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Vision 2050The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path
By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe
INFORSE-Europe
Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.orgInternational Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe
is a network of 55 NGOs.
INFORSE-Europe is supported by EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others
Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002
Vision 2050 - Background
The world energy system: is beyond the environmental limits does not provide basic energy needs as light and
healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s population
To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century
We should provide all with basic energy needs and allow developing countries to develop, including use of cheap energy supply
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Environmental Limit: Climate Change
To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC century, we must limit global CO2 emissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century = 35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC)
The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of 3.5ºC.
A Global Sustainable Scenario
CO2 (MtC)/y
0100020003000
4000500060007000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
After 2000: 240 GtC
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
1990-2000:64 GtC
Scenario: Energy Services Industrialised countries Developing countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Transport
El.+mechanical
Medium+high t.
Low temp.
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Energy Services per capita
Energy Demand Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
several times before 2050: new generations of equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology learning can drive prices down.
One exception is houses. In EU houses could use only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2
For transport is expected increase in efficiency from todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions together with electrical driven vehicles.
Energy service demand will increase, also in industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.
Primary Energy (TWh/y)Industrialised countries Developing countries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Nuclear
Fossil
Biomass
Hydro
Solar
Wind
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Energy Supply
Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000 MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe less afterwards
Large wind power development programs are cost-effective: extra costs today will be paid back with future cost reductions due to technology learning. Some sites give cost-effective electricity today.
Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then grow 25% pr. year
Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in totalBiomass can be used as transport fuel
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Renewable Energy Potential
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Potential Scenario
Gig
awat
t co
ntin
ues
cons
umpt
ion
Solar centrals
PV on houses
Biomass
Hydro
Windpower on farmland
Wind, off-shore etc.
52200 GW
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nuclear
Fossil tot.
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Example – DenmarkPrimary Energy Supply for Denmark (PJ)
Coal Oil
Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
30
20
50
Statistics VisionProposal
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Electricity Supply - Denmark
Fossil
Waste
Biomass
PV
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2050
Proposal (Scenario) VisionStatistics
Electricty Production( kWh/person pr. year)
Wind/hydro/waves
Economy - DK scenario until 2030
The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate
It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel
prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than business as usual.
expected lower growth in energy services: need for decoupling of economy and energy services
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Example - Slovakia
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Today Possibleconsumption
2050
RE potential
PJ/
year
Electricity
Heat
Biomass-Heat+fuel
Liquids-transport
Gas
Coal-black/brown
OBS: Preliminary data
Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials:
Heat-fuel reneweables - 256 PJ
Energy crops
Wood
Biogas Straw
Solar thermal
Geothermal INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Electricity - renewables 101 PJ
Hydro
Wind
PV
OBS: Preliminary data
Energy Infrastructure Electricity grid still needed, as today Electricity grid needs more regulation with many
decentralised production units ”intelligent grid” Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &
PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark probably chemical storage after 2030
New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps, international energy trade
Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier Because of large learning rates for the new
technologies, minimal costs.
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
More on Infrastructure
decentralised power production, to use local renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)
more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030
gas demand stable until 2025, then decline hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to
replace gas where local renewables insufficient some gas networks can be used for hydrogen heat networks to remain in densely built areas
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Vision 2050simple spread-sheet model
Based on energy balance Trends for
RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval
2002 Denmark, Slovakia and EU2003 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)
TABLE 1 Fuel
Year 2000Oil products Coal &
Coke
Natural
gas 1)
PJ Crude oilOrimul-sion
Petro-coke
Fueloil+waste oil
Diesel+heatingoil
Petrol+kerosene Jet fuel LPG
Refinary gas
Other oil products
Primary Production 764,53 310,30Klimakorrektion (forbrug) 0,86 0,57 5,15 0,01 0,08 0,05 3,53 6,59Refineries (conversion to end products) - 346,27 69,78 139,19 99,76 21,59 8,06 15,56 0,25Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights) - 416,62 33,54 5,67 - 61,31 9,26 - 14,89 - 18,56 - 4,66 23,35 158,43 - 120,68Net storage, reuse and statistical difference - 1,64 0,61 1,12 11,05 1,97 2,97 0,06 0,10 - 1,50 7,49 - 3,11Total Net supply - 0,00 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,57 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10Oil, coal and gas sector
Exploitation own consumption, flaring 25,03Refinaries own consumption 1,27 13,63 10,07
Electricity and District heating stations 1,60 1,09 0,04 2,83District heating sector Geothermal stations
Condensing power stations 0,33 0,05 20,30 0,01Cogeneration stations 35,01 4,55 0,31 1,98 136,67 90,89RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal)HydrogenGrid losses etc. 0,15
Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes 12,03Transport Road 68,66 86,08 0,53
Rail 3,08 0,01Domestic aviation 0,05 1,94Navigation 1,51 3,37 0,00Defense 0,37 0,00 1,16
Production Farming etc. 0,01 2,03 24,62 0,14 0,23 1,23 3,81Manufacturing 6,76 8,34 8,95 0,10 1,83 11,16 33,46Construction 0,04 6,39 0,03 0,17 0,21
Service sector Private 0,01 0,26 3,38 0,02 0,06 4,29Public 0,01 0,12 2,00 0,01 0,06 2,09
Housheholds 0,01 0,04 33,29 1,40 0,70 0,05 30,33Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy 6,79 12,34 154,10 87,85 3,09 3,58 12,43 74,19Total Consumption 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,56 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10
Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5) 80.000 92.000 78.000 74.000 73.000 73.000 65.000 56.900 95.000 56.900CO2-emissions (million ton CO2) 2,80 0,62 1,57 11,51 6,41 0,23 0,23 0,89 16,10 10,99
TABLE 4Consumptions parameters
Net Heat consump Heat. Eff.
Fin. heat consump
Shareoil
Sharegas, coal, waste
Share
RE7)Shareelectricity
Sharedistrict h.
Sharetotal
mill. m2 Factor MJ/m2 Factor PJ % PJ % % % % % %Private service 49,9 100 0,49 100 24,4 83% 29,3 13% 20% 2% 3% 63% 100%Public service 38,9 100 0,36 100 14,0 90% 15,6 14% 13% 4% 2% 66% 100%
Households 1 (multifamily) 77,4 100 0,50 100 39,0 93% 42,1 6% 11% 0% 2% 80% 100%
Households 2 (detached) 165,0 100 0,56 100 93,2 80% 116,3 28% 22% 17% 6% 27% 100%
Farming, etc.8) 100 100 37,5 72% 13% 9% 6% 100%
Manufacturing8) 100 100 82,3 32% 54% 6% 8% 100%
Construction 8) 100 100 6,85 97% 3% 100%Total 330,0
Heated floorspace6) / ProductionSpecificconsumption