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The Global Transport
Challenge: a 50% Reduction in
CO2 Emissions by 2050
David Banister
Director of the Transport Studies Unit
School of Geography and the Environment
Oxford University, UK.
24th February 2011
Keynote presentation at the ITPS Symposium on the
Transport System in a Low Carbon Society, Tokyo
The Global Transport Challenge
1. Transport brings
enormous
benefits –
globalisation,
travel and trade
2. Totally
dependent on
oil – uses 61%
global oil
3. Major
contributor to
CO2 emissions
– about 24% IPCC 2007: Figure 5.4: Historical and projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970–2050 Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b.
Global Imperative for Transport
1. Reduce the rate of growth of energy use in transport –
energy intensity and relative decoupling
2. Reduce the use of energy in transport – real decoupling
3. Switch to renewable energy sources
4. Reduce inequities between and within countries
Total Transport
Global
EU27
USA
Target
China
India
4.38
7.72
18.35
2.00
4.91
1.25
1.00
1.89
5.54
0.75
0.34
0.12
Carbon Emissions
– tCO2 per person
(2008)
Source: IEA (2010) CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion, Paris: IEA Statistics, November
Lack of Effective Action
in Transport
EU27 Growth in
Transport Emissions
1990-2005 – MtCO2e
Greenhouse gas emissions by
transport mode (EU-27: 2005) –
including international transport
Final transport energy consumption
by liquid fuels in EU-27 (2005) - Ktoe
Source: JRC (2008) Backcasting approach to sustainable mobility, Luxembourg, EUR 23387
CO2 emissions projections for 2050 by end user in the EU-27 (2005) – MtCO2
1990 2000 2010 1990-2010 2020 2030 2050 2010-50
Road transport
Rail
Domestic air
Inland navigation
695
29
86
21
825
29
134
16
905
27
179
16
+30%
-7%
+108%
-24%
980
27
206
17
1002
21
237
17
1018
20
244
17
+12%
-26%
+36%
+6%
Total 810 988 1110 +37% 1213 1260 1299 +17%
EU-27 = 32% energy and
25% CO2
Complete dependence
on oil = 71% oil
1kg of petrol or diesel =
3.15 kg CO2
EU-27 Total and transport emissions (Kyoto base + bunkers)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Total emissions (Kyoto base + bunkers) Transport emissions (Kyote base + bunkers)
Total EU-27 GHG emissions
(incl. bunkers)
Transport emissions
(incl. bunkers)
Transport emission growth 1.61% p.a. (avg 1990-2008)
Linear trajectories toward 80%
and 95% reduction targets
EU-27 20% and 30% emission reduction target range
Source: EEA (2010) Working Paper: Images of low carbon transport in 2050: An end users perspective,
Copenhagen: EEA, October
Transport emissions continue to
grow while those from other
sectors decline
Global Transport in 2050
2008 2050
Land transport
Air transport
Shipping
Global Total
6.6 Gt CO2 (22%)
0.730 Gt CO2 (2.2%)
1 Gt CO2 (3.1%)
29.381 Gt CO2
3.2 – 3.6 Gt CO2 (20-22%)
2.4 – 3.2 Gt CO2 (15-20%)
2.4 – 3.6 Gt CO2 (15-22%)
16 Gt CO2 (100%)
Notes: 2050 figure is 50% of 2005 figure. This means that nearly 65% of all carbon
emissions could come from transport – see figures above. Air transport figures from
IEA (2008) and shipping from the second IMO GHG CO2 study (2009).
Looking into the Future
Scenarios: innovation, reflexivity, framing in analysing
change in socio economic systems
1. Forecasting - Projective
a) Probable futures and possible futures
b) Where current trends are stable
c) Time horizon about 10 years
d) American tradition – cautious no
regrets strategy is taken
e) Regional in scale – promoted by
metropolitan planning authorities –
sprawl and urban form
f) Quantitative and some evaluation –
conventional futures being considered
2. Exploratory - Prospective
a) Most widely used – two dimensions
and four scenarios
b) Possible and plausible futures –
challenging and designed to
promote new thinking
c) French Tradition or La Prospective
– present the possibility space and
uncertainty explicit
d) Interactive and participatory
e) Peter Schwartz – 10 steps
f) Mixed quantitative and qualitative -
workshops
3. Visioning - Backcasting
a) Longer term (20-30 years) trend breaking
b) More normative view of the future
c) Desirable futures – visioning – pathways
d) Swedish tradition – participatory
e) John Robinson
f) Flexibility, adaptability and robustness
g) Quantitative and qualitative
1. Baseline and projection
2. Alternative image(s) of the
future
3. Policy measures and
packages available
4. Appraisal, costing, optimum
pathways
5. Conclusions – policy
recommendations
5 Stages
Key elements in Backcasting
1. Uncertainty explicit – energy costs $90 a barrel
2. Differential economic growth rates, population growth, migration and
ageing all treated as external elements
3. Changes in activities – work to leisure based society, differential levels
of development, role of technology
4. Different Images of the Future – to encompass views on sustainable
development, consumption, pricing, technology and behavioural
change
5. Reviews the full range of policy options – then puts them together in
mutually supporting packages
6. Identifies pathways from the present to the future – to determine what
actions should be taken now, where the ‘quick hits’ are, and the scale
of change needed
7. Appraisal of policy packages through multicriteria analysis
8. Extensive participation throughout the Backcasting process.
Backcasting Studies in Transport
Jinan - China
Delhi - India
London - UK
Oxfordshire - UK
Auckland - NZ
Victoria - Canada
UK Transport Policy
Developing Policy Packages
Context and Baseline
Policy Package Appraisal
Targets and Images
ITPS - Study of Transport System in
a Low Carbon Society
Conclusions and
Recommendations
1.Technology is important – but only part of
the solution – possibly about 50% of target
2.Rebound effects important – more travel
3.Slow transport – reliability and resilience of
network
4.Scale of change required – no single
solution but combinations of policies
Conclusions (cont)
5. Leadership central – need a vision of a
carbon neutral transport system
6. Engagement of population and other
stakeholders – importance of workshops
7. Perhaps requires institutional and
organisational change – too many actors
8. Urgent action is needed now – no targets
have yet been met.