Partners:

BrazilianMinistryofAgrarianDevelopmentICONE–Ins<tutefroInterna<onalTradeNego<a<onsWWF–BrazilChalmersUniversityofTechnology(Göteborg,Sweden)

UmbrellaProject:

AgriculturalLandUseandExpansionModel–Brazil,

AgLUE‐BR

gerdsparovek

gerd@usp.br

Sugarcaneintegra?ontootheragriculturalac?vi?es

Whatdoweknow?

Sugarcaneiscul<vatedclosetothemills!

Whatdoweknow?

Numbers:

# 370 mills (2007)

2007/08:

6.2 x 106 ha 483 x 106 Ton sugarcane

60% ethanol 40% sugar 22 x 109 L ethanol (20% export) 30 x 106 Ton sugar

Thepreciseloca<onofthefuture+5to10yearsmills!

Whatdoweknow?

Theimpactsofthelastsugarcaneexpansionseason(1996‐2006)

National Agricultural Census 96 and 06 Agricultural Production (Municipal) 96 to 07

Proxy variables for:

  Environment (forests)

  Food production (other crops)

  Development (Municipal GDP)

  LUCC (extensive beef and cattle production)

91%oftheanalyzedexpansionExpansion1996‐20064.8to6.1x106ha(1.3x106ha)

Food proxy Other crops

CEA

PEA-AM

PEA PEA-NoAM

CEA ScEx ScNoEx

Other crops area 20 19 % municipal area Other crops increase 2 2 % year-1

PEA-AM Other crops area 9 11 % municipal area Other crops increase 11 8 % year-1

PEA-NoAM Other crops area 4 10 % municipal area Other crops increase 2 2 % year-1

Extensive Land Use proxy Pastures and Cattle

CEA

PEA-AM

PEA PEA-NoAM

CEA ScEx ScNoEx

Pasture area 39 52 % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) -12 -9 % Cattle density 54 73 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase -2 0 % year-1

PEA Pasture area 34 37 % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) 3 1 % Cattle density 23 25 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase 2 3 % year-1

Whatdoweknow?

Thelastseason(1996‐2006)isspa<allycoincidentwithcurrentexpansion

Cane

Whatdoweknow?

Canewillexpand&interactonpastures.

Pasture

Newmills

Whatdoweconclude?

Themostimportantintegra<onsystemiswithlivestockproduc<on!

andthatit….

isurgent……

hastobelargescale…..

hastoadapttodifferentlivestockproduc?onsystems…..

willnotbeadoptedunderregularexpansionpaXerns….

Integra<on:fuel&food&localdevelopment

Polosdeproduçãodeenergia&alimento&cidadania

CommunityHubsforEnergyandFood(CHEF)

Bioenergyandfoodproduc?onforlocaldevelopmentinBrazil:Inputsforpolicy‐making

Integratedscenario

Millsareapoten?allowcostfeedproduc?onfacili?esCompletera?onforruminantsisanoldtechnology(backtothe1980s)widely

usedbeforeco‐genera?onbecomeanop?on

For15LmilkadayorBeefca`lefe`ering

*Produc?onusesmill’sprocesssteam(bioenergy)

Wintermaintenance(beeformilk)

Completera<oformilkorbeef Completera<onformaintanance

Hydrolyzed bagasse * Bagasse Yeast Residual sugars (Molasse) + Grain Minerals, vitamins

Hydrolyzed bagasse * Bagasse Yeast Stillage (vinasse) Filter cake + Minerals, vitamins

80%Pasture

20%Forest

20%Forest

30%Pasture

50%Otherlanduse

FoodSoy/biodiesel

Cane

Mill+Feed+Biodiesel

Ra?on

Original:extensive Integrated

sparoveketal.,2009 Petrobras(RJ)@180809

Feasibilitymodel:Mill

1milliontonscaneperyearon15,000ha

Ra?onproduc?oncapacity:40,000ton

20,000tonsforbeefcaXletermina?on–7,500animalsfor120days+15,000tonsformilkcaws–1,500animalsfor365days+5,000tonsmilkcawsmaintenance–1,750animalsfor90days

Investment(U$): 285,000

Supplies+Maintenance(U$/year): 1,900,000

Ra<onsellvalue(U$/ton): 62

25%profitmargin(U$/year): 495,000

Comparisonofbagassesellvalue(U$/ton):

Assumedinthera?ocalcula?on: 21

Currentvalueinco‐genera<on*: 8Bestscenarioforco‐genera?on*: 21

*Withoutinvestmentcostandtransmissionlines

Farmersperspec?ve:beforeandaiertheintegra<on

Type

Descrip<on Profit Area

Technology SizeBefore Aier Integrated/Cane

U$/hayear ha/ha

Extensive low Large 40 100 2.95

Stable high Large 130 220 2.01

Diverse Medium/high Medium 100 170 1.19

Special low Small 240 370 1.24

Strategic high Small 1050 1170 0.57

Thetwomarkedtypesarethemostcomumfarmsystemsinthesugarcaneexpansionregion

Agriculturalproduc<onvalue(2005)R$km‐2

Animalproduc<ononpasture(2005)AUkm‐2

AgriculturevsAnimalproduc?onparadox

Migra?onofcaXlefarming!

Animalproduc<ononpasture(2003)AUkm‐2

Whatdowegetwiththeintegra?on?

Forsure:

• Createaneconomicreasontopreventlivestockproduc<ontomove

• Keepalargerdiversityinland‐use• Don’tinterruptcurrenteconomicop<ons

• Increaseoutputoffoodproducts• ReduceGHGemissions

• Avoidlandpropertyconcentra<on• Re‐investregionally

Wemay(producingboth,biodieselandethanolinintegratedsystem):

• Reducethecostsofintegra<on• Increaseevenmoretheoutputanddiversityoffoodproducts

• ReduceevenmoreGHGemissionsusingbagassetoproduceBiodiesel

• Amplifytheopportuni<esforsmall‐holderssupplyoilseedcrops

• Intensifyoilseedcropproduc<ononlandmarginalforcane(moreintenselanduse)