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7/29/2019 WCF 20130212
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Commodity Futures Weekly ReportTuesday, February 12th, 2013
Volume 3 Issue 6
Technical Analysis
Highlights
1
J eremy Berkovits, CMT(Compliance)
(212) 879-0596
David Truffelman(Analyst)
(919) 267-3974
Aaron Uitenbroek(Analyst)
(646) 535-1012
.
This report is copyrighted by i10Research. It is authorized for subscribers ONLY. Do not photocopy, otherwise copy or further
distribute this information. i10Researchstrictly prohibits these practices. i10Research employs tracing technologies and, for the
protection of all subscribers, will prosecute violators.
S&P 500 E-mini maintains its upward bias with supports at 1490 / 1450 -70. While above these levels,
longs on any pullbacks to support are favored as buying opportunities.
Nasdaq-100 E-mini is attempting to break out of consolidation and longs are favored above 2760 for a
move likely to the upper end of resistance at 2822. Falling back below 2750 would indicate a failure and
target the opposite side of the consolidation down at 2700.
Mini Russell 2000 continues to move higher with longs favored on any pullbacks to support at 891 or 900.
Lower support is at 871 72 and only a drop below 865.4 would negate the bullish bias.
Euro FX Longs remain favored above the trend line support targeting a retest of recent highs at 1.3700
with further resistance/target at 1.3885 in extension. Near-term price action is vulnerable to a further
retracement down to 1.3285 should price fail to break above 1.3490.
30-yr Bonds continue to work lower and are in position to favor shorts while below 14413 targeting a
move to the 14000 level. If price can regain 14413 and move higher, it would be back into an area of
rotation and the bearish scenario would be put on hold.
Light Sweet Crude Oil bounced from support at 94.95 96.25 targeting a continued move higher to 99.62
/ 100.42 / 101.78. Only a drop below 94.95 would suggest the recent uptrend is transitioning to rotational or
downward.
Brent Crude remains bullish while above 115.00 .70. We favor longs while above this level targeting a
move higher toward the next resistance / target at 119.39 - .43.
Gold remains within a zone of rotation. Support remains at 1613 29 and shorts should look to take
profits into this zone and reposition if price manages to push lower. Rotational longs are a consideration if
support proves to be holding.
Copperis respecting the upward sloping trendline support. A test of support at 3.65 - .70 is a spot to
consider longs for a continuation of the uptrend and test of the 3.8395 highs.
Wheat continues to move lower and make progress toward our target / support at 696 708. The bias will
remain downward while below 756.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]7/29/2019 WCF 20130212
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Table of Contents
Page 3: Trade Update Summary
Page 4: E-mini S&P 500, E-mini Nasdaq-100
Page 5: Mini Russell 2000, Euro FX
Page 6: 30-yr Bond, 10-yr Note
Page 7: 5-yr Note, 2-yr Note
Page 8: Light Sweet Crude Oil, Brent CrudePage 9: Natural Gas, Heating Oil
Page 10: Gold, Silver
Page 11: Copper, Corn
Page 12: Soybeans, Soybean Oil
Page 13: Soybean Meal, Wheat
Page 14: Live Cattle, Lean Hogs
Page 15: About i10 Research
Page 16: Disclaimer
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S&P 500 E-mini maintains its upward bias with supports at 1490 / 1450 -70. While above these levels, longs on any
pullbacks to support are favored as buying opportunities.
ES Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
NQ Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Nasdaq-100 E-mini is attempting to break out of consolidation and longs are favored above 2760 for a move likely to the
upper end of resistance at 2822. Falling back below 2750 would indicate a failure and target the opposite side of the
consolidation down at 2700.
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Mini Russell 2000 continues to move higher with longs favored on any pullbacks to support at 891 or 900. Lower support is
at 871 72 and only a drop below 865.4 would negate the bullish bias.
TF Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
6E Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Euro FX remains in an uptrend since making lows at the end of July. Longs remain favored above the trend line support
targeting a retest of recent highs at 1.3700 with further resistance/ t arget at 1.3885 in extension. Near-term failure to regain
1.3487 would target a retracement back to the lower ascending trend line around 1.3285.
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30-yr Bonds continue to work lower and are in position to favor shorts while below 14413 targeting a move to the 14000
evel. If price can regain 14413 and move higher, it would be back into an area of rotation and the bearish scenario would be
put on hold.
ZB Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
ZN Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
10-yr Notes remain rotational while above 130230. A break lower in earnest, below 130230, would favor short positions
targeting 129000. A move over 132155 would instead favor longs.
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5-yr Notes have probed below their long-standing range which is a bearish indication. Price is not likely to move down in
earnest unless it can move below the recent 123320 low. While above this level, price is likely to continue to be two-sided.
ZF Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
ZT Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
2-yr Notes remain in consolidation between support at 110040 and resistance at 110095. There is higher resistance at
110115 and 110260. We expect continued two-sided action while within this long-standing range.
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Light Sweet Crude Oil bounced from support at 94.95 96.25 targeting a continued move higher to 99.62 / 100.42 / 101.78.
Only a drop below 94.95 would suggest the recent uptrend is transitioning to rotational or downward.
CL Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
BRN March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Brent Crude remains bullish while above 115.00 .70. We favor longs while above this level targeting a move higher toward
the next resistance / target at 119.39 - .43.
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Natural Gas is rotational while between 3.232 and 3.50. A move beyond either of these levels would favor a continuation to
next support or resistance, which is 3.10 on the downside and 3.646 on the upside.
NG March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
HO Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Heating Oil nearly touched our target at 3.26. Price is likely to become rotational or to pullback from this level. We favor
taking profits on longs on tests to the middle 3.20s and repositioning on a decline to support at 3.15 - .168. A drop below
3.15 would favor shorts back toward 3.096.
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Gold remains within a zone of rotation. Support remains at 1613 29 and shorts should look to take profits into this zone and
reposition if price manages to push lower. Rotational longs are a consideration if support proves to be holding.
GC Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
SI Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Silverbroke lower from its triangle consolidation and if moving back to lower support at 29.86 30.39. Price is likely to turn
rotational between this support and the recent break down area near 31.535.
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Copperis respecting the upward sloping trendline support. A test of support at 3.65 - .70 is a spot to consider longs for a
continuation of the uptrend and test of the 3.8395 highs.
HG Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
ZC March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Corn is in position to favor shorts while below 715 targeting a retest of the low at 678 and then lower toward 650. Only a
move back above 715 would put the bearish bias on hold.
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Soybeans moved lower from resistance and reached our initial target at 1400 -1450 for the pullback. This zone between
1351 and 1508 remains an area of rotation. A move beyond one of the extremes would signal a larger directional move.
ZS Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
ZL March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Soybean Oil moved lower from the test of resistance at 53.31 and has now reached support at 50.85, which extends down to
49.12. This is a zone of rotational trade and two-sided price action is expected to develop.
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Soybean Meal moved aggressively lower, negating the bullish, upward bias. The near-term is pointed solidly downward and
support at 405.5 could potentially lead to rotation back higher. A breach of this level would be a further bearish development
and favor shorts for move to the 392.4 low and lower.
ZM Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
ZW March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Wheat continues to move lower and make progress toward our target / support at 696 708. The bias will remain downward
while below 756.
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Live Cattle is threatening a break below 129.35, which would favor shorts into 127.15. If price can hold above this support
evel, we would expect a continuation of the rotational price action back toward 133.7.
LE April Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
HE April Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay
Lean Hogs broke below support and shorts are now favored targeting a move to next support at 84.025. A move back above
87 would put this bearish bias on hold.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the
research analysts responsible for the content of this report, Jeremy Berkovits, DavidTruffelman and Aaron Uitenbroek. The research analysts further certifies that he receives no
compensation that is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained within this report.
This publication does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation
of any transaction to buy or sell any securities or any instruments or any derivatives of the
securities mentioned herein or to participate in any particular trading strategies. Although the
information contained herein has been obtained from recognized services, and sources
believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions,
estimates or projections expressed in this report may make assumptions regarding economic,
industry and political considerations and constitute current opinions, at the time of issuance,which are subject to change without notice.
The products or securities mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states
or countries. Their value and any income which they may produce may fluctuate and / or be
adversely affected by interest rates, exchange rates and other factors.
This information is being furnished to you for informational purposes only, and on the condition
that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. Any recommendation
contained in this report is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or inferred to be,
investment advice, as such investments may not be suitable for all investors. When preparing
this report, no consideration to ones investment objectives, risk tolerance or other individual
factors was given; as such, as with all investments, purchase or sale of any securitiesmentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. By virtue of this publication, neither the
Firm nor any of its employees shall be responsible for any investment decisions.
Before committing funds to ANY investment, an investor should seek professional advice. Any
information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended
to provide tax advice, or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to
consult an independent tax professional for advice concerning their particular circumstances.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance,
and no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made regarding future
performance.
The authors of this report may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or
sell the securities or derivatives (including options) of the companies mentioned herein.
Additional information relative to securities, other financial products, or issuers discussed in
this report is available upon request.
Disclaimer & Analyst Certification
i10 Research 2013
All Rights Reserved
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