Special Committee Futuristic Security Council

Topic B: Resolving Tensions in the Second Cold War

Chairs: Lucca Domingos

Camila Sarmento

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INDEX

Statistics/ Important Facts………………………..3­7

Background Information………………………….…3

Timeline……………………………………………...8

Key Terms………………………………………......17

Guiding Questions……………………………..……18

Further Research…………………………………..19

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Statistics/ Important Fact (Present Days, 2015)

Background Information Time frame of events: 2020­2050

Security Council Background­ Under the Charter, the Security Council has primary

responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 Members, and

each Member has one vote. Under the Charter, all Member States are obligated to comply with

Council decisions. Only 5 members are permanent members and have VETO power, the other 10

members are non­permanent members elected for two­year terms by the General Assembly.

From its creation till 2020, the Permanent members were: China, France, Russia Federation, the

United Kingdom, and the United States of America. However in 2020 there was a slight change

in the permanent members, as one more state was added, making it 6 permanent members, and

now they are: China, France, Germany, Russia Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United

States of America. While the elected non­ permanent members (with end of term date), are:

Argentina (2021), Netherlands (2022), Iran (2021), Australia (2021), Chile (2022), Lebanon

(2022), Egypt (2021), Israel (2022), India(2021) and Pakistan (2021).

German Addition: Germany was added to the permanent members in December 23rd, 2019,

due to the country’s stability and influence on the world. Still in December, the military leader

General Reltih Floda Izan conducted a coup d`état and overthrew the German Democratic Party,

establishing a dictatorial regime. Which was supported by 93% of Germany’s population in a

referendum carried in 2020.

Cold War II background­

Much has changed since Russia's

decision to annex Crimea in 2014,

however, old enmities still thrive,

feeding off the rancour that has

existed since the first Cold War

began. The world has once again

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been split into two blocs, in 2020, with the USA and the Russian Federation going head to head.

With neither party showing signs of backing off, nuclear war is imminent.

Russia has annexed all of Ukraine, and through several strategic treaties has obtained the facto

control of the states that were originally a part of the Soviet Union, turning the Eurasian

Economic Union (EEU) into the Union of Eurasian States (EES), with only Georgia holding out.

After NATO planes bombed Russian aircraft factories in Rostov­on­Don, in 2049, Russia has

armed over 200 Sarmat Heavy Intercontinental ballistic missiles and has reportedly begun

arming all of their RS­24 “Yars” ICBM's (Inter­Continental Ballistic Missile) as well as bombing

NATO bases across Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

The United States, along with it's NATO allies, has condemned Russian actions in the UN, and

has justified their attacks on Russian bases across the newly formed Union as attempts to

“enforce the basic right to self determination of every country.”

Israel has annexed the Sinai Peninsula and parts of Lebanon and Syria as well as the West Bank

and Gaza, and has subsequently set up military bases in the region with the capability to launch

nuclear warheads. There have been allegations of United States and United Kingdom

involvement in the establishment of these bases. A large number of Palestinian refugees have

fled from these regions to Jordan and Egypt, or into UN Camps, established in Lebanon.

India has left the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations and has broken

all trade with China, after repeated Chinese incursions in what they claim is their sovereign

territory and has strengthened trade relations with the EU and South American nations, such as

Chile.

China has created a 2,000,000 strong border force present from Aksai Chin to Tamang. Beijing

demands that India withdraw its troops up to 200 km from the current border as it believes it to

be Chinese territory.

In the midst of 2049, due to continuous support of the USA to India, China broke all economic

relations with the US and declared its position in the world as the “strongest of the superpower”.

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The world was now divided into 3 blocs led by USA, China and the Russian Federation (also

called the EES). China also placed ICBM's and MRV’s turned to both the USA and Russia.

China in an attempt to gather allies, improved relations with Pakistan, Iran, and Lebanon through

military and financial aid. This act has also increased regional tensions in the middle East, with

three nuclear powers at the brink of war.

(detailed events explained in timeline)

Antarctica / Antarctica War Background­

Until the 2030’s, there were many countries claiming territories of the South Pole

(Antarctic Continent), including Australia, France, Norway, the UK, Argentina, Chile, and New

Zealand. The US, China and Russia reserved rights to make claims without having formalizing

it, until the late 1930’s when all three nations claimed the . Many other countries did not actually

recognized most of these claims and were still highly interested in the region due to the myriad

valuable natural resources available on the continent.

Antarctica is undeniably important, till today (2050), to scientific research and abundant

in natural resources. At the moment, the countries cited above claim around more than 3/4 of the

continent's total area with some of

their claims overlapping. Such

countries are a part of the Antarctic

Treaty but most of the members of

the treaty do not actually recognize

their claims. The Antarctic Treaty

was first signed in Washington on

December 1st, 1959 by countries

whose scientists had been active in

and around Antarctica during the

International Geophysical Year

(1957­58), as a result of a worldwide

momentum which called for an extreme action, and the demilitarization of Antarctica. The main

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commitment that this treaty demanded from the signatories was guaranteeing Antarctica's future

peaceful usage, aiming to benefit all humanity. In addition, the conservation of the parties' efforts

toward the avoidance of strife. Nevertheless, this treaty does not recognize any territorial claim

made by any country in the past, present or future.

The treaty entered into force

in 1961 and was acceded to by many

other nations. On July 3rd, 2038, a

second Antarctic Treaty was

signed, also in washington, but this

time the US, China and Russia were

added to the treaty. The aim of the

the second Antarctic Treaty was to

ensure that no country would extract

resources from the continent and to

maintain peace in the area.

The first country to make official claims over the Antarctic territory was the Great

Britain in 1908. However, a Norwegian explorer reached Antarctica before Great Britain and

placed down a Norwegian flag in order to claim the territory as theirs. This was just one of the

many expeditions made by many countries to the continent. In 2034 a Chinese authority tried to

ship 3,400 Chineses to Antarctica to develop the first city and claim Antarctica as Chinese,

however the idea was condemned by the UN and China withdrew.

In the first decade of the 20th Century, three countries ­ United Kingdom, Argentina and

Chile ­ claimed a part of the region called the Antarctic Peninsula to be rightfully theirs for

sovereignty, but these territories claims overlap, creating tense conflict between such nations. In

the 4th decade of the 21th Century, three countries ­ China, USA and Russia­ also claimed the

Western Antarctica (region that was never claimed before), creating tension and conflict among

the superpowers of the world.

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With the shift in temperature, due to climate

change, in the years of 2045 to 2050, Antarctica

lost 45% of its land territory, which was originally

composed by ice and 97% of its ice cap, which

before covered 98% of Antarctica. This brought

more tension to the territorial disputes over

Antarctica. With the loss of almost all the ice in

Antarctica Continent, scientists were able to study

the Antarctic soil and discovered that it contains

more than 300.4 billion barrels of oil reserve,

which is equivalent to 200 or more years worth of

reserves of oil. Much more than what Venezuela had in 2015, when it was considered the holder

of the largest oil reserves in the world.

Immediately after the discovery in late 2047, claims for Antarctica started pop up again

and with more intensity than ever before. The countries were clearly desperate for the oil to

reconstruct their economies, which had been really badly shaken by the increase in sea level,

which submerged many important economic and cultural cities of these countries.

On January 2050, the American president, Jonh Marshall, spoke at the UN urging the

sovereignty of the Western side of Antarctica due to the fact that it was the country who suffered

the most with the increase in sea levels. The Security Council could not agree with any solution

for the American urges. All resolution proposed by the US were vetoed by Russian Federation

and China.

On february, 2050, president Marshall ordered the installation of 40 oil wells in Western

Antarctica. Soon after, February 8th, Russia and China declared war on the USA over the region

of Antarctica, claiming that the US violated the Antarctic Treaty.

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Timeline

2020­2050

2020­ February 4: Germany added to the P5.

2020­ July 1: The Eurasian Union is formed, and as a result Russia has de facto control Belarus

and Kazakhstan. Western Media nicknames the EEU "the New Soviet Union."

2021­ July 2: Armenia joins the Eurasian Union.

2021­August 11: A second Minsk Protocol (deal between Ukraine and pro­russian rebels) is

signed after the first one falls apart.

2022­ November 1: Kyrgyzstan joins the Eurasian Union.

2023­ February 16: Newly elected Russian president, Vladimir Nilats Vehcaborg, meets with the

american president at the White House. Vehcaborg speaks of Russian economic problems which

he states were threatening the survival of its regime, and advises that if a firm stand is taken on

Ukraine, then Vehcaborg will be deterred from war.

2025­ January 29: Iran and Egypt join the CSTO.

2026­ January 30: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu II makes a speech condemning

Egypt for joining the CSTO. He says "The United States has always promised to protect Israel,

and now Israel must promise to protect the United States." He threatens to renounce the 1979

Israel­Egypt Peace Treaty if Egypt declared war on the United States in the event that war breaks

out between the United States and Russia.

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2026­ March 14: Transnistria, a region of Moldova, joins the Eurasian Union. Moldova retaliates

by cutting off a Russian­Romanian trade route that goes through Moldovan territory. Vehcaborg

considers this action an act of war.

2026­ March 20: Russian troops occupy Moldova. The Moldovans cannot put up any organized

resistance.

2027­ May 27: Nilats Vehcaborg orders the Russian Navy to begin an expansion program with

the goal of returning to its pre­1991 size by 2020.

2028­ July 31: China signs pact with Pakistan, Lebanon, and Iran, pledging support in the

development of a MIRV nuclear missile to match India's Agni V.

2028­ September 26: China signs multi­billion dollar trade agreements with both Chile and

Argentina.

2029­ December 18: Nilats asks advisors to begin drawing up plans for an invasion of Ukraine.

2030­ December 21:China strengthens its troops on the Eastern Sino­Indian border

nearing Sikkhim and Arunachal Pradesh.

2031­ January 24: 39 Egyptian soldiers are killed in a border skirmish with Israel

2031­March 18: Israel once again refuses to allow the IAEA to inspect the Negev Nuclear

Research Center.

2032­ April 16: Estonia and Latvia join the EEU

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2032­ June 22: Egypt announces that it will begin a program of nuclear armament to ensure that

future peace is maintained. USA and China denounce and criticize Egypts act, while Russia

supports the initiative.

2032­ October 17: Egypt imports 200 SS­27 Topol M warheads from Russia.

2033­ April 21: Vehcaborg calls for a special session of the Duma. During his speech, he

renounces all START treaties, essentially beginning nuclear rearmament.

2033­October 26: Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, says in an interview that he does not

approve of Egypt's actions.

2034­November 30: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu officially announces that Israel possesses

and is developing nuclear weapons.

2034 ­ December 1: Chinese authority tried to ship 3,400 Chineses to Antarctica.

2034­December 16: The Arab League condemns what it terms “Israeli hypocrisy in

manufacturing nuclear weapons whilst pretending to want a Middle East free of weapons of mass

destruction.”

2035­ December 30: China signs a pact with Iran in which it agrees to provide military support

to one another if attacked by another country’s airforce or naval forces.

2036­February 14: Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan simultaneously announce the

start of their Nuclear Weapons program.

2037­ May 2: American attempts to make Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan sign

Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty fail.

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2038­ June 16: Arab League nations sign a pact with China which entails increasing arms

purchases from China and receiving Chinese assistance in establishing their Nuclear Weapons

programs.

2038­ June 30: The United States of America condemns the actions of the Arab nations and

China and advises against the escalation of tensions in the historically volatile region.

2038­ July 3: Second Antarctic Treaty Signed.

2039­ January 18: Iraq, Iran and Syria attempt to justify increased arms purchases by announcing

in a joint press conference of their Chiefs of Army Staff that they will be used in the fight against

ISIS.

2039­ August 15: India strengthens troops on Line of Actual Control; supplies them with

additional heavy armaments and creates two new divisions of troops for the region.

2040­ March 27: China announces that the region from Aksai Chin to Tamang will

be connected by road by July 2020.

2040­ November 19: NATO summit declares unconditional support for Ukraine if it's

sovereignty is violated. Reaffirms the importance of the right of every nation to self

determination.

2041­ December 27: 11 Israeli civilians killed in Jerusalem by rocket fire from HAMAS.

2042­ February 17: Israeli Defence Forces bomb Hamas headquarters in Gaza, killing Mahmoud

al­Zahar and Khaled Mashal.

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2042­ July 5: President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan is assassinated by the Taliban. There are

riots and clashes between the army and the Taliban across Afghanistan.The President of the

United States of America laments the loss and sends 10,000 troops to Afghanistan in attempts to

counter terrorism.

2042­ November 12: Iran sends in troops, as a humanitarian intervention, citing a “responsibility

to protect Afghani citizens, based on respect for the principles that underlie international law,

especially the underlying principles of law relating to sovereignty, peace and security, human

rights, and armed conflict.”

2043­ May 14: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan join the EEU.

2044­June 26: Iranian troops defeat Taliban fighters, however keep troops in Afghanistan until

next elections.The United States of America evacuate troops from the region.The president of

Iran calls this “a selfish act” on the part of the United States.

2044­ July 8: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemns Iranian actions as being an

infringement of their ally, Afghanistan's sovereignty.

2045­ August 19: During a visit to India, Nilats Vehcaborg proclaims support for Iran,

encourages India to also accept that Iranian actions are for the benefit of Afghanistan.

2045­ October 27: Border skirmish between Indian and Chinese forces in the disputed area of

Tamang, 89 soldiers dead.

2045­ November 24: US send 200 thousand troops to help India.

2045­ December 15: China increases the number of troops on Line of Actual Control ten fold.

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2046­ March 3: 42 people are killed in Sevastopol, as Ukrainian forces clash with Pro­Russian

separatists, violating the ceasefire. Amongst the dead are ethnic Russians.

2046­ April 15: Nilats begins mobilising troops on the border with Ukraine.

2046­ May 12: Mossad releases reports suggesting that Egypt armed and trained HAMAS as

troops for attack on Jerusalem in 2018.

2047­ April 23: Discovering of mass amounts of oil in Antarctica.

2047­ May 18: NATO hold emergency summit to discuss Ukraine issue.

2047­ May 22: NATO releases statement reminding Russia that an invasion of Ukraine would be

met with a strong, possibly armed, response.

2047­ June 14: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu makes the findings of Mossad report public,

says in a speech that the civilians must be avenged and that “Arab nations would pay for each

civilian life with a thousand of their troops.”

2047­ June 28: Following another clash of troops at the border in Nathu La, India

announces an embargo on any trade with China and formally leaves the BRICS association.

2047­ July 5: The fallout from the embargo has had severe consequences for both nations,

creating mass unemployment and a sharp fall in the value of the Indian Rupee.

2047­July 18: China announces that the road connecting Aksai Chin and Tamang has been

completed. It moves over 1,000,000 troops to the region, drawing from it's reserves.

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2047­ August 14: Attempts at beginning bilateral talks between India and China have thus far

failed, and the global economy begins to feel the impact.

2048­ January 30: Georgia refuses to join CSTO or EEU. Russia begins mobilising troops in

neighbouring Armenia.

2048­ February 28: The CSTO convenes their summit, reaffirms their casus foederis and

commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state to be an armed

attack against them all.

2048­ April 15: The EEU convenes.

2048­ March 28: Israel begins mobilising troops in Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, Gaza and on

borders with Lebanon and Jordan.

2048­ June 3: The Russian invasion of Ukraine begins with the Russian Air Force attacking

several targets in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian Navy attacks several targets in the Black Sea.

Libya, Lebanon, Belgium and Switzerland declare neutrality. The United States orders a general

mobilization of its troops. Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan join the Eurasian Union.

2048­ July 15: Israeli troops march on Sinai peninsula, West Bank, Gaza and on the Golan

Heights.

2048­ August 27: USA and it's allies try to pass a resolution in the UNSC, condemning Russian

actions and demanding a ceasefire. It is, however, vetoed.

2048­ October 2: Arab forces have been quickly over run by the IDF. Israel has annexed the

Sinai Peninsula and parts of Lebanon and Syria as well as the West Bank and Gaza.

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2048­ November 5: NATO and the EU issue to an ultimatum to Russia: Withdraw from Ukraine

or face war. Iran declares neutrality. Switzerland orders a general mobilization of its troops. The

United States reinstates the draft to include all able­bodied adult males born on or after

November 5, 1978 who are not currently enrolled in an educational institution. Russia annexes

Novorossiya.

2048­ December 22: IDF begins rounding up ethnic Arabs in Israel, along with any known

supporters of the Arabs or Hamas and expelling them from the country. No records are being

maintained of the refugees.

2049­ January 28: The last Ukrainian forces are expelled from Donetsk and Luhansk.

2049­ May 29: NATO launches attacks on Russian naval ships in the North Sea and in the Arctic

Ocean.

2049­ June 7: NATO planes bomb Russian aircraft factories in Rostov­on­Don, near Ukraine.

Russia responds by sanctioning the export of its oil to all NATO countries.China follows by

halting trade with the United States of America and to the EEU.

2049­ July 20: China breaks all economic relations with the US and declares itself as the world’s

“strongest superpower”.

2049­ August 12: Russia begins arming nuclear warhead equipped ICBMs.

2049­ November 19: China places ICBM’s and MRV’s turned to both USA and Russia.

2049­ December 14: Russia carries out strikes on the newly established NATO bases in Poland,

Romania and Bulgaria.China demands that the Indian troops on the Line of Actual Control be

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moved 200 km towards the Indian mainland as it is a breach of sovreignity. Prime minister

Narendra Modi responds by willing to participate in peace talks, however all attempts fail.

2050­ January 2: USA claimed sovereignty of the Western side of Antarctica.

2050­ February 6: USA ordered the installation of 40 oil wells in Antarctica.

2050­ February 15: Russia and China declared war over the USA.

2050­ February 20: FCC Convenes.

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Key Term

Cold War­ The state of political hostility that existed between the Soviet bloc countries and the

US­led Western powers from 1945 to 1990 characterized by measures of open warfare such as

threats and propaganda.

Non­Proliferation Treaty­ is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the

spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses

of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and

complete disarmament.

M.A.D.­ mutually assured destruction (MAD), is a doctrine of military strategy and national

security policy in which a full­scale use of high­yield weapons of mass destruction by two or

more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the

defender.

CSTO­ The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance,

acting as counterpart to the NATO alliance, which was signed on 15 May 1992.

EEU­ An economic union created in 2014 by a treaty signed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

The Eurasian Economic Union treaty allows citizens of EEU member countries the right to work

in any other member country without having to obtain special work permits and is expected to

reduce trade barriers among members.

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Guiding Questions

How can the use of weapons of mass destruction in on­going global wars

can be prevented?

How can world peace be secured?

How can the invasion of several countries by the Eurasian Union (Russia) be

resolved?

How to deal with dispute over sovereignty on the Indo­Sino border?

How to deal with Israeli occupation of the West Bank?

How to limit the development of weapons of mass destruction in countries

of the Middle East?

How to deal with EEU expansionism?

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Further Research

Further Research for this Committee can be done, but information must be approved by the

chairs. If the Delegate would like to predict a fact or state what will happen in the future (from

2020­2050), they must find relevant statistics or information (from today) that proves that what

the delegate is saying can happen in a determined time frame. The information must be sent via

email to the chairs, for the verification of veracity and approval:

16domingosl@pasb.com.br

16nettoc@pasb.com.br

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