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Urban Flood & Climate Change ----information from APWMF and SIWW. Jinping LIU Hydrologist Typhoon Committee Secretariat. The Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF) June 28, 2010. Jointly organized by MEWR and PUB of Singapore , and in cooperation with APWF. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Urban Flood & Climate Change
----information from APWMF and SIWW
Jinping LIUHydrologistTyphoon Committee Secretariat
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The Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF)
June 28, 2010 Jointly organized by MEWR and PUB of Singapore , and in cooperation with APWF.
Attended by Ministers and water leaders from 15 countries.
Themed ‘Water Security—Good Governance and Sustainable Solutions’.
Articulated the region’s water issues, policies and solutions.
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Singapore International Water Week (SIWW)
June 28 ~July 1, 2010. Inaugurated with 2nd World Cities Summit (WCS).
Themed ‘Sustainable Cities: Clean and Affordable Water’ for SIWW.
Themed ‘ Liveable & Sustainable Cities for the future’ for WCS. Around 10,000 participants
from more than 100 countries and regions.
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Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Today’s presentation
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Urban/rural population for less and more developed region
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Urbanization - Tsurumi River Basin
1975
1995
Population increased by 1.7 million in 40 years.85% of the river basin urbanized.It has become a typical urban river.
1958 Urbanization Rate
Natural
Urban
1975
1995
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Influence of Urbanization on Flood Risk
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Rainfall pattern is changed.
Annual Precipitation in Macao in the period of 1901~2008
Heavy rainfall in a city of Japan (1990~1999)
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Hydrological response is changed.
•Less infiltration•More runoff•Higher velocity•Shorter travel time•Higher peak flows•More frequent channel forming flow
•Lower low flows = Extremes
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Flow Increase & Time of concentration Decrease
Present
Past
Time
Disc
harg
e
Inte
nsity
mm
/hr
duration
1:10 yr1:50 yr
20 60
frequency
70 mm/hr
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Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Today’s presentation
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Heavy Precipitation Events: Frequency increases over most
areas
Anomalies (%) of the global annual time series defined as the percentage change of contributions of very wet days from the base period average.
Kobe, Japan2008
IPCC AR4(Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo )
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It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.
IPCC AR4
> 90%
Projected changes in extremes:
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Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
CGCM3.1(T47)CSIRO-Mk3.5
INM-CM3.0PCM
CNRM-CM3MRI-CGCM2.3.2
GISS-AOMECHO-G
ECHAM5/MPI-OMCSIRO-Mk3.0GFDL-CM2.1
MIROC3.2(medres)CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T63)GFDL-CM2.0
MIROC3.2(hires)IPSL-CM4
Araki & Koike, 2008
Average=1.2
(from 17 models)
Ratio of Daily 10year Probable Rainfall between 50 years later according to A1B and the current, from 17
models
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Discharge(m^3/s)
T
Current Design Rainfall
Future Design Rainfall under
Climate Change
Design HydrographDesign HydrographDesign RainfallDesign Rainfall
1 1.2
HydrologicalModel
Current Climate
Climate Change
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Current Flood safety level
Target Flood safety level
Uncertainty
Basin wide measures1:80
1:150
1:80
1:150Future under climate change
Current DesignFuture Design
underClimate Change
Design Flood Control Design Flood Control
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Climate Change Impacts on Flood Control Planin Indonesia
10year Probable flood Current Climate
10year Probable flood 50 years later
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Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk
Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk
Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change
Today’s presentation
• In responding to Climate Change, investment for prevention under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.
• The best option is to take an adaptive approach that build climate resilience into development strategies.
• Adapting to What?– As the future is unknown, adaptation should be
flexible, incremental and capable of incorporating changes based on new knowledge.
– It should be a continuous process guided by sustainability concerns and address multiple needs.
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Quantifying uncertainty
Climate models
Multi-model ensemble (MME)
Down-scaling
Basin-scale prediction of quantity & quality
Water quantity and quality prediction
flood
ordinary water
drought
ground water
Information
Storage
Treatment
Current facility, plan, management
Flood control system
Water allocation &
cost
Environ-ment
Human life
Industry
HumanBehavior
EconomicBehavior
DroughtDisaster potential
FloodDisaster potential
Impact assessm
ent
Filed survey
Early warning
Allocation policy
Land use
Adaptation options
etc.
Innovative technology
- Flood control- quality control
Decision m
aking
Monitoring evaluation
implem
entation
End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation
IntegratedObserved Data Sets
ProcessStudy
Scientific approach Engineering Approach Socio-economical approach
(Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo )
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Rotterdam Climate Adaptation Strategy 1.0Rotterdam Climate Adaptation Strategy 1.0
Ada
ptiv
e B
uild
ing
Acc
essi
blity
Urb
an W
ater
Sys
tem
City
Clim
ate
Floo
d M
anag
emen
t
CLIMATE PROOFRotterdam 2009
CLIMATE PROOFROTTERDAM 2025
CLIMATE PROOFROTTERDAM ....
Monitoring
Action
Assessment
Implement
Roa
d m
ap
knowledge
Arnoud Molenaar
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Concluding Remarks• Climate Change, Urbanization and Urban migration
are the greatest challenges for urban flood disaster risk reduction.
• Flexible adaptive measures - adaptive adaptation - should be mainstreamed. Innovative holistic approaches based on risk assessment are needed to achieve this.
• Urban flood is not isolate issue. UFRM should be integrated with holistic urban system.
• Urban flood is a kind of resources. UFRM is not to simply discharge flood out side of city, but to promote the beneficial and abolish the harmful.
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ThanksThanks
“The Shapers of New Asia”
“They include YOU and ME….”