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MARCH 21, 20141

THE TRUMPET WEEKLYTHE TRUMPET WEEKLYM A R C H 2 1 , 2 0 1 4

Russia warns: Well play the Iran card 5

Russian patriotism soaring 5

Moscow moves to destabilize Eastern Ukraine 6

Will Moldova be the next Ukraine? 7

American fatigue syndrome 9

BY BRAD MACDONALD

T Trecently highlighted the prophetic signifi-

cance o the support China, India and even Japan aregiving Russia as it conronts Europe and America over

Ukraine. But Moscow is solidiying riendships beyondAsia, and one in particular bears close attention. Tis isRussias relationship with Iran.

First, recall how much diplomatic energy Europe and

America have invested in recent months in improving

relations with ehran in the hope o securing a permanentpeace agreement. Americas president has worked especial-ly hard to placate ehran. As his presidency winds down,and with his domestic policies flailing, Barack Obamawants to go down in history as the man who negotiatedpeace between the U.S. and its most implacable enemy.

Iran: Russias Trump Card

see IRAN page 12

Russian President Vladimir Putin

(right) shakes hands with his Iranian

counterpart Hassan Rouhani.

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MARCH 21, 20142THE TRUMPET WEEKLY

MIDDLE EAST

to outside help rom Russia, Iran andHezbollah. Arms shipments, financialhelp, consultants and volunteers havehelped him stay afloat. I his regimeis somehow overthrown during theourth year o fighting, it will probably

be because o his assassination.Te importance o Russias supportor Assad becomes more obvious withtime. Afer the first year o fighting,when it seemed Assad aced certaindeeat, the Russian media reportedthat Moscow had decided to withdrawits advisers and experts. But somestayed, and in recent months Russiahas come back into the picture at ullstrength.

Russian advisers are now inte-grated at all levels o the regime and

its security orces, rom assisting thearmys chie o staff to training troops.Shipments o arms and ammunitionare sent to the regime via the port oartus in the north, where Russia is incontrol.

When it seemed Assad had gottenhimsel in bad trouble by massacring, civilians near Damascus withchemical weapons, Russia saved him.Ten there was the agreement or Syriato relinquish its enormous stockpile o

IDF to Prepare forStrike on IranHAARETZ | March 19

P

M Benjamin Netan-

yahu and Deense Minister MosheYaalon have ordered the army tocontinue preparing or a possible mili-tary strikeon Irans nuclear acilitiesat a cost o at least billion shekels(. billion) this year, despite thetalks between Iran and the West, ac-cording to recent statements by seniormilitary officers.

representatives said the armyhad received a clear directive romgovernment officials rom the politi-cal echelonmeaning Netanyahu and

Yaalonto continue readying or apossible independent strike by Israelon the Iranian nuclear sites, regardlesso the talks now happening betweenIran and the West, the three M.K.ssaid.

Ever since the interim accordbetween Iran and the six powers wasreached, Netanyahu has stressed thatIsrael will not consider itsel boundby it. In the last ew weeks, as talkson a permanent accord have resumed,

Netanyahu has upped his rhetoric onthe Iranian issue, and is again mak-ing implied threats about a possibleunilateral Israeli strike on the Iraniannuclear sites.

My riends, I believe that letting

Iran enrich uranium would open upthe floodgates, Netanyahu said at the[American Israel Public Affairs Com-mittee] conerence earlier this month.

Tat must not happen. And we willmake sure it does not happen.

Assad Fights onThanks to Russia, IranHAARETZ | March 18

A P Bashar Assads orceshave survived into the ourth year

o Syrias civil war, the world mediais noting another accomplishment oa regime that Western intelligenceagencies once said should be a thing othe past. In the town o Yabroud nearDamascus and the Lebanese border,the Syrian Army and Hezbollah aremethodically making progress in thestruggle against the rebels.

It seems Assad owes his survival

I now clear that the West wil l allow absolutely no evi-

dence, however devastating, to prevent a deal being signedwith Iran over its nuclear program.

From the start, there has been a total dislocation o real-ity. Te U.S., UK and EU awned over Irans new PresidentRouhani or ushering in a new dawn o reormthe sameRouhani who boasted o previously hoodwinking the U.S.over Irans nuclear program.

Last November, [British Prime Minister] David Cameronphoned Rouhani to welcome his moves afer taking office.Yet under Rouhani, repression has become even morehorrific. Executions have risen sharply, with more than people hanged so ar this year.

Western leaders swear they will never let Iran develop

nuclear weapons. Only last week, Cameron told IsraelsKnesset: I share your deep skepticism and great concernabout Iran. A nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to the wholeworld; Britain will ensure that is never allowed to happen.

Yet the interim deal signed in Geneva last November, en-dorsed by Cameron, ensures that this certainly will happen.

It allows Iran to enrich uranium, crossing the Westsostensible redline. It allows the Arak heavy water reactor

necessary solely or the production o nuclear weaponstoremain on course. Its inspection provisions are a joke. Rou-hani has accurately hailed the deal as a Western surrender.

Israel revealed earlier this month urther evidence oIranian reormist tendencies when it intercepted a shipbound or Gaza, the Klos C, carrying a cargo o missilesloaded in Iran. Tese included rockets with a range o- kilometers [- miles], enough to target all oIsrael.

Tis discovery o Iran in flagrante delicto occasionedlittle more than a yawn in the West. For to acknowledgethat the moderate Rouhani is even now arming thosewho intend the murder o Israelis might get in the way o

the deal. We can now see that when the U.S. and the rest said they

would not tolerate a nuclear Iran, what they really meantwas that they would not tolerate its prevention.

How the West Was FooledMelanie Phillips, THE JERUSALEM CHRONICLE | March 20
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chemical weapons, a deal reached be-tween Putin and U.S. President BarackObama. Tis lef Assads regime inplace and prevented an American mili-tary operation at the last minute.

Iran and WorldPowers Grapple

JERUSALEM POST | March 19

I be very difficult to overcomedifferences between Iran and sixworld powers over ehrans uraniumenrichment program, though all par-ties aim to adhere to their -monthdeadline to reach a nuclear deal, asenior U.S. official said on Wednesday.

Its a gap (on enrichment) thatsgoing to take some hard work to get to

a place where we can find some agree-ment, the senior U.S. administrationofficial said afer the latest round onegotiations on Irans atomic programin Vienna.

Te official said the differencesover Irans planned Arak heavy-waterreactor, which Western powers earcould yield weapons-grade plutonium,remained similarly wide.

Iran and world powers lockedhorns on Wednesday over the ate o

a planned Iranian nuclear reactor thatcould yield plutonium or bombs, dip-lomats said, although ehrans oreignminister voiced optimism that theirJuly deadline or a deal is withinreach.

Te United States has called on Iranto scrap or radically alter the plannedreactor, but ehran has so ar rejectedthat idea while hinting it could modiy[the plant].

Hamas in Worst CashCrisis Since SeizingGaza

WASHINGTON POST | March 13

G H rulers have beenhit by the worst economic crisissince seizing the territory seven yearsago and ace growing discontent,even among core supporters, be-cause theres no sign o relie rom a

blockade enorced not only by Israelbut also by a suddenly hostile Egypt.

Hamass own surveys show itspopularity plummeting.

Gazas isolation is unlikely to easesoon. Instead, Israel and Egypt havetightened their border closures.

Israel sealed its only cargo cross-

ing with Gaza on Wednesday afer theIslamic Jihad group fired dozens orockets rom the territory at Israel.

Te game changer or Hamas wasthe Egyptian militarys ouster last Julyo then-President Mohamed Morsi.Te military-backed government inCairo has since banned Morsis Mus-lim Brotherhoodthe region-widemovement that also spawned Hamasand has shut down most o the smug-gling tunnels along the Gaza border,which were an economic lieline or

the Strip.Te Hamas governmentlost nearly

two thirds o its revenue as a result,said Omar Shaban, a Gaza economist.With the tunnels, Hamas earned about million a yearo an annualbudget o just under millionintaxes on the Egyptian imports, saidShaban.

Now the government is no longerable to pay ull wages to , civilservants and members o the security

orces. In recent months, governmentemployees have received only partialpayments.

For the first time in years, thereis even a ripple o speculation thatHamas might be driven rom powerby the growing difficulties o runninga government.

For now, Hamas appears to be justtrying to manage the crisis in hopesthe regional constellation will one daychange.

Power VacuumThreatens LibyaDEUTSCHE WELLE | March 13

D L Prime MinisterAli Zeidan is now in Malta, theMaltese government confirmed, on astopover toward a reported destina-tion o Germany.

Zeidan fled his country immediately

ollowing a vote o no confidencewhich ended his roughly -year termas prime minister o the North Aricancountry. Te hasty departure o the ex-diplomat rendered moot any attemptsto arrest him. Te charge? Corruption.

Zeidan, who during his term asprime minister was once kidnapped

and held or hours by armed militants,ailed in recent days to stop rebelsinthe countrys east rom controlling thesale o crude oil there.

Rebel leader Ibrahim Jathran nowappears to be the winner in the war onerves over the strategically vital oilharbors.

Te East Libyan Cyrenaica regiondiffers in history and culture rom thewest Libyan region known as ripoli-tania. Many East Libyans eel discrim-inated against by the capital, and they

are demanding a greater share o oilrevenues and more political autonomy,says Arturo Varvelli at the Instituteor International Political Studies inItaly.

TW I N B R I E F

nTurkey threatens closing theBosporus on Russian shipsurkish Prime Minister Recep ayyipErdoan sent a strong message to

Russia on March , saying he willclose the Bosporus to Russian vesselsi there is any harassment o Crimeasurkish minority, the atars. I sel-proclaimed Crimean authorities orso-called sel-deense fighters com-mit violence against Crimean atarsliving in the peninsula, urkey willbe orced to close the Bosporusorpassage o Russian ships, Erdoansaid on urkish television. Closingo the Bosporus, the only exit andentry point into the Black Sea, would

effectively mean cutting off Russianseaborne trade to the Mediterraneanas well as incapacitating the RussianBlack Sea Fleet. While at this time itis unlikely urkey will go ahead withsuch a move considering its currentdependence on Russia or percento its energy needs, Erdoans strongrhetoric indicates urkey is firmlysiding with the West on Russiastakeover o Crimea. Historically, bothRussia and urkey have been able to
https://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11188.30848.0.0/world/wmd/geneva-wont-stop-iran-from-exploiting-loopholeshttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11188.30848.0.0/world/wmd/geneva-wont-stop-iran-from-exploiting-loopholeshttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11264.31017.0.0/world/wmd/broken-promises-iran-ignores-the-geneva-dealhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11426.19.0.0/egypt-bans-hamashttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/10101.7.0.0/israel-vs-hamas-the-story-behind-the-conflicthttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/10975.30335.0.0/world/terrorism/lawless-libyahttps://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/1806/libya-ethiopia-in-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11451.19.0.0/turkey-threatens-closing-the-bosporus-on-russian-shipshttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11451.19.0.0/turkey-threatens-closing-the-bosporus-on-russian-shipshttps://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/1806/libya-ethiopia-in-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/10975.30335.0.0/world/terrorism/lawless-libyahttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/10101.7.0.0/israel-vs-hamas-the-story-behind-the-conflicthttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11426.19.0.0/egypt-bans-hamashttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11264.31017.0.0/world/wmd/broken-promises-iran-ignores-the-geneva-dealhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11188.30848.0.0/world/wmd/geneva-wont-stop-iran-from-exploiting-loopholeshttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11188.30848.0.0/world/wmd/geneva-wont-stop-iran-from-exploiting-loopholes

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EUROPE

overcome their differences and con-tinue a thriving dependent economicrelationship. However, cracks areemerging between the two nations. AsBible prophecy indicates, urkey willeventually shake off its dependency onRussia to orm an even closer strategicalliance with Europe.

n40 rockets fired into IsraelAnother week o bleak weather inIsraelcloudy with a chance o rock-ets. In some ways, this latest stormisnt much different than that whichbillowed in late prior to Opera-tion Pillar o Deense. Yet there is onemajor distinction: Tis time, Hamasis not initiating the deluge. Althoughthe Gaza Strip is a small sliver oland, it is home to several terroristgroups. While Hamas is considered

the dominant power and governor othe Strip, it aces growing challengesrom other even more radical groups.One such group claimed responsibilityor Wednesdays downpour o rockets.

West Plans for Russia

Military ThreatREUTERS | March 19

F planners in Wash-ington, London and Brussels, thesight o Russian orces pouring intotheir second neighbor in six years willoverturn two decades o strategic as-sumptions.

Te result o Russias seizure oCrimea rom Ukraine, ollowing its war with Georgia, could be a

modest reversal o years o Europeandeense cuts and a bigger U.S. militarypresence in the members ocentral and eastern Europe.

Since the end o the Cold War, theWestern alliance has shifed its at-tention to Aghanistan, Kosovo andcounter-piracy operations off the coasto Somalia, as well as Libya during its civil war. But by the time government leaders meet in Septem-ber in Wales, some people believe their

ocus will have returned to deterring

Moscow.In Washington on Wednesday ormeetings with senior officials, Secretary General Anders Fogh Ras-mussen accused Moscow o acting to

rip up the international rulebook, try-ing to redraw the map o Europe andcreating the most serious securitycrisis since the end o the Cold War.

While a major war in Europeremains extremely unlikely, it is nolonger unthinkable, say officials andanalysts.

Tis requires a complete reapprais-al o how we approach Russia, saysFiona Hill, U.S. national intelligenceofficer or Russia rom to ,who now heads the Europe program atthe Brookings Institution in Washing-ton. Putin has made it very clear heintends to reassert Russias sphere oinfluence. We dont have a strategyto deal with that.

Te potential flashpoint, however, isthe Baltic states. Tese ormer Soviet

republics are now in and there-

ore protected by Article o its treaty,which requires al l members to helpan ally under attack. Like Ukraine,they are home to significant Russianminorities.

Another diplomat put it morestrongly. I think people do under-stand continental wars in Europeare not over, he said on condition oanonymity. We will not be credible iwe simply continue as i nothing hashappened.

Reversing deense cuts is likely to

be a major topic o the sum-mit, British Foreign Secretary Wil-liam Hague told Sky News earlier thismonth. Some analysts are skeptical.

Frankly there is no appetite orincreasing deense spending, saidJudy Dempsey, senior associate atCarnegie Europe, noting that despiteHagues comments there were nosigns o Britain reversing its deensecuts.

Te most likely scenario, she said,

Proclaiming the strikewas in retaliation toIsraeli actions, the alQuds Brigadethemilitary branch o Pal-estinian Islamic Jihad()stood defiant inthe ace o Israeli re-

taliation. For this group,the more heavy-handedIsraels response thebetter. It wants anothershowdown with Israel.Te has operationsin Gaza and the West Bank, and re-ceives commands rom its headquar-ters in Damascus. It also has officesin Beirut, ehran and Khartoum.Although outnumbered by Hamas inGaza, it is by no means incapable oconducting its own operations there.

It proved as much this past week byraining down rockets and mortarson towns in southern Israel. Until theSyrian war began, Hamas was happyto take orders and unds rom Iran.

But Hamass reusal to support Iranin Syria dissolved this relationship.Since then, Qatar and urkey havereplaced Iran as Hamass sponsor. Tishad Iran searching or a Palestinianreplacement in its proxy war rom theGaza Strip. Enter Palestinian Islamic

Jihad. While it is unlikely that the will overthrow Hamas, the act that is now initiating terrorist attacks on Is-rael is evidence o the broken relation-shipbetween Hamas and Iran.

Palestinian militants from the Islamic Jihads

armed wing, the al Quds Brigades, were

behind the recent rocket attacks on Israel.

MAHMUD HAMS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
https://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11447.19.0.0/40-rockets-fired-into-israelhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11447.19.0.0/40-rockets-fired-into-israelhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/8136.6785.134.0/middle-east/a-mysterious-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/8136.6785.134.0/middle-east/a-mysterious-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/8136.6785.134.0/middle-east/a-mysterious-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/8136.6785.134.0/middle-east/a-mysterious-prophecyhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11447.19.0.0/40-rockets-fired-into-israelhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11447.19.0.0/40-rockets-fired-into-israel

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I most naked threat yet rom Russia, Deputy ForeignMinister Sergei Ryabkov told the Interax news servicethat Russia could raise the stakes in its conrontationwith the West by revising its stance on Iran.

Te threat has teeth. Russia is not only a veto-wielding

member o the UN Security Council and so able to blocknew sanctions or other action against Iran by the worldbody; it is also a member o the P+ negotiating groupworking to reach a nuclear compromise with Iran.

I Russia switches its stance rom pushing Iran, howeverlightly, toward abandoning its nuclear program toward tac-itly or overtly promising to support Iran regardless o thenuclear issue, the Wests strategy toward Iran could rapidlyunravel. Closer economic relations with Russia could helpprotect Iran rom the effect o renewed sanctions, and anytechnical assistance with either the nuclear or long-rangemissile components o Irans strategy could dramaticallyaccelerate Irans buildup.

Well have to see whether this threat is taken up andrepeated by other senior members o the Russian securityand political establishments, but i it is, we will have a clearsign that Russias goals arent limited to securing bases

in Crimea. Russia doesnt just want to win this crisis; itdoesnt want President Obama to escape rom it without acrushing public humiliation.

Linking the Ukraine crisis with the Iran negotiationis an American nightmare; it might just be a Russian

dream come true. President Obama has tried to separatethe nuclear question rom the geopolitics o the region.He has pursued a nuclear accommodation with Irandespite that countrys intense and unremitting questto dominate Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. hat separationhas unnerved U.S. allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia,who ear that the United States is preparing to let Irancontrol the region in exchange or what inevitably wouldbe a less than ironclad assurance that Irans nuclearprogram would never cross the threshold into makingactual bombs.

Te Obama strategy has always been a risky one; i Rus-sia shifs into active cooperation with Iran, it is hard to see

how the White House can keep hope alive. PresidentObama may have to choose between a shattering humilia-tion in the Black Sea, or a significantly greater risk o warin the Persian Gul.

Russia Warns: Well Play the Iran CardTHE AMERICAN INTEREST | March 19

was or countries to pool more resourc-es and aim or greater efficiency.

The Worlds 50Greatest LeadersCNN MONEY | March 20

I era that eels starved or leader-ship, weve ound men and womenwho will inspire yousome amous,others little known, all o them ener-gizing their ollowers and making theworld better.

. Pope Francis, age: , Pontiff,Catholic Church: Just over a year ago,a puff o white smoke announcedthe new spiritual leader o . billion

Roman Catholics around the world.In the brie time since, Francis haselectrified the church and attractedlegions o non-Catholic admirers byenergetically setting a new direction.He has reused to occupy the palatialpapal apartments, has washed theeet o a emale Muslim prisoner, isdriven around Rome in a Ford Focus,and amously asked, Who am I to

judge? with regard to the churchsview o gay members. He created a

group o eight cardinals to advise himon reorm, which a church historiancalls the most important step in thehistory o the church or the past centuries. Francis recently asked theworld to stop the rock-star treatment.

He knows that while revolutionary, hisactions so ar have mostly reflected anew tone and intentions. His hard-est work lies ahead. And yet signs oa Francis effect abound: In a pollin March, one in our Catholics saidtheyd increased their charitable giv-ing to the poor this year. O those, percent said it was due in part to thepope.

Russian Patriotism

SoaringWASHINGTON POST | March 20

T been going so wellor the average Russian lately. Lastyear, the economy only grew . per-centits poorest showing since theeconomic collapse. Tirty-five percento the nations wealth is in the handso just people. And its currentminimum wage comes out to just over

per month.But Russians have never elt better

about Russia.According to resh research out o

the Russian Levada Center, a respect-ed independent polling operation, the

number o Russians who think theircountry is a great power just hit percenta -year high. In Marcho , only percent o Russians eltthat way.

Levada Center also ound that moreRussians today view the United Statesnegatively than at any time since Aprilo , when this kind o pollingbegan. Te research, which surveyed, people between March -, saidthat percent o Russians view theUnited States negatively, up rom

percent in January.Nearly a quarter-century ago, in

, that figure was only percent.uesdays findings come at a time

when relations between the UnitedStates and Russia are at their mosttense in a generation. Over the vehe-ment objections o President BarackObama and the European Union,President Vladimir Putin signed atreaty on uesday annexing the penin-sula, which overwhelmingly voted this

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week to secede rom Ukraine. Crimeais our common legacy, Putin said. Itcan only be Russia today.

Putins popularity has also hit a-year high. According to Levada, hescurrently in possession o a percentapproval rating.

TW I N B R I E F

nRussia to annex CrimeaTe Republic o Crimea and Sevestapolwill join the Russia ederation, Rus-sian President Vladimir Putin said in aspeech to the Russian Duma, March .A ew days earlier, under the watchuleyes o Russia soldiers, Crimea held areerendum on whether or not it should

join Russia. Russia claims that . per-cent voted in avor. Both the U.S. andEurope promised that there would be

serious consequences i Russia ollowedthrough with the reerendum and an-nexation, but so ar little has happened.Russias dramatic actions are makingEastern Europe nervous.

ASIA

Crimea Crisis ImpactsEuropeVladimir Putin has shocked the world by his invasion of Crimea,

Ukraine. Europe greatly fears what Russia can and will do.GERALD FLURRY

Click to Play

I only in Crimea where Russian President VladimirPutin is playing with fire, but also in Eastern Ukraine.Te majority o the people in the economically powerulregion speak Russian and reject the new government inKiev.

In the eastern part o Ukraine, with several large citiesincluding Donetsk, Kharkiv and Dnepropetrovsk, pollsshow three quarters o those surveyed rejecting the popularrevolt in Kiev. Between and as many as percent o theresidents in this region say that Russian, and not Ukrai-

nian, is their primary language. At the same time, the Kremlin again began mobilizing

tank and artillery units. Some , men marched near theUkrainian border and paratroopers also perormed drills.It would be difficult to make a threat more clear.

In order to eliminate any doubts that Kiev, Brussels andWashington might have had about Moscows determina-tion, Putin conducted a major maneuver at the end oFebruary that involved , soldiers, tanks and fighter jets.

In addition, Moscow is openly betting on destabili-zation. Part o its effort to aid this process includes the

financing by the Kremlin o so-called patriot clubs andpro-Russian associations in Ukraine. During the protestsin Kharkiv and also some in Donetsk, voices o firebrandsshouting Russia, Russia, could be heardpeople who hadbeen bussed in rom neighboring regions in Russia. Tewatches they wore showed the time in Moscow, not that inKiev.

At the beginning o March, Pavel Gubarev, the head o thepro-Russian Peoples Militia o Donbass, declared himselthe peoples governor o the Donetsk region. Many

people write to me that they want to deend their homesagainst the ascists in Kiev. Tey have pistols, machine guns,protective shields, baseball bats and helmets, the leader said.It will be easy to bring the people to a boiling point. Teyhate the Ukrainian oligarchs and their political minions.

Gubarov has already given his marching orders orthe fight: Not one step back! Its a slogan well-known topeople in the region. It originates rom an order given byJoseph Stalin to Soviet soldiers on July in their battleagainst the Nazis.

Moscow Moves to Destabilize Eastern UkraineSPIEGEL ONLINE | March 18

Related: Russias Dark Rider
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Putin Looks to AsiaREUTERS | March 21

W P Vladimir Putinsigned a treaty this week annex-

ing Crimea to great anare in theKremlin and anger in the West, atrusted lieutenant was making his wayto Asia to shore up ties with Russiaseastern allies.

Forcing home the symbolism ohis trip, Igor Sechin gathered mediain okyo the next day to warn West-ern governments that more sanctionsover Moscows seizure o the BlackSea peninsula rom Ukraine would be

counterproductive.Te underlying message rom the

head o Russias biggest oil company,Rosnef, was clear: I Europe and theUnited States isolate Russia, Moscowwill look east or new business, energydeals, military contracts and politicalalliances.

Te Holy Grail or Moscow is anatural gas supply deal with Chinathat is apparently now close afer yearso negotiations. I it can be signed

Will Moldova Be the Next Ukraine?Sam Livingston | March 17

when Putin visits China in May, hewill be able to hold it up to show thatglobal power has shifed eastwards

and he does not need the West.Te worse Russias relations arewith the West, the closer Russia willwant to be to China. I China supportsyou, no one can say youre isolated,said Vasily Kashin, a China expert atthe Analysis o Strategies and ech-nologies () think tank.

A strong alliance would suit bothcountries as a counterbalance to theUnited States.

China overtook Germany as Rus-sias biggest buyer o crude oil this

year thanks to Rosnef securing dealsto boost eastward oil supplies via theEast Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipelineand another crossing Kazakhstan.

I Russia is isolated by a new roundo Western sanctionsthose soar affect only a ew officials assetsabroad and have not been aimed atcompaniesRussia and China couldalso step up cooperation in areas apartrom energy.

s Kashin said the prospects o

Russia delivering Sukhoi SU- fighterjets to China, which has been underdiscussion since , would grow.

China is very interested in invest-ing in inrastructure, energy andcommodities in Russia, and a declinein business with the West could orceMoscow to drop some o its reserva-tions about Chinese investment instrategic industries.

Russia-China trade turnover grewby . percent in to . billion .

Sechin, whose visit also includedIndia, Vietnam and South Korea, is aclose Putin ally who worked with himin the St. Petersburg city authorities

and then the Kremlin administra-tion, beore serving as a deputy primeminister .

Putin Signs CrimeanTreatyDEBKAFILE | March 18

A Crimeas reuni-fication reerendum as adhering

R deployment o troops in Crimea hasEastern European nations on edge. Concern is growingamong leaders that the crisis in Ukraine could spread.

Te Moldovan government is currently involved insigning a possible trade deal with the European Union that

Reuters says is similar to that which Ukrainian PresidentViktor Yanukovich dumped, sparking the crisis whichbrought him down.

And just like with Ukraine, Russia is using similar tac-tics to make sure the ormer Soviet Union state stays withinits camp. Moscow is now in the process o infiltratingthe last pro-European republics in its sphere o influence,writes Der Spiegels Christian Nee in an article titled Rus-sia ries to Woo Back Moldova.

According to Nee, Russia is now boycotting wine im-ports rom Moldova, one o the countrys largest exports.Additionally, Russia is threatening to prevent the nearly million Moldovans who work within Russia rom sending

money home to support their amilies.Russia has also threatened to cut off its natural gas

supply to Moldovaa move that would devastate the t inyagricultural nation.

Tis has been the Russian strategy or years: bullyingweaker and smaller nations into submission by threateningto cut off energy and destroy trade.

Last week, Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca alsoexpressed his deep ear o possible Russian involvement inan autonomous region o Moldova known as ransnistria.Tis region is being termed Moldovas Crimea.

Moldova has long aced its own secessionist threat in its

autonomous ransnistria region, which broke away in afer a brie war and also boasts a Russian military contin-gentmeaning the region is under de acto control o Mos-cow, International Business Times editor Palash Ghosh said.

I Moldova doesnt comply with Russias commands,could Vladimir Putin use ransnistria to get a ootholdover the nation, just like he used Crimea in Ukraine?

Putin made these goals clear in by invadingGeorgia. He is doing everything he can to prevent Georgia,Ukraine and all other ormer Soviet countries rom devel-oping closer ties with Europe.

Bible prophecy says these events will lead to the reuni-fication o an old superpower, the Holy Roman Empire.

(Request our ree booklet Germany and the Holy RomanEmpireto find out more.) With Russias rising might,some ormer Soviet nations will look to Germany or help.Although Germany is not in a position to act militarily justyet, watch or it to continue to ramp up its deense policy.Read Mr. Flurrys article Is Vladimir Putin the ProphesiedPrince o Rosh? or more inormation.
https://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/22/germany-and-the-holy-roman-empirehttps://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/22/germany-and-the-holy-roman-empirehttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11228.30958.161.0/asia/russia/is-vladimir-putin-the-prophesied-prince-of-roshhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11228.30958.161.0/asia/russia/is-vladimir-putin-the-prophesied-prince-of-roshhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11228.30958.161.0/asia/russia/is-vladimir-putin-the-prophesied-prince-of-roshhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11228.30958.161.0/asia/russia/is-vladimir-putin-the-prophesied-prince-of-roshhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/22/germany-and-the-holy-roman-empirehttps://www.thetrumpet.com/literature/22/germany-and-the-holy-roman-empire

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LATIN AMERICA/AFRICA

to all international norms, RussianPresident Vladimir Putin declareduesday, March , that Russia wouldhenceorth strongly deend its na-tional interestsagainst the Cold Wartactics practiced by the United Statesand the West. He complained Moscowhad sought dialogue with the West,

but was cheated all the time. Whenhe accused America o practicing the

law o the strong, he was cheered by

the packed lower house o the Russianparliament. Tis was the most acrimo-nious speech heard rom any Russianleader since the end o World War in .

He mocked the sanctions againstRussian and Crimean officials that theU.S. and European Union approved

Monday, saying that Moscow was usedto sanctions in the orm o dictates toall in with their policies.

Putin also joked that Russia wasready to take on orces inCrimea and Ukraine at any time.

Te session ended with Putin andCrimean leaders signing the treaty ormaking Crimea part o Russia with agrand flourish.

Venezuela MovesAgainst OppositionASSOCIATED PRESS | March 19

V agentson Wednesday arrested the opposi-tion mayor o the western city o SanCristobal, which has been a crucibleo anti-government resistance andspawned the current wave o protests.

Ten, hours later, the SupremeCourt announced that the oppositionmayor o San Diego, Enzo Scarano,would be removed rom his post andserve months and days in prison

or disobeying a March court orderto keep protesters rom barricadingstreets in his city.

Te mayors joined opposition leaderLeopoldo Lopez, who is being heldon charges o arson and conspiracy,as leading government opponents

jailed by President Nicolas Madurosadministration since the unrest beganlast month.

Te anti-government protests thathave shaken Venezuela or more thana month began in early February with

students in San Cristobal, an op-position stronghold along the borderwith Colombia. Since then it has seenintense clashes between authoritiesand protesters rustrated by soaringinflation, rampant violent crime andshortages o basic items such as cook-ing oil and toilet paper.

Radical IslamExplodes in NigeriaRichard Palmer | March 14

I group BokoHaram massacred more than ,people in northern Nigeria in Janu-ary and February alone, marking abloody surge in its ongoing campaigno violence.

We are in a state o war, NigeriasBono state governor, Kashim Shettima,said on February . He conceded that

Boko Haram are better armed andbetter motivated than our own troops.

It is impossible or us to deeat theBoko Haram.Last May, the government declared

a state o emergency in the three mainaffected states and ormed a joint taskorce to stop the terrorists. Althoughthey deployed over , soldiers,the attacks continued, and they havedisplaced over , residents romthe region.

Boko Haram has links to groupslike al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreband is working with one o its off-

shoots, the Signers in Blood, whichtook over Northern Mali and carriedout attacks in Algeria. Boko Haramsfighters are well-armed, and some be-lieve their weapons are rom Muam-mar Qadhafis regime in Libya and/or rom the volatile Central AricanRepublic, where Islamists looted mil-lions o weapons rom the governmentbeore being orced out.

As radical Islam becomes moredeeply entrenched across North Arica,

the region is breaking out into pock-ets o unrest and violence. AlthoughAmerica can no longer be relied on tocontrol these types o outbreaks, one

major power is watching this situationclosely and is beginning to take actionto secure its interests: Europe.

Uruguay TakesGuantanamo PrisonersMERCOPRESS | March 21

P J Mujica confirmedthat Uruguay has agreed with theUnited States to accept some prisonersheld in the much-criticized deten-tion center at the U.S. military base oGuantanamo Bay, but he also cau-tioned that everything has a bill.

Te Obama administration, whichwants to close the center used toimprison people captured afer theSept. , , attacks on the UnitedStates, has been talking to severalcountries about relocating inmates.It was an Obama election pledge toclose the Guantanamo base, which or

different reasons he has been unableto conclude.

Its a request or human rightsreasons, Mujica told journalistswhile attending an unrelated armingevent. Apparently the request is orfive prisoners or a period o two years.U.S. ambassador in Uruguay JulissaReynoso described the prisoners asnon-dangerous or the Uruguayansociety.

Mujica said Obama has asked a

Related: Could the Venezuelan Protests

Be Good News for the Vatican?

Related: The Ukraine Crisis Was

Prophesied
https://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11377.31332.0.0/europe/vatican/could-the-venezuelan-protests-be-good-news-for-the-vaticanhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11377.31332.0.0/europe/vatican/could-the-venezuelan-protests-be-good-news-for-the-vaticanhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11377.31332.0.0/europe/vatican/could-the-venezuelan-protests-be-good-news-for-the-vaticanhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11377.31332.0.0/europe/vatican/could-the-venezuelan-protests-be-good-news-for-the-vaticanhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11377.31332.0.0/europe/vatican/could-the-venezuelan-protests-be-good-news-for-the-vaticanhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesiedhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11323.31219.162.0/asia/russia/the-ukraine-crisis-was-prophesied

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bunch o countries, some countriesi they can take some and I told himyes.

Tey are coming as reugees andthere will be a place or them in Uru-guay i they want to bring their ami-lies, said Mujica. I was imprisonedor many years and I know how it is,

added the ormer guerrilla who spent years in prison beore and during

his countrys - dictatorship.I they want to make their nests

and work in Uruguay, they can re-main in the country.

Asked i he had requested the U.S.government something in exchange,Mujica said, I dont do avors ree, Ipass on the bill, but he immediately

added this has to be done because ithas to be done.

Busqueda also mentioned thatMujica consulted on the Obama initia-tive with Cubas Raul Castro and otherundisclosed Latin American presi-dents during the recent Celac summitin Havana. Apparently Castro agreedwith the proposal.

ANGLO-AMERICA

Related: EU to Crackdown on IllegalImmigration

Putin Takes Crimea,Mocks AmericaTHE TRUMPET DAILY | March 19

STEPHEN FLURRY

One hundred years on rom World War , the situationbetween Russia, Europe and the West looks startlinglyamiliar.

Click to Play

opinion polls began to report that theAmerican people were experiencingwhat media shorthand came to callatigue with the affairs o the world.Te U.S. should mind its own busi-

ness. Te America-is-atigued pollingfit with Mr. Obamas stated goal tolead rom behind. A close observer oAmerican politics also could noticethat Republican politicians beganto recalibrate their worldview inwardto accommodate the atigue in theopinion polls.

We are o course discussing Vladi-mir Putins path to the orced annexa-tion o Crimea. And possibly in time amove on the independence o Ukraine,

Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Kazakhstanor Moldova. Tis narrative has onemore point o Putin demarcation: Syria.

Last September, every oreignchancery in the world concluded thatthe United States would bomb BasharAssads airfields with omahawk mis-siles in reprisal or killing nearly ,Syrians with chemical weapons, includ-ing sarin gas. Vladimir Putin placeda bet. He suggested to the Americanpresident that in lieu o the U.S. bomb-ing Assads airfields, their two nations,

in concert, could remove all o Syriaschemical weapons. Mr. Obama ac-cepted and stood down rom bombingAssad. Six months later Vladimir Putininvaded and annexed Crimea.

Tis moment is not about BarackObama. By now we know about him.Tis is about Vladimir Putin and thesel-delusions o Western nationsand their amous atigue. VladimirPutin is teaching the West and espe-cially the United States that atigue is

American FatigueSyndrome

WALL STREET JOURNAL | March 19

B time the second Worldrade Center tower collapsed

on Sept. , , the whole worldwas watching it. We may assumethat Vladimir Putin was watch-ing. Mr. Putin, a quick calculatoro political realities, would see thatsomeone was going to get hit or this,and hit hard.

He was right o course. Te Bushpresidency became a war presidencythat day, and it pounded and pursued

the Islamic undamentalists o al Qa-eda without let-up or apology.

In , the American peopleelected a new president, and VladimirPutin, a patient eline, would have

noticed that President Obama in hisspeeches was saying that Americanpower would be used in concertwith other nations and institutions,such as the United Nations. Whatwould have made Mr. Putins eye jumpwas the decision by George Bushs suc-cessor not just to leave Iraq but with-out leaving a residual U.S. militarypresence to help the new governmento Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Sometime in the first Obama term,
https://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3268.1664.0.0/europe/germany/eu-to-crackdown-on-illegal-immigrationhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3268.1664.0.0/europe/germany/eu-to-crackdown-on-illegal-immigrationhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3268.1664.0.0/europe/germany/eu-to-crackdown-on-illegal-immigrationhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/trumpet_daily/1444/putin-takes-crimea-mocks-americahttps://www.thetrumpet.com/trumpet_daily/1444/putin-takes-crimea-mocks-americahttps://www.thetrumpet.com/trumpet_daily/1444/putin-takes-crimea-mocks-americahttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3268.1664.0.0/europe/germany/eu-to-crackdown-on-illegal-immigrationhttps://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3268.1664.0.0/europe/germany/eu-to-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration

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not an option.

Te solitary but thrilling worldo Vladimir Putins mind is the oneinhabited by the Assads, Saddams, binLadens, Kims, Qadhafis and Khomei-nis o the world, and when it reallyruns out o control, or is allowed to, bya Stalin, Hitler or Mao. Whether onemans grandiosity will burst acrossborders is not about normal logic. It isabout personal power and orcing theobeisance o other nations.

Vladimir Putin re-proves thatsometimes a bad person gains control

o the instruments o national power.Teir populations do nothing or cant,because they are disarmed by thugswith overwhelming firepower. Or, ason Russian now, they are mari-nated in anti-U.S. propaganda. odayeven second-rate megalomaniacs gainaccess to high-tech weaponry, includ-ing missiles and nuclear bombs.

Running alongside these oldrealities is a new phenomenon, surelynoticed by Mr. Putin: Te nations

o the civilized world have decided

their most pressing concern is incomeinequality. Barack Obama says so, asdoes the International Monetary Fund.Western Europe amid the Ukraine cri-sis is a case study o nations redistrib-uting themselves and perhaps into impotence.

Fatigue will allow global disorderto displace years o democraticorder. I the U.S. doesnt lead, thestrongmen win because or them itseasier. Tey dont lead people; theycoerce them. Ask the millions ree or

now in the old countries o the IronCurtain.

Military DatabaseTracks CiviliansWASHINGTON EXAMINER | March 21

A ticket, traffic citationor involvement in a minor ender-bender are enough to get a persons

name and other personal inormation

logged into a massive, obscure ederaldatabase run by the U.S. military.Te Law Enorcement Inorma-

tion Exchange, or LinX, has alreadyamassed . million law enorcementrecords ranging rom criminal histo-ries and arrest reports to field inorma-tion cards filled out by cops on the beateven when no crime has occurred.

LinX is a national inormation-sharing hub or ederal, state and locallaw enorcement agencies. It is runby the Naval Criminal Investigative

Service, raising concerns among somemilitary law experts that putting suchdetailed data about ordinary citizensin the hands o military officials cross-es the line that generally prohibits thearmed orces rom conducting civilianlaw enorcement operations.

Tose ears are heightened byrecent disclosures o the NationalSecurity Agency spying on Ameri-cans, and the allegedly spying onCongress, they say.

A to Russia hasbeen criticized as pathetically weak.Tere is a reason or such great weak-ness. I you understand that reason,you will understand why America willnot stop Russia. And you will under-

stand why Americas superpower daysare a thing o the past.

On March , Russian presidentialadviser Sergei Glazyev made oanded comments sug-gesting that i the U.S. took real act ion against Moscow, itwould hurt Americas economy as much as Russias.

He is probably right. With Americas debt-bloatedeconomy barely keeping its head above water, a trade warincluding Russia and Europe could drag America and theglobal economy back into recession.

But it was Glazyevs second remark that probably cap-tured American policy makers attention the most. He saidthat i sanctions went too ar, Russia should dump U.S.

government bondsall billion worth. billion is a significant amount. America would

survive, but it would hurt.However, Russia isnt alone.America owes so much money to so many people that i

Russia were to signal it was dumping its U.S. debt holdings,other smaller investors might decide that they want outfirst. Te proverbial run on the bank becomes reality.

Still America might survive.

But then America still needs to consider how muchmoney it owes China. China has thrown its support behindRussia. And economically, America doeshave to consider

very careully what China might do.Te recently released an interview with ormer U.S.

reasury Secretary Hank Paulson. It describes how during

the economic meltdown, a high level Chinese officialtold him that Russia had contacted China about jointlyattacking Americas financial system by selling debt bonds.China rerained that time.

Te Bible, which is perhaps the oldest book on geopoli-tics, warns about the dangers o debtespecially debt owedto oreigners. Te stranger that is within thee shall get upabove thee very high; and thou shalt come down very low.He shall lend to thee, and thou shalt not lend to him: heshall be the head, and thou shalt be the tail. Moreover allthese curses shall come upon thee, and shall pursue thee,and overtake thee, till thou be destroyed; because thouhearkenedst not unto the voice o the Lord thy God, to keep

his commandments and his statutes which he commandedthee (Deuteronomy :-).

All that debt has allowed America to live like a king, butnow it is making it a slave to the world. We are not ree romear because our precarious debt load means our enemiescan threaten to destroy the dollar and cripple our economy.

Americas superpower days are ending. Allies be aware.Ukraine, you are on your own.

Follow Robert Morley: Twitter

Russia Threatens to Crash the Dollar?

ROBERT MORLEY
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W nose knows might as well be limitless, re-searchers suggest.Te human nose can distinguish at least trillion di-

erent odors, a resolution orders o magnitude beyond theprevious estimate o just , scents, researchers report

today in Science.Scientists who study smell have suspected a higher

number or some time, but ew studies have attempted toexplore the limits o the human noses sensory capacity. Ithas just been sitting there or somebody to do, says studyco-author Andreas Keller, an olactory researcher at theRockeeller University in New York.

Donald Wilson, an olactory researcher at the New YorkUniversity School o Medicine, says the findings are thrill-ing. He hopes that the new estimate will help researchersbegin to unravel an enduring mystery: how the nose and

brain work together to process smells.A human nose has around types o scent receptors.

When the smell o coffee wafs through a room, or exam-ple, specific receptors in the nose detect molecular compo-nents o the odor, eliciting a series o neural responses that

draw ones attention to the coffee pot. But many details othat sequence are still unknown.

Its hard to organize odors, Wilson says. Researcherscan group scents into categories, but the relationship be-tween those categories is not clear; unlike colors or sounds,smells do not all along a clear continuum.

Tose questions remain or uture study. But the newfindings may help put to rest at least one longstandingassumption, Keller says. My hope is that this helps todispel the myth that humans have a bad sense o smell,he says.

Human Nose Can Detect 1 Trillion OdorsNATURE NEWS | March 20

Eugene Fidell, who teaches militarylaw at Yale Law School, called LinX

domestic spying.It gives me the willies, said Fidell,

a member o the Deense Depart-ments Legal Policy Board and a boardmember o the International Societyor Military Law and the Law o War.

Fidell reviewed the Navys LinXwebsite at the request o the Washing-ton Examinerto assess the proprietyo putting such a powerul databaseunder the control o a military policeentity. Clearly, it cannot be right thatany part o the Navy is collecting tra-fic citation inormation, Fidell said.

Tis sounds like something rom athird-world country, where you havepowerul military intelligence watch-ing everybody.

Te military has a history o spying

on Americans. Among the groups subjected to mil-

itary spying in the name o protectingmilitary acilities rom terrorism wasa band o Quakers organizing a peacerally in Florida.

LinX was originally supposed tohelp protect naval bases romterrorism.

More than , agencies par-ticipate, including the and otherDepartment o Justice divisions, theDepartment o Homeland Securityand the Pentagon. Police departmentsalong both coasts and in exas, NewMexico, Alaska and Hawaii are inLinX.

Te number o records in the sys-tem has mushroomed rom about million in to more than timesthat number today.

More detailed narratives and thingslike radio dispatch logs and pawnshop records dont show up in thosedatabases, but are available in LinX,he said.

Participating agencies must eedtheir inormation into the ederal datawarehouse and electronically update itdaily in return or access.

Why LinX wound up in the , amilitary law enorcement agency, is notclear. Current officials could notexplain the reasoning, other than to sayit grew out o the departments needor access to law enorcement recordsrelevant to criminal investigations.

Since the passage o the Posse Co-mitatus Act o , it has been illegal

or the military to engage in domesticlaw enorcement except in limitedcircumstances, such as quelling insur-rections.

A recent example o mission-creepgone awry is the Treat and Local Ob-servation Notice, or , programcreated by the Air Force at the same

time LinX was launched.Like LinX, s purpose was

to create a network or inormation-sharing among ederal, state and localpolice agencies that could be used tohelp protect military acilities.

In , media reports showed was being used to spy on anti-war groups, including the Quakers. was disbanded in .

Te history o these programs isthat they tend to metastasize and thatthere is mission creep that involves

gathering ar more inormation thanis needed, said Healy.

In general, what you see in theseprograms is they start out very narrowand they expand beyond the limitso their original logic. Repeatedlythroughout American history, whatstarts small becomes larger, moreintrusive, more troubling, he said.

OTHER NEWS

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MARCH 21 201412THE TRUMPET WEEKLY

Although its a pipe dream, securinga deal with Iran is one o the Obamaadministrations chie oreign policyambitions.

oday, afer months and years ocompromise and capitulation, Amer-ica and Europe (the P+) are on the

cusp (at least this is what ehran hasled them to believe) o securing what they believe to be ahistoric deal with Iran. Afer a preliminary deal struck lastNovember in Geneva, the P+ anticipates a ully fledgeddeal over the next ew months.

Tat is, unless Vladimir Putin strikes first.Russias relationship with Iran is complex. Te Kremlin

isnt thrilled about the idea o a nuclear Islamist state to itssouth, or Irans sponsorship o Islamist terrorists in Russiasperiphery, particularly in the Caucasus. On the other hand,beriending Americas enemy provides certain benefits,chie o which is significant leverage over Washington.And as Western efforts to punish Putin or his behavior in

Ukraine mount, the Kremlin is seeking leverage by revital-izing its riendship with Iran.

In February, Irans ambassador to Russia announcedthat the two nations were working on an oil-or-goods deal.Under the deal, Iran will send , barrels o oil a dayto Russia in return or Russian goods and even Russianhelp building nuclear power plants. On March , Iransofficial news agencies reported that Russia had agreed tobuild two new , megawatt nuclear power stations.Tese will be in addition to the Bushehr acility, whichRussia also built.

Te reports made no mention o how much oil Iran

would be sending to Russia in exchange. But as o Octo-ber last year, Iran was exporting under , barrels ocrude oil per daydown rom nearly . million in .Selling another roughly , barrels to Russia would bea big dealalmost doubling its oil exports. For ehran, theaddition o a couple o extra nuclear power plants is alwaysa good thing too. Russias support o Iran dilutes Westernefforts to marginalize ehran, and reduces the incentive onIran to negotiate with the West.

Te deal with Iran hasnt been finalized, so theres plentyo time or Russia to back down i the West concedes inUkraine. But Moscows timely dalliance with Iran is a clearwarning to America and Europea reminder that the

Kremlin has the power to tank Western negotiations withIran.

America has gotten the message too. We all hope thatthe incredibly difficult situation in Ukraine will not createissues or this [Iranian] negotiation, a U.S. official toldReuters on March . We hope that whatever happens inthe days ahead, whatever actions that we in the interna-tional community take depending upon the decisions andthe choices that Russia makes, that any actions that Russiasubsequently takes will not put the negotiations at risk, hesaid.

Gary Samore, a ormer White House coordinator

or arms control, recently warned that just the disunitybetween Russia and the rest o the negotiating team couldlead to at least the appearance, i not the reality, o disar-ray within the P+. Iran could find this disconcerting,and make it eel more able to walk away rom the nuclearnegotiations, he said.

Tis isnt to say that Western negotiations with Iran de-pendon support rom Russia. Te Kremlin has never been

a genuine supporter o negotiations with ehran. However,America and Europe do require the Kremlin to be aloorom the negotiations and willing to leave Iran alone tonegotiate. An active Russia-Iran axis, with the Kremlinactively supporting ehranand gaining influence in theprocesswould complicate peace negotiations enormously.Russia and Iran are ormidable oes individually, but a seri-ous alignment between the two would be a nightmare.

Buying oil or Iran is only the start o what Russia coulddo. For example, back in , Russia agreed to sell Iran anS air deense system. Moscow pocketed Irans cash, butnever delivered the goods. It could change that now. GivingIran one o the worlds best surace-to-air missiles would

make any attack on Iran much more difficult.Its possible Russias relationship with Iran may be part

o the reason Washington hasnt responded more aggres-sively to Putins belligerence in Ukraine. Is the Obamaadministration more concerned about peace with Iranthan with Americas treaties with Ukraine or conrontingRussia?

Te actor to watch in al l this is Europe. Europe doesnthave the breathing room that America has with Iran andRussia. Te Continent isnt separated rom either powerby massive oceans. Europe has significant financial andenergy assets at stake in both Iran and Russia. Europe is

within range o Irans ballistic missiles, and Islamist terror-ists are embedded throughout the Continent. For Europe,the behavior o the regimes in Moscow and ehran are osupreme importanceand E !

Russias invasion o Ukraine shows that the Kremlindoes not respect the sovereign borders in Eastern Europe.Europeans are well aware o their history with Russia,and what can happen when either side doesnt respect itsborders with one another. For Germany and Europe, re-sponding to Russia, at the very least showing itsel capableo displaying equal power and orce, isnt a luxury. It is anecessity, and one it will have to ulfill soon.

From the outset o the crisis in Ukraine the Trumpethas warned that Europe is the place to watch. Te dra-matic developments in Ukraine areforcingthe Continentto address its many issues and figure out a way to coalesceinto a orce capable o conronting Russia, Iran and othercrises coming its way. Separately, Iran and Russia alreadydeeply concern Europe. You can be sure the developmento a more significant axis between these two will intensiyEuropes anxieties and increase the pressure on Europesleaders to create the Catholic-inspired, German-led unitedEuropean superpower that we have long orecast.

Follow Brad Macdonald: Twitter

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