The 2050 energy transition towards a Beautiful ChinaThinks for 2050 Cina Energy

Transition on Objectives and Road Map

Prof. WANG Zhongying

Acting Deputy Director General, Energy Research Institute of NDRC

Director, China National Renewable Energy Centre

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%

国内生产总值增速（%） 煤炭消费量增速（%）

十八大以来

Coal to GDP

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%

国内生产总值增速（%） 一次能源消费总量增速（%）

十八大以来

Primary Energy to GDP

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

国内生产总值增速（%） 全社会用电量增速（%）

改革开放以前 改革开放以来

十八大以来

Electricity to GDP

Coal, Oil, Primary to GDP

2017 Energy flow

Dominated by fossil fuelsCoal consumption in power sector and industry sectorBig losses in energy transformation, especially in the power sectorOil dominates in the transport sector

What are the issues for China energy transition?

• Coal transition: coal jobs, coal economic and region economic

• Oil transition: same to the coal• Gas: may be the new coal and new oil?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

非化石能源

天然气

石油

煤炭

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50能源消费总量

增速

亿吨标准煤 %

数据来源：中国能源统计年鉴

Social and Economic Sustainable Development Need to Change the Energy Mix from High Carbon to Low Carbon

Fossil Energy DominatedEnergy System

Economic Growth Eco-Environment

Green and Low Carbon Energy System

Eco-Civilization Society

Modern Economic System

Economic high quality development — Energy transition — Ecological environment — Economic high quality development

A.

B.

E.

Low carbon development road map：

“Industry electrificationSector intelectualizationElectricity greenlization”

Economictransition

Energytransition

Transition to

electricity

Industrytransition

Sectortransition

How make the virtuous cycle development?

China RE Outlook 2018

Annual publication from CNREC

- Status for RE development in

China

- Scenarios for China energy

system development until 2050

- Energy policy research

- Policy strategy

recommendations

1299

2035 Energy flow chart Stated policies（Mtce）

1694

Coal

Natural Gas 622

NuclearHydroWindSolarBio

GeothermalOcean

274

Oil 1240

Agriculture81

230.38

400.05

18

295

Industry1552

295322

1319

670108

3293

Construction83

111

311

39

Transport718

320.07

828

391204

Buildings846

67101

3533

399192

18Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Electricity

HeatLosses

Oil Products 372

199

402

277

266

204

322

101

670

399

108

192

Losses

1346

Electricity1233

51

456

82

Heat 301

391

93

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar Geothermal

Hydrogen

Ocean

Bio

Biofuel blends

396

Biofuel blends 391

1104

2035 Energy flow chart Below 2°C（Mtce）

1495

Coal

Natural Gas 334

NuclearHydroWindSolarBio

GeothermalOcean

274

Oil 908

Agriculture81

230.38

400.05

18

291

Industry1524

291204

2820

706958891

Construction83

111

311

39

Transport602

110.0713119

237204

Buildings844

66814542

402192

15Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Electricity

HeatLosses

Oil Products 367199

634

379

259

204

204

81

706

402

95

192

Losses

1178

Electricity1311

72

297

131

Heat 28888

237

91

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar Geothermal

Hydrogen

Ocean

Bio

Biofuel blends

391

Hydrogen 107

Biofuel blends 237

2035 Stated Policy

2035 Below 2 °C Scenario

660

2050 Energy flow chart Stated policies（Mtce）

847Coal

Natural Gas

366

NuclearHydroWindSolarBio

GeothermalOcean

341

Oil 765

Agriculture83

181

540.05

10

Industry1226

156176

2320

650105

4451

Construction79

111

421

24

Transport692

300.07210

31224198

Buildings828

2616317

439236

11Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Electricity

HeatLosses

Oil Products 294225

732

418

254

198

176

650

439

105

236

Losses

945

Electricity1395

119

269

210

Heat 342

187

224

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar Geothermal

Hydrogen

Ocean

Bio

Biofuel blends

Biofuel blends 224Hydrogen 75

357

2050 Energy flow chart Below 2°C（Mtce）

445Coal

Natural Gas

159

NuclearHydroWindSolarBio

GeothermalOcean

341

Oil 606

Agriculture83

181

540.05

10

Industry1177

55107

5220

70580

10054

Construction79

111

421

24

Transport646

50.07231

63150198

Buildings820

1228523

449236

4Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Electricity

HeatLosses

Oil Products 290

225

935

570

273

198

107

705

449

236

Losses

756

Electricity1481

144

136

231

Heat 317

88

100

150

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar Geothermal

Hydrogen

Ocean

Bio

Biofuel blends

Biofuel blends 150Hydrogen 163

2050 Stated Policy

2050 Below 2 °C Scenario

Final Energy2831Mtce

High Penitration

Electrification15324Twh and

53%

Wind and Solar

2664GW and 2836GW

RE Power Generation

88%

Primary Energy

Consummption3483Mtce

The Below 2 °C: 3483Mtce

The Stated Policy: 3724Mtce

The Below 2 °C

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bill

ion

tce

Bill

ion

kW

2017 2020 2030 2035 2045

Wind and Solar Installed Power Capacity

(Below 2 °C Scenario)

Total Coal Consumption

Wind: 1600

Solar: 130

Wind: 1220

Solar: 1450

Wind: 1830

Wind: 2500

Wind: 2660

Solar: 2000

Solar: 2750

Solar: 2840

Power System Revolution: Wind power and solar power as the backbone

Power system balancing: flexibility is the main key

Demand side measures• Peak load shaving• Industrial load shifting• EV smart charging• EV charging• Storage loading• Electricity to heat

Supply side measures• Flexible thermal power plants• Flexible hydro• Storage discharging• Market value based VRE

remuneration incentives

Thank you for your attention

スライド番号 1スライド番号 2スライド番号 3Electricity to GDPスライド番号 52017 �Energy flowスライド番号 7スライド番号 8スライド番号 9China RE Outlook 2018スライド番号 11スライド番号 12スライド番号 13スライド番号 14Power system balancing: flexibility is the main keyスライド番号 16