www.advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/1/1/e1400039/DC1

Supplementary Materials for

Addressing China’s grand challenge of achieving food security while

ensuring environmental sustainability

Yonglong Lu,* Alan Jenkins,* Robert C. Ferrier, Mark Bailey, Iain J. Gordon, Shuai Song, Jikun Huang, Shaofeng Jia, Fusuo Zhang, Xuejun Liu, Zhaozhong Feng, Zhibin

Zhang

*Corresponding author. E-mail: yllu@rcees.ac.cn (Y.L.); jinx@ceh.ac.uk (A.J.)

Published 20 February 2015, Sci. Adv. 1, e1400039 (2015) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400039

This PDF file includes:

Fig. S1. The change in China’s urban and rural population (in millions) in 1980 to 2012. Fig. S2. The change in China’s annual population growth rate (percentage) in 1970 to 2030. Fig. S3. The increase in China’s real GDP since 1950 and the predicted continued increase to 2020. Fig. S4. Per capita food consumption (kilogram per person) in China since 1980. Fig. S5. Water availability index for China. Fig. S6. Surface water pollution and grain yield in 2010. Fig. S7. The increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions in China since 1980. Fig. S8. Governmental departments influencing food security. Table S1. Aggregate wheat production loss (WPL) in the years 2000 and 2020 estimated by O3 dose metrics [AOT40 (ppb.h), accumulated hourly ozone concentration over 40 ppb] for the top five wheat-producing provinces in China as well as for all of China.

Supporting Information:

Addressing China’s Grand Challenge of Achieving Food Security Whilst

Ensuring Environmental Sustainability

Yonglong Lu a *, Alan Jenkins

b*, Bob Ferrier

c, Mark Bailey

b, Iain Gordonc, Shuai Song

a, Jikun

Huangd, Shaofeng Jia

d, Fusuo Zhang

e, Xuejun Liu

e, Zhaozhong Feng

a, Zhibin Zhang

f

a State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-

Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China bCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK

cThe James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK

d Institute of Geography and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

Beijing 100101, China e College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University,

Beijing 100193, China f State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in

Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,

China

*corresponding author: yllu@rcees.ac.cn; jinx@ceh.ac.uk

Methods

Integrative approach. In this paper, an integrative approach was used to consider food production

as part of an environmental system (soil, air, water, biodiversity) and not independent from it. The

major viewpoints were discussed at the “Joint UK-China Summit on Food Production and

Environmental Sustainability” held in Beijing on 5-6 March 2014, with 40 leading scientists,

administrators and business people from UK and China participated. Valuable comments were also

provided by the representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Environmental

Protection, State Council Development Research Centre and other relevant ministries and

organizations.

Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS Statistics V20.0 (SPSS Inc. Quarry Bay, HK).

Multiple regressions were used to determine the increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions

in China since 1980. Spatial distributions of water resources, water pollution and grain yield were

performed with the Arcmap module in ArcGIS V10.0 software (ESRI, Redland, CA).Social network

analysis was made of the relationships among the relevant governing bodies for ensuring food

security.

Dataset. Data were collected from the following sources: (1) a number of national and provincial

statistical databases, including “China Statistical Yearbook,” “China Water Resources Bulletin”,

“China Agricultural Statistical Yearbook,” and “China Environmental Status Bulletin” ; (2) national

or provincial environmental quality standards or survey reports such as Environmental Quality

Standards for Surface Water, and Environmental Quality Report; and (3) the existing research results

and methodologies described in respective tables or figures.

Figure S1. The change in China’s urban and rural population (in millions) in 1980-2012

Source: NSBC (National Statistical Bureau of China), 2013. China Statistical Yearbook 2013. China

Statistics Press, Beijing.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Urban Rural

Figure S2. The change in China’s annual population growth rate (percentage) in 1970-2030

Sources: data before 2010 are from NSBC (2013) and data in 2020 and 2030 are estimated by

authors. NSBC (National Statistical Bureau of China), 2013. China Statistical Yearbook 2013. China

Statistics Press, Beijing.

Figure S3. The increase in China’s real GDP since 1950 and the predicted continued increase

to 2020.

The growth was steady until 1980 and increased rapidly to 2010 with a predicted further

doubling by 2020. Both GDP and per capita GDP are normalized to 100 in 1978.

Sources: data before 2010 from NSBC (2009, 2013) and data thereafter are estimated by authors.

NSBC (National Statistical Bureau of China), 2009. China Compendium of Statistics 1949-2008.

China Statistics Press, Beijing.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

GDP/Capita

GDP

Figure S4. Per capita food consumption (kg/person) in China since 1980. This shows a

significant fall in food grain but significant increase in non-food grain since 1990.

Source: CAPSiM database, 2013. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chiense Academy of Sciences.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rice

Wheat

Other

grains

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fruits

Red meat

& poultry

Milk

Fish

Edible

oil

Figure S5. Water availability index for China. Stressed areas (orange and yellow) are mainly

under pressure from agricultural use.

Note: Here water security index is scored between 0 and 100 according to water demand satisfaction

ratio for different water uses. A score higher than 90 means very secure, 80-89.9 means secure, 70-

79.9 means relatively secure, 60-69.9 means relatively not secure, while score lower than 60 very

unsecure.

Sources: Water demand and supply data, water resources change data：Water Resources and

Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute，Ministry of Water Resources. Comprehensive

Water Resources Planning of China, 2009.

Water Quality data: Ministry of Environmental Protection, Report on the State of Environment in

China, 2010, 2011, 2012;

Ministry of Water Resources, Water Resources Bulletin of China, 2010, 2011, 2012.

Figure S6. Surface water pollution and grain yield in 2010

Sources: Distribution of water quality (1) and grain yield (2) in 2010. Water quality classification

based on the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (1, 3)

1. Water Resources Bulletin for Haihe River Basin

(http://www.hwcc.gov.cn/pub/hwcc/static/szygb/gongbao2010/main4.htm);

Yellow River Basin (http://www.yellowriver.gov.cn/other/hhgb/) ;

Songliao River Basin (http://www.slwr.gov.cn/szy2011/);

Huai River Basin(http://www.hrc.gov.cn/detail?model=00000000000000006575&documentid=41221);

Yangtze River Basin(http://www.cjw.com.cn/zwzc/bmgb/szygb/); and

Pearl River Basin(http://www.pearlwater.gov.cn/xxcx/szygg/).

2. National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China

http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01

3. Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water.

http://english.mep.gov.cn/SOE/soechina1997/water/standard.htm

Year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

NH

3 o

r N

Ox e

mis

sio

n (

Tg

N y

r-1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

NH

3-N

/NO

x-N

0

1

2

3

4

5NH3

NOx-N

NH3-N/NOx-N

Figure S7. The increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions in China since 1980

Source: Data adapted from Liu et al., 2013. Nature 494, 459-462.

Table S1. Aggregate wheat production loss (WPL) in the year 2000 and 2020 estimated by O3 dose metrics (AOT40 (ppb.h), accumulated hourly ozone concentration over 40 ppb) for the top five wheat producing provinces in China as well as for whole China . The relative yield loss (RYL) is shown in parentheses (data were extracted from Tang et al., 2013).

Province WPL (104 metric tons) and

RYL (%) in 2000

Increases of WPL (104 metric tons)

and RYL (%) from 2000 to 2020

Henan 185.1 (7.5%) 262.2 (10.6%)

Shandong 151.2(6.7%) 173.5 (7.6%)

Hebei 100.3(7.3%) 70.1 (5.1%)

Jiangsu 138.5(11.5%) 118.8 (9.8%)

Anhui 74.0 (8.0%) 110.2 (11.9%)

Whole China 777.9 (6.4%) 1016.3 (8.4%)

y=0.315x-619.21

(n=31; p<0.001)

y=7.000×10-49e0.0561x

(n=31; p<0.001)

y= -0.0709x+144.6

(n=31; p<0.001)

Figure S8. Governmental departments influencing food security

Acknowledgement

This paper represents a synthesis of the information reviewed and recommendations made at a series of workshops with different stakeholders held in Beijing in November 2013, and a “Joint UK-China Summit on Food Production and Environmental Sustainability” held in Beijing on the 5th and 6th of March 2014. The authors appreciate support from the UK Science and Innovation Network as part of the ‘Food Production and Environmental Sustainability in China’ project (GPF 13-108), the National Natural Science Foundation of China for grant (No. 41371488), and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China for International Scientific Cooperation Project (No. 2012DFA91150). We acknowledge the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) and the Natural Environment Research Council for continued support. We are grateful to David Fowler, Ian Toth, Keping Ma, Zhenhui Xie, Andy Sweetman, Jianbo Shen, Rongfeng Jiang, Hong Li, Peili Wu,Tim Daniel, Ben Piper, Tianzhi Ren, Erda Lin, Xiaoke Wang, Enzhu Hu, Hui Ju, Hong Zhang, Xifeng Gong for their participation in discussions, and to Lucia Sellars, Jingjing Yuan, Ruoshi Wang, Jing Meng, Yuan Li, Yueqing Zhang for workshop assistance. We would also like to thank the editors and reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

References

CAPSiM database, 2013. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water.

http://english.mep.gov.cn/SOE/soechina1997/water/standard.htm

Liu, X. J.,Y. Zhang, W. X. Han, A. H. Tang, J. L. Shen, Z. L. Cui, P. Vitousek, J. W. Erisman, K. Goulding,

P. Christie, A. Fangmeier, F. S. Zhang, Enhanced nitrogen deposition over China. Nature (494), 459-

462 (2013).

Ministry of Environmental Protection, Report on the State of Environment in China, 2010- 2012.

Ministry of Water Resources, Water Resources Bulletin of China, 2010- 2012.

NSBC (National Statistical Bureau of China), 2009. China Compendium of Statistics 1949-2008.

China Statistics Press, Beijing.

National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China

http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01

NSBC (National Statistical Bureau of China), 2013. China Statistical Yearbook 2013. China Statistics

Press, Beijing.

Tang, H., M. Takigawa, G. Liu, J. Zhu, K. Kobayashi, A projection of ozone-induced wheat production

loss in China and India for the years 2000 and 2020 with exposure-based and flux-based approaches.

Global Change Biology 19, 2739-2752 (2013).

Water Resources Bulletin for Haihe River Basin

(http://www.hwcc.gov.cn/pub/hwcc/static/szygb/gongbao2010/main4.htm);

Yellow River Basin (http://www.yellowriver.gov.cn/other/hhgb/) ;

Songliao River Basin (http://www.slwr.gov.cn/szy2011/);

Huai River Basin(http://www.hrc.gov.cn/detail?model=00000000000000006575&documentid=41221);

Yangtze River Basin(http://www.cjw.com.cn/zwzc/bmgb/szygb/); and

Pearl River Basin(http://www.pearlwater.gov.cn/xxcx/szygg/).

Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute，Ministry of Water

Resources. Comprehensive Water Resources Planning of China, 2009.