The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering

Climate Change Scenarios

The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering

Climate Change Scenarios

Nankyoung Moon1, Sung-You Hong2, Soontae Kim3, Jung-Hun Woo4

1 Korea Environment Institute, 2Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University

2ContentsContents

Background1

Multi-scale Modeling System2

Climate Change & Air Quality3

Summary4

31. Background1. Background

Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humid-ity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc.

Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological pa-rameters, which could have important impacts on air qual-ity.

To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.

4

45°E 60°E 75°E 90°E 105°E120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E

0 °N

5 °N

10°N

15°N

20°N

25°N

30°N

35°N

40°N

45°N

50°N

Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ

Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSMGlobal Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5

Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF

Return

Downscaling Method

2. Multi-scale Modeling System2. Multi-scale Modeling System

5

Global Precipitation & Temperature

ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorol-ogy)(Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate)

RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008)

45°E 60°E 75°E 90°E 105°E120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E

0 °N

5 °N

10°N

15°N

20°N

25°N

30°N

35°N

40°N

45°N

50°N

• GCM forcing : ECHAM5

• For control climate: 1978-2000 • For future climate: 2038-2070

• Participants : 11 RCM group including Yonsei Univ, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, Russia, Austrailia, USA)

RMIP domain (171*131(50km))

Global Temperature

6

 Physics Option

Short-wave Dudhia

(Dudhia 1989)

Long-wave RRTM

(Mlawer et al. 1997)

Surface Parameterization NOAH

(Chen and Duhia 2001)

PBL Scheme Yonsei University (Hong et al. 2006)

Cumulus Parameterization Kain-Fritsch (Kain 2004)

Micro-cloud Physics WSM3

(Hong et al. 1998)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

7

Precipitation Anomaly during 1979-2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N)

1995 summer : near normal summer

Current climate Future climate (2000~2100)

1995 2055

2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070)

8

Experimental Setup

ECHAM5RSM

(50km)WRF

(27km)WRF (9km)

Global Asia East Asia Korea

1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations

ECHAM5 RSM (50km) WRF (27km) WRF (9km)

Global Asia East Asia Korea

2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations

BC & ICBC & ICBC by 1-way

nesting

9

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm)

Observation (CMAP) Present (1994-1996)

Future (2054-2056)

Future - Present

Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate.

3. Climate Change & Air Quality3. Climate Change & Air Quality

10

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

Present (1994-1996)

Future (2054-2056)

The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the fu-ture

Future - Present

JJA 500 hPa geopotential height (m)

11

Present (1994-1996)

Future (2054-2056)

Future – Present

The marine water vapor in the fu-ture diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pa-cific area.

The specific humidity increase in the future climate.

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)

12

Present (1994-1996)

Future (2054-2056)

The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2 .℃

Future – Present

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

JJA 850 hPa geopotential height (m) and temperature ( )℃

13

SudoKangwon

Chungcheong

Youngnam

Honam

Analysis Area

14

Present (1994-1996)

Future (2054-2056)

Difference (Future-Present)

Future Climate - Flow changes sounthwest from

west- Increasing of specific humidity

Wind & Specific Humidity JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)

15

Surface Maximum Mean Temperature

199619951994

205620552054

16

Surface Maximum Mean Temperature

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.54 ℃)

17

199619951994

205620552054

Surface Minimum Mean Temperature

18

Surface Minimum Mean Temperature

3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.44 ℃)

1994~1996

2054~2056

19

199619951994

205620552054

Surface Mean Temperature

20

Surface Mean Temperature

3-yr Mean temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.51 ℃)

1994~1996

2054~2056

21

Surface Temperature - JJA

Daily Mean Min. Temp. Diff. (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

TE

MP

.(¡É

)

Daily Mean Temp. Diff. (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

TE

MP

.(¡É

)

Daily Mean Min. Temp. Daily Mean Max. Temp. Daily Mean Temp.Daily Mean Max. Temp. Diff. (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

TE

MP

.(¡É

)

Diff. ( Future – Current)

Present Future Difference

Mean Min. Temp. 20.57 22.01 1.44

Mean Max. Temp. 28.26 29.80 1.54

Mean Temp. 24.11 25.62 1.51

(Unit:℃)

22

Accumulated Precipitation

199619951994

205620552054

23

Accumulated Precipitation

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)

24

Accumulated PrecipitationAccumulated Precipitation

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1994~1996 2054~2056

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

(m

m)

Accumulated Precipitation Difference (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0

50

100

150

200

DIF

FER

EN

CE

(m

m)

R.O.Korea

Present Future

831.8 908.5

Difference 76.7

(mm)

25

Maximum Mean PBL height

199619951994

205620552054

26

Maximum Mean PBL height

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference

(Future – Current : -11m)

27

Maximum Mean PBL height

R.O.Korea

Present Future

1191 1180

-11

(mm)

Daily Mean Max. PBL Height

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1994~1996 2054~2056

HE

IGH

T (

m)

Daily Mean Max. PBL Height Difference (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

DIF

FER

EN

CE

(m

)

28

199619951994

20562054

Mean PBL height

2055

29

Mean PBL height

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean PBL height difference

(Future – Current :-24m)

30

Mean PBL height

R.O.Korea

Present Future

569 545

-24

(m)

Daily Mean PBL Height Difference (future-current)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor-40

-30

-20

-10

0

DIF

FER

EN

CE

(m

)

Daily Mean PBL Height

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor

450

500

550

600

650

1994~1996 2054~2056

HE

IGH

T (

m)

31

CMAQChemistry Transport Model

Aerosol

Plumein

Grid

Gas-phaseChemistry

Diffusion

Photolysis rates

J PROC

WRFRAMSMM5

MeteorologicalModel Ouput

MCIPSMOKE

EmissionsProcessing

ECIP*

MEPPS*

Advection

CloudAqueousProcess

PDM

ICON/ BCONInit ial/ boundaryconditions

Processanalysis

Models-3Computational

Framework

Photolysis

SMOKE Tool

* Used in versions of CMAQ released before 2001

CommunityMulti-pollutantMulti-scaleAir QualityModelingSystem

Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ

32

Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

CMAQ Simulation

CMAQ Version 4.6

Chemical Mechanism SAPRC99

Emissions 2004 CAPSS & Intex-B

Boundary Condition GEOS-CHEM

Advection Scheme PPM

Horizontal Diffusion Multi-scale

Vertical Diffusion Eddy

Cloud Scheme RADM

Dates JJA (1994-1996), (2054-2056)

33

Input data

AreaArea

NonroadNonroad

MobileMobile

PointPoint

Annual

EmissionsShape filesEmissionsShape files

AQFAQF

MIMS Spatial Allocator

MIMS Spatial Allocator

Annual, Monthly

Annual

Annual

Spatial allocation; domain-specific

Temporal allocation; hourly resolved emissions

Chemical speciation; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2

Plume rise; Point Sources

SMOKE processingKEI-EIPS

• Format conversion DB/ASCII IDA

• SCC mapping Split factors for chemical speciation Temporal profiles

• Surrogates Spatial allocation for county-based emissions

Emissions processing with SMOKE

34

NO (ex.)

PointMobile

Area Non-road

Point

35

SudoKangwon

ChungcheongYoungnam

Honam

Regional ScaleMCIP & CMAQ

27 – 9km

℃

Model Domain

36

Area mean 8-hr O3 (Observed vs Modeled) for June, 2004

Area mean 8-hr O3 (Observed), ppb

0 20 40 60 80 100

Are

a m

ean

8-hr

O3

(Mod

eded

), p

pb

0

20

40

60

80

100

Observed vs Modeled 1:1 Line

4.1686.0 xy

Model vs Observation

37

Met_only

A1B

Case Run Climate Change Emissions

○ X

○ ○

- Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same

level of present emissions- A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future

Simulation Case

38

Emissions (present)

39

　　

CO NOx VOC NH3 SO2 PM10

A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1

Power 4.68 5.05 2.75 3.03 2.59 0.50 5.58 7.97 3.97 - - - 2.86 0.56 0.21 4.68 5.05 2.75

Industry 2.11 1.81 0.48 2.08 1.64 0.95 2.25 2.42 1.26 2.26 2.27 1.40 1.29 0.76 0.35 2.11 1.81 0.48

Residential 2.18 0.79 0.20 3.15 4.12 1.83 1.91 0.85 0.19 2.00 3.50 1.55 2.19 0.27 0.11 2.18 0.79 0.20

Transportation 1.12 0.62 0.15 1.39 0.88 0.25 1.12 0.64 0.15 - - - 1.23 1.26 0.58 1.23 0.78 0.22

Emission Projection Factor (2055)

40

Present

Future

(Unit : moles/s)

Future Emissions

CO NO2SO2

41

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)

199619951994

205620552054

42

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference

(Future – Current)

43

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)

R.O.Korea

Present Future

46.27 52.40

Difference 6.12

(ppb)

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0

20

40

60

80

1994~1996 2054~2056

CO

NC

EN

TR

AT

ION

(pp

b)

Surface Mean O3 Concentration Difference (met_only)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0

2

4

6

8

10

DIF

FER

EN

CE

(pp

b)

44

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)

199619951994

205620552054

45

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference

(Future – Current)

46

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)

R.O.Korea

Present Future

46.27 60.67

Difference 14.40

(ppb)

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0

20

40

60

80

1994~1996 2054~2056

CO

NC

EN

TR

AT

ION

(pp

n)

Surface Mean O3 Concentration Difference (A1B)

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0

4

8

12

16

20

DIF

FER

EN

CE

(pp

b)

47

Process Analysis - IPR (Integrated Process Rate) : can be used to determine the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical process

48

Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)

KST0 4 8 12 16 20 24

ppb/

hr

-4

-2

0

2

4

ppb

0

5

10

15

20

IPR of SFC O3 (met_only)

KST

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

ppb/

hr

-20

-10

0

10

20

ppb

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

IPR of SFC O3 (A1B)

KST

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

ppb/

hr

-20

-10

0

10

20

ppb

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)

KST

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

ppb/

hr

-4

-2

0

2

4

ppb

0

5

10

15

20

IPR of SFC O3 (current)

KST0 4 8 12 16 20 24

ppb/

hr

-20

-10

0

10

20pp

b

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

HTRAVTRACHEMCLDSDDEPZero line O3 Conc.

49

Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

IPR of SFC O3 (current)

ppb/

hr

-10

-5

0

5

10

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

IPR of SFC O3 (A1B)

ppb/

hr-10

-5

0

5

10

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

IPR of SFC O3 (met_only)

ppb/

hr

-10

-5

0

5

10

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)

ppb/

hr

-2

-1

0

1

2

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)

ppb/

hr

-2

-1

0

1

2

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

50

Process Analysis for PBL Ozone

IPR of PBL O3 (current)

ppb/

hr

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

IPR of PBL O3 (A1B)

ppb/

hr-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)

ppb/

hr

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

IPR of PBL O3 (met_only)

ppb/

hr

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)

ppb/

hr

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP

51

(ppb)

Region S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. R.O.Korea

A1B 16.77 16.01 13.62 16.29 17.14 16.09

met_only 6.94 7.23 5.06 7.39 7.95 7.08

AREA

S. D. C. C. K. W. Y. N. H. N. S. Kor

CO

NC

EN

TR

AT

ION

(pp

b)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Current A1B met_only

Mean Maximum 8-hr O3 concentration (Difference)

52

(ppb)

Region S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. R.O.Korea

A1B 20.22 20.48 19.86 23.73 25.81 22.73

met_only 8.08 10.43 5.91 11.41 14.07 10.75

AREA

S. D. C. C. K. W. Y. N. H. N. S. Kor

DA

Y

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Current A1B met_only

Frequency of 8-hr O3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb

53

C-R Function

popratemortalitycrudeObMortality 301.0Δ

b : The increasing ratio of premature deaths in RoK ΔO3 : The difference of max. 8-hr ozone con. btwn future and present

Pop : Population

- The mortality effect of increased ozone concentration on the population

of

RoK was estimated using the C-R (Concentration-Response) function.

Premature deaths due to ozone increase

54

Estimated Mortality effect due to increased Max. 8-hr O3 concentration

AREA

S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N.

¥ÄM

orta

lity

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

A1B met_only Regions

Premature deaths

A1B Met_only

SD 1,595 897

CC 504 274

KW 163 85

YN 1236 688

HN 662 350

RoK 4,160 2,294

- In was estimated that the total no. of premature deaths sue to increased ozone concentrations in the future (2055) compared with present (1995) is 4,160 under climate change (A1B case), and 2,294 under meteorology change alone.

Estimation of premature deaths

55

1. Future climate in ROK from the A1B scenario

Temperature : increase 1.54 of mean max. temp.℃

PPTN : increase 76.7mm

Wind : west → southwest

Specific humidity : increase

PBL : decrease 11m of max. mean PBL

2. The impact of climate change on regional scale air quality was evaluated under the SRES AB1 scenario.

Met_olny : increase 6.1ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA

A1B : increase 14.4ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA

4. Summary4. Summary

56

3. Frequency of 8-hr O3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb (NAAQS)

Met_only : 22.73

A1B : 10.75

4. Ozone concentration will be increased even if human activi-ties continue as they are, not to mention under the future emissions.

5. Process Analysis

The effect of advection related to meteorology is relatively dominant

rather than the other factors

4. Summary4. Summary

57

Thank you for your attention