strane direktne investicije kao oblik finansiranja globalne ekonomije

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STRANE DIREKTNE INVESTICIJE KAO

OBLIK FINANSIRANJA GLOBALNE EKONOMIJE

Rezime

Strane direktne investicije predstavljaju veoma značajan oblik finansiranja globalne ekonomije. U poređenju sa drugim oblicima međunarodnog kretanja kapitala, strane direktne investicije su najzastupljenije u finansiranju nacionalnih privreda zemalja u razvoju i zemalja u tranziciji. Analiza u radu, na nivou globalne svetske privrede, pokazuje da su ovim investicijama finansirana sva tri sektora svetske privrede, ali da je najzastupljeniji sektor usluga u okviru koga su, naročito, finansijske usluge značajno finansirane prilivima ovog kapitala. Sprovedena analiza za Srbiju, takođe, pokazuje da je finansijski sektor, pogotovo bankarstvo finansirano u velikoj meri direktnim investicijama iz inostranstva koje su rezultirale u značajnom porastu broja banaka u stranom vlasništvu na bankarskom tržištu Srbije i dominantnoj ulozi stranih banka u bankarskom sektoru Srbije.

Ključne reči: strane direktne investicije, globalna ekonomija, Srbija, finansiranje, bankarstvo

JEL: F21, F36, F43

UDK 339.727.22 ; 339.92 ; 336.71(497.11)

originalni naučni

rad

Rad primljen: 07.11.2012.

Odobren za štampu: 12.12.2012.

dr Sandra Stojadinović Jovanović

Ekonomski fakultet [email protected]

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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AS A

FORM OF FINANCING GLOBAL ECONOMY

Summary

Foreign direct investments are a very significant form of financing global economy. In comparison with other forms of the global capital movement, foreign direct investments are the most broadly present sources of financing of the national economies of developing countries and countries in transition. The analysis presented in this work, made at the level of the global world economy, shows that these investments are the ones that have financed all of the three sectors of the world economy, but their highest presence is to be found in the sector of services where the financial services have been especially and significantly financed from this source of capital inflow. The analysis was also conducted for Serbia showing that the financial sector, especially banking, was financed to a high extent by foreign direct investments, which have resulted in a substantial growth of the number of banks in foreign ownership on the banking market of Serbia and a predominant role of the foreign banks in the banking sector of Serbia.

Key words: foreign direct investments, global economy, Serbia, financing, banking

JEL: F21, F36, F43

UDC 339.727.22 ; 339.92 ; 336.71(497.11)

original scientific paper

Paper received: 07.11.2012

Approved for publishing: 12.12.2012

Sandra Stojadinović Jovanović, PhDFaculty of Economics [email protected]

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Uvod

Strane direktne investicije predstavljaju veoma značajan oblik finansiranja globalne ekonomije. U poređenju sa druga dva oblika međunarodnog kretanja kapitala, zajmovnog kapitala i portfolio investicija, strane direktne investicije su veoma zastupljene u finansiranju globalne svetske privrede i nacionalnih privreda individualnih zemalja, a pogotovo u finansiranju zemalja u razvoju i zemalja u tranziciji za koje predstavljaju primarni oblik finansiranja.

Značaj pojedinih oblika međunarodnog kretanja kapitala se vremenom menjao. U periodu nakon Drugog svetskog rata, pretežni udeo u ukupnim međunarodnim kretanjima kapitala i finansiranju svetske privrede, posebno zemalja u razvoju, imao je zajmovni kapital. Primarna uloga zajmova u globalnim razmerama se zadržala do osamdesetih godina dvadesetog veka. Promene nastaju u drugoj polovini osamdesetih godina kada, nakon dužničke krize, dolazi do stagnacije kretanja zajmovnog kapitala. Posle kulminacije dužničke krize, privatni kapital je prestao da odlazi u zemlje u razvoju u obliku zajmova, jer se privatni sektor uzdržao od svakog novog kreditiranja zemalja u razvoju, izuzev u obliku direktnih investicija.1 Upravo period od osamdesetih, pogotovo od devedesetih godina, dvadesetog veka je period ekspanzije stranih direktnih investicija.

U ovom radu se ukazuje na tendencije i strukturne aspekte međunarodnih tokova kapitala, zatim se obrađuje uloga i značaj stranih direktnih investicija (SDI) u svetskoj privredi i privredi Srbije. U radu će, u prvom delu, biti razmotrena uloga i značaj stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja globalne svetske privrede, a potom i njihova uloga i značaj u finansiranju privrede Srbije, usmerenost tokova stranih direktnih investicija i zastupljenost pojedinih sektora u finansiranju koje se ostvaruje putem ovih investicija.

Trendovi na međunarodnom tržištu kapitala

Tokom prethodne dve decenije, jedna od najznačajnijih karakteristika globalne ekonomije jeste smena porasta i padova ukupnih međunarodnih tokova kapitala u svetu (zajedno posmatranih stranih direktnih investicija, portfolio investicija i međunarodnog zajmovnog kapitala). U periodu od 1994. do 2007. godine, međunarodni tokovi kapitala su rasli u proseku za 24% godišnje. Međutim, sa svetskom finansijskom krizom, dolazi do kolapsa međunarodnih tokova kapitala u 2008. godini, jer su investitori postali oprezniji a banke nevoljne da međunarodno pozajmljuju. Ukupni međunarodni tokovi kapitala u svetu su opali sa 10,9 triliona USD u 2007. godini na samo 1,9 triliona USD u 2008. godini, što je predstavljalo pad od čak 83% u samo jednoj godini. Dalji pad globalnih tokova kapitala je nastavljen i u 2009. godini, na vrednost od 1,6 triliona USD.2 Tek u 2010. godini dolazi do oporavka ukupnih tokova kapitala na 4,4 triliona USD, mada je to činilo samo 40% od rekordnog nivoa iz 2007. godine (Slika 1). Pad ukupnih međunarodnih tokova kapitala, od rekordne vrednosti u 2007. godini do 2010. godine, je iznosio 6,5 triliona USD. Najveći deo ovog pada se desio usled kolapsa tržišta međunarodnog zajmovnog kapitala. Tokovi međunarodnog zajmovnog kapitala su, u 2008. i 2009. godini, bili negativni jer su banke povlačile kapital nazad, u svoje zemlje. Oporavak koji se desio u 2010. godini je odraz oporavka zajmovnog kapitala, mada su ukupni tokovi zajmovnog kapitala i dalje niski, na nivou od samo 25% od rekordne vrednosti u 2007. godini.

1 Kovač, Oskar. Platni bilans i međunarodne finansije. Beograd: CES MECON, str. 275-276.2 Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski. Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011. McKinsey Global Institute,

August 2011, p. 27.

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Introduction

Foreign direct investments are a very significant form of financing for the global economy. In comparison with the other two forms of the global capital movement, loan capital and portfolio investments, the foreign direct investments are very much present in financing global world economy and national economies of individual countries, especially in financing developing countries and those in transitions where they are a primary form of financing.

The importance of certain forms of global capital movement was changing in times. In the period following the Second World War, the prevailing share in the total global capital movement and financing of the world economy, especially in the developing countries, was the loan capital. The primary role of loans on a global scale was to prevail until the 1980s. Changes were to start in the second half of the 1980s, when after the debtor crisis, stagnation occurred in the movement of the loan capital. After the culmination was reached by the debt crisis, private capital ceased to flow into the developing countries in the form of loans, as the private sector refrained from any new crediting of the developing countries, except in the form of direct investments.1 Actually, it was the period from the 1980s, and especially from the 1990s that turned out to be a period of expansion of the foreign direct investments.

This paper presents tendencies and structural aspects of the global capital flows, examining the role and significance of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the world economy and the economy of Serbia. In part one of the paper the role and importance of foreign direct investments will be explored as the form of financing of the global world economy, and then their role and importance in financing the economy of Serbia, channelling of the foreign direct investment flows and the share of particular sectors in financing from these forms of investments.

Trends on the Global Capital Market

During the previous two decades, one of the most outstanding characteristics of the global economy was swings between growth and fall of total global capital flows in the world (an aggregate assessment of foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, and the global loan capital). In the period from 1994 to 2007, global capital flows were growing in an average of 24% annually. With the eruption of the world financial crisis, however, there was a collapse of the global capital flows in 2008, as investors became more prudent and banks reluctant to engage in global lending. The total global capital flows in the world fell from 10.9 trillion USD in 2007 to only 1.9 trillion USD in 2008, which was the fall as high as 83% in one year alone. Further fall in global capital flows continued in 2009, to a value of 1.6 trillion USD.2 It was only in 2010 that a recovery would be felt in the total capital flows, reaching 4.4 trillion USD, although it was only 30% of the record high level reached in 2007 (Figure 1). The fall of total global capital flows, from the record value in 2007 to 2010 amounted to 6.5 trillion USD. The major part of this fall was the result of global loan capital market collapse. Global loan capital flows were negative in 2008 and 2009, as the banks were withdrawing their capital back to their home countries. The recovery in 2010 is the reflection of recovery in the loan capital, although the total loan capital flow still remained low, at the level of only 25% of the record value recorded in 2007.

1 Kovac, Oskar. Platni bilans i medjunarodne financije (Balance of payment and international finances), Belgrade: CES MECON, p. 275-276.

2 Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski, Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011. McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011, p. 27.

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Struktura ukupnih međunarodnih tokova kapitala se razlikuje između razvijenih zemalja i zemalja u razvoju, a time i njihov značaj u finansiranju privreda ovih zemalja. U periodu 2000-2010. godine, za razvijene zemlje primarni oblici kretanja kapitala i izvori finansiranja njihovih privreda bili su međunarodni zajmovni kapital i portfolio investicije. Međutim, za zemlje u razvoju i zemlje u tranziciji najznačajniji izvor finansiranja njihovih privreda bile su strane direktne investicije, na koje je otpadalo 53% ukupnih tokova kapitala u ove zemlje (Slika 2). Otuda se može reći da su strane direktne investicije značajan izvor finansiranja globalne ekonomije, a sa aspekta zemalja kojima su ova sredstva najpotrebnija, tj. zemalja sa deficitom finansijskih sredstava, najznačajniji izvor finansiranja.

Strane direktne investicije kao oblik finansiranja globalne svetske privrede

Pod stranom direktnom investicijom možemo podrazumevati svaki oblik ulaganja u određenu kompaniju, odnosno svaki oblik finansiranja neke kompanije, kojim investitor (finansijer) stiče vlasničku kontrolu nad njom. Kako, kod ovih investicija, investitor ostvaruje vlasništvo, upravljanje i kontrolu nad kompanijom koju je finansirao svojom investicijom, to on snosi sav rizik vezan za poslovanje i rezultate poslovanja te kompanije. Iz tih razloga, direktna investicija u inostranstvu, za razliku od drugih oblika međunarodnog finansiranja

putem privatnog kapitala, za investitora nosi najveći rizik. Ali, kako sa ovim rizikom ide i mogućnost ostvarenja većeg profita u odnosu na druge oblike međunarodnog kretanja kapitala, to je i najveći deo međunarodnog kretanja kapitala bio podstaknut ovim motivima i uključivao finansiranje putem stranih direktnih investicija. Iz ovih razloga je finansiranje putem stranih direktnih investicija postalo dominantan oblik međunarodnog kretanja kapitala i finansiranja globalne ekonomije odnosno njenih nacionalnih privreda.

Finansiranje putem stranih direktnih investicija može se realizovati na različite načine, kroz grinfild ili braunfild investicije, zajednička ulaganja i međunarodne merdžere i akvizicije. Dok finansiranje putem grinfild investicija znači

da se direktnom investicijom finansira izgradnja potpuno novih objekata u inostranstvu, braunfild investicija znači investiranje kojim se finansira revitalizacija i osavremenjivanje već postojećih objekata u inostranstvu. Zajednička ulaganja sa partnerom iz inostranstva predstavljaju specifičnu vrstu stranih direktnih investicija, kod kojih investitor ne odlučuje samostalno već zajedno sa domaćim partnerom. Međunarodni merdžeri i akvizicije podrazumevaju kupovinu, spajanja odnosno pripajanja dve firme iz različitih zemalja, s tim što

Slika 1. Međunarodni tokovi kapitala u svetu, 2007-2010

(trilioni USD)

Izvor: Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski, 2011, Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011, McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011, p. 28.

Slika 2. Struktura ukupnih međunarodnih tokova kapitala, po grupama zemalja, 2000-2010

(%)

Napomena: kategorija zemlje u razvoju uključuje i zemlje u tranziciji.Izvor: Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski, 2011, Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011, McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011, p. 29.

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The structure of total global capital flows diverges between developed and the developing countries, and hence their significance in financing economies of these countries. In the period 2000-2010, the primary forms of capital movement and financing sources for their economies were the global loan capital and portfolio investments. The developing countries, however, and the countries in transition found the most important source of finance for their respective economies in foreign direct investments, covering 53% of total capital inflows into these countries (Figure 2). Hence it may be said that the foreign direct investments are an important source of financing of the global economy, and from the aspect of the countries in highest need of these funds, i.e.

countries with a deficit of financial resources, the most important source of financing.

Foreign direct investments as a form of financing global world economy

Foreign direct investment implies all forms of investment into a given company, i.e. all forms of financing of a given company where the investor (financier) acquires ownership control over the company. Since the investor in these forms of investment acquires ownership, management and control of the company that he has financed with his investment, he bears all the risks involved in business and results of that

company. For this reason, direct investment abroad, opposite of other forms of global financing through private capital, bears the highest risk for the investor. Nevertheless, since this risk involves also the option of making higher profit in respect to the other forms of global capital movement, so has the major part of the global capital movement been boosted by this incentive, involving also financing through foreign direct investments. For this reason financing through foreign direct investments became a predominant form of global capital movement and financing of global economy, i.e. its national economies.

Financing through foreign direct investments may be realised in different ways: through greenfield or brownfield investments,

joint ventures, and the cross-border mergers and acquisitions. While financing through the greenfield investments implies direct investment into financing construction of a brand new structure abroad, the brownfield investment designates investment into financing revitalisation and upgrading of the already existing property abroad. Joint ventures with a foreign partner are a specific form of foreign direct investment where the investor can not independently decide, but must share decision making process with his domestic partner.

Figure 1 Global Capital Flows, 2007-2010 (Trillion USD)

Source: Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski, Mapping Global Capital Market 2001, McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011, p. 28

FDIsEquityDebt securitiesLoan capital

Figure 2 Structure of Total Global Capital Flows per groups of countries, 2000-2009

(%)

Note: developing countries category also covers countries in transitionsSource: Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski, 2011, Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011, McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011, p. 29

FDIs

Equity

Debt securities

Loans to the non-banking sector

Interbank loans

Developed countries Developing countries

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međunarodni merdžeri podrazumevaju spajanja dve jednake firme iz različitih zemalja kada se osniva nova firma, a međunarodne akvizicije podrazumevaju spajanja dva nejednaka partnera u kojima jedna kompanija preuzima drugu koja postaje njena filijala. Različiti načini na koje se mogu realizovati strane direktne investicije, pogotovo merdžeri i akvizicije, postali su preovlađujući načini finansiranja poslovnih aktivnosti kompanija. Sa druge strane, investitori koji preduzimanjem direktnih investicija u inostranstvu finansiraju aktivnosti kompanija u drugim zemljama, na ovaj način proširuju svoje poslovanje van nacionalnih granica postajući vlasnici koji imaju kontrolu nad poslovanjem finansiranih kompanija u inostranstvu.

Rastuća uloga stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja globalne svetske privrede dešava se u periodu posle Drugog svetskog rata, a naročito se intenzivira u poslednjoj deceniji dvadesetoga veka. Period poslednje decenije dvadesetoga veka je naročito doprineo da se poveća značaj stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja svetske privrede. To je bio period brojnih reformi u svim delovima sveta, uključujući reforme u Kini, prestanak hladnog rata, pad Berlinskog zida i ujedinjenje Nemačke, raspad Istočnog bloka i mnogih federalnih država (Sovjetskog Saveza, Čehoslovačke, SFR Jugoslavije), kao i proces tranzicije ovih i drugih zemalja iz centralno-planskih u tržišne privrede kojim su se ove zemlje otvorile prema spoljnjem svetu. Otvaranjem ovih zemalja i otklanjanjem brojnih barijera koje su ove zemlje postavile u svojim odnosima sa drugim zemaljama, uključujući i prepreke u kretanju kapitala, otvorile su se mogućnosti za kretanje kapitala i investiranje širom sveta. U ovom periodu otpočinje intenzivno finansiranje ovih zemalja prilivima stranog kapitala.

Finansiranje globalne ekonomije putem stranih direktnih investicija kontinuirano se povećavalo tokom druge polovine dvadesetoga veka, a naročito u poslednjoj deceniji dvadesetoga veka, kada su prilivi stranih direktnih investicija sa 225 milijardi USD prosečno godišnje u periodu 1990-1995. godina narasli na 1,4 biliona USD u 2000. godini, što je bio njihov najviši nivo do tada (Tabela 1). Nakon

trogodišnjeg uzastopnog opadanja, tokovi stranih direktnih investicija u svetu posle 2003. godine ponovo beleže kontinuiran porast do 2007. godine, kada dostižu rekordni nivo, koji je za preko 500 milijardi USD bio viši od nivoa iz 2000. godine, približavajući se 2 biliona USD. Sa svetskom finansijskom krizom, finansiranje putem stranih direktnih investicija je opalo u 2008. i naročito 2009. godini. Do njihovog oporavka dolazi u 2010. godini, kada ostvaruju porast od 5% i premašuju 1,3 biliona USD. Porast se nastavlja i u 2011. godini, kada tokovi stranih direktnih investicija u svetu beleže porast za 16%, na nivo preko 1,52 biliona USD, čime strane direktne investicije postaju veoma značajan oblik finansiranja svetske privrede. Prema prognozama i očekivanjima budućeg kretanja tokova stranih direktnih investicija u svetu, može se očekivati da će ove investicije i dalje biti veoma značajan kanal finansiranja svetske privrede.

Posmatrano po sektorima, prilivima stranih direktnih investicija u svetskoj privredi najviše je finansiran sektor usluga. Strane direktne investicije jesu rasle u sva tri sektora, primarnom, sekundarnom i tercijarnom, ali je najveći deo, rastući, odlazio u tercijalni sektor. U periodu 1990-2009. godine, učešće sektora

Tabela 1. Prilivi stranih direktnih investicija u svetu

(milioni USD)Godina Prilivi SD

1990-1995(god. prosek) 225.321

1996 386.1401997 481.9111998 690.9051999 1.086.7502000 1.387.9532001 817.5742002 678.7512003 559.5762004 742.1432005 958.6972006 1.463.3512007 1.975.537 2008 1.790.7062009 1.197.8242010 1.309.0012011 1.524.422

Izvor, UNCTAD, World Investment Report, razne godine, UN, New York and Geneva.

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The cross-border mergers and acquisitions designate buying, merging and integration of two firms from different countries, while the cross-border mergers are the act of merging of two equitable firms from different countries resulting in the incorporation of a new firm. Cross-border acquisitions are a merger between two inequitable partners where one company is taking over the other one, turning it into its affiliate. Different ways in which foreign direct investment may be realised, especially mergers and acquisitions, have become the prevailing manner of financing business activities of companies. On the other hand, investors venturing into foreign direct investments financing activities of companies in other countries are expanding in this manner their businesses beyond national borders becoming owners with control powers over business of companies financed abroad.

The growing role of foreign direct investments, as a form of financing global world economy, started to emerge in the period after the Second World War, to become especially intensified during the last decade of the 20th century. The period of the last decade of the 20th century especially boosted the importance of foreign direct investments as a form of financing world economy. This was a period of many reforms taking part throughout the world, including reforms in China, termination of the cold war, the fall of the Berlin Wall and unification of Germany, the collapse of the Eastern Block and of many other federal states (the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, SFR of Yugoslavia), but also a transition process of these and other countries from the centrally planned into market economies, when these countries opened up towards the outside world. With the opening of these countries and the elimination of many barriers erected by them in their relations with the outside world, including barriers to the movement of capital, opportunities were opening up for the movement of capital and investments throughout the entire world. This was the period when intensive financing started in these countries through the inflow of foreign capital.

Financing of global economy through foreign direct investments continued to grow during the second half of the 20th century, and

especially was intensive in the last decade of the 20th century, when the inflow of foreign direct investments grew, from 225 billion USD in an annual average in the period 1990-1995, to 1.4 trillion USD in 2000, which was their highest level ever attained (Table 1). After a three-year consecutive fall, foreign direct investment flows in the world, after 2003, recorded again continuous growth up to 2007, when a record level was reached of over 500 billion USD in excess to the level of 2000, getting close to 2 trillion USD. When the world economic crisis erupted, financing through foreign direct investments fell in 2008, and especially in 2009. Their recovery was to start in 2010, when a growth was recorded of 5% exceeding 1.3 trillion USD. The growth was to continue also in 2011, when the foreign direct investments flow in the world reached a growth of 16%, at the level of over 1.52 trillion USD, thus positioning foreign direct investments as a very significant form of financing world economy. According to the projections and expectations for future movement of the foreign direct investment flows in the world, it is to be expected that these investments will still remain to be a very significant channel for financing world economy.

Table 1 Foreign direct investments flow in the world

(Million USD)Year FDIs inflows

1990-1995(annual average) 225.321

1996 386.1401997 481.9111998 690.9051999 1.086.7502000 1.387.9532001 817.5742002 678.7512003 559.5762004 742.1432005 958.6972006 1.463.3512007 1.975.537 2008 1.790.7062009 1.197.8242010 1.309.0012011 1.524.422

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report, various years, UN, New York and Geneva

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usluga u ukupnom stoku ulaznih stranih direktnih investicija u svetu je, sa 49% poraslo na 63%, dok je učešće obadva druga sektora značajno opalo: primarnog sa niskih 9,4% na još nižih 7,3%, a naročito sekundarnog sa 41% na 27,6% (Tabela 2).

U okviru sektora usluga, strane direktne investicije su najviše odlazile u finansijske usluge, u okviru kojih je naročito raslo investiranje u bankarski sektor. Poslednjih godina naročito su povećavane strane direktne investicije u sektor finansijskog posredovanja usled velikih investicija koje su, u najvećoj meri, preduzimale strane banke. Savremeni trend u bankarstvu podrazumeva da velike banke izlaze na inostrana tržišta, preduzimaju direktne investicije u bankarske institucije drugih zemalja, čineći ih svojim filijalama ili ograncima. Otuda s a v r e m e n o b a n k a r s t v o karakteriše i trend porasta priliva stranih direktnih i n v e s t i c i j a odnosno rasta učešća stranog kapitala (filijala stranih banaka) u bankarskim sektorima zemalja domaćina stranih direktnih investicija.

Analiza strukture vlasništva bankarskog sektora zemalja Evropske unije, SAD kao i zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope pokazuje da je pojačano finansiranje bankarskog sektora ovih zemalja prilivima stranih direktnih investicija dovelo do rasta učešća stranog kapitala u

njihovim bankarskim sektorima, odnosno do porasta broja i uloge stranih banaka.

Tako je, u slučaju zemalja članica Evropske unije, učešće stranog kapitala u bankarskom sektoru dostiglo 29% (Tabela 3). Pri tome, u analizi strukture vlasništva bankarskog sektora

zemalja članica Evropske unije, uočava se razlika između starih i novih članica Evropske unije. Analiza strukture vlasništva bankarskog sektora starih članica Evropske unije (EU15), pre priključenja novih članica, pokazuje da je u bankarskom sektoru zemalja EU15 dominirao bankarski kapital zemalja EU15. Do promene u vlasničkoj strukturi bankarskog sektora Evropske unije dolazi kada se Evropskoj uniji priključuju manje razvijene zemlje odnosno sa formiranjem EU27.

Novopriključene, manje razvijene zemlje Evropske unije karakteriše visoko učešće stranog kapitala u njihovim bankarskim sektorima, što je dovelo do promene ukupne strukture vlasništva bankarskog sektora EU27. Podaci pokazuju da je, u periodu 2004-2007. godine, učešće stranog kapitala u bankarskom sektoru novih članica Evropske unije, EU (27-15), povećano sa 24,7% na 70,3%, što je dovelo i do povećanja učešća stranog kapitala u ukupnom bankarskom sektoru EU27 sa 24,7% na 28,7% (Tabela 3).

Struktura vlasništva bankarskog sektora Sjedinjenih Američkih Država, takođe, pokazuje istu tendenciju, odnosno porast učešća stranog kapitala i broja stranih banaka. Tako se, u SAD, broj banaka sa stranim kapitalom povećao više od dva puta, sa 2.483 na 5.106 u periodu 1999-2005. godina (OECD, 2008, str. 594).

Tabela 2. Sektorska distribucija svetskog stoka ulaznih stranih direktnih investicija, 1990 i 2007

1990 2009

Mlrd USD

Učešće u svetskom stoku (%)

Mlrd USD

Učešće u svetskom stoku (%)

Primarni 167 9,4 1 305 7,3Sekundarni 729 40,9 4 962 27,6Usluge 869 48,8 11 309 63,0

Izvor: učešća izračunata prema UNCTAD, 2007, World Investment Report 2007, UN, New York and Geneva, p. 225 i UNCTAD database, Internet, http://unctad.org/Sections/dite_dir/docs/WIR11_web%20tab%2024.xls, 28/07/2012.

Tabela 3. Učešće filijala stranih banaka u bankarskom sektoru EU27, 2004-2007(%)

2004-2006 20072004 2005 2006 EU27 EU15 EU (27-15)

Ogranci iz EU 8,1 8,4 8,514,2 14,4 7,9

Ogranci iz drugih zemalja 4,5 4,7 4,7Banke iz EU 9,1 9,7 10,5

14,5 13,458

Banke iz trećih zemalja 3,0 3,2 3,5 4,4Učešće stranog kapitala 24,7 26,0 27,1 28,7 27,8 70,3*Učešće domaćeg kapitala 75,3 74,0 72,9 71,3 72,2 29,7

* Bez Rumunije i BugarskeIzvor: ECB, EU Banking Structure, razne godine (2005-2008), European Central Bank.

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According to sectors, foreign direct investment flows in the world economy mostly financed sector of services. Foreign direct investments did grow in all of the three sectors, the primary, secondary and tertiary, but the largest part was increasingly channelled into the tertiary sector. In the period 1990-2009, the share of services sector in the total stock of inflowing foreign direct investments in the world grew from 49% to 63%, while the share of the other two sectors combined significantly fell: in the primary sector, from low 9.4% to even lower 7.3%, and especially so in the secondary sector, from 41% to 27.6% (Table 2).

In the services sector foreign direct investments were mainly going to the financial services, where there was a particular growth of investment into the banking sector. During the last few years especially, foreign direct investments were increased in the financial intermediation (brokerage) sector because of large investments made particularly by the foreign banks. Modern trend in banking implies that large banks are venturing on foreign markets, undertaking direct investments into the banking institutions of other countries, rendering them their branches or affiliates. Hence the modern banking is characteristic for the trend of growth in the inflow of foreign direct investments, i.e. growth in share of foreign capital (foreign banks affiliates) in the banking sectors of the host countries of foreign direct investments.

The analysis of the ownership structure of the banking sector in the European Union countries, in the USA, and countries of the South East Europe shows that the financing of the banking sector of these countries was intensified by the inflow of foreign direct investments, having caused growth of share in the foreign capital in their banking sectors, i.e. growth of the number and role of foreign banks.

Consequently, in the case of the European Union member-countries, the share of foreign capital in the banking sector reached 29% (Table 3). In this case, in the analysis of the ownership structure of the banking sector in the European

Union countries, a difference is observed between the old and the new European Union members. The analysis of the ownership structure of the banking sector in the old EU member-countries (EU15), prior to the accession of the new members, shows that in the banking sector of the EU15 member-countries the predominant banking capital was that of the EU15 countries. The change in the ownership structure of the European Union banking sector occurred at the time when European

Union was joined by the less developed countries, i.e. when the EU27 was established. The newly joined and lesser developed European Union countries are characteristic for a high share of foreign capital in their banking sectors, which caused the changes to transpire in the overall ownership structure of the EU27 banking sector. Data shows that in the period 2004-2007 the share of foreign capital in the banking sector of the new European Union, EU (27-15), was increased from 24.7% to 70.3%, which caused the growth in the share of foreign capital in the overall EU27 banking sector, from 24.7% to 28.7% (Table 3).

Table 2. Distribution of the world stock of incoming foreign direct investments per sectors, 1990 and 2007

1990 2009

Billion USD

Share in the world stock (%)

Billion USD

Share in the world stock (%)

Primary 167 9,4 1 305 7,3Secondary 729 40,9 4 962 27,6Services 869 48,8 11 309 63,0

Source: Shares are calculated according to the UNCTAD, 2007, World Investment Report 2007, UN, New York and Geneva, p. 225, and UNCTAD database, Internet, http://unctad.org/Sections/dite_dir/docs/WIR11_web%20tab%2024.xls, 28/07/2012

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Zemlje regiona Jugoistočne Evrope, takođe, pokazuju značajnu tendenciju porasta priliva stranih direktnih investicija u njihove bankarske sektore, odnosno porasta učešća stranog kapitala u vlasničkoj strukturi svojih bankarskih sektora i uloge i značaja stranih banaka. Početkom devedesetih godina dvadesetoga veka, najveći deo bankarskog sektora zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope bio je nerazvijen. Proces tranzicije i tržišnih reformi, otvaranje za strano vlasništvo, privatizacija državne imovine i pripreme za članstvo u Evropsku uniju u pravcu stvaranja stabilnijih i atraktivnijih poslovnih okruženja, učinili su ovaj region privlačnim za strane direktne investicije, a posebno njegov uslužni sektor i u okviru njega finansijske usluge. U ukupnom stoku ulaznih stranih direktnih investicija u zemlje regiona Jugoistočne Evrope, najveći deo je otpadao na finansijske usluge, preko 30%, dok ni na jedan drugi sektor nije otpadalo preko 20% ovog stoka u 2008. godini (Tabela 4). Naročito je bankarski sektor bio atraktivan, i u njega su strane banke preduzimale velike investicije pripajajući domaće banke, prvenstveno vršeći privatizaciju domaćih banaka ili međunarodne merdžere i akvizicije sa domaćim bankama, a manje grinfild investicije.

Najznačajnije strane banke investitori u bankarski sektor zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope potiču iz Grčke i Austrije, a pored njih značajne su i banke koje potiču iz Francuske i Italije. Do 2005. godine, grčke banke su potrošile oko jednu milijardu dolara kupujući banke na Balkanu. U

2006-2007. godini najznačajnije međunarodne merdžere i akvizicije u bankarskom sektoru zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope sprovele su National Bank of Greece, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, ATE Bank i Piraeus Bank. National Bank of Greece je kupila u Turskoj Finansbank, u Srbiji Vojvođansku banku, u Rumuniji Banca Romaneasca i Banku u Bugarskoj, Eurobank je kupila u Turskoj Tekfenbank i u Bugarskoj DZI Bank i Postbank, u Srbiji je Alpha Bank kupila Jubanku, ATE Bank je kupila AIK Banku, dok je grčka Piraeus Bank kupila Atlas Banku (UNCTAD, 2008, str. 32). Pored grčkih i austrijskih banaka, i druge evropske banke su ulazile na bankarska tržišta zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope. Tako Bank Austria Creditanstalt, austrijska Raiffeisen i italijanske Unicredito i Banca Intesa imaju značajnu ulogu u ovom regionu. Sa druge strane, francuske Credit Agricole i Societe Generale su vršile akviziciju grčkih banaka. Među najveće akvizicije ovog regiona spadale su one u kojima je austrijska Erste Bank kupila rumunsku Banca Commercial Romania za 4,7 milijardi USD i belgijska Dexia tursku Denizbank FS za 2,4 milijarde USD (UNCTAD, 2008, str. 32).

U nove zemlje članice Evropske unije, Bugarsku i Rumuniju, strane banke su ulazile brzo kako bi ostvarile dominantnu poziciju. U Bugarskoj 83% banaka kontrolišu strani vlasnici. Vodeću ulogu u bankarskom sektoru Rumunije imaju strani vlasnici, pri čemu austrijske banke učestvuju sa 23% u strukturi vlasništva, a prate ih grčke banke sa 10% i italijanske banke sa 7% učešća. Rumunija se procenjuje kao najatraktivnije tržište za filijale stranih banaka jer, iako je drugo najveće tržište Centralne i Istočne Evrope, ima najmanje razvijen bankarski sistem (UNCTAD, 2008, str. 32).

Veliki prilivi stranih direktnih investicija i investicije stranih banaka u bankarski sektor zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope dovele su do ekspanzije strano-kontrolisanih banaka na bankarskim tržištima zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope. Učešće stranih banaka u bankarskoj imovini pojedinih zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope je sa ispod 20% povećano na preko 80% ili 90% u periodu od 2002. do 2008. godine (Grafikon 1). Uz to, kod mnogih od njih je porast učešća stranog kapitala u bankarskom sektoru bio nagao i radikalan. Tako je strano vlasništvo u

Tabela 4. Sektorska distribucija stoka ulaznih stranih direktnih investicija u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope, 2008

(%)

SektorUčešće u

ukupnom stoku ulaznih SDI

Finansije 32Trgovina 12Transport i skladištenje 9Hemijski proizvodi 7Poslovne aktivnosti 5Ostali sekundarni sektori 16Ostali tercijarni sektori 10Primarni sektor 3Ostali 6

Izvor: UNCTAD, 2010, World Investment Report 2010, Un, New York and Geneva, p. 52.

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The ownership structure of the banking sector in the United States of America is also manifesting the same tendency, i.e. the growth in share of foreign capital and the number of foreign banks. Thus in the USA the number of banks with foreign capital has more than doubled, growing from 2483 to 5106 in the period 1999-2005 (OECD, 2008, p. 594).

Countries of the South Eastern European region are also showing a significant tendency of growth in the inflow of foreign direct investments into their banking sectors, i.e. growth in share of foreign capital in the ownership structure of their respective banking sectors and an enhanced role and importance of foreign banks. In the early 1990s, the major part of the banking sectors in the South East European countries was undeveloped. The transition process and market reforms, opening up to the foreign ownership, privatisation of the state-owned property, and preparations for the European Union accession to membership in the direction of creating more stable and more attractive business climate, made this region attractive for foreign direct investments, and especially its sector of services and within this sector its financial services. In the total stock of incoming foreign direct investments in the countries of the South East European region, the major part was channelled in the financial services, over 30%, while none of the other sectors received more than 20% of this stock in the year 2008 (Table 4). Banking sector was especially attractive and foreign banks undertook large investments into it, acquiring domestic banks, primarily through privatisation of domestic banks, or through the cross-border mergers and acquisitions of domestic banks, with fewer green-field investments.

The most important foreign banks, investors in the banking sector of the South East European c o u n t r i e s , originate from Greece and Austria, and in addition to these banks, outstanding ones

are also the banks from France and Italy. Up to 2005, Greek banks have spent some one billion USD on the purchase of banks in the Balkans. In the period 2006-2007, the most important international mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector of the South East European countries were conducted by the National Bank of Greece, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, ATE Bank, and Piraeus Bank. National Bank of Greece bought in Turkey the Finansbank, in Serbia Vojvodjanska banka, in Romania Banca Romaneasca, and a bank in Bulgaria. Eurobank bought in Turkey Tekfenbank, and in Bulgaria DZI Bank and Postbank. In Serbia, Alpha Bank bought Jubanka. ATE Bank bought AIK Bank, while Greek Piraeus Bank bought Atlas Bank (UNCTAD, 2008, p. 32). In addition to the Greek and Austrian banks, other European banks as well were venturing into the banking market of the South East Europe countries. Hence the

Table 3 The share of foreign banks affiliates in the EU27 banking sector, 2004-2007 (%)

2004-2006 20072004 2005 2006 EU27 EU15 EU (27-15)

Affiliates from EU 8,1 8,4 8,514,2 14,4 7,9Affiliates from other

countries 4,5 4,7 4,7

EU banks 9,1 9,7 10,514,5 13,4

58Banks from third countries 3,0 3,2 3,5 4,4Share of foreign capital 24,7 26,0 27,1 28,7 27,8 70,3*Share of domestic capital 75,3 74,0 72,9 71,3 72,2 29,7

* Without Romania and BulgariaSource: ECB, EU Banking Structure, different years (2005-2008), European Central Bank

Table 4. Stock distribution per sectors of the incoming foreign direct investments in the countries of South East Europe, 2008

(%)

Sector

Share in total stock

of incoming foreign direct investments

Finance 32Trade 12Transport and storage 9Chemical products 7Business activities 5Other secondary sectors 16Other tertiary sectors 10Primary sector 3Other 6

Source: UNCTAD, 2010, World Investment Report 2010, Un, New York and Geneva, p. 52.

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bankarskoj imovini Crne Gore poraslo sa 17% u 2002. godini na više od 85% u 2008. godini, a u Srbiji u istom periodu je sa 25% povećano na 75%, dok je u Albaniji, Bosni i Hercegovini i Makedoniji učešće stranih banaka u ukupnoj bankarskoj imovini prešlo 90% u 2008. godini (Grafikon 1).

U vreme svetske ekonomske krize iz 2008. godine, kao i neposredno nakon, u bankarski sektor zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope najviše su investirale banke iz istih evropskih zemalja kao i u vreme pre finansijske krize. To su banke iz Austrije, Francuske, Grčke i Italije. U 2009. godini su, na primer, italijanska Banca Intesa i UniCredit posedovale gotovo 1/5 ukupne bankarske imovine u Srbiji, dok su austrijske Erste, Raiffeisen i Hypo Group Alpe Adria posedovale 1/3 bankarske imovine u Hrvatskoj (UNCTAD, 2010, str. 73). Procenjuje se da na grčke banke otpada u proseku 20% tržišnog učešća u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope.

Na ovaj način, strane banke su ušle na bankarska tržišta zemalja regiona Jugoistočne Evrope i u velikoj meri kontrolišu bankarski sektor ovog regiona, sa svim pratećim koristima i rizicima koje ova dominacija podrazumeva.

Strane direktne investicije kao oblik finansiranja privrede Srbije

Strane direktne investicije kao oblik finansiranja privrede Srbije tokom poslednje decenije dvadesetoga veka nisu imale značajniju ulogu. Niz nepovoljnih dešavanja i

velikih potresa koji su pogodili zemlju uticali su i na veoma nizak priliv stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiju. Do postepenog oživljavanja priliva direktnih investicija iz inostranstva u Srbiju došlo je tek u prvoj deceniji dvadesetprvoga veka, odnosno od 2001. godine (Grafikon 2). U narednim godinama, izuzev u 2004. godini, uloga stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja srpske privrede značajno je rasla. U 2006. godini, priliv stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiju je dostigao 4,2 milijarde USD, što predstavlja rekordnu vrednost priliva stranih direktnih investicija koji je Srbija do sada ostvarila. U ovoj

godini, Srbija je bila zemlja regiona Centralne i Istočne Evrope sa najvećim prilivom stranih direktnih investicija, koji je realizovan kroz privatizaciju srpske kompanije Mobi63 od strane norveške kompanije Telenor. Posle ove godine, prilivi stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiju beleže četvorogodišnje opadanje do 2010. godine, na nivo od 1,3 milijardu USD, nakon čega se oporavljaju u 2011. godini dostižući 2,7 milijarde USD, mada je to značajno ispod ostvarenog proseka 2006-2008. godine.

Grafikon 1. Učešće stranih banaka u ukupnoj bankarskoj imovini zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope, 2002 i 2008. godine

(%)

Izvor: UNCTAD, 2010, World Investment Report 2010, New York and Geneva, p. 52.

Grafikon 2. Prilivi stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiju

(u milionima USD

Izvor: NBS, Internet, http://www.nbs.rs/internet/cirilica/80/platni_bilans.html, 19/07/2012; UNCTAD, 2011, World Investment Report 2011, New York and Geneva, p. 190 i UNCTAD, 2012, World Investment Report 2012, New York and Geneva, p. 172.

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Bank Austria Creditanstalt, Austrian Raiffeisen, and Italian Unicredito and Banca Intesa are playing an important role in this region. On the other hand, French Credit Agricole and Societe Generale were making acquisitions of the Greek banks. Among the major acquisitions in this region were the ones in which the Austrian Erste Bank bought the Romanian Banca Commercial Romania for the sum of 4.7 billion USD, and the Belgian Dexia bough the Turkish Demizbank FS for 2.4 billion USD (UNCTAD, 2008, p. 32).

Foreign banks were entering into new EU member-countries, Bulgaria and Romania, very promptly in order to gain a predominant position. In Bulgaria, 83% of banks are under control of the foreign owners. The leading role in the banking system of Romania is in the hands of the new owners, where the Austrian banks are participating with 23% in the ownership structure, to be followed by the Greek banks with 10%, and Italian banks with 7% share. Romania is estimated to be the most attractive market for the foreign banks affiliates because it is the second largest market in the Central and Eastern Europe, yet it has the least developed banking system (UNCTAD, 2008, p.32).

Large inflow of foreign direct investments and investments of foreign banks in the banking sector of the South East European countries brought about an expansion of the foreign-controlled banks on the banking markets of the countries in South East Europe. The share of foreign banks in the banking assets of individual countries in South East Europe has grown, from below 20% to over 80%, or 90% in the period from 2002 to 2008 (Graph 1). In addition, in many of these cases the growth in share of foreign capital in the banking sector was swift and radical. Thus the foreign ownership in banking assets of Montenegro grew from 17% in 2002 to more than 85% in 2008, and in Serbia, during that same period, it was increased from 25% to 75%, while in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia the share of foreign banks in the total banking assets exceeded 90% in the year 2008 (Graph 1).

At the time of the world economic crisis in 2008, and immediately thereafter, the major investments made in the banking sector of the countries of South East Europe were the banks from the same European countries as the ones from the time prior to the crisis. These are the banks from Austria, France, Greece, and Italy. In 2009, for example, Italian Banca Intesa and UniCredit owned almost 1/5 of the total banking assets in Serbia, while the Austrian Erste, Raiffeisen and Hypo Group Alpe Adria were the owners of 1/3 of the banking assets in Croatia (UNCTAD, 2010, p. 73). It is estimated that the Greek banks are holding an average of 20% of the market share in the countries of South East Europe.

In this manner, foreign banks have entered the banking markets of the countries in the region of South East Europe and are to a great extent controlling the banking sector of this region, with all the complementary benefits and risks that this domination entails.

Foreign direct investments as a form of financing economy in Serbia

Foreign direct investments, as a form of financing economy in Serbia, did not play any significant role during the last decade of the twentieth century. A series of disadvantageous events and great turbulence that had stricken the country impacted a very low inflow of foreign direct investments into Serbia. Gradual revival of the inflow of foreign direct investments into Serbia started only in the first decade of the 21st

Graph 1 The share of foreign banks in the total banking assets of the South East European countries, 2002 and 2008

(%)

Source: UNCTAD, 2010, World Investment Report 2010, New York and Geneva, p. 52.

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Finansiranje srpske privrede putem direktnih investicija najviše vrše investitori iz zemalja Evropske unije i zemalja regiona Centralne i Istočne Evrope, kao i pojedinih udaljenih zemalja (SAD, Rusije, Japana i Izraela), pri čemu se značaj ovih zemalja razllikuje u pojedinim godinama.

Prilivima stranih investicija, inicijalno, najviše je finansirana trgovina. Sa značajnim rastom priliva stranih direktnih investicija u zemlju, posle 2004. godine, dolazi i do njihove sve veće usmerenosti u finansijski sektor. U 2005. godini, sektor koji je u najvećoj meri privlačio strane direktne investicije bilo je finansijsko posredovanje, što je bio trend koji se nastavio i u narednim godinama U periodu od 2005. do 2008. godine, vodeći sektor u koji su pristizale direktne investicije iz inostranstva bilo je finansijsko posredovanje, koga su, zavisno od godine, različitim redosledom, sledili: telekomunikacije, prerađivačka industrija, poslovi sa nekretninama i trgovina (NBS, 2012, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_11.xls, 29/07/2012).

U 2006. godini ubedljivo najveći primalac stranih direktnih investicija u zemlji bilo je finansijsko posredovanje, u koje je otišlo preko 1/3 ukupnih priliva stranih investicija u zemlju (Grafikon 3). Na ovaj način je trend koji je karakterisao svetske tokove stranih direktnih investicija, a to je njihova usmerenost u sektor usluga, a u okviru njega u finansijske usluge, bio prisutan i u privredi Srbije. U 2011. godini, finansijske delatnosti i delatnost osiguranja su bile treći po redu najveći primalac stranih direktnih investicija, posle trgovine

i prerađivačke industrije (NBS, 2012, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_11.xls, 29/07/2012).

Među strane kompanije koje su preduzele najveće investicije u Srbiji, u periodu 2002-2009. godina, spadaju i četiri iz sektora bankarstva: italijanska Intesa Sanpaolo, grčka National Bank of Greece, mađarska OTP Bank i grčka Alpha bank (Tabela 5). Sve četiri investicije u sektor bankarstva spadaju u 20 najvećih investicija preduzetih u Srbiji u ovom periodu. Strane banke su ulazile na domaće tržište prvenstveno kroz privatizaciju domaćih banaka, privatizujući domaće banke u državnom vlasništvu, dok su domaće privatne banke kroz akviziciju pripajane stranim bankama. Tako je grčka National Bank of Greece privatizovala Vojvođansku banku, a grčka Alpha bank Jubanku, dok je italijanska banka Intesa Sanpaolo izvršila akviziciju domaće privatne Delta banke. Najveće investicije u bankarski sektor Srbije vršile su bankarske kompanije iz zemalja okruženja.

Izvor: NBS, 2012, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_06.xls, 29/07/2012.

Grafikon 3. Sektorska distribucija priliva stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiju, 2006

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century, i.e. from 2001 onwards (Graph 2). In the years to follow, with the exception of 2004, the role of foreign direct investments as a form of financing Serbian economy, substantially grew. In 2006, the inflow of foreign direct investments into Serbia reached 4.2 billion USD, which is a record value of inflow of foreign direct investments that Serbia had achieved by that date. During that year, Serbia was the country of the region of Central and Eastern Europe with the highest inflow of foreign direct investments, which was achieved through the privatization of Serbian company Mobi 63 by the Norwegian company Telenor. After that year, the inflow of foreign direct investments into Serbia recorded a four-year fall up to 2010, at the level of 1.3 billion USD, thereupon to experience a recovery in 2011 reaching 2.7 billion USD, although this was substantially below the average achieved in the period 2006-2008.

Financing of the Serbian economy through direct investments is mostly conducted by the investors from the European Union countries and countries of the region of the Central and Eastern Europe, but also from some more remote countries (USA, Russia, Japan, and Israel), where the significance of these countries varies in some of the years.

Foreign investment inflows have initially mainly financed trade. With the substantial growth in inflow of foreign direct investments into the country, after 2004, what started was their higher focus on the financial

sector. In 2005, the sector that was the most attractive for the foreign direct investments was financial intermediation (brokerage), which was the trend to be continued also in the years to come. In the period 2005 to 2008, the leading sector receiving foreign direct investments was financial intermediation, which was followed, in different order depending on the year, by the following: telecommunications, processing industry, real estate, and trade (NBS, 2012, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_11.xls, 29/07/2012).

In 2006, undoubtedly the largest recipient of the foreign direct investments in the country was financial intermediation, which received over 1/3 of the total inflow from foreign direct investments in the country (Graph 3). In this way the trend which was characteristic for the world trends in foreign direct investments

and that is its focus on the sector of services and within this sector on the financial services, was also present in the economy of Serbia. In 2011, financial activities and the insurance business were ranking third as the largest recipients of the foreign direct investments, after the trade and the processing industry (NBS, 2012, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_11.xls, 29/07/2012).

Graph 2. Inflow of foreign direct investments into Serbia

(Million USD)

Source: NBS, Internet, http://www.nbs.rs/internet/cirilica/80/platni_bilans.html, 19/07/2012; UNCTAD, 2011, World Investment Report 2011, New York and Geneva, p. 190, and UNCTAD, 2012, World Investment Report 2012, New York and Geneva, p. 172

Source: http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_o6.xls, 29/07/2012

Graph 3. Foreign direct investments inflow distribution per sectors in Serbia, 2006

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3Finansijski sektor, posebno sektor

bankarstva Srbije, najveće promene je pretrpeo u periodu 2001-2003. godine. Pre toga, težak period kroz koji je prošla Srbija u okviru bivše SFRJ i potom, SRJ, rezultirao je u nasleđenom bankarskom sistemu opterećenom brojnim problemima. Zaključno sa 2000. godinom, bankarski sektor Srbije je brojao ukupno 96 banaka (NBJ, 2000, str. 80). U periodu 2001-2003. godina, sa ukidanjem četiri velike banke (Beobanke, Beogradske banke, Investbanke i Jugobanke), kao i drugih banaka, došlo je do smanjenja ukupnog broja banaka u Srbiji za 50%. Time je svetski trend smanjenja ukupnog broja banaka karakterisao i bankarski sektor Srbije u periodu od 2000. godine. Promene koje su se dešavale u bankarskom sektoru Srbije uključivale su kupovine i spajanja banaka,

ukrupnjavanje kapitala banaka kao i ulazak stranih banaka na domaće bankarsko tržište.

Sa aktivnom politikom liberalizacije u pogledu uslova ulaska stranog kapitala u bankarski sektor Srbije, došlo je do značajnih priliva stranih direktnih investicija u bankarski sektor i povećanja banaka u stranom vlasništvu. Domaće banke su sve više bivale finansirane kapitalom banaka iz inostranstva. Broj banaka u većinskom stranom vlasništvu se sa 11 u 2004. godini povećao na 20 u 2009. godini, dok se učešće stranih banaka, u ukupnom bankarskom kapitalu Srbije, u istom periodu 2004-2009. godine, povećalo sa 19,7% (NBS, 2004, str. 98) na 73,1% (NBS, 2009, str. 63-64), čime dolazi do dominacije stranih banaka u bankarskom sektoru Srbije i visoke zavisnosti bankarskog sektora Srbije od stranih banaka.

Tabela 5. Najveći strani investitori u Srbiji, 2002-2009. godine(milioni EUR)

Kompanija Zemlja porekla Sektor Vrsta ulaganja Iznos

Telenor Norveška Telekomunkacije Privatizacija 1.602Gazprom Neft Rusija Naftna industrija Privatizacija 947Fiat Italija Auto industrija Zajed. ulaganje 700Philip Morris-DIN SAD Duvanska ind. Privatizacija 611Mobilkom Austria Group Austrija Telekomunikacije Grinfild 570Intesa Sanpaolo Italija Bankarstvo Akvizicija 508Plaza Centres Izrael Nekretnine Grinfild 500Stada-Hemofarm Nemačka Farmaceutska ind. Akvizicija 475Embassy Group Indija Nekretnine Grinfild 428Ab InBev Belgija Hrana i piće Akvizicija 427NBG Grčka Bankarstvo Privatizacija 425Biotech Energy SAD/Mađ. Naftna ind. Grinfild 380Mercator Slovenija Maloprodaja Grinfild 240Fondiaria SAI Italija Osiguranje Privatizacija 220Lukoil-Beopetrol Rusija Naftna industrija Privatizacija 210Airport City Belgrade Izrael Nekretnine Grinfild 200Blok 67 Associates Austrija/Srb. Nekretnine Grinfild 180Holcim-Novi Popovac Švajcarska Cement Privatizacija 170OTP Bank Mađarska Bankarstvo Privatizacija 166Alpha bank-Jubanka Grčka Bankarstvo Privatizacija 152Carlsberg Danska Hrana i piće Akvizicija 152U. S. Steel-Sartid SAD Prerada lima i čelika Braunfild 150Metro Cash&Carry Nemačka Veleprodaja Grinfild 150OMV Austrija Benzinske pumpe Grinfild 150Coca Cola SAD Bezalkoholna pića Akvizicija 142Lafarge Francuska Cement Privatizacija 141Africa Israel CORP. Tidhar Izrael Nekretnine Akvizicija 120Droga Kolinska Grand prom. Slovenija Prehrambena ind. Grinfild 100Cimos Slovenija Auto industrija Privatizacija 100JTI Japan Duvanska ind. Privatizacija 100

Izvor: baza podataka Agencije za strana ulaganja i promociju izvoza (SIEPA).

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Among the foreign companies that have undertaken the largest investments in Serbia, in the period 2002-2009, were the four ones from the banking sector: Italian Intesa Sanpaolo, Greek National Bank of Greece, Hungarian OTP Bank, and Greek Alpha Bank (Table 5). All of the four investments in the banking sector rank amongst the 20 largest investments made in Serbia in that period. Foreign banks were venturing on the domestic market primarily through the privatization of the domestic

banks, by privatizing domestic banks in the state-ownership, while the domestic private banks, through acquisition, were merged with the foreign banks. Hence the Greek National Bank of Greece privatized Vojvodjanska banka, and the Greek Alpha Bank privatized Jubanka, while the Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo made the acquisition of the domestic private bank Delta banka. The largest investments in the banking sector of Serbia were made by the banking companies from the countries in the region.

Table 5. The largest foreign investors in Serbia, 2002-2009 (Million EUR)

Company Country of origin Sector Type of

investment Amount

Telenor Norway Telecommunications Privatization 1.602Gazprom Neft Russia Oil industry Privatization 947Fiat Italy Car industry Joint venture 700Philip Morris-DIN USA Tobacco industry Privatization 611Mobilkom Austria Group Austria Telecommunications Green-field 570Intesa Sanpaolo Italy Banking Acquisition 508Plaza Centres Israel Real estate Green-field 500

Stada-Hemofarm Germany Pharmaceutical industry Acquisition 475

Embassy Group India Real estate Green-field 428Ab InBey Belgium Food and beverages Acquisition 427NBG Greece Banking Privatization 425Biotech Energy USA/Hungary Oil industry Green-field 380Mercator Slovenia Retail sale Green-field 240Fondiaria SAI Italy Insurance Privatization 220Lukoil-Beopetrol Russia Oil industry Privatization 210Airport City Belgrade Israel Real estate Green-field 200Blok 67 Associates Austria/Serbia Real estate Green-field 180Holcim-Novi Popovac Switzerland Cement Privatization 170OTP Bank Hungary Banking Privatization 166Alpha Bank-Jubanka Greece Banking Privatization 152Carlsberg Denmark Food and beverages Acquisition 152

US Steel-Sartid USA Steel mill and sheet metal processing Brown-field 150

Metro Cash&Carry Germany Wholesale trade Green-field 150OMV Austria Gas stations Green-field 150Coca Cola USA Soft drinks Acquisition 142Lafarge France Cement Privatization 141Africa Israel CORP. Tidhar Israel Real estate Acquisition 120Droga Kolinska Grand prom. Slovenia Foodstuffs industry Green-field 100

Cimos Slovenia Car industry Privatization 100JTI Japan Tobacco industry Privatization 100

Source: Database of the Foreign Investment and Export Promotion Agency (SIEPA)

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U periodu 2006-2007. godina (Grafikon 4), bankarske institucije u Srbiji, u stranom vlasništvu, upravljaju sa gotovo 80% bilansne sume bankarskog sektora, dok je državno vlasništvo znatno manje, na nivou od 15%, a domaće privatno vlasništvo još manje, na nivou od 10%. U narednom periodu, 2008-2010. godine, u vlasničkoj strukturi bankarskog sektora, udeo stranog vlasništva je opao na ispod 80%, ali şa prosečnim učešćem u bilansnoj sumi od 73% u ovom periodu strane banke i dalje dominantno upravljaju bankarskim sektorom Srbije.

Prema poslednjim podacima, zaključno sa prvim tromesečjem 2012. godine, u bankarskom sektoru Srbije posluju ukupno 33 banke (Tabela 6), od kojih je 21 banka u stranom vlasništvu. Uočava se preovlađujuća uloga stranih banaka u bankarskom sektoru Srbije, na koje otpada 74% ukupne aktive bankarskog sektora, 74% ukupnog kapitala i 70% svih zaposlenih (što je preko 20.500 radnika) u bankarskom sektoru Srbije.

Izvor: NBS, 2008, Izveštaj o stanju u finansijskom sistemu 2008, NBS, Beograd, 2008, str. 29, NBS, 2008, Godišnji izveštaj 2008, NBS, Beograd, 2008, str. 62, NBS, 2009, Godišnji izveštaj 2009, NBS, Beograd, 2009, str. 64 i NBS, 2010, Godišnji izveštaj o poslovanju i rezultatima rada 2010, NBS, Beograd, 2010, str. 55.

Grafikon 4. Vlasnička struktura bankarskog sektora Srbije, udeo u bilansnoj sumi, 2005-2008

(%)

Tabela 6. Odabrani pokazatelji bankarskog sektora Srbije, 2012

Broj banaka

Aktiva (%)

Kapital (%)

Zaposleni (%)

Banke u vlasništvu domaćih lica 12 26 26 30Banke u vlasništvu stranih lica Italija Austrija Grčka Francuska Ostali

2123439

742215151012

742218158

11

701413189

16Ukupno 33 100 100 100

Izvor: NBS, 2012, Bankarski sektor u Srbiji: Izveštaj za I tromesečje 2012. godine, jul 2012., str. 3.

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Financial sector and especially the banking sector of Serbia, experienced major changes in the period 2001-2003. Difficult period that Serbia had previously endured within the scope of the SFR of Yugoslavia and later on as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) resulted in an inherited banking sector burdened with numerous problems. Conclusive with 2000, banking sector of Serbia numbered a total of 96 banks (NBS, 2000, p. 80). In the period 2001-2003, with the closure of four large banks (Beobanka, Beogradska banka, Investbanka, and Jugobanka), and of some other banks, there was a reduction in the total number of banks in Serbia for 50%. Hence the world trend of reduction of the total number of banks was also characteristic for the banking sector of Serbia in the period starting with 2000. Changes that were taking place in the banking sector of Serbia included acquisition and merger of banks, enlargement of the banks capital and the advent of foreign banks on the domestic banking market.

Together with an active policy of liberalization regarding conditions for the entry of foreign capital in the banking sector of Serbia, there arrived a substantial inflow of foreign direct investments in the banking sector and a growth in the number of banks in foreign ownership. Domestic banks were increasingly being financed with the capital of foreign banks. The number of banks with the majority foreign ownership grew from 11 banks in 2004 to 20 in 2009, while the share of foreign banks in the total banking capital of Serbia, in that same period 2004-2009, increased from 19.7% (NBS, 2004, p. 98) to 73.1% (NBS, 2009, p. 63-64), thus causing supremacy of foreign banks in the banking sector of Serbia and high

dependency of the banking sector of Serbia on the foreign banks.

In the period 2006-2007 (Graph 4), banking institutions in Serbia in the foreign ownership, were managing with almost 80% the balance sheet sums of the banking sector, while the state ownership remained considerably lower at the level of 15%, and the domestic private ownership even less, at the level of 10%. In the period to follow, 2008-2010, the share of foreign ownership in the ownership structure of the banking sector fell below 80%, but with an average share in the balance sheet sum of 73%. In this period foreign banks still continued to hold a predominant position in the management of the banking sector of Serbia.

Source: NBS, 2008, Report on the situation in the financial system 2008, NBS, Belgrade, 2008, p. 29, NBS, 2008, Annual Report 2008, NBS, Belgrade, 2008, p. 62, NBS, 2009, Annual Report 2009, NBS, Belgrade, 2009, p. 64, and NBS, 2010, Annual Report on Operations and Work Results 2010, NBS, Belgrade, 2010, p. 55.

Graph 4. Ownership structure of the banking sector of Serbia, share in the balance sheet sum, 2005-2008

(%)

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Vlasnici banaka u stranom vlasništvu koje posluju na tržištu Srbije potiču iz 11 zemalja: Austrije, Belgije, Francuske, Grčke, Italije, Kipra, Mađarske, Nemačke, Ruske Federacije, SAD i Slovenije (Tabela 7). Među njima, najznačajnije banke u stranom vlasništvu, po učešću u ukupnoj aktivi bankarskog sektora Srbije, potiču iz Italije, Austrije, Grčke i Francuske (Tabela 6).

Zaključak

Strane direktne investicije predstavljaju veoma značajan oblik finansiranja globalne svetske privrede kao i nacionalnih privreda individualnih zemalja. Njihova uloga, kao oblika finansiranja svetske privrede, naročito je jačala u drugoj polovini dvadesetoga veka dok na početku dvadesetprvog veka one predstavljaju preovlađujući oblik finansiranja nacionalnih privreda zemalja u razvoju i zemalja u tranziciji. Prema prognozama budućeg kretanja tokova stranih direktnih investicija u svetu, može se očekivati da će strane direktne investicije, odnosno ovaj vid međunarodnog kretanja kapitala, i dalje biti veoma značajan kanal finansiranja svetske privrede.

Analiza u radu, na nivou globalne svetske privrede, pokazuje da je najveći deo svetskih tokova stranih direktnih investicija odlazio u sektor usluga, a u okviru njega najviše u finansijske usluge, u okviru kojih je naročito raslo investiranje u bankarski sektor. Savremeno bankarstvo karakteriše trend porasta priliva stranih direktnih investicija u bankarske sektore zemalja domaćina odnosno rasta učešća stranog

kapitala i filijala stranih banaka u bankarskim sektorima zemalja domaćina. Analiza strukture vlasništva bankarskog sektora zemalja Evropske unije, SAD i naročito zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope pokazala je da je pojačano finansiranje bankarskog sektora ovih zemalja prilivima stranih direktnih investicija dovelo do rasta učešća stranog kapitala u njihovim bankarskim sektorima, odnosno do porasta broja i uloge stranih banaka.

Analiza uloge i značaja stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja privrede Srbije pokazuje da je nakon niskih priliva ovog kapitala tokom devedesetih godina dvadesetoga veka, početkom dvadesetprvoga veka došlo do postepenog a potom i značajnog rasta finansiranja srpske privrede prilivima direktnih investicija iz inostranstva. U narednim godinama, uloga stranih direktnih investicija kao oblika finansiranja srpske privrede značajno se povećavala. Trend koji karakteriše svetske tokove stranih direktnih investicija, a to je njihova usmerenost u sektor usluga, a u okviru njega u finansijske usluge, prisutan je i u privredi Srbije. Finansijski sektor

je godinama vodeći, a u pojedinim godinama i najveći primalac direktnih investicija koje u privredu Srbije dolaze iz inostranstva, prvenstveno iz zemalja Evropske unije i zemalja neposrednog okruženja.

Značajne promene koje je u prvoj deceniji dvadesetprvog veka pretrpeo sektor bankarstva u Srbiji uključivale su smanjenje ukupnog broja banaka, kupovine i spajanja banaka, ukrupnjavanje kapitala banaka kao i ulazak stranih banaka na domaće bankarsko tržište. Politika liberalizacije na polju ulaska stranog kapitala u privredu Srbije, uključujući i bankarski sektor, rezultirala je u značajnim prilivima stranih direktnih investicija u privredu Srbiju i u okviru nje u bankarski sektor. Domaće, srpske, banke u velikoj meri

Tabela 7. Strane banke u Srbiji i zemlje porekla, 31.03.2012. godine

Zemlja porekla Banka

Austrija Erste BankHypo Alpe-Adria-BankRaiffeisen banka

Belgija KBC banka

Francuska Credit Agricole banka SrbijaFindomestic bankaSociete Generale banka Srbija

Grčka

Alpha BankEurobank EFGPiraeus BankVojvođanska banka

Italija Banca IntesaUnicredit Bank Srbija

Kipar Marfin BankMađarska OTP banka SrbijaNemačka ProCredit Bank

Ruska Federacija Moskovska bankaVolksbank

SAD Opportunity banka

Slovenija Credy bankaNLB banka

Izvor: NBS, 2012, Bankarski sektor u Srbiji: Izveštaj za I tromesečje 2012. godine, jul 2012., str. 35 i 36.

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According to the latest data, conclusive with the first quarter of 2012, there is a total of 33 banks (Table 6) operating in the banking sector of Serbia, 21 of them in foreign ownership. It may be noted that there is a prevailing role of foreign banks in the banking sector of Serbia covering 74% of the total banking sector assets, 74% of the total capital, and 70% of all the workforce employed (which counts over 20500 employees) in the banking sector of Serbia.

Foreign owners of banks operating on the Serbian market originate from 11 countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary, Germany, Russian Federation, USA, and Slovenia (Table 7). The most important amongst the banks in foreign ownership, according to the share in total assets of the banking sector of Serbia, are the ones from Italy, Austria, Greece and France (Table 6).

Table 6. Selected indicator of the banking sector of Serbia, 2012

Number of banks

Assets (%)

Capital(%)

Employees (%)

Banks in domestic ownership 12 26 26 30Banks in foreign ownership Italy Austria Greece France Other

2123439

742215151012

742218158

11

701413189

16Total 33 100 100 100

Source: MBS, 2012, Banking Sector in Serbia: Report for the 1st Quarter 2012, July 2012, p. 3.

Table 7. Foreign banks in Serbia and countries of origin, 31.03.2012

Country of origin Bank

AustriaErste BankHypo Alpe-Adria-BankRaiffeisen Bank

Belgium KBC Bank

France Credit Agricole banka SrbijaFindomestic BankSociete Generale banka Srbija

Greece

Alpha BankEurobank EFGPiraeus BankVojvođanska banka

Italy Banca IntesaUnicredit Bank Srbija

Cyprus Marfin BankHungary OTP banka SrbijaGermany ProCredit BankRussian Federation

Moskovska bankaVolksbank

USA Opportunity banka

Slovenia Credy bankaNLB banka

Source: NBS, 2012, Banking Sector in Serbia: Report for the 1st Quarter 2012, July 2012, p. 35 and 36.

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bivaju finansirane direktnim investicijama koje preduzimaju velike bankarske kompanije iz drugih zemalja. To je dovelo do porasta banaka u stranom vlasništvu, čiji se broj gotovo udvostručio, tako da one danas čine gotovo 2/3 ukupnog broja banaka na bankarskom tržištu Srbije. Drugi pokazatelji učešća stranih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi, ukupnom kapitalu i ukupnom broju zaposlenih bankarskog sektora Srbije, takođe, ukazuju na značaj priliva stranih direktnih investicija u bankarski sektor Srbije i rezultirajuću ulogu stranih banaka.

Može se zaključiti da bankarski sektor Srbije, u aktuelnom periodu, kao rezultat značajnih priliva stranih direktnih investicija, karakteriše dominacija stranih banaka i visoka zavisnost bankarskog sektora zemlje od banaka u stranom vlasništvu. Treba imati u vidu da ova preovlađujuća uloga stranih banaka, koje u velikoj meri kontrolišu bankarski sektor zemlje, nosi sa sobom sve prateće koristi ali i rizike koje dominacija podrazumeva.

Literatura / References

1. ECB, EU Banking Structure, razne godine (2005-2008), European Central Bank.

2. Kovač, Oskar. Platni bilans i međunarodne finansije. Beograd: CES MECON, 1994.

3. NBS, 2012, Bankarski sektor u Srbiji: Izveštaj za I tromesečje 2012. godine, jul 2012.

4. NBJ, 2000, Godišnji izveštaj 2000, NBJ, Beograd, 2000.

5. NBS, 2004, Godišnji izveštaj 2004, NBS, Beograd, 2004.



8. NBS, 2010, Godišnji izveštaj o poslovanju i rezultatima rada 2010, NBS, Beograd, 2010.

9. NBS, 2008, Izveštaj o stanju u finansijskom sistemu 2008, NBS, Beograd, 2008.

10. NBS, 2012, Internet, http://www.nbs.rs/internet/cirilica/80/platni_bilans.html, 19/07/2012;

11. NBS, 2012, Internet, http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/platni_bilans/fdi_delatnosti_11.xls, 29/07/2012.

12. OECD, 2008, Bank Profitability, Financial Statements of Banks 1996-2005, OECD.

13. Roxburgh, Charles, Lund, Susan and John Piotrowski. Mapping Global Capital Markets 2011. McKinsey Global Institute, August 2011.

14. UNCTAD database, Internet, http://unctad.org/Sections/dite_dir/docs/WIR11_web%20tab%2024.xls, 28/07/2012.

15. UNCTAD, 2007, World Investment Report 2007, UN, New York and Geneva.





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Conclusion

Foreign direct investments are a very significant form of financing global world economy and the national economies of individual countries. Their role, as a form of financing world economy, especially grew in the second half of the 20th century, while at the beginning of the 21st century they became the prevailing form of financing national economies of the developing countries and countries in transition. According to the projections for future flows of foreign direct investments in the world, it is to be expected that the foreign direct investments, i.e. this form of global capital movement, will still remain to be a very significant channel for financing world economy.

The analysis presented in this paper, at the level of global world economy, shows that the major part of the world flows of foreign direct investments was channeled in the sector of services, and there within mostly to the financial services where especially growth was observed in the investment into the banking sector. Modern banking is characteristic for growth trend in the inflow of foreign direct investments in the banking sector of the host country, i.e. growth in the share of foreign capital and affiliates of foreign banks in the banking sectors of the host countries. The analysis of the ownership structure of the banking sector in the countries of the European Union, USA, and especially countries of the South East Europe, shows that an intensified financing of the banking sector of these countries through the inflow of foreign direct investments brought about growth in the share of foreign capital in their respective banking sectors, i.e. caused the growth of the number and role of the foreign banks.

The analysis of the role and importance of foreign direct investments as a form of financing the economy of Serbia shows that after low inflows of this capital during the 1990s, by the beginning of the 21st century, there was firstly a gradual and then a substantial growth of inflows from foreign direct investments in financing of the Serbia economy. Over the subsequent years, the role of foreign direct investments as a form of financing Serbian economy was significantly

strengthened. The trend characteristic for the world flows of foreign direct investments, i.e. their focus on the sector of services and within this sector on financial services, was also present in the economy of Serbia. Financial sector has been for years the leading recipient of direct foreign investments, and in some years even the largest one, which were arriving in the economy of Serbia from abroad, primarily from the countries of the European Union and countries in close proximity.

Important changes experienced by the banking sector of Serbia in the first decade of the 21st century involved the reduction of the total number of banks, acquisitions and mergers of banks, enlargement of the banks capital, and the advent of foreign banks on the domestic banking market. Policy of liberalization in the field of venture of the foreign capital in the economy of Serbia, including its banking sector, resulted in significant inflow of foreign direct investments in the Serbian economy, and there within into the banking sector. Domestic Serbian banks to a great extend started being financed through foreign direct investments undertaken by the large banking companies from other countries. This caused the growth in the number of banks in foreign ownership, when their number almost doubled, so that to date they make up for almost 2/3 of the total number of banks on the banking market of Serbia. Other indicators of the share of foreign banks in the total assets, total capital and the total number of staff employed in the banking sector of Serbia, show how important is the inflow of foreign direct investments in the banking sector of Serbia and the resulting role of the foreign banks.

It may be concluded that the banking sector of Serbia, in the current period, as a result of substantial inflow of foreign direct investments, is characteristic for the prevalence of foreign banks and a high dependency of the banking sector of the country on banks in foreign ownership. It should be noted that this predominant role of foreign banks, which are greatly in control of the banking sector of the country, is carrying in itself all the complementary benefits but also risks which the dominance implies.

Documents

strane direktne investicije kao oblik finansiranja globalne ekonomije