Topologi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum

Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Vbtmne Xl i lLhlomor 1, 1995

Topologi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum

Edison Hulu

Abstract

The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is a class of models that has been used with increasing frequency to the problems of structural adjustment, trade strategy, income distribution, and others. This model has become standard fare of both academic researchers and developing country policy making units. CGE models analyze the interaction of various economic actors across markets, as specified in neoclassical general equilibrium theory. Behavior is based on optimization derived from microeconomics theory, and the model is fully closed in the supply and demand sides of all market specified. CGE models are not only complicated but also require too much data. The result of the model cannot be trusted because the parameters are not econometrically estimated. They give us counter intuitive results but the models cannot be understood by the uninitiated.

The main purpose of this paper is to explain how to construct a simple-comprehensive CGE model. This paper divides into eight parts. In Part 1 the author introduces a brief history of the development of the CGE models since 19S0's. Under closed economy condition CGE models of which one consumer, non-linear utility function, linear constraint function, two production sectors will explain in Part 2 and 3. In Part 4 the author shows how to construct a CGE which includes international trade. A CGE model of whith two consumers will be discussed in Part 6. The relationship between the input-output models and CGE models will be discussed in Part 7 conclusions will be summarized in Part 8.

The

55

Hulu

I . P E N D A H U L U A N

M o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m (general equilibrium model) d a p a t d i i l u s t r a s i k a n s e b a g a i j e m b a t a n p e n g h u b u n g a n t a r a m o d e l e k o n o m i m a k r o d a n m i k r o . M e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m , a n a l i s i s d a m p a k k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i m a k r o d a n k e b i j a k a n m i k r o d a p a t d i l a k u k a n s e c a r a s e r e n t a k . R o b i n s o n ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n g e m u k a k a n b a h w a m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m a d a l a h s e b u a h m o d e l e k o n o m i y a n g p a l i n g r e l e v a n d a l a m p e n g a n a l i s i s a n d a m p a k k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h j i k a k i n e r j a p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a c e n d e r u n g m e n g a n u t s i s t i m p a s a r b e b a s , a t a u p e r a n m e k a n i s m e p a s a r d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a c e n d e r u n g s e m a k i n d o m i n a n .

P e n g e m b a n g a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m d i m u l a i d a r i f o r m u l a s i t e o r e t i k s e j a k p e r t e n g a h a n a b a d k e - 1 9 , a n t a r a l a i n r u m u s a n G o s s e n ( 1 8 5 4 ) , J e v o n s ( 1 8 7 1 ) , W a l r a s ( 1 8 7 4 - 1 8 7 7 ) , d a n M e n g e r ( 1 8 7 1 ) . A b r a h a m W a l d ( 1 9 3 0 - a n ) , C a s s e l ( 1 9 3 0 - a n ) , w a l a u p u n m a s i h b e l u m l e n g k a p p e m b u k t i a n e s k s i s t e n s i s o l u s i , t e t a p i b e r b a s i l m e n y u s u n . f o r m u l a s i m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m s e b a g a i s e b u a h m o d e l s i m u l t a n v e r s i W a l r a s . K e m u d i a n , J o h n v o n N e u m a n n m e m b u k t i k a n b a h w a k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m " a d a " m e m a k a i s e b u a h m o d e l d a n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i • t u n g g a l . J o h n H i c k s d a n O s c a r L a n g e m e n y u s u n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m v e r s i m a k r o e k o n o m i K e y n e s i a n , y a i t u p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a d i b a g i e m p a t b u a h p a s a r , y a i t u p a s a r b a r a n g , b a r a n g u a n g , p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a , p a s a r m o d a l ( s o l u s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m m e n g g u n a k a n a s u m s i W a l r a s , y a i t u a n d a i k a n a d a n b u a h p a s a r , d a n j i k a n-\ b u a h p a s a r s u d a h b e r a d a d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n m a k a s e l u r u h « p a s a r s u d a h b e r a d a d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n ) . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 5 0 - a n , A r r o w , D e b r e u , d a n M c K e n z i e b e r b a s i l m e m b u k t i k a n b a h w a m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m , s e c a r a t e o r i t i s d i b u k t i k a n " a d a " , m e m i l i k i s o l u s i t u n g g a l , d a n s t a b i l .

S e j a l a n d e n g a n i t u , d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 3 0 - 1 9 5 0 - a n c u k u p p e s a t p e r k e m b a n g a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n (applied general equilibrium model), s e p e r t i m o d e l i n p u t - o u t p u t L e o n t i e f ( 1 9 3 0 - a n ) , d a n m o d e l n e r a c a s o s i a l e k o n o m i a t a u social accounting matrix ( S A M ) . P e r l u d i j e l a s k a n b a h w a m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n b u k a n l a h a p l i k a s i d a r i m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e o r i t i s h a s i l r u m u s a n s e p e r t i y a n g t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n d i a t a s . W a l a u p u n d e m i k i a n , p a d a p a d a p e r i o d e s e t e l a h t a h u n 1 9 5 0 - a n , d a t a p e n d u k u n g m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n ( s e p e r t i d a t a i n p u t - o u t p u t , ' d a n S A M ) d a p a t d i m a n f a a t k a n s e b a g a i p e n d u k u n g m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n .

P e n e r a p a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e o r i t i s f o r m u l a s i A r r o w , D e b r e u , d a n M c K e n z i e d i s e b u t m o d e l Computable General Equibirum ( C G E ) . A d a t i g a c i r i p e n g e m b a n g a n m o d e l C G E . P e r t a m a , f o r m u l a s i C G E d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h J o h a n s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 6 0 , y a i t u m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n

56


u m u m d i s u s u n s e b a g a i s e b u a h m o d e l l i n i e r s i m u l t a n d a n d a r i s o l u s i m o d e l d i p e r o l e h h a r g a d a n k u a n t i t a s d a r i s e t i a p b a r a n g y a n g d i i d e n t i f i k a s i s e b a g a i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m . K e d u a , H e r b e r t S c a r f ( 1 9 7 0 ) m e r u m u s k a n p e n y e l e s a i a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m m e n g g u n a k a n "fixed point theorem". K e t i g a , A d e l m a n d a n R o b i n s o n ( 1 9 7 8 ) , m o d e l C G E d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i s e b u a h m o d e l s i m u l t a n n o n l i n i e r , d a n h a s i l p e n y e l e s a i a n (nonlinier programming solution) d i p e r o l e h h a r g a b a y a n g a n (shadow prices) y a n g d i i n t e r p r e t a s i s e b a g a i h a r g a d a l a m k o n d i s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m .

D a r i u r a i a n s i n g k a t d i a t a s d i k e t a h u i b a h w a m i n i m a l a d a t i g a a s p e k p e n t i n g d a l a m p e n g e m b a n g a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n , y a i t u ( i ) d a s a r p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m , ( i i ) t e h n i k p e r h i t u n g a n d a l a m m e n d a p a t k a n s o l u s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m , d a n ( i i i ) d a t a p e n d u k u n g .

P o k o k b a h a s a n d a l a m m a k a i a h i n i d i b a t a s i p a d a b u t i r ( i ) , y a i t u d a s a r p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m . B e b e r a p a d a s a r p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m y a n g a k a n d i p a p a r k a n d a l a m m a k a i a h i n i , y a i t u ( a ) m o d e l C G E - A , y a i t u d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n s u a t u n e g a r a h a n y a a d a s e o r a n g k o n s u m e n , f u n g s i u t i l i t i n o n l i n i e r , f u n g s i a n g g a r a n k o n s u m e n l i n i e r , d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i d e n g a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i n o n l i n i e r v e r s i C o b b - D o u g l a s ( b u k a n constant returns to scale), f u n g s i b i a y a l i n i e r , t a n p a a d a c a m p u r t a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h , d a n t a n p a h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l , ( b ) m o d e l C G E - B t i d a k j a u h b e r b e d a d e n g a n m o d e l C G E - A , t e t a p i p e r b e d a a n t e r l e t a k p a d a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a i t u m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s constant returns to scale), ( c ) m o d e l C G E - A C , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - A d i t a m b a h d e n g a n a d a n y a h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l , ( d ) m o d e l C G E - B C , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - B d i l e n g k a p i d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l , ( e ) m o d e l C G E - A C D , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - A C d i l e n g k a p i d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h , ( f ) m o d e l C G E - B C D , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - B C d i l e n g k a p i d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h , ( g ) m o d e l C G E - A C D 2 d a n C G E - B C D 2 a d a l a h m o d e l C G E - A C D d a n C G E - B C D d e n g a n p e m b e d a a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a m e n j a d i d u a k e l o m p o k a t a u d u a k o n s u m e n , d a n ( h ) m o d e l C G E - I O , y a i t u p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 h a s i l p e n y e s u a i a n d e n g a n m o d e l i n p u t - o u t p u t L e o n t i e f . T u l i s a n i n i d i t u t u p d e n g a n b e b e r a p a s a r a n u n t u k s t u d i l a n j u t a n .

I I . M O D E L C G E - A

A n d a i k a n s e b u a h r u m a h t a n g g a d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n s e b e s a r Y d a n m e r e n c a n a k a n m e n g k o n s u m s i d u a j e n i s b a r a n g y a i t u s e b a n y a k Cj d a n C 2 . H a r g a d a r i d u a j e n i s b a r a n g t e r s e b u t s e b e s a r P , d a n P2. F u n g s i u t i l i t i r u m a h t a n g g a (utility function) d i a n d a i k a n d a l a m s e b u a h p e r s a m a a n , y a i t u :

57

Hulu

H a r g a d a r i d u a j e n i s b a r a n g t e r s e b u t s e b e s a r Pj d a n F u n g s i u t i l i t i r u m a h t a n g g a {utility function) d i a n d a i k a n d a l a m s e b u a h p e r s a m a a n , y a i t u :

U = C , " C 2 ^ ( 2 . 2 )

d i m a n a ,

a = e l a s t i s i t a s u t i l i t i t e r h a d a p b a r a n g k e - 1 ,

P = e l a s t i s i t a s u t i l i t i t e r h a d a p b a r a n g k e - 2 . P e m b e l a n j a a n r u m a h t a n g g a d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m s e b u a h p e r s a m a a n , y a i t u :

y = P , C , + P 2 C 2 (2.2)

D a l a m m e m e n t u k a n j u m l a h s a t u a n b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i , r u m a h t a n g g a m e m p e r t i m b a n g k a n d u a h a l , y a i t u ( a ) u t i l i t i m a k s i r r i a l , d a n ( b ) m a m p u m e l a k u k a n p e m b e l i a n s e s u a i d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n y a n g d i m i l i k i r u m a h t a n g g a . K e d u a - d u a k r i t e r i a t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i s e d e r h a n a k a n d a l a m s e b u a h f u n g s i , y a i t u :

L = C , ' ' C 2 ^ - / l ( Y - P , C J - P 2 C 2 ) (2.3)

d i m a n a , A = a d a l a h p e n g g a n d a L a g r a n g i a n .

T u r u n a n p a r s i a l p e r t a m a L t e r h a d a p C j , C 2 d a n A., m e r u p a k a n s y a r a t c u k u p necessary condition d a l a m m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a t i n g k a t u t i l i t i r u m a h t a n g g a t e l a h m e n c a p a i m a k s i m a l . T u r u n a n t e r s e b u t a d a i a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

^ =aC,"-'Cf-APi =0 (2.4)

= liCfC^2.~' - ^ 2 = 0 (2.S)

= Y-P,QP,C,=0 (2.6)

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 4 ) , ( 2 . 5 ) , d a n ( 2 . 6 ) d i s e l e s a i k a n s e c a r a s e r e n t a k t e r h a d a p Cj d a n C 2 , m a k a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n r u m a h t a n g g a t e r h a d a p d u a j e n i s b a r a n g , y a i t u :

C, =7 ^ (2.7)

58


Q = r — [1.8)

D u a j e n i s b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a a d a l a h o u t p u t d a r i d u a j e n i s k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i y a n g d i b e r i n o t a s i X j d a n X i . D u a j e n i s i n p u t y a n g d i g u n a k a n p a d a s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , y a i t u m o d a l f X ) d a n t e n a g a k e r j a ( N ) . D a l a m m e m p r o d u k s i X j d i g u n a k a n i n p u t s e b a n y a k X j d a n N j , s e d a n g k a n d a l a m m e m p r o d u k s i X ? d i g u n a k a n i n p u t s e b a n y a k X 2 d a n N 2 . H a r g a p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t X s e b e s a r k d a n N ( t i n g k a t u p a h ) s e b e s a r w, d a n h a r g a i n p u t t i d a k b e r b e d a p a d a s e m u a j e n i s k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i .

T o t a l b i a y a d a l a m m e m p r o d u k s i X j d a n X i d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m p e r s a m a a n , y a i t u :

T C , = t X , + xvH^ (2.9)

TC, = kKi + u ' N i (2.10)

dan fungsi produksi, yaitu:

X , = X , ' " N / ' ( 2 . 1 2 )

X 2 = X 2 " - n/"- (2.12)

d i m a n a , a„ ih, bi, h,, a d a l a h m a r g i n a l p r o d u k d a r i d u a j e n i s i n p u t p a d a d u a j e n i s k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i .

D a l a m m e n e n t u k a n k u a n t i t a s i n p u t X d a n N y a n g d i g u n a k a n p a d a s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , p i h a k p r o d u s e n m e m p e r t i m b a n g k a n d u a h a l , yaitu (a) meminimumkan biaya kegiatan produksi, dan (b) tanpa mengubah tehnik produksi. Kedua-dua pertimbangan tersebut dinyatakan dalam persamaan Lagrangian, yaitu:

L, ^kKi + u ' N , + A , /X, - K,"' N/'/ (2.13)

Ll = WC, + w N i + A, / X 2 - K,"- N , " / (2.24)

di mana, y^ dan L^ adaiah pengganda Langrangian.

Turunan parsial pertama dari L, dan Li terhadap X , , N , , dan X^jNv, merupakan syarat cukup dalam menunjukkan bahwa total biaya kegiatan prcxluksi telah mencapai paling minimal. Untuk kegiatan produksi pertama, yaitu:

59

Hulu

fJI - ^ = k - a , X , K r N \ ' = 0 ( 2 . 1 i j

( 2 . 2 6 )

= Y , - / C ^ ' i V , " ' = 0 ^A,

d a n u n t u k k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e d u a , y a i t u :

t 3 L f ~ ^ k - a , A ^ K T - ' N T - = 0

( 2 . 2 7 )

(2.1H)

c U ^ ^ w - K A . K T - N X ' = 0 ( 2 . 7 9 )

d A , ( 2 . 2 0 )

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 1 5 ) , ( 2 . 1 6 ) , d a n ( 2 . 1 8 ) d i s e l e s a i k a n s e c a r a s e r e n t a k t e r h a d a p X j d a n N , , m a k a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r t a m a t e r h a d a p X d a n N , y a i t u :

X: (2.21)

( V . J M X, (2.22)

S e j a l a n d e n g a n i t u , j i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 1 8 ) , ( 2 . 1 9 ) , d a n ( 2 . 2 0 ) d i s e l e s a i k a n s e c a r a s e r e n t a k t e r h a d a p X ^ d a n N i , m a k a d i p e r o l e h p e r m i n t a a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e d u a t e r h a d a p X d a n N , y a i t u :

- - Xy- - (2.23)

60


a-, a , a^ +6,

(2.24)

D a l a m m e m e n t u k a n j u m l a h p e n a w a r a n b a r a n g k e - 1 d a n k e - 2 , p i h a k p r o d u s e n m e n g e h e n d a k i d u a s a s a r a n , y a i t u ( a ) m e n c a p a i l a b a m a k s i m u m , d a n ( b ) k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i t i d a k t e r g a n g g u s e s u a i d e n g a n k e m a m p u a n t e h n i k p r o d u k s i y a n g d i m i l i k i . L a b a y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m p e r s a m a a n b e r i k u t i n i : i

/7, = TR, - TC,

a = TRi - TCi

(2.25)

([.26)

d i m a n a , T R j d a n TR, a d a l a h t o t a l p e n e r i m a a n d a r i k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 d a n k e - 2 .

T o t a l p e n e r i m a a n p a d a s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i a d a l a h h a s i l p e r k a l i a n a n t a r a h a r g a p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t p r o d u k s i d a n k u a n t i t a s p e n i u a l a n ( t o t a l p r o d u k s i ) , a t a u :

TR, =P,X,

TRi = Pi-Xi

(2.27)

k-lk)

d i m a n a , X j d a n X 2 a d a l a h k u a n t i t a s p e n j u a l a n ( t o t a l p r o d u k s i ) u n t u k k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 d a n k e - 2 .

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 9 ) , ( 2 . 2 7 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 5 ) , d a n p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 1 0 ) , ( 2 . 2 8 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 6 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

n, = P , X , - UK, - w N ,

7 7 , = P , - X , - feX, - w N i

(2.29)

(2.30)

S e l a n j u t n y a , j i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 1 ) , ( 2 . 2 2 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 9 ) , d a n p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 . 3 ) , ( 2 . 2 4 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 0 ) , m a k a d i p e r o l e h :

U, = P,X,-k V b , k y

- H ' b,k

X, (2.31)

61

Hulu

\ b , k y - ^ Xy - w X, ' (2.32

S y a r a t c u k u p p e m a k s i m i s a s i l a b a , u n t u k k e d u a - d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i . y a i t u :

X, 1 _ = 0 (2.33)

X. - = 0 (2.34)

a t a u :

P:-ajw

\ b , k y i k k

l-(o,+fc,)

X, = 0

(2.35)

1

a , + R ^ b ^ k ]

\ R k j

0.,=*., X , " ' = 0 (2.36)

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 5 ) d a n ( 2 . 3 6 ) d i s e l e s a i k a n t e r h a d a p X , d a n X , , m a k a d i p e r o l e h :

1

( a , + b , )

( b , k ^ + W

\ b , k j

( 2 . 3 7 )

62


Xy = R

1 + W

\Rky

l-(a2+ij)

( 2 . 3 8 )

P e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 7 ) d a n ( 2 . 3 8 ) a d a l a h f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n t e r h a d a p d u a j e n i s b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a .

D a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a , k u a n t i t a s p r o d u k s i y a i t u X , d a n X 2 , d a n k u a n t i t a s p e r m i n t a a n y a i t u C, d a n Q . K e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r b a r a n g {commodity markets) y a i t u :

X , = C ;

X , = Q

(2.39)

(i.40)

F u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p i n p u t K d a n N t e l a h d i t u n j u k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 1 ) , ( 2 . 2 2 ) , ( 2 . 2 3 ) , d a n ( 2 . 2 4 ) , d a n f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n d i a n d a i k a n . s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n . K e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r i n p u t {factor of prodcution markets), y a i t u :

N , + N , = N

K, + K2 = K

(2.41)

(2.42)

P e n d a p a t a n k o n s u m e n d i p e r o l e h d a r i b a l a s j a s a t e n a g a k e r j a d a n m o d a l , s e r t a k e u s a h a w a n a n ( l a b a ) , a t a u :

Y=k(K, +K2)+w(L,+L2)+n, +772

d a n l a b a p e r u s a b a a n , y a i t u :

77, =P,X,-kK, -wL,

12.43)

'2.44)

772 ^PiXi-kKi - who (2.45)

W a l a u p u n b a n y a k u r a i a n y a n g t e l a h d i p a p a r k a n d i a t a s , n a m u n t i a n y a b e b e r a p a i n f o r m a s i y a n g d i p e r l u k a n d a l a m p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l C G F - A , y a i t u : ( a ) f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n k o n s u m e n , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 7 ) d a n ( 2 . 8 ) , ( b ) f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p f a k t o r p r o d u k s i , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 1 ) , ( 2 . 2 2 ) , ( 2 . 2 3 ) , d a n ( 2 . 2 4 ) , ( c ) f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n b a r a n g y a n g d i p e r l u k a n

63

Hulu

k o n s u m e n , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 7 ) d a n ( 2 . 3 8 ) , ( d ) k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r b a r a n g , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 9 ) d a n ( 2 . 4 0 ) , ( e ) k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r f a k t o r p r o d u k s i , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 4 1 ) d a n ( 2 . 4 2 ) , ( 0 p e r s a m a a n p e n d a p a t a n k o n s u m e n , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 4 3 ) , d a n ( g ) p e r s a m a a n l a b a , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 4 4 ) d a n ( 2 . 4 5 ) .

U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - A a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Y

a

(A.l)

(A.2)

a^w (A.3)

X u — L _

• ^ 1 (A.4)

r \ l>2 __]__

" • X , • • (A.S)

X , = - - x , ' - {A.6)

1

\ h , k ) 4 - W

b^k a,+6,

(A.7)

6 4


p.

1 QyW

\ p k j

\X^Xh)

Q = X ,

K , + X2 = X

N , + N,= N

Y+k(Kj +K2)+w(N, +N,) + n, +7/2

77, = P,X,-kK,-wN,

772 =£2X2-1^(2- ' N2

(A.8)

(A.9)

(A. 10)

(A.11)

(A.12)

(A.13)

(A.14)

(A.1S)

M o d e l C G E - A t e r d i r i d a r i 1 5 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . V a r i a b e l e n d o g e n ( v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i ) s e b a n y a k 1 5 b u a h , y a i t u : C„ C i , X,, X2, K,, K2, N„ N , , Pp P I , tv, d a n k, Y, U,, d a n n 2 - V a r i a b e l K d a n N a d a i a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n . K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a p e n y e l e s a i a n m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l (unique solution). B e s a r a n d a r i s e t i a p v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n ( h a s i l s o l u s i m o d e l ) m e n u n j u k k a n k o n d i s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m .

3. M O D E L C G E - B

I n d i k a t o r e k o n o m i y a n g t e r c a k u p d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B t i d a k b e r b e d a d e n g a n y a n g t e l a h d i p a p a r k a n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - A . P e r b e d a a n t e r l e t a k p a d a b e n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i . J i k a m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m i l i k i c i r i p u l a n g a n h a s i l t e t a p (constant returns to scale), m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( A 7 ) d a n ( A . S ) t i d a k m e m i l i k i s o l u s i (trivial solution), p a d a g i l i r a n n y a m o d e l C G E - A s e c a r a k e s e i u r u h a n t i d a k m u n g k i n d i p e r o l e h s o l u s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m b a g i s e t i a p i n d i k a t o r e k o n o m i . S e h u b u n g a n d e n g a n i t u , d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B d i p a p a r k a n b a g a i m a n a p r o s e s

6 5

Hulu

p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l j i k a m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m i l i k i c i r i p u l a n g a n h a s i l t e t a p , d a n d i j a m i n d i p e r o l e h s o l u s i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m .

F u n g s i p r o d u k s i p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 1 1 ) d a n ( 2 . 1 2 ) d i u b a h b e n t u k n y a ( d i s e s u a i k a n d e n g a n c i r i p u l a n g a n h a s i l t e t a p ) m e n j a d i :

X , = X , ' " X / " ' " ( 3 . 1 )

X , = X / ^ X , ' " ' ' = (3.2)

K e m u d i a n , p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 ) d i b a g i d e n g a n X, d a n p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 ) d i b a g i d e n g a n X2, s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

X, (3.3)

X , (3.4)

S e j a l a n d e n g a n i t u , p e r s a m a a n (2 .9) d i b a g i d e n g a n X , d a n ( 2 . 1 0 ) d i b a g i d e n g a n X2, s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

TC, , N.

X, X , X ,

vfX..^ ,x,^ X X ,

(3.5)

(3.6)

F u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p K d a n N d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n m e m i n i m u m k a n b i a y a p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 5 ) d a n ( 3 . 6 ) k e n d a l a p e m i n i m u m a n d i g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 3 ) d a n ( 3 . 4 ) u n t u k d u a j e n i s k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i . U n t u k k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 , y a i t u :

V , = k ( ^ ) + w i ^ ) + M:

X , A ,

d a n u n t u k p r o d u k s i k e - 2 , y a i t u :

j _ X ^ i-«,5 ( 3 . 7 )

X. Xy 1 -

KX-Ny (3.8)

66


d i m a n a , fi, d a n p2 a d a l a h p e n g g a n d a l a g r a n g i a n .

T u r u n a n p a r s i a l p e r t a m a d a r i V , d a n t e r h a d a p K,, N,, d a n KT, N?, a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

a . X / ' - ' X , ' - " ' ^

X , = 0

3/, X , X , = 0

= 1 -X ,

= 0 1 7

X , - y " 2

fa,X°^-'X, ' '^0

X , = 0

^ 2 _ ^' 32. X.

' ( l - a , ) X " - X j - - - ' | ^

X , 0

Z?yU, X , = 0

( 3 . 9 )

( 3 . 1 0 )

( 3 . 1 1 )

( 3 . 1 2 )

( 3 . 1 3 )

( 3 . 1 4 )

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 9 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 0 ) , m a k a d i p e r o l e h k a i t a n a n t a r a K, d a n N j , y a i t u :

a , w

k X , ( 3 . 1 5 )

d a n k e m u d i a n d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 1 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 t e r h a d a p K d a n N , y a i t u :

x,= t , 5 "1

a, k ( 3 . 1 6 )

67

Hulu

a, w (3.17)

S e j a l a n d e n g a n i t u , p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 2 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 3 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

^ 2 = 02 W

V l - a , kJ (3.18)

d a n k e m u d i a n , d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 4 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 2 t e r h a d a p K d a n N , y a i t u :

X, = 02 k U - o , wj

X, ( 3 . 1 9 )

X, = 3 5 '-"2

a. If VI-cr, kJ

X, ( 3 . 2 0 )

F u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p K d a n N p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 6 ) , ( 3 . 1 7 ) , ( 3 . 1 9 ) , d a n ( 3 . 2 0 ) d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e n d e k a t a n p e m i n i m u m a n b i a y a r a t a - r a t a p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t o u t p u t p a d a s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i . A n d a i k a n <J), = X , / X , , <t>2 = X 2 / X 2 , v p , = N j / X j , d a n x p i = N 2 / X 2 , s e h i n g g a f u n g s i r a t a - r a t a b i a y a p a l i n g m i n i m a l p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t o u t p u t t e r h a d a p K d a n N , a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

')-0,k' V a, W2

( 3 . 2 1 )

0,= a, w * j

1-0,

( 3 . 2 2 )

4 ' , = 1 - a, * 1

V rit w.

03

( 3 . 2 3 )

F ^ '""2 a, w

U - a - k, (3.24)

68

T o p o l o g i M o d e l K o m p u t a s i K e s e i m b a n g a n Umum

S e l a n j u t n y a , p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 6 ) d a n ( 3 . 1 7 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 2 9 ) , s e r t a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 1 9 ) d a n ( 3 . 2 0 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 3 0 , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i l a b a d a r i d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , y a i t u ;

p,-k

Pz-k

a, w

1 - a , T .

a . w

1 - a, k^

V a , w J X ,

l - a , k W

k \<22 V a . w J

X .

( 3 . 2 5 )

( 3 . 2 6 )

T u r u n a n p a r s i a l p e r t a m a l a b a t e r h a d a p o u t p u t ( X j d a n X 2 ) p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 5 ) d a n ( 3 . 2 6 ) , a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

= p - k a, w v l - « , k y

- w 1 - a , k

\ a , w J = 0

= P , - k 02 W \ - a . k

- w = 0 V, a , w ;

(3.27)

(3.28)

P e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 7 ) d a n ( 3 . 2 8 ) m a s i n g - m a s i n g d i s e l e s a i k a n t e r h a d a p P, d a n P 2 ) s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

a , w 1 - a, ^ - w

\ a , w ;

P , = i t l - a .

-Vf l - f l T j A:

V " 2 a , w J

= 0

= 0

'3.29)

'3.30)

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 1 ) d a n ( 3 . 2 2 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 9 ) , s e r t a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 2 3 ) d a n ( 3 . 2 4 ) d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 3 0 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h :

PJ = k 0 j +wy/i

Pi = k02 +wy/2

3.31)

•3.32)

P e r s a m a a n ( 3 . 3 1 ) d a n ( 3 . 3 2 ) a d a l a h f u n g s i h a r g a p e n a w a r a n p e r s a t u

69

Hulu

s a t u a n u n i t o u t p u t , b a i k Xj m a u p u n X 2 .

M e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d e n g a n c i r i p u l a n g a n h a s i l t e t a p , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - B t e r d i r i d a r i 1 7 b u a h p e r s a m a a n , l e b i h b a n y a k d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n m o d e l C G E - A , a t a u u n t u k l e b i h j e l a s d i j a b a r k a n d a l a m u r a i a n b e r i k u t i n i .

0 + -)Pi a

(BA)

(B.2)

PJ = k0j +wy/i

P2 = k02 +WI//2

CJ =XJ

C2 =X2

(B.3)

(BA)

(B.5)

(B,6)

Nj = l-Oj k

V a, wy XJ (B.7)

N2 = F 1 I A "2

1-02 k V 02 W ;

X. (B.8)

a, vf X , (B.9)

a. w

\-a. k X , (B.IO)

70


F 1 1 5 " '

1 - a, k \ a, w j

I -a ,

(t>2 =

1 - a , A j

A ^

a. w )

a-. w

k

K, +K, = K

N, +N2 = N

(BAl)

(B.12)

(B.13)

(BA4)

(BAS)

(BA6)

(BA7) Y = k(K, + K2) + w(Nj+N2)

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - B t e r d a p a t 1 7 b u a h v a r i a b e l e n g o d e n , y a i t u Cp C., Xp X , , Kp K , , Np H , , 0 p 02, y/p y/,, Pp P , , k, u; d a n Y, s e r t a d u a b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n y a i t u V a r i a b e l K d a n N . K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a j u m l a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , m a k a m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l .

4 . M O D E L C G E D E N G A N K E G I A T A N E K O N O M I I N T E R N A S I O N A L

D a l a m m o d e l C G E y a n g d i p a p a r k a n p a d a b a g i a n i n i , i n d i k a t o r e k o n o m i b a i k d a l a m m o d e l C G E - A m a u p u n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B m a s i h t e t a p d i g u n a k a n , k e m u d i a n d i t a m b a h d e n g a n a n d a i a n b a h w a p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a t e l a h m e l a k u k a n h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l , y a i t u t r a n s a k s i e k s p o r d a n i m p o r .

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - A a t a u C G E - B t e l a h d i j e l a s k a n b a h w a k u a n t i t a s p e n a w a r a n b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a d a l a m n e g e r i y a i t u s e b a n y a k d a n X ^ . S e b u a h n e g a r a d i m u n g k i n k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n u t i l i t i

r u m a h t a n g g a , s e k a l i p u n k u a n t i t a s p e n g g u n a a n s u m b e r d a y a e k o n o m i r e l a t i f t i d a k b e r b e d a , b a i k s e b e l u m m a u p u n s e s i i d a h m e l a k u k a n h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l . M e n u r u t t e o r i k e u n t u n g a n b e r b a n d i n g (theory of

71

Hulu

comparative advantage), k a r e n a a d a n y a p e r b e d a a n t i n g k a t u p a h , p r o d u k t i v i t a s , t e k n o l o g i , s u m b e r d a y a a l a m , d a n b e r b a g a i i n d i k a t o r e k o n o m i l a i n n y a , s e h i n g g a s e b u a h n e g a r a d a p a t m e m i l i h s u a t u j e n i s k o m o d i t i y a n g d i p r o d u k s i s u p l u s ( k u a n t i t a s p r o d u k s i l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r m i n t a a n ) j i k a d i p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a k o m i d i t i t e r s e b u t l e b i h u n g g u l d i l i h a t d a r i s e g i i n d i k a t o r h a r g a p e r s a t u a n s a t u a n u n i t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n n e g a r a l a i n . K e l e b i h a n p r o d u k s i d a p a t d i e k s p o r k e l u a r n e g e r i . D i s a m p i n g i t u , u n t u k k o m o d i t i y a n g d i p e r k i r a k a n t i d a k m e m i l i k i k e u n g g u l a n , m a k a t i n g k a t p r o d u k s i d i b i a r k a n d e f i s i t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k u a n t i t a s p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i , k e k u r a n g a n p e m e n u h a n p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i d i i m p o r d a r i l u a r n e g e r i .

A n d a i k a n b a h w a k o m o d i t i k e - 1 m e m i l i k i k e u n g g u l a n b e r b a n d i n g d a n k o m p o d i t i k e - 2 t i d a k m e m i l i k i k e u n g g a l a n b e r b a n d i n g , d e n g a n d e m i k i a n k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r b a r a n g d a l a m n e g e r i s e t e l a h m e l a k u k a n h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m p e r s a m a a n b e r i k u t i n i ,

Cj=Xj-E (4.1)

• C , = X , + M (4.2)

d i m a n a , £ = e k s p o r , d a n M = i m p o r .

K a r e n a k o n d i s i e k o n o m i s u a t u n e g a r a b e r b e d a m a k a n i l a i t u k a r m a t a u a n g s u a t u n e g a r a t i d a k s e l a l u b e r b a n d i n g s a m a d e n g a n n i l a i t u k a r m a t a u a n g n e g a r a l a i n . A n d a i k a n r a s i o n i l a i t u k a r a n t a r a d u a b u a h m a t a u a n g n e g a r a d i b e r i n o t a s i £, d e n g a n d e m i k i a n h a r g a k o m o d i t i k e - 1 d a n k e - 2 d i p a s a r d u n i a , y a i t u :

P . , = (yF)Px (4.3) a t a u ,

P , = F P . , (4.3a) d a n

P ,„2 = (mPz (4.4) a t a u :

P 2 = F P „ 2 (4.4a)

d i m a n a ,

£ = FJ/FT, FJ = m a t a u a n g n e g a r a a s i n g .

FT = m a t a u a n g d a l a m n e g e r i .

S e b u a h n e g a r a y a n g t e l a h m e l a k u k a n h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l , s a l a h s a t u y a n g p e t i n g d i k e n d a l i k a n i a l a h k e s e i m b a n g a n

72

I


n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n (balanced of payment) k a r e n a e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n k e s t a b i l a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d a l a m n e g e r i s u a t u n e g a r a s e c a r a k e s e i u r u h a n . K e s e i m b a n g a n d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m s e b u a h p e r s a m a a n , y a i t u :

P „ , 2 £ - P , , , M = 0 (4.5)

U r a i a n d i a t a s a d a l a h p e n j e l a s a n s i n g k a t t e n t a n g b a g a i m a n a k e g i a t a n h u b u n g a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l d i d e f e n i s i k a n d a l a m s e b u a h p e r s a m a a n ( m o d e l ) , s e h i n g g g a d a p a t d i g a b u n g k a n m e n i a d i s a l a h s a t u b a g i a n d a r i m o d e l C G E s e c a r a k e s e i u r u h a n . P a d a u r a i a n b e r i k u t i n i d i j e l a s k a n b a g a i m a n a m e n g g a b u n g k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a l a m m o d e l C G E , k b u s u s n y a m o d e l C G E - A d a n m o d e l C G E - B .

A . M o d e l C G E - A C

S u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - A t e l a h d i t u n j u k k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( A . l ) s/d ( A / 1 . 5 ) . M o d e l C G E - A C , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - A s e t e l a h d i g a b u n g k a n d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l . A d a b e b e r a p a p e r s a m a a n y a n g d i s e s u a i k a n p a d a m o d e l C G E - A u n t u k d i u b a h m e n j a d i m o d e l C G E - A C , y a i t u ( a ) p e r s a m a a n ( A . 9 ) d a n ( A . I O ) d i t u k a r d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 4 . 1 ) d a n ( 4 . 2 ) , ( b ) d i t a m b a h d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 4 . 3 a ) d a n ( 4 . 4 a ) , s e r t a ( 4 . 5 ) , d a n ( c ) p e r s a m a a -p c r s a m a a n l a i n t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n .

M o d e l C G E - A C t e r d i r i d a r i 1 8 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - A C a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Kj

N

Cj = U + ~)Pj

a

(AC.l)

0 - ? ) ^ 2

C \

\hjky A,

(AC.2)

(AC.3)

/ i 5

bjW

^ a j k j

A, (AC.4)

73

Tinjauan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia

l i p a t d a r i U S $ 1 8 0 , 3 j u t a m e n j a d i U S $ 3 7 5 , 7 j u t a . M e s k i p u n d e m i k i a n k o m p o n e n i m p o r t e r b e s a r m a s i h b e r a s a l d a r i k e l o m p o k S I T C 7 y a n g b e r u p a m e s i n d a n a l a t p e n g a n g k u t y a n g m e n c a k u p b a m p i r 5 0 % ( U S $ 1 3 . 4 5 0 j u t a ) d a r i t o t a l i m p o r . K e l o m p o k b a r a n g k e d u a d a n k e t i g a t e r b e s a r d a l a m i m p o r I n d o n e s i a b e r a s a l d a r i S I T C 6 ( h a s i l i n d u s t r i ) d a n S I T C 5 ( b a h a n k i m i a ) y a n g m a s i n g - i n a s i n g b e r j u m l a b U S $ 5 . 2 2 2 j u t a d a n U S $ 4 . 8 5 4 j u t a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , d i l e m a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g t i n g g i d i s e r t a i a n c a m a n d i s i s i n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n m a s i h a k a n m e n j a d i m a s a l a h . P e m b e n a b a n d a l a m s t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i I n d o n e s i a m u t l a k d i p e r l u k a n , k a l a u I n d o n e s i a t i d a k i n g i n t e r j e r u m u s d a l a m k r i s i s j a n g k a p e n d e k ( s e p e r t i d e f i s i t n e r a c a b e r j a l a n d a n capital flight) y a n g a k a n b e r a k i b a t d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g s e p e r t i p a d a k a s u s M e k s i k o .

I I I . A N A L I S A A P B N 1 9 9 5 / 9 6

R e n c a n a a n g g a r a n p e n d a p a t a n d a n b e l a n j a n e g a r a t a h u n 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 t e r s a j i d i T a b e l 5 . T o t a l r e n c a n a a n g g a r a n 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 m e n c a p a i R p 7 8 . 0 2 4 , 2 m i l y a r y a n g b e r a r t i p e n i n g k a t a n s e b e s a r 1 1 , 8 6 % d a r i A P B N 1 9 9 4 / 9 5 . P e n i n g k a t a n t e r s e b u t d i h a s i l k a n d a r i p e n i n g k a t a n p e n e r i m a a n d a l a m n e g e r i s e b e s a r 1 0 , 9 3 % y a i t u s e b e s a r R p . 6 6 . 2 6 5 , 2 m i l y a r d a n p e n i n g k a t a n a n g g a r a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g l e b i h t i n g g i y a i t u s e b e s a r 1 7 , 4 5 % , y a i t u s e b e s a r R p 1 1 . 7 5 9 , 0 m i l y a r . H a l i n i p a l i n g t i d a k m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n s i f a t e k s p a n s i f a n g g a r a n t a h u n 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 . S e c a r a t e r p e r i n c i a n a l i s a R A P B N 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 d a p a t d i b a g i m e n j a d i d u a b a g i a n : s i s i p e n e r i m a a n d a n s i s i p e n g e l u a r a n .

A . S i s i P e n e r i m a a n

K o m p o s i s i p e n e r i m a a n d a l a m R A P B N 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 d i p e r l i b a t k a n p a d a T a b e l 5 . -P e n i n g k a t a n p e n e r i m a a n s e c a r a t o t a l s e b e s a r 1 1 , 8 6 % d i s u m b a n g k a n d a r i p e n e r i m a a n d a l a m n e g e r i m i g a s y a n g a k a n m e n i n g k a t s e b e s a r 1 0 , 9 3 % d a n p e n e r i m a a n d a l a m n e g e r i n o n m i g a s s e b e s a r 1 3 , 0 2 % , s e r t a p e n e r i m a a n p e m b a n g u n a n ( h u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i ) y a n g m e n i n g k a t s e b e s a r 1 7 , 4 5 % . K o m p o s i s i p e r t u m b u h a n s i s i p e n e r i m a a n m e n u n j u k k a n s e m a k i n s u r u t n y a p e r a n a n m i g a s d a l a m a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a h m e n j a d i h a n y a 2 0 % d a r i 2 1 , 5 % , d i m a n a d a l a m t a h u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 d i g u n a k a n a s u m s i h a r g a m i n y a k s e b e s a r U S $ 1 6 , 5 d e n g a n t i n g k a t p r o d u k s i 1 , 5 4 j u t a b a r e l . M e s k i p u n d a l a m R e p e l i t a V I d i p e r k i r a k a n h a r g a m i n y a k a k a n s e d i k i t m e m b a i k a k i b a t m e n i n g k a t n y a p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a d a n m e n g u a t n y a p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a -n e g a r a i n d u s t r i , s e r t a r e l a t i f s t a b i l n y a p r o d u k s i m i n y a k O P E C , n a m u n t e t a p m e n j a d i b a h a n p e n a n y a a n p e n t i n g t e n t a n g a d a n y a s k e n a r i o b a h w a p a d a t a h u n 2 0 0 0 I n d o n e s i a a k a n m e n j a d i n e t - i m p o r t e r m i n y a k . S e a n d a i n y a h a l t e r s e b u t t e r j a d i , m e s k i p u n t i d a k b e r a r t i p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a a k a n

9


P2=FP,.2 (AC.17)

P„jE-P,,2M=0 (AC.18)

V a r i a b e l e n d o g e n ( v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a l c d i k e t a h u i ) s e b a n y a k 1 8 b u a h , y a i t u : C„ C , , X j , X , , Kp K,. M„ N , , P j , _ P , , w, d a n k, Y, Hp X , M , E , dan F. E m p a t b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n , y a i t u K, N, P , ^ j , d a n P„,2. K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a p e n y e l e s a i a n m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l (unique solution).

B . M o d e l C G E - B C

S u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - B t e l a h d i t u n j u k k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( b . 1 ) s/d ( B . 1 7 ) . M o d e l C G E - B C , y a i t u m o d e l C G E - B s e t e l a h d i g a b u n g k a n d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l . A d a b e b e r a p a p e r s a m a a n y a n g d i s e s u a i k a n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B j i k a d i u b a h m e n j a d i m o d e l C G E - B C , y a i t u ( a ) p e r s a m a a n ( B . 5 ) d a n ( B . 6 ) d i t u k a r d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 4 . 1 ) d a n ( 4 . 2 ) , ( b ) d i t a m b a h d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 4 . 3 a ) d a n ( 4 . 4 a ) , s e r t a ( 4 . 5 ) , d a n ( c ) p e r s a m a a n -p e r s a m a a n l a i i i t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n .

M o d e l C G E - B C t e r d i r i d a r i 2 0 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - B C a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

C , = ( B C . 2 )

( 1 + P)Pj a

C. = (BC.2)

Pi=k0j+wy/, (BC.3)

P2 = k02+WI//2 (BC.4)

C,=XrE (BC.5)

C2=X2-M (BC.6)

X, (BC.7) 1 - a , k

\ a, w.

75

Hulu

Kj =

1 - a , A

V a . Ml)

a, vv 1-a,

X, =

4' ,

^ 1 =

4^. =

<t>z-

A j

a . w

1 - a , A

X,

X ,

^ 1 1 5 " !

1 - a , A^ V, a, H'y

q 1-a, a, w

U - a , Ay

^ 1 - a , A^

V a, M ' j

1-a, a . Ml

1 - a , A

i<:,-i-K,= X

N 2 + N 2 = N

y = A ( X + K 2 ) + M ' f N , + N 2 )

E / + F P , . ,

1 V = F P , . 2

P„,,£-P„,2M=0

( B C . S j

f B C . 9 ;

f B C . 2 0 )

( B C . 2 2 )

(BC.12)

(BC.13)

(BC.14)

(BC.15)

(BC.16)

(BC.17)

(BC.18)

(BC.19)

(BC.20)

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - B C m e m i l i k i 2 0 b u a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , y a i t u C„ C 2 , X „ X 2 , Kj, KT, Np NT, 0p 0,, y/p y/T, Bp Pj, k, w, Y, E , M, d a n F , s e r t a e m p a t b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n y a i t u V a r i a b e l K, N, P , . , , d a n P„,2. K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a j u m l a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , m a k a m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l .

76


5 . M O D E L C G E D E N G A N K E G I A T A N E K O N O M I P E M E R I N T A H

M o d e l C G E - A C a t a u C G E - B C m a k i n l e n g k a p j i k a i k u t d a l a m p e n g a n a l i s i s a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h . K e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h , a n t a r a l a i n , y a i t u m e m b e r i k a n s u b s i d i a t a u m e m u n g u t p a j a k ( b a i k p a j a k l a n g s u n g m a u p u n t i d a k l a n g s u n g ) , s e r t a i k u t s e r t a d a l a m k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i .

S t r u k t u r m o d e l C G E d e n g a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h s a n g a t t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a a s u m s i . A a n d a i k a n b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h i k u t s e r t a d a l a m d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i d e n g a n k u a n t i t a s p r o d u k s i y a i t u s e b e s a r G , d a n Go-T i d a k a d a p e r b e d a a n t e k n o l o g i p a d a s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , b a i k y a n g d i j a l a n k a n p e m e r i n t a h m a u p u n y a n g d i j a l a n k a n p i h a k s w a s t a . T i d a k a d a p e r s a i n g a n h a r g a a n t a r a p e m e r i n t a h d a n s w a s t a , b a i k h a r g a i n p u t m a u p u n h a r g a o u t p u t .

D e n g a n a d a n y a k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h , m a k a k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r b a r a n g d a l a m n e g e r i m e n j a d i :

C , = X , + Gj-E (5.1)

CT = +G2+M (5.2)

K a r e n a p e m e r i n t a h i k u t s e r t a d a l a m k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , m a k a s a l a h s a t u s u m b e r p e n e r i m a a n p e m e r i n t a h y a i t u l a b a y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i d u a k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i , a t a u :

G = Pfij+P2G2-kKg-wN^

d i m a n a , Kg d a n Ng a d a l a h i n p u t m o d a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g

d i p e k e r j a k a n d a l a m k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i p e m e r i n t a h . S e h i n g g a , k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r i n p u t K d a n N m e n j a d i :

Kj+ K2 + Kg= K \5.4)

Ni + N2 + Ng= N j i . i )

D a l a m m o d e l C G E , s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h h a r u s b e r a d a d a l a m k o p d i s i k e s e i m b a n g a n (balanced budget), y a i t u :

G + T = 0 ^5.4)

d i m a n a , T = p e n d a p a t a n b e r s l h p e m e r i n t a h ( s e l u r u h p e n e r i m a a n p a j a k d i k u r a n g i s u b s i d i .

P a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 5 . 3 ) d i t u n j u k a n b a h w a G a d a l a h l a b a d a r i k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i p e m e r i n t a h . J i k a G > 0 , u n t u k m e m e n u h i p e r s a m a a n ( 5 . 4 ) , r n a k a

77

Hulu

h a r u s d i a l i h k a n s e b a g a i s u b s i d i , d a n s e b a l i k n y a j i k a G<0 m a k a p u n g u t a n p a j a k d i t i n g k a t k a n .

P a j a k p e n d a p a t a n d i b e b a n k a n k e p a d a s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a d a l a m b e n t u k p a j a k t e t a p (lump sum tax). D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e n d a p a t a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a , m e n j a d i :

Y = k ( K j + X , + X j + u i ( L i + L T + LJ+ni+H-Ty (5.5)

d i m a n a , Ty a d a l a h p a j a k p e n d a p a t a n .

A n d a i k a n b a h w a p a j a k p e n j u a l a n y a n g d i b e b a n k a n k e p a d a k o n s u m e n h a n y a u n t u k k o m o d i s i k e - 1 , d e n g a n d e m i k i a n h a r g a y a n g d i b a y a r k o n s u m e n t e r h a d a p k o m o d i t i t e r s e b u t , y a i t u :

Qj = Pj + P (5.6)

d i m a n a , T . = p a j a k p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t k o m o d i t i k e - 1 .

P a j a k p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t k o m o d i t i i m p o r s e b e s a r T„„ d e n g a n d e m i k i a n t o t a l p e n e r i m a a n p e m e r i n t a h d a r i p a j a k , y a i t u :

T o t a l p e n e r i m a a n d a r i p a j a k y a i t u :

Ty = Ty + pC,+T„M _ (S.7)

V a r i a b e l T p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 5 . 4 ) a d a l a h T=Ty-T.., d i m a n a T , . a d a l a h

s u b s i d i .

A . M o d e l C G E - A C D

M o d e l C G E - A C D a d a l a h m o d e l C G E - A C s e t e l a h d i m a s u k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h . P e m e r i n t a h m e m u n g u t p a j a k p e n j u a l a n t e r h a d a p o u t p u t k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 , s e h i n g g a f u n g s i p e m e r i n t a a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a t e r h a d a p k o m d o d i t i t e r s e b u t m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n . S t r u k t u r p e n d a p a t a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n y a i t u d i m a s u k a n p a j a k p e n d a p a t a n . U n t u k l e b i h s e d e r h a n a , m a k a d i a n d a i k a n b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h m e m u t u s k a n t i d a k i k u t s e r t a d a l a m k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i k e - 1 , a t a u G , = 0 .

M o d e l C G E - A C s e t e l a h d i m a s u k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h ( m o d e l C G E - A C D ) m e n j a d i 2 2 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - A C D a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

C, = ^ (ACD.l)

a

T o p o l o g i M o d e l K o m p u t a s i K e s e i m b a n g a h U r n j n i

Y

Qi=Pi+L

X, =

X , =

X, =

' a y

\hjkj XJ

' b y "X 1

\ajWj

' a y \ b . k y

' - X . - '

a . I

X , = f U lr \ a . - b . ,1. - A , h.k

X.

1

( a , + / ) , ) \ b ^ k j

a, 4-h, ' t y

\ a , M V

a, +6,

l - ( a , = A , )

C D G ;

{ACD.3)

(ACD.4)

(ACD.S)

(ACD.S)

(ACD.7)

(ACD.8)

7 9

Hulu

(ACD.9)

C,=X, -£ (ACD.W)

C2=X2+M+G2 (AC.DU)

Kj+K2+Kg= K (ACD.12)

N , + N,+Ng= N • ( L C D . 1 3 )

y = A ( X , + X , + X ^ + ( N , + N , + + 7 7 , + 7 7 , - T , (AC DA 4)

nj=P,XrkKrwNj (ACDA5)

77,=P,X,-AX2-«'N, (ACDA6)

Pj-FPua (ACD.l 7)

Pi^FPiui+Fm (ACD.18)

P,.,£-P„.2M=0 (ACD.19)

G=P2G2-kKg-wNg (ACD.20)

T=Ty+T,Cj+TJA (ACD.21)

G + 7 = 0 (ACD.22)

V a r i a b e l e n d o g e n ( v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i ) s e b a n y a k 2 2 b u a h , y a i t u : C„ C , , X „ X j , X „ X , , N„ N , , P„ P , , d a n A , Y , 7 7 , . 7 7 , , M, E , F, Qi, G, T, d a n Ty. D e l a p a n b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n , y a i t u X , N , P , . , , P,.2> G2, Kg, Tc, d a n T,„. K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a p e n y e l e s a i a n m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l {unique solution).

X. =

1 + w

b^k

80


B . M o d e l C G E - B C D

M o d e l C G E - B C D a d a l a h m o d e l C G E - B C s e t e l a h d i m a s u k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h . A s u m s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n p a d a m o d e l C G E - A C D t i d a k J a u h b e r b e d a d e n g a n a s u m s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n p a d a m o d e l C G E - B C D . P a d a m o d e l C G E - A C D m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i n o n l i n i e r , s e m e n t a r a p a d a m o d e l C G E - B C D m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d e n g a n p u l a n g a n h a s i l t e t a p .

M o d e l C G E - B C D t e r d i r i d a r i 2 4 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - B C D a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Y

( i + - ) a a

Pi=k0j + wy/j

P2 = k02 + U'y/2

C,=XrE

C2=X2 + G2 + M

Qi=P,+E

\ a i

X , = l - g , k

V a, w J X

X , =

X, =

y, ,\"7

V a . M'J

a, w 1 - a , Ay

X ,

{BCD.l}

(BCD.2)

(ACD.3)

(BCD.4)

(BCD.5)

(hcD.6)

(BCD.7)

(ACD.S)

(ACD.9)

(BCD. 10)

8 1

Hulu

a . w I

1 - a , T I-a.

X , ( A C D . l 2 )

4 , =

r, ,\''i 1 - a , A

V a , w j (ACD.IZ)

</>x =

\ 1 "i a , w

1 - a , Ay ( B C D . 2 3 )

4^, =

Y , , 1 - a , A

k a , H ' ) ( A C D . 7 4 )

r \ '-02 a, If 1 - a , A.

( B C D . 2 5 )

Kj+K2 + Kg= K ACD.l 6)

N j + N v + N , = N (AC.D17)

Y = A ( X , -1- X , 4- X ^ + u ' ( N , + N , + N J - P (ACD.18)

G=P2G2-kKg-wNg (ACD.19)

T=Ty+pCj + T„M (ACD.20)

G + T = 0 (ACD.21)

Pi=FPu-, (ACD.22)

P2=FP„., + T„, (ACD.23)

P„,E-P„.2rn = 0 (ACD.24)

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - B C D t e r d a p a t 2 4 b u a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , y a i t u C„ C , , X „ X , , X , . X , , Np Np 0p 02. 'Pi, PI, P,. PI. k, w, Y, E , M , Qp p, T, C, d a n F , s e r t a s e m b i l a n b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n y a i t u V a r i a b e l X , N , P«i, Pwi, Gp Kg, Ng, T . , d a n T„. J u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a m o d e l t e r s e b u t

82

Topologi Model Komputasi KeseImbangan Umum

d i m u n g k i n k a n d i s e l e s a i k a n .

6 . M O D E L C G E D E N G A N D U A S E K T O R R U M A H T A N G G A

P a d a m o d e l C G E - A C D d a n C G E - B C D d i a n d a i k a n h a n y a a d a s a t u s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a . P a d a b a g i a n i n i , m o d e l C G E - A C D d a n C G E - B C D d i s e m p u r n a k a n d e n g a n a n d a i a n d u a s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a .

S e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a c h b e d a k a n m e n j a d i d u a k e l o m p o k , y a i t u r u m a h t a n g g a y a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n u p a h {labor income) s e b e s a r Y„ d a n r u m a h t a n g g a y a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n b u k a n u p a h {non-labor income) s e b e s a r Y , a t a u Y=Ya+Yfc. F u n g s i u t i l i t i r u m a h t a n g g a a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

TJ -fOanfia

Ub = QfC^.j

(6.1)

(6.2)

d i m a n a , n o t a s i " a " d a n "b" m e n u n j u k a n f u n g s i u t i l i t i r u m a h t a n g g a k e l o m p o k b e r p e n d a p a t a n u p a h d a n b e r p e n d a p a t a n b u k a n u p a h , d a n n o t a s i " 1 " d a n " 2 " m e n u n j u k k a n k o m o d i t i , k e - 1 d a n k o m o d i t i k e - 2 .

P a d a m o d e l C G E - A C D d a n C G E - B C D t e l a h d i a n d a i k a n b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h m e m u n g u t p a j a k p e n j u a l a n h a n y a p a d a k o m o d i t i k e - 1 s e b e s a r T . , s e h i n g g a h a r g a p e r s a t u s a t u a n u n i t k o m o d i t i k e - 1 m e n j a d i Q , = P , + T . . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , f u n g s i k e n d a l a p e m a k s i m u m a n u t i l i t i s e t i a p k e l o m p o k s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Ya = eA,+P2C.2 (6.3)

YA=eiQ,+P2Ct2 (6.4)

d i m a n a , C ^ , , C,,2> G ^ , , d a n C^i m e n u n j u k k a n r e n c a n a k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a k e l o m p o k " a " d a n "b" t e r h a d a p k o m o d i t i k e - 1 d a n k e - 2 .

M e n g a p l i k a s i k a n m e t o d e y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m e n d a p a t k a n f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 . 7 ) d a n ( 2 . 8 ) , s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n r u m a h t a n g g a k e l o m p o k "a" d a n " b " t e r h a d a p d u a j e n i s k o m o d i t i , y a i t u :

c (6.S)

83

Hulu

Q2 = ^ f 6 . 6 )

( 1 + ^ ) ^ 2

Q , i f 6 . 7 )

Q2 = — ^ — r 6 . s )

0 + ^ ) ^ 2

P e n d a p a t a n r u m a h t a n g g a k e l o m p o k "a" a t a u r u m a h t a n g g a b e r p e n d a p a t a n u p a h d a n k e l o m p o k " fc" a t a u r u m a h t a n g g a b e r p e n d a p a t a n b u k a n u p a h , a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

X , = M ; ( N j + N , + N ^ - T y ( 6 . 9 )

y t = A ( K , + X , + X ^ + 7 7 , + 7 7 , - T y ( 6 . 1 0 )

d a n d i a n d a i k a n b a h w a t i d a k a d a p e r b e d a a n p a j a k p e n d a p a t a n b a g i s e t i a p k e l o m p o k r u m a h t a n g g a .

D e n g a n a d a n y a p e m b e d a a n k e l o m p o k s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a d a l a m m o d e l C G E , m a k a d i m u n g k i n k a n d i g u n a k a n m o d e l t e r s e b u t u n t u k t u j u a n p e n g a n a l i s i s a n d a m p a k k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p d i s t r i b u s i p e n d a p a t a n . U n t u k k a s u s d i a t a s , d a p a t d i a n a l i s i s d a m p a k k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i ( p e r u b a h a n v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n ) t e r h a d a p k e l o m p o k r u m a h t a n g g a b e r p e n d a p a t a n u p a h ( k e l o m p o k p e k e r j a ) d a n k e l o m p o k r u m a h t a n g g a b e r p e n d a p a t a n b u k a n u p a h ( k e l o m p o k m a j i k a n ) . P e n g k l a s i f i k a s i a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a s a n g a t m u n g k i n d i p e r l u a s s e s u a i d e n g a n y a n g d i i n g i n k a n p a r a p e m b u a t k e b i j a k a n , s e m e n t a r a a p a y a n g d i p a p a r k a n d a l a m b a g i a n i n i t e r b a t a s h a n y a s e b u a h c o n t o h s e d e r h a n a .

A . M o d e l C G E - A C D 2

M o d e l C G E - A C D 2 a d a l a h m o d e l C G E - A C D y a n g d i s e m p u r n a k a n d e n g a n p e m b e d a a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a m e n j a d i d u a k e l o m p o k . M o d e l C G E -A C D 2 t e r d i r i d a r i 2 7 p e r s a m a a n , a t a u u n t u k l e b i h j e l a s a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

84


X , =

c , =

( 1 + ^ ) 0 , or.

X

Q i =

0 + ^ ) ^ : P a

Q 3 = X

X , =

X , =

P b

Q,=P,+X

r*i * i ' vA,Ay

A, A

X i X

X , Va,if7

X , =

X , =

b.

\h2ky

' b y

a . . b . a . - h .

a-y -Eh-, a-, +6-, " X , • '

l - ( a , - f c , )

(a,

a,vf

VA|Ay

a, TK TW

h^k a. ^b.

6a. 1)

(6a.2)

'6a.3)

(6a.4)

(6a.S)

'6a.6)

'6a.7)

'6a.H)

(6a.9)

(6a.W)

8 5

Huiu

(6a. 11)

(6a. 12)

(6a.l3)

Cj=XrE (6a. 14)

C,=X2+M+G-, (6a. I S)

Kj+K2+Kg= K (6a. 16)

Nj+N2+Ng= N (6a. 17)

Y,=u'(N,+N2+Ng)-l\. (6a. 18)

Yh=w(Nj+N,++ 7 7 , + UT-T, (6a. 19)

Jjj=l jXj-kKj-wNJ (6a.ZU)

n2=P2X2-kK2-wN2 (6a.21)

Pl=FPul (6a.22)

P2=FP,,2 + T„, (6a.23)

P„,£-P„ ,2M=0 (6a.24)

G=P2G2-kKg-u'Ng (6a.2S)

T=Ty+T,Cj+TJA (6a.26)

G+T=0 (6a.27)

V a r i a b e l e n d o g e n ( v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i ) s e b a n y a k 2 7 b u a h ,

X. = PT

1

(a, + - ^ 2 )

y a .

b.k

a-, -*-bi + w

b.k a-, +i>T

Topologi Model Komputasi Keseimbatigan Umum

y a i t u : C„ Q , Q j , Q , , Q , , X , , X , , X„ Kp N„ Np P„ Pp w, k, Y„ Yh, Up Up M, E, F, Qp G, T, d a n Ty. D e l a p a n b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n , y a i t u

K. N, P,,p P,,p Gp Ng, X , d a n T„,.

K a r e n a j u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a p e n y e l e s a i a n m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i j a m i n m e n g h a s i l k a n s o l u s i t u n g g a l {unique solution).

B. Model C G E - B C D 2

M o d e l C G E - B C D 2 a d a l a b m o d e l C G E - B C D y a n g d i s e m p u r n a k a n d e n g a n p e m b e d a a n s e k t o r r u m a b t a n g g a m e n j a d i d u a k e l o m p o k .

M o d e l C G E - B C D 2 t e r d i r i d a r i 2 9 b u a b p e r s a m a a n . U n t u k l e b i h j e l a s , s u s u n a n m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

C = ^ P

-a2 ^ 0 + / ) ^ 2

P a

c =-

a 6

c = ^

0 + ^ ) ^ 2 Pb

Pj=k0j + W<Pj

P2 = k02 + W'FT

Gi=C.j+Ci,j

C2 = Ca2 + Gh2

(6b. 1)

(6b.2)

(6b3}

(6b.4)

(6b.5)

(6b.6)

(6b.7)

(6b.8)

(6b.9)

87

Cj=XrE

C2=X2 +GT+M

Nj = k a, w )

X ,

( 6 6 . 2 0 )

( 6 6 . 2 2 )

( 6 6 . 2 2 )

A

a, w X , (6h.l3)

Kj = a, H-

v ] - a , Ay X ( 6 6 . 2 4 )

^2 = a, vf

1 - a , A X , ( 6 6 . 2 5 )

^ 1 7 5 " !

1 - a , A k a,

( 6 6 . 2 6 )

<l>x ' a , vf v l - a , Ay ( 6 6 . 2 7)

4 ' , = F 1 ; A " 2

1 - a , A V a, H'2

(6b. 18)

<^2 =

r \ l a

a, vf 1 - a , A (6b. 19)

K,+K2+Kg= K

Ni+N2+Ng= N

Y,~w(N, + N-2 + Ng)-T..

(6h.20)

(6a.2l)

(6,1.22)

T o p o l o g i M o d e l K o m p u t d s i K e s e i m b a n g a n U m u m

G=P2GT-kKg-u'Ng (6b.24)

T=Ty+T,Cj+TJA (6b.2S)

G+T=0 (6b.26)

Pi=FPui (6b.27)

P2=FP,„T+T„, (6b.28)

(6b.29)

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - B C D t e r d a p a t 2 9 b u a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , y a i t u Cp Cp C,p C,p Ckp Chp Xp Xp Kp Kp Np Np 0p 0p 9'p " P , , P„ Pp k, w, Y„ Yfc, £ , M, Qp Ty, T, G, d a n F, s e r t a s e m b i l a n b u a b v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n y a i t u V a r i a b e l K, N, P , . , , P„.2, G 2 , Kp Np T„ d a n T„,. J u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a j u m l a h v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e h i n g g a m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i m u n g k i n k a n d i s e l e s a i k a n .

7 . M O D E L C G E - I O

M o d e l i n p u t - o u t p u t a t a u m o d e l I - O a d a l a h s a l a h s a t u m o d e l e k o n o m i k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m t e r a p a n d e n g a n t u n g s i p r o d u k s i b e r c i r i p u l a n g a n t e t a p . S t r u k t u r m o d e l C G E - B , a t a u C G E - B C , a t a u C G E - B C D , a t a u C G E -B C D 2 , t i d a k j a u h b e r b e d a d e n g a n s t r u k t u r m o d e l C G E - I O .

M o d e l C G E - I O a d a l a h m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 s e t e l a h d i m o d i f i k a s i d e n g a n m o d e l i n p u t - o u t p u t . J u m l a h p e r s a m a a n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 d a n m o d e l C G E - I O t i d a k b e r b e d a y a i t u s e b a n y a k 2 9 b u a h p e r s a m a a n . P e r b e d a a n t e r l e t a k p a d a b a n y a k n y a v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n d a n b e b e r a p a p e r s a m a a n d i u b a h s u s u n a n n y a s e s u a i d e n g a n v a r i a b e l e k o n o m i y a n g t e r c a k u p d a l a m m o d e l I - O .

H a n y a e m p a t b u a h p e r s a m a a n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 y a n g p e r l u d i u b a h u n t u k d i j a d i k a n s e b a g a i m o d e l C G E - I O , y a i t u p e r s a m a a n ( 6 b . 6 ) , ( 6 b . 7 ) , ( 6 b . 1 0 ) , d a n ( 6 b . 1 1 ) . S e d a n g k a n p e r s a m a a n - p e r s a m a a n l a i n n y a t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n .

D a l a m m o d e l I - O t e r d a p a t p e r m i n t a a n a n t a r a t e r h a d a p o u t p u t d a r i s e t i a p k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , h a r g a p e r u n i t o u t p u t t i d a k h a n y a m e m p e r t i m b a n g k a n h a r g a s e t i a p i n p u t p r i m e r ( s e p e r t i y a n g d i t u n j u k a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 6 b . 6 ) d a n ( 6 b . 7 ) , t e t a p i h a r g a i n p u t a n t a r a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , p e r s a m a a n ( 6 b . 6 ) d a n ( 6 b . 7 ) b e r u b a h s u s u p a n n y a m e n j a d i :

8 9

Huiu

Pj=anPj + a,, P, + k 0j + wTj (7.1)

P2=au Pi + Pz +k02 fz (7-2)

d i m a n a .

'ij = y i '

Xj = o u t p u t s e k t o r p r o d u k s i k e - / ,

. V - = o u t p u t s e k t o r p r o d u k s i k e - i y a n g d i g u n a k a n s e b a g a i i n p u t p a d a

s e k t o r p r o d u k s i ke-j, u n t u k /,/ = 1 d a n 2 .

D a l a m m o d e l I - O , o u t p u t d a r i s e t i a p s e k t o r t i d a k h a n y a u n t u k u n t u k m e m e n u h i p e r m i n t a a n a k b i r (final d e m a n d ) t e t a p i j u g a p e r m i n t a a n a n t a r a ( i n t e r m e d i a t e d e m a n d ) . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , p e r s a m a a n ( 6 b . 1 0 ) d a n ( 6 b . 1 1 ) b e r u b a h s u s u n a n n y a m e n j a d i :

X j = a „ X , + rt,,X3 + £ + C , (7.3)

X 7 = a 2 i X i + a 2 2 X 2 + G , - M (7.4)

d i m a n a , a - u n t u k i , j = l d a n 2 , a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n p e n j e l a s a n p a d a

p e r s a m a a n ( 7 . 1 ) d a n (7 .2 ) .

D e n g a n a d a n y a b e b e r a p a b e r u b a h a n t e r s e b u t d i a t a s , s e h i n g g a k o n s t r u k s i m o d e l C G E - I O a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

C , = ^ (7't-l)

( 1 + ^ ) 0 o r .

y = jZ • (7a.2) ( 1 + ^ ) 7 3

Pa -

Q i = i (7't.3) Pb

0 + ^ ) G « 6

Cb2 = § (7n.4)

0 + f ) ^ 2 Pb

90

T o p o l o g i M o d e l K o m p u t a s i K e s e i m b a n g a n U m u m

Qi=PXT,.

P,=,i,,P,+iiT,P, + k 0 , + w'Fj

P,=,i,.P, + ,i..P, + k0, + ir'P.

c,=c„ J+(:,,,

C z = C„z + C,2

X,=,I,,X,+,IITXZ + F + CI

X J = ' U ,X/+''jjX, + G , - M + Q

ffaJ)

(fa.6)

(7a.7)

(fa.8)

(7a.9)

(7a. 10)

(7a.U)

X , =

\ - a , k a,

k\ a . w j

r

v l - a k/

f a . w

X,

X ,

1 - a , k

X ,

X ,

^1-a, A - V "

<f>x =

k a, try

a , w v l - a . Ay

F 1 /

V a , try

( 7 a . ? 2 j

( 7 , / . 2 5 )

(7a. 16)

(Ja.l7)

(7a. 18)

91

H u l u

' \ > T =

a . M'

k (7a. 19)

K,+K2 + Kg= K (7a.20)

N,+N2+Ng= N (7a.21)

Y,=w(N, + N,+Nj-T, (7a.22)

Y;,-k(K,+K2+KJ-T, (7a.23)

G=P2G2-kKg-wNg (7a.24)

T=Ty+T,Cj+T„M (7a.l5)

G+T=0 (7a.26)

P,=FP,,, (7a.l7)

P2=FP,..2+T,„ (7a.28)

P.,.,E-P.,.2M=0 (7a.29)

D a l a m m o d e ! C G E - I O m e m i l i k i 2 9 b u a h v a r i a b e l e n d o g e n , y a i t u C , , C,, C.,„ C , 2 . C,,„ C,,2, Xp X2. Kp K2. Np N,, <Pp 02, T „ ^2> Pu Pz, k, iv, Y„, Yj,, E, M, Qp Ty, T, G, d a n F , s e r t a b e b e r a p a b u a h v a r i a b e l e k s o g e n y a i t u V a r i a b e l K, N, l\.p P,,.2, G2, Kp Ujp an, a2p a22, Np T„ d a n T„,. J u m l a h p e r s a m a a n s a m a d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a j u m l a b v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k d i k e t a h u i , s e b i n g g a m o d e l t e r s e b u t d i m u n g k i n k a n d i s e l e s a i k a n .

8 . P E N U T U P

D a l a m m o d e l C G E - A , C G E - B , C G E - A C , d a n C G E - B C , k o n e r j a s i s t i m p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a m e n g a n u t s i s t i m p a s a r b e b a s , d a l a m a r t i t a n p a c a m p u r - t a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h . K e g i a t a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n n e g a r a d i j e l a s k a n d a l a m m o d e l C G E - A C D d a n C G E - B C D . K e m u d i a n , d a l a m m o d e l C G E - A C D 2 d a n C G E - B C D 2 s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a d i b e d a k a n m e n u r u t d u a k e l o m p o k , y a i t u k e l o m p o k b e r p e n d a p a t a n d a r i u p a h d a n k e l o m p o k b e r p e n d a p a t a n b u k a n d a r i u p a h ( l a b a a t a u b u n g a d a r i m o d a l ) . M o d e l C G E - I O a d a l a b p e n g e m b a n g a n m o d e l C G E - B C D 2 s e t e l a h t e r l e b i h d a h u l u d i s e s u a i k a n d e n g a n m o d e l input-output Leontief.

P r o s e s p e m b e n t u k a n m o d e l C G E d i t u r u n k a n d a r i p e r i l a k u p e l a k u

92


e k o n o m i , b a i k s e b a g a i k o n s u m e n m a u p u n s e b a g a i p r o d u s e n . O l e b k a r e n a i t u , m o d e l C G E c e n d e r u n g l e b i b r e l e v a n j i k a p e r a n m e k a n i s m e p a s a r d a l a m b e r b a g a i k e p u t u s a n e k o n o m i c e n d e r u n g m a k i n b e s a r .

B e b e r a p a . m o d e l C G E d a l a m t u l i s a n m e r u p a k a n d a s a r p e n g e m b a n g a n s t u d i l a n j u t a n . U n t u k t u j u a n i t u , b e b e r a p a s a r a n , a n t a r a l a i n , ( a ) m e t o d e d a n p r o s e s p e r h i t u n g a n d a l a m m e n e n t u k a n k e s e i m b a n g a n u m u m , ( b ) p e n g e m b a n g a n m o d e l d e n g a n c a k u p a n y a n g l e b i b l u a s , b a i k d i l i h a t d a r i d i s a g r e g a s i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i m a u p u n d i l i h a t d a n p e n g k u a n t i t a t i f k a n i n d i k a t o r k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i , d a n ( c ) t e h n i k p e n e l i t i a n g u n a m e m p e r o l e b d a t a p e n d u k u n g d a l a m m e n g a p l i k a s i k a n m o d e l .

93

H u l u

K E P U S T A K A A N

B a n d a r a , J . S . ( 1 9 9 1 ) . A« Investigation of "Dutch Disease" Economics ivith a Miniature CGE Model. J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 3 , N o . l , h a l . 6 7 - 9 2 .

B e r g m a n , L . ( 1 9 8 8 ) , Energy Modeling: A Survey of General Equilibrium Appoaches, J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 0 , N o . 3 , h a l . 3 7 7 - 3 9 9 .

B e r g s o n , A . ( 1 9 8 3 ) , Pareto on Social Welfare, Journal of Economic Literature, V o l . 2 1 , h a l . 4 0 - 4 6 .

D e b r e u , G . ( 1 9 8 9 ) , Existence of General Equilibrium, d a l a m E a t w e l l , J . , M u r r a y M i l g a t e , P e t e r N e w m a n ( e d . ) , T b e N e w P a l g r a v e : G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m , N e w Y o r k , W . W . N o r t o n 8 c C o m p a n y , L t d . , b a l . 1 3 1 -1 5 3 .

D e r v i s , K . , J a i m e D e M e l o , S h e r m a n R o b i n s o n ( 1 9 8 2 ) , General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy, C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e .

D e v a r a g a n , S . , J e f f r e y D . L e w i s , S h e r m a n R o b i n s o n ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Policy Lessons from Trade-Eocused, Two Sector Models, J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 2 , N o . 4 , b a l . 6 2 5 - 6 5 7 .

D i n w i d d y , C . L . , F . J . T e a l ( 1 9 8 8 ) , The Two-Sector General Equilibrium Model: A New Approach, E x f o r d , P h i l i p A l l a n / S t . M a r t i n , s P r e s s .

D i x o n , P . B . , B . R . P a r m e n t e r , J o h n S u t t o n , D . E V i n c e n t ( 1 9 8 2 ) , Orani: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, A m s t e r d a m , N o r t b -H o l a n d P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y .

D i x o n , P . B . , B . R . P a r m e n t e r , A l a n A . P o l w e l l , P e t e r J . W i l c o x e n ( 1 9 9 2 ) , Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics, A m s t e r d a m , N o r t b - H o l a n d P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y .

D u f f i e , D . , H u g o S o n n e n s c b e i n ( 1 9 8 9 ) , Arrow and General Equilibrium Theory, J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c L i t e r a t u r e , V o l . 2 7 , b a l . 5 6 5 - 5 9 8 .

G e a n a k o p o l o s , J . ( 1 9 8 9 ) , Arrow-Debreau Model of General Equilibrium, d a l a m E a t w e l l , J . , M u r r a y M i l g a t e , P e t e r N e w m a n ( e d . ) . The New Palgrave: General Equilibrium, N e w Y o r k , W W N o r t o n 8 c C o m p a n y , L t d . , b a l . 4 3 - 6 1 .

H a m i l t o n , B . , S h a r i f M o h a m m a d , J o h n W h a l l e y ( 1 9 8 8 ) , Applied General Equilibrium Analysis and Perspective on Growth Performance, J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 0 , N o . 2 , b a l . 2 8 1 - 2 9 7 .

94


H a m i l t o n , C . ( 1 9 8 6 ) , A General Equilibrium Model of Structural Change and Economic Growth, w i t h A p p l i c a t i o n t o S o u t h K o r e a , J o u r n a l o f D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 2 3 , H a l . 6 7 - 8 8 .

M c C a r t h y , F . D . , L a n c e T a y l o r ( 1 9 8 0 ) , Macro Food Policy Planning: A General Equilibrium Model for Pakistan, T h e R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , V o l . 6 2 , N o . 1 , h a l . 1 0 7 - 1 2 1 .

M c K e n z i e , L . W ( 1 9 8 9 ) , G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m , d a l a m E a t w e l l , J . , M u r r a y M i l g a t e , P e t e r N e w m a n ( e d . ) . The New Palgrave: General Equilibrium, N e w Y o r k , W . W . N o r t o n 8 c C o m p a n y , L t d . , b a l . 1 - 3 5 .

N o v s b e k , W , H u g o S o n n e n s c b e i n ( 1 9 8 7 ) , General Equilibrium With Free Entry: A Synthetic Approach to the Theory of Perfect Competition, J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c L i t e r a t u r e , V o l . 2 5 , b a l . 1 2 8 1 - 1 3 0 6 .

P a t i n k i n , D . ( 1 9 8 9 ) , W a l r a s L a w , d a l a m E a t w e l l , J . , . M u r r a y M i l g a t e , P e t e r N e w m a n ( e d . ) . The New Palgrave: General Equilibrium, N e w Y o r k , W W N o r t o n 8c C o m p a n y , L t d . , b a l . 3 2 8 - 3 3 9 .

P e r e i r a , A . M . , J o h n B . S h o v e n ( 1 9 8 8 ) , Survey of Dynamic Computational General Equilibrium Models for Tax Policy Evaluation, J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 0 , N o . 3 , b a l . 4 0 1 - 4 3 6 .

R o b i n s o n , S . , D a v i d W . R o l a n d - H o i s t ( 1 9 8 8 ) , Macroeconomic Structure and Computable General Equilibrium Models, J o u r n a l o f P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , V o l . 1 0 , N o . 3 , b a l . 3 5 3 - 3 7 5 .

R o b i n s o n , S . ( 1 9 8 9 ) , M u l t i s e c t o r a l M o d e l s , d a l a m H o l l i s C h e n e r y d a n T . N . S r i n i v a s a n ( e d . ) . Handbook of Development Economics, N o r t b -H o l a n d P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y , V o l . I I , b a l . 8 8 5 - 9 4 7 .

S c r a f , H . E . ( 1 9 8 9 ) , Computation of General Equilibria, d a l a m E a t w e l l , J . , M u r r a y M i l g a t e , P e t e r N e w m a n ( e d . ) , T b e N e w P a l g r a v e : G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m , N e w Y o r k , W W . N o r t o n 8 c C o m p a n y , L t d . , b a l . 8 4 - 9 7 .

S h o v e n , J . B . , J o h n W h a l l e y ( 1 9 8 4 ) , Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey, J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c L i t e r a t u r e , V o l . 2 2 , h a l . 1 0 0 7 - 1 0 5 1 .

S u k n a m K o , G e o f f r e y J . D . H e w i n g s ( 1 9 8 6 ) , A Regional Computable General Equilibrium for Korea, T h e K o r e a n J o u r n a l o f R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , V o l . 2 , h a l . 4 5 - 5 7 .

W e i n t r a u b , E . R . ( 1 9 8 3 ) , On the Existence of A Competitive Equilibrium: 1 9 3 0 - 1 9 5 4 , J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c L i t e r a t u r e , V o l . 2 1 , b a l . 1 - 3 9 .

W e i n t r a u b , E . R . ( 1 9 8 5 ) , General Equilibrium Analysis: Studies in Appraisal, C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s .

95

C o n t r i b u t o r s t o T b i s I s s u e

B a s r i , F a i s a l H .

H u l u , E d i s o n

I n d r a w a t i , M u l y a n i S r i

J a s m i n a , T b i a

P u r w o t o , A d r e n g

S i m a t u p a n g , P a n t j a r

T j i p t o b e r i j a n t o , P r i j o n o

Researcher, I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c a n d H e a d o f t b e S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , F a c u l t y o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a .

Lecturer, F a c u l t y o f E c o n o m i c s , N o m m e n s e n U n i v e r s i t y , M e d a n .

Vice Director, I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c a n d S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , F a c u l t y o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a .

Researcher, I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c a n d S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , F a c u l t y o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a .

Researcher, C e n t r e f o r S o c i a l , E c o n o m i c , a n d A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h , B o g o r .

Researcher, C e n t r e f o r S o c i a l , E c o n o m i c a n d A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a r c h , B o g o r .

Deputy Chariman, T b e N a t i o n a l A g e n c y f o r S t a t e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( L A N ) , J a k a r t a .

Documents

Topologi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum