The Battle for Tikrit Enters Its Final Hour

4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor

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The Battle for Tikrit Enters its Final HourAnalysis MARCH25,2015|18:43GMT Print TextSize

Summary

Editor'sNote:ThefollowingreportconsolidatessomeofStratfor'smostrecentanalysesontheTikritoffensive,updatedinreversechronologicalorder.Foranoverviewoftheoffensiveitself,readourfoundationalanalysisthebattleforTikritrevealsdeepertruths.

SmokebillowsoverTikritastheoffensivetoretakethecityfromIslamicStatefightersentersitsfinalstages,March30.(AHMADALRUBAYE/AFP/GettyImages)

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Analysis

March 26 - March 31

AlthoughaMarch31announcementbyIraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadithatTikritisrecapturedmayprovepremature,itappearsthattheoperationisinitsfinalstagesandthatBaghdadhasenoughcombatpowertocompletethepainstakingclearanceofIslamicStatefightersfromthecity.

DespitesomesuccessoflimitedbombingmissionsagainstfixedIslamicStatepositionscarriedoutbyU.S.aircraftoverTikrit,WesterninvolvementprovedunpopularwithShiitemilitiascontributingtotheoffensive.FollowingtheannouncementofWashington'sparticipationattheinvitationoftheIraqigovernment,anumberofShiitemilitiasincludingtheHezbollahBrigadessaidtheyweresuspendingoperations.DespiteindignationfromtheShiitemilitiacamp,theairsupportcameatacrucialtimeforthestalledoffensive.Cutoff,duginanddesperate,theremainingIslamicStatefightersinTikrithadsaturatedeveryapproachroutewithimprovisedexplosivedevicesandsniperfire.Hopingtoexactaseveretollontheattackingforces,Tikrit'slastdefenderssucceededinbluntingtheinitiallysuccessfulthrusttoclearthecityandsurroundingareas.

AswellaspinpointingtheremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,theairstrikescoordinatedthroughtheJoint



OperationCenterinBaghdademployedadvancedprecisionguidedmunitionstoreducetheriskofnoncombatantcasualties.Precisionlethalityisanimportantfactor,especiallyconsideringthatIslamicStatepositionsareinplacessuchasSaddamHussein'spalacecomplex,wellconstructedandeasilydefendable.AlAbadi'sMarch26visittoTikritmayhavebeenanattempttoencouragedespondentmilitiastocontinuetheirparticipation.OnMarch27aspokesmanforthePopularCrowdmilitiarepeatedthestatementthatthegroupisastateinstitutionand,assuch,subjecttotheorderofIraqi'sprimeminister.

Washington'sinvolvementinanattackintendedtobeledbyIraqisecurityforces(supportedbyIranianadvisorsandsecularmilitias)hasangeredsome,thinningtheranksofanalreadydepletedforce.Yet,theapparentlylimiteddurationoftheairstrikesofferstheShiitemilitiasawaybackin.AsofMarch30onlyonepieceofordnancehadbeendroppedfromaU.S.aircraft,leadingsomegroupstoconsiderrejoiningtheoffensive.Whilethecompleteclearanceofthecitymayyettakedays,itseemsasthoughvictoryisallbutassuredforBaghdadinitsendeavortofreeTikritfromtheIslamicState.

March 25

U.S.ledcoalitionaircrafthavecarriedoutoffensiveoperationsagainstIslamicStatepositionsincentralTikritundercoverofdarkness.AseniorU.S.officialsaidthattheIraqigovernmentinBaghdadhadspecificallyrequestedU.S.airpowertoreignitethestalledoffensivetouproottheremainingIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit.TheU.S.AirForcebegansurveillancemissionsoverTikritfromMarch20,buthadavoidedflyingcombatmissionsinlocationswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiaswereoperating.Thisisnownolongerthecase.

ItislikelythatintelligencecollectedfromreconnaissanceflightsidentifiedknownIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit,whichU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftcanstrikewithprecision.U.S.forceswillhavelittlechoicebuttoincreasethelevelofcooperationwithIranianelementsinIraqastheyoperateincloserproximity.AlthoughtheinvolvementofthecoalitionwillinvigoratethestalledassaultonremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,theUnitedStatescouldbecriticizedforprovidingperceiveddirectassistancetosectarianShiiteforcesontheground.

Althoughtheairstrikescouldbelimitedinscope,engaginghighvaluetargetsinthecity,theyarelikelytheopeningstagesofabroaderairoffensiveinsupportofthesecurityforcesamassedroundTikrit.AnydisagreementbetweenBaghdad'sandTehran'sforcesonthegroundoverwhetherdirectU.S.supportisrequiredcouldunderminethecohesionbetweenIraqisecurityforcesandIranianandShiiteelements.IfthecooperationbetweentheU.S.ledcoalition,BaghdadandTehranworks,however,itcouldbecomeaforcecompositionmodelforoperationsagainstIslamicStateforceselsewhereinIraqandSyria.

March 19-24

ProgressinthebattleforTikritremainsstagnantastheoperationentersitsfourthweek.IslamicStatesfightersareholedupinthecenterofthecity,resistingattemptstodisplacethem.TheIraqisecurityforcessupportedbyIranianadvisers,ShiitemilitiasandsomeSunnitribalfightershavesustainedsignificantcasualtiesduringattemptstopenetrateandcleartheIslamicStatepositions.Mostlyoralmostcompletelycutofffromtheirsupplylines,theIslamicStateelementsinTikritarerelyingonstockpiledammunitionandsupplies,andtheyhavesurroundedthemselvesbyaringofimprovisedexplosivedevices.

TheU.S.ledcoalition'saircampaigncontinuestoengageIslamicStatepositionsinIraq,butsofar,ithasavoidedareaswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiasareoperating,namelySalahuddinandDiyalaprovinces.ThisislargelybecauseofthepoliticaldynamicbetweenTehranandWashington.Anotherreason



isthatIranissupportingIraqisecurityforcesinTikritwhiletheUnitedStateshasagreedtosupporttheoffensivetoretakeMosul,abiggerandmorecomplexoperation.However,recentreportingindicatesthatelementsoftheIraqiarmyaredissatisfiedwiththestalledoffensiveinTikritandfeelthatU.S.ledcloseairsupportwithprecisionguidedweaponsisthekeytouprootingtheremainingIslamicStatefightersinthecity'scenter.

ThecallforsuchamovewasstronglyopposedbyHadialAmeri,theheadoftheBadrOrganization,thesuccessortotheBadrBrigades.AlAmeriisveryclosetothecommanderoftheoverseasoperationsarmoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorps,Maj.Gen.QassemSuleimani.Iran'sQudsforcehasbeenheavilyinvolvedinfightingagainsttheIslamicStateinIraq,andSuleimanihaspersonallyadoptedacoordinatingroleontheground.TehranhasbeenquietaboutthesuggestionofU.S.ledaircraftflyingmissionsintheTikritoperation.Likewise,itcommentedlittlewhentheU.S.AirForcesaidithasbeenconductingreconnaissanceflightsoverTikritsinceMarch21andissupplyingIraqisecurityforceswithintelligence.

ItremainstobeseenwhethertheIraqiarmywillofficiallyrequestcloseairsupportfromtheU.S.ledcoalition,andevenifitdoes,whetherWashingtonwillagreetoprovideit.IfcoalitionairstrikesdotargetTikrit,however,importantquestionsariseoverhowtheUnitedStatesandIransharethesamebattlespace.WeretheUnitedStatestobeginaircombatmissionsagainstIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit,itwouldhavetocoordinatecarefullywithIranatthemilitaryandpoliticallevels,andseriousdeconflictionwouldhavetotakeplaceontheground,especiallyiftheUnitedStatesdeployedairtrafficcontrolpersonnel.

FromtheIranianperspective,precisionbombingisnotnecessarilyabadthing,evenifitcomesfromatraditionaladversary.NotonlycouldadvancedairsupportpreventtheTikritoffensivefromstallingcompletely,apotentialsourceofembarrassmentforIran,itcouldalsospeedupthefallofcity.AnotherimportantfactoristhatbriningintheUnitedStatescouldhelpIrandeflectblameshouldmisguidedordnancefallonSunniorShiitepopulations.However,thepossibilityofciviliancasualtiesalonemaybeenoughtodeterthecoalition,whichisunwillingtorisknoncombatantdeaths.

March 17-18

IraqisecurityforcessurroundingTikritcontinuetoreceivereinforcementsaheadofthefinalphaseoftheoperationtoclearIslamicStatefightersfromtheheartofthecity.ThecalltobattlehasattractedfightersfrompopularvolunteergroupsincludingtheBadrOrganization,theLeagueoftheRighteous,thePeaceBrigadesandtheiraffiliates.SeniorIraqiarmysourcesarekeentoemphasizethatmanyofthemilitiashaveexperiencefightinginbuiltupareasandthattheTikritoperationasawholehasplayedouttoalargelypredeterminedtimeline.Infact,thesuccessofthesecurityforces,heavilysupportedbyIran,hassofarexceededexpectations.

However,themostdifficultphaseisyettocome.WhilecombatengineersendeavortocleartheapproachestoTikrit,removingimprovisedandconventionalexplosives,aconcertedbombingcampaignissofteningupIslamicStatepositionsindowntownTikrit.Acombinationoflightandheavyartillery,fixedwingaircraft,attackhelicoptersandartilleryrocketscontinuetopoundtargetsinsidethecity.

FollowinguponreportsthatIransentadvancedmissilesystemstoSalahuddinprovince,U.S.militaryadvisersexpressedconcernabouttheuseofIranianheavyweaponsinthefightagainsttheIslamicState,giventheirindiscriminatenatureandpotency.TheShiitemilitiasareincreasinglywellequippedwithweaponsandmaterielsuppliedbyTehran.AhmadalAsadi,aspokespersonforthePeople'sMobilizationForces,saidthatTehranhadsuppliedweaponsandammunition"withoutlimitorconditions."Previously,U.S.StateDepartmentspokeswomanJenPsakiwarnedthattheunselectiveuseofordnancecouldexacerbatesectariantensionson



theground.

TheprospectofreprisalkillingsagainstIslamicStatesfightersandthosebelievedtohaveaidedthemisveryreal,exacerbatedbythediscoveryofatleastfourmassgraves,unearthedinthevicinityofAlbuAjeelvillage,eastofTikrit.TheremainsarethoughttobelongtoShiitefighters,fromnearbyContingencyOperatingBaseSpeicher,reportedlykilledintheIslamicStateassaultinJunethatforcedtheIraqiarmytowithdraw.Around1,700traineeswerebilletedinthecontingencyoperatingbasealsoknownasSpykerAirBaseatthetime.

AfurtherconcernfortheUnitedStatesandcoalitionforcesingeneraliswhathappenswhentheIslamicStatehasbeenoustedfromitsstrongholds.ThefirstandsecondGulfWarshighlightedtheproblemsthatcanariseinIraqwhenabreakdowninorderoccursinthewakeofintensefighting.WellarmedShiitemilitiasdirectlycontributetothefightagainstIslamicStateand,aswellasholdingagrudgeagainstanySunnistheysuspectofcollusion,willbewellplacedtoexploitanypowervacuumintheaftermathofmilitaryoperations.ThoughleafletsdroppedbyIraqihelicoptershavepromisedanysurrenderingfightersafairandunbiasedtrial,itremainstobeseenwhetherthatpromisewillbehonored.

The Coalition Focus on Stabilization

TheinauguralmeetingoftheCoalitionStabilizationWorkingGrouptookplaceinBerlinonMarch18.DrawingfromremarksmadeinBaghdadtwodaysearlier,aspeechbythespecialpresidentialenvoyfortheglobalcoalitiontocountertheIslamicState,JohnAllen,praisedthemembersofthecoalition,highlightingGermanyandtheUnitedArabEmiratesinparticular.Overthecourseoftheaddress,Allenemphasizednotonlythefiscalcostoftheendeavorbutalsotherequirementtosynchronizecivilianstabilizationeffortswiththemilitaryoperationsthatinevitablyprecedethem.

TheestablishmentofacoalitionsupportedstabilizationtaskforceinBaghdadindicatesanawarenessoftheproblemsassociatedwiththecreationofpowervacuumsinIraq.AllenhighlightedTikritinparticularasanupcomingcandidateforstabilizationefforts,emphasizingfourkeytenets:theclearanceoftheIslamicState,thesecurityandpolicingcomponentintheaftermath,therestorationoflocalgovernanceand,finally,theprovisionofessentialservices.

ThenecessityforIraqiforcestoleadthewayineffortsagainsttheIslamicStateillustratesthegeneralconsensusamongthecoalitioncountries:thatwhilethemilitantforcesneedtobeneutralized,thereisnostomachforthecommittalofsignificantexternalgroundforces.Money,closeairsupport,weaponsandlimitednumbersofadvisersarelikelytoremaintheorderoftheday,especiallyforWesterncountriesthathavenodesiretobecomeembroiledoncemoreinaMiddleEasterngroundcampaign.

March 14-16

Aftertwoweeksoffairlysteadygainsbysecurityforcesontheground,thebattleforTikritappearstohavehitastickingpoint.AsStratforpreviouslynoted,themostdifficultpartofanyurbanoperationistheclearancephasephysicallyrootingtheenemyoutfromeverydefendedareaandhidingplace.HavingsuccessfullyencircledTikrit,theIraqiarmyandShiitemilitias,supportedbyIranianadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,nowhavetoeliminatetheIslamicStateforcescontainedwithin.

Completelycutoffforanumberofdays,theremainingIslamicStatefightershavewithdrawntoanumberofdefensivepositionsandmaindefendedareasintheheartofTikrit'sdowntown.AnumberofmilitantsarealsoholedupintheSaddamerapalacecomplex,provingdifficulttodislodge.Althoughthesecurityforceshavenumerical,technologicalandlogisticalsuperiority,theextremelyrigorousdefensebyIslamicStatehasmade



advancingthefinalkilometersslowandcostly.ThousandsofimprovisedexplosivedevicesandconventionalmunitionshavebeenseededthroughoutTikrit,defeatingvehiclesanddismountedinfantryalike.IslamicStatesharpshootershavealsotargetedcombatengineersattemptingtoclearthedevices.

TheemploymentofvehicleborneIEDsandsuicidebombersraisesthestakesforthesecurityforces,addinganotherlayerofthreatandcomplexitytothealreadyhazardousthreedimensionalurbanbattlespace.Thepresenceofciviliansisafurthercomplication.SecurityforcesaretryingtomoveTikrit'spopulationawayfromthefighting,incurringfurtherdelays.Theriskofcollateraldamageisextremelyhighinbuiltupareas,andreportsindicatethattheIslamicStateispreventinglocalIraqisfromfleeing,valuingtheiruseashumanshields.TherearealsobelievedtobeanumberofhighlevelIslamicStatecommanderstrappedinTikritaswell,personnelwhohaveanintelligencevalueifcapturedalive.

Therequirementtobemethodical,preventciviliancasualtiesandleavesomeoftheenemyalivewillbeaserioustestfortheIraqisecurityforces.Itwillalsoputfrontlinepersonnelinextremedanger,whichhasalreadybeenreflectedinthemountingnumberofsecurityforcedeadandwounded,andthesteadystreamofreinforcementsandbattlefieldcasualtyreplacementscomingupfromthesouth.

Inadditiontothefrictionontheground,Stratforsourcesindicatethattensionisincreasingatthepoliticallevel,too.ThetakingofTikritisamajormilestoneinthefightagainsttheIslamicStateandBaghdadcannotaffordadebacle.Also,theIranianmilitaryadviserswhohavebeenprovidingguidanceandsupporttoIraqiforceshaveboastedoftheirabilitytomanageTikritwithoutU.S.ledcoalitionsupport.Asforwardmomentumgrindsslowerandslower,elementsoftheIraqiarmyarebeginningtoassertthattheprecisionofcoalitionairstrikesiskeytounlockingTikrit.However,thisisanuntenablepositionforbothWashingtonandTehran.TheUnitedStates,alongwithcoalitionpartnersandKurdishpeshmerga,iscommittedtosupportingtheassaultonMosul,whichisexpectedtobethetruetestofIraqisecurityforces.IranistakingtheleadinTikrit.ItisunlikelyfromapurelydiplomaticperspectivethateitherIranortheUnitedStateswouldbecontentwithsharingthesamebattlespace,forwhateverreason.

TheU.S.ledcoalitionmaywellbeabletoprovidedecisiveairinterventioninthebattleforTikrit,butnotwhiletheIraniansareinvolved.And,pullingoutissomethingTehranisnotpreparedtodo,notwhileithasitsowngeopoliticalinterestsintheregion.So,fornow,thebattleforTikritisonthevergeofstalling.Forthesecurityforcestopresshometheadvantagetheyhavegainedthusfar,Baghdadmustacceptthatthebloodiestdaysofthebattleareyettocome.

March 12-13

TheIslamicStatecontinuestogiveupgroundinTikritafterdaysofintensefighting.TheIraqiarmy,supportedbyShiitemilitias,IranianmilitaryadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,isconsolidatingitspositionaroundcentralTikrit.PocketsofresistanceremaininSaddam'spalaceandoutlyingareas,butthemainIslamicStateforceislargelycontainedinthecentralbusinessdistrictandindustrialbelt.



ReportsindicatethattheentireeastbankoftheTigrisRiverisundercontrolofsecurityforcesandthattheIslamicState'snorthernsupplyrouteissevered,preventingfurtherreinforcementsorexfiltration.AlthoughIslamicStatefightershaveconcededterritory,theycontinuetoexactacostontheattackingforcesurbanterrainisaforcemultiplierfordefenders.Aswellasemployingconventionalweaponsandskirmishtactics,theyaremakingextensiveuseofimprovisedexplosivedevices.

EnteringthebuiltupareaofdowntownTikrit,thesecurityforcesareheavilychanneledandmustexposethemselvestoboobytraps,murderholesandsniperfireastheybegintheclearanceinearnest.AlthoughtheIraqistatemediaclaimsthathundredsofIslamicStatefightershavebeenkilledsofarinTikrit,thedeathtollcontinuestoriseonthesideofthesecurityforcesaswell.SourcesreportahighnumberofIraqicasualtiesbeingevacuatedbacktowardBaghdad,withreinforcementsbeingsentforward.Althoughgovernmentbackedforceshavetheoverwhelmingadvantage,asIslamicStateforcescontractintopositionsthatconcentratetheirmanpower,theymaybeabletoachievelocalparitywithattackingelements.

ThebattleforTikritisenteringitsfinal,bloodystages.Securityforceswillhavetoclearstreetbystreet,buildingbybuildingandroombyroom,inevitablyincurringcasualtiesastheydoso.FortheremainingIslamicStatemilitants,theirsisnowafighttothedeath,withdwindlingnumbersandlimitedammunition.Theoperationhassofarbeenasuccess,butonewithsignificantcasualtiesonbothsidesandmoretocomeintheimmediatefuture.



March 11

TheTikritoffensivecontinuestomakeheadway.Althougharmedresistanceislighterthananticipated,thesheeramountofexplosivedevicesseededalongthemainaxesofadvancehasslowedtheattackingforces.Nevertheless,IraqisecurityforcesaresolidifyingtheirholdontheAlQadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth.Tothesouth,Tikritgeneralhospitalisingovernmenthands,andfightingcontinuestowrestcontrolofthepalacecomplexbuiltbySaddamHusseinonthewestbankoftheTigrisfromtheIslamicState.Accordingtorecentreports,theeastbankoftheriverisalmostentirelyunderthecontrolofsecurityforcesandShiitemilitias.

Iraq'sministerofstateforprovincialaffairs,AhmedAbdullahalJubouri,saidtheIslamicStatehasplacedaround6,000IEDsandlandminesinandaroundTikrit.ThethreatfromsuchdevicesisthesinglelargestimpedimenttotheadvanceofgroundforcesintoTikrit.Locatinganddisposingofantipersonnelandantivehicleexplosivesistimeconsumingaswellasinherentlydangerous.

SourcesonthegroundindicatethatIslamicStatefighterscontinuetoleavetheTikritbattlespaceattheirownriskIraqinewsmediareportedthattheIslamicStateisexecutingsomefleeingfighterstodissuadeotherpotentialdeserters.IraqiaviationassetshavealsobeentakingtheirtollonIslamicStateconvoysmovingbetweenTikritandHawija,amilitantbastionnortheastofBeiji,ontheroutetoKirkuk.AswellasusingU.S.



producedAH64attackhelicopters,theIraqiarmyisdeployingEurocopterEC635T2lighthelicoptergunships,armedwithheavymachinegunsandunguidedrockets.RussiahassuppliedfourMi35MHindEtroopcarryingattackhelicoptersandthreeMi28HavocattackhelicopterstoaidinthefightagainsttheIslamicState.

Baghdadiskeentoemphasizetheinclusivenatureoftheoperation,withtheIraqiarmytakingtheleadinthefighting,supportedbyShiitemilitiasandaround1,000Sunnifighters,andIranassistingwithmilitaryadvisersandsomeweaponry.However,theinvolvementoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorpsinanoffensiveonIraqisoilhasgeneratedconcerninsomeareasofBaghdad'spoliticalestablishmentaswellasinneighboringcountries:SaudiForeignMinisterPrinceSaudalFaisalaccusedIranoftryingtotakeoverIraqinaMarch5newsconference.

ThereisalsoconcernamongtheKurdishandSunnicommunitiesinIraqregardingtheconductofprogovernmentShiitemilitias.ThecommunitiesareworriedthatreprisalattacksagainstIslamicStatefightersmayextendtoanySunniswhowereallegedtohavesupportedorcolludedwithmilitants.Therearealsoconcernsthat,havingestablishedsomedegreeoflocalcontrol,Shiitefighterswillbereluctanttorelinquishtheirpower,possiblyfuelingfurthersectarianviolenceinthevacuumofapostIslamicStateIraq.

March 6-10

Iraqiforces,consistingofregulararmyformationsandlocalShiitemilitiasandassistedbyIranianadvisers,continuetotightenthenoosearoundIslamicStateforcesinTikrit.TheoutlyingtownofalAlamhasbeensecuredtothenortheast.ClosertoTikrititself,thesuburbofalDawrhasbeensecuredtothesouth,theAlQadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth,andpartsofAlbuAjeelareinthehandsofBaghdad'sforces.Iraqi

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/strategic-reversal-united-states-iran-and-middle-east



formationstothewestofTikrithavesecuredtheentirewestside,forcingIslamicStatefighterstowithdrawbacktothecityproper.

SourcesonthegroundreportedthatmissileandartilleryfirehadbeendirectedatIslamicStatestrongholdsinthecenterofTikrit,whileunconfirmedreportssaidmilitantshadbeenseenfleeingnorthfromTikritandalAlamtoBeiji,andonwardtoHawija.DespiteeffortstocompletelyencircleTikrit,theIslamicStatehasbeenabletomaintainasupplylinetothenorth.ThecommanderofIraqiarmyaviation,Gen.HamidalMaliki,drewattentiontotherateofattritionachievedbyIraqicloseairsupport,whichincludesAH64attackhelicoptersbuiltandsuppliedbytheUnitedStates.ThegeneralsaidMarch10thatover30vehiclesusedbytheIslamicStatehadbeendestroyedinandaroundTikritandthatasignificantnumberofcasualtieshadbeeninflictedonthegroup.

U.S.Gen.MartinDempsey,chairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,metwithIraq'sprimeministeranddefenseministerinBaghdadonMarch9todiscusstheongoingmilitaryoperationsinSalahuddinandAnbarprovinces.DempseyappearedbeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommitteeinWashingtononMarch3,callingtheinvolvementofIranianbackedShiitemilitiasinthefightforTikritpositive,aslongastheirpresencedidnotexacerbatetensionswiththeSunnicommunity,somethingthatcouldeasilyderailtheunityof



Baghdad'sforcesinthefightagainsttheIslamicState.

March 1-5

TheIraqiarmymadegainsinruralareaseastofTikrit,havingestablishedablockingpositiontothewest.BycapturingthesuburbsofalDawrtothesouthandalAlamtothenorth,IslamicStatefightershaveincreasinglybeenforcedtofallbacktothecity.InanattempttoslowadvancingforcesanddisruptairstrikesfromIraqifixedwingaircraftandattackhelicopters,themilitantssetfiretotheAjiloilfield,creatingmassivecloudsofsmoke.

ReportscontinuetoindicatethatIraqiattemptstolockdownTikrithavenotbeensuccessful,withIslamicStatefightersstillpossessinglimitedfreedomofmovement.SourcesonthegroundclaimthatelementsoftheIslamicStateleadershipinTikrithavealreadyfledthecity.AlthoughitisunlikelythattheIslamicStatewouldrelinquishitsgriponTikritwithoutextractingacostontheattackingforces,theexodusofgroundcommanderscouldindicateanexpectationthatthecitywillfall.Additionalreports,however,suggestthatIslamicStateforceshaveabandonedQayyarahAirBase,southofMosul,tofreeupreinforcementsforTikrit.Thiswouldindicatethemilitantgroupispreparedtostanditsground,orintheworstcase,counterattackinforce.

ImprovisedexplosivedevicesandsniperfireareslowingBaghdad'sforcesandantiIslamicStatemilitias.AroadsidebombinthesouthernalDawrdistrictkilledthecommanderoftheShiitemilitiaLeagueofRighteousnessonMarch4,alongwithhisbodyguard.OtherproIraqigovernmentforcesdiscoveredabombmakingfactoryintheNaouradistrict,recoveringsome40explosivedevicesreadyforuse.



Aftertighteningtheperimeter,about30,000IraqisoldiersandShiitemilitiafightersarepoisedtoattackthecitywithaircoverfromrotaryandfixedwingaircraft.FightingintheurbanenvironmentwillbecostlierforthemilitarybecausethebuiltupterraingivesthedefendingIslamicStateforcesasignificantadvantage.Anestimated28,000civilianshavealreadyfledthecityinanticipationofthecomingassault.

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The Battle for Tikrit Enters Its Final Hour