UNCLASSIFIED 12-9-2015 NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО Relations OTAN Russie Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A Joint Intelligence School,

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО

Relations OTAN Russie


Relations OTAN Russie

Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A Joint Intelligence School, CFIARStrasbourg, France


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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010

Toward a true strategic and Toward a true strategic and modernised partnershipmodernised partnership

Creation of a common space of peace, security Creation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area


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Corner StoneCorner StoneCorner StoneCorner Stone



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Corner Stone

Dialogue and cooperation in the field of security with Russia, founded upon the reciprocal respect of each other’s interests, is one vital parameter to security.

This dialogue has to be honest, but non naïve, and firm, and able to create a both constraining and acceptable structure to Russia and to NATO.

Moreover, only dialogue and cooperation can contribute to bridge the gap between NATO and Russia and particularly help moving beyond cultural differences, especially in political culture.


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NATO-Russia Relations

Outline

1- On the way to a true strategic partnership based on common security interest ?

2- However still profound disagreements

3- Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?


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-I- On the way to a true strategic partnership

based on common security interest?



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End of the “no business as usual”

Foreign Ministers of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) met in Corfu, Greece, on

27 June 2009

Decision to Decision to cooperate cooperate

on areas of on areas of common common interestsinterests

AfghanistanAfghanistan

CounterterrorismCounterterrorism

Nuclear proliferationNuclear proliferation

PiracyPiracy

Climate changeClimate change

Military cooperationMilitary cooperation

Vidéo 2


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Creation of a common space of peace, security Creation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area


Upgrading the efficiency of the council

NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010November 2010


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Since 2002, a New Quality

Joint declaration on NATO-Russia Relations: A New Quality, by Russian and Allied heads of state and government, at their summit meeting in Rome on 28 May 2002.


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NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)

The NRC is a mechanism for consultation, consensus-building, cooperation, joint decision, and joint action

In the NRC, Russia and Allies meet as equals and take decisions “at 29”

Principle of Principle of ConsensusConsensus

But no Veto But no Veto for Russiafor Russia


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NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)

NRC: a solid structure for resuming / promoting the NATO-Russia relations


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• NATO-Russia Council NATO-Russia Council • Conventional arms control regime in EuropeConventional arms control regime in Europe• STARTSTART• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the goals of the NPTin accordance with the goals of the NPT• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security ChallengesSecurity Challenges• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future framework for cooperationof the future framework for cooperation• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territoryterritory• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics TrainingTraining• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011


NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund

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Launched Launched on 2 March on 2 March

20112011

Maintenance and Maintenance and repair capacityrepair capacity

To the Afghan To the Afghan Air Force Air Force

helicopter fleethelicopter fleet

Airlift and air power are essential elements of Airlift and air power are essential elements of the Afghan counterinsurgencythe Afghan counterinsurgency


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• NATO-Russia Council NATO-Russia Council • Conventional arms control regime in EuropeConventional arms control regime in Europe• STARTSTART• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the goals of the NPTaccordance with the goals of the NPT• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security ChallengesChallenges• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future framework for cooperationframework for cooperation• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territoryRailway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territory• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics TrainingExpand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Training• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011• Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative Airspace Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative Airspace Initiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)Initiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)• Counter-piracyCounter-piracy


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NRC MR Work Plan 2012NRC MR Work Plan 2012

- Logistics- Combating Terrorism-Search and Rescue at Sea - Counter Piracy -Theatre Missile Defence - Military Academic Exchanges

- Logistics- Combating Terrorism-Search and Rescue at Sea - Counter Piracy -Theatre Missile Defence - Military Academic Exchanges

NATO-Russia Council Chiefs of Defence approve the Work Plan for 2012, 18th January 2012

NATO-Russia Council Chiefs of Defence approve the Work Plan for 2012, 18th January 2012


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Outline





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-II- However still profound disagreements



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““East is East, and West is West, and never the East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet.”twain shall meet.”

Rudyard KiplingRudyard Kipling

??

??


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CRISIS

The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisis The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly

between Russia and the US.between Russia and the US.

Profound divergence in Profound divergence in national interestsnational interests


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« All over these years Russia « All over these years Russia has been put in front of already has been put in front of already accomplished facts: Kosovo, accomplished facts: Kosovo, withdrawal from the antimissile withdrawal from the antimissile treaty, the deployment of treaty, the deployment of antimissile sites in neighbouring antimissile sites in neighbouring countries, or even the endless countries, or even the endless enlargement of NATO »enlargement of NATO »

Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08, Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08, «NovaiaGazeta»«NovaiaGazeta»


Threat Perceptions …

“NATO enlargement has created more democratic stability on Russia’s western border than at any time since Napoleon”.

Ronald D. AsmusJanuary/February, 2008

“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on our borders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat to the security of our country”.

Vladimir PutinNATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008


Drawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz Karim

Missile DefenseMissile Defense


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Georgia’s pivotal role in the global energy market

Analysis of the current crisis with Russia: a conflict of national

interests


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The politically highly charged BTC & SCP pipelines

Analysis of the current crisis with Russia A conflict of national interests

Analysis of the current crisis with Russia A conflict of national interests


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Reasons for the Crisis / conflicting national

interests

Georgia’s pivotal role

in the global energy market

A key element of US Foreign policy

#

Russia wants Central Asia oil and gas to be exported via its own territory


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Russian President’s State-of-the-nation address to parliament, 12 Nov 2009

A new security architecture:A new security architecture:

« European Security Treaty » proposed to « European Security Treaty » proposed to encompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO encompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO

Indivisibility of security Indivisibility of security


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Analysis of the crisis with Russia: a conflict of national

interests

NATO’s / “Western” points of view

versus

Russia’s points of view


Threat Perceptions …

“NATO enlargement has created more democratic stability on Russia’s western border than at any time since Napoleon”.

Ronald D. AsmusJanuary/February, 2008

“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on our borders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat to the security of our country”.

Vladimir PutinNATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008


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NATO’s / “Western”points of view

Disproportionate use of force

Violation of sovereignty of Georgia

Violation of territorial integrity of Georgia

Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)

Destruction of vital infrastructure

Everything had been planned & calculated for long (“frozen conflict”, Russian citizenship policy)

Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict


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NATO’s / “Western”points of view

Russia is a country, not democratic, that conducts conducts a policy of influence on the countries that were a policy of influence on the countries that were

in its former empire disrespectfully of their in its former empire disrespectfully of their sovereigntysovereignty

General reasons General reasons



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“Russia wanted to respect the World order, but the Georgian attack…”

“Protection of South Ossetian population”

“Georgia’s irresponsible & criminal regime” (11th Sep 01)

The war was organized by the US Criminal equipment and training of Georgian troops by the

US Georgian attack of August with the consent of the US

Not alternative to recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict


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NATO’s use of force without the consent of the UNSC

Disproportionate use of force

Violation of sovereignty of Serbia

Violation of territorial integrity of Serbia

Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)

Destruction of vital infrastructure

Recognition of Kosovo (planned & calculated for long)

Concerning KosovoConcerning Kosovo



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Chaos of international system (international law)

Another conception of the world Another civilization Own original model Orthodoxy

General reasonsGeneral reasons


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Outline





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-III- Which ingredients for successful future

NATO-Russia Relations?



Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?

To understand Russia

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NATO to understand Russia and its identity

The immensity of the Russian territory The Mongol yoke Imperial identity Autocracy , no democratic tradition Orthodoxy, the Third Rome The soviet impact Fear of Encirclement Need for security Need to be treated as the equal of the United

States


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To restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power status


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Russian Minorities Russian Minorities in Former Soviet in Former Soviet

Republic & Republic & Separatist RegionsSeparatist Regions

Stalin's policy of nationalities

The Russian Empire: multiethnic

LE MONDELE MONDE

The role of History


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Samuel Huntington (1927-2008)

“Clash of Civilizations” thesis

The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (1996)

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Russia’s National Security Strategy until

2020 « Consolidation of efforts of federal executive bodies, State government bodies …

to ensure national security ».

« In a competion for energy resources, it cannot be ruled out that military force could be used for resolving the emerging problems ».

« NATO’s eastward expansion is a crucial factor in the relationship with NATO ».

« Russia is prepared to develop relations with NATO … the depth and essence of which will be determined by NATO’s preparedness for taking into account Russia’s legitimate interests …, respecting international law, …, new humanistic purposes and functions ».

« to build a strategic partnership with the USA based on coinciding interests ».


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NATO, to take into account Russia’s interests?

“The European Union should develop a soft security concept, to replace the hard security concept,

represented by NATO” (Adrian Severin, Euro-parliamentarian, Europe-Russia Economic Forum, May 25-27 2009)

=The new NATO Strategic Concept


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Creation of a a common space of peace, security Creation of a a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area


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Russia, to take into account NATO’s

interests?

Toward a new Russia?Toward a new Russia?

Can Russia change?Can Russia change?


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Modernisation of RussiaModernisation of Russia




Presidential Address of 12 December 2012

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Russia – General features

Largest country in the world

Nuclear power

Wealth of natural and energetic resources

145 millions people (2002 Russian Census)

Population Growth Rate (2006): -0.39%

Births: 1,476,200 (2006) / Deaths: 2,165,700 (2006)

More than 6 millions inhabitants lost since 1991

A multinational country inhabited by representatives of more than a hundred nationalities and ethnic groups.

Imperial structure

Strategic partnership with …?

Future?


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!!


CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONCONCLUSION


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Problems of communication between “the West” and RussiaProblems of communication between “the West” and Russia

Different cultures and perceptionsDifferent cultures and perceptions

The NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and The NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly between Russia and the USmore particularly between Russia and the US


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Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?


Documents

UNCLASSIFIED 12-9-2015 NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО Relations OTAN Russie Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A Joint Intelligence School,