The Role Of Human

Bias In OurAnalys

is And Decision-

Making Accuracy

圖資三 張雅婷

圖資三 鄭文音

Cognitive BiasBase rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effectExperimenter's or Expectation biasIllusion of control , Impact biasInformation bias, Irrational escalation

Cognitive BiasBase rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effectExperimenter's or Expectation biasIllusion of control , Impact biasInformation bias, Irrational escalation

Groupthink

Blindspots

Groupthink

Cause of Groupthink

A desire to avoid being seen as foolish

A desire to avoid embarrassing or angering

A culture that mutes risk-taking

other members of the group

Challenger

All member felt obligated to live up to the group “norms”

Any suggestion that would lead to a delay was rejected.

Employees conducted private conversation are underhigh stress and concerned about losing future

Other tragic resultAttack on Pearl Harbor

Vietnam War

Korean War

Invasion of Iraq

“I’m not interested in groupthink!”

Blindspots

Types of Blindspots

Unchallenged assumptions

Corporate myths

Corporate taboos

Top 3 Tech Howlers

The iPod will never take off.

There is no reason for any individualto have a computer in his home.

Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years. ?

Top 3 Tech Howlers

The iPod will never take off.

There is no reason for any individualto have a computer in his home.

Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.

Ken Olsen

The CEO and founder of DEC

Have strong opinions about PC

Corporate myth

Call in external resources or outside experts to review your work

1.

Have someone you trust review your work

2.

3. Keep an open mind Question everything

Think objectively byplacing yourself in the position of an outsider

4.

5. Get in the habit ofquestioning all assumptions

Play devil’s advocate if necessary.

6.

Have two teams work on the same request7.

Do not hold a personal attachment or assign over-important to your own recommendation

8.

9. Rotate roles and responsibilities within your competitive intelligence team

10.As a manager try and hold your opinions to yourself

T.HANKS