Voter Turnout POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to

Voter TurnoutVoter TurnoutPOLS 125: Political Parties & ElectionsPOLS 125: Political Parties & Elections

“A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.”

— Bill Vaughan

The Vanishing VoterThe Vanishing Voter

Generational replacementGenerational replacement

Lack of competitive electionsLack of competitive elections

Weakening party loyaltyWeakening party loyalty

Unsavory campaignsUnsavory campaigns

Negative newsNegative news

Patterson calls declining voter turnout “the longest Patterson calls declining voter turnout “the longest sustained downturn in American history.” What sustained downturn in American history.” What factors have caused it?factors have caused it?

This is all the more disturbing because This is all the more disturbing because turnout turnout shouldshould have increased… have increased…

Increasing educational attainmentIncreasing educational attainment

Removal of poll taxes and literacy testsRemoval of poll taxes and literacy tests

Simplified registration proceduresSimplified registration procedures

Voter Turnout in 2008Voter Turnout in 2008

In November 2008, In November 2008, 131 million votes131 million votes were cast for were cast for president. president.

Is that number high or lowIs that number high or low?

It depends on how It depends on how turnout is turnout is measuredmeasured……

How Should We Measure How Should We Measure Turnout?Turnout?

The The voting-age populationvoting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens and (VAP) includes non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they provide the lowest turnout levels because they underestimate actual turnout.underestimate actual turnout.

The The voting-eligible populationvoting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the voting- (VEP) starts with the voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.

The number of The number of registered votersregistered voters includes only those includes only those legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of voter turnout.voter turnout.

Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:

131 million votes cast

231 million voting age citizens= 57% voter turnoutVAP

VEP 131 million votes cast

213 million voting eligible citizens= 62% voter turnout


REG 131 million votes cast

172 million registered voters= 76% voter turnout

Fraud?

If voter turnout is low, compared to what?

Compared to other countriesCompared to other countries

Compared to historic rates of voter Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in the United Statesturnout in the United States

* It

aly

Icela

nd

Austr

ia

* B

elg

ium

Neth

erlands

* A

ust

ralia

Denm

ark

Sw

eden

Port

ugal

Germ

any

* G

reece

Isra

el

Norw

ay

Fin

land

Spain

Irela

nd

United K

ingdom

Fra

nce

Luxem

bourg

Sw

itzerland

US

A

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent of voting age population (VAP), all elections since 1945

Voter Turnout in the United States Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to Other CountriesCompared to Other Countries

Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008Elections, 1828-2008

1828

1832

1836

1840

1844

1848

1852

1856

1860

1864

1868

1872

1876

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of voting eligible population (VEP)


1828

1832

1836

1840

1844

1848

1852

1856

1860

1864

1868

1872

1876

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

50

60

70

80


The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the right to vote

The 19th Amendment

grants women the right to vote


1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 200840

45

50

55

60

65



Increasing Voter TurnoutIncreasing Voter TurnoutOPTION #1:OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.

OPTION #2:OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.

OPTION #3: OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little differencepolicy preferences, so it makes little difference

OPTION #4:OPTION #4: Do something! Do something!

Voting by mail Voting by mail Voting earlyVoting earlyInternet votingInternet votingElection day registrationElection day registration

Does Low Voter Turnout Does Low Voter Turnout MatterMatter??

Smaller, more highly educated, less Smaller, more highly educated, less representative electorate?representative electorate?

Larger, less well educated, more Larger, less well educated, more representative electorate?representative electorate?

Should we prefer a:

Increasing Voter TurnoutIncreasing Voter TurnoutOPTION #1:OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.

OPTION #2:OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.

OPTION #3: OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little differencepolicy preferences, so it makes little difference

OPTION #4:OPTION #4: Do something! Do something!

Voting by mail Voting by mail Voting earlyVoting earlyInternet votingInternet votingElection day registrationElection day registration

Why Don’t People Vote?Why Don’t People Vote?

Institutional contextInstitutional contextMotor-VoterMotor-Voter

Compulsory votingCompulsory voting

Election Day registrationElection Day registration

Voting by mailVoting by mail

Internet votingInternet voting

Motivational strategiesMotivational strategiesPersonal canvassingPersonal canvassing

Social pressureSocial pressure

Enduring personal traits and Enduring personal traits and psychological orientationspsychological orientations

Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USASocialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA

How Does Motor-Voter Work?

1. Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration

2. Mail application for voter registration

3. Application in person at certain government agencies, including public assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with disabilities

Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory and unfair obstacles to voter registration.

As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they use currently for registering voters:

The Problem with Motor-VoterThe Problem with Motor-Voter

Voter Registration

Voter Turnout

Motivation and/or interest

in politics

Why Don’t People Vote?Why Don’t People Vote?

Institutional contextInstitutional contextMotor-VoterMotor-Voter

Compulsory votingCompulsory voting

Election Day registrationElection Day registration

Voting by mailVoting by mail

Internet votingInternet voting

Motivational strategiesMotivational strategiesPersonal canvassingPersonal canvassing

Social pressureSocial pressure

Enduring personal traits and Enduring personal traits and psychological orientationspsychological orientations

Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USASocialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA

Vote MobilizationVote MobilizationEfforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” Efforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” drives, or drives, or GOTVGOTV..

Obama goes door-to-door in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat knocked on doors in the Iowa capital Saturday talking up his opposition to the war in Iraq. At one stop, Obama got a warm welcome from a woman who said the visit might persuade her to attend the Democratic presidential caucus in January, "I'm flabbergasted that he's here knocking on my neighborhood door," Jody Degard told reporters after the visit from the Illinois senator.

Voter Turnout as a Political Voter Turnout as a Political StrategyStrategy

With narrow margins of

victory, and an electorate split

evenly down the middle,

political parties increasingly

battle over voter turnout.

Vote SuppressionVote SuppressionBallot and machine shortages on Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in selected precincts.Election Day in selected precincts.

Delays in sending absentee ballots.Delays in sending absentee ballots.

Vote challenges.Vote challenges.

Disqualification of provisional Disqualification of provisional ballots.ballots.

Purges of voter registration lists Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter caging).(e.g., voter caging).

Misdirection of voters to polling Misdirection of voters to polling places.places.

Negative advertising designed to Negative advertising designed to undermine morale.undermine morale.

Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?Fraud?

Nashawna Prude, 9, with a family photo that includes her grandmother, Kimberly, second from left, jailed for more than a year for voter fraud.

Kimberly Prude was convicted of voting while on probation, an offense that she attributes to confusion over eligibility.

The Debate over Photo IDsThe Debate over Photo IDs

““It's outrageous to hear my colleagues sit there and say that the Republican It's outrageous to hear my colleagues sit there and say that the Republican Party is embarking on a move to suppress the vote of ethnic minorities Party is embarking on a move to suppress the vote of ethnic minorities throughout the country. That is blatantly false. I am not going to sit here and by throughout the country. That is blatantly false. I am not going to sit here and by my silence give any credence to that assertion. That's ridiculous." my silence give any credence to that assertion. That's ridiculous."

——Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA)Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA)

Documents

Voter Turnout POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to