Microsoft PowerPoint - Technology Foresight-B_Park_20071021
Technology Foresight for S&T Priority Setting and Innovation Policy-General Overview-
2007. 10. 22
Byeongwon [email protected]/+82-2-589-2931
Past and FuturePast and Future--what used to bewhat used to be--What might beWhat might be
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What used to be (1)
Iraq was where once a civilization had started. In 1840, when the Industrial Revolution just started, China and India had 40%
share of the world trades. In 1935, GDP per capita of Japan did not differ much with those of Mexico and
Brazil. In 1938, Philippines had highest GDP per capita in Asia. In 1944, the first computer was 200 times more expensive than present
computer. The modern computer is 50,000 times more powerful. In 1948, Taiwanese GDP per capita was less than a half of Mexicos. Now it is
more than four times bigger. In 1954, according to World Bank, Miyama (once Burma) had brightest
economic prospect in Asia
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What used to be (2)
Until 1960, Switzerland of Middle East was Lebanon and Switzerland of Africa was Uganda.
In 1960, Made in Japan meant low-quality cheap product. However, nowadays one Japanese people produces five times larger wealth than Latin American does.
In year 1999, total assets of Bill Gates was larger than annual production of Israel, Malaysia and Chile . It was even bigger than those of 141 countries in the world.
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What used to be (3)
In 1954, a man had to work 563 hours to buy a TV. In 1971, it was 174 hours and was less than 24 hours in 1997
The dominant alphabet nowadays has no more 26 characters. It has only two, 0 and 1 Human kind has lived for 1.8 million years on Earth. However it was just 18,000 years
ago that human started planned economy.. Among 200 thousands plants, just 12 are occupying 80 % of whole production The generic difference between humans is less than 0.0003% In 1974, Monsanto predicted that it would cost 0.15 billion$ to decipher one genome
sequence. However, it decreased to just less than 150 US$ and 50 US$ in 2000.
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World Wealth ChangeAD1500-AD2015
AD 1500
AD 1960
AD 1990
AD 2015
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/index.html
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Scientific Activities
R&D Spending @2002 Patent @2002
SCI paper @2001 SCI paper Growth 1990-2001
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What Future will be(1)
Population Ageing World population
8.9 billion in 2050Median age increase from 26 to 37 by Year 2050
Korean PopulationYear 2020 maximum of 49 million. Year 2050 : decrease to 42 million
* Year 2000 : The old over 65 = 7%Year 2019, 14%(takes 18 years) Year 2026, 20%( takes 7 years)
Japan: Year 1970 7%Year 1994, 14%(takes 24 years) Year 2006 20%(takes 12 years)
Taiwan Population Fertility rate: 1.12 children
born/woman (2007 est.) 65 yrs over 9.6% (CIA World
Factbook, 2006 est.)
Population projection to 2051 for Taiwan
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What Future will be(2)
Energy and Resources
World Energy Demand increase 54% by Year 2025 It requires about $16 trillion new investment by Year 2030Some 1.6 billion people have no access to electricitySome 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomassRenewable energy share is less than 10% by 202540% of world energy still depends on oil
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What Future will be(3)
Climate change and natural disasters
The Cumulative volume of green house gases produced by fossil fuel consumption over next 50 years could more than double the output during last 50 yearsThree of last five yeas were hottest in recorded historyGlacier is receding worldwideMore than 1 million species is about to be extinct by 2050Half the world forest and 25% of the coral reefs are gone
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What Future will be(4)
Clean water crisis By 2050, more 2 billion people will be in
water-scarce area 1.1 billion people do not have access
to safe drinking water 2.2 billion people lack adequate
sanitation About 80% of all diseases in the
developing country will be water-related Water for agriculture needs to
increase 60% to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2030
About 40% of humanity lives in the 260 major international water basin shared by more than two countries
More than 3,000 fresh water species are listed as threatened, endangered or extinct
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Future Society
2050 Washington DC in the movie Minority Report
Oceania-floating island
TallestBuilding
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Why do we have to think about Futures?
Everyday life would be impossible without it History is made, not given Need for direction Influencing the agenda Shortcoming of reaction Purpose of forecasting Our responsibility to future generations
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Four Generic Alternative Futures*
Continued GrowthContinued Growth CollapseCollapse
Disciplined SocietyDisciplined Society Transformational SocietyTransformational Society
Whats next?Continued Growth?
Jim Dator
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Four Generic Alternative Futures*
Continued GrowthContinued Growth CollapseCollapse
Disciplined SocietyDisciplined Society Transformational SocietyTransformational Society
- Whats next? Continued Growth?
- No future research- Most people think about
this scenario
Jim Dator
- Energy, Environment etc.- We cant grow forever.
Has to slow down- Oblivion of human kind
- Sustainable societyfind better way to sustain in steady state
Go back to agricultural society
- Many futurist think
New way to processNew technology
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Big waves of societal change
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The Historical S, T & A Co-evolution Process Perspective
Early History 17thCentury
IndustrialRevolution
1900s Now Time
Rapid Change
New Competencies
New Value Basis
Service
Sustainability
Extended Enterprises
New Players
Globalization
SCIENCE
Energy
Commerce &Crafts
Agriculture
KnowledgeandTelecomIndustries
Knowledge
TECHNOLOGY
APPLICATI
ONS
Future?
Specialization/Co-evolutionConvergence/Divergence
Manufacturing,Chemical &TransportationIndustries
PopulationLand
Materials
NBIC
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Three COMPONENTS of the Futures
- Things that have always existed- Existed in pasts & Present, so in futures
- Not in present, but in past, so in futures- OR big in present, not past, not futures
- Never before experienced by humans- Not in past or present, will in futures
1. Continuations1. 1. Continuations
2. Cycles2. 2. Cycles
3. Novelties3. 3. Novelties
Future Technologies
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Diners club card Levittown The Pill Thorazine The conglomerate Holiday inn Fortran Polio vaccine Fast food Containerized food Disk drive Fiber optics Ampex VRX-1000 Implantable pace maker Laser Three-point seat belt Integrated circuits
Radar Electronic digital computer
Nuclear power Cellular phone Microwave oven Instant photos Transistor Tupperware LP Magnetic core memory
Jet engine Frequency modulation Wallboard Value investing Nylon United auto worker Blood bank Pulse-code modulation Xerography Automatic transmission
Helicopter
Sneakers Mass spectrometer Tetraethyl Lead Business management
Multiphase camera Frozen food Mutual fund Bell telephone lab. Rocket engine Television Penicillin Synthetic rubber
1950194019301910-1920
Revolutionary Inventions that changed 20 century
[source : Forbes 2002.12]
Flying car (1926) Videophones (1931) Faxed newspapers(1940) 3-D movies (1953) Nuclear bombs as steam shovels(1957) Unlimited solar power from space(1968) Interactive television (1977)
Inventions that almost changed the world
World wide web Protease inhibitors Internet business Viagra Automated sequencing machine
Liquid crystal display
Customized mass retail
Mevacor Prozac
Compact disc Relational database Answering machine Microprocessor Computed tomography Ethernet UNIX/C programming E-entertainment Discount brokerage Catalytic converter Index fund Personal computer chip Recombinant DNA Cash management accounts
Original-issue junk bonds Spread sheet
Pampers Telstar Modem Point-of-sales data Mainframe family Consumerism Mouse Automated teller machine
Charge-coupled device
The internet
1990-2000198019701960
[source :Forbes Dec. 23, 2002]
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10 Emerging Technologies that will change our world
http://www.technologyreview.com
1. Universal Translation2. Synthetic Biology3. Nanowires4. Bayesian Machine
Learning5. T-Rays6. Distributed Storage7. RNA Interference8. Power Grid Control 9. Microfluidic Optical
Fibers10.Personal Genomics
20041. Airborne Networks2. Quantum wires3. Silicon Photonics4. Metabolomics5. Magnetic-resonance Force
Microscopy6. Universal Memory7. Bacterial Factories8. Enviromatics9. Cell-phone Viruses10.Biomechatronics
1. Wireless Sensor Networks
2. Injectable Tissue Engineering
3. Nano Solar Cells4. Mechatronics5. Grid Computing6. Molecular Imaging7. Nanoimprint Lithography8. Software Assurance9. Glycomics10.Quantum Cryptography
