Top 8 Transformative Technology Predictions for 2018 · consumers for operators and app developers All of this data now makes the car a vulnerable device with ... Smart Speaker Tablet

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany

Tom Morrod, Vice President, Technology, Media & Telecoms

+44 7794 274 079, [email protected]

Top 8 Transformative Technology Predictionsfor 2018


Transformative technologies

2

• Coming together in new, powerful ways

• Driving innovations that disrupt industries

• Fundamentally changing businessesWhat do transformative technologies mean for the

automotive industry in the near and long term?

How are transformative technologies creating

changing transportation and logistics?

How are transformative technologies converging to

reinvent the car?

Top 8 Transformative Technology predictions for 2018 / February 2018


Top transformative technologies for 2018

Connectivity

Blockchain Robots & DronesMachine Vision Ubiquitous Video

IoT AI Cloud & Virtualization


3


IHS Markit 8 key transformative technologies for 2018

Industry innovations in autonomous vehicles,

infotainment, natural language processing, and

augmented reality, security and access

AI

IoT

Compounding adoption of analytics-driven IoT

platforms, computing at the edge, and data

exchange brokerages (DEBs) 40B IoT devices at the edge between 2018 and 2025

Cloud &

Virtualization

Services enabling improved machine learning

and AI, radically transforming business’ usage

and understanding of data

$343B

CY 2021$124B

CY 2016

Off-Premises Cloud Services Market – 22% CAGR


4

AI in new vehicles ADAS or infotainment systems

2015 & 2025


IHS Markit 8 key transformative technologies for 2018

5

A host of other iterations of LTE,

from Cat 1 to Gigabit LTE, will serve

consumer, enterprise, and IoT use

cases before and after 5G is

commercially launched

From facial recognition software to

self-driving cars, advanced robotics,

and surveillance, this technology will

accelerate innovation across multiple

industries

Connectivity Computer vision

Ubiquitous video

Continued consumption of video,

to alter strategies in multiple

markets not directly tied to video or

display supply chains

The potential of robots and

drones to transform long-

standing business models

Robots & drones

Blockchain-based services

beyond financial services are

already being deployed and will

continue to grow

Blockchain



Convergent technology cycles cause long-term industry-wide transformations

There is a new wave of transformative technologies with the potential to significantly impact the world

around us. The rate at which we see these technologies take hold has grown rapidly in recent years.

6



IoT

AI

Cloud

Convergence of transformative technologies accelerates changeAs different transformative technologies come together, impact goes from linear to exponential

IoT

CloudIoT

A fundamental enabler: connectivity has driven

digitization in consumer, commercial and industrial

markets for over 20 years

A critical tool for achieving scale: with maturing and

increasingly sophisticated IoT implementations, cloud

storage and analytics have become critical

Essentials for data collection: companies are focusing

on how they can manage and utilize all of the data they

collect with deep learning, machine learning and AI

Connectivity

A driver of efficiency and productivity: many

industries have realized significant improvements

through embedded processing, connectivity and sensors

Connectivity

Connectivity

Connectivity


7


Why do we care about this?

8


Why do we care about this?

Because convergent technology is

now impacting the automotive

industry

9


POLL QUESTION!

2018 New Year’s Briefing

10

Over the next 20 years where does technology innovation shift the

balance of power?

Consumers (individuals)

Car manufacturers and tier 1s

Platforms (i.e. Google)

Telecom operator

Governments and municipalities (shared economy)

Access this poll on the event app!

https://api.cvent.com/polling/v1/api/polls/sp4rf4mk

https://api.cvent.com/polling/v1/api/polls/sp4rf4mk


The average value of electronic systems per car is growing at over 5% CAGR to

over $1,600 by 2022

7%

3%

2%

5%

5.7% CAGR (2016 – 22)


This new technology enables new features,

but also creates new risks

12

Content through vehicle makes

car a multi-use device for

consumer (like smartphone)

Car becomes new

channel to reach

consumers for

operators and app

developers All of this data now makes the

car a vulnerable device with

critical implications

Driver more involved with

data will customize system

upgrades

Telematics

Data vendors

Infotainment

Securing the car



Connectivity is being widely deployed into cars directly, via OBDs and being

brought in by consumer devices

13

Connectivity is being integrated into cars to support

in-vehicle entertainment, provide information about

traffic conditions, monitor engine performance and

enable the car to respond to its surrounding

environment.

America27%

EMEA27%

APAC46%

In 2018, an estimated 65Mconnectable

devices in the connected car

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2018 2030

Insta

lled

ba

se (

mill

ion

s)

Automotive - ADAS and others Infotainment




14

Connectivity has moved focus from broadcasting, to streaming, to always-on high-

bandwidth

Telematics by broadband generation: 2016 Telematics by broadband generation: 2023


While automotive may not have the scale of other connected devices, it is now

becoming part of the same broader ecosystem

15


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Connected consumer devices (B)

Smart Speaker Tablet Smartphone PC Games Console DMA Smart TV


We can see this reflected in the positioning of in-vehicle app platforms and the

increasing positioning of telcos as intermediary telematics platform providers

16

10M companion

apps

361 models

26 OEMs

28 suppliers

100+ apps

455 models

27 OEMs

36 countries

Dozens of apps

164 models

7 OEMs

Kawasaki and

Yamaha

148 models

15 suppliers

11 domestic

branches

14 international

brands



The brief history of internet platform companies is defined by reach, and

automotive represents a new location and completely untapped dataset

0

1

2

3

Am

azo

n -

cu

sto

me

rs

Ap

ple

- a

ctive

iO

Sd

evic

es

De

uts

ch

e T

ele

kom

-cu

sto

me

rs

Fa

ce

bo

ok -

MA

Us

Go

ogle

- a

ctive

An

dro

idd

evic

es

Lin

e -

MA

Us

Mic

roso

ft -

Offic

e u

se

rs

Ora

ng

e -

cu

sto

me

rs

Te

lefo

nic

a -

acce

sse

s

Te

nce

nt -

We

Ch

at M

AU

s

Platform reach (users or customers) - billions


Reach confers access to large-scale datasets, which can then be further mined for

patterns and trends

18


Data volume

Code complexity

Artificial Intelligence

Machine LearningNeural Net

Deep Learning


AI use-cases can be leveraged as an entry point for new players into the

automotive industry

19


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Sh

ipm

en

ts (

M)

In-car AI & deep learning systems (millions)

Infotainment (Speech) Infotainment (Gesture)

Infotainment (Assistant) ADAS (Freespace + limited object detection)

ADAS (Object detection)


To provide scale the automotive opportunity is projected to develop at a similar

pace to the smart home opportunity

Report Name / Month 2017

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sh

ipm

en

ts (

M)

Smart speaker shipments by platform (millions)

Amazon Alexa Google Assistant Apple Siri Other


And the broader scale has already been developed in the smartphone market

0

1

2

3

4

5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Insta

lled

Ba

se

(B

)

Voice assistant capable smartphones (billions)

Apple - Siri Google - Assistant Microsoft - Cortana Samsung - Bixby


Car becomes

technology platform

& data nodes

Connected car

generates big data

2015-20202010-2015

So what we’ve seen already is the transition from the car as a technology platform

to the car as an data-generating connected device


2025 &

Beyond

Car becomes

technology platform

& data nodes

Connected car

generates big data

Autonomous

transportation starts

to become a reality

Transportation

industry undergoes

paradigm shift

2020-20252015-20202010-2015

But technology convergence will have further meaningful, and long-term, impacts

on the industry


2025 &

Beyond

Car becomes

technology platform

& data nodes

Connected car

generates big data

Autonomous


to become a reality

Transportation

industry undergoes

paradigm shift

2020-20252015-20202010-2015


on the industry


2025 &

Beyond

Car becomes

technology platform

& data nodes

Connected car

generates big data

Autonomous


to become a reality

Transportation

industry undergoes

paradigm shift

2020-20252015-20202010-2015


on the industry


2025 &

Beyond

Car becomes

technology platform

& data nodes

Connected car

generates big data

Autonomous


to become a reality

Transportation

industry undergoes

paradigm shift

2020-20252015-20202010-2015


on the industry


So what are the key future trends we are looking for in this transition?

27

What is the car? AI key to development for autonomous car

How is the car used? Robots and drones impact transport and logistics

How is the environment impacted? Smart cities



Smartticketing

Smartparking

Intelligent transport

Vehicle communication

Key applications within the smart city are influenced by transformative technology

and autonomous vehicles

Deployment of 'smart

tickets' for the purpose of

improved transportation

28

Deployment of sensors to

detect the presence of a

vehicle in a parking space

to reduce congestion.

Deployment of sensors or

crowdsourcing to collect data

on vehicle traffic.

Vehicle-to-vehicle or

vehicle-to-infrastructure

communication to improve

safety.



Smart city is already driving the development of the next definition of transportation

29

81

16

65 56

25.8% of projects:

The US is the leading

market for mobility and

transport.

Latin America is

developing more slowly,

but has potential for the

integration of mobility

and security projects.

28.4% of projects:

The EU’s funding and environmental

goals shape the dynamics of the

region.

22.5% of projects:

Early-stage development with

oases of mobility and transport

leadership, such as Dubai.

25.8% of projects: Rapid

urbanization and the

growing need to improve

mobility will drive market

growth. Competition

among leading cities will

increase momentum.


IHS Markit Customer Care

[email protected]

Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)

Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300

Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is confidential. Any unauthorized use, disclosure, reproduction, or dissemination, in full or in part, in any media or by any means, without the prior written permission of IHS Markit Ltd. or any of its affiliates ("IHS Markit") is

strictly prohibited. IHS Markit owns all IHS Markit logos and trade names contained in this presentation that are subject to license. Opinions, statements, estimates, and projections in this presentation (including other media) are solely those of the individual author(s) at the

time of writing and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of IHS Markit. Neither IHS Markit nor the author(s) has any obligation to update this presentation in the event that any content, opinion, statement, estimate, or projection (collectively, "information") changes or

subsequently becomes inaccurate. IHS Markit makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information in this presentation, and shall not in any way be liable to any recipient for any inaccuracies or omissions. Without

limiting the foregoing, IHS Markit shall have no liability whatsoever to any recipient, whether in contract, in tort (including negligence), under warranty, under statute or otherwise, in respect of any loss or damage suffered by any recipient as a result of or in connection with

any information provided, or any course of action determined, by it or any third party, whether or not based on any information provided. The inclusion of a link to an external website by IHS Markit should not be understood to be an endorsement of that website or the site's

owners (or their products/services). IHS Markit is not responsible for either the content or output of external websites. Copyright © 2018, IHS MarkitTM. All rights reserved and all intellectual property rights are retained by IHS Markit.


Documents

Top 8 Transformative Technology Predictions for 2018 · consumers for operators and app developers All of this data now makes the car a vulnerable device with ... Smart Speaker Tablet