What will be next after IT?

資訊科技之後將會是什麼 ?

Outline of Presentation

• What is IT ?• Does IT matter?

• IT commoditization• Enrollment in Computer Science

• IT serve as the basis for competitive advantage in global competition for every country

• The impact to University education with IT• Discussion

什麼是資訊科技 ( IT) ?

• Information

• Information Technology

• Information systems

• Information systems management

• Information management

什麼是資訊科技 ( IT) ?

• Efforts have been made to distinguish between IT and IS.

• IT (information technology) is manifested in computing, storage and communication networks.

• IS (information systems) are organizational processes involved in the management and use of IT.

資訊科技的貢獻

Initial Development… 1967University Networks… 1981Regional Networks (NYSERNET)… 1988Early ISP,s… 1992World Wide Web… 1995

$ Trillio

ns

$ Trillio

ns

MicroprocessorPCs

Client/Server

Software

Data

Communications

Internet

無所不在的資訊科技• Computer science today is poised to do all these

amazing things,“

• We have tremendous nice products on cellular phone, computer game, multimedia , digital TV etc.

• Mobile e-learning, mobile entertainment, (Any time, any where )

• However, …..

Evolution of Infrastructural Technologies

• Railroad,

• Steel.

• Electricity

• Highway

• WWW

WWW

• 1989 :Tim Berners-Lee proposed the World Wide Web

• 1993 :The University of Illinois National Center for Supercomputing Applications produced NCSA Mosaic--|the first full-fledged browser.

• 1994 :Jim Clark and Marc Andreessen created the Netscape program

• 2000 :WWW size was estimated at over 1 billion pages.

Tim Berners-Lee

• ｗｗｗ發明人 (2005/01/29) 發明全球資訊網 (WWW) 後又放棄專利權，使眾人享用WWW 的伯納斯李，被遴選為大不列顛最偉大人士的代表。

Tim Berners-Lee

為何 IT 無關緊要• evolution of information technology in

business like railroads and electric power. • For a brief period, they are being built into the

infrastructure of commerce for forward-looking companies to gain strong competitive advantages.

• As they become ubiquitous - they become commodity inputs.

• They become invisible; they no longer matter.

什麼時候 IT 無關緊要 ?

• As IT’s core function-data processing, storage and transmission have become cheaper, more standardized, and more easily replicable, their ability to serve as the basis for competitive advantage has steadily eroded.

• 隨著功能越強、價格越低、越來越規格化， IT 已從公司藉以略勝對手一籌的專屬科技，變成所有競爭者所共同擁有的基礎科技。

• IT 雖是競爭力所必備，但它的競爭優勢其實已在消褪當中

IT doesn't matter• IT 無關緊要 ?

• IT 已經過氣 ?

• IT 有什麼明天？

• IT 末日 ?

IT commoditization ( 商品化產品 )

• An Almost Perfect CommodityThe Fate of Computer Hardware and Software

What is commodity ?

• a commodity is an undifferentiated product whose market value arises from the owner's right to sell rather than the right to use.

什麼是 commodity ?

• Commodities were things of value of uniform quality.

• They were produced in large quantities by many different producers; the items from each different producer are considered equivalent.

• It is the contract and this underlying standard that define the commodity, not any quality inherent in the product.

Examples of Commodity

• Oil, wheat,

• electricity,

• sulfuric acid

• bandwidth, RAM chips,computer processor cycles,

• emissions credits.

Wheat is a commodity• Wheat from many different farms is pooled. • Generally, it is all traded at the same price; • wheat from Some uniform standard of

quality must necessarily be assumed. • There may be various standards leading to

different pools:.• Markets for trading commodities can be

very efficient

CAR vs IT product

• Difference between car and computer

• Car with IT services (GPS, DVD, DTV, Cellular phone, PDA, computer )

Branding( 品牌 )• Producers often attempt to 'de-commodify'

their products by branding them.

• Branding attempts to make similar products from different producers more distinguishable.

Jobs for CS• After hovering under 2% in the late 1990s,

the jobless rate for computer scientists and systems analysts grew to 5.4% in the last three months of 2003.

• It then jumped to 6.7% in the first quarter of this year — outstripping the overall national unemployment rate of 6.1%.

Enrollment in Computer Science Classes Plummeting

• Enrollment in computer science programs at major universities is shrinking rapidly.

• It's the same scene on campuses across the country, as enrollment in computer science programs has dropped sharply — down 23% from 2002 to 2003.

• Nationwide, new enrollments are at 1996 levels — and few expect them to rebound soon.

資訊科技的影響

•Globalization 全球化 • 變局：截然不同的新世界

Outsourcing( 委外 )

• Brazil• Russia• India • China• Eastern Europe • other countries. • lower-wage foreign guest workers under

the H1-B and L-1 visa programs.

金磚四國（ BRICs ）• 巴西（ Brazil ）、俄羅斯（ Russia ）、印

度（ India ）和中國（ China ），合組其英文起首字母，我們稱之為 BRICs ，金磚四國

全球新趨勢• 高盛證券經濟研究團隊預言：二○五○年，

世界經濟強權會劇烈洗牌，新六大經濟體的面孔將變成：中國、美國、印度、日本、巴西、俄國。

• 屆時，現有的六大工業國（Ｇ６），只剩美國與日本， 英、德、法、義將被淘汰出局，金磚四國成為新經濟強權。

Ironical Moment• It was projected that the number of jobs

for computer software engineers will grow 46% from 2002 to 2012.

• Ironically, the enrollment dip is occurring just as companies prepare to ratchet up hiring, prompting worries about a potential shortage of domestic tech workers when engineers from the Class of 2007 graduate.

Does IT matter?

• Contexts dependent• IT does not matter in North American and

western Europe contexts.

• IT matters in other parts of developing world or in economies that comprised the former Soviet Republic or China.

• IT does matters in global competition for every industry.

Does IT Matter?

Service Service Service Services Services Services

What will be next after IT?

• food, dressing, living, transportation, health and Services with IT

• education and entertainment Services with IT (Digital contents, E-learning )

• Biology( genetic engineering, medicine)

潛在競爭力的主要因素• 「潛在競爭力」顯示各國是否已具備將來

實現經濟成長的環境。• 形成潛在競爭力的主要因素：• 一、國際化；二、企業；三、教育；• 四、金融；五、政府；六、科學；• 七、基礎設施；• 八、資訊科技（ＩＴ）。

國家潛在競爭力調查 • 二○○四年的國家潛在競爭力排行榜，仍

由美國居首，日本維持著排名十五，台灣則由上次的排名第廿二向上挺升一名

• 在排行榜中名列第廿一韓國的潛在競爭力最新排名第十九，比前次挺升四名。

• 評價因素之一的「ＩＴ」，韓國的排名由二○○○年的第十八躍升至第四，令人刮目相看。

Higher Education and the WTO

• Higher education is increasingly seen as a commodity.

• Higher education commercialization has now reached the global marketplace.

• Higher education institutions everywhere are subject to global trends—massification

The impact To Higher Education

• Students are now "customers,“.

• A school's reputation is its "brand," each department a "revenue center."

搶救大學？！•市場、管理和科技是否已經取

代了宗旨、價值和真理？

The impact To Higher Education with IT services

• Digital contents

• Digital library

• Digital learning

• Digital University

Discussion

• Ubiquitous IT Service• Product with Better IT Services

• This includes Education with better IT services.