15
The Global Transport Challenge: a 50% Reduction in CO 2 Emissions by 2050 David Banister Director of the Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment Oxford University, UK. 24 th February 2011 Keynote presentation at the ITPS Symposium on the Transport System in a Low Carbon Society, Tokyo

The Global Transport Challenge: a 50% Reduction in … Global Transport Challenge: a 50% Reduction in CO 2 ... Reduce the use of energy in transport –real decoupling 3. ... Carbon

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

The Global Transport

Challenge: a 50% Reduction in

CO2 Emissions by 2050

David Banister

Director of the Transport Studies Unit

School of Geography and the Environment

Oxford University, UK.

24th February 2011

Keynote presentation at the ITPS Symposium on the

Transport System in a Low Carbon Society, Tokyo

The Global Transport Challenge

1. Transport brings

enormous

benefits –

globalisation,

travel and trade

2. Totally

dependent on

oil – uses 61%

global oil

3. Major

contributor to

CO2 emissions

– about 24% IPCC 2007: Figure 5.4: Historical and projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970–2050 Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b.

Global Imperative for Transport

1. Reduce the rate of growth of energy use in transport –

energy intensity and relative decoupling

2. Reduce the use of energy in transport – real decoupling

3. Switch to renewable energy sources

4. Reduce inequities between and within countries

Total Transport

Global

EU27

USA

Target

China

India

4.38

7.72

18.35

2.00

4.91

1.25

1.00

1.89

5.54

0.75

0.34

0.12

Carbon Emissions

– tCO2 per person

(2008)

Source: IEA (2010) CO2 emissions from fuel

combustion, Paris: IEA Statistics, November

Lack of Effective Action

in Transport

EU27 Growth in

Transport Emissions

1990-2005 – MtCO2e

Greenhouse gas emissions by

transport mode (EU-27: 2005) –

including international transport

Final transport energy consumption

by liquid fuels in EU-27 (2005) - Ktoe

Source: JRC (2008) Backcasting approach to sustainable mobility, Luxembourg, EUR 23387

CO2 emissions projections for 2050 by end user in the EU-27 (2005) – MtCO2

1990 2000 2010 1990-2010 2020 2030 2050 2010-50

Road transport

Rail

Domestic air

Inland navigation

695

29

86

21

825

29

134

16

905

27

179

16

+30%

-7%

+108%

-24%

980

27

206

17

1002

21

237

17

1018

20

244

17

+12%

-26%

+36%

+6%

Total 810 988 1110 +37% 1213 1260 1299 +17%

EU-27 = 32% energy and

25% CO2

Complete dependence

on oil = 71% oil

1kg of petrol or diesel =

3.15 kg CO2

EU-27 Total and transport emissions (Kyoto base + bunkers)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Total emissions (Kyoto base + bunkers) Transport emissions (Kyote base + bunkers)

Total EU-27 GHG emissions

(incl. bunkers)

Transport emissions

(incl. bunkers)

Transport emission growth 1.61% p.a. (avg 1990-2008)

Linear trajectories toward 80%

and 95% reduction targets

EU-27 20% and 30% emission reduction target range

Source: EEA (2010) Working Paper: Images of low carbon transport in 2050: An end users perspective,

Copenhagen: EEA, October

Transport emissions continue to

grow while those from other

sectors decline

Global Transport in 2050

2008 2050

Land transport

Air transport

Shipping

Global Total

6.6 Gt CO2 (22%)

0.730 Gt CO2 (2.2%)

1 Gt CO2 (3.1%)

29.381 Gt CO2

3.2 – 3.6 Gt CO2 (20-22%)

2.4 – 3.2 Gt CO2 (15-20%)

2.4 – 3.6 Gt CO2 (15-22%)

16 Gt CO2 (100%)

Notes: 2050 figure is 50% of 2005 figure. This means that nearly 65% of all carbon

emissions could come from transport – see figures above. Air transport figures from

IEA (2008) and shipping from the second IMO GHG CO2 study (2009).

Looking into the Future

Scenarios: innovation, reflexivity, framing in analysing

change in socio economic systems

1. Forecasting - Projective

a) Probable futures and possible futures

b) Where current trends are stable

c) Time horizon about 10 years

d) American tradition – cautious no

regrets strategy is taken

e) Regional in scale – promoted by

metropolitan planning authorities –

sprawl and urban form

f) Quantitative and some evaluation –

conventional futures being considered

2. Exploratory - Prospective

a) Most widely used – two dimensions

and four scenarios

b) Possible and plausible futures –

challenging and designed to

promote new thinking

c) French Tradition or La Prospective

– present the possibility space and

uncertainty explicit

d) Interactive and participatory

e) Peter Schwartz – 10 steps

f) Mixed quantitative and qualitative -

workshops

3. Visioning - Backcasting

a) Longer term (20-30 years) trend breaking

b) More normative view of the future

c) Desirable futures – visioning – pathways

d) Swedish tradition – participatory

e) John Robinson

f) Flexibility, adaptability and robustness

g) Quantitative and qualitative

1. Baseline and projection

2. Alternative image(s) of the

future

3. Policy measures and

packages available

4. Appraisal, costing, optimum

pathways

5. Conclusions – policy

recommendations

5 Stages

Backcasting : Study Method

Key elements in Backcasting

1. Uncertainty explicit – energy costs $90 a barrel

2. Differential economic growth rates, population growth, migration and

ageing all treated as external elements

3. Changes in activities – work to leisure based society, differential levels

of development, role of technology

4. Different Images of the Future – to encompass views on sustainable

development, consumption, pricing, technology and behavioural

change

5. Reviews the full range of policy options – then puts them together in

mutually supporting packages

6. Identifies pathways from the present to the future – to determine what

actions should be taken now, where the ‘quick hits’ are, and the scale

of change needed

7. Appraisal of policy packages through multicriteria analysis

8. Extensive participation throughout the Backcasting process.

Backcasting Studies in Transport

Jinan - China

Delhi - India

London - UK

Oxfordshire - UK

Auckland - NZ

Victoria - Canada

UK Transport Policy

Developing Policy Packages

Context and Baseline

Policy Package Appraisal

Targets and Images

ITPS - Study of Transport System in

a Low Carbon Society

Conclusions and

Recommendations

1.Technology is important – but only part of

the solution – possibly about 50% of target

2.Rebound effects important – more travel

3.Slow transport – reliability and resilience of

network

4.Scale of change required – no single

solution but combinations of policies

Conclusions (cont)

5. Leadership central – need a vision of a

carbon neutral transport system

6. Engagement of population and other

stakeholders – importance of workshops

7. Perhaps requires institutional and

organisational change – too many actors

8. Urgent action is needed now – no targets

have yet been met.