The Future of the Intenet How will _ I_ affect my life?

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  • 1. The Future of the Intenet How will I affect my life? Imad M Tarabay Chairman & CEO Fiberlink networks [email_address] Cisco Expo 2001 July 10 th 2001 Phoenicia Hotel Beirut / Lebanon
  • 2. Objective of My Presentation
    • Bring awareness to the value of internet
    • Bring awareness to the impacts internet may have on our lives 5 years ahead
    • Where are we in Lebanon today?
  • 3. Misleading quotes
    • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
    Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
  • 4. Misleading quotes
    • "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
    Ken Olson, President, Chairman & Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
  • 5. Misleading quotes
    • 32 bits should be enough address space for Internet
    Vint Cerf, 1977
  • 6. Misleading quotes
    • " 640K ought to be enough
    • for anybody ."
    Bill Gates, 1981
  • 7.
    • It is estimated that the Internet doubles in size every 11months and the World Wide Web doubles every 53 days.
    Internet Today FACTS
  • 8. The Internet Today (November 1998)!
    • 7 new users every second are added
    • Doubling in data transmission every 100 days
    • Doubling in data storage usage every 8 months
    • 10,000 domain names are being registered daily
    • Over 50 million people use the internet every week
  • 9. Statistics from IITF Report The emerging digital economy *
    • To get to market of 50,000,000 people
    • participating:
      • - Radio took 38 years
      • - TV took 13 years
      • - Internet made it in 4 years (once
      • opened to public)
    Delivered to the President and US Public on April 15 th 1999 by B. Daley, Sec. Of Commerce of the Information Infrastructure Task Force.
  • 10.
    • 50 Million Users
    • (Jul 1997)
    • 407 Million Users
    • (NUA Nov 2000 )
    Internet Global Statistics 22.5 Million Hosts (Bellcore June 1997) 115 Million Hosts (NW/TC Jan 2001)
  • 11. Worldwide Internet Users Nov 2000
    • CAN/US 167.12M 41%
    • Europe 113.14M 28%
    • Asia/Pac 104.88M 26%
    • Latin Am 16.45M 4%
    • Africa 3.11M 0.8%
    • Mid-East 2.4 M 0.6%
    • ---------------------------
    • Total - 407.1 M
    (Source www.nua.ie)
  • 12. Internet User Trends Source: Nua Internet Surveys + vgc projections
  • 13. 2005 & beyond NGI
  • 14. based on the Internet explosion needs: Boost Infrastructure Larger bandwidth (thirsty applications) Robust infrastructure (no last mile congestion. That moved to server level IP to every appliance (but IPs are scarce 27% left > IP v6) The big picture: Power of the mouse
  • 15.
    • Approximately 70 units are left = 27 %
      • Here one unit means 1/256 of the total IPv4 address space size, i.e. /8 (=equivalent size of Class A)
    • Address Usage Rate (units per a year)
    IPv4 Address Usage Estimate 4.44 2.08 1.16 1.2 2000 ?? 2001 2.67 1.29 0.58 0.8 1999 0.77 1998 Total ARIN (America) APNIC ( Asia/Pacific ) RIPE/NC (Europe)
  • 16. IP v6 a new standard of IP #ing
    • Larger address space - IP v6 is 128 bit
    • (6x10 38 / sq. meter)
    • Plug & Play Auto configuration: Can talk to IP v4 network (32 bit)
    • Simplify routing without resources, create multi-level heirarchies of address allocation.
    • QoS and CoS (Class of Service)
    • DEAD:BEEF::73:FEED:F00D
    • Pro-Multimedia & Multi-cast
    • Embedded Security
    IPv6 - a small step for IP but a giant leap for Telcos
  • 17. INTERNET NEW INTERNET ARPANET Internet Generations
  • 18. Can the Internet run Quality & Security in one go?
    • Internet multicast video, telephony and radio
    • Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV
    • Real-time quality of service support, VoIP
    • Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)
  • 19. Internet-enabled Devices In need of IP Addresses, at least!
    • Information appliances
      • 1997 -- 3 M,
      • 1998 -- 6 M,
      • 2002 -- 56 M (IDC)
      • 2006 490 M (IDC)
    • WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games
    • Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)
  • 20. What are we mostly using the internet for today?
    • E-mail
    • www
    • Chatting
    • E-commerce
    • video streaming (non-interactive)
    • Audio streaming
    • What else?
  • 21. What will we use the internet for in 2005?
  • 22.
  • 23. GEO-INDEPENDENCE
    • If you own a business
          • take your office worldwide mobile office
          • always connected when you want
          • attend your board meeting while in Hawaii
    • If you are employed
          • work/live in Lebanon (close to parents) while employed in EU or USA
          • SOHO concept revived
    • If you are a professional
          • i-learning
          • i-recruitment
          • e-medicine
    Imagine all this w/ net speech recognition
  • 24.
  • 25. Imagine !
    • If you own a fast food / delivery restaurant
          • you can broadcast your instant offer to refris,
          • increase sales,
          • lower loss of food
    • If you as consumer want to eat or cook
          • get the recipe online
          • speak (voice & video) to friend through refri to discuss cooking tips
          • order your meal online w/ scheduled delivery
          • listen to music or watch i-TV while cooking and talking on IP-Phone,
          • teach a class how to cook Thanksgiving Turkey!
    • If you as refrigerator vendor
          • perform regular maintenance online
          • sell applications (ads, recipe, value added w/ FF chains)
    • Home weather internet appliance
  • 26. Source: Cadence, 1998
  • 27. Imagine !
    • Define geographical area authorized to travel define speed fi