'EXO' 2014 ( ) 2,026(+26.3% YoY), 473(+35.5%

YoY) 4Q13 474(+2.6% YoY), 132(-6.8% YoY)

26

27 :

3

COMPANY REPORT 2014 1 14

Investment Summary

2 2014 'EXO' . 2 . .

1. , - 1) , 2) () , 3) , 4) MD(Merchandise) .

2. : 'EXO' + - 'EXO' 2013 7%, 2014 11%, 2015 13% . 'EXO' 2013 11%, 2014 30%, 2015 36% . 2014 AVEX .

3. 'EXO' - 20% . . 'EXO' . .

1. ,

: ,

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

2 (, , , , f(x))

1. 2.

3 (EXO, (A), (B))

1. 2. 3. 4. MD,

2004 ~ 2009 CAGR : 25%

2010 ~ 2015 CAGR : 22%

() 1 (HOT, SES, , Fly to the SKY, )

: , ,

0

100

200

300

400

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

()

: ,

0

60

120

180

240

300

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

()

2004 ~ 2015F CAGR: 44%

2. : EXO +

3. EXO

3 1. ,

4


2. EXO +

: ,

EXO 2013F 2014F 2015F () EXO (%) EXO (%) EXO (%)

70%

/ 9.8 21 47.7

70%

/ 7.7 13 60.9

70%

/ 7.0 11 66.5 0 0 54.5 7 11 65.1 12.6 17 74.6 0.7 3 22.2 2.1 7 29.9 4.2 11 37.3 MD 1.4 4 35.9 MD 4.9 10 46.7 MD 7.0 12 57.4 11.9 7 160.2 21.7 11 202.6 30.8 13 235.7

80%

/ 11.2 23 49.1

80%

/ 8.8 14 62

80%

/ 8.0 12 67.5 0 0 54.5 8.0 12 66.1 14.4 19 76.4 0.8 4 22.3 2.4 8 30.2 4.8 13 37.9 MD 1.6 4 36.1 MD 5.6 12 47.4 MD 8.0 14 58.4 13.6 8 162 24.8 12 205.7 35.2 15 240.2

90%

/ 12.6 25 50.5

90%

/ 9.9 16 63.1

90%

/ 9.0 13 68.5 0 0 54.5 9.0 13 67.1 16.2 21 78.2 0.9 4 22.4 2.7 9 30.5 5.4 14 38.5 MD 1.8 5 36.3 MD 6.3 13 48.1 MD 9.0 15 59.4 15.3 9 163.7 27.9 13 208.8 39.6 16 244.6

100%

/ 14 27 51.9

100%

/ 11.0 17 64.2

100%

/ 10.0 14 69.5 0 0 54.5 10.0 15 68.1 18.0 23 80.0 1 4 22.5 3.0 10 30.8 6.0 15 39.1 MD 2 5 36.5 MD 7.0 14 48.8 MD 10.0 17 60.4 17 10 165.4 31.0 15 211.9 44.0 18 249.0

: : 70%

EXO

2013F 2014F 2015F () EXO EXO EXO / 9.8 8.8 1.0 0.0 / 7.7 6.2 0.8 0.8 / 7.0 5.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.7 2.8 3.5 12.6 1.3 5.0 6.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.6 1.5 0.0 4.2 0.4 3.4 0.4 MD 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 MD 4.9 1.0 1.5 2.5 MD 7.0 1.4 2.1 3.5 11.9 10.6 1.3 0.0 21.7 8.5 6.5 6.7 30.8 8.7 11.2 10.9 (%) 100 89 11 0 (%) 100 39 30 31 (%) 100 29 36 35 :

0

60

120

180

240

300

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()

2010 ~ 2015 CAGR : 11%

5


3. EXO

BCG

: BCG(Boston consulting Group),

GAP

: WISEfn, : 2013~2015 EPS

2014 ( ) 2,026(+26.3% YoY), 473(+35.5% YoY)

,

: ,

EXO

f(x)

10

20

30

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

() P/E() P/E()

(%) ()

0

15

30

45

60

75

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000() () ()

6


Valuation

, 58,600 , 58,600 . 2014 EPS() 2,094 P/E() Multiple 28 . 2010 2013 P/E Multiple 23 20% 28 Target Multiple . 4 Avg P/E High P/E .

1) EXO 2) 2014 .

2011 20% . . 2014 EXO . 'EXO' . . .

P/E Valuation () 2014 () 43.2 2014 EPS 2,094 Target Multiple () 28 4 P/E 23 20% 58,600 44,650 (%) 31.2 : Historical Valuation

(x, %) 2010 2011 2012 2013 (2010~2013)PER(End) 12.6 33.2 22.8 30.7 24.8PER(High) 17.1 44.9 35.9 35.2 33.3PER(Low) 4.1 11.3 18.1 20.4 13.5PER(Avg) 12.1 28.1 25.2 27.8 23.2Premium (%) 20%PER(Target) 28: WISEfn, : Premium PER 2011, 2012 EXO , 2014

P/E Band

: WISEfn,

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

85,000

01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14

()

35x

30x

25x

20x

P/B Band

: WISEfn,

20,000

35,000

50,000

65,000

80,000

01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14

()

5x

4x

6x

3x

2014 EPS 2,094 Target P/E 28

7


PEER CJ E&M AVEX HUAYI () 122870 KS 122870 KS 130960 KS 7860 JP 300027 CH () 922 597 1,169 1,088 6,227 2012 168 107 1,395 1,875 240 () 2013F 160 15 1,708 1,638 341 2014F 203 139 1,878 1,863 453 2012 48 21 39 190 46 () 2013F 35 24 61 135 141 2014F 47 28 101 185 178 2012 28.4 20.1 2.8 10.1 19.2 (%) 2013F 21.8 20.5 3.6 8.2 41.2 2014F 23.4 20.1 5.4 10.0 39.2 2012 37 18 37 99 44 () 2013F 34 19 27 89 111 2014F 54 25 68 96 136 ROE 2012 23.2 21.6 (0.2) 22.4 20.6 (%) 2013F 13.0 18.0 2.3 18.2 21.3 2014F 16.4 20.0 5.4 18.9 20.8 EV/EBITDA 2012 15.8 22.3 2.8 6.8 () 2013F 16.7 17.2 3.3 5.6 45.6 2014F 14.8 14.7 3.3 4.2 39.1 PER 2012 23.6 33.3 46.8 10.5 68.1 () 2013F 25.8 28.4 44.7 11.5 52.6 2014F 17.1 23.6 17.5 10.9 44.3 PBR 2012 4.4 6.5 1.0 2.1 10.6 () 2013F 3.8 4.8 1.0 2.1 9.5 2014F 3.1 4.1 0.9 1.9 8.1 : WISEfn, Bloomberg, : ( )

PEER

: Bloomberg,

60

80

100

120

140

160

01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14

CJ E&M

(2013.01.02=100)

PEER

: Bloomberg,

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14

Avex Group Holdings IncHuayi Brothers Media Corp

(2013.01.02=100)

8


1. : + 2013 8 . (+ ) . 2014 16% . 1) 2009 , 2) , , 3) .

2008 1,000~1,500 . 2013 1) , 2) EXO, , . 10% . .

: ,

2012 2013 . 2013 K-POP , , . , , , , EXO / . 2014 . 1) 2) (, ) .

: ,

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

2010~2015 CAGR: 8%

()

(160)

(80)

0

80

160

1Q 05 1Q 06 1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 12 1Q 13

()

51,000~1,500

16%

K-POP

9


2. : , 2009 2013 9% . MP3, PC . .

. 1) , 2) .

2009 2013 10% . 2013 2 . 3,000 . 4% . .

2013 450 . 2013 160. 33% . .

: ,

1,000

1,400

1,800

2,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

()

2009~2013 CAGR: 10%

: ,

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

()()

2009~2013 CAGR: 4%

: ,

0

40

80

120

160

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

2009~2013 CAGR: 41%

()

9%

10%

30%

10


3. : 2 . 2012 2,102 . 2,300 1/10 . , , . . .

. 2012 379% . . . (www.baidu.com), (www.youku.com) .

: , ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

: 2,300

()

SMTOWN WEEK

: ,

2 1/10

11


1. ,

. . 1) , 2) , 3) . .

90 1 (HOT, SES, ) . . . .

1 , 2004 1) , 2) () , 3) .

: ,

1) 2004 , 2005 , 2007 , 2008 , 2009 f(x), 2012 EXO . 2006 . . 2012 EXO .

() 2004 2 , 2005 11 , , , , , , , , , , , 2007 9 , , , , , , , , 2008 5 , , Key, , 2009 f(x) 5 , , , , 2012 EXO 12 ,, , , , , , , , , , , : ,

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

2 (, , , , f(x))

1. 2.

3 (EXO, (A), (B))

1. 2. 3. 4. MD,

2004 ~ 2009 CAGR : 25%

2010 ~ 2015 CAGR : 22%

() 1 (HOT, SES, , Fly to the SKY, )

1) 2) 3) 4) MD

2012 EXO 6

12


2) . 2003 1, 100 . , , , . 2009 200 . 2012 100 2013 200 . 2004 15% 2013 50% 10 .

: , , : ,

3) 2005 (11), 2007 (9), 2012 EXO(12) . . ( K.R.Y, T, , &), (), EXO(EXO-K, EXO-M) .

4) MD MD(Merchandise) . MD , , , , / . 2013 1 SM Town . 6 1 . MD .

0

100

200

300

400

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

()

0

60

120

180

240

300

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F

()

2004 ~ 2015F CAGR: 44%

()

: ,

SM TOWN

: ,

2013 50%

13


+ + + MD

2011

() 41 () 18 () 15 () 28 () 33 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 10 () 20 (10) () 3 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 8 () 16 () 7 () 50 () RE 5 () 16 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 6 () 10 () 7 () 8 () 5 () 9 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 6 f(x) () 9 SMTOWN SMTOWN

: ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11

()

14


2012

() 18 () 20 () RE 8 () 26 () 28 () 28 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 28 () 2.5 () 9 () 47 DVD() 7 () 21 () 16 () 20 () 11 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 2 () 4.5 () 21 () 15 () 7 () 14 DVD() 16 () 35 () 2 () 20 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 2.5 DVD() 2.8 () 8 () 14 () 18 () 12 () 7 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 2 () 5 f(x) () 7 SMTOWN SMTOWN EXO () 23 SMTOWN SMTOWN

: ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

()

15


2013

() 18 () 17 () 16 DVD() 16 () 28 () 16 () 1 () 70 () 3 SMTOWN () 1 () 1 () 15 SMTOWN DVD() 2 () 8.5 () 14 () 9 () 9 () 2.8 () 4 () 10 () 10 () 5 () 5 () 7 () 4 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 30 DVD() 2.5 DVD() 8 () 17 () 8 () 10 () 14 () 6 () 3 () 1 () 2.5 SMTOWN SMTOWN () 19 () RE 14 () 5 () 17 () 10 () 16 () 6 () 11 () 7 () 3 SMTOWN SMTOWN f(x) () 8 SMTOWN SMTOWN EXO () 42 () 58 () 43 SMTOWN SMTOWN

: ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F

()

16


2014

() () (, ) () () SMTOWN SMTOWN () () () (, ) SMTOWN SMTOWN () () (), () () () SMTOWN SMTOWN () DVD() () () SMTOWN SMTOWN f(x) () SMTOWN SMTOWN EXO () (, ) SMTOWN SMTOWN (A) () SMTOWN SMTOWN

: ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F

()

17


2015

() () (, ) DVD() (, ) (, ) (, ) SMTOWN SMTOWN () , DVD() () () (, ) SMTOWN SMTOWN () () , () (, ) () SMTOWN SMTOWN f(x) () () SMTOWN SMTOWN EXO () RE() () (, , ) (, ) SMTOWN SMTOWN (A) () () SMTOWN SMTOWN (B) () () SMTOWN SMTOWN

: ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

1Q15F 2Q15F 3Q15F 4Q15F

()

18


2. : EXO +

1) EXO, 2013 100 2000 . 2001 10 80 , 2013 10 1,000 . 2001 GOD, 100 . 2013 EXO 1 100 12 .

EXO 2013 6 1 47, 1 53 . 12 12 43 2013 144 . 2013 1/10 . 2 .

2013 260, 243 . EXO 54% 29% . . EXO , .

2013

: , ,

2013 EXO

: ,

0

30

60

90

120

EXO

()

EXO , 12

1 100, 43

54%, 29%

1 : 47

1 (Repackage) : 53

1 (12 ) : 43

19


2) EXO, 2 . 10% . 10% . 1) , 2) , 3) . .

: ,

2 . 2012 2,102 . 2,300 1/10 . , , . . .

. 2012 379% . . . (www.baidu.com), (www.youku.com) .

0

60

120

180

240

300

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()

2010 ~ 2015 CAGR : 11%

: , ,

0

15

30

45

60

75

: 2,300

()

SMTOWN WEEK

: ,

10%

2 1/10

20


3) 2014 EXO EXO-K(Korean), EXO-M(Mandarin) . 12 4(, , , ) . .

EXO 2013 10 SM Town Live World Tour in Beijing . EXO . 4 . EXO .

. 7 . JYP 2PM 6 2 . 40% . , 30% . .

EXO . 2013 .

2013 . 2014 AVEX . .

() () () () 800 14 100 1.7 700 12 80 1.4 400 7 38 6 380 6.6 25 42PM 350 6 : , : / 175

EXO-M

: ,

EXO-M

: ,

EXO ,

40%

2014

21


4) EXO EXO 70%( , 100% 30% ) , 2013 7%, 2014 11%, 2015 13% . 6% EXO . (100% ) 2013 10%, 2014 15%, 2015 18% . EXO .

EXO 2013 11%, 2014 30%, 2015 36% . EXO . 2015 EXO 36% > 35% > 29% .

EXO () 2013F 2014F 2015F EXO (%) EXO (%) EXO (%)

70%

/ 9.8 21 47.7

70%

/ 7.7 13 60.9

70%

/ 7.0 11 66.5 0 0 54.5 7 11 65.1 12.6 17 74.6 0.7 3 22.2 2.1 7 29.9 4.2 11 37.3 MD 1.4 4 35.9 MD 4.9 10 46.7 MD 7.0 12 57.4 11.9 7 160.2 21.7 11 202.6 30.8 13 235.7

80%

/ 11.2 23 49.1

80%

/ 8.8 14 62

80%

/ 8.0 12 67.5 0 0 54.5 8.0 12 66.1 14.4 19 76.4 0.8 4 22.3 2.4 8 30.2 4.8 13 37.9 MD 1.6 4 36.1 MD 5.6 12 47.4 MD 8.0 14 58.4 13.6 8 162 24.8 12 205.7 35.2 15 240.2

90%

/ 12.6 25 50.5

90%

/ 9.9 16 63.1

90%

/ 9.0 13 68.5 0 0 54.5 9.0 13 67.1 16.2 21 78.2 0.9 4 22.4 2.7 9 30.5 5.4 14 38.5 MD 1.8 5 36.3 MD 6.3 13 48.1 MD 9.0 15 59.4 15.3 9 163.7 27.9 13 208.8 39.6 16 244.6

100%

/ 14 27 51.9

100%

/ 11.0 17 64.2

100%

/ 10.0 14 69.5 0 0 54.5 10.0 15 68.1 18.0 23 80.0 1 4 22.5 3.0 10 30.8 6.0 15 39.1 MD 2 5 36.5 MD 7.0 14 48.8 MD 10.0 17 60.4 17 10 165.4 31.0 15 211.9 44.0 18 249.0

: : 70%

EXO () 2013F 2014F 2015F EXO EXO EXO / 9.8 8.8 1.0 0.0 / 7.7 6.2 0.8 0.8 / 7.0 5.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.7 2.8 3.5 12.6 1.3 5.0 6.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.6 1.5 0.0 4.2 0.4 3.4 0.4 MD 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 MD 4.9 1.0 1.5 2.5 MD 7.0 1.4 2.1 3.5 11.9 10.6 1.3 0.0 21.7 8.5 6.5 6.7 30.8 8.7 11.2 10.9 (%) 100 89 11 0 (%) 100 39 30 31 (%) 100 29 36 35 :

EXO 2013 7%, 2014 11%, 2015 13%

EXO 2013 11%, 2014 30%, 2015 36%

22


3. EXO

BCG EXO 6 (Boston Consulting Group) BCG . exoplanet . 2013 . 2014 Question Mark(?) Star() .

BCG

: BCG(Boston consulting Group),

2011 20% . . 2014 EXO . EXO . . .

GAP

: WISEfn, : 2013~2015 EPS

EXO

f(x)

10

20

30

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

() P/E() P/E()

(%) ()

EXO ?

EXO , 20%

Question(, ) Star(, ) Cow(, ) Dog(, )

23


2014

2014 ( ) 2,026(+26.3% YoY), 473(+35.5% YoY) 2014 26% 2,054, 36% 473 . 1) , 2) , 3) MD . / 28%, 26% . 1) 2) EXO .

1.6%p 23.4% . 2012 30% . 1) , 2) MD , 3) . , , , , . EXO MD .

/ : 609(+28% YoY) 1 , , , EXO . . 2014 /( 288) 18% 368 . /( 279) 47% 241 .

/ () 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 38.1 56.0 47.8 60.9 66.5

25.8 28.7 31.3 36.8 39.5 19.2 22.3 26.0 29.6 31.1 6.2 6.4 5.3 7.1 8.4

12.3 27.3 16.4 24.1 27.0 2.0 23.3 14.0 18.3 19.2 0.6 4.0 2.4 5.8 7.8

(%) 68 51 66 60 59 (%) 32 49 34 40 41 : , / ,

: ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()

+17% YoY

+47% YoY

/(+28% YoY) (+26% YoY)

368(+18% YoY) 241(+47% YoY)

24


: 1,417(+26% YoY) 1) : 298(+34% YoY) . 2013 32, 7 . . 2014 32% 227 . , EXO 44% 72 .

2) : 651(+19% YoY) . 1) , , 2) SM Town Week 34% 203 .

EXO . 2014 15% 181, 20% 55 14% 448 .

3) MD : 467(+30% YoY) . SM Town , 18% 150 . MD, Universal studio MD 36% 317 .

() 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 71.8 112.5 112.7 141.7 169.2

36.1 36.4 45.1 57.9 71.0 12.8 17.8 17.2 22.7 24.1 12.0 11.9 15.1 20.3 26.4 11.4 6.7 12.7 15.0 20.6

35.7 76.1 67.6 83.8 98.2 3.3 5.0 5.0 7.2 13.2 19.8 48.5 39.4 44.8 48.2 12.5 22.6 23.2 31.7 36.8

(%) 50 32 40 41 42 (%) 50 68 60 59 58 : ,

: ,

0

30

60

90

120

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()

+29% YoY

+24% YoY

227(+32% YoY) 72(+44% YoY)

203(+34% YoY)

448(+14% YoY)

150(+18% YoY) 317(+36% YoY)

25


4Q13 : 474(+2.6% YoY), 132(-6.8% YoY) 2013 4 Preview: 4 2.6% 474, -6.8% 132 . 4 1) /(+2% YoY) 17, EXO 43, 2) (+3% YoY) SM TOWN WEEK( 10, 7, 10), (15), (6), MD . 28% . SM TOWN 2.1%p .

() 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2012 2013F 2014F 38.4 32.4 51.5 46.2 33.2 33.6 46.2 47.4 41.3 45.5 59.1 56.7 168.5 160.4 202.6

11.8 12.8 19.6 20.9 16.1 17.7 18.8 23.7 21.0 22.9 23.7 27.1 65.1 76.4 94.7 3.5 4.0 9.2 5.6 4.9 6.3 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.8 7.6 7.2 22.3 26.0 29.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 6.4 5.3 7.1 4.0 3.4 4.5 5.9 3.4 5.0 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.8 17.8 17.2 22.7 1.4 3.2 2.1 5.2 3.8 2.7 2.6 6.0 3.8 4.1 4.4 7.9 11.9 15.1 20.3 MD 1.3 0.8 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.2 3.2 4.3 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.3 6.7 12.7 15.0

26.6 19.6 31.9 25.3 17.1 15.9 27.4 23.6 20.3 22.6 35.4 29.6 103.4 84.0 107.9 6.1 9.2 3.5 4.5 4.5 3.1 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.8 3.5 4.3 23.3 14.0 18.3 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 4.0 2.4 5.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 5.0 5.0 7.2 12.4 5.1 20.0 11.0 4.4 6.9 17.1 11.0 5.8 5.7 20.2 13.1 48.5 39.4 44.8

MD 5.9 2.3 6.2 8.2 6.7 4.4 5.4 6.7 7.1 8.0 8.3 8.3 22.6 23.2 31.7 22.9 17.9 34.6 24.6 19.4 24.6 28.5 27.8 25.6 28.0 36.8 35.3 99.9 100.3 125.7 (%) 59.4 55.3 67.1 53.3 58.3 73.6 61.7 58.6 62.0 61.5 62.2 62.3 59.3 62.5 62.0 3.8 4.5 5.0 7.5 6.2 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.0 6.7 8.6 8.3 20.8 25.2 29.6 (%) 10.0 13.8 9.7 16.2 18.6 19.7 12.6 13.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 12.3 15.7 14.6 11.7 10.3 11.7 14.1 7.7 2.2 11.9 13.2 9.7 10.9 13.7 13.1 47.8 34.9 47.3 (%) 30.5 31.8 22.8 30.6 23.1 6.7 25.7 27.8 23.4 23.9 23.1 23.1 28.4 21.8 23.4 9.4 9.7 8.7 9.3 6.4 2.0 9.9 11.3 8.6 9.6 12.1 12.9 37.2 29.6 43.2 (%) 24.4 30.0 17.0 20.2 19.2 6.0 21.5 23.8 20.7 21.1 20.5 22.8 22.1 18.4 21.3 98.8 52.5 71.8 17.3 (13.6) 3.3 (10.3) 2.6 24.3 36.2 27.8 19.6 53.3 (4.8) 26.3 377.9 336.4 69.0 56.4 (34.4) (78.3) 1.1 (6.8) 25.8 387.4 15.3 (0.5) 130.1 (27.0) 35.5 784.3 239.2 65.1 28.3 (32.2) (79.4) 13.6 21.1 34.3 381.6 22.0 14.6 125.5 (20.4) 46.1 : , : IFRS

/(+2% YoY) (+3% YoY)

: ,

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

/

()

,

: ,

0

6

12

18

24

30

0

15

30

45

60

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

()()

() (%)

26


. 2013 /100 2012 20% . 2013 39% 120 . 2014 /100 . 2014 1,047(/100) .

2014 /100 . 35% 4% . 1,047(/100) 10% , EPS 4% .

/100 () 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2014F (%) 0 3 5 10 0 3 5 10 0 3 5 10 0 3 5 10 0 3 5 10/100 1,055 1,023 1,002 950 1,034 1,003 982 931 1,055 1,023 1,002 950 1,045 1,014 993 941 1,047 1,016 995 942 41.3 41.0 40.7 40.1 45.5 45.2 44.9 44.2 59.1 58.3 57.8 56.5 56.7 56.1 55.7 54.7 202.6 200.5 199.2 195.8 31.7 31.4 31.2 30.9 34.7 34.5 34.3 33.9 45.4 44.9 44.6 43.8 43.6 43.2 43.0 42.4 155.3 154.0 153.2 151.1 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.3 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.7 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.3 47.3 46.5 46.0 44.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.5 15.2 14.9 14.7 14.2 16.2 15.9 15.8 15.4 54.0 53.2 52.7 51.4 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.4 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.3 43.2 42.7 42.3 41.3 EPS () 415 412 408 399 465 461 457 447 586 580 572 554 625 617 611 597 2,094 2,069 2,049 1,999 (%) (0.75) (1.59) (3.69) (0.81) (1.66) (3.78) (1.07) (2.35) (5.54) (1.21) (2.12) (4.40) (1.18) (2.14) (4.55):

/100

: Bloomberg,

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14

()/100 ()

()()

/

: ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

40

80

120

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2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

() () ()

() (%)

1,047 2014 35%

27


:

12 () 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 154.3 266.0 292.6 348.6 408.8 83.3 129.8 154.7 175.7 207.5

12.7 35.8 63.2 71.0 93.1 14.3 28.4 27.0 34.3 39.4 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.6 4.2

71.0 136.2 137.9 172.9 201.3 4.4 20.4 34.8 46.5 56.3 5.6 8.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 48.1 94.7 90.1 113.8 132.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.9 53.7 50.7 63.5 73.5 43.9 52.4 49.5 61.9 71.7

2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 20.4 32.5 30.9 39.0 45.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0( ) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.4 212.3 241.9 285.1 335.4

8.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 55.3 118.9 118.9 118.9 118.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 (0.6) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 44.8 81.9 111.5 154.7 204.9

108.4 212.3 241.9 285.1 335.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3*() (47.9) (75.2) (103.1) (111.0) (133.0) 12 () 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 22.8 31.7 44.3 50.2 58.1

16.5 37.2 29.6 43.2 50.2 1.1 1.4 5.6 5.3 5.2 3.9 5.0 8.1 0.4 0.0() (0.2) 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0() (0.1) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2), , () 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 (13.7) 0.0 (0.4) 0.3() (6.2) (12.1) (7.4) (10.8) (12.6) 6.4 11.7 7.6 11.7 14.2

(20.5) (73.4) (15.6) (40.9) (33.8)(CAPEX) (1.7) (17.3) (20.0) (17.0) (15.0) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0() (4.3) (6.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0() (14.0) (40.4) 4.6 (23.7) (18.6) (0.8) (9.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)

FCF 24.6 16.1 21.7 25.7 33.9 0.6 65.1 (0.5) 0.0 0.0

() 0.0 0.0 (0.5) 0.0 0.0() 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 64.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 (0.8) (1.5) (2.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0() 3.0 23.1 27.4 7.8 22.0

9.7 12.7 35.8 63.2 71.0 12.7 35.8 63.2 71.0 93.0

: ,

12 () 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 109.9 168.6 160.4 202.6 235.7

(%) 27.2 53.3 (4.8) 26.3 16.3 73.1 99.9 100.3 125.7 146.2 36.9 68.6 60.1 76.9 89.5

(%) 33.5 40.7 37.5 38.0 38.0 16.4 20.8 25.2 29.6 34.6 20.5 47.8 34.9 47.3 54.9

(%) (19.5) 133.3 (27.0) 35.5 15.9 (%) 18.6 28.4 21.8 23.4 23.1

0.1 (0.3) 2.1 6.7 7.9 1.1 5.1 2.3 3.2 4.4 (1.0) (5.3) (0.2) 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.6 47.6 37.0 54.0 62.8 4.1 10.4 7.4 10.8 12.6 16.5 37.2 29.6 43.2 50.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.5 37.2 29.6 43.2 50.2 (%) (24.4) 125.5 (20.4) 46.2 16.2 (%) 15.0 22.1 18.4 21.3 21.3() 16.5 37.2 29.6 43.2 50.2() 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.1 38.4 29.6 43.2 50.2() 16.1 38.4 29.6 43.2 50.2() 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 25.5 54.2 48.6 53.0 60.0 (%) (9.0) 112.7 (10.4) 9.1 13.2EBITDA (%) 23.2 32.2 30.3 26.2 25.5

: 2012 K-IFRS (-) 12 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

EPS (, ) 889 1,857 1,437 2,094 2,433EPS (, ) 889 1,857 1,437 2,094 2,433BPS (, ) 5,816 10,394 11,715 13,809 16,242BPS (, ) 5,816 10,394 11,715 13,809 16,242DPS () 0 0 0 0 0PER (, ) 45.8 24.5 30.8 20.8 17.9PER (, ) 45.8 24.5 30.8 20.8 17.9PBR (, ) 7.0 4.4 3.8 3.1 2.7PBR (, ) 7.0 4.4 3.8 3.1 2.7EV/EBITDA () 27.8 15.8 16.7 14.8 12.7EV/EBIT () 34.6 17.9 23.2 16.6 13.9 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITTDA (%) 23.2 32.2 30.3 26.2 25.5 (%) 18.6 28.4 21.8 23.4 23.3 (%) 15.0 22.1 18.4 21.3 21.3ROA (%) 12.3 17.7 10.6 13.5 13.3ROE (, %) 16.9 23.2 13.0 16.4 16.2ROIC (%) 357.5 208.7 79.5 85.4 79.2

(%) 42.4 25.3 21.0 22.3 21.9 (%) (44.2) (35.4) (42.6) (38.9) (39.7) (%) 29.0 68.3 127.7 114.7 129.8 () 639.1 15,401.4 12,153.8 18,206.5 21,104.3

() (21.8) (72.8) 58.3 64.8 64.8 () 6.1 4.9 6.7 5.9 6.1 () 33.1 46.2 63.0 55.2 57.0

: ,

28


(041510) ...

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01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14

()KOSDAQ ()

()

=100

(01/13=100)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14

() () ()

()

Trading BUY

www.shinhaninvest.com

: 1588-0365 23-2

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032) 323 9380 031) 392-1141 031) 622-1400 031) 907-3100 031) 657-9010 032) 464-0707 031) 246-0606 032) 819-0110 031) 715-8600 031) 381-8686 031) 862-1851 051) 516-8222 055) 297-2277 051) 243-0707 052) 273-8700 055) 285-5500 051) 505-6400 055) 355-7707 051) 818-0100 052) 257-0777 054) 451-0707 053) 944-0707 053) 793-8282 054) 855-0606 054) 252-0370 053) 423-7700 053) 642-0606 042) 484-9090 042) 823-8577 043) 296-5600 043) 232-1088 062) 232-0707 061) 791-8020 063) 286-9911 063)531-0606 062) 956-0707 063) 442-9171 061) 682-5262 033) 642-1777 064) 732-3377 064) 743-9011 PWM 02) 508-2210 02) 3478-2400 02) 778-9600 02) 2143-0800 051) 819-9011 02)523-7471 02)537-0885 02) 875-1851 02) 782-8331 Privilege 02) 559-3399 02) 554-6556 031)717-0280 02) 541-5566 02) 317-9100 Privilege 02) 6050-8100 02) 2649-0101 031)718-5015 02) 547-0202 051) 701-2200 / (1-212) 397-4000 852) 3713-5333 (86-21) 6888-9135/6 (84-8) 3824-6445

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, .( : , ) 1% . 1 . , . , . . , , .

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